Thursday, June 13, 2019
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/ Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 3.2 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 13.2 secs from 198 degrees.
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.4 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 2.6 ft @ 8.1 secs from 260 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 13.7 secs from 171 degrees. Wind at the buoy was south at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 64.6 degs. At Harvest (Buoy 071) primary swell was 1.7 ft @ 13.2 secs from 193 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 13.2 secs from 214 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 1.1 ft @ 15.7 secs from 210 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.0 ft @ 13.1 secs from 199 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 13.6 secs from 191 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was southeast at 4-6 kts. Water temp 58.3 degs (042) and 55.0 degs (013).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Thursday (6/13) in North and Central CA there was no rideable surf with heavy southerly texture on top. Protected breaks were flat and clean. At Santa Cruz southern hemi swell was wrapping in producing waves at waist to chest high on the sets and clean. In Southern California/Ventura windswell was producing waves at thigh to maybe waist high on the sets and textured and soft. In North Orange Co surf was head high to maybe 1 ft overhead and lined up and pushing out of the south and textured from north wind. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were getting southern hemi background swell with waves chest high and clean but soft. North San Diego had surf at waist high and crumbled and textured and soft. Hawaii's North Shore was getting northwest windswell with waves waist to maybe chest high and clean. The South Shore was getting background swell with waves waist to maybe chest high and clean. The East Shore was getting no east windswell with waves thigh high or so and heavily textured from light east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Thursday (6/13) in California background southern hemi swell was making for rideable surf at best exposed breaks. Hawaii was getting minimal swell from a gale that previously tracked through the Tasman Sea with seas to 36 ft aimed north. A larger gale tracked northeast from under New Zealand Fri-Sat (6/8) with seas to 39 ft putting swell in the water that is radiating northeast towards Hawaii and California. And another gale developed while tracking east under New Zealand Tues-Wed (6/12) with 39 ft seas aimed east. but beyond nothing else of interest is forecast.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast other than local windswell (see below).
On Thursday (6/13) no windswell production was occurring for CA or HI though north winds are to start building over Cape Mendocino at 15-20 kts late. On Fri (6/14) north winds to build in coverage some at 20-25 kts down to the Golden Gate offering only minimal windswell potential down to that point. Otherwise north winds to be 10 kts for Central CA waters. Trades are to remain below 15 kts for waters east of Hawaii offering nothing. On Saturday (6/15) north winds to build slightly in coverage over North CA waters at 20-25 kts reaching south to off the Golden Gate offering minor windswell potential for North and Central CA but with light north winds 10 kts nearshore for Central CA and 15 kts off the coast. Trades are to be 10-15 kts east of the Big Island of Hawaii but not north of there offering only limited east windswell potential mainly for the Big Island. On Sun (6/16) the usual summertime pressure gradient is to be in place along the North CA coast with north winds 20-25 kts down to Bodega Bay producing windswell down to maybe Big Sur. Local winds to be light northwest for Central CA. For Hawaii east trades to be building in coverage at 15 kts extending over 800 nmiles east of the Hawaiian Islands offering small short period east windswell for exposed east facing shores.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical weather systems of interest are forecast.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday (6/11) a weak pressure and wind pattern is was in place along the California coast with winds 10 kts or less. Wed -Thurs (6/13) a light flow (10 kts or less) is forecast for all nearshore waters of the CA coast but turning northwest at 15 kts late afternoon limited to Cape Mendocino. Fri (6/14) light winds to continue for for all of Central CA and North CA up to Pt Arena but north at 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino. Sat (6/15) north winds to be 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino down to Pt Arena and 15 kts to Bodega bay but light elsewhere south of there. Sun (6/16) north winds are to be 25 kts for all of North CA and light over Central CA. Monday (6/17) north winds to be 30 kts for all of North CA and light for Central CA. More of the same on Tues (6/18) but north wind 30-35 kts and winds light south (eddy flow) for all of Central CA.
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).
On Thursday (6/13) the jetstream was split with the influential southern branch ridging south to 70S and sweeping east over Antarctic Ice and expected to be reaching the Southeast Pacific by evening offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the ridge is to hold in the west while a new trough tries to develop over the Southeast Pacific but pinched off offering very little if any support for gale development there, but getting reinforced on Sunday (6/16) opening up more area and offering some better support for gale development being fed by 110 kts winds but mostly east of even the Southern CA swell window. Back to the west the ridge is to hold solidly pushing south to 65-70S and sweeping east actively suppressing support for gale development there. Beyond 72 hours starting Monday (6/17) the ridge is to push east filling the entire South Pacific and undercutting the trough in the far Southeast Pacific offering no support for gale development. Some flavor of the ridging pattern is to continue filling the South Pacific through the end of the model run on Thurs (6/20). The Inactive Phase of the MJO is likely implicated in driving this ridge.
