BUOY ROUNDUP
Tuesday, March 31, 2026 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (3/31) in North and Central CA surf was thigh to maybe waist high and lightly warbled and mushed and not very rideable. Protected breaks were flat and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was rarely to waist high and mostly less and clean, soft, short and weak. In Ventura County the surf was occasionally up to thigh high on the sets and weakly lined up and soft and clean early. Central Orange County had sets up to waist high and lined up and mostly closed out dumping just off the beach and clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had some sets at thigh to maybe waist high high and weakly lined up and mushed but clean with some texture on top. North San Diego had sets at waist high and lined up with good form and clean but weak. Oahu's North Shore had sets at head high to 1 ft overhead and somewhat lined up but still a bit raw from northeast trades and uneven. The South Shore was flat and clean. The East Shore was getting northeast windswell with waves head high to 1 ft overhead and chopped from brisk northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (3/31) California was getting no swell of interest. Hawaii was getting locally generated northerly windswell from a cutoff low pressure system that developed north of Hawaii Sat-Sun (3/29) producing 19-20 ft seas aimed south. A gale is forecast off Oregon on Wed (4/1) with 19 ft seas aimed southeast. And maybe a stronger one to develop while tracking from off North Japan fading before reaching the dateline Fri-Sat (4/4) with 27 ft seas aimed southeast targeting Hawaii but from a long ways away. Down south a gale is developing southeast of New Zealand Mon-Wed (4/1) producing up to 37 ft seas aimed well northeast with 26-27 ft seas tracking east across the rest of the South Pacific through Fri (4/3). Perhaps another gale is to develop over the Central South Pacific on Sat-Sun (4/5) with up to 30 ft seas aimed east-northeast. The transition to Summer continues.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (3/31) the jetstream was mostly split with 2 stream running parallel to each other from Japan to the dateline then separating more east of there with with the northern branch tracking over the Eastern Aleutians then falling southeast with winds building to 150 kts with the 2 streams nearly consolidating while pushing into Central CA with winds also 150 kts there. A weak trough was starting to develop in the portion of the jet off the Pacific Northwest starting to offering some support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to push onshore over North CA on Wed (4/1) producing weather there. But to the west the jet is to spit even more over the width of the North Pacific offering no clear support for trough or gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (4/3) wind energy is to build in the northern branch of the jet off Japan being fed by 120-130 kt winds offering some support fro gale development building to 140 kts on Sat (4/4) continuing to support for gale development before fading on the dateline Sun (4/5). By Mon (4/5) the jet is to nearly disintegrate over the Northeast Pacific. On Tues (4/7) a steep nearly pinched trough is to build 600 nmiles northwest of Hawaii being fed by 140 kts winds offering some limited hope.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (3/31) no swell of interest was hitting CA .But windswell was hitting Hawaii from a low pressure system previously north of the Islands (see Hawaii Low below).

Over the next 72 hours a low pressure system is to producing seas off Oregon targeting California (see California Low below).

And on Thurs PM (4/2) a gale is to start developing just off North Japan producing northwest winds at 40-45 kts with seas building from 26 over a tiny area at 39.75N 152E aimed southeast. On Fri AM (4/3) northwest winds to build in coverage at 40 kts with seas 27 ft at 40.25N 157.25E aimed east. In the evening the gale (4/3) is to lift northeast some with northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 27 ft at 40.5N 160.75E aimed east. On Sat AM (4/4) the gale is to lift north some with northwest 35 kts streaming off Kamchatka and seas 26 ft at 40N 166.5E aimed east. In the evening northwest winds to fade from 30 kts and seas 23 ft at 45N 169.75E aimed southeast. On Sun AM (4/6) northwest winds to fade in coverage from 30 kts over the dateline with seas 21 ft at 42.5N 175.25E aimed southeast. Something to monitor relative to Hawaii.

Hawaii Low
A local low pressure system developed 900 nmiles north of Hawaii on Sat AM (3/28) producing north winds at 30-35 kts over a small area with seas building. In the evening north winds to be 35 kts falling south with seas 18 ft at 31.75N 154.25W aimed south. The gale was fading Sun AM (3/29) tracking east with 30 kts northeast winds still barely targeting Hawaii with seas fading from 16 ft at 31.5N 154.25W aimed southwest. In the evening northeast winds to fade from barely 30 kts with seas 18 ft at 36.75N 145W moving east pretty fast. Possible northeast windswell for Hawaii.

