BUOY ROUNDUP
Sunday, July 12, 2026 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (7/12) in North and Central CA surf was waist to maybe chest high on the peaks and weakly lined up coming from the northwest and mushed and slightly warbled. Protected breaks were up to waist high and weakly lined up and mushed and a little bit warbled but not completely flat early. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to sometimes barely chest high on the rare sets and weakly lined up with good form but short and very clean early. In Ventura County the surf was rarely thigh high on the sets and weakly lined up and mushed but clean early. Central Orange County had sets at waist to chest high and lined up with decent sections and heavily textured early from modest south wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at chest to shoulder high on the peak and lined up with good form and clean early but with just a little crumble. North San Diego had sets at waist to chest high with decent form though soft and clean early. Oahu's North Shore was mostly flat with some waist high sets wrapping in from the northeast at select spots and mushed with some morning warble on top. The South Shore had sets at waist high or so and soft and weakly lined up with good form and clean early. The East Shore was getting easterly tradewind generated windswell with waves waist to chest high and chopped from moderate northeast trades early.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (7/12) California was getting fading swell from a final gale that developed Sat-Sun (6/28) south of New Zealand with seas to 37 ft with secondary energy tracking the rest of the way across the South Pacific into Wed (7/1) with seas rebuilding to 31 ft aimed east-northeast. Hawaii was getting some background energy from a gale that previously pushed up through the tasman Sea. Looking forward starting Sun-Mon (7/13) a cutoff gale is forecast developing in the Central South Pacific supposedly producing up to 34 ft seas aimed north-northwest directing swell at Hawaii and Tahiti but low odds of anything into California. And a gale is forecast under New Zealand on Thurs-Fri (7/17) with 36-41 ft seas aimed east and northeast with secondary energy lifting northeast into Sun (7/19) with seas to 27 ft. So there is some hope now.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest was hitting the coast originating from the North Pacific.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being monitored. That said a tropical system is forecast pushing north-northwest off Baja Thurs (7/16) positioned 900 nmiles south of Pt Conception Sat PM (7/18) then fading fast from there. Possible swell pushing up into Southern CA if all this goes as forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (7/12) the jetstream was totally split over the width of the South Pacific with the southern branch running due east on a zonal track on the 63S latitude line with winds to 130-140 kts in 2 pockets but no troughs indicated offering no support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours more of the same is forecast but with a ridge starting to develop under New Zealand early Monday (7/13) pushing the jet south into Antarctica and slowly sweeping east offering no support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting Wednesday (7/14) the ridge is to be pushing east over the SE Pacific actively suppressing gale formation over the width of the South Pacific. But on Thurs (7/16) a weak trough is forecast pushing under New Zealand with more wind energy lifting well northeast in the same location by Sat (7/18) with winds to 130 kts offering good support for gale formation. Something to look forward too.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (7/12) swell from the final gale in a long series was gone in Hawaii and slowly fading in California (see Real New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a cutoff gale is forecast developing over the mid-latitudes of the Central South Pacific on Sun PM (7/12) producing southwest winds at 40 kts starting to get traction on the oceans surface with seas building from 28 ft over a tiny area at 48S 143W aimed north. On Mon AM (7/13) south-southeast winds to build to 45 kts with seas 31 ft at 47.5S 143W aimed north-northwest. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 40-45 kts over a fairly broad area aimed northwest with seas 34 ft at 44.75S 146.5W aimed north-northwest. On Tues AM (7/14) fetch is to be turning east-southeast and fading from 40 kts with seas 29 ft at 49.5S 143.75W aimed northwest. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 30-35 kts with seas 27 ft at 50S 143W aimed west-northwest targeting mainly New Zealand. This system to dissipate after that. Possible swell for Hawaii and Tahiti but cutting well west of the great circle paths up into California.

