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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, July 2, 2019 4:55 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.7 - California & 3.6 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 7/1 thru Sun 7/7

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

New Zealand Swell Hitting CA
Another New Zealand Swell & 2 More Gales Behind

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Tuesday, July 2, 2019 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/ Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 4.3 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 3.1 ft @ 15.7 secs from 200 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 2.3 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 0.6 ft @ 15.7 secs from 248 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.5 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 18.7 secs from 218 degrees. Wind at the buoy was east at 8-12 kts. Water temperature 66.9 degs. At Harvest (Buoy 071) primary swell was 2.3 ft @ 19.3 secs from 215 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.8 ft @ 19.9 secs from 217 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 2.2 ft @ 20.0 secs from 213 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.6 ft @ 19.9 secs from 210 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 8.1 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 7.0 ft @ 6.5 secs from 331 degrees with southern hemi swell 2.5 ft @ 19.6 secs from 210 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was northwest at 23-31 kts. Water temp 50.5 degs (013) and 56.5 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (7/2) in North and Central CA locally generated northwest windswell was producing waves at head high on the sets and mushed and fully whitecapped and not really rideable. Protected breaks were waist to maybe chest high and soft and warbled but clean enough if you really needed to go out. At Santa Cruz surf was head high to 1 ft overhead and clean and lined up and thick but inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura windswell was waist high on the sets and lined up but pretty warbled and soft. In North Orange Co southern hemi/New Zealand swell was occasionally producing waves to shoulder high but pretty heavily textured by south wind. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were shoulder high or so on the sets and moderately textured early and soft. North San Diego had surf at shoulder to maybe head high and fairly clean and lined up. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was continuing to get New Zealand swell with set waves head high to 2 ft overhead and super clean and lined up. The East Shore was knee high and textured from modest southeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (7/2) in California New Zealand swell was starting to fill in and making for occasional decent surf at select breaks. In Hawaii the same swell was fading but still solid while secondary energy was moving in behind it. In both cases the swell originated from a gale that developed south of New Zealand Sat-Sun (6/23) with 41 ft seas aimed northeast while tracking northeast before fading Monday (6/24). And a broader system developed south of New Zealand while tracking east-northeast Fri-Mon (7/1) with up to 42 ft seas. And possibly another to form southeast of New Zealand Thurs-Fri (7/5) with up to 38 ft seas aimed northeast and yet another on Sun-Mon (7/8) with 39 ft seas aimed northeast. Quite a nice little pattern is setting up.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast other than local windswell (see below).

Windswell Outlook
On Tuesday (7/2) the usual summertime pressure gradient was in place over California producing north winds at 20+ kts over all of North and Central CA waters early producing building raw local northwest windswell and expected to build to near 25 kts in the later afternoon. No east fetch of interest is expected relative to Hawaii resulting in no east windswell there. On Wednesday (7/3) in California the gradient is to hold with north winds 20-25 kts over all of North and Central CA waters early and then getting shallower in the afternoon but still producing raw local northwest windswell. No east fetch of interest is expected relative to Hawaii resulting in no east windswell there. But Hurricane Barbara swell is to be radiating west towards Hawaii (see Tropical Update above). Thursday (7/4) the gradient in CA is to be fading with north winds 15-20 kts over all of North and Central CA producing smaller junky local northwest windswell at exposed breaks. No easterly fetch is forecast east of Hawaii. Fri (7/5) the gradient is to hold mainly over North CA producing north winds at 20+ kts and some windswell radiating south with north winds 15 kts over Central CA just making junky conditions there. No east fetch is expected relative to Hawaii.

