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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, April 23, 2020 3:45 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.5 - California & 3.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 4/13 thru Sun 4/19

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Dateline Swell Hitting HI
SPac to Go Quiet

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Thursday, April 23, 2020 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 3.9 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 13.7 secs from 248 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 7.7 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 6.0 ft @ 13.2 secs from 320 degrees. Water temp 76.8 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.5 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 16.0 secs from 240 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 61.2 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.2 ft @ 13.4 secs from 284 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.5 ft @ 14.6 secs from 229 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.4 ft @ 14.6 secs from 219 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 2.0 ft @ 14.8 secs from 229 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 7.6 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 13.1 secs from 269 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 18-21 kts. Water temp 52.3 degs (013), 56.3 degs (012) and 56.1 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (4/23) in North and Central CA local windswell was producing waves at up to head high but soft and warbled and mushy with small whitecaps on top. Protected breaks were chest high and warbled from northwest winds and soft with fog looking very much like summer. All parking lots closed. At Santa Cruz waves were shoulder high and clean and lined up and occasionally decent form with glass conditions. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high and pretty textured and warbled/junky though local wind was near calm. In North Orange Co waves were up to head high coming from the north and pretty textured and junky from modest southerly winds. Orange Country's best summertime breaks were head high and clean and peeling but soft coming from the south. Beaches were closed. North San Diego was waist high on the sets and clean and peeling at select peaks. All beaches closed. Hawaii's North Shore was getting swell from the dateline with waves double overhead plus and clean but a little raw with fairly clean conditions. The South Shore was thigh high and clean and weak. The East Shore was waist high getting wrap around northwest swell and pretty chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (4/23) in California local windswell was in place. In Hawaii swell was fading from a gale previously in the far Northwestern Gulf Sun-Mon (4/2) producing 25 ft seas aimed southeast. And that swell was starting to get overridden by swell from another gale that felling southeast on the dateline Mon-Tues (4/121) with up to 28 ft seas. Perhaps a small gael to develop off Vancouver ISlands on Sun (4/26) producing 27 ft seas aimed east. And another gale is to develop on the dateline Thurs (4/30) producing 27 ft seas aimed east with luck. Down south a small storm formed south of the Tasman Sea tracking east Thurs-Sat (4/11) producing a small area of up to 50 ft seas aimed east then faded as it moved into the exposed Southwest Pacific. That swell is fading in California. And another small gale spun up just east of New Zealand on Mon-Tues (4/14) generating a tiny area of 36-38 ft seas aimed well northeast. Swell never really arrived in Hawaii which suggests even the modest swell expected for CA is unlikely to materialize. Beyond the models indicate no gale development in the Southern Hemi for the next week.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Thursday (4/23) swell from a gale that developed over the dateline falling southeast was fading in Hawaii and moving towards CA (see Dateline Gale below). A second gale formed in the same area directly behind with swell from it starting to hit Hawaii and moving towards California (see Another Dateline Gale below).

 

Over the next 72 hours a small gale is forecast developing 500 nmiles off Vancouver Island on Sun AM (4/26) producing 35 kt west winds and seas 27 ft at 48N 1443.5W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to move up to the coast at 35 kts with seas 26 ft at 49.5N 137W aimed east. the gale is to move onshore after that. Low odds of small swell radiating south into the Pacific Northwest down into maybe Central CA.

 

Dateline Gale
A small gale developed Sun AM (4/19) in the far Northwestern Gulf of Alaska producing a moderate size area of northwest winds at 30-35 kts aimed southeast with seas building from 20 ft at 44N 172W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale built producing a modest area of 30-35 kt northwest winds with seas building to 22 ft at 41N 173.5W aimed southeast. Fetch expanded some on Mon AM (4/20) at 30-35 kts from the northwest with 25 ft seas at 41.5N 174W aimed southeast. The gale was fading in the evening with 30 kts west winds and seas 23 ft at 42N 166W aimed east. The gale faded from there. Small swell has been generated tracking southeast towards Hawaii and the US West Coast.

