Thursday, June 4, 2020
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 3.9 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.8 ft @ 14.8 secs from 183 degrees.
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.7 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 3.1 ft @ 7.4 secs from 78 degrees. Water temp 78.3 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.7 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 15.0 secs from 191 degrees. Wind at the buoy was east at 12-14 kts. Water temperature 62.1 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.7 ft @ 7.7 secs from 312 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.5 ft @ 15.7 secs from 205 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.8 ft @ 15.4 secs from 196 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 1.9 ft @ 16.0 secs from 189 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 11.3 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 8.8 ft @ 8.7 secs from 322 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 16-20 kts. Water temp 52.2 degs (013), 54.9 degs (012) and 57.0 degs (042).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Thursday (6/4) in North and Central CA locally generated north windswell was producing waves at chest high and soft and formless with warbled. Protected breaks were waist to chest high and clean but soft and mostly closed out. At Santa Cruz southern hemi swell was showing making for sets at chest to shoulder high and clean and lined up but inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to waist high and pretty ragged and formless and warbled with modest onshore winds. Central Orange County had waves at chest to maybe head high and inconsistent coming from the south but pretty warbled from southerly wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets in the head high to 1 ft overhead range and lined up and clean. North San Diego had waves at waist to maybe chest high and warbled from southerly wind. Hawaii's North Shore had some small waves at chest high and clean. The South Shore was getting southern hemi swell with waves chest to maybe head high and clean and lined up with light winds early. The East Shore was waist high and nearly chopped early from easterly trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Thursday (6/4) in Hawaii swell was fading from the third in a series of gales that formed Tues-Wed (5/27) under New Zealand lifting northeast with up to 33 ft seas aimed well northeast. And that swell was starting to show in California. A 4th stronger gale developed under New Zealand lifting northeast Sat-Mon (6/1) producing up to 46 ft seas aimed northeast resulting in more swell radiating northeast. So a nice little run of surf looks likely. A small gale is forecast on the eastern edge of the Southern CA swell window in the deep Southeast Pacific on Wed-Thurs (6/4) producing 33 ft seas aimed northeast. And maybe some weak gale is to pass east under New Zealand Tues-Wed (6/10) producing 31 ft seas aimed east. Otherwise no clearly defined swell producing weather systems are projected.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Tuesday (6/2) no swell of interest was in the water.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday (6/4) north winds are forecast at 25 kts for North CA early and 10 kts for Central CA building to 15 kts down to Monterey bay later. Fri (6/5) north winds are forecast at 20 kts early for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA early turning 15 kts for both later. Sat (6/6) light winds are forecast early turning north at 15 kts for Central CA later. Light rain possible for North CA north of Bodega Bay late afternoon and evening. Light snow down to Tahoe overnight with snow levels dropping to 6000 ft. On Sun (6/7) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts early for North CA early and 15 kts from the Golden Gate southward pushing 25 kts for Pt Conception and building to 15 kts for North CA later and 20 kts for the Golden Gate southward building to 30 kts for Pt Conception down to LA County. Rain fading through the day north of Bodega Bay. Light snow down to Yosemite through the day at higher elevations. Mon (6/8) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North CA early building going south over Pt Conception to 25 kts early and holding all day. Tues (6/9) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts for North CA south of Pt Reyes and 20+ kts south of Monterey Bay holding all day. Wed (6/10) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North CA and 20 kts early from Monterey bay south to Pt Conception holding all day. No change on Thurs (6/11).
Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 4, 5, 1 and 0 inches respectively.
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
On Thursday (6/4) the jetstream was split over the entirety of the South Pacific with the southern branch running west to east down at 60S not forming any trough capable of supporting gale development until it reached the far Southeast Pacific where the jet lurched north with south winds building to 150 kts forming a trough on the southeastern edge of the California swell window at 125W pushing north and offering good support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to move east of the California swell window mid-Thurs (6/4) with a ridge pushing in behind. A generic ridge like pattern is to hold over the Central South Pacific. But a weak trough is to start forming under New Zealand on Fri (6/5) and easing east into Mon (6/8) but with winds never exceeding 90 kts offering no real support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours a weak ridge is to be following under New Zealand but then quickly giving way to another weak trough under New Zealand Tues-Wed (6/10) tracking east and offering some weak support for gale development. Beyond a solid ridge is forecast setting up under New Zealand on Thurs (6/11) being fed by 150 kts winds actively suppressing support for gale development offering nothing but with it's leading edge possibly lifting northeast some perhaps opening a small window to support gale development east of the ridge over the Central South Pacific.
