Wednesday, June 13, 2018
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance): Seas were 2.3 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 0.9 ft @ 12.7 secs from 155 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.7 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 15.4 secs from 197 degrees. Wind at the buoy was south at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 65.5 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 3.4 ft @ 9.3 secs from 275 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.7 ft @ 15.1 secs from 201 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 2.3 ft @ 15.5 secs from 214 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.9 ft @ 15.6 secs from 196 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 10.9 ft @ 9.1 secs with northwest windswell 9.2 ft @ 9.3 secs from 310 degrees and southern hemi swell 2.3 ft @ 15.6 secs from 197 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 12-16 kts. Water temp 51.4 degs.
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Wednesday (6/13) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing surf at 1-2 ft overhead and very warbled and wonky but not fully white capped early. Protected breaks were chest to head high and reasonably clean early but still a bit warbled. At Santa Cruz southern hemi swell was down considerably from days previous with sets chest high or so and clean but very inconsistent. In Southern California up north north windswell was producing surf at thigh to waist high on the sets and clean but slow. In North Orange Co southern hemi swell was hitting and south wind had finally laid down with sets 1-2 ft overhead and clean and lined up and looking pretty good. South Orange Country's best breaks were also finally clean with southern hemi swell producing sets in the 1-2 ft overhead range and lined up with good form but generally slow as has been the case throughout this swell. In North San Diego surf was head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up and clean but a bit on the closed out side. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was flat to thigh high and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at thigh to waist high and heavily textured by modest easterly trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Wednesday (6/13) southern hemi Swell #2S was fading in California produced from a decent gale previously in the deep Central South Pacific Fri-Sat (6/2) pushing north producing seas to 37 ft with secondary fetch Sun (6/3) adding more 37-40 ft seas on top pushing northeast. Locally generated northwest windswell was hitting solidly at exposed northwest facing breaks in California. A broader but weak system traversed the Southwest Pacific Thurs-Sat (6/9) but only produced 28-30 ft seas aimed mainly east with little hope for meaningful swell to result. The tropics are active but with noting expected in the the Hawaii or California swell windows. A cutoff low is developed Sun-Mon (6/11) in the Central South Pacific with a tiny area of 28 ft seas aimed north. After that nothing else of interest is forecast until maybe Tues-Wed (6/20) when a broad complex gale is forecast developing southeast of New Zealand perhaps generating 38-40 ft seas aimed well northeast. And locally produced northwest windswell is in the forecast for exposed breaks in California through Sun (6/17).
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Wednesday AM (6/13) local sizeable but junky short period northwest windswell was producing rideable surf at exposed breaks mainly in California and less so in Hawaii.
A late season low pressure system developed off the Kuril Islands on Sun PM (6/10) generating northwest winds at 35 kts and 22 ft seas over a tiny area at 44N 167E targeting Hawaii but a long ways away. northwest fetch held while tracking east on Mon Am (6/11) with seas building to 24 ft over a small area at 44N 171E. The gael fading in the evening with seas fading from 20 ft at 42N 174E. Small swell is possible for Hawaii.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Fri (6/15) peaking near sunset at 2.9 ft @ 13 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading Sat AM (6/16) from 3.1 ft @ 11-12 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 317 degrees
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast except for more local windswell mainly for California.
California: On Wednesday (6/13) high pressure at 1028 mbs was centered 1100 nmiles west of Central CA ridging east and producing the standard pressure gradient along the California coast focused near San Francisco resulting in north winds there at 25 kts and 20 kt northwest winds reaching south to Morro Bay generating raw local short period north windswell. The gradient is to lift north on Thursday (6/14) focused on Cape Mendocino generating 30 kt northwest winds with 20 kt northwest winds down to the Golden Gate and 156 kts north winds down to Pt Conception generating more raw windswell for the entire North and Central Coast. More of the same is expected on Friday (6/15) but with perhaps a week eddy flow (south winds) nearshore for Central CA. More of the same expected on Sat (6/16) too but with the gradient fading later in the day. See QuikCASTs for details.
