Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.3 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 12.3 secs from 200 degrees. Water temp 76.6 (Barbers Pt), 76.8 (Pearl Harbor 233), 77.5 (Lani 239), 76.6 (Hanalei).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 2.4 ft @ 8.4 secs from 82 degrees. Water temp 76.3 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Buoy 106 is not operating - using 202. Seas were 3.5 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 6.3 secs from 77 degrees. Water temp 76.6 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 2.1 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 13.4 secs from 191 degrees. Wind west 4 kts. Water temperature 61.9 degs, 59.7 (Harvest 071), 63.3 (Topanga 103), 64.6 (Long Beach 215), 64.9 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 65.3 (Del Mar 153), 65.3 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.1 ft @ 13.7 secs from 191 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 0.9 ft @ 8.1 secs from 256 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.6 secs from 206 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.5 ft @ 13.6 secs from 199 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.7 ft @ 14.5 secs from 191 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.7 ft @ 13.8 secs from 190 degrees. Water temperature 66.2 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 14.7 secs from 182 degrees. Wind southwest 2 kts (San Francisco 46026), E 6 kts (Bodega Bay 46013), SE 2 (Half Moon Bay 46012) and NNW 2 (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 55.0 (Pt Reyes 029), 55.6 (San Francisco 46026), 57.7 (SF Bar 142), 57.0 (Half Moon Bay 46012), 55.0 (Monterey Bay 46092), 57.0 (Monterey Outer Canyon 156).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (4/19) in North and Central CA surf was flat and mostly clean but with some slight warble on top. Protected breaks were flat and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh to waist high on the peaks and weakly lined up and clean early. In Ventura County the surf was knee high on the sets and lined up with reasonable form and clean early. Central Orange County had sets at waist to near chest high on the peaks and lined up with decent form though mostly closed out and clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at head high and lined up with decent form and clean early. North San Diego had sets at waist high and lined up with decent form and clean. Oahu's North Shore was flat to thigh high and clean. The South Shore had sets at waist to sometimes chest high and lined up with good form and clean early. The East Shore had set waves a thigh high and warbled with modest east trades early.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (4/19) California and Hawaii were getting very limited background southern hemi swell. Up north a gale tried to develop while tracking northeast from Japan to the North Dateline region Fri-Sat (4/18) producing 24-25 ft seas over the North Dateline Region aimed east. No swell is expected to result. Former Super Typhoon Sinlaku had recurved and on Sunday (4/19) was tracking northeast positioned 700 nmiles southeast of Tokyo Japan with winds 55 kts and seas 33 ft and fading fast. No swell is to reach Hawaii. A gale is developing off the Pacific Northwest while falling southeast Sat-Sun (4/19) with seas 23 ft and is to be well off North CA on Mon (3/20) with 21 ft seas aimed mostly south. Sideband swell is possible. Down south a gale tracked east-northeast over the eastern edge of the CA swell window on Mon-Tues (4/14) with 28-29 ft seas aimed northeast. Swell is tracking north. And a small system developed in the Tasman Sea Fri-Sat (4/18) with 27 ft seas aimed north targeting Fiji with filtered energy possible for Hawaii beyond. Nothing else is on the forecast charts.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (4/19) the jetstream was split with 2 streams running east off Japan briefly consolidating on the dateline then splitting more prominently east of there with the north branch tracking up into Alaska offering nothing. A cutoff trough was circulating off North California perhaps offering minimal support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to move onshore over Central CA late Tues (4/21) likely producing weather there. Beyond 72 hours starting Wed (4/22) the jet is to consolidate off Japan tracking east over the dateline with winds 150 kts and building east to the Western Gulf (160W) with winds building to 160 kts starting to form a broad trough over the dateline looking interesting. That trough is to ease east into Sat (4/25) being fed by 150-160 kt winds digging out a steeper trough over the Gulf still offering some odds for gale development. And another smaller trough is forecast developing off Japan on Sun (4/26) being fed by 150 kts winds perhaps offering some hope.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (4/19) no swell of interest was hitting California to Hawaii.