Oahu: Swell fading slowly on Thurs AM (4/23) but being overridden by another swell. from 7.3 ft @ 12-13 secs (9.0 ft) and being overrun by new swell. Swell Direction: 320 degrees.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (4/24) building to 4.7 ft @ 14 secs early (6.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (4/25) fading from 3.2 ft @ 12 secs (3.5). Swell gone after that. Swell Direction: 290 degrees

 

Another Dateline Gale
Another small gale started falling southeast on Mon PM (4/20) over the dateline producing northwest winds at 30-35 kts producing a small area of 25 ft seas at 44N 178E aimed southeast. On Tues AM (4/21) the gale was falling southeast fast producing northwest winds at 35-40 kts with seas 28 ft at 41N 177.5W aimed southeast. Fetch was fading in the evening from 30-35 kts with the gale tracking more easterly with seas 25 ft at 39N 174W targeting primarily Hawaii. Fetch was fading out on Wed AM (4/22) with seas from previous fetch fading from 20 ft at 37N 168.5W aimed southeast.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (4/23) with swell 8.4 ft @ 14-15 secs mid-day (12 ft) and holding. Swell fading on Fri (4/24) fading from .6.2 ft @ 13 secs (8.0 ft). Residuals on Sat (4/25) fading from 4.1 ft @ 11 secs (4.5 ft). Dribbles on Sun (4/26) fading from 3.0 ft @ 10 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 335 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on later on Sat (4/25) building to 2.8 ft @ 15 secs (4.0 ft). Swell peaking on Sun (4/26) at 3.9 ft @ 12-13 secs (5.0 ft) and being overridden by local windswell. Swell Direction: 290 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday (4/23) a pressure gradient is to be in place but depressed south some producing north winds at 10-15 kts for North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA pushing near 30 kts in the afternoon. No precip forecast. Fri (4/24) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA holding all day. On Sat (4/25) northwest winds to be 20 kts from Bodega Bay southward holding all day. On Sun (4/26) northwest winds are to continue at 15+ kts for North CA and 20+ kts for Central CA early and 20+ kts for both locations later in the afternoon. No change on Monday (4/27). On Tues (4/28) the gradient is to lift north slightly over North CA with northwest winds 20 kts there and 20 kts early for Central CA but fading to 10-15 kts later for Central CA. Wednesday (4/29) north winds are forecast at 15-20 ks for Pt Arena south to Big Sur and holding all day. No change on Thurs (4/30). No precip forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches respectively.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (4/23) the southern branch of the jetstream was exceedingly weak displaced well south under New Zealand over Antarctica lifting northeast forming a trough over the Central South Pacific but so weak as to offer no support for gale production, then with the jet crashing south again into Antarctica over the far Southeast Pacific. Over the next 72 hours the aforementioned weak trough is to be falling south with the jet organized zonally tracking east down at 70S with no trough indicated offering no support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours a new ridge is to be building southeast of New Zealand falling southeast into Antarctica into Tues (4/28). There's some suggestion a trough is to build over the Central South Pacific off the leading edge of this ridge late Wed (4/29) with 150 kt winds feeding up into it. There's some weak potential for support of gale development there into Thurs (4/30).

 

Surface Analysis
Small swell is fading out in California from a gale that tracked east under New Zealand (see New Zealand Gale below). And another swell is radiating north from a gale previously along New Zealand (See New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

New Zealand Gale
On Thurs PM (4/9) a storm started developing in a trough well south of the Tasman Sea producing 50-55 kt west winds over a modest sized area and seas building to 50 ft at 57.5S 148E aimed due east and on the 218 degree track to CA. The gale faded some on Fri (4/10) with west winds 45 kts and seas 46 ft at 59S 160E aimed east (214-216 degs CA). In the evening 40 kt west winds continued tracking east over a solid area with 42 ft seas fading at 60S 172E aimed east (209-210 degs CA). The gale was dissipating Sat AM (4/11) with 35 kt west winds and seas fading from 40 ft at 60S 177.5E aimed east. Remnants of this gale are to be racing east from there. At best some tiny southwest swell could possibly result but this system is a very long ways away meaning much swell decay should be expected. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Swell fading on Thurs (4/23) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 219 degrees