Hawaii: On Wednesday (6/13) the same high pressure system above was generating a solid fetch of east winds at 15 kts reaching from California to Hawaii generating limited east windswell along exposed east facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands. That fetch is to start breaking up on Thurs (6/14) with odds of windswell production starting to fade out. After that no fetch and no windswell of interest is forecast. See QuikCASTs for details.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Tropical Storm Bud on Wed (6/13) was 240 nmiles south of Cabo San Lucas Mexico with winds 60 kts and fading while tracking north. It is expected to impact Cabo early evening on Thurs (6/14) with winds 35 kts. At no time was Bud ever in the California swell window. Swell is to be limited to Cabo and areas east and south of there.
Ex Tropical Storm Maliksi on Wed (6/13) had dissipated east of North Japan on Tues (6/12) and was becoming absorbed in a cold core low pressure system in the same area. No swell from Maliksi is expected for Hawaii or California.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Wed AM (6/13) a pressure gradient generated by high pressure at 1026 mbs 1100 nmiles west of Central CA was producing north winds at up to 30 kts over Pt Reyes with 20 kt north winds down to San Francisco and 15 kt north winds down to Morro Bay and expected to hold into the evening. On Thurs (6/14) the gradient is to lift north with north winds 30 kts over Pt Arena and north winds 20 kts down to Pt Conception. Friday (6/15) north winds to be 30 kts over all of North CA with a weak eddy flow starting to develop from Pt Reyes southward. More of the same is forecast on Sat (6/16). Sunday (6/17) the gradient is to fade out with no winds exceeding 15 kts over nearshore California waters by late morning. Light winds to hold Monday and then a weak northerly flow is to start building on Tues (6/19) with north winds 15 kts over all of North and Central CA waters later. Wednesday (6/20) a persistent 15 kts north flow is to continue over all of North and Central CA nearshore waters.
On Wednesday (6/13) the southern branch of the jetstream was pushing under New Zealand down at 65S tracking weakly east at 100 kts then lifting north some over the Southeast Pacific forming a weak trough supportive of low pressure development. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to slowly build with winds to 110 kts while tracking east moving to the edge of California swell window on Fri (6/15) and providing better support for gale development before moving east of the CA swell window on Sat (6/16) targeting mainly Chile. Back over the West Pacific a ridge is to be in control offering no support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours a trough is to start building south of New Zealand on Sun (6/17) with north winds at 150 kts feeding the trough offering increased support for gale development. That trough is to continue east into Tues (6/19) then start fading as wind energy drops feeding the trough but the apex of the trough is to be impacting the northern branch of the jet with winds there to 190 kts, offering continued support for gale development and continuing east through Wed (6/20). If the models hold, decent support for gale development is possible.
On Wednesday (6/13) swell from a decent gale that pushed northeast from the deep South Central Pacific was fading in California (see South Pacific Gale below). Also a broad but weak system traversed the South Pacific Wed-Fri (6/8) producing 28-30 ft seas (see Weak Southwest Pacific Gale below). And a better cutoff gale developed in the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific (See Central Pacific Cutoff Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. On Thurs PM (6/14) a gale is to be building in the far Southeast Pacific with 40 kt southwest winds and seas building to 29 ft at 52.2S 135.5W. On Fri AM (6/15) fetch is to be fading from 40 kts and on the edge of the CA swell window with seas 27 ft at 50S 124W aimed northeast. This system is to move east of the CA swell window after that. But a second fetch is to develop right behind it on Fri PM (6/15) with 45 kt southwest winds and seas building to 29 ft at 58S 128W. On Sat AM (6/16) 55 kt southwest winds to be east of the SCal swell window with 43 ft seas at 54S 113.5W, again east of the SCal swell window. Low odds of small sideband swell radiating north towards SCal.
South Pacific Gale (Swell #2S)
A new gale developed in the deep Central South Pacific on Fri AM (6/1) generating a decent sized area of 45 kt south winds with seas building from 30 ft at 62S 163.5W. In the evening the fetch is to lift north with a broader core of 45 kt south winds with 36 ft seas over a building area at 58S 157.5W. On Sat AM (6/2) 40 kt south winds continued lifting north with seas 37 ft at 53.5S 151W. In the evening southwest fetch rapidly faded to 30 kts and seas fading from 32 ft at 49S 150W as a new fetch started developing southwest of the original fetch producing south winds at 45 kts over a solid area and sea built from 36 ft at 58S 167W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (6/3) 45 kt south winds were lifting northeast with seas 38 ft at 54S 155W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was fading from 40-45 kts from the southwest with seas 38 ft at 50S 144W. On Mon AM (6/4) fetch was fading from 35 kts with seas 33 ft at 48.5S 138W aimed northeast. This system faded from there. Something to monitor.
