Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 12.6 secs from 178 degrees. Water temp 80.8 (Barbers Pt), 80.1 (Pearl Harbor 233), 81.1 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were NA ft @ NA secs with swell NA ft @ NA secs from NA degrees. Water temp 77.9 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 3.5 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 6.4 secs from 41 degrees. Water temp 79.9 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 4.1 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 13.9 secs from 230 degrees. Wind north 10-12 kts. Water temperature 68.9 degs, 61.0 (Harvest 071), 66.4 (Topanga 103), 60.6 (Long Beach 215), 66.9 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 68.4 (Del Mar 153), 70.5 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.1 ft @ 15.1 secs from 189 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.2 ft @ 5.5 secs from 261 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.7 ft @ 14.8 secs from 206 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.9 ft @ 14.7 secs from 187 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.5 ft @ 13.7 secs from 194 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.9 ft @ 14.6 secs from 189 degrees. Water temperature 70.7 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 3.8 ft @ 14.3 secs with southern hemi swell 2.4 ft @ 14.8 secs from 176 degrees. Wind NA (Bodega Bay 46013), NW 10-12 kts San Francisco (46026), NW 8-9 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and W 10 (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 57.0 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 60.6 (San Francisco 46026), 60.3 (SF Bar 142), 59.0 (Half Moon Bay 1801589), 59.5 (Monterey Bay 46092) and NA (Soquel Cove S).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Friday (7/25) in North and Central CA surf was thigh to maybe waist high and weakly lined up and closed out and mushed and slightly warbled modest northwest wind early. Protected breaks were flat and textured breaking on the beach. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to chest high on the bigger sets and lined up and a bit closed out/sectiony but clean. In Ventura County waves were knee to thigh high and barely lined up and if anything warbled and just random wind waves though surface conditions were clean with no wind blowing. Central Orange County had sets at shoulder to near head high and lined up but pretty closed out with some surface warble though wind was calm. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets to chest high and weakly lined up but pretty warbled though local wind was dead calm with clean conditions. North San Diego had sets at waist high and weakly lined up and soft and crumbled with calm winds early. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had sets at thigh to maybe waist high and weakly lined up with decent form and clean but soft. The East Shore was getting trade wind generated east windswell at waist high and chopped from moderate east-southeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Friday (7/25) Hawaii was getting no swell of interest. California was getting small swell originating from a very weak gale that developed Mon-Tues (7/15) in the far Southeast Pacific producing 24 ft seas aimed north. Beyond virtually no swell producing weather systems of interest occurred with no swell in the water heading north towards HI and CA until Wed (7/23) when a small gale started developing in the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific producing 28-29 ft seas aimed briefly north at Hawaii and CA then dissipating on Thurs (6/24). A broader gale started developing over the same area on Thurs (7/24) and is to continue lifting due north into Sat (7/26) with 35-37 ft seas aimed well north. Swell if focused on Hawaii. And yet another is forecast over the Central South Pacific Tues-Wed (7/30) with 28-31 ft seas aimed due north. An interesting pattern is shaping up with no shortage of swell potential. And potentially more gale formation is to occur in the deep Southwest Pacific starting a week out.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Friday (7/25) no swell of interest was hitting our forecast area.

Tropical Update
See Longterm Forecast below for potential tropical development off Japan. Otherwise no tropical weather systems of interest are forecast or being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Sat AM (7/26) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. No windswell forecast.
Sun AM (7/27) northwest winds to build some at 15 kts over a very shallow area for North CA and 15 kts steady south of Monterey Bay early. In the afternoon northwest winds build at 15 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. Low odds of bare minimal short period windchop resulting.
Mon AM (7/28) northwest winds to be 15 kts over a shallow area for North and Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North and Central CA. Low odds of small northwest local windswell possible.
Tues AM (7/29) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon a pressure gradient develops with northwest winds 15-20 kts for North and Central CA. Small northwest windswell likely.
Wed AM (7/30) northwest winds to be 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and 15 kts elsewhere in North CA and 15+ kts for all of Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20+ kts for Cape Mendocino and 15-20 kts for the rest of North and all of Central CA. Windswell building.
Thurs AM (7/31) northwest winds to be 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and 15-20 kts for the rest of North and all of Central CA early. No real change in the afternoon. Northwest windswell building some.
Fri AM (8/1) northwest winds to be 20+ kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA early. Northwest windswell holding.

