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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, June 25, 2019 4:24 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
1.5 - California & 2.2 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 6/24 thru Sun 6/30

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

New Zealand Gale Forms
Solid New Zealand Storm Forecast

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Tuesday, June 25, 2019 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/ Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 2.7 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 8.9 secs from 184 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 2.4 ft @ 8.7 secs from 37 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.1 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 13.8 secs from 162 degrees. Wind at the buoy was west-southwest at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 66.2 degs. At Harvest (Buoy 071) primary swell was 1.8 ft @ 13.4 secs from 192 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.0 ft @ 14.5 secs from 196 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.4 secs from 211 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.5 ft @ 12.9 secs from 187 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 8.5 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 7.0 ft @ 6.5 secs from 327 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was northwest at 21-29 kts. Water temp 60.3 degs (042) and 54.0 degs (013).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (6/25) in North and Central CA locally generated northwest windswell was producing waves at waist to chest high and mushed with light chop coming from the southwest. Protected breaks were waist to maybe chest high and cleaner but still heavily textured and weak and mushed. At Santa Cruz surf was flat and clean. In Southern California/Ventura windswell was producing waves at maybe thigh high on the sets and textured but not too bad. In North Orange Co new south angled South Pacific background swell was producing waves at up to head high and lined up when they came if not closed out and clean. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were shoulder to head high on the sets and and clean with just a little texture and lined up. North San Diego had surf at waist to chest high on the sets and lined up and somewhat closed out with a little texture on top. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was getting small east wrap-around windswell at thigh high or so but trashed by southeast to south winds and chopped. The East Shore was getting minimal east windswell at thigh high or so and clean from south wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (6/25) in California modest Southeast Pacific background swell was starting to show at exposed south facing breaks while the normal summertime local northwest windswell was fading at exposed northwest facing breaks. In Hawaii no swell of interest was observed. For the future a gale developed south of New Zealand Sat -Sun (6/23) with 41 ft seas aimed northeast while tracking northeast before fading Monday. Swell is radiating towards our forecast area. And perhaps a broader system is to develop south of New Zealand tracking east-northeast Fri-Mon (7/1) with up to 47 ft seas. There is some real hope.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast other than local windswell (see below).

Windswell Outlook
On Tuesday (6/25) the usual summer time pressure gradient was displaced south with 15-20 kt north winds over most of North CA south of Cape Mendocino and south to Morro Bay nearshore waters and thin in coverage and getting thinner through the day producing no meaningful local north windswell. Winds to be 10 kts or less east of Hawaii offering no windswell production. Wed (6/26) north winds are to be 10 kts most of the day offering no windswell production potential building over Pt Conception to 15 kts later. No easterly fetch of interest is forecast for Hawaii. Thursday (6/27) high pressure is to start rebuilding at 1028 mbs in the Gulf of Alaska reaching to a point off North CA with north winds 15 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay and up to 20 kts later for Pt Conception but weak at less than 10 for North CA offering no real local windswell potential. The gradient is to build east of Hawaii too producing east winds at 15 kts extending 900 nmiles east of Hawaii and over the Islands mainly starting late afternoon with windswell starting to build for exposed east facing shores of Hawaii. Friday (6/28) the gradient is to build along the North and Central CA coast with north winds 10-15 kts nearshore for North CA and 20+ kts for all of Central CA e offering some hope for small junky north windswell. And east winds to fill in at 15 kts from 1000 nmiles east of Hawaii and extending west over the Hawaiian Islands producing east windswell at exposed east facing shores there.