North CA: Swell fading on Thurs (4/23) from 1.4 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 218 degrees

 

New Zealand Gale
Starting Mon AM (4/13) a storm developed just southeast of the southern tip of New Zealand producing a small area of 45-50 kt south winds and seas building from 33 ft at 525S 174.5E aimed north. In the evening winds were 45 kts from the south over a small area producing 38 ft seas at 50.5S 172.5E aimed north. On Tues AM (4/14) southwest winds were lifting north fast at 40 kts with seas 36 ft over a tiny area at 46.5S 175.5E aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 35-40 kts over a small area aimed northeast with seas fading from 34 ft at 42S 179.5W aimed northeast. The gale is to be gone after that. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Dribbles on Thurs (4/23) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival late on Thurs (4/23) building to 1.0 ft @ 17-18 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell holding on Fri (4/24) at 1.2 ft @ 16 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell fading Sat (4/25) from 1.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 222 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival late on Thurs (4/23) building to 1.0 ft @ 17-18 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell fading Fri (4/24) from 1.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 220 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Wed PM (4/29) a gale is to be developing approaching the dateline with 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas 20 ft at 37.5N 165.5E aimed east. The gale is to move over the dateline Thurs AM (4/30) producing 40-45 kt northwest winds and seas building to 26 ft at 42.5N 177E aimed east. Something to monitor.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Inactive MJO Building - Warm Anomalies Holding - CFS Projects High Pressure Bias Building late Summer