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
Hurricane Barbara on Tues AM (7/2) was positioned 1500 nmiles south of Pt Conception tracking west-northwest with winds 115 kts with seas estimated at 42 ft and expected to peak in the evening with winds 130 kts (150 mph). Wed (7/3) Barbara is to continue on a west-northwest track with winds 125 kts early fading to 115 kt (132 mph) in the late afternoon. The track is to hold Thurs AM (7/4) with winds fading from 100 kts (115 mph) moving to within 1500 nmiles of the Big Island of Hawaii with swell radiating west. On Fri (7/5) this system is to be fading with winds dropping from 75 kts and below hurricane force by late afternoon and swell generation potential fading. On Sat (7/6) Barbara is to be 1100 nmiles east of the Big Island and turning to a fully westerly course with winds at tropical storm status at 50 kts and fading from there. Barbara is to be nearly gone by Tues (7/9) with 20 kt winds from it's remnants pushing over the Big Island and of no particular interest.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday (7/2) northwest winds were 20+ kts over all of North and Central CA with pockets to 25 kts forecast in the afternoon. Fetch is to be fading some on Wednesday (7/3) but still 20+ kts for all of North and Central CA all day. On Thurs (7/4) north winds to be 15-20 kts over all of North and Central CA turning more to 15 kts in the afternoon. Fri (7/5) north winds to be 20 kts for all of North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. Sat (7/6) north winds to continue at mostly 20-25 kts for all of North CA and 15 kts for Central CA.Sun (7/7) north winds to remain at 20-25 kts for North CA but 10-15 kts for Central CA. Mon (7/8) north winds to be fading at 20 kts and 10 kts or less for Central CA. More of the same is forecast on Tues (7/9).

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (7/2) a ridge was building under New Zealand in the influential southern branch of the jetstream sweeping east fast and overriding the remnants of a previous trough in the Central South Pacific eliminating any support for gale development anywhere in the South Pacific. Over the next 72 hours t
hat pattern is to moderate some on Wed (7/3) and by Thurs (7/4) there's indications of a new trough starting to build under New Zealand being fed by 160 kt winds and offering improved support for gale development and pushing east over the Central South Pacific on Fri (7/5) continuing to provide a favorable environment for gale development with the troughs apex up at 55S 150W. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (7/6) that pre-existing trough is to become reinforced by a broad area of 130 kt southwest winds pushing hard northeast under and east of New Zealand offering great support for gale development into Mon (7/6) southeast of New Zealand. The trough is to weaken quickly into Tues (7/9) no longer offering support for gale formation. This pattern is looking promising.

Surface Analysis  
Swell from a gale that tracked east-northeast from under New Zealand is hitting California and fading out in Hawaii (see Another New Zealand Gale below). A secondary gale followed behind (see Secondary NZ Gale below). And yet another solid gale traversed the Southwest and Central Pacific (see New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours yet another gale is to build south of New Zealand on Thurs AM (7/4) producing 45-50 kt southwest winds and seas building from 30 ft just off the northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf at 60.5S 173E. In the evening the gale is to be lifting northeast with 45 kt southwest winds and seas building to 37 ft at 58S 175.5W (207 degs Scal and not shadowed, 206 degs NCal and shadowed by Tahiti). The gale is to race east on Fri AM (7/5) with 40-45 kts west winds producing 37 ft seas at 56.5S 161.5W aimed east-northeast (203 degs SCal and not shadowed, 202 degs NCal and shadowed). The gale is to fade in the evening with 40 kt west winds aimed east and seas fading from 33 ft at 53S 145W aimed east-northeast (194 degs NCal and not shadowed). This gale to fade from there.

 

Another New Zealand Gale
A broad gale developed south of South Australia pushing east to a point south of the Tasman Sea on Sat AM (6/22) producing a broad area of 45 kt west winds and seas building from 40 ft at 59.5S 150.5E aimed east. In the evening the gale tracked east with southwest winds 45-50 kts solid with seas to 42 ft at 59S 168E aimed east-northeast (213 degs SCal and shadowed by Tahiti, 211 degs NCal and not shadowed). On Sun AM (6/23) fetch was fading from 35 kts with a secondary gale forming over the same area producing southwest winds 45 kts over a decent sized area with seas from this new fetch building fast to 36-38 ft at 58.5S 179W elongated west to 167E aimed northeast (208-212 degs SCal and shadowed by Tahiti, 207-211 NCal and partially not shadowed). In the evening that fetch lifted hard northeast with southwest winds 40-45 kts and seas building to 41 ft at 55S 179.5W aimed northeast (212 degs SCal and shadowed, 210-211 degs NCal and mostly not shadowed). On Mon AM (6/24) the gale rapidly faded while lifting hard northeast with southwest winds fading from 30-35 kts and seas mostly from previous fetch fading from 36 ft at 52S 170W aimed northeast (210 degs SCal and shadowed, 209 degs NCal and shadowed). No additional fetch or seas of interest occurred after that. Swell is radiating northeast.