Sierra Hikers Temperature Forecast (Intersection of the Pacific Crest Trail and Tioga Pass Road at 8,700 ft): Temps 45-50 degs Fri-Sat (7/26) then rising some with temps building Sun (7/26) at 55-60 degrees holding through Fri (8/1) then 60 degrees steady through the end of the model run on Sun (8/3).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Friday (7/25) the jet was split with the southern branch forming a weak trough southeast of New Zealand being fed by a pocket of 110 kt winds lifting north trying to support gale formation over the Central South Pacific. Over the next 72 hours Sat (7/26) that trough is to be well to the north and getting cutoff from the main flow which is to be over the Ross Ice Shelf and no longer supporting gale formation. But starting Sun (7/27) another more real looking trough is forecast developing southeast of New Zealand being fed by 120-130 kt winds starting to support gale formation. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (7/28) the trough is to build while tracking east being fed by 140 kt winds while also lifting hard north and over the Central South Pacific into early Wed (7/30) offering good support for gale formation. Back to the west a big ridge is to be setting up sweeping southeast under and southeast of New Zealand down at 70S on Wed (7/30) likely shutting down any support for gale formation. But another trough is forecast trying to develop in the deep Central South Pacific on Fri (8/1) being fed by 140 kts winds offering some more potential.

Surface Analysis
On Friday (7/25) small swell was hitting California originating from a small weak gale previously in the far Southeast Pacific (see Another Weaker SE Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a primer gale previously over Central South Pacific is to be radiating north (see Primer Gale below).

And another gale started developing southeast of New Zealand on Thurs AM (7/24) with 50-55 kt south winds and seas 33 ft over a small area at 55.75S 179.5E starting to lift northeast. In the evening the gale was tracking east-northeast with 50-55 kt south winds building over a reasonable sized area and seas building from 34 ft at 52.5S 169.25W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (7/25) south winds built in coverage at 45 kts lifting north with seas 37 ft at 48S 164.75W aimed north. In the evening the gale is to be fading while lifting north targeting Hawaii well with a solid area of 40 kt south winds and seas 36 ft at 44S 163.25W aimed north-northeast. On Sat AM (7/26) south winds to start dissipating from 35-40 kts with seas fading from 32 ft at 40.25S 165W aimed north. In the evening south winds to hold at 35 kts lifting north with seas fading from 27 ft at 34.5S 162W aimed north. On Sun AM (7/27) southwest winds to be fading from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 25 ft at 32S 158W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Another Weaker SE Pacific Gale
On Mon PM (7/14) a gale developed in the deep far Southeast Pacific with 35-40 kts south winds and seas building from 24 ft at 51S 124W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (7/15) 35 kt south winds persisted unmoving with seas 24 ft at 55.5S 120W aimed north. In the evening south winds were lifting north-northeast at 30-35 kts with seas 25 ft at 53S 119W aimed north-northeast. On Wed AM (7/16) fetch was gone. Given that seas barely reached 25 ft it seems likely no meaningful swell will survive the long journey north to California.

