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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, July 26, 2018 4:07 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
4.2 - California & 3.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 7/23 thru Sun 7/29

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Swell #4S Fading in CA
SPac Storm Pattern Quiet and Nothing is Forecast

BUOY ROUNDUP

On Thursday, July 26, 2018 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 2.4 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 9.8 secs from 174 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 15.3 secs from 177 degrees. Wind at the buoy was east at 6-10 kts. Water temperature 71.2 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 1.3 ft @ 16.0 secs from 189 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.4 ft @ 15.3 secs from 193 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 3.3 ft @ 15.6 secs from 214 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.7 ft @ 15.3 secs from 187 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.9 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 15.9 secs from 189 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 14-18 kts. Water temp 57.0 degs.

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (7/26) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing surf in the waist high plus range and warbled if not nearly chopped from northwest wind. Protected breaks were waist high and soft but cleaner if not nearly glassy. At Santa Cruz surf southern hemi swell was still hitting with set waves head high and lined up and clean but occasionally slow. In Southern California/Ventura surf was waist to maybe chest high on the sets and clean and lined up but slow. In North Orange Co waves were head high if not a little overhead on the peak of the bigger sets and lined up and clean coming from the south with light to calm wind. South Orange Country's best breaks were finally in the zone for this swell with set waves 1-2 ft overhead and clean and lined up and peeling. In North San Diego surf was head high on the sets and lined up and nearly closed out but fairly clean but a bit on the soft side with light southwest winds early. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and ruffled with sideshore texture. The South Shore was small with sets at waist to chest high and real clean but slow. The East Shore was getting small east windswell at waist high and lightly chopped from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (7/26) still solid energy from Central South Pacific Storm #4S was hitting California, but down some from the 2 days previous. The same swell was all but gone in Hawaii. Swell #4S was produced by a solid system that tracked under New Zealand and started building Sat-Tues (7/17) while lifting well northeast through the Central Pacific with 31 ft seas from the initial pulse and up to 40 ft seas from a stronger second pulse. Looking at the forecast charts a tiny gale is develop just east of New Zealand and a stronger one is developing in the deep Southeast Pacific but neither hold any real swell production potential. Nothing else is forecast to follow either. Windswell is to only other option.

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Thursday AM (7/26) no swell of interest was in the water nor being generated in the North Pacific other than local windswell.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast other than windswell.

Windswell Forecast
California: On Thurs (7/26) a steady northerly flow at 15-20 kts was along the North and Central CA coast generated by high pressure at 1030 mbs centered just 600 nmiles east of Washington resulting in small short period junky windswell at exposed breaks. By Friday (7/27) more of the same is forecast with high pressure at 1030 mbs holding in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska continuing the light pressure gradient along the North and Central CA coast resulting in north winds at mostly 20 kts over all of North and Central CA but more concentrated over North CA again producing short period junky local north windswell. More of the same is expected on Sat (7/28). Sunday (7/29) the gradient is to fade some with north winds 15+ kts over all of North and Central CA waters and maybe to 20 kts over North CA producing just short period really junky windswell with poor local conditions. See QuikCASTs for details.

Hawaii: On Thurs (7/26) a pair of weak tropical wave were moving west with one south of Hawaii and the second 600 nmiles southeast of the Big Island with high pressure in the Eastern Gulf feeding a weak local gradient producing east winds at 15 kts targeting mainly the Big Island but offering some odds for short period junky east windswell at exposed breaks along all south facing shores. On Friday (7/27) the more easterly tropical wave is to be 300 nmiles southeast of the Big Island producing easterly fetch at 15 kts targeting all the Islands with east fetch extending 700 nmiles east of Hawaii offering some hope for small short period junky windswell. But by Sat (7/28) that fetch is to start fading as the tropical wave passes 300 nmiles south of Hawaii and the fetch gone by evening. Low odds of any windswell resulting. Supposedly on Sun (7/29) high pressure in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska is to pulse some generating a thin fetch of east winds at 15 kts extending from California the whole way almost continuously to Hawaii resulting in improved odds for some decent windswell production along all exposed east facing shores. See QuikCASTs for details.

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
Tropical Storm Jongdari was 600 nmiles south of Tokyo Japan on Thurs (7/26) with winds 60 kts tracking northeast and forecast to build while taking a turn to the north on Fri (7/27) with winds peaking at 90-95 kts, then turning northwest and moving into Japan near Kyoto on Sat (7/28) No swell production for our forecast area is expected.