Over the next 72 hours a small gale is to be falling south and southeast from off the Pacific Northwest perhaps producing some swell (see Pacific NW Gale below)

Pacific NW Gale
On Sat AM (4/18) a gale started developing well off Vancouver Island falling south with north winds 30-35 kts and seas building. In the evening northwest winds were 35 kts over a broader area off North Oregon with seas 20 ft at 47N 141W aimed southeast. On Sun AM (4/29) the gale was falling south with northwest with it's core well off the OR-CA border at 35-40 kts and seas 23 ft at 45N 140.5W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to start falling firmly south with northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 22 ft at 41N 141W or 1,000 nmiles west-northwest of San Francisco. Low pressure to continue falling southeast from there over open waters and winds dropping from 25-30 kts Mon AM (4/20) with seas fading from 20 ft at 37N 139.5W aimed southeast. The gale is to weaken while lifting east-northeast on Tues (3/21) moving onshore over Central and North CA later in the day. Something to monitor at least in terms of rain for CA.

North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Tues (4/21) peaking well before sunrise and fading from 4.3 ft @ 11-12 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell dissipating overnight. Swell Direction: 2954 degrees

Tropical Update
On Tuesday Am (4/14) Typhoon Sinlaku tracked north-northwest positioned 1,200 nmiles south-southeast of Tokyo Japan with winds 125 kts. Sinlaku took a more northerly track on Wed (4/15) with winds fading to 100 kts later in the day and then turned north-northeast Thursday AM (4/17) with winds fading from 90 kts early and seas supposedly 45 ft at 19.5N 146E aimed north-northeast. By Sat AM (4/19) Sinlaku turned fully northeast and 960 nmiles east-southeast of Tokyo with winds dropping to tropical storm status at 60 kts and seas 38 ft at 24.5N 148.5E aimed east. By Sun AM (4/19) Sinlaku was tracking nearly due east and fading with winds 55 kts over a small area and seas fading from 33 ft at 28.75N 154.25E aimed east and fading from there. Sinlaku is to be effectively gone by Mon AM (4/20). Though not really a swell producing storm, it's amazingly early in the season to have a storm form much less recurve east. Perhaps this is a signal of what is to come.

Oahu: No clearly defined swell is forecast relative to Oahu due to shadowing and size. For exposed breaks on other Island swell to hit on Thurs (4/23) building to 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 284-287 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Mon AM (4/21) low pressure is to be 700 nmiles off San Francisco with the associated front impacting the coast with south winds 5-10 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for the SF Bay Area and south 10 kts south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon the front dissolves with south winds 10 kts for all of North and 10-15 kts for Central CA. Rain is to be in a front pushing over the North CA coast early reaching south to Monterey Bay in the the afternoon and then Morro Bay in the evening and covering the inland valley north of 1-80.
Tues AM (4/22) the low is to be just off San Francisco with southeast winds 15 kts for all of North CA and south to southwest winds 15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the low track east and over North CA with northwest winds 10 kts for North CA and west winds 15 kts for Central CA. Rain for North and Central CA all day and showers building over Southern CA. Snow developing for Tahoe early then covering the whole Sierra mid-day continuing through the evening.
Wed AM (4/23) the low is to be well onshore with northwest winds 10 kts for North CA and 10+ kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are to be 10+ kts for North CA and northwest 15 kts for Central CA. Fading showers for North and Central CA early and gone mid-AM for Central CA but continuing to fade in the afternoon for North CA. Snow fading early for the SIerra.
Thurs AM (4/24) high pressure is to be in control with northwest winds 15+ kts for North CA and northwest winds 20 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds build some to 15-20 kts for all of North and Central CA. No precip forecast.
Fri AM (4/25) a weak pressure pattern sets up with northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for all off North and Central CA. No precip forecast.
Sat AM (4/26) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 5-10 kts for Central CA early. in the afternoon northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Sun AM (4/27) northwest winds to be 15 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA early. Showers for Southern CA.