Oahu: Swell peaks first light Tues (3/31) at 5.9 ft @ 11 secs (6.0 ft). Windswell fading through the day Wed (4/1) from 4.5 ft @ 11 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 005 degrees moving to 20 degrees

California Low
A tiny low pressure system is forecast developing 700 nmiles west of Vancouver Island on Tues PM (3/31) with northwest winds 30+ kts and seas building from 16 ft at 49.5N 145.5W aimed southeast. On Wed AM (4/1) northwest winds to build to gael status at 35 kts falling southeast with seas 18 ft at 46.5N 140W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to start impacting the coast on the OR-CA border with 30+ kt northwest winds just off the coast and seas 18 ft at 43.5N 132.75W aimed southeast. Fetch and seas dissipating on Thurs AM (4/2) while impacting the border/coast. Small swell for CA is possible if all goes as forecast for North CA late in the workweek. Something to monitor.

North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Thurs (4/2) afternoon building to 6.8 ft @ 11 secs later (7.0 ft). Swell holds overnight then starts fading just past sunrise on Fri (4/3) from 6.2 ft @ 11-12 secs early (7.0 ft). Dribbles Sat AM (4/4) from 4.1 ft @ 10 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 305-310 degrees.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical activity of interest is being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tues AM (3/31) no swell of interest was hitting HI or CA originating from the southern hemisphere.

Over the next 72 hours a gale is to develop southeast of New Zealand tracking northeast then east (see New Zealand Gale below).

New Zealand Gale
On Mon AM (3/30) a gale was developing just south of New Zealand with 35-40 kt southwest winds over a decent sized but fragmented area aimed northeast and seas building from 25 ft at 48.25S 166.5E aimed east-northeast. In the evening a more solid fetch of southwest winds developed at mostly 30-35 kts with a core to 40 kts with seas building from 23 ft and a core at 26 ft at 57.75S 176.25W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (3/31) southwest winds consolidated while lifting northeast at 45 kts with seas 28 ft at 61S 178.75W aimed northeast. In the evening 45 kt southwest winds to be lifting northeast with seas 37 ft at 58S 171W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (4/1) southwest winds to be reconsolidating further south at 40-45 kts aimed well northeast with seas 30 ft at 54.5S 164W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest fetch holds stationary at 35-40 kts with seas 29-30 ft over a solid area centered at 57.5S 160W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (4/2) southwest winds to fade from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 26-29 ft at 59.75 154.25W aimed northeast. Secondary fetch develops in the evening at 30-35 kts over a broad area over the Central Pacific aimed northeast with seas 27 ft at 51.75S 146.25W aimed east-northeast. On Fri AM (4/3) southwest winds to be 30-35 kts with seas 27 ft at 54.5S 135.25W aimed east-northeast. Fetch dissipates after that. Something to monitor.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Sat AM (4/4) a small gale is forecast developing southeast of New Zealand with southwest winds 35-40 kts and seas building from 25 ft at 55.5S 177W aimed east-northeast. In the evening southwest winds to be 35-45 kts with seas 30 ft at 58.5S 168.25W aimed east-northeast. On Sun AM (4/5) fetch is to race east at 35-40 kts with seas 27-28 ft at 54S 153.5W aimed east-northeast. Residual fetch fading in the evening in the far Southeast Pacific at 40+ kts with seas 27 ft at 54S 127.5W aimed east. Something to monitor.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

Pressure Pattern has Switched over the KWGA
West Anomalies Filling the KWGA and Forecast Holding - Kelvin Wave #3 Developing
In Nov '25 westerly anomalies associated with Active Phase of the MJO #1 took root producing a Kelvin Wave pushing warn subsurface waters east. In early January strong Active MJO #2 started producing a second WWB in the far West Pacific producing Kelvin Wave #3 that impacted Ecuador in March. And in late Feb Active Phase #3 started developing and is forecast to hold for months with low pressure building over the dateline and high pressure over the Maritime Continent. The first Kelvin Wave erupted over the Galapagos early Feb 2026. A full return to ENSO neutral is setting up over the equatorial Pacific and possibly much more beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Longterm Swell Forecast Overview (updated 3/29/26): In 2022 La Nina evolved with easterly anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and cooler water at the surface off Ecuador. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Active Phases of the MJO produced several Westerly Wind Bursts (WWB) and Kelvin Waves pushing east resulting in significant oceanic warming over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere by late July, and that spelled the demise of that event. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. The fading of this El Nino only resulted in the buildup of more latent heat energy in the ocean. By Jan 2024 the first signs of the normal reaction to El Nino (failed or not) resulted, with La Nina emerging, but never developed more than Modoki status through Fall 2025. And then in Dec 2025, an Active Phase of the MJO developed with westerly anomalies producing a small Kelvin wave, followed by a slightly stronger one in Feb 2026. And then on March 8, westerly anomalies started building in earnest in the far West Pacific, building to strong status in late March suggesting something more was occurring. The buildup of latent heat energy in the planets ocean seems to ensure it will not be denied.