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday (6/25) north winds to be 15-20 kts nearshore for North CA and building to 15 kts for Central CA in the afternoon. Wed (6/26) north winds are to be 10-15 kts limited to Central CA mainly from Monterey south to Pt Conception and building to 15 kts late afternoon as weak low pressure moves onshore over Oregon. Thurs (6/27) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts early for Pt Conception and building northward at 15 kts up to Pt Reyes late afternoon. Fri (6/28) north winds to be 15-20 kts from Pt Arena southward to Pt Conception focused on the south end of that region. Sat (6/29) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts from Pt Arena to Pt Conception all day. No change on Sunday (6/30). Monday (7/1) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts over all of North and Central CA. Tuesday (7/2) much the same is forecast but with winds more towards the 20 kt range than 15 kts.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (6/25) the jetstream was split with the influential southern branch tracking east forming a weak trough southeast of New Zealand reaching north to 60S being fed by 120 kts southwest winds offering weak support for gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere there. But east of there a strong ridge was pushing hard south into mainland Antarctica from 130W and points east of there offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the trough is to progressively weaken while falling south into Wed (6/26) no longer offering support for gale development. But starting Thurs (6/27) a new trough is to start developing south of New Zealand being fed by 140 kts winds building to 150 kts later in the day lifting north to 58S offering good support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours the trough is to sweep east fast over the Central South Pacific on Fri (6/28) and starting to pinch off while still being fed by 120 kt winds offering some support for gale development. The ridge is to hold at 130W and points east of there. Another trough is to start building under New Zealand on Sat (6/29) being fed by 120 kt winds lifting north to 55S and sweeping east while building in coherence into late Sun (6/30) over the Central South Pacific with it's apex up at 50S 145W offering good support for gale development then starting to pinch off some on Mon (7/1). A ridge is to be building under New Zealand at that time and sweeping east into Monday and then overriding the trough on Tues (7/2) with no support for gale development expected anywhere in the South Pacific at that time.

Surface Analysis  
Swell from a gale that tracked east-northeast from under New Zealand is pushing towards our forecast area (see Another New Zealand Gale below). A secondary gale followed behind (see Secondary NZ Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no additional swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

Another New Zealand Gale
A broad gale developed south of South Australia pushing east to a point south of the Tasman Sea on Sat AM (6/22) producing a broad area of 45 kt west winds and seas building from 40 ft at 59.5S 150.5E aimed east. In the evening the gale tracked east with southwest winds 45-50 kts solid with seas to 42 ft at 59S 168E aimed east-northeast (213 degs SCal and shadowed by Tahiti, 211 degs NCal and not shadowed). On Sun AM (6/23) fetch was fading from 35 kts with a secondary gale forming over the same area producing southwest winds 45 kts over a decent sized area with seas from this new fetch building fast to 36-38 ft at 58.5S 179W elongated west to 167E aimed northeast (208-212 degs SCal and shadowed by Tahiti, 207-211 NCal and partially not shadowed). In the evening that fetch lifted hard northeast with southwest winds 40-45 kts and seas building to 41 ft at 55S 179.5W aimed northeast (212 degs SCal and shadowed, 210-211 degs NCal and mostly not shadowed). On Mon AM (6/24) the gale rapidly faded while lifting hard northeast with southwest winds fading from 30-35 kts and seas mostly from previous fetch fading from 36 ft at 52S 170W aimed northeast (210 degs SCal and shadowed, 209 degs NCal and shadowed). No additional fetch or seas of interest occurred after that. Swell is radiating northeast.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sat (6/29) with size building early and period 21 secs pushing 2.4 ft @ 19-20 secs later (4.5 ft with sets to 6.0 ft). Swell peaks on Sun (6/30) at 2.8 ft @ 18-19 secs (5.0 ft with sets to 6.5 ft). Swell fading some on Mon (7/1) from 2.7 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.5 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell fading on Tues (7/2) from 2.1 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft) and fading steadily through the day. Swell Direction: 195 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (7/1) building to 1.4 ft @ 20 secs late (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell peaking on Tues (7/2) at 2.0 ft @ 18-19 secs (3.5-4.0 ft with sets to 5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 210 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (7/1) building to 1.6 ft @ 20-21 secs late (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell peaking on Tues (7/2) at 2.3 ft @ 18-19 secs (4.0-4.5 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 213 degrees

 

Secondary NZ Gale
Another but smaller gale developing while tracking east south of the Tasman Sea on Mon PM (6/24) with 40 kt west winds and seas building from 32 ft over a small area aimed east at 58S 168E. Fetch pushed due east on Tues AM (6/25) at 30-35 kts with a core to 50 kts over a tiny area with 31 ft seas fading at 56.5S 179E aimed east-northeast. Fetch is to be fading out in the evening with no additional seas of interest forecast.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Mon PM (7/1) pushing to 1.3 ft @ 19 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Tues (7/2) at 2.0 ft @ 17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 191 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