Sierra Snow Forecast: (focused on Olympic Valley): Freeze level falling from 8,500 ft on Mon (4/20) falling fast on Tues (4/21) to 5,000 ft and down to 4,000 ft late on Wed (4/22). Freeze level rises fast on Thurs (4/23) to 8,500 ft and holding from there to 9,000 ft beyond out to 4/28). Snow accumulation for Olympic Valley: 30 inches mostly Mon-Wed (4/22) and another 18 inches on Tues (4/28). Mammoth: 16 inches on Tues (4/21) and a few more on Tues (4/28).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Sun (4/19) swell from a gale previously in the deep Southeast Pacific was propagating northeast (see SE Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a gael previously in the Tasman Sea was propagating north (see Tasman Sea gale below).

SE Pacific Gale
On Mon PM (4/13) a gale started developing over the Southeast Pacific with southwest winds 40-45 kts over a small area and seas building from 27 ft at 62S 134W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (4/14) southwest winds were 40 kts over a tiny area with seas 29 ft at 56.5S 127W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch raced northeast and east of the Southern CA swell window while fading from 30-35 kts and seas crashing from 25 ft at 52S 120W and barely in the CA swell window. Small swell is propagating northeast.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (4/22) building to 1.4 ft @ 17 secs late (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building on Thurs (4/23) to 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (2.5 ft). Swell fading Fri (4/24) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Sat (4/25) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (4/22) building to 1.2 ft @ 17-18 secs late (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building on Thurs (4/23) to 1.5 ft @ 16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Fri (4/24) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Sat (4/25) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 180 degrees

Tasman Sea Gale
A gale developed in the Tasman Sea Thurs PM (4/16) producing 30-35 kts south winds with seas building. On Fri AM (4/17) south winds were 40 kts aimed well north right up the Tasman Sea with seas to 23 ft at 50S 153.5E aimed northeast. In the evening south winds were fading from 35-40 kts still aimed well north with seas 27 ft @ 46S 154.5E aimed northeast. The gale was fading Sat AM (4/18) with south winds 35 kts aimed well north with seas 25 ft at 40S 158.75E aimed northeast. The gale continued tracking slowly north in the evening with south winds fading from 30-35 kts positioned well west of the North Island of New Zealand and seas 23 ft at 39S 161E aimed north. On Sun AM the gale was stationary with south winds 30-35 kts and seas fading from 22 ft at 35S 159E aimed north. The gale to fade away after that. Something to monitor relative to Fiji and maybe Hawaii.

Fiji: Swell arrival on Tues (4/21) building to 5.8 ft @ 14-15 secs later (8.5 ft). Swell peaking Wed AM (4/22) at 7.3 ft @ 14 secs early (10.0 ft) and then fading from there. Swell Direction: 210 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a gale is now again forecast developing in the deep Central South Pacific on Wed PM (4/22) with southwest wind building from 40 kts over a solid area aimed northeast and seas building. On Thurs AM (4/23) 40 kt southwest winds to increase in coverage aimed well northeast with seas building from 27 ft at 55S 162W aimed northeast. The gale was to lift northeast in the evening with 40 kts southwest winds and seas 27 ft at 49.5S 157.25W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (4/24) the gale is to be fading with seas fading from 24 ft at 46S 150W. Something to monitor.

Pressure Pattern has Switched over the KWGA
Large Kelvin Wave #3 Pushing East
In Nov '25 westerly anomalies associated with Active Phase of the MJO #1 took root producing a Kelvin Wave pushing warn subsurface waters east. In early January strong Active MJO #2 started producing a second WWB in the far West Pacific producing Kelvin Wave #3 that impacted Ecuador in March. And in late Feb Active Phase #3 started developing and is forecast to hold for months with low pressure building over the dateline and high pressure over the Maritime Continent. The first Kelvin Wave erupted over the Galapagos early Feb 2026. A full return to ENSO neutral is setting up over the equatorial Pacific and possibly much more beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Longterm Swell Forecast Overview (updated 3/29/26): In 2022 La Nina evolved with easterly anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and cooler water at the surface off Ecuador. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Active Phases of the MJO produced several Westerly Wind Bursts (WWB) and Kelvin Waves pushing east resulting in significant oceanic warming over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere by late July, and that spelled the demise of that event. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. The fading of this El Nino only resulted in the buildup of more latent heat energy in the ocean. By Jan 2024 the first signs of the normal reaction to El Nino (failed or not) resulted, with La Nina emerging, but never developed more than Modoki status through Fall 2025. And then in Dec 2025, an Active Phase of the MJO developed with westerly anomalies producing a small Kelvin wave, followed by a slightly stronger one in Feb 2026. And then on March 8, westerly anomalies started building in earnest in the far West Pacific, building to strong status in late March suggesting something more was occurring. The buildup of latent heat energy in the planets ocean seems to ensure it will not be denied.