Rationale: A Modoki La Nina developed in the Fall/Winter of 2024-25. It faded in Summer of 2025 then started turning toward La Nina again in Aug 2025. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina in late Aug, some form of weak La Nina built into the jetstream/atmosphere in late Fall (Dec 2025). But at the surface in the West Pacific a series of 3 Westerly Wind Bursts (WWB) occurred (Dec 26, Feb and then March 2026). Note that the PDO was still be in the cool phase in Fall/Winter 2025-26 but was showing signs of turning neutral as of the time of this writing (3/29/26). The two big unknowns are what will the PDO do (will it overwhelm whatever push there is towards and ENSO) and how much if any of Hunga Tonga volcanoes effect linger in the atmosphere?

Regardless, clear signs of the development of El Nino are present in the West Pacific and are starting to affect surface water temps along Ecuador driven by 2 Kelvin Waves (discussed above). And as third WWB started building as of March 8th with east anomalies starting to develop over the Maritime Continent (all classic signal of a developing El Nino) and a change in the Walker Circulation. All the model suggest some form of El Nino developing ranging from weak to strong if not super El NIno status in late Fall 2026. The million dollar question, is not will it evolve, but rather how strong will it be? Will it stall like the 2023 El Nino, of will it be given the chance to fully express what is likely the significant latent heat signature present in the ocean. El Nino is the planets way to bleed off that excess heat, by discharging it to the atmosphere. We are currently in the Spring Unpredictability Barrier (late March 2026). And though all the models are screaming 'El Nino', there is a significant uncertainty as to the strength of whatever El NIno event is to eventually manifest. It all depends upon whether the oceanic change become coupled wit the atmosphere. And that would be expressed through clear signals of a change in the Walker Circulation.