Southern CA: Swell fading Wed (6/13) from 3.1 ft @ 15 secs (4.5 ft). Residuals on Thurs (6/140 fading from 2.5 ft @ 14 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 198-204 degrees centered on 200 degrees
North CA: Swell fading Wed (6/13) from 2.4 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Residuals on Thurs (6/14) fading from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 196-202 degrees centered on 198 degrees
Weak Southwest Pacific Gale
On Wed PM (6/6) a broad low pressure system developed southeast of New Zealand generating 35-40 kt west winds over a broad area just north of the Ross Ice Shelf aimed east with seas building to 29 ft at 58S 175.5E. On Thurs AM (6/7) winds were southwest at 35 kts while tracking east with seas building to 31 ft at 57S 172W. In the evening southwest winds continued at 30-35 kts over a broad area aimed east-northeast with seas 29 ft at 57S 160W. On Fri AM (6/8) fetch was start to fade from the west at 30-35 kts with seas 27 ft down at 60S 147W. In the evening fetch was fading from 30 kts over a smaller area aimed east with 27 ft seas fading at 63S 130W. This system was gone after that. Something to monitor.
Hawaii: Small background swell is expected to arrive on late Wed (6/13) building to 1 ft @ 18-19 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell building some on Thurs (6/14) pushing 1.5 ft @ 16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell holding on Fri (6/15) at 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195-200 degrees
Southern CA: Small background swell arriving on Fri (6/15) pushing 1.1 ft @ 15-16 secs late (1.5 ft). Additional energy arriving on Sat (6/16) building to 1.5 ft @ 18 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185-208 degrees
Central Pacific Cutoff Gale
On Sat PM (6/9) a gale developed south of Tahiti producing a small area of south winds at 35-40 kts aimed north with seas building from 26 ft over a tiny area at 36S 152W. On Sun AM (6/10) south fetch was holding at 35-40 kts with seas building to 29 ft at 34.5S 149W aimed due north. In the evening fetch was fading from 35 kts from the south and stationary with seas holding at 28 ft at 32.5S 148.5W aimed north. Fetch faded Mon AM (6/11) from 30 kts from the south and seas fading from 24 ft at 30.5S 147W. This system was gone after that. Given this systems rather north position, and therefore closer proximity to California and Hawaii some decent swell could result for Tahiti, Hawaii and California.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Fri (6/15) building to 1.6 ft @ 16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell building Sat (6/16) to 2.5 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.5 ft). Residuals fading on Sun (6/17) from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs 2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Mon (6/18) fading from 1.5 ft @ 12-13 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction 178 degrees
South CA: Expect swell arrival late on Sat (6/16) pushing 1.8 ft @ 17-18 secs (3.0 ft). Swell building on Sun (6/17) pushing 2.5 ft @ 16 secs (4.0 ft). Swell continues on Mon (6/18) at 2.6 ft @ 15 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Residuals on Tues (6/19) fading from 2.3 ft @ 14 secs (3.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed (6/20) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 205 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival late on Sat (6/16) pushing 1.4 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.5 ft). Swell building on Sun (6/17) pushing 2.0 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell continues on Mon (6/18) at 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Residuals on Tues (6/19) fading from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed (6/20) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 203 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
California: Sunday 96/17) the gradient is to be limited to extreme North California early with north winds 20 kts and windswell production fading fast and gone by mid-day. After that high pressure is to be held at bay by low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska with no meaningful northwest winds or high pressure forecast until Wed (6/20).
Hawaii: No windswell is forecast through Wed (6/20).
On Tues AM (6/19) a building complex fetch of 40-45 kt south winds is to start developing southeast of New Zealand aimed north with seas to 33 ft at 45.5S 177.5W. Fetch is to consolidate some in the evening at 45 kts aimed northeast with up to 36 ft seas at 47S 168W. On Wed AM (6/20) 45 kt southwest winds to continue pushing northeast with 36 ft seas at 45S 155W aimed northeast. in the evening more 45 kt west-southwest winds are to continue east with 42 ft seas at 43S 142.5W aimed mainly east.