Real New Zealand Gale
On Sat PM (6/27) a decent sized gale developed down south of New Zealand producing 40-45 kt southwest winds over a solid area aimed east-northeast with seas building from 29-30 ft at 58.5S 172E aimed east-northeast. On Sun AM (6/28) southwest winds were 45 kts with seas building from 35 ft at 58.75S 177.25E aimed east-northeast. In the evening southwest winds were pushing northeast at 35-40 kts over a solid area with seas 37 ft at 55S 167.75W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/29) southwest winds were fading from 30-35 kts still over a decent sized area with seas 29 ft at 52.25S 156.75W aimed northeast. Secondary fetch developed to the west or well southeast of New Zealand in the evening at 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft at 59.25S 176.5E aimed east-northeast and 26 ft at 54S 148W aimed east-northeast. Fetch fading Tues AM (6/30) from 30-35 kts lifting northeast filling the area from under new Zealand to the Central Pacific with seas 27 ft at 53S 140.5W aimed east-northeast. In the evening 40+ kt southwest winds to be building over the Southeast Pacific with seas 28 ft at 57S 139.5W aimed northeast. Wed AM (7/10) that fetch is to be fading from 40 kts over the far SE Pacific with seas 31 ft at 52.75S 128W aimed east and northeast. Fetch dissipating after that. Possible swell to result for HI and CA. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Swell rebuilding slightly Sun (7/12) .to 2.4 ft @ 15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (7/13) from 2.1 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0 ft) early. Residuals on Tues (7/14) fading from 2.0 ft @ 12-13 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 208 degrees moving to 195 degrees.

North CA: Swell rebuilding slightly Sun (7/12) .to 2.1 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (7/13) from 2.1 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft) early. Residuals on Tues (7/14) fading from 2.0 ft @ 12-13 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 206 degrees moving to 190 degrees.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Wed PM (7/15) a storm is forecast developing well south of Tasmania just north of Antarctic Ice with 60 kts west winds and seas building from 44 ft over a small area at 59.5S 143E aimed east. On Thurs AM (7/16) the storm is forecast positioned just off the Ross Ice Shelf south of the Tasman Sea with west winds 50-55 kts and seas 49 ft at 61.25S 152.25E aimed east. In the evening 50 kt west winds to ease east with seas 44 ft at 60.5S 158.25E still a bit southwest of New Zealand but easing to the northeast some. On Fri AM (7/17) then storm is to be under New Zealand with west winds 40 kts and seas 40 ft over a building area south of New Zealand at 57.75S 168.5E aimed east. In the evening west winds to be under New Zealand at 40-45 kts with seas 35 ft at 57.25S 170.75E aimed northeast. On Sat AM (7/18) fetch is to be lifting northeast and fading from 35 kts with seas 28-30 ft over a a large area centered at 56S 177.5E aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds to rebuild to 50 kts with seas 33 ft at 59S 176E aimed northeast. On Sun AM (7/19) southwest winds to be 50 kts lifting well northeast with seas 36 ft at 56.75S 172W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds to be 45+ kts lifting northeast with seas 36 ft at 54.75S 165.25W aimed northeast. Something to possibly monitor.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

Major El Nino Setting Up with Massive Westerly Wind Burst In Control and Becoming Coupled
Large Kelvin Wave #3 Erupting in Ecuador - Another Large Kevin Wave #4 Developing
In Nov '25 westerly anomalies associated with Active Phase of the MJO #1 took root producing a Kelvin Wave pushing warm subsurface waters east. In early January strong Active MJO #2 started producing a second WWB in the far West Pacific producing Kelvin Wave #2. Kelvin Waves #1 & #2 started impacted Ecuador in March. And in late Feb Active Phase #3 developed with strong west anomalies holding into 4/15. Large Kelvin Wave #3 is erupting over Ecuador. And another Westerly Wind Burst started over the KWGA 5/17 and continues today likely setting up Kelvin Wave #4. Lower pressure is building over the dateline and high pressure is building over the Maritime Continent. A full turn to El Nino is setting up over the equatorial Pacific, possibly strongly so. But, east anomalies set up over the East Pacific 6/18 and are to hold onto 7/17 disrupting the upwelling of warm waters in the far East Pacific. Even the model are now showing a disruption in the upwelling temp trend moving forward.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Longterm Swell Forecast Overview (updated 3/29/26): In 2022 La Nina evolved with easterly anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and cooler water at the surface off Ecuador. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Active Phases of the MJO produced several Westerly Wind Bursts (WWB) and Kelvin Waves pushing east resulting in significant oceanic warming over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere by late July, and that spelled the demise of that event. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. The fading of this El Nino only resulted in the buildup of more latent heat energy in the ocean. By Jan 2024 the first signs of the normal reaction to El Nino (failed or not) resulted, with La Nina emerging, but never developed more than Modoki status through Fall 2025. And then in Dec 2025, an Active Phase of the MJO developed with westerly anomalies producing a small Kelvin wave, followed by a slightly stronger one in Feb 2026. And then on March 8, westerly anomalies started building in earnest in the far West Pacific, building to strong status in late March suggesting something more was occurring. The buildup of latent heat energy in the planets ocean seems to ensure it will not be denied.