On Thursday (6/4) swell from another New Zealand gale was fading in Hawaii and starting to show in CA (see New Zealand Gale #3 below). And yet another gale pushed under New Zealand producing swell that is radiating northeast (see New Zealand Gale #4 below). A small gael formed in the far Southeast Pacific after that generating swell radiating north (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
New Zealand Gale #3
On Tues PM (5/26) a new gale started developing south-southeast of New Zealand with southwest winds at 40-45 kts and seas 33 ft at 59.5S 176.5E aimed northeast. On Wed AM (5/27) the fetch was lifting northeast over the Central South Pacific at 40 kts from the southwest with seas 33 ft at 51S 165W aimed northeast. The gale tracked northeast in the evening with fetch fading from 35 kts from the south over a broad area with seas 31 ft at 46S 158W aimed northeast over a solid area. The gale started fading Thurs AM (5/28) with a broad area of 30-35 kt southwest winds and seas 27 ft at 41S 149W pushing solidly northeast. In the evening the gale was fading with 30-35 kt southwest winds over a large area and seas fading from 27 ft at 49S 155W aimed northeast. Fetch is to be fading Fri AM (5/29) from 30-35 kts from the southwest over a fading area in the Southeast Pacific with seas 28 ft at 46S 141W aimed east-northeast. The gale is to fade from there. Something to monitor.
Hawaii: Swell fading on Thurs (6/4) from 3.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading Fri (6/5) from 2.3 ft @ 13-14 secs early (3.0 ft). Dribbles on Sat (6/6) fading from 1.9 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees
Southern CA: Swell building on Thurs (6/4) to 3.2 ft @ 17 secs later (5.0-5.5 ft). Swell continues on Fri (6/5) holding at 3.3 ft @ 15-16 secs (5.0 ft). Swell fading on Sat (6/6) from 3.0 ft @ 16 secs (4.5-5.0 ft). Swell fading Sun (6/7) from 2.3 ft @ 15 secs (3.0-3.5 ft) early. Dribbles on Mon (6/8) fading from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 203 degrees
North CA: Swell building on Thurs (6/4) to 2.7 ft @ 17 secs later (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell continues on Fri (6/5) holding at 2.9 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (6/6) from 2.5 ft @ 16 secs (4.0 ft). Swell fading Sun (6/7) from 2.4 ft @ 15 secs (3.5 ft). Dribbles on Mon (6/8) fading from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 201 degrees
New Zealand Gale #4
Another solid gale started building under New Zealand on Fri PM (5/29) producing 40-45 kt southwest winds over a solid area aimed northeast with 29 ft seas building at 58S 166E aimed east. On Sat AM (5/30) a solid area of 50 kt southwest winds were building south of New Zealand producing 43 ft seas at 60.5S 173E aimed east. The gale tracked east-northeast in the evening with 45-50 kts southwest winds over a solid area and seas 44 ft at 58.5S 171.5W aimed northeast. The gale continued east-northeast on Sun AM (5/31) with 40 kt southwest winds and seas 40 ft over a decent area aimed northeast at 56.5S 159W. The gale was fading in the evening with 35-40 kt southwest winds over a solid area aimed well northeast and seas fading from 33 ft at 54S 150W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading Mon AM (6/1) from 30-35 kts over a modest area aimed north with seas 29 ft at 52S 140W aimed northeast. Fetch was gone in the evening. Swell is radiating northeast through pushing mainly east of Hawaii.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sat (6/6) building to 1.6 ft @ 19 secs mid-day (3.0 ft) and holding. Swell fading some Sun AM (6/7) from 1.5 ft @ 17 secs (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Mon (6/8) fading from 1.1 ft @ 15 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (6/7) building to 1.6 ft @ 20-21 secs late (3.0 ft). Swell building on Mon (6/8) to 2.2 ft @ 18-19 secs late (4.0 ft). Swell continuing upwards on Tues (6/9) pushing 2.8 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-day (4.5 ft). Swell fading on Wed (6/10) from 2.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.0 ft). Residuals fading on Thurs (6/11) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 201 degrees
Northern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (6/7) building to 1.3 ft @ 21 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell building on Mon (6/8) to 1.8 ft @ 19 secs late (3.5 ft). Swell continuing upwards on Tues (6/9) pushing 2.1 ft @ 17 secs late afternoon (3.5 ft). Swell fading on Wed (6/10) from 2.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees
Southeast Pacific Gale
A small gale formed in the far Southeast Pacific on Wed PM (6/3) producing a broad area of 35-40 kt southwest winds aimed well northeast with seas 31 ft at 56S 123W. Fetch was fading Thurs AM (6/4) at 35-40 kts from the southwest lifting northeast with seas 31 ft at 52S 120W aimed northeast. The gale is to continue lifting northeast in the evening with 35 kt southerly winds but outside the CA swell window with seas 29 ft at 45S 111.5W targeting mainly Peru and Central America. The gale is to continue targeting Peru after that while fading.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/11) building to 2.3 ft @ 18 secs late (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 180 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/11) building to 1.6 ft @ 19 secs late (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 180 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