Tropical Storm Wukong was 300 nmiles south of the Central Kuril Islands tracking north with winds 35 kts and is forecast to fade while continuing on this heading and all but gone in 24 hrs. No swell production of interest is forecast.

 

California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday (7/26) 15-20 kt north winds were occurring nearshore over all of North and Central CA. On Fri (7/27) north winds to hold at 15 kts over all of Central CA and 20 kts over North CA with pockets to 25 kts. No real change on Saturday (7/28). Sunday (7/29) north winds are forecast at 15-20 kts over all of Central CA and 20+ kts over North CA and continuing on Mon (7/30) and Tues (7/31). Wednesday (8/1) north winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for Central CA and 25-30 kts over North CA waters and continuing on Thurs (8/2).

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday AM (7/26) the southern branch of the jetstream was running zonal (west to east) down at 65S and very weak over Antarctic Ice except with a weak trough east of the Southern CA swell window at 95W being fed by 130 kts winds and of interest only to Southern Chile. Over the next 72 hours through Sun (7/29) the same basic pattern is to hold with a southward displaced zonal flow running east on the 65S latitude line offering no support for gale development. A pocket of wind energy at 140 kts is to develop in the far Southeast Pacific on Fri (7/27) but not really lifting north and pushing east of the Southern Ca swell window in the evening is forecast, offering only weak odds for support for gale production. Beyond 72 hours the weak zonal flow is to continue with a ridge developing south of New Zealand on Mon (7/30) pushing the jet down to 70S suppressing gale development more while sweeping east. And a more energetic ridge is to develop behind that on Wed (8/1) being fed by 100 kt winds pushing the jet to 70S and sweeping east again actively suppressing gale development. An unfavorable pattern to support gale development is setting up in the upper atmosphere.

Surface Analysis  
On Thursday (7/26) swell energy from a gale that tracked northeast through the Central Pacific (Storm #4S) was still hitting California but has dissipated in Hawaii (see Central Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours Swell #4S is to fade in California. No other swell producing weather systems are forecast.

That said a tiny cutoff gale is to develop on Thurs PM (7/26) 450 nmiles east of New Zealand with 40 kt southwest winds and seas building from 28 ft over a tiny area at 42S 168W. On Fri (7/28) that tiny gale cutoff from the main energy of the jetstream is to build some with west winds to 45 kts producing seas of 30 ft at 43S 165W aimed mostly east. Fetch is to fade in the evening down to 35 kts from the west with seas 31 ft at 42S 159W. This system is to be gone by Sat AM (7/28). Small swell for Tahiti is possible.

Also on Fri AM (7/27) a storm is to form in the deep Southeast Pacific Fri AM (7/27) with 55 kt south winds pushing north just barely clear of Antarctic Ice generating 35 ft seas over a tiny area at 61S 130W. In the evening southwest winds to be 50 kts solid aimed northeast with seas 38 ft at 58.5S 114W and moving outside the Southeast CA swell window. This system is to strengthen from there but only targeting Southern Chile and well east of the CA swell window. Low odds of any swell resulting for California.

 

Central Pacific Gale (Swell #4S)
Another gale started developing southeast of New Zealand on Sat AM (7/14) tracking northeast with winds from the southwest at 40 kts over a building area and seas building from 29 ft at 57.5S 176W and building while lifting hard northeast. In the evening a moderate sized fetch of 40 kt southwest winds were lifting east-northeast with seas 31 ft at 52.5S 164.5W. On Sun AM (7/15) fetch was fading from 35 kts from the south-southwest with seas 31 ft at 49.5S 152.5W aimed well to the north. Swell was in the water pushing north-northeast but for the most part this was just primer activity. In the evening the fetch is to dissipate from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 29 ft at 44S 145W. But secondary fetch (which is really the main event) is to be developing solidly at 45 kts southwest of it tracking northeast with seas building from 37 ft down at 60S 167.5W tracking northeast. On Mon AM (7/16) only the secondary fetch is to be viable at 45 kts from the south-southwest lifting northeast with seas 39 ft at 53.5S 155.5W. The gale is to fade some in the evening with south winds 40-45 kts and seas 38 ft at 49S 148W aimed north-northeast over a solid area. On Tues AM (7/17) additional 45 kt southwest fetch is to build in the upper reaches of the Central Pacific aimed north-northeast with seas 35 ft at 44S 141W aimed solidly northeast. In the evening fetch is to fade from 40-45 kts over a fragmented area with seas 32 ft fading at 41S 135W. Fetch fading out Wed AM (7/18) from 35-40 kts and seas fading from 31 ft aimed northeast at 43S 127W. A good pulse of swell is possible targeting California down into Mexico, Central America and South America. Something to monitor.