Hawaii: Swell fading on Tues (7/2) from 2.1 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft) and fading steadily through the day. Swell Direction: 195 degrees

Southern CA: Swell peaking on Tues (7/2) at 2.0 ft @ 18-19 secs (3.5-4.0 ft with sets to 5.0 ft). Swell to hold on Wed (7/3) at 2.2 ft @ 17 secs (3.5 ft with sets to 4.5 ft). Swell fading slowly on Thurs (7/4) from 2.1 ft @ 16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). See Secondary NZ Gale below for more swell. Swell Direction: 210 degrees

North CA: Swell peaking on Tues (7/2) at 2.3 ft @ 18-19 secs (4.0-4.5 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell to hold on Wed (7/3) at 2.5 ft @ 17-18 secs early (4.0-4.5 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell fading slowly on Thurs (7/4) from 2.3 ft @ 16 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 213 degrees

 

Secondary NZ Gale
Another but smaller gale developing while tracking east south of the Tasman Sea on Mon PM (6/24) with 40 kt west winds and seas building from 32 ft over a small area aimed east at 58S 168E. Fetch pushed due east on Tues AM (6/25) at 30-35 kts with a core to 50 kts over a tiny area with 31 ft seas fading at 56.5S 179E aimed east-northeast. Fetch faded out in the evening with no additional seas of interest forecast.

Hawaii: Swell peaking on Tues (7/2) at 2.0 ft @ 17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading some on Wed (7/3) from 2.1 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Another pulse to arrive on Thurs AM (7/4) at 2.3 ft @ 15 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell fading some on Fri AM (7/5) from 2.1 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading out overnight. Swell Direction: 191-192 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (7/5) building to 2.2 ft @ 16 secs (3.5 ft) holding all day. Swell building on Sat (7/6) to 3.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.5-5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 211 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (7/5) building to 2.3 ft @ 16 secs (3.5-4.0 ft) holding all day. Swell fading on Sat (7/6) from 2.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 214 degrees

 

New Zealand Gale
A new gale started building south of New Zealand on Fri AM (6/28) producing 35-40 kt northwest winds over a large area and seas building to 25 ft at roughly 54S 155E aimed at the Ross Ice Shelf. By evening a solid fetch of 45-50 kt west-southwest winds were building aimed northeast with seas building from 37 ft at 55.5S 161E (SCal 218 degs and just barely shadowed by Tahiti, NCal 216 degs and unshadowed by Tahiti). On Sat AM (6/29) a broad fetch of 45-50 kt southwest winds were in-place pushing east with seas building to 41 ft at 56S 178.5E aimed east (SCal 212 degs and shadowed, 210 degs NCal and just barely shadowed). In the evening fetch held at 45 kts from the southwest over a broad area with seas 42 ft at 57S 170W aimed east-northeast (SCal 206 degrees and unshadowed, NCal 205 degs and shadowed). On Sun AM (6/30) the gale was easing east and aimed much better to the north with 35-40 kt south-southwest winds over a solid area and seas 38 ft at 55S 160W (SCal 203 degs and unshadowed, NCal 202 degs and shadowed). The gale tracked northeast in the evening with 30-35 kt south-southwest winds over a large area and 34 ft seas at 50.5S 151W aimed northeast (SCal 201 degs and unshadowed, NCal 197 degs and unshadowed). The gale faded fast on Mon AM (7/1) with 30-35 kt south winds over a tiny core and seas mainly from previous fetch fading from 30 ft at 48S 144W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale faded out with seas fading from 26 ft at 50S 133W aimed northeast. Swell is in the water tracking northeast.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Fri (7/5) building to 2.1 ft @ 20 secs late (4.0 ft). Swell holding on Sat (7/6) at 2.1 ft @ 18 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft with sets to 4.5 ft). Swell fading some on Sun (7/7) fading from 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Dribbles on Mon (7/8) fading from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). A secondary pulse is possible on Tues (7/9) building to 2.2 ft @ 13 secs (3.0 ft) early. Swell Direction: 190 degrees moving to 175 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (7/6) building to 1.0 ft @ 23-24 secs late (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building on Sun (7/7) pushing 2.3 ft @ 20 secs later (4.5 ft). Swell solid on Mon (7/8) at 2.7 ft @ 18-19 secs (5.0 ft with set to 6.5 ft). Swell holding early Tues (7/9) at 3.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.5 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 202 degrees

