BUOY ROUNDUP
Sunday, April 26, 2026 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (4/26) in North and Central CA surf was maybe thigh high and lined up and mushed and warbled but not chopped from moderate northwest wind. Protected breaks were knee to maybe thigh high and weakly lined up and mushed and warbled and not really rideable. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high on the sets and somewhat lined up with decent form and clean but soft. In Ventura County the surf was knee high on the sets and weakly lined up with no real form and modestly warbled early. Central Orange County had sets at thigh to maybe waist high and lined up coming from the northwest with poor form and and warbled from northwest winds early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets to thigh high and weakly lined up with poor form and warbled from northwest wind. North San Diego had sets at thigh high and lined up with poor form and warbled. Oahu's North Shore had sets at head high and lined up with decent form and fairly clean early but with some intermixed warble. The South Shore had a few thigh to waist high sets and soft but clean early. The East Shore was getting northeast windswell at thigh to maybe waist high and lightly chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (4/26) California was getting no swell of interest. Hawaii was getting minimal background swell from a small system that developed in the Tasman Sea Fri-Sat (4/18) with 27 ft seas aimed north with filtered energy possible reaching Hawaii. Up north on Sat-Sun (4/26) a small gale developed on the North Dateline region with up to 36-37 ft seas aimed east over a tiny area. Looking forward a small gale is forecast tracking east off Japan Tues (4/28) tracking to the Northwestern Gulf with up to 32 ft seas on the dateline. Perhaps another to follow tracking northeast to the North Dateline region Sat-Sun (5/3) with up to 36 ft seas aimed east. Down south nothing obvious is forecast. but weather is to be passing under New Zealand Wed (4/39) and another Thurs (4/30) both with 29 ft seas aimed east likely not offering much.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (4/26) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east off Japan forming a trough over the dateline being fed by 140 kts winds offering some support for gale formation. East of there the jet was lifting hard northeast impacting the East Aleutians then falling hard south forming a broad trough well off Central CA supporting low pressure there. Over the next 72 hours the trough is to build Mon AM (4/27) in the Northwest Gulf being fed by 160 kts winds still supporting gale formation before the trough pinches off in the evening. At the same time the trough off California is to start pinching off turning more into a backdoor trough with it's apex still well off Central CA then becoming fully cutoff on Wed (4/29) off Central CA. At that time the jet in the west is to be building with winds 160 kts running due east from Japan to the dateline with a new trough starting to form on it's leading edge. Beyond 72 hours the backdoor trough off California is to move inland on Thurs (4/30) over Central CA producing only weather. Back to the west a new trough is to start building in the existing wind energy there on the dateline being fed by 160 kts winds supporting gale formation and tracking east into Sat (5/2) with winds building to 170 kts now over the Western Gulf still supporting gale formation before pinching off in the evening. At 180 hours out on Sun (5/3) the jet is to remain consolidated running from Japan to the dateline with winds 150 kts possibly starting to support yet another trough there. Interesting.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (4/26) no swell was hitting California while small local north windswell was hitting Hawaii. And a gael was tracking over the North Dateline region perhaps offering some weak potential for the US West Coast (see North Dateline Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Tues AM (4/28) a gale is forecast developing half way between Japan and the dateline with 45 kt west winds and seas 31 ft at 41N 163E aimed east. In the evening west winds to be 40 kts with seas 31 ft at 41.75N 171E aimed east. On Wed AM (4/29) the gale is to be over the dateline with west winds 40 kts and seas 32 ft at 44N 178.25E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to be fading while pushing over the dateline with west winds 35 kts and seas 30 ft at 44.25N 173.5W aimed east. On Thurs AM (4/30) the gale is to be fading over the Northwestern Gulf with 35 kts west winds and seas 26 ft at 46.25N 167.5W aimed east. Something to monitor.

North Dateline Gale
A gale developed while approaching the North Dateline Region from the southwest on Fri PM (4/24) with west winds 40 kts and seas building from 20 ft at 40N 167E aimed east. On Sat AM (4/25) the gale was racing northeast with west winds 35-40 kts and seas building from 21 ft at 42.5N 176.75E aimed east. In the evening the gale moved over the intersection of the dateline and the Aleutian Islands with west winds 45-50 kts and seas 30 ft at 49N 177W aimed east. On Sun AM (4/26) fetch was fading over the East Aleutians with the core of the low tracking northeast into the Bering Sea with west winds 40-45 kts still in the North Pacific with seas fading from 37 ft at 52.25W 170.5W aimed east. The gale is to dissipate after that.