Rationale: A Modoki La Nina developed in the Fall/Winter of 2024-25. It faded in Summer of 2025 then started turning toward La Nina again in Aug 2025. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina in late Aug, some form of weak La Nina built into the jetstream/atmosphere in late Fall (Dec 2025). But at the surface in the West Pacific a series of 3 Westerly Wind Bursts (WWB) occurred (Dec 26, Feb and then March 2026). Note that the PDO was still be in the cool phase in Fall/Winter 2025-26 but was showing signs of turning neutral as of the time of this writing (3/29/26). The two big unknowns are what will the PDO do (will it overwhelm whatever push there is towards and ENSO) and how much if any of Hunga Tonga volcanoes effect linger in the atmosphere?

Regardless, clear signs of the development of El Nino are present in the West Pacific and are starting to affect surface water temps along Ecuador driven by 2 Kelvin Waves (discussed above). And as third WWB started building as of March 8th with east anomalies starting to develop over the Maritime Continent (all classic signal of a developing El Nino) and a change in the Walker Circulation. All the model suggest some form of El Nino developing ranging from weak to strong if not super El NIno status in late Fall 2026. The million dollar question, is not will it evolve, but rather how strong will it be? Will it stall like the 2023 El Nino, of will it be given the chance to fully express what is likely the significant latent heat signature present in the ocean. El Nino is the planets way to bleed off that excess heat, by discharging it to the atmosphere. We are currently in the Spring Unpredictability Barrier (late March 2026). And though all the models are screaming 'El Nino', there is a significant uncertainty as to the strength of whatever El NIno event is to eventually manifest. It all depends upon whether the oceanic change become coupled wit the atmosphere. And that would be expressed through clear signals of a change in the Walker Circulation.

Assuming a moderate to strong event develops, and assuming the current strong WWB underway in the West Pacific continues somewhat as forecast (3 months of continued west anomalies with 6-8 weeks of very strong anomalies through the Spring of 2026), it seems some signature of this event will make it into the atmosphere starting mid-June 2026 (3 months post the start of the 3rd WWB). That should feed energy into the southern hemi jetstream improving the odds for gale development in the South Pacific to perhaps normal status and erasing the previous bias towards La Nina (and therefore less gale development). So prior to mid-June, a suppressed storm track is expected, but that should build after mid-June netting a "normal" summer swell pattern relative to Hawaii and CA. But, there are a lot of caveats and 'buts' in the forecast, so confidence is not high,. And in fact, the effects of the WWB and Kelvin Waves might not develop till Aug 2026. It's just way too early to know with any certainty.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/11) 5 day average winds were strong east over the East Equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and modest west over the dateline and strong west over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak east over the East Pacific, weak west over the Central Pacific and strong west over the dateline and strong west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (7/12) Using CyclonicWX GFS 850 mb Zonal Wind Anomaly forecast: Moderate west anomalies are forecast over the KWGA for the next 2 weeks unchanged. East anomalies in the East Pacific are to rebuild slightly from here forward east of 120W into the Galapagos likely affecting upwelling of Kevin Wave #3 as has been evidenced already. But this will also help push warm water from previous Kelvin Waves into the Nino3.4 region. The ECMWF model suggest slightly stronger west anomalies and less east anomalies off the Galapagos.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO data: Today (7/12) in the far West Pacific the leading east edge of the 30 degree isotherm was easing east from 162W to 160W. The 29 degree isotherm was retrograding west from 143 to 146W due to east trades there but now east back to 143W The 28 deg isotherm line had migrated from the whole way across the Pacific (96W) then retrograded to 122W, then pushed east to 110W and was steady today at 117W. An amazing push of warm water has moved east in sync with collapse of equatorial tradewinds but is being eroded some now. The 24 deg isotherm had been thickening steadily while pushing into Ecuador down to 79m but was rising today from 75m to 71m. Anomaly wise this strong change is reflected down at the thermocline (-150m) with a Kelvin Wave #3 and +7 degs erupting to the surface in the East Pacific. Kevin Wave #4 is backfilling into that warm pool with +4 deg anomalies or more tracking east from 166W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/7 reflects this strong change too with a huge Kelvin Wave with +4 degs anomalies at the thermocline (-150m) backbuilding from 163W to 165W and into Ecuador and up to +7 degs in it's core from 120W eastward and erupting to the surface in the East Pacific east of 125W. Warm anomalies continue filling the entire subsurface Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/7) Sea heights over most of the equatorial Pacific were positive from 160E pushing into Ecuador and radiating north and south along the South American Coast at +15-20 cms. Kelvin Waves #1 & #2 have already hit (priming the proverbial pump). Kelvin Wave #3 was now filling the entire Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 160E with a large area of +10 cms anomalies pushing east from the dateline and +15 cms pushing east from 145W moving east from 160W compared to past depictions. And +20 cm anomalies were filling the area from 110W to the Galapagos. The entire equatorial West Pacific warm pool is 'sloshing' east.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (7/7) indicates warm anomalies at +2.5 degs C were filling the equatorial Pacific and now building from 125W to 142W impacting Ecuador (80W) since 5/1. In December '25 warm anomalies and Kelvin Wave #1 started pushing east impacting Ecuador late Feb. Kelvin Wave #2 pushed east in Jan and is still impacting Ecuador now but past its prime. Kelvin Wave #3 started impacting Ecuador 5/1 driven by previous westerly anomalies. And kelvin Wave # started hitting the preexisting warm pool on 7/7 building/backfilling it further to the west. A clear sign of discharge was indicated in the west starting late March and much stronger again in mid-April holding through late May, but then recharged 5/28-6/20. But starting 6/21 deeper discharge was occurring over a small area at 155E. That said, actual water temps are +30-+31 degs C in the West and only +25 in the East (+5 degs C difference offering plenty of fuel for future Kelvin Wave development).

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (7/11) In the latest image a clear El Nino signal was present and expanding in coverage. An area of super warm anomalies were in place from Peru up to Ecuador west to the Galapagos and now expanding west of the Galapagos to 115W. But near to the Ecuador temps have faded and become less concentrated as compared to weeks past likely due to stronger east trades there. Still Kelvin Wave #3 is erupting now but it's impacts are being muted nearshore to Ecuador. East anomalies are likely creating some surface cooling. Moderate warm anomalies were west of there from 115W to 160W and lesser warmth east to the dateline if not New Guinea. The ocean started showing clear signs of El Nino in mid-March and the atmosphere is now indicating it 3 months later (mid-June as expected) with coupling starting. Today images are on par for the same date in 1997.Amazing. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): This chart is now showing the development of El Nino too with warm anomalies on the equator from Ecuador to well west of the dateline, warmest near Peru and Ecuador up to the Galapagos.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/11): A neutral temperature trend was indicated over the East equatorial Pacific and weakly warming between 145W to 170W.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/12) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were steady at +2.901, Previously +2.767 (7/4), rising at +2.92 (7/2), previously t +2.726 (6/30), +2.836 (6/21) up from +1.989 (6/1) after being more or less steady at +1.8 since 5/15 up from +0.967 on 5/3. Previously temps had fallen from +1.754 (4/23) down to +1.014 (4/30). Previously they were steady near +1.0 from 2/19-4/7. Before that temps had been on a generally upward trend since 2/2. Previously temps were +0.010 (1/28) up from -0.320 (1/22). Temps had been rising 1/1-1/16, previously down at -1.596 12/30, up at -0.820 (12/20), that up from -1.453 4 days previous (12/19) but had been falling steadily since 12/2.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/12) Today's temps were rising at +1.756 up from +1.380 (7/4), previously +1.293 (6/26) , down some at +1.316 (6/28), at +1.451 (6/21) and had been rising since 6/9, and rising before that steadily from 5/28 at +0.8 degs since (5/2), then +0.597 since 4/23, rising 10 days prior after reaching dead neutral (0.0) on 4/2, the first time in a very long time. Temps have been rising steadily since 1/11, at -1.267 12/27 falling from -0.922 (12/7), rising since 11/26.