Windswell Outlook
Saturday (6/29) the gradient is to be weaker in California while lifting north some with northwest winds mainly 15 kts over North and Central CA but up to 20 kts from Monterey Bay south to Pt Conception resulting in modest short period windswell. East fetch is to hold decently relative to Hawaii early at 15 kts extending 900 nmiles east of the Islands resulting in more windswell there. Sunday (6/30) more of the same is forecast with northwest winds 15-20 kts for North and Central CA offering junky short period windswell there while easterly fetch starts fading east of Hawaii covering only 800 nmiles and somewhat spotty offering diminishing support for windswell production at exposed east facing shores. Monday (7/1) the gradient is to strengthen for CA with north winds 20+ kts over all of North and Central Ca nearshore waters offering increased odds fro junky windswell production. East fetch to dissipate for Hawaii with no odds for windswell production. Tuesday (7/2) the gradient is to bloom with north winds 20-25 kts over all of North and Central CA waters producing building raw local northwest windswell. No east fetch of interest is expected relative to Hawaii resulting in no east windswell there.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a new gale is forecast building south of New Zealand on Fri AM (6/28) producing 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas building to 24 ft at roughly 60S 155E aimed at the Ross Ice Shelf. By evening a solid fetch of 50 kt west-southwest winds are to be building aimed northeast with seas building from 37 ft at 57S 168.5E. On Sat AM (6/29) a large fetch of 45-50 kt west-southwest winds is to be in-place with seas building to 44 ft at 60S 179.5E aimed east. In the evening fetch is to hold at 45 kts from the southwest with seas 49 ft at 58.5S 169.5W aimed east-northeast. On Sun AM (6/30) the gale is to be easing east and aimed much better to the north with 45kt south winds over a solid area with 43 ft seas at 59.5S 158.5W. The gale is to track east in the evening with 45 kt south-southwest winds and 41 ft seas at 59.5S 153W aimed northeast. The gale is to fade fast on Mon AM (7/1) with 30-35 kt southwest winds and seas mainly from previous fetch fading from 34 ft at 58.5S 144.5W aimed northeast. The gale is to fade from there. Something to monitor.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Active MJO Vaporized - Low Pressure Bias to Dissipate in Pacific - The Future is Uncertain