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool had collapsed with warm water starting to build on the equator.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. Given all that, for 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the end of 2020 if not longer.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/22) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and then solid east over the Dateline and KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the far East equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific then light easterly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (4/23) moderate east anomalies were over the KWGA. The forecast calls for east anomalies holding unchanged filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 4/30.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (4/22) A strong Inactive Phase of the MJO was filling the West Pacific/KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Inactive Phase is to track slightly east holding strength through day 10, then fading some to modest strength on day 15 on the dateline and still in the KWGA. A massive and strong Active Phase is to be building over the Indian Ocean reaching over the Maritime Continent at day 15. The dynamic model indicates the same thing initially but with the Inactive Phase starting to weaken at day 10 and then rapidly dissipating on day 15 of the model run. A moderate Active MJO is to be in the Indian Ocean moving over the Maritime Continent at day 15. The two model are coming more in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (4/23) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the West Indian Ocean today and is to track slowly east while losing strength over the Maritime Continent at day 15. The GEFS model suggests the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (4/23) This model depicts the Inactive Phase of the MJO was over the East Equatorial Pacific. The Inactive Phase is to track east while losing strength pushing into Central America on 5/3. The Active Phase is to move east over the West Pacific starting 5/5 tracking to the East Pacific and into Central America on 5/23 and modestly strong. A modest Inactive Phase is supposed to start building in the West Pacific on 5/23 moving to the Central Pacific at the end of the model run on 6/2..
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/22) This model depicts no MJO signal in the KWGA today but with east anomalies present over the whole of the KWGA. The forecast indicates a weak Inactive MJO is to be building into the KWGA 4/23-5/3 with east anomalies steady in the modest to moderate range and building in coverage filling the KWGA through 5/6 then weakening but not giving up possession of the KWGA through the end of the model run on 5/20.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/23 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts a building Inactive Phase of the MJO over the KWGA today with weak east anomalies in-play. Beyond the Inactive Phase/Pattern is to build holding through 5/10 with east anomalies forecast. The Active Phase is to start building 5/8 in the far West KWGA slowly building east and weakly filling the KWGA till 5/25 with weak to modest west anomalies developing. A weak Inactive Phase is forecast 5/17-6/8 with weak west anomalies in control. Another weak Active Pulse is to follow 6/10 building through the end of the model run with weak west anomalies in control building to moderate strength 6/26-then end of the model run on 7/21. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 1 contour line in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to the California coast. This contour line is to hold till 5/9, then collapse to nothing wit no return in sight. A high pressure bias previously that has been over the Indian Ocean since last Fall is to hold till May 9, then dissipate but then reappear in the Central Pacific on 7/3 just east of the KWGA. East anomalies set up in the Indian Ocean last Fall and held through Jan 10, 2020, then started to become more episodic and are to continue that way, then fading on 6/10, After that west anomalies are to start building in the core of the Indian Ocean holding into the end of the model run. East anomalies are to start building solidly over the East Pacific late-May but not migrating west, remaining stationary while west anomalies hold in the KWGA through the end of the model run.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (4/23) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was less shallow reaching east to 157E. The 29 deg isotherm was reaching east to 179W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 135W today. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing into Ecuador. Anomaly wise, Kelvin Wave #6 was fading while pushing into the East Equatorial Pacific at +1.0 degs but with other nondescript warm water tracking from the Maritime Continent under the dateline merging with the tail of Kelvin Wave #6. The net effect was warm water was filling the entire equatorial subsurface Pacific down to 105 meters deep on the dateline getting progressively shallower east of there today. A large pocket of cool water at -3 degs was 150 meters deep at 150W today tracking east with it's leading edge at 106W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/18 indicates warm water had formed a Kelvin Wave with warm water falling from 120E down into the dateline at 100 m deep peaking in the East Pacific at +2-3 degrees then pushing and rising east to 95W and likely now stationary. A pocket of cool water was east of there associated with the upwelling phase of the previous Kelvin Wave Cycle. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (4/18) No positive or negative anomalies were indicated on the equatorial Pacific, suggestive of no Kelvin Waves in flight.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (4/22) The latest images indicate warm anomalies were modest along the coast of Chile up into Peru and steady in intensity from days past with warm anomalies continuing up off Ecuador up into Central America. A stream of cool water was pushing north along the immediate coast of Peru up to a point off Ecuador and weaker than days past. Markedly warmer water was building solidly aligned on the equator from the Galapagos out to 140W and looking exactly like El Nino. A broad pocket of cool anomalies was all but gone south of the equator off Peru but with a solid but not unusual pocket of cool water off California and Baja.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/22): A weakly cool pattern was along Chile and Peru streaming north to a point just east of the Galapagos and stronger there. Cooling was along now along the equator from 110W to 135W. The short term trend is looking like a fading warm pattern tracking west on the equator west of the Galapagos.
Hi-res Overview: (4/22) A previous pocket of cool anomalies is gone off Peru. A stronger pocket of cooling was off California and Baja Mexico out to 145W. Warm anomalies were building along Chile and Peru then stronger off Ecuador and Central America up to Mainland Mexico and markedly strong on the equator from the Galapagos out to 145W. Water temps appear to be stable and if anything looking almost like El Nino that anything previous over the past few months. Overall the data suggests a El Nino trend today.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/23) Today's temps were steady today at +0.326, but overall down from a warmer range near +0.6 degs between 2/25-3/26. Previously temps had been toggling near neutral. It appears we were in a rising or at least warmer trend, but that is now fading.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(4/23) Temps were falling today at +0.497. Temps previously were in the +0.3 degree range but rose to the +0.5-+0.6 degree range 3/12-4/8.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (4/23) Actual's indicate temperatures were steady at +0.65 degs Jan 1 2020 through April 1 then falling in early April. The forecast depicts temps falling steadily from here forward, down to 0.0 in early May then diving negative down to -0,75 July 1 and moving strongly to La Nina down at -1.25 in early Oct dropping to -1.30 degs Dec 1 then drifting up from there. According to this model a neutral sea surface temperature pattern biased slightly warm is forecast for Spring of 2020 but falling strongly towards La Nina as Summer develops.
IRI Consensus Plume: The April 21, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at +0.30 degs, and are to slow fade to neutral +0.00 in August 2020, then holding there through December 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (4/23): The daily index was positive today at +1.87. The 30 day average was rising at -3.05. The 90 day average was falling some at -2.86, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was developing.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): March 2020 -0.11, Feb +0.69, Jan +0.42, Dec 2019 +0.46, Nov +1.03, Oct +0.27 Sept +1.11, August +0.60, July +0.75, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.30, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (4/19):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqYUfFDm35U&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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