And another fetch is to be developing behind that southeast of New Zealand on Wed PM (6/20). something to monitor.
More details to follow...
NINO 3.4 Temps Turn Positive
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and have not stopped, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and was building over equatorial waters in early June, suggesting the demise of La Nina.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2018 - Swell Generation Potential (for California & Hawaii) = 4.0
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Tues (6/12) 5 day average winds were from the east over the bulk of the equatorial Pacific but weaker over the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were neutral to slightly westerly over the equatorial East Pacific and neutral over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (6/13) Light west anomalies were over the core of the KWGA and strong west anomalies were east of the KWGA filling the entire equatorial East Pacific. The forecast suggests east anomalies are to develop weakly over far west KWGA 6/15 through the end of the forecast period 6/20 while solid west anomalies hold from the dateline to Ecuador. In shore a neutral MJO signal looks to hold for the next week.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (6/12) A dead neutral MJO signal was over the KWGA. The statistical model depicts a neutral MJO signal is to hold except maybe turning weakly Inactive on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts the same thing but with the Inactive Phase possibly developing at day 10 in the far West Pacific building east and filling the KWGA by day 15. The models are relatively in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/13) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was very weak over the Maritime Continent and is to track east and remain exceedingly weak eventually positioned over the central Indian Ocean at day 15. The GEFS model depicts the same thing but with the MJO stronger over the West Indian Ocean at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model: (6/13) This model depicts a neutral MJO signal over the equatorial Pacific. The Inactive Phase is to develop over the West Pacific on 6/28 easing slow east to the dateline at the end of the model run on 7/23). Basically a steady state frozen pattern is to set up per this model.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/12) East anomalies are to rebuild in the far West KWGA on 6/15 holding through 6/22. while strong west anomalies hold on the dateline east to Ecuador. Then weak east anomalies are to develop over the bulk of the KWGA on 6/26 continuing through the end of the model run on 7/10 and also holding over most of the East Pacific. That should significantly damped upwelling in the NINO3.4 area and feed warm water buildup associated with a large Kelvin Wave starting to erupt there now.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/13) This model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was over the KWGA with neutral anomalies in control of the KWGA. The Active Phase of the MJO is to be fading and gone over the KWGA 6/21. After that weak west anomalies are forecast filling the KWGA even though the Inactive Phase is to be in control 6/22-7/10. The Active Phase is to follow 7/20 through 9/10 with west anomalies building solid in the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias is fully in control of the KWGA reaching east to 145W and forecast to hold if not ease east some for the foreseeable future and building from 2 contour lines to 3 starting 7/23. This is good news for the coming Fall-Winter season. The high pressure bias is limited to an area south of California and shrinking at the end of the model run and moving inland over California. The La Nina bias is gone. The expectation is that the atmosphere and ocean will begin to be coupled 3 months after the start of the transition or on 8/8 (low pressure bias officially filled the KWGA starting on 5/8) in a more favorable configuration to support storm production in the Pacific.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/13) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs reaching east to 165E. The 28 deg isotherm line is easing east some again today after previously moving from the dateline last winter to 165W on 5/15 then to 160W on 5/22 and 159W on 5/29. Today it is at 159W from the surface to 75 meters deep. The 24 deg isotherm was stable at 115 meters deep at 140W and 75 meters deep at 120W rising to 40 meters into Ecuador. Anomaly wise in the East Pacific negative temperatures are gone as warm waters from a Kelvin Wave are building in from the west at depth. Warm anomalies at depth were moving east at +3.0 degs at 135W down 100 meters pushing and reaching east to the Galapagos. These waters are starting to breach the surface from 125W and points east of there. It appears the Kelvin Wave is gaining eastward momentum an starting to erupt at the oceans surface. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/7 depicts a large Kelvin Wave starting at 160W at +3.5 degs extending unbroken to the east to 100W with lesser warm water reaching the Ecuadorian coast. The warm pool was breaching the surface between 95W-135W. No residual cool water from La Nina are indicated. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/7) Positive anomalies were solid from the West Equatorial Pacific at +5 cms reaching from New Guinea to the Galapagos with no breaks and then reaching east to Ecuador. No negative anomalies were indicated except just off the coast of northern Peru. The La Nina cool pool is gone.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/12) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate very weak localized cool anomalies along the immediate coast of Peru and very shallow. But of more significance was a building area of warm water erupting on the oceans surface on the equator from the Galapagos west to 140W and also over a broad but weak pocket south of the equator between 90W to 115W. A broad area of warming was also filling the area south of Mexico and out to the dateline. The remnants of the La Nina cool pool were south of the equator between 115W-170W and south of 4S and all but gone.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/12): A pocket of warming was over the Galapagos and also off Ecuador. A weak warming trend was also indicated from 125W to the dateline Generic weak spotty cooling was off the immediate Peru coast.
