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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, June 27, 2019 4:20 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
1.5 - California & 2.2 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 6/24 thru Sun 6/30

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

New Zealand Tracking Northeast
Decent New Zealand Storm Still Forecast

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Thursday, June 27, 2019 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/ Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 3.1 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 15.8 secs from 198 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 2.4 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 7.9 secs from 39 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.4 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 13.0 secs from 168 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southeast at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 65.7 degs. At Harvest (Buoy 071) primary swell was 5.9 ft @ 6.5 secs from 316 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.2 ft @ 13.1 secs from 189 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 1.9 ft @ 13.2 secs from 204 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.7 ft @ 13.2 secs from 190 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 3.5 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 13.2 secs from 176 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was northwest at 10-12 kts. Water temp 57.0 degs (042) and 57.2 degs (013).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (6/27) in North and Central CA locally generated northwest windswell was producing waves at knee to maybe thigh high and mushed with light chop coming from the northwest. Protected breaks were knee to thigh high and not even breaking with modest texture from the northwest. At Santa Cruz surf was up to waist high on rare sets and clean. In Southern California/Ventura surf was up to waist high on rare sets and clean, but mostly smaller. In North Orange Co southern hemi background swell was occasionally producing waves to waist high and clean and lined up with just a little north texture on top. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were shoulder high on the rare sets and and clean and lined up. North San Diego had surf at waist high on the sets and lined up and clean. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was flat and somewhat bumpy and not really rideable. The East Shore was flat and chopped from southeast wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (6/27) in California small and fading Southeast Pacific background swell was hitting exposed breaks mainly in Southern CA. In Hawaii no swell of interest was observed. For the future a gale developed south of New Zealand Sat-Sun (6/23) with 41 ft seas aimed northeast while tracking northeast before fading Monday. Swell is radiating towards our forecast area. And perhaps a broader system is to develop south of New Zealand tracking east-northeast Fri-Mon (7/1) with up to 43 ft seas. So there's some hope.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast other than local windswell (see below).

Windswell Outlook
On Thursday (6/27) high pressure was rebuilding at 1028 mbs in the Gulf of Alaska reaching to a point off North CA with north winds 15 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay and up to 20 kts later for Pt Conception but weak at less than 10 for North CA offering no local windswell potential. The gradient is to build east of Hawaii too producing east winds at 15 kts extending 900 nmiles east of Hawaii in pockets and over the Islands mainly starting late afternoon with windswell starting to build for exposed east facing shores of Hawaii. Friday (6/28) the gradient is to build along the North and Central CA coast with north winds 15 kts nearshore for North CA and 20+ kts for the southern half of Central CA offering some hope for small junky north windswell. And east winds to continue at 15 kts in patches from 450 nmiles east of Hawaii and extending west over the Hawaiian Islands producing low odds of limited east windswell at exposed east facing shores there. Saturday (6/29) the gradient is to be weaker in California while lifting north some with northwest winds mainly 15 kts over North and Central CA but up to 20 kts in pockets from Monterey Bay south to Pt Conception resulting in small short period windswell. East fetch is to hold decently relative to Hawaii early at 15 kts extending 900 nmiles east of the Islands resulting in more windswell there. Sunday (6/30) more of the same is forecast with northwest winds 15-20 kts for North and Central CA offering junky short period windswell there while easterly fetch starts fading up to 800 nmiles east of Hawaii occurring only in distant patches offering diminishing support for windswell production at exposed east facing shores.