South California: Swell fading on Thurs (7/26) from 3.1 ft @ 15 secs (4.5-5.0 ft). Residuals on Fri (7/27) fading from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell gone after that. Swell Direction: 191-201 degrees

North California: Swell fading on Thurs (7/26) from 2.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.0 ft). Residuals on Fri (7/27) fading from 2.2 ft @ 14 secs (3.0 ft). Swell gone after that. Swell Direction: 190-200 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

Windswell Forecast
California:
No real change is forecast on Mon (7/30) with high pressure at 1032 mbs in the Central Gulf ridging east producing north winds at 15 kts down the Central Coast and up to 20 kts over North CA resulting in more junky short period windswell at exposed breaks. Tuesday (7/31) the gradient is to become a little more defined over North CA later with north winds there 20-25 kts and 15 kts down into Central CA with slightly bigger but still junky windswell being produced. Finally on Wed (8/1) the gradient is to develop solidly over North CA with north winds there 25+ kts with 15 kts north winds nearshore over Central CA and larger more defined windswell resulting. And by Thurs (8/2) north winds to build to 30 kts over North CA and maybe a weak eddy flow (south winds) to set up over Central CA offering odds for larger windswell and better conditions down into Central CA.

Hawaii: On Monday (7/30) the easterly flow is to bloom in continuity and width streaming from California over Hawaii at 15 kts solid and being enhanced some by a tropical system about 900 east-southeast of the Big Island. Solid odds for modest east windswell along east facing shores. More of the same is forecast on Tues (7/31) with a solid fetch of 15 kts east winds covering the area between California and Hawaii while the tropical system fades 700 nmiles east of the Big Island. More windswell production expected. More of the same forecast on Wed (8/1) with east winds 20 kts resulting as the remnants of the tropical wave lift northeast just 250 nmiles east of the Big Island. Increase windswell size is expected. Thurs (8/2) the fetch is to fade extending from California and east winds locally over Hawaii to still be 20 kts, but only extending 200 miles east of Hawaii. East windswell holding early, then starting to fade.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the models indicate virtually no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

In short, a quiet/swell drought pattern is setting up.

Details to follow...