North CA: Expect the first signs of this swell hitting buoys late Sat (7/6) with period 24 secs. Swell building on Sun (7/7) at 2.1 ft @ 20-21 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell solid on Mon (7/8) at 2.5 ft @ 18-19 secs (4.5 ft with sets to 6.0 ft). Swell holding early Tues (7/9) at 2.8 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.5 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

Windswell Outlook
On Saturday (7/6) the gradient is to hold mainly over North CA with north winds 20-25 kts producing windswell radiating south with pockets of north winds over Central CA nearshore waters at 15 kts. No easterly fetch is forecast for Hawaii with no windswell expected. Sunday (7/7) no real change is forecast with north winds 20-25 kts over North Ca producing windswell radiating south with 15 kt north winds mainly off the coast of Central CA not offering much. The remnants of Barbara are to be approaching the Hawaiian Islands from the east. Mon (7/8) the gradient is to be fading over North CA as low pressure approaches from the Gulf of Alaska producing only a shallow area of north winds at 20+ kts limited to North CA nearshore waters and getting smaller through the day offering only minimal support for windswell development mainly for North CA. The remnants of Barbara is to be moving into the Big Island of Hawaii producing northeast winds at 15 kts later producing limited local windswell mixing with preexisting groundswell. No change for NCal and Hawaii on Tues (7/9).

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours yet another solid gale is to develop south of New Zealand on Sat PM (7/6) with 40-45 kt south-southwest winds and seas building quickly from 32 ft at 56.5S 168E aimed northeast. The gale is to track northeast on Sun AM (7/7) with 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas 39 ft at 52S 176E aimed northeast. The gale to continue lifting northeast in the evening with 40-45 kts southwest winds and seas 40 ft at 50S 177W aimed northeast. The gale is to start pushing east and falling southeast on Mon AM (7/8) with 40 kt west winds and seas 34 ft at 48S 162W aimed east-northeast. The gale is to fade from there. Something to monitor.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Nino 3.4 Daily Temps Neutral - SubSurface Temps Cooling - El Nino Failing