Southern CA: Swell fading Fri (7/25) from 2.1 ft @ 13 secs early (2.5 ft). Dribbles Sat (7/26) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

North CA: Swell fading Fri (7/25) from 2.4 ft @ 13-14 secs early (3.0 ft). Dribbles Sat (7/26) fading from 2.2 ft @ 13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

Primer Gale
On Wed AM (7/23) a tiny gale developed over the Central South Pacific producing 40-45 kt south winds with seas building from 27 ft at 49.75S 159.75W aimed due north. The gale was fading in the evening while lifting north with south winds fading from 35+ kts with seas 28-29 ft over a tiny area at 45.5S 161W aimed north. On Thurs AM (7/24) fetch was fading from 35 kts from the south with seas fading from 25 ft over a tiny area at 42.5S 159W aimed north. Fetch and seas were gone after that. Maybe small swell to track towards Hawaii and California.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival late on Tues (7/29) building to 1.2 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell building on Wed (7/30) reaching 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell holding on Thurs (7/31) at 2.1 ft @ 14 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft) while being overrun by new swell. Swell Direction: 188 degrees

South California: Expect swell arrival late on Thurs (7/31) building to 1.0 ft @ 17 secs (1.5 ft). Swell building on Fri (8/1) to 1.3 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell peaking Sat (8/2) at 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs late AM (2.0 ft). Swell being overrun by new swell after that. Swell Direction: 210 moving to 205 degrees

North California: Expect swell arrival late on Thurs (7/31) building to 1.0 ft @ 17 secs (1.5 ft). Swell building later on Fri (8/1) to 1.2 ft @ 16 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell peaking Sat (8/2) at 1.3 ft @ 15 secs late AM (2.0 ft). Swell being overrun by new swell after that. Swell Direction: 210 moving to 205 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a tropical system is to be building off Japan Sat-Sun (7/27) possible starting to recurve northeast Tues-Wed (7/30) with up to 44 ft seas aimed east (32N 154.75E) then fading later Thurs AM (7/31) while still a ways from even the dateline (32 ft seas fading at 34.25N 158.75E aimed east-northeast). Odds are very low of any of this actually concurring. But it's something to monitor. Otherwise no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

Beyond 72 hours starting Mon AM (7/28) a broad gale is to be building in the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific with south winds 35 kts aimed north with seas building. In the evening south winds to be 40-45 kts over a developing area with seas 23 ft at 38.25S 153.5W aimed north. Fetch is to be building Tues AM (7/29) at 40-45 kts over a large area aimed north and northeast with seas 28 ft at 41.25S 143.75W aimed north and northeast. In the evening south winds continue at 40-45 kts over a broad area positioned well north and aimed north with seas 31 ft over a solid area at 44.75S 139.75W. Fetch starts fading Wed AM (7/30) while lifting north from 35-40 kts with seas 30 ft up at 37.75S 139.5W aimed north. Fetch fading in the evening from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 26-27 ft at 35S 138W aimed north. Fetch dissipating Thurs AM (7/31) from 30 kts aimed well north with seas fading from 25 ft at 32S 131W aimed northeast. The extreme northward push of this system should minimize swell decay targeting a swath from Hawaii to California.

La Nina Trying to Return
West Anomalies and Lower Pressure Setting Up over the West Pacific - but Cool Water Erupting in NINO3.4
In April 2025 weakly warm water surged east filling the Equatorial West Pacific and was building into the East Equatorial Pacific today. And a low pressure bias was moving fast into the West Pacific and forecast moving to 165E in the next month beyond ushering in a split ENSO pattern, with El Nino like conditions in the west and La Nina like conditions in the east. The atmosphere was still under momentum of a weak La Nina while the Ocean was trying to transition to ENSO neutral if not weak El Nino (in the west).