Hi-res Overview: (6/12) A slightly more coherent pocket of cool water was indicated along the immediate coast of Peru. Otherwise warm water was building on the equator over the Galapagos and west from there to the dateline from 4S up to 20N and building in coherence. Weak warming was also further off the coast of Peru to 115W and reaching north to the equator. The only cool water was in the fading remnant pocket from La Nina limited to an area south of the equator between 115W-165W and south of 4S and steadily loosing density and drifting west.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/13) Today's temps were falling some at -0.974, down from -0.428 on 6/7, up from -0.819 on 5/22, and that down from a recent peak rising to +0.459 on 5/13. This is part of a larger rising trend that started 4/10 indicative of the collapse of La Nina. Overall temps had been steadily marching upwards since late December.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/13) Today temps were rising sharply some at +0.257, up from -0.151 on 6/7. This is the first positive reading in over a year. Previously temps were -0.266 on 6/2, -0.427 on 5/12 after having reached up to -0.254 degs on 5/1. Temps have been steadily rising since 3/27 when they were down at -1.2 degs.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/11) The forecast depicts temps bottomed out at -0.75 in Nov 2017 and have been slowly rising since, up to -0.5 in mid-March and -0.30 in early April. The forecast calls for a steady increase from here forward with neutral temps now, pushing up to +0.50 degs on July 1 and rising in early Oct to +0.95 degs and +1.10 degs in Nov and holding there into the Jan 2019 timeframe. This suggests La Nina is gone and that perhaps El Nino is to build through the Summer and Fall of 2018. Most other models are also suggesting a possible turn to minimal weak El Nino conditions by late Fall.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-May Plume depicts temps at 0.0 degs as of 5/18 and are to slowly rise from here forward, to +0.4 in August and +0.7 in November and +0.8 in December hold there. See chart here - link. It looks like La Nina is fading out and a weak El Nino might develop. The CFSv2 is in the low end of that pack.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (negative is good, positive bad) (6/13): The daily index was falling today at -13.71. The 30 day average was falling today at +1.06 suggesting the Inactive Phase of the MJO was fading. The 90 day average was falling some at +2.85 suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was holding in the atmosphere or biased weakly towards La Nina but even that bias was fading. This is expected for a month or two more.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (6/13) Today the index was rising some at -0.70 after dropping to -1.04 on 6/5, down from -0.70 on 5/20 and -0.60 on 5/17, and the high of -0.36 on Fri (5/11) and -0.38 on Thurs (5/10), down from -0.35 on 4/26, but up from -1.02 on 4/5 and up from -1.13 on 3/27. The trend is upward but still less than the -0.33 reading in late Feb. That was was up from -1.11 on 1/29. The trend suggests La Nina is not gone, but fading steadily. Last years La Nina reached -1.94 on 11/2/16 and then fell to -2.20 on 6/28/17. It held pretty negative through Jan 2018. This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina events. The goal is to have it rise to at least -0.5 before a significant change could be suggested.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: April 2017=+0.53, May=+0.29, June=+0.21, July= -0.50, Aug= -0.62, Sept = -0.25, Oct= -0.61, Nov = -0.45, Dec= -0.13, Jan 2018=+0.29, Feb= -0.10, Mar= -0.51, April = -0.85, May =-0.61. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.77, Feb = +0.70, Mar = +0.74, April=+1.12, May=+0.88, June=+0.79, July=+0.10, Aug=+0.09, Sept = +0.32, Oct=+0.05, Nov = +0.15, Dec = +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar = -0.05. No negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
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Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table