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and did not stop, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June warm water was fading and the outlook did not favor El Nino come Fall.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2019 = 5.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that weak borderline El Nino condition continue , and assuming a weak ocean-atmospheric coupling holds and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 hold in the +0.8 deg range, there is good probability for slightly enhanced storm production in the South Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere Summer time months. There is slightly increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in slightly increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period. This should be significantly better than the past 2 Summer seasons.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/1) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific holding over the Central Pacific but weak over the West Pacific/KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific turning light westerly over the Central Pacific and holding over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (7/1) a mixture of weak west and east anomalies were in pockets over the KWGA. The forecast is for light east anomalies to slowly build over the Western KWGA east to 170E with weak west anomalies holding over the dateline and filling the entire East Pacific through the end of the model run on 7/8. There is to be no clearly defined enhanced support for storm development for the next 7 days.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (7/1) A neutral to weak Active MJO pattern was indicated over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates a neutral MJO pattern is to take hold 5 days out and continue for the next 2 weeks but with a weak Inactive MJO pattern setting up in the extreme West Pacific with it's core over the Maritime Continent days 10-15. The dynamic model suggests the same pattern initially but with a Inactive Phase fully moving into the KWGA at day 10 and holding into day 15. The 2 models are in sync other than at the 2 week point.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (7/2) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase exceedingly weak in the West Pacific and it is forecast to remain there and weaken to no perceptible status over the next 15 days. The GEFS model suggests the same thing but with the Active phase moving quickly to the east while crashing and rebuilding moderately over East Africa at day 7 then moving into the Indian Ocean and weakening significantly at day 10 through day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (6/30) This model depicts a very weak Active Phase over the East Pacific today and is to push east into Central America on 7/12. A modest Inactive MJO signal is over the far West Pacific today pushing east slowly and stalled in the Central Pacific at the end of the model run 8/9. No clearly defined MJO pattern is to follow with a weak Active Phase is to set up in the Indian Ocean at the end of the model run.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/1) This model depicts a weak Active MJO signal over the KWGA today with a finger of weak east anomalies in the Western KWGA but with moderate west anomalies surrounding it in the Eastern KWGA. The MJO is to remain suppressed through the end of the model run on 7/29 but with west anomalies fully filling the KWGA from 7/7 till the end of the model run focused on the dateline.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/2) This model depicts a weak Active Phase just past it's prime over the KWGA with weak west anomalies mainly over the dateline and points east of there. The Active Phase and modest westerly anomalies are to hold over the dateline and east of there through 7/20 with east anomalies in the far west KWGA. After that a weak Inactive pattern is to set up 7/18-8/3 but with weak west anomalies holding near the dateline and east anomalies in the far West KWGA. After that another weak Active Phase is forecast moving over the KWGA on 8/4 holding through 9/20 with modest west anomalies filling the entirety of the KWGA. An Inactive MJO is to be moving into the KWGA at the end of the model run on 9/29 but with west anomalies holding in the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 1 contour lines in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. This single remaining contour line is to hold till 8/25 then dissipating and migrate west to the Indian Ocean at the same time and holding through the end of the model run. This model indicates that a weak El Nino pattern is to fade in late August and not return, moving towards the Indian Ocean, symptomatic of La Nina. Basically we are moving from a pattern biased towards El Nino to one biased towards ENSO neutral if not weakly La Nina.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/2) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs over a small and shrinking area centered at 172E while the 29 deg isotherm was retrograding at 164W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding at 149W. The 24 deg isotherm previously pushed into Ecuador at 30 meters down, but retrograded to 105W last week, then again pushed into Ecuador down 3 meters on 6/25 and was holding today. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire subsurface Pacific at +1 degs from the surface to 125 meters down (deepest on the dateline). But there is a clear sense that warm subsurface water is retreating from the South American Coast. And a pocket of -3 deg anomalies is moving east fast down at 115 meters at 130W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/27 indicates warm water from Kelvin Waves #3 and #4 have formed a shrinking pocket of warm water under the Central equatorial Pacific from 160E to 115W at +1.5 degs above normal, and shrinking in coverage. A small pocket of cool water was drawing up from depth to the surface in the east at 100W. A previous stream of warm water flowing into the far West Pacific from the Maritime Continent was gone. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/27) No positive anomalies are indicated over the equatorial Pacific with negative anomalies at -5 to -10 cms depicted over the Galapagos pushing west on the equator. From this data it looks like the remnants of Kelvin Wave #3/#4 were dissipating in the west and a cooler regime was starting to develop in the far east.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/30) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate very weak warm anomalies were steady from 10S to 20N on the equator in the east from Peru and Central America dropping to 20S in the west on the dateline. Cooling is holding along Peru and Chile and has been present for the past 2 weeks. Warming south of the equator in the Central Pacific was fading through holding north of the equator. There is some weak indication of a El Nino but nothing solid.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/1): A broad area of very weak cooling was along Peru up to the equator and with weak pockets from Ecuador west to 140W interspersed with warming pockets over the same area. This is a significant change from weeks previous suggesting a developing cooling trend.
Hi-res Overview: (7/1) Warmer than normal water was from Ecuador west over the Galapagos 20 degrees north of the equator and 10 degrees south of it continuing west of there to the dateline. But there is an area of developing cooling along and just off the Peruvian Coast and in pockets around the Galapagos west to 120W. And warm temps south of the equator from Peru west to 140W were quickly fading. El Nino appears to be in retreat.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/2) Today's temps were steady and cooler than normal at -0.034 degs, about on par with the trend 2 weeks previous at -0.508 degs, and that down from a peak of +1.235 on 5/27.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(7/2) Today temps were rebounding slightly after crashing, dropping from +0.655 on 6/19 to -0.057 on 6/27 rebuilding to +0.086 today.

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CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (7/2) The model indicates a cooling trend setting up temps +0.65 degs in early June falling steadily to 0.0 degs Aug 1 rebuilding slightly to +0.20 in early November then slowly fading to -0.15 Jan 1 2020, rising to +0.15 degs in late March. Basically a neutral pattern taking shape. We suspect even this is an optimistic forecast with a neutral if not weak La Nina pattern setting up by late Fall.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.60 degs in June, and are to hold in the +0.70 range into November, then fading slightly to +0.65 in February 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (6/29): The daily index was negative today at -25.87, negative the last 14 days. The 30 day average was falling at -10.29 today suggesting a building Active MJO. The 90 day average was falling some at -6.59, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern biased towards El Nino (for now).
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (April) +0.34, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. It is approaching El Nino territory but still indicted mostly ENSO neutral conditions.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

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External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


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Local Interest

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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