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and did not stop, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June warm water was fading and the outlook did not favor El Nino come Fall.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2019 = 5.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that weak borderline El Nino condition continue , and assuming a weak ocean-atmospheric coupling holds and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 hold in the +0.8 deg range, there is good probability for slightly enhanced storm production in the South Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere Summer time months. There is slightly increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in slightly increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period. This should be significantly better than the past 2 Summer seasons.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/24) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific holding over the Central Pacific but far weaker in the West Pacific/KWGA and with one sensor indicating wind coming from the west. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific turning modest easterly over the Central Pacific then turning light to moderate westerly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (6/25) weak west anomalies were over the core of the KWGA but with solid east anomalies encroaching from the east to 175E. The forecast is for west anomalies holding lightly over the entirety of the KWGA but with east anomalies building west to 150E (6/27-6/29) then vaporizing with light west anomalies filling the entirety of the KWGA through the end of the model run on 7/2. There is to be a gentle support for storm development through the end of the model run.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (6/24) An neutral MJO pattern was indicated over the KWGA today and very weak elsewhere. The statistic model indicates a neutral MJO pattern is to hold for the next 2 weeks. The dynamic model suggests the same pattern but with a Inactive Phase developing at day 12 in the far West Pacific. The 2 models are in sync other than at 2 weeks out.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/25) The statistical model depicts no clear MJO signal (exceedingly weak) in the West Pacific and it is forecast to remain that way for the next 2 weeks. The GEFS model suggests the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (6/25) This model depicts a modest Active Phase over the MJO over the Central Pacific today and is to push east into Central America on 7/15. A modest Inactive MJO signal is to track over the West Pacific 6/30 pushing east up to Central America on 7/30. A neutral MJO signal is to follow.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/24) This model depicts no discernible MJO signal in the KWGA today but with moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA. The MJO is to remain suppressed through the end of the model run on 7/22 but with west anomalies filling the KWGA from now till the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/25) This model depicts a weak Active Phase moving into the Western KWGA with weak west anomalies building in the KWGA. The Active Phase and modest westerly anomalies are to build east filling the KWGA from 7/1 through 7/17 with weak west anomalies in the KWGA. After that a weak Inactive phase is forecast 7/19-8/1 but with weak west anomalies holding in the KWGA. After that another weak Active Phase is forecast 8/4 holding through 9/5 with weak west anomalies holding. The Inactive Phase is to build in some after that till the end of the model run on 9/22 but with west anomalies holding. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 1 contour lines in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. The second contour line faded on 6/23. The remaining single remaining contour line is to hold till 8/23 then dissipate. A new low pressure contour is to materialize over the Indian Ocean 8/15 holding through the end of the model run. This model indicates that a weak El Nino pattern is to fade in late August and not return, moving towards the Indian Ocean. Basically we are moving from a pattern biased towards El Nino to one biased towards ENSO neutral if not La Nina.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/25) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs over a small and shrinking area centered at 175E while the 29 deg isotherm was steady at 160W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 145W. The 24 deg isotherm previously pushed into Ecuador at 30 meters down, but retrograded to 105W last week, then again pushed into Ecuador down 3 meters today. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire subsurface Pacific at +1 degs from the surface to 125 meters down (deepest on the dateline). The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/17 indicates warm water from Kelvin Wave #3 and #4 have formed a defined pocket of warm water under the equatorial Pacific from 160E to 115W at +1-2 degs above normal, and shrinking in coverage. A small pocket of cool water was drawing up from depth to the surface in the east at 105W. A previous stream of warm water flowing into the far West Pacific at 140E was gone. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/17) Positive anomalies are holding lightly over the equatorial Pacific at +0-5 cms between 170W to 110W (Central Pacific) attributable to a WWB #4 that occurred there 5/1-5/26 and a smaller one at 125W (Kelvin Wave #3). From this data it looks like the Kelvin Wave #3 was dissipating in the east and Kelvin Wave #4 was weakly developing under the dateline.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/24) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate weak warm anomalies were steady from 20S to 20N on the equator from 100W to the dateline. Cooling developed along Peru last week and is holding this week. And overall previous strong warming over the East Equatorial Pacific was fading to weak to modest strength today. There is some weak indication of a El Nino but nothing strong.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/24): A broad area of cooling has set up along Peru up to the equator and stronger west from Ecuador to 130W from there suggesting some signs of a La Nina like pattern (or at least a strong Inactive Phase of the MJO). This is a significant change from weeks previous.
Hi-res Overview: (6/24) Warmer than normal water was from Ecuador west over the Galapagos 20 degrees north and south of the equator continuing west of there to the dateline. But there is an area of developing cooling along and just off the Peruvian Coast and in pockets around the Galapagos west to 110W.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/25) Today's temps were steady and cooler than normal at -0.435 degs, about on par with the trend 2 weeks previous at -0.508 degs, and that down from a peak of +1.235 on 5/27.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(6/25) Today temps were falling, dropping from +0.655 on 6/19 to +0.305 today.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/25) The model indicates temps were +0.75 degs in early June and are falling steadily per the model. The forecast indicates temps down to +0.50 degs July 1 then fading to +0.45 in Aug 1 then slowly rising to +0.50 into October, holding at +0.50 in Dec and into March 2020. A weak El Nino like pattern is to hold into early Fall, and now, through Winter of 2019/20. A multiyear warming event is in progress and looks like it might continue.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.70 degs today, and are to hold in the +0.65 range into October, then fading slightly to +0.60 in Jan 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (6/25): The daily index was negative today at -3.87, negative the last 10 days. The 30 day average was falling at -8.51 today suggesting a building Active MJO. The 90 day average was falling some at -5.76, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern biased towards El Nino (for now).
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (April) +0.34, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. It is approaching El Nino territory but still indicted mostly ENSO neutral conditions.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

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External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (6/23):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1Ky-kjI6xQ&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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