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday (6/27) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts early for Pt Conception and 10 kts or less north of there but building northward at 15 kts up to Pt Reyes late afternoon. Fri (6/28) north winds to be 15-20 kts from Pt Arena southward to Pt Conception focused on the south end of that region. Sat (6/29) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts from Pt Arena to Pt Conception all day. No change on Sunday (6/30). Monday (7/1) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts over all of North and Central CA. Tuesday (7/2) much the same is forecast but with winds 20 kts and up to 25 kts in pockets over North CA. No change on Wednesday (7/3). On Thurs (7/4) north winds to be 15-20 kts over all of North and Central CA.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (6/27) a new trough was starting to weakly develop south of New Zealand being fed building 150 kt winds later in the day lifting north to 58S offering good support for gale development. Over the Southeast Pacific a big ridge continued pushing into Antarctica from 145W and points east of there offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the trough under New Zealand is to sweep east fast over the Central South Pacific on Fri (6/28) and starting to pinch off while still being fed by 120-130 kt winds offering some support for gale development. The ridge is to hold at 135W and points east of there. Another trough is to start building under New Zealand on Sat (6/29) being fed by 120-130 kt winds lifting north to 52S and sweeping east while building in coherence into late Sun (6/30) over the Central South Pacific with it's apex up at 48S 145W offering good support for gale development then starting to pinch off some on Mon (7/1) and being undercut. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (7/1) a ridge is to be building under New Zealand and sweeping east and then overriding the trough on Tues (7/2) with no support for gale development expected anywhere in the South Pacific at that time.
But on Wed-Thurs (7/4) there's indications of a new trough starting to build under New Zealand pushing east and moving over the Central South Pacific being fed by 130-140 kt southwest winds lifting north to 50S at 145W offering improving support for gale development. Something to possibly look forward to.

Surface Analysis  
Swell from a gale that tracked east-northeast from under New Zealand is pushing towards our forecast area (see Another New Zealand Gale below). A secondary gale followed behind (see Secondary NZ Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a new gale is forecast building south of New Zealand on Fri AM (6/28) producing 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas building to 25 ft at roughly 54S 155E aimed at the Ross Ice Shelf. By evening a solid fetch of 45-50 kt west-southwest winds are to be building aimed northeast with seas building from 37 ft at 56S 159E. On Sat AM (6/29) a broad fetch of 45-50 kt west-southwest winds are to be in-place pushing east with seas building to 44 ft at 55S 178.5E aimed east. In the evening fetch is to hold at 45 kts from the southwest over a broad area with seas 43 ft at 58S 165.5W aimed east-northeast. On Sun AM (6/30) the gale is to be easing east and aimed much better to the north with 40 kt south winds over a solid area and seas 42 ft at 54.5S 161W. The gale is to track east in the evening with 30-35 kt south-southwest winds over a large area and 38 ft seas at 51S 151W aimed northeast. The gale is to fade fast on Mon AM (7/1) with 35-40 kt southwest winds over a tiny core and seas mainly from previous fetch fading from 33 ft at 49S 143.5W aimed northeast. in the evening the gale is to fade out with seas fading from 30 ft at 51S 133W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

 

Another New Zealand Gale
A broad gale developed south of South Australia pushing east to a point south of the Tasman Sea on Sat AM (6/22) producing a broad area of 45 kt west winds and seas building from 40 ft at 59.5S 150.5E aimed east. In the evening the gale tracked east with southwest winds 45-50 kts solid with seas to 42 ft at 59S 168E aimed east-northeast (213 degs SCal and shadowed by Tahiti, 211 degs NCal and not shadowed). On Sun AM (6/23) fetch was fading from 35 kts with a secondary gale forming over the same area producing southwest winds 45 kts over a decent sized area with seas from this new fetch building fast to 36-38 ft at 58.5S 179W elongated west to 167E aimed northeast (208-212 degs SCal and shadowed by Tahiti, 207-211 NCal and partially not shadowed). In the evening that fetch lifted hard northeast with southwest winds 40-45 kts and seas building to 41 ft at 55S 179.5W aimed northeast (212 degs SCal and shadowed, 210-211 degs NCal and mostly not shadowed). On Mon AM (6/24) the gale rapidly faded while lifting hard northeast with southwest winds fading from 30-35 kts and seas mostly from previous fetch fading from 36 ft at 52S 170W aimed northeast (210 degs SCal and shadowed, 209 degs NCal and shadowed). No additional fetch or seas of interest occurred after that. Swell is radiating northeast.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sat (6/29) with size building early and period 21 secs pushing 2.4 ft @ 19-20 secs later (4.5 ft with sets to 6.0 ft). Swell peaks on Sun (6/30) at 3.0 ft @ 18 secs later (5.0 ft with sets to 6.5 ft). Swell fading some on Mon (7/1) from 2.8 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.5 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell fading on Tues (7/2) from 2.1 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft) and fading steadily through the day. Swell Direction: 195 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (7/1) building to 1.4 ft @ 20 secs late (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell peaking on Tues (7/2) at 2.0 ft @ 18-19 secs (3.5-4.0 ft with sets to 5.0 ft). Swell to hold on Wed (7/3) at 2.2 ft @ 17 secs (3.5 ft with sets to 4.5 ft). Swell fading slowly on Thurs (7/4) from 2.1 ft @ 16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 210 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (7/1) building to 1.6 ft @ 20-21 secs late (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell peaking on Tues (7/2) at 2.3 ft @ 18-19 secs (4.0-4.5 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell to hold on Wed (7/3) at 2.5 ft @ 17-18 secs early (4.0-4.5 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell fading slowly on Thurs (7/4) from 2.3 ft @ 16 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 213 degrees