Weekly OISST/RONI Anomalies were steady at +1.8/+1.2 RONI (week of 7/1 and 6/24). They were +1.7/+1.1 (6/17), +1.5/0.9 RONI (6/10), +1.3/+0.7 (6/3), +1.0/+0.5 (5/20 & 5/27), +0.9 (4/29, 5/6 & 5/13), +0.4 the first 2 weeks and +0.5 (RONI). Previously temps were +0.7 (4/22), +0.5 (+0.1 relative 4/15), +0.2 (3/25, 4/1 & 4/8), 0.0 degs (March 11 & 18), -0.1 (3 weeks 2/18-3/4), -0.2 (2/11), 0-0.5 (2/4), -0.4 (1/28), -0.3 (1/21), -0.7 (1/14), -0.8 (1/7), -0.5 (12/31), -0.7 (12/24), -0.8 (12/17), -0.7 (12/10), -0.5 (12/3),. -0.6 (11/26), -0.8 (11/19), -0.7 (11/5 & 11/12), -0.6 (10/15, 10/22 & 10/29), -0.3 (10/8), -0.5 (9/24 & 10/1), -0.4 (9/17), -0.5 (9/10), -0.3 (9/3), -0.4 (8/20 & 8/27).
Monthly Data is +0.93 May, +0.42 April, +0.09 March, -0.12 Feb, -0.41 Jan, -0.57 Dec, -0.64 Nov, -0.50 Oct, -0.45 Sept, -0.32 Aug, -0.10 July -0.01 June, -0.02 May, -0.02 April, +0.11 March, -0.28 Feb, -0.56 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.06 MAM, -0.45 FMA, -0.71 (JFM), -0.88 (DJF), -0.97 (NDJ), -0.93 OND, -0.87 SON, -0.77 (ASO). -0.63 (JAS), -0.47 (JJA), -0.43 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Jan Relative temps were -1.0 turning neutral (0.0) in April +1.0 in June.
Forecast (7/12) - Temps are forecast rising dramatically from here forward. Raw forecast suggests temp peaking at +4.20 Nov 1with a 3 month average of +3.90 Oct-Dec. The Relative forecast has temps peaking at +3.45 degs in early Dec with a 3 month average around +3.18. It looks like we are moving into some flavor of El Nino, trending towards 'super' status. But note: A step in the curve has developed in the June-July timeframe, suggesting cooling in Ecuador is ongoing and will likely impact the development of these super warm temps. But somehow, temps are to rebound even stronger than the previous trend. I am suspicious of that trend.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 22, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are rising fast at +1.5 today (JJA). Temps to rise to +1.45 in JJA and and 2.0 OND. The Dynamic average suggest temps rising to +2.6 SON. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to +1.95 (NDJ). Relative temps to reach 3.0 degs SON. Per the average of all models, we are at moderate El Nino status today and moving to minimal Super status in the Fall.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index is a lagging indicator the 30 day average lagging 15 days and the 90 day average lagging 45 days):
The SOI is clearly indicating an El Nino signal.
Today (7/12) the Daily Index was -38.53, and has been almost exclusively negative since 3/25 and at times very negative (-30 or less). It dipped to -44.81 on 7/7.
The 30 day average was falling at -23.21 after peaking at -23.61 (6/27) and had been falling from -21.32 a month ago.
The 90 day average was falling at -16.92 after turning negative the first time in a very long time on 5/14 at -0.07. It was -12.35 a month ago.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.56 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.80 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.13 and -2.03 in Dec 2024 and -1.29 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was steady if not falling in May at -1.61, April at -1.25, March -1.44, Feb -1.01, Jan -1.26, Dec 2025 -0.96, -1.51 Nov, -2.37 Oct, -2.31 Sept (and in line with average readings since Nov 2021), -3.23 Aug after falling hard in July at -4.21 (the lowest ever), -2.64 June, -1.66 May, -1.15 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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ESPN Sports Center 'Ride of a Lifetime' - The backstory of Alo Slebir's possible 100+ ft wave at Mevericks - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table