A gale developed in the Tasman Sea tracking northeast east generating swell that is hitting Hawaii (see Tasman Sea Gale below). Another gale built under New Zealand lifting northeast producing swell pushing towards Hawaii and CA (see New Zealand Gale below). And another gale formed south of New Zealand pushing east producing potential for sideband swell radiating northeast (see Southwest Pacific Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
Tasman Sea Gale
A gale started developing south of Tasmania Wed AM (6/5) with 45 kt southwest winds and seas 38 ft at 49.5S 152.0 E aimed northeast targeting Fiji well. Fetch continued tracking northeast into the Tasman Sea in the evening but fading to 35 kts from the south-southwest with seas 34 ft at 46S 160E aimed well at Fiji. On Thurs AM (6/6) the fetch was just west if not impacting New Zealand at 30 kts aimed north-northeast with seas fading from 29 ft at 42.5S 167W aimed like the wind. The gale and seas faded from there. Possible swell to result for Fiji and the surrounding area.
Hawaii: Filtered swell is to pass Fiji pushing towards Hawaii and arriving on Thurs (6/13) and building to 1.9 ft @ 16 secs late (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri AM (6/14) from 1.8 ft @ 15 secs (2.5 ft) and being overtaken by New Zealand swell (see below).
New Zealand Gale
On Thurs PM (6/6) a gale started pushing east under New Zealand with 40-45 kt west winds aimed east with seas building to 36 ft at 59S 156E aimed east (214 degs SCal, 216 degs NCal and not shadowed for both). On Fri AM (6/7) fetch started turning and lifting northeast at 45 kts from the southwest over a broader and solid area producing 39 ft seas at 58S 166E aimed east-northeast (214 degs SCal and shadowed by Tahiti, 215 degs NCal and not shadowed). In the evening the gale was just south-southeast of New Zealand with southwest winds 40-45 kts over a solid area aimed north-northeast with seas 38 ft at 54.5S 172.5E (214 degs SCal and shadowed, 215 degs NCal and not shadowed) aimed northeast. On Sat AM (6/8) the gale was tracking northeast just off the coast of New Zealand with 30-35 kt south winds over a large area aimed north-northeast with seas fading from 33 ft at 52S 179.5E aimed northeast (214 degs SCal and shadowed, 212 degs NCal and not shadowed). In the evening the gale pushed north and reconsolidated east of North New Zealand producing 30-35 kt south winds over a solid area with a new core developing at 40+ kts and seas 28 ft at 50S 174W mainly from the original fetch (213 degs Scal and shadowed, 211 degs NCal and not shadowed). On Sun AM (6/9) the gale held stationary still producing a small area of 30-35 kts south winds aimed north with seas 24 ft over a small area at 38S 162W aimed northeast (214 degs SCal and shadowed, 211 degs NCal and becoming shadowed by Tahiti) and no longer of interest. The gale faded and fell southeast from there.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Fri AM (6/14) with period 19+ secs and size building steadily through the day to 2.6 ft @ 18 secs later (4.5 ft with sets to near 6.0 ft). Swell peaking on Sat AM (6/15) at 3.0 ft @ 16 secs (4.5 ft with sets to 6.0 ft) early. Swell fading Sun (6/16) from 2.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Residuals on Mon (6/17) fading from 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles on Tues (6/18) fading from 1.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 196 degrees
South CA: Expect swell arrival late on Sun (6/16) building to 1.6 ft @ 19 secs (3.0 ft). On Mon (6/17) swell building to 2.6 ft @ 17-18 secs (4.5 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell peaking on Tuesday (6/18) at 2.6 ft @ 16 secs (4.0 ft with set to 5.5 ft). Swell fading on on Wed (6/19) from 2.3 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5 ft).Swell Direction: 213-214 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival late on Sun (6/16) building to 1.6 ft @ 19 secs (3.0 ft). On Mon (6/17) swell building to 2.4 ft @ 17-18 secs (4.0 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell peaking on Tuesday (6/18) at 2.2 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.5 ft with set to 4.5 ft). Swell fading on on Wed (6/19) from 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 211-216 degrees
Southwest Pacific Gale
On Tues AM (6/11) a gale developed due south of New Zealand with 40-45 kt west-southwest winds with seas building to 31 ft at 62.5S 170E. In the evening 45 kt west-southwest winds were lifting northeast with seas building to 38 ft at 60.5S 178W free and clear of the Ross Ice Shelf. On Wed AM (6/12) the gale continued east-northeast with 40 kt west-southwest winds solid in coverage and seas 38 ft at 59.5S 163.5W aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch faded from 30-35 kts over a solid area aimed northeast with 32 ft seas at 57.5S 153.5W aimed east-northeast. On Thurs AM (6/13) the gale continued northeast with 35 kts southwest winds and seas 28 ft at 57S 142.5W aimed northeast. The gale is to fade from there. Something to monitor. Small swell is radiating northeast.