North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Wed (4/29) building to 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell peak Thurs AM (4/30) at 2.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0 ft) mid-AM. Swell holds on Fri (5/1) at 2.4 ft @ 12 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fade Sat (5/2) from 2.7 ft @ 11-12 secs (3.0 ft) early. Swell Direction: 308 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Sunday (4/26) swell from a gale previously in the Tasman Sea was supposedly hitting Hawaii (see Tasman Sea gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

Tasman Sea Gale
A gale developed in the Tasman Sea Thurs PM (4/16) producing 30-35 kts south winds with seas building. On Fri AM (4/17) south winds were 40 kts aimed well north right up the Tasman Sea with seas to 23 ft at 50S 153.5E aimed northeast. In the evening south winds were fading from 35-40 kts still aimed well north with seas 27 ft @ 46S 154.5E aimed northeast. The gale was fading Sat AM (4/18) with south winds 35 kts aimed well north with seas 25 ft at 40S 158.75E aimed northeast. The gale continued tracking slowly north in the evening with south winds fading from 30-35 kts positioned well west of the North Island of New Zealand and seas 23 ft at 39S 161E aimed north. On Sun AM the gale was stationary with south winds 30-35 kts and seas fading from 22 ft at 35S 159E aimed north. The gale to fade away after that. Something to monitor relative to Fiji and maybe Hawaii.

Oahu: Swell building Sun (4/26) to 1.2 ft @ 14-15 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (4/27) from 1.2 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 218 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Sat AM (5/2) another gale is to start building off Japan with 40 kts northwest winds and seas building from 21 ft at 40N 160E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to lift northeast with west winds 45 kts and seas 35 ft at 43.75N 164.25E aimed east. On Sun AM (5/3) west winds to be 45 kts with seas 39 ft at 45N 172E aimed east. In the evening the gale to be nearly on the dateline with west winds 40+ kts and seas 36 ft at 46.75N 177.75E aimed east. Something to monitor.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a small gale is forecast developing just southeast of New Zealand Wed AM (4/29) with southwest winds 45 kts over a tiny area and seas building from 24 ft at 52S 178E aimed northeast. In the evening the gael is to track east with southwest winds 45 kts and seas 31 ft at 54.25S 164.75W aimed east. On Thurs AM (4/30) the gael is to race southeast with 40 kts southwest winds and seas 30 ft at 56.25S 152.25W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to still be racing southeast with 40 kt west winds and seas 29 ft at 59.5S 139.75W aimed east. The gale is move into Antarctic Ice after that. Something to monitor.

Some degree of 35-40 kt west winds and 26-28 ft seas to follow 24 hours behind providing possibly secondary swell.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

El Nino Developing
Large Kelvin Wave #3 Pushing East - Kelvin Wave #4 Developing
In Nov '25 westerly anomalies associated with Active Phase of the MJO #1 took root producing a Kelvin Wave pushing warm subsurface waters east. In early January strong Active MJO #2 started producing a second WWB in the far West Pacific producing Kelvin Wave #2. Kelvin Waves #1 & #2 started impacted Ecuador in March. And in late Feb Active Phase #3 developed with strong west anomalies holding into 4/15. Large Kelvin Wave #3 is in flight now with a second pulse (Kelvin Wave #4) behind it. Lower pressure is building over the dateline and high pressure is building over the Maritime Continent. A full turn to El Nino is setting up over the equatorial Pacific.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Longterm Swell Forecast Overview (updated 3/29/26): In 2022 La Nina evolved with easterly anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and cooler water at the surface off Ecuador. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Active Phases of the MJO produced several Westerly Wind Bursts (WWB) and Kelvin Waves pushing east resulting in significant oceanic warming over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere by late July, and that spelled the demise of that event. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. The fading of this El Nino only resulted in the buildup of more latent heat energy in the ocean. By Jan 2024 the first signs of the normal reaction to El Nino (failed or not) resulted, with La Nina emerging, but never developed more than Modoki status through Fall 2025. And then in Dec 2025, an Active Phase of the MJO developed with westerly anomalies producing a small Kelvin wave, followed by a slightly stronger one in Feb 2026. And then on March 8, westerly anomalies started building in earnest in the far West Pacific, building to strong status in late March suggesting something more was occurring. The buildup of latent heat energy in the planets ocean seems to ensure it will not be denied.

Rationale: A Modoki La Nina developed in the Fall/Winter of 2024-25. It faded in Summer of 2025 then started turning toward La Nina again in Aug 2025. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina in late Aug, some form of weak La Nina built into the jetstream/atmosphere in late Fall (Dec 2025). But at the surface in the West Pacific a series of 3 Westerly Wind Bursts (WWB) occurred (Dec 26, Feb and then March 2026). Note that the PDO was still be in the cool phase in Fall/Winter 2025-26 but was showing signs of turning neutral as of the time of this writing (3/29/26). The two big unknowns are what will the PDO do (will it overwhelm whatever push there is towards and ENSO) and how much if any of Hunga Tonga volcanoes effect linger in the atmosphere?