Rationale: A Modoki La Nina developed in the Fall/Winter of 2024-25. It faded in Summer of 2025 then started turning toward La Nina again in Aug 2025. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina in late Aug, some form of weak La Nina built into the jetstream/atmosphere in late Fall (Dec 2025). But at the surface in the West Pacific a series of 3 Westerly Wind Bursts (WWB) occurred (Dec 26, Feb and then March 2026). Note that the PDO was still be in the cool phase in Fall/Winter 2025-26 but was showing signs of turning neutral as of the time of this writing (3/29/26). The two big unknowns are what will the PDO do (will it overwhelm whatever push there is towards and ENSO) and how much if any of Hunga Tonga volcanoes effect linger in the atmosphere?

Regardless, clear signs of the development of El Nino are present in the West Pacific and are starting to affect surface water temps along Ecuador driven by 2 Kelvin Waves (discussed above). And as third WWB started building as of March 8th with east anomalies starting to develop over the Maritime Continent (all classic signal of a developing El Nino) and a change in the Walker Circulation. All the model suggest some form of El Nino developing ranging from weak to strong if not super El NIno status in late Fall 2026. The million dollar question, is not will it evolve, but rather how strong will it be? Will it stall like the 2023 El Nino, of will it be given the chance to fully express what is likely the significant latent heat signature present in the ocean. El Nino is the planets way to bleed off that excess heat, by discharging it to the atmosphere. We are currently in the Spring Unpredictability Barrier (late March 2026). And though all the models are screaming 'El Nino', there is a significant uncertainty as to the strength of whatever El NIno event is to eventually manifest. It all depends upon whether the oceanic change become coupled wit the atmosphere. And that would be expressed through clear signals of a change in the Walker Circulation.