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but by late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina, it seemed La Nina would not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025, which it did. La Nina was fading fast in the ocean by April 2025 but the effects on the atmosphere will take 3 months to materialize. So for the Summer of 2025 we should be moving from a weak Modoki La Nina pattern atmospherically to a neutral ENSO pattern by July. The PDO also appears to be trending towards neutral after a long and deep run negative. The net result is a trend towards ENSO neutral as Summer progresses. The big question is will a neutral ENSO set up an atmosphere with no momentum, or will the push from La Nina to neutral result in net momentum supportive of storm development. At least for the moment (4/27/25), the southern hemi is incredibly productive for the time of year, suggesting there is good momentum in the atmosphere. We suspect some sort of near 'normal' summertime swell production potential will play out - not negatively influenced ny La Nina but not enhanced by a developing El Nino either. Just totally normal, if such a thing is even possible.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/24) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (7/25) Today modest east anomalies were filling the KWGA. Weak to modest east anomalies are to continue holding filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 8/10. This is not as hoped for and is a big downgrade. .

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (7/24) Currently a modestly Active MJO (wet air) was filling the KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Active Phase weakening on day 5 of the model run and almost gone then turning neutral on day 10 and then turning weakly Inactive (dry air) on day 15 of the model run. The Dynamic model indicates the same thing but with the day 15 Inactive Phase stronger than the statistic model. This is a big downgrade and along with the GFS model suggests a far weaker pattern than projected even 7 days ago.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (7/25) - The models depict the Active Phase was modest over the West Pacific today. The statistic model has it collapsing while tracking over Africa and very week 15 days out. The dynamic model indicates the same thing. .
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (7/25) This model depicts a weak to modest Active Phase (wet air) stationary over the Central Maritime Continent. The forecast has it moving into the West KWGA 7/30 then tracking slowly east over the KWGA through 8/14. After that a weak Inactive Phase (dry air) is to set up over the KWGA 8/19 filling it through the last day of the model run on 9/3 while tracking east. But this model has been teasing eastward movement of the Active Phase for 2 months now with none of that actually occurring.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/24) Today modest east anomalies were filling the KWGA from 135E and points east of there with west anomalies over the Maritime Continent. The forecast has very weak west anomalies building over the KWGA 7/26 reaching to the dateline 7/31 holding into 8/7 with an Active Contour developing on the dateline 7/25 and tracking east from there and of no real interest to the greater Pacific circulation pattern. Then modest east anomalies are to set up filling the KWGA 8/6 filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 8/21. An Inactive contour is to move over the KWGA starting 8/12 and easing east through the end of the model run on 8/21.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/25) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today 2 Active MJO contours were building over the West Pacific with west anomalies filling the West Pacific reaching east to the dateline with solid east anomalies east of the dateline. The Active Contour is to build to 3 contours holding and filling the KWGA through 8/16 with west anomalies in control during that timeframe. 2 Inactive contours are to set up 8/10 in the west reaching the dateline 8/16 holding through 8/30 with west anomalies filling the KWGA to 175E. On 9/5 another Active Phase develops over the West KWGA building with 2 contours filling the KWGA and holding in some capacity through the end of the model run on 10/22 with west anomalies building to modest status west of 165E holding unchanged through the end of the model run and east anomalies are to hold east if that point. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (started 4/28/24) with one contour and started slowly easing east into the West Pacific on 6/30, then starting moving more aggressively east 7/11 from 125E reaching 150E 7/29 and is to push to 160E 8/5 then holding there through the end of the model run. The high pressure bias was east of the dateline with 1 contour today. That contour is collapsing east and is to reach 140W 8/15 then returning to 170E late Sept and holding there beyond. This suggests that both the high and low pressure bias's are to be tracking east with the dividing line at 165E starting 8/20 and that dividing line holding from there forward with the low pressure bias and west anomalies nearly filling the KWGA beyond.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: The array is now fully operational east of 160E.