Regardless, clear signs of the development of El Nino are present in the West Pacific and are starting to affect surface water temps along Ecuador driven by 2 Kelvin Waves (discussed above). And as third WWB started building as of March 8th with east anomalies starting to develop over the Maritime Continent (all classic signal of a developing El Nino) and a change in the Walker Circulation. All the model suggest some form of El Nino developing ranging from weak to strong if not super El NIno status in late Fall 2026. The million dollar question, is not will it evolve, but rather how strong will it be? Will it stall like the 2023 El Nino, of will it be given the chance to fully express what is likely the significant latent heat signature present in the ocean. El Nino is the planets way to bleed off that excess heat, by discharging it to the atmosphere. We are currently in the Spring Unpredictability Barrier (late March 2026). And though all the models are screaming 'El Nino', there is a significant uncertainty as to the strength of whatever El NIno event is to eventually manifest. It all depends upon whether the oceanic change become coupled wit the atmosphere. And that would be expressed through clear signals of a change in the Walker Circulation.

Assuming a moderate to strong event develops, and assuming the current strong WWB underway in the West Pacific continues somewhat as forecast (3 months of continued west anomalies with 6-8 weeks of very strong anomalies through the Spring of 2026), it seems some signature of this event will make it into the atmosphere starting mid-June 2026 (3 months post the start of the 3rd WWB). That should feed energy into the southern hemi jetstream improving the odds for gale development in the South Pacific to perhaps normal status and erasing the previous bias towards La Nina (and therefore less gale development). So prior to mid-June, a suppressed storm track is expected, but that should build after mid-June netting a "normal" summer swell pattern relative to Hawaii and CA. But, there are alot of caveats and 'buts' in the forecast, so confidence is not high,. And in fact, the effects of the WWB and Kelvin Waves might not develop till Aug 2026. It's just way too early to know with any certainty.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/25) 5 day average winds were weak east over the East Equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the dateline weakening to weak east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak west over the East Pacific, neutral over the Central Pacific and weak west over the dateline and the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (4/26) Today mostly weak east anomalies were filling the KWGA but with weak west anomalies on the dateline. The forecast has mostly weak east anomalies over the far West KWGA with weak west anomalies over the dateline then weak west anomalies start filling the KWGA 4/29 building to moderate status 5/1 and holding at moderate status through the end of the model run on 5/12. Previously anomalies had been moderate to strong west 3/26-4/17 and moderate west starting 3/8 for a total of 6 weeks duration.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO data: Today (4/26) in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was easing east from 172E to 176E. The 29 degree isotherm was steady at 170W. The 28 deg isotherm line was racing east from 133W to 100W. These are all major positive changes. The 24 deg isotherm was 125m deep at 140W and thickening steadily while pushing into Ecuador at 37m down with 25-28 deg temps building on top. Anomaly wise this strong change is reflected down at the thermocline (-150m) with a Kelvin Wave and +1 degs erupting to the surface in the East Pacific and +5-+6 deg anomalies in the West (building) centered at 142W with the leading edge at 120W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/18 reflects this strong change too with a huge Kelvin Wave at +4-5 degs anomalies at the thermocline (-150m) in the west between 180W-110W and +3-4 deg anomalies erupting to the surface in the East from 85W and points east of there but past its peak. A second Kelvin Wave was a depth from 180W to 145E. Warm anomalies continued filling the entire subsurface Pacific now. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (4/18) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were impressive and positive over the entire equatorial Pacific pushing into Ecuador and radiating north and south along the South American Coast. Kelvin Waves #1 & #2 have hit with +5-10 cms from the Galapagos into Ecuador and up to +10-15 cms moving north along the coast. Kelvin Wave #3 was filling the entire Equatorial Pacific from 100W to the dateline and Kelvin Wave #4 queued behind that from the 145E to the dateline with heights at +10-15 cms in both Kelvin Waves.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (4/18) indicates warm anomalies were filling the equatorial Pacific impacting Ecuador (80W). In December '25 warm anomalies and Kelvin Wave #1 started pushing east impacting Ecuador late Feb. Kelvin Wave #2 pushed east in Jan and is still impacting Ecuador now but past its prime. Kelvin Wave #3 is in-flight pushing east reaching 100W driven by westerly anomalies occurring now. And another kelvin Wave looks to be developing at 160E now. A weak sign of discharge was indicated in the west in late March and again mid-April and stronger late April and has not recharged to early March levels.