 

Secondary NZ Gale
Another but smaller gale developing while tracking east south of the Tasman Sea on Mon PM (6/24) with 40 kt west winds and seas building from 32 ft over a small area aimed east at 58S 168E. Fetch pushed due east on Tues AM (6/25) at 30-35 kts with a core to 50 kts over a tiny area with 31 ft seas fading at 56.5S 179E aimed east-northeast. Fetch faded out in the evening with no additional seas of interest forecast.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Mon PM (7/1) pushing to 1.3 ft @ 19 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Tues (7/2) at 2.0 ft @ 17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading some on Wed (7/3) from 2.1 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Another pulse to arrive on Thurs AM (7/4) at 2.3 ft @ 15 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 191-192 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

Windswell Outlook
Monday (7/1) the gradient is to strengthen some for California with north winds 20+ kts over all of North and Central Ca nearshore waters offering increased odds fro junky windswell production. East fetch to dissipate for Hawaii with no odds for windswell production. Tuesday (7/2) the gradient is to build more with north winds 20 kts over all of North and Central CA waters and up to 25 kts for NCal producing building raw local northwest windswell. No east fetch of interest is expected relative to Hawaii resulting in no east windswell there. More of the same is forecast on Wed (7/3). Thursday (7/4) the gradient is to be fading with north winds 15-20 kts over all of North and Central CA producing junky local northwest windswell at exposed breaks. No easterly fetch is forecast east of Hawaii.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast. But the models are suggesting a developing gale pattern setting up in the Central South Pacific.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Neutral MJO In Control - Nino 3.4 Temps Crashing - Low Pressure Bias to Dissipate