Assuming a moderate to strong event develops, and assuming the current strong WWB underway in the West Pacific continues somewhat as forecast (3 months of continued west anomalies with 6-8 weeks of very strong anomalies through the Spring of 2026), it seems some signature of this event will make it into the atmosphere starting mid-June 2026 (3 months post the start of the 3rd WWB). That should feed energy into the southern hemi jetstream improving the odds for gale development in the South Pacific to perhaps normal status and erasing the previous bias towards La Nina (and therefore less gale development). So prior to mid-June, a suppressed storm track is expected, but that should build after mid-June netting a "normal" summer swell pattern relative to Hawaii and CA. But, there are alot of caveats and 'buts' in the forecast, so confidence is not high,. And in fact, the effects of the WWBs and Kelvin Waves might not develop till Aug 2026. It's just way too early to know with any certainty.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (3/30) 5 day average winds were modest east over the East Equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the dateline fading and moderate west over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak east over the East Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and strong west over the dateline and strong west over KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (3/31) Today strong west anomalies were blowing filling the KWGA. The forecast has moderate to strong west anomalies holding if not strengthening to very strong status 4/10 and beyond through the end of the model run on 4/16. This is the start of the long predicted major and long lasting Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) forecast to herald in El Nino.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO data: Today (3/31) in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was racing east from 172E to 173E. The 29 degree isotherm was easing east from 174E to 176W. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east from 179W to 167W. The 26 deg isotherm was 75m deep at 145W 9previously 50m deep). The thermocline (24C) was thickening at 130W falling down at 75m and pushing into Ecuador 27m down with 25-28 deg temps building on top. Anomaly wise this strong change is reflected down at the thermocline (-150m) with a Kelvin Wave and +2 degs erupting to the surface in the East (past its peak) and +4 degs anomalies in the West (building). There was a clear break between the 2 with +1 anomalies between 153W east to 125W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/24 reflects this strong change too with +4-5 degs anomalies at the thermocline (-150m) in the west and +4-5 deg anomalies erupting to the surface in the East and +2-3 degs anomalies in between from 150W east to 120W. Warm anomalies continued filling the entire subsurface Pacific now. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/24) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were 0 to +5 cms over the entire equatorial Pacific pushing into Ecuador and radiating north and south along the South American Coast. A Kelvin Wave has hit. Heights were +5-+10 cms in the west west of 155W and +5 cms from 100W into Ecuador and up to +15-20 cms along the coast. Heights were -10 to -15 cms anomalies now only south of the equator near 140W.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (3/24) indicates warm anomalies were filling the equatorial Pacific impacting Ecuador (80W). In December '25 warm anomalies and Kelvin Wave #1 started pushing east impacting Ecuador late Feb. Kelvin Wave #2 pushed east in Jan and is impacting Ecuador now. And kelvin Wave #3 started pushing east in March driven by westerly anomalies occurring now and has reached 148W. A weak sign of discharge in the west was indicated late March with temps down some there.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (3/30) In the latest image the last fading remnants of the previous La Nina cool pool were all but gone on the equator between 130W to 170W and quickly losing coverage and density while easing west. La Nina is crashing in the ocean. The atmosphere will be 3 months behind. Warming waters were building markedly along Ecuador out to the Galapagos reaching west on the equator to 130W and also building north and south along the coasts of Chile, Peru and up to Central America. But, a thin stream of cool waters was tracking west from the Galapagos. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Cooler waters were building in a thin stream from the Galapagos to 180W. Temps were warming from Ecuador and Peru west to to 100W. The warming trend is showing a bit more pronounced now on this chart too.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (3/30): Temps were cooling from Ecuador over the Galapagos. This cool pocket is likely the last gasp of east anomalies before west anomalies push in from the west and take over the equatorial Pacific. Water temps were warming over the entire West Pacific to 140W.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/31) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were steady at +0.955 and have been steady near +1.0 since 2/19). Previously temps had been on a generally upward trend since 2/2. Previously temps were +0.010 (1/28) up from -0.320 (1/22). Temps had been rising 1/1-1/16, previously down at -1.596 12/30, up at -0.820 (12/20), that up from -1.453 4 days previous (12/19) but had been falling steadily since 12/2.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/31) Today's temps were inching up at -0.054. Temps have been rising steadily since 1/11, at -1.267 12/27 falling from -0.922 (12/7), rising since 11/26.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were rising at +0.2 (3/25). Previously temps were 0.0 degs (March 11 & 18), -0.1 (3 weeks 2/18-3/4), -0.2 (2/11), 0-0.5 (2/4), -0.4 (1/28), -0.3 (1/21), -0.7 (1/14), -0.8 (1/7), -0.5 (12/31), -0.7 (12/24), -0.8 (12/17), -0.7 (12/10), -0.5 (12/3),. -0.6 (11/26), -0.8 (11/19), -0.7 (11/5 & 11/12), -0.6 (10/15, 10/22 & 10/29), -0.3 (10/8), -0.5 (9/24 & 10/1), -0.4 (9/17), -0.5 (9/10), -0.3 (9/3), -0.4 (8/20 & 8/27).
Monthly Data is -0.19 Feb, -0.41 Jan, -0.57 Dec, -0.64 Nov, -0.50 Oct, -0.45 Sept, -0.32 Aug, -0.10 July -0.01 June, -0.02 May, -0.02 April, +0.11 March, -0.28 Feb, -0.56 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.90 (DJF), -0.97 (NDJ), -0.93 OND, -0.87 SON, -0.77 (ASO). -0.63 (JAS), -0.47 (JJA), -0.43 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-June. Temps started falling in mid-July down to -0.3 in Aug, -0.45 Sept and -0.40 in Oct. Sea Surface Temp Anomalies for Nov did NOT fall nearly as hard as previously forecast (forecast was -0.95 but actual was -0.7) and then did not fall in Dec (forecast at -7.0 actual was -0.6). but Dec was forecast at -0.6 and actuals were -0.75. Late Jan temps were -0.45 and -0.2 in Feb and 0.0 in March.
Forecast (3/31) - Temps are forecast rising dramatically from here forward, to +0.55 mid April and building significantly after that to +2.25 Nov, and +2.0 at the end of the model run (Dec). The PDF & Spread Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same but with temp rising to -0.1 in April and +1.25 in Nov and +1.10 in Dec. It looks like we are moving into some flavor or El Nino, but split anywhere from moderate to super status.
IRI Consensus Plume: The March 19, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are rising fast at +0.207 today (MAM). Temps to rise to +0.477 in AMJ and +0.73 in MJJ and 1.085 NDJ. The Dynamic model suggest temps rising to +1.528 SON then falling to +1.453 at the end of the model run. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to +0.864 at the end of the model run NDJ. In other words, we are at ENSO neutral and moving to maybe weak El Nino in the Fall per the statistic models and strong per the dynamic models.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index is a lagging indicator the 30 day average lagging 15 days and the 90 day average lagging 45 days):
Today (3/31) the Daily Index was -12.06 and has been negative 7 days, otherwise more or less neutral since 3/15. It was generally positive since 2/7, positive 1/28-2/6. It had been negative 1/22-1/27. It had been rising 1/10-1/21 but had been otherwise steady at weakly positive, previously negative 11/28-12/19, positive.
The 30 day average was falling some at +7.16 and +11.70 a month ago.
The 90 day average was falling some at +8.86 and in weak La Nina territory. It was +6.42 a month ago.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.56 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.80 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.13 and -2.03 in Dec 2024 and -1.29 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was steady in Feb 2026 at -1.01, Jan -1.26, Dec 2025 -0.96, -1.51 Nov, -2.37 Oct, -2.31 Sept (and in line with average readings since Nov 2021), -3.23 Aug after falling hard in July at -4.21 (the lowest ever), -2.64 June, -1.66 May, -1.15 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

ESPN Sports Center 'Ride of a Lifetime' - The backstory of Alo Slebir's possible 100+ ft wave at Mevericks - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table