Today (7/25) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 180W. The 28 deg isotherm line has backtracked from 163W to 165W but is steady there. The 24 degree isotherm has retracted from Ecuador at 12 meters deep now to surfacing at 104W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific down 180m and running east but breaking at 142W with warm anomalies again building to +2 degs east of the break point at 125W on to Ecuador. And cold anomalies down to -4 degrees are building at depth centered at 155W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/17 indicates neutral to slightly warm anomalies were filling the upper thermocline (75 meters or higher) with what appears to be a Kelvin Wave pushing east across the deep thermocline (100-150m down) from the dateline to Ecuador and erupting in pockets east of the Galapagos. But the density of those warm anomalies was thinning and cool anomalies were building below it in the East, though not breaking through like the TAO data suggests. Warm anomalies were filling the deep West Pacific with weak warm anomalies filling the deep East Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/17) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were neutral 2 degrees north and south of the equator but -5 cms on the equator between 120W-165W and growing. Temps were weakly positive in the east from 110W and points east of there and somewhat stronger positive in the west reaching east to 170E. Negative anomalies at up to -15 cms were 5 degrees north of the equator at 135W and -10 cms at 165W and -25 cms 7 degrees south of the equator at 130W. It appears the cool pool is trying to rebuild over the equator. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (7/17) indicates the cool pool in the east dissipated on 4/12 while warm anomalies built over the equatorial Pacific. But now cool anomalies are depicted from 170W and points east of there with aa small pocket of cooler anomalies at -0.5 to -1.0 degs between 125W to 145W and building in coverage, the first since 4/20. It looks like La Nina is returning.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (7/24) The latest images depict weakly warming water temps over the West and East Equatorial Pacific with a clear cooling pattern between 110W-180W (NINO3.4). Cool anomalies were also streaming off the California coast falling southwest reaching to 15N south of Hawaii then dissipating outlining the normal Springtime Gulf of Alaska high pressure system and looking less defined as weeks past. This looks like ENSO Neutral. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were over the West Pacific with cooler waters from the 170E and points east of there.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/24): Temps were cooling in pockets from Ecuador to 160W.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/25) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were falling at -0.137, up at +0.23 degs 7/16 falling to -0.080 9 days earlier (7/12) after inching up at +0.209 7/8 after being down as low as -0.2 (6/25), falling from +0.31 on 6/15, down at -0.087 6/12, +0.38 on 6/8, and previously up to +0.426 degs (5/29).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/25) Today's temps continued falling to -0.57` after being steady at -0.065 7/9 and holding there since 7/4 after being steady at -0.136 since 6/23 previously up in a peak at -0.173 (6/4) and had been falling 5/8-5/16 from 0.00 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were falling at -0.2 on July 16. Previously temps were +0.1 (7/9), 0.0 (7/2), +0.1 (6/25), +0.2 (6/18), 0.0 (6/4 & 6/11), -0.1 (5/28), -0.2 (5/21), -0.1 degs (5/14), +0.1 (5/17), -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.06 June, -0.13 May, -0.14 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-July.
Forecast (7/25) - Temps to start fading in July falling in Nov down to -0.70, then rising back to neutral in Feb 2026 and rising to +0.20 in April. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same with temps falling to -0.70 degs. It looks like we're in ENSO neutral pattern heading to some flavor of La Nina in the Fall of '25, turning neutral in early 2026.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 18, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are at -0.158. Temps to slowly fall to -0.345 in Oct, then rising some from there. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.392 OND then rising some to +0.174 at the end of the model run on MAM. The Statistic model suggests temps falling to -0.311 NDJ rising to -0.170 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are ENSO neutral now and forecast to hold there into Winter 25-26 biased cool.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (7/25) the Daily Index was positive at +7.88 and positive 18 days prior, negative the previous 3 days, then generally positive the previous 15 days, negative 6 days before that, toggling around neutral 5/30-6/13, solidly positive 5/23-5/29 (6 days) previous, mostly negative the previous 22 days and mixed 7 days prior, but otherwise steadily positive the previous month.
The 30 day average was falling some at +4.06 but has been generally holding the last month and now in ENSO neutral territory.
The 90 day average was rising some at +2.34 and weakly on the high side of ENSO neutral.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was falling in June (2025) at -2.51, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.