Beyond 72 hours a weak gale is forecast developing under New Zealand on Tues PM (6/9) producing west winds at 50 kts and seas building to 37 ft at 55S 154.5E but shadowed by Islands south of New Zealand. The gale is to push east on Wed AM (6/10) producing 40 kt west winds and seas 31 ft over a broad area aimed east at 57S 175E aimed east and no longer shadowed. Fetch is to be fading in the evening at 30-35 kts but still over a broad area producing 29-30 ft seas at 58S 175W aimed east. Maybe some secondary fetch to continue on Thurs AM (6/11) at 30-35 kts from the west with seas 31 ft at 55S 172.5W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.
La Nina Pattern Steady
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool had collapsed with warm water starting to build on the equator.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. Given all that, for 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the end of 2020 if not longer.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/3) 5 day average winds were solid from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific then still easterly but weaker at moderate strength over the Dateline and KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and weak easterly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (6/4) weak to modest east anomalies were mostly filling the KWGA. The forecast calls for easterly anomalies holding unchanged in the KWGA through 6/6, fading for a day or two, then starting to rebuild to the moderate category 6/8 holding solid through the end of the model run on 6/11. West anomalies were over the East Pacific today and are forecast to retrograde (drift west) into the far East KWGA to 6/7, then dissipating.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (6/3) A moderate Inactive MJO pattern was in the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Inactive Phase is to fade some on day 5 then fading and gone on day 10 and continuing on day 15. The dynamic model indicates exactly the same thing initially but with the Inactive Phase holding solid on day 10 and into day 15 unchanged still filling the KWGA.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/4) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was modest over Africa today and is to slowly ease east and weaken and all but gone over the Central Indian Ocean at day 15. The GEFS model suggests the Active Phase tracking east and collapsing over the Central Indian Ocean at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/4) This model depicts the Inactive Phase was weak over the West Pacific today and is to push east while slowly fading while moving over Central America on 6/24. A modest Active MJO is forecast developing over the far West Pacific 6/19 pushing slowly east and over the East Pacific and Central America at the end of model run on 7/14. A moderate Inactive Phase is to start building in the far West Pacific at that time.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/3) This model depicts no MJO signal was over the KWGA today with a mix of mostly west anomalies over the KWGA. The forecast indicates west anomalies exiting east of the KWGA by 6/6 with a neutral MJO following but with weak to modest east anomalies developing and then filling the KWGA starting 6/7 and if anything building in coverage continuing through the end of the model run on 7/1.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/4 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts a weak Inactive MJO was over the KWGA today with a mix if weak east and west anomalies indicated in the KWGA. The forecast depicts the Inactive MJO is to continue easing east through 7/2 with weak east and west anomalies forecast over the balance of the KWGA. But east anomalies are to set up over the East Pacific 6/10 and building steadily in coverage filling the East Pacific in early July and then holding steady for the foreseeable future. An Active MJO is forecast after that starting 7/6 building and holding through 8/15 with weak west anomalies in pockets filling the KWGA while east anomalies hold solid from the dateline eastward. A weak Inactive Phase is forecast to follow starting 8/16 holding through the end of the model run on 9/1. The low pass filter indicates no low or high pressure bias present in either the Indian Ocean or the Pacific for the moment. A high pressure bias is to appear over the East Pacific on 6/10 building in coverage through the end of the model run with a second contour setting up on 8/27 filling the bulk of the KWGA starting on 7/5. And at the same time the low pressure bias is to reappear over the Indian Ocean starting 7/26 building in coverage through the end of the model run. East anomalies that have been previously solid in the Indian Ocean are migrating east today into the Pacific are to set up on the dateline and points east of there by 6/10 and continuing if not building there for the foreseeable future. Based on this model it appears a clear transition to La Nina is starting today and is to become entrenched by mid-June.