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

Kelvin Wave Eruption Continues - ESPI Continues to Rebound

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and have not stopped, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and was building over equatorial waters in July, suggesting the demise of La Nina and possibly turning towards El Nino.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2018 (California & Hawaii) = 4.0
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Wed (7/25) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific then weakening starting on the dateline turning only lightly east over the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were light easterly over the East equatorial Pacific holding to a point south of Hawaii then turning to neutral anomalies and holding that way over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (7/26) light to modest westerly anomalies were over the KWGA and forecast to hold into 7/29. But on 7/30 weak easterly anomalies are to start filling the KWGA and holding through the end of the model run on 8/2.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (7/25) A moderate Active/Wet MJO signal was over the KWGA but with dry anomalies over the dateline. The statistical model depicts that Active/Wet MJO signal is to steadily weaken and gone at day 15 while the Inactive/Dry Phase of the MJO holds over the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent. The dynamic model depicts the same thing initially but after the Active Phase fades, it returns weakly in the far West Pacific on day 15. The models are mostly in sync except for the last few days of the run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (7/26) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was moderate over the Western Pacific. It is to stall from here forward while collapsing in strength in the West Pacific making no further eastward progress through the end of the model run 2 weeks out. The GEFS model has not updated.
40 day Upper Level Model: (7/26) This model depicts a very weak Active/Wet MJO signal was over the Central and East Pacific and is to be easing east over Central America on 8/12. A modest and weak Inactive/Dry pattern is to follow in the West Pacific starting 8/4 making slow east headway reaching the East Pacific and moving into Central America at the end of the model run on 9/4.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/25) This model depicts modest west anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates modest west anomalies are to hold through the end of the model run in the KWGA through 8/22 except for a 3 day run of east anomalies on the dateline on starting 7/27.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/26) This model depicts the Active/Wet Phase of the MJO has peaked over the KWGA with weak west anomalies over the entirety of the KWGA. The weak Active MJO pattern is to hold through 8/4 then fading with a weak Inactive MJO signal taking over 8/8-8/28 but with weak west anomalies holding over the KWGA. No Westerly Wind Burst is suggested with today's update, regardless of what previous model runs indicated. A weak Active Phase of the MJO is to redevelop on 9/4 holding through then end of the model run on 10/23 with solid west anomalies in the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias is fully in control of the KWGA reaching east to 145W and has built from 2 contour lines to 3 on 7/8 and forecast to build starting today and then holding through the end of the model run. This means we are biased towards El Nino starting today through the coming Fall season. The eastern edge of the Low Pressure bias is to ease east to 120W (over California) by 10/6. The high pressure bias is currently limited to an area south of California and shrinking steadily and is to be gone by 8/19. The atmosphere and ocean are slowly becoming coupled towards an El Nino bias and should fully reach that state on 8/8 or 3 months after the start of when the low pressure bias officially filled the KWGA (on 5/8). This pattern is more favorable to support storm production in the Pacific.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/26) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs reaching east to 165E. The 28 deg isotherm line started to retrograde west from 148W on 7/2 to 153W on 7/10 and is now at 158W today due to weakening of a Kelvin Wave under the West Pacific. The 28 degs line previously was stationary on the dateline last winter, then started moving east on 5/15 to 165W, then to 160W on 5/22 and to 150W on 6/24 from the surface to 75 meters deep. The 24 deg isotherm was previously stable at 115 meters deep at 140W but has risen to 100 metes deep today. It was holding at 75 meters deep at 120W then retracting from the coast of Ecuador breaching at 105W. Anomaly wise warm waters from a Kelvin Wave are focused in the East Pacific at depth and well past their peak. Warm anomalies at +1.0 deg C were moving east from the far West Pacific and building to +2.0 deg C starting at 130W 100 meters down and pushing east. +3.0 degs anomalies were centered from 115W and +1.0 deg anomalies were east of there pushing into Ecuador. These warm waters are no longer breaching the surface. This Kelvin Wave had peaked and is to continue slowly fading. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/22 depicts a bubble of warm water pushing east in the East Pacific starting at 140W building to +4.5 degs centered at 120W extending east to Ecuador. It was breaching the surface between 105W-140W. Additionally more warm water was pushing east from the Maritime Continent spilling into the West Pacific pushing under the dateline reaching east to 170W and building in coherency with broken fragments of warm water joining the existing Kelvin Wave east of there. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/22) Positive anomalies were solid from the Maritime Continent over the West Equatorial Pacific and broad in coverage to 130W, then weakening a little reaching east into Ecuador with no breaks and anomalies 0-5 cm over that entire area with multiple imbedded pockets at 5+ cms. No negative anomalies were indicated. El Nino appears to be developing.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (7/25) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate near neutral anomalies biased cool along the immediate coast of Peru and Chile and fading slightly. An area of warm water is erupting on the oceans surface on the equator starting at the Galapagos west to 160W and building in coverage and coherence between the Galapagos to 120W the past few days and extending further south than at any point so far in this event down to 13S. A broad area of generic warming was also filling the area north of the equator from Mexico out to the dateline. The remnants of the La Nina cool pool previously south of the equator between 120W-150W and south of 5S were now gone limited to a region south of 3S between 130W to 160W.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/25): Mixed pockets of mainly cooling were along the equator from Ecuador to 120W. Temps were neutral along the coasts of Chile and Peru but warming along the coast of Central America up into mainland Mexico. Cooling previously solid off Central West Africa, mirroring what is going on off Ecuador, has faded. The thought is cooling near the Galapagos will also fade.
Hi-res Overview: (7/25) An area of weak cool water was redeveloping along Chile and Peru. Of most interest was warm water holding on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos and west from there to the dateline from 4S up to 20N and building in coherence, but still just in the mild warming category. The only cool water was in the fading remnant pocket from La Nina limited to an area south of the equator starting at 4S between 145-180W.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/26) Today's temps were rebounding solidly at -0.124 degs. That is still lower than a recent peak rising to +0.459 on 5/13. Overall temps here are steady in the -0.75 deg range.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/26) Today temps were steady at +0.274, up from +0.136 a few days ago, but that down considerably from a peak at +0.490 on 7/2. Temps were -0.266 on 6/2, -0.427 on 5/12 after having reached up to -0.254 degs on 5/1. Temps have been steadily rising since 3/27 