Hawaii: Small sideband swell is to radiate northeast arriving on Wed (6/19) at 1.3 ft @ 17 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (6/20) from 1.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 193 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/20) building through the day to 2.0 ft @ 19 secs later (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees
Northern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/20) building through the day to 1.3 ft @ 20 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 198 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
On Monday (6/17) high pressure is to be building in solid at 1028 mbs 800 nmiles east of San Francisco with the pressure gradient building over North CA with north winds 25-30 kts solid and 20 kt north winds reaching south to a point west of Morro Bay resulting in building windswell for all of North and Central CA. East fetch is to continue from there at 15 kts extending in patches the whole way to Hawaii resulting in building east windswell there and intensifying later in the day. On Tues (6/18) the gradient is to be very solid with north winds 30-35 kts for most of North CA and 20-25 kts extending south off the coast for all of Central CA making for building windswell along the North and Central CA coast. East fetch to build in solid at 15 kts extending from CA to Hawaii with decent east windswell expected into east facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands. On Wed (6/19) the gradient is to hold with 35-40 kt north winds over Cape Mendocino and20 kts extending off of Monterey Bay resulting in windswell for all of North and Central CA. Trades to continue solid at 15 kts from California to a the Hawaiian Islands resulting in windswell along east facing shores. On Thurs (6/20) the gradient is to start fading but still solid producing 30-35 kt north winds off Cape Mendocino producing windswell radiating south but light winds if not an eddy flow (south winds) for Central CA and up to nearly Pt Arena. East winds relative to Hawaii are to fade to 10 kts but windswell from previous fetch is likely to still be radiating into east facing shores of the Islands.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
Active MJO Forecast - El Nino Forecast To Hold
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and did not stop, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June warm water was fading and the outlook did not favor El Nino come Fall.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2019 = 5.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that weak borderline El Nino condition continue , and assuming a weak ocean-atmospheric coupling holds and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 hold in the +0.8 deg range, there is good probability for slightly enhanced storm production in the South Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere Summer time months. There is slightly increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in slightly increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period. This should be significantly better than the past 2 Summer seasons.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/12) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific turning moderate east over the Central and West Pacific. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and weak easterly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (6/13) east anomalies were moderately in control of the core of the KWGA but weakening in the far West KWGA. The forecast is for east anomalies holding velocity while steadily tracking east and almost out of the KWGA on 6/18 with moderate west anomalies setting up in the west KWGA starting 6/16 and holding through the end of the model run on 6/20. There is to be steadily suppressed support for storm development for the next 5 days, and then the situation is expected to start improving.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (6/12) The Inactive MJO pattern was gone from the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates a neutral MJO Phase transitioning to an Active Phase of the MJO over the West Pacific at day 5 and making steady headway filling the KWGA at day 15. The dynamic model is more aggressive indicating the Active Phase building stronger into the West Pacific at day 10 and solidly filling the KWGA, but then mysteriously gone at day 15. The 2 models are somewhat in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/13) The statistical model depicts a very weak Active Phase of the MJO over the West Maritime Continent, and it is forecast to push east over the Maritime Continent at day 15 while remaining weak. The GEFS model suggests the same but with the Active Phase moderately stronger over the Maritime Continent at day 5, then fading and very weak at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (6/10) This model depicts a moderate and fading split/dual lobed Inactive Phase over the Central & East Pacific today and is to push east into Central America on 6/15. A weak Active MJO signal is to track over the West Pacific 6/23 pushing east while fading fast and barely limping over Central America on 7/10. Another moderate Inactive Phase is to start building over the West Pacific 7/8 moving to the Central Pacific at the end of the model run on 7/20.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/12) This model depicts the Inactive Phase of the MJO was filling the Eastern KWGA today and past it's peak with east anomalies in pockets over the East KWGA. The forecast has the inactive Phase all but gone 1 week out (6/19) with west anomalies building in the KWGA starting 6/14 reaching strong status by 6/18 through 6/27. After that west anomalies are to be weaker but holding solid through the end of the model run on 7/10 with no east anomalies to be found.