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/4) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was fading reaching east to 158E. The 29 deg isotherm was steady at 178E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 160W today. The 24 deg isotherm was no longer pushing into Ecuador but was reaching the surface at 115W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies 0-1 deg C were isolated to the West Pacific reaching east to 160W. There were no warm anomalies east of there. Cool anomalies were upwelling to the surface from a large subsurface pocket of cool water -3 degs 150 meters deep from 160W to 95W. It is likely poised to continue upwelling to the surface over the coming weeks. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 5/28 indicates the same thing with warm anomalies now gone in the East Pacific and with cool water at depth erupting in the east to the surface between 85W-170W at -5 degs C. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (5/28) Negative anomalies at -5 to -10 cms were over the equatorial Pacific between Ecuador and 170W and building in coverage, with neutral anomalies pushing west to 145E suggestive of a cool subsurface pool developing below the equator and growing in coverage. Negative anomalies were also now building along and down the coast of Peru and up the coast of Central America to Mexico. Positive anomalies at +5 cms were effectively gone over the entirety of the equatorial Pacific with remnants of a previous warm pattern reaching east to the dateline but only in the outer reaches of a horseshoe pattern indicative of cool water encroaching upon it firmly from the east on the equator.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/3) The latest images indicate cold water was building solidly over the equator from the Galapagos and now just off Ecuador the whole way west to the dateline, looking like the start of a La Nina pattern. Warm anomalies were modest off the coast of Chile up into Peru but weakening in patches. Warm water was also off Central America reaching west to the dateline but only north of the equator, remnants of a fading El Nino like pattern. Overall the cool pool on the equator was unmistakable.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/3): A generalized cooling trend was from Ecuador on the equator out to 120W. Pockets of warming from on the equator west of 125W to the dateline. The short term trend is looking like a push firmly towards the development of La Nina.
Hi-res Overview: (6/3) A stream of cool water was holding on the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline. Warmer than normal temps were along the coast of South and Central America but fading. Warmer than normal temps were stable north of the equator with cooler than normal water building on and south of the equator. Overall the data suggests a fading El Nino and a building La Nina.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/4) Today's temps were falling some to -0.495 today after previously falling to -0.810 on 5/27. Overall the trend is fading from a warmer range near +0.6 degs between 2/25-3/26.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/4) Temps were rising some to -0.183 after bottoming out at -0.595 on 5/27. Overall the trend is on a firm downward trajectory after previously being in the +0.3 degree range in Feb., and up to the +0.5-+0.6 degree range 3/12-4/8.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/4) Actual's indicate temperatures were in the +0.65 deg range 1/1/2020 through 4/1/2020 then started falling hard down to -0.25 in late-May. The forecast depicts temps continuing to fall, down to -0.55 July 1, then stabilizing somewhat thru the month then continuing on a slower downward trajectory into late Oct, reaching down to -1.00 and holding there through Dec, then starting to rebound in early 2021. According to this model sea surface temps should be falling strongly moving towards La Nina as Summer develops. All objective evidence indicates this is in-fact occurring.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 20, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at +0.20 degs, and are to slow fade to neutral +0.00 in July 2020, then holding there through December 2020. The outliers are the dynamic models (NCEP CFS, NASA GMAO and the COLA CCSM4) all suggesting solid La Nina. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (6/4): The daily index was negative today at -33.39. The 30 day average was falling to +0.77. The 90 day average was rising to -1.81, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was in control.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): April 2020 -0.62, March -0.11, Feb +0.69, Jan +0.42, Dec 2019 +0.46, Nov +1.03, Oct +0.27 Sept +1.11, August +0.60, July +0.75, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.30, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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