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and did not stop, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June warm water was fading and the outlook did not favor El Nino come Fall.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2019 = 5.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that weak borderline El Nino condition continue , and assuming a weak ocean-atmospheric coupling holds and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 hold in the +0.8 deg range, there is good probability for slightly enhanced storm production in the South Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere Summer time months. There is slightly increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in slightly increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period. This should be significantly better than the past 2 Summer seasons.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/26) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific holding over the Central Pacific but far weaker in the West Pacific/KWGA and with one sensor indicating wind coming from the west. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific turning light easterly over the Central Pacific then turning light westerly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (6/27) a mixture of weak west and east anomalies were in pockets over the KWGA. The forecast is for this mixed pattern to continue with west anomalies consolidating on the dateline and light east anomalies in the core of the KWGA near 150E holding through the end of the model run on 7/4. There is to be no clearly defined enhanced support for storm development through the next 7 days.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (6/26) An neutral MJO pattern with weak tendencies towards an Active patter was indicated over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates a neutral MJO pattern is to hold 5 days out and then holding for the next 2 weeks. The dynamic model suggests the same pattern but with a Inactive Phase developing at day 15 in the far West Pacific. The 2 models are in sync other than at the 2 week point.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/27) The statistical model depicts no clear MJO signal (exceedingly weak) in the West Pacific and it is forecast to remain that way for the next 2 weeks while tracking east to the the Atlantic. The GEFS model suggests the same thing but with the Active phase moving quicker to the east and building modestly in the Indian Ocean 2 weeks out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (6/27) This model depicts a very weak Active Phase over the MJO over the Central Pacific today and is to push east into Central America on 7/20. A modest Inactive MJO signal is to track over the West Pacific 7/2 pushing east up to Central America at the end of the model run 8/6. A weak Active Phase is to follow in the far West Pacific at that time.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/26) This model depicts no discernible MJO signal in the KWGA today with a finger of weak east anomalies in the KWGA but with moderate west anomalies surrounding it in the KWGA. The MJO is to remain suppressed through the end of the model run on 7/22 but with west anomalies filling the KWGA from now till the end of the model run focused on the dateline.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/27) This model depicts a weak Active Phase moving into the Western KWGA with weak west anomalies building in the KWGA. The Active Phase and modest westerly anomalies are to build east filling the KWGA from 7/1 through 7/23. After that a neutral pattern is to set up 7/24-8/15 but with weak west anomalies holding in the KWGA. After that another weak Active Phase is forecast 8/16 holding through the end of the model run on 9/24 but with west anomalies holding. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 1 contour lines in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. The second contour line faded on 6/23. The remaining single remaining contour line is to hold till 8/12 then dissipate. A new low pressure contour is to materialize over the Indian Ocean 8/14 holding through the end of the model run. This model indicates that a weak El Nino pattern is to fade in late August and not return, moving towards the Indian Ocean. Basically we are moving from a pattern biased towards El Nino to one biased towards ENSO neutral if not La Nina.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/27) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs over a small and shrinking area centered at 172E while the 29 deg isotherm was retrograding at 162W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding at 147W. The 24 deg isotherm previously pushed into Ecuador at 30 meters down, but retrograded to 105W last week, then again pushed into Ecuador down 3 meters on 6/25 and was holding today. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire subsurface Pacific at +1 degs from the surface to 125 meters down (deepest on the dateline). The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/22 indicates warm water from Kelvin Wave #3 and #4 have formed a defined pocket of warm water under the equatorial Pacific from 160E to 115W at +1.5 degs above normal, and shrinking in coverage. A small pocket of cool water was drawing up from depth to the surface in the east at 100W. A previous stream of warm water flowing into the far West Pacific at 140E was gone. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/22) One last pocket of positive anomalies are holding over the equatorial Pacific at +0-5 cms near 150W attributable to a WWB #4 that occurred there 5/1-5/26 and a smaller one at 125W (Kelvin Wave #3). From this data it looks like the Kelvin Wave #3 was dissipating in the east and Kelvin Wave #4 was also dissipating.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/26) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate very weak warm anomalies were steady from 20S to 20N on the equator from Peru and Central America the dateline. Cooling developed along Peru last week but was fading fast this week. And overall previous strong warming over the East Equatorial Pacific was fading to weak to modest strength today. There is some weak indication of a El Nino but nothing strong.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/26): A broad area of very weak cooling was along Peru up to the equator and with weak pockets of from Ecuador to 130W from there suggesting some signs of a La Nina like pattern (or at least a strong Inactive Phase of the MJO). This is a significant change from weeks previous.
Hi-res Overview: (6/26) Warmer than normal water was from Ecuador west over the Galapagos 20 degrees north of the equator and 10 degrees south of it continuing west of there to the dateline. But there is an area of developing cooling along and just off the Peruvian Coast and in pockets around the Galapagos west to 110W.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/27) Today's temps were steady and cooler than normal at -0.256 degs, about on par with the trend 2 weeks previous at -0.508 degs, and that down from a peak of +1.235 on 5/27.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(6/27) Today temps were falling steadily, dropping from +0.655 on 6/19 to +0.056 today and effectively neutral.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/25) The model indicates temps were +0.75 degs in early June and are falling steadily per the model. The forecast indicates temps down to +0.50 degs July 1 then fading to +0.45 in Aug 1 then slowly rising to +0.50 into October, holding at +0.50 in Dec and into March 2020. A weak El Nino like pattern is to hold into early Fall, and now, through Winter of 2019/20. A multiyear warming event is in progress and looks like it might continue.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.70 degs today, and are to hold in the +0.65 range into October, then fading slightly to +0.60 in Jan 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (6/25): The daily index was negative today at -3.87, negative the last 10 days. The 30 day average was falling at -8.51 today suggesting a building Active MJO. The 90 day average was falling some at -5.76, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern biased towards El Nino (for now).
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (April) +0.34, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. It is approaching El Nino territory but still indicted mostly ENSO neutral conditions.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (6/23):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1Ky-kjI6xQ&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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