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/13) This model depicts a moderate Inactive Phase of the MJO was filling the KWGA today but past it's peak with weak east anomalies in play there and forecast tracking east through and out of the KWGA on 6/20 but with west anomalies are to start building in the KWGA on 6/16 and strong 6/21-6/28. A weak Active Phase is to develop 6/24 and slowly build and holding in the KWGA through 8/8. Weak west anomalies are to be in the KWGA continuously during that timeframe. The Inactive Phase is to try and build weakly 8/12 through the end of the model run on 9/10 but with light west anomalies holding in the core of the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines is in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. The second contour line is to fade on 6/16 but the remaining single remaining contour line is to hold through the end of the model run, contrary to previous runs which suggest it fading on 7/28. But it is to retract from California moving west to 150W. Today the low pressure contour is to materialize over the Indian Ocean 8/17, though this is on and off from day to day. This model indicates that a tendency towards El Nino was previously in control during the Fall of 2018, but has been steadily fading since then and is to continue a steady decline into September, but not out. Basically we are moving from a pattern biased towards El Nino to one biased towards ENSO neutral.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/13) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs over a building area reaching east to 173W (previously 160E) while the 29 deg isotherm was steady at 156W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding some at 142W. The 24 deg isotherm previously pushed into Ecuador at 30 meters down, but is steadily getting shallower and retrograding to 103W today. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire subsurface Pacific at +1 degs from the surface to 150 meters down (deepest on the dateline). There was a building +2 deg pocket between 180-105W (Kelvin Wave #4). The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/7 indicates warm water from Kelvin Wave #3 and #4 filling the equatorial Pacific from 160E at +1 degs reaching east to 120W with a core to nearly +2 degs from 170W-125W (Kelvin Wave #4) developing from WWB #4 that occurred from 5/1-5/26. A small pocket of cool water was drawing up from depth to the surface in the east at 110W. A previous stream of warm water flowing into the far West Pacific at 140E was gone. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/7) Positive anomalies have rebuilt lightly over the equatorial Pacific at +0-5 cms between 175E to 120W (Central Pacific) attributable to a WWB #4 that occurred there 5/1-5/26 and a smaller one at 125W (Kelvin Wave #3). From this data it looks like the Kelvin Wave #3 was dissipating in the east and Kelvin Wave #4 was weakly developing under the dateline.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/10) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate warm temps were steady from 20S to 20N on the equator from Ecuador to the dateline. But cooling was developing along Peru and off the coast a good bit pushing northwest to the Galapagos. Strong warming was north of the equator from the Galapagos to 110W. There is some weak indication of a El Nino but nothing strong.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/12): Multiple pockets of solid cooling were building from Ecuador west on the equator to 120W. Otherwise weak warming was on the equator from 125W to the dateline.
Hi-res Overview: (6/4) Warmer than normal water was from Ecuador west over the Galapagos 20 degrees north and south of the equator continuing west of there to the dateline. There were now small pockets of weak cooling from the Galapagos west to 120W.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/13) Today's temps were rising at +0.330 degs, up from 2 weeks previous at -0.508 degs, and that down from a peak of +1.235 on 5/27.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/13) Today temps were steady today at +0.682 today. Temps have been steady the last week.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/13) The model indicates temps were +0.75 degs in May and were holding today. The forecast indicates temps holding steady if not rising to +0.95 in Early Oct, then steady at +0.9 into March 2020. A weak El Nino like pattern is to hold into early Fall, and now, holding through Winter of 2019/20. A multiyear warming event is in progress and looks like it might continue.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.70 degs today, and are to hold in the +0.65 range into October, then fading to +0.60 through Dec 2019. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (6/13): The daily index was positive today at +5.62, positive the last 4 days. The 30 day average was rising at -5.82 today suggesting a fading Active MJO. The 90 day average was rising at -4.70, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern biased towards El Nino (for now).
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (April) +0.34, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. It is approaching El Nino territory but still indicted mostly ENSO neutral conditions.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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