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/24) In the latest image a developing sign of El Nino is suggested with warm anomalies filling the entire equator Pacific with very warm anomalies from Ecuador to a bit east of the Galapagos and moderate warm anomalies west of there to New Guinea. The ocean is showing clear signs of El Nino and the atmosphere will be 3 months behind (roughly mid-June). Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): This chart is now starting to show the development of El Nino too with warm anomalies on the equator from Ecuador to well west of the dateline, weakest near 140W but with cool anomalies south of the equator collapsing even there. Temps were warming markedly from the coast of Ecuador west to the Galapagos
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/24): Temps were weakly warming from the coast of Ecuador to the Galapagos. Temps were warming moderately from the Galapagos to 140W then warming weakly from there to the dateline. A major change appears to be setting up indicative of El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/26) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were fading some at +1.420, down from +1.754 on 4/23. Previously there were steady near +1.0 from 2/19-4/7. Before that temps had been on a generally upward trend since 2/2. Previously temps were +0.010 (1/28) up from -0.320 (1/22). Temps had been rising 1/1-1/16, previously down at -1.596 12/30, up at -0.820 (12/20), that up from -1.453 4 days previous (12/19) but had been falling steadily since 12/2.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/26) Today's temps were steady at +0.566 since 4/23, rising 10 days prior after reaching dead neutral (0.0) on 4/2, the first time in a very long time. Temps have been rising steadily since 1/11, at -1.267 12/27 falling from -0.922 (12/7), rising since 11/26.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were rising at +0.5 (4/15). Previously temps were +0.2 (3/25, 4/1 & 4/8), 0.0 degs (March 11 & 18), -0.1 (3 weeks 2/18-3/4), -0.2 (2/11), 0-0.5 (2/4), -0.4 (1/28), -0.3 (1/21), -0.7 (1/14), -0.8 (1/7), -0.5 (12/31), -0.7 (12/24), -0.8 (12/17), -0.7 (12/10), -0.5 (12/3),. -0.6 (11/26), -0.8 (11/19), -0.7 (11/5 & 11/12), -0.6 (10/15, 10/22 & 10/29), -0.3 (10/8), -0.5 (9/24 & 10/1), -0.4 (9/17), -0.5 (9/10), -0.3 (9/3), -0.4 (8/20 & 8/27).
Monthly Data is +0.05 March, -0.12 Feb, -0.41 Jan, -0.57 Dec, -0.64 Nov, -0.50 Oct, -0.45 Sept, -0.32 Aug, -0.10 July -0.01 June, -0.02 May, -0.02 April, +0.11 March, -0.28 Feb, -0.56 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0,72 (JFM), -0.88 (DJF), -0.97 (NDJ), -0.93 OND, -0.87 SON, -0.77 (ASO). -0.63 (JAS), -0.47 (JJA), -0.43 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-June. Temps started falling in mid-July down to -0.3 in Aug, -0.45 Sept and -0.40 in Oct. Sea Surface Temp Anomalies for Nov did NOT fall nearly as hard as previously forecast (forecast was -0.95 but actual was -0.7) and then did not fall in Dec (forecast at -7.0 actual was -0.6). but Dec was forecast at -0.6 and actuals were -0.75. Late Jan temps were -0.45 and -0.2 in Feb and 0.0 in March and +0.3 in April.
Forecast (4/26) - Temps are forecast rising dramatically from here forward, to +3.15 in Nov then +2.45 at the end of the model run on Jan 2027. At the other end of the spectrum the PDF & Spread Corrected forecast suggests the same trend but with temps rising to only +1.95 in Nov and +1.30 in Jan. It looks like we are moving into some flavor or El Nino, but split anywhere from strong to 'super' status.
IRI Consensus Plume: The April 20, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are rising fast at +0.622 today (AMJ). Temps to rise to +0.928 in MJJ and and 1.647 OND. This is up 0.5 degs since last month. The Dynamic model suggest temps rising to +2.060 OND then falling to +1.810 at the end of the model run. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to +1.298 MDJ and 1.265 at the end of the model run. Per the average of all models, we are at weak El Nino status today and moving to maybe minimal strong El Nino status in the Fall.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index is a lagging indicator the 30 day average lagging 15 days and the 90 day average lagging 45 days):
Today (4/26) the Daily Index was -28.05 and and has been effectively negative since 3/25 and a time very negative.
The 30 day average was falling from -9.61 and falling and +9.85 a month ago.
The 90 day average was falling some at +3.89 and in weak La Nina territory. It was +9.33 a month ago.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.56 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.80 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.13 and -2.03 in Dec 2024 and -1.29 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was steady in March 2026 at -1.44 and was Feb -1.01, Jan -1.26, Dec 2025 -0.96, -1.51 Nov, -2.37 Oct, -2.31 Sept (and in line with average readings since Nov 2021), -3.23 Aug after falling hard in July at -4.21 (the lowest ever), -2.64 June, -1.66 May, -1.15 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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ESPN Sports Center 'Ride of a Lifetime' - The backstory of Alo Slebir's possible 100+ ft wave at Mevericks - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table