Assuming a moderate to strong event develops, and assuming the current strong WWB underway in the West Pacific continues somewhat as forecast (3 months of continued west anomalies with 6-8 weeks of very strong anomalies through the Spring of 2026), it seems some signature of this event will make it into the atmosphere starting mid-June 2026 (3 months post the start of the 3rd WWB). That should feed energy into the southern hemi jetstream improving the odds for gale development in the South Pacific to perhaps normal status and erasing the previous bias towards La Nina (and therefore less gale development). So prior to mid-June, a suppressed storm track is expected, but that should build after mid-June netting a "normal" summer swell pattern relative to Hawaii and CA. But, there are alot of caveats and 'buts' in the forecast, so confidence is not high,. And in fact, the effects of the WWB and Kelvin Waves might not develop till Aug 2026. It's just way too early to know with any certainty.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/18) 5 day average winds were modest east over the East Equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the dateline and KWGA. Anomalies were modest west over the East Pacific and weak west over the Central Pacific and neutral over the dateline and weak east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (4/19) Today neutral anomalies were filling the KWGA. Previously anomalies had been moderate to strong west 4/17-3/26 and moderate west starting 3/8 or 6 weeks in duration. The forecast has mostly weak east anomalies mostly filling the KWGA 4/20-4/26 then weak west anomalies start rebuilding over the dateline and backfilling over the rest of the KWGA 4/27 reaching modest strength at the end of the model run on 5/5.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (4/18) Currently a modest Active MJO (wet air) was filling the KWGA with a strong Inactive Phase (dry air) over the Maritime Continent starting to ease east into the far West Pacific. The statistic model depicts the Inactive Phase (dry air) taking over the KWGA on day 5 then slowly weakening but still in control on day 15 of the model run. The Dynamic model indicates mostly the same thing but with the Active Phase handing on a little bit longer, til day 5 of the model run and the Inactive Phase far weaker on day 15 of the model run at weak status. The Dynamic and Statistic models are mostly in agreement.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (4/19) - Today the models depict the Active Phase was moderate over Africa. The statistic model has it moving east to the East Indian Ocean 2 weeks out and split between very weak and moderate. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase over the Central Indian Ocean at weak strength 2 weeks out.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/18) Today the Active Phase was fading fast over the KWGA with 1 contour and west anomalies very modest status. Weak west anomalies are to be tracking east and gone for the KWGA 4/22-4/25. The Inactive Phase of the MJO with 1 contour is to transit east through the KWGA 4/20-5/5 but with modest west anomalies filling the KWGA. After that no MJO signal is indicated with moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA 5/5 through the end of the model run on 5/16. Looking at what has happened recently moderate or stronger west anomalies started 2/20 holding through 4/17 or roughly 8 weeks with 4.5 weeks of that at strong status (3/16-4/18). This is much shorter than originally forecast but still fairly impressive given the time of year and has resulted in large Kelvin Wave #3 pushing east.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/18) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today neutral anomalies were filling the KWGA with the Inactive Phase in control. The Inactive MJO is to hold through 6/5 with 1-2 contours but with modest west anomalies filling the KWGA. The Active Phase is to follow 6/1 through the end of the model run on 7/16 with moderate west anomalies in control building at time to moderate strength. The low pass filter indicates the leading edge of the low pressure bias was racing east over the West Pacific from 170E (150E a week ago) and is to reach 125W in late May with a second contour setting up on the dateline 5/12 and a third on 6/18. A fourth has disappeared again. The trailing/west edge of the high pressure bias is easing east at 165W today with 1 contour (a second contour dissipated on 3/22) and is retreating fast to the east and gone from the KWGA and is to reach 120W late May. East anomalies started building over the Maritime Continent 3/8 and are to continue filling it through the end of the model run. A wholesale pressure pattern change appears to be well underway.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO data: Today (4/19) in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was steady at 172E. The 29 degree isotherm was moving east from 176W to 174W. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east from 164W to 138W. This is a major positive change. The 24 deg isotherm was 125m deep at 140W and thickening at 130W falling down at 75m and pushing into Ecuador 27m down with 25-28 deg temps building on top. Anomaly wise this strong change is reflected down at the thermocline (-150m) with a Kelvin Wave and +1 degs erupting to the surface in the East Pacific and +4-+5 deg anomalies in the West (building) with the leading edge at 125W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/13 reflects this strong change too with a huge Kelvin Wave at +4-5 degs anomalies at the thermocline (-150m) in the west between 110W-160E and +2 deg anomalies erupting to the surface in the East from 95W and points east of there but past its peak. Warm anomalies continued filling the entire subsurface Pacific now. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (4/13) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were positive over the entire equatorial Pacific pushing into Ecuador and radiating north and south along the South American Coast. Kelvin Waves #1 & #2 have hit with +5 cms from 95W into Ecuador and up to +10 cms moving north along the coast. Kelvin Wave #3 was filling most of the Equatorial Pacific from 105W to 155E with heights up to +10 cms.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (4/13) indicates warm anomalies were filling the equatorial Pacific impacting Ecuador (80W). In December '25 warm anomalies and Kelvin Wave #1 started pushing east impacting Ecuador late Feb. Kelvin Wave #2 pushed east in Jan and is still impacting Ecuador now but past its prime. And Kelvin Wave #3 is in-flight pushing east reaching 108W driven by westerly anomalies occurring now. A weak sign of discharge was indicated in the west in late March and again mid-April.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/18) In the latest image warm anomalies were filling the entire equator Pacific with very warm anomalies from Ecuador to a bit east of the Galapagos. Moderate west anomalies were filling the KWGA and building some at 120W. Cooler anomalies were fading south of the equator near 140W (the remnants of La Nina). La Nina is gone. The ocean is showing clear signs of El Nino and the atmosphere will be 3 months behind (roughly mid-June). Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): This chart is now starting to show the development of El Nino too with warm anomalies on the equator from Ecuador to well west of the dateline, weakest near 140W but collapsing even there. Temps were warming markedly from the coast of Ecuador and west to the Galapagos
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/18): Temps were warming markedly from Ecuador to the Galapagos, then neutral from there to 110W. Then warming starts solidly on the equator from 110W to 165W. A major change appears to be setting up indicative of El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/19) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were rising fast at +1.483. Previously there were steady near +1.0 from 2/19-4/7. Before that temps had been on a generally upward trend since 2/2. Previously temps were +0.010 (1/28) up from -0.320 (1/22). Temps had been rising 1/1-1/16, previously down at -1.596 12/30, up at -0.820 (12/20), that up from -1.453 4 days previous (12/19) but had been falling steadily since 12/2.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/19) Today's temps were rising fast at +0.462, rising the last 5 days after reaching dead neutral (0.0) on 4/2, the first time in a very long time. Temps have been rising steadily since 1/11, at -1.267 12/27 falling from -0.922 (12/7), rising since 11/26.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were rising at +0.2 (3/25, 4/1 & 4/8). Previously temps were 0.0 degs (March 11 & 18), -0.1 (3 weeks 2/18-3/4), -0.2 (2/11), 0-0.5 (2/4), -0.4 (1/28), -0.3 (1/21), -0.7 (1/14), -0.8 (1/7), -0.5 (12/31), -0.7 (12/24), -0.8 (12/17), -0.7 (12/10), -0.5 (12/3),. -0.6 (11/26), -0.8 (11/19), -0.7 (11/5 & 11/12), -0.6 (10/15, 10/22 & 10/29), -0.3 (10/8), -0.5 (9/24 & 10/1), -0.4 (9/17), -0.5 (9/10), -0.3 (9/3), -0.4 (8/20 & 8/27).
Monthly Data is +0.05 March, -0.12 Feb, -0.41 Jan, -0.57 Dec, -0.64 Nov, -0.50 Oct, -0.45 Sept, -0.32 Aug, -0.10 July -0.01 June, -0.02 May, -0.02 April, +0.11 March, -0.28 Feb, -0.56 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0,72 (JFM), -0.88 (DJF), -0.97 (NDJ), -0.93 OND, -0.87 SON, -0.77 (ASO). -0.63 (JAS), -0.47 (JJA), -0.43 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-June. Temps started falling in mid-July down to -0.3 in Aug, -0.45 Sept and -0.40 in Oct. Sea Surface Temp Anomalies for Nov did NOT fall nearly as hard as previously forecast (forecast was -0.95 but actual was -0.7) and then did not fall in Dec (forecast at -7.0 actual was -0.6). but Dec was forecast at -0.6 and actuals were -0.75. Late Jan temps were -0.45 and -0.2 in Feb and 0.0 in March and +0.3 in April.
Forecast (4/16) - Temps are forecast rising dramatically from here forward, to +2.85 Nov, and +2.20 at the end of the model run on Jan 2027. At the other end of the spectrum the PDF & Spread Corrected forecast suggests the same trend but with temps rising to +1.75 in Nov and +1.10 in Jan. It looks like we are moving into some flavor or El Nino, but split anywhere from strong to 'super' status.
IRI Consensus Plume: The March 19, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are rising fast at +0.207 today (MAM). Temps to rise to +0.477 in AMJ and +0.73 in MJJ and 1.085 NDJ. The Dynamic model suggest temps rising to +1.528 SON then falling to +1.453 at the end of the model run. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to +0.864 at the end of the model run NDJ. In other words, we are at ENSO neutral and moving to maybe weak El Nino in the Fall per the statistic models and strong per the dynamic models.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index is a lagging indicator the 30 day average lagging 15 days and the 90 day average lagging 45 days):
Today (4/19) the Daily Index was +6.20 and positive since 4/15 but had been negative 21 days previous, otherwise more or less neutral since 3/15.
The 30 day average was rising from -7.19 and +11.62 a month ago.
The 90 day average was falling some at +4.32 and in weak La Nina territory. It was +10.10 a month ago.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.56 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.80 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.13 and -2.03 in Dec 2024 and -1.29 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was steady in March 2026 at -1.44 and was Feb -1.01, Jan -1.26, Dec 2025 -0.96, -1.51 Nov, -2.37 Oct, -2.31 Sept (and in line with average readings since Nov 2021), -3.23 Aug after falling hard in July at -4.21 (the lowest ever), -2.64 June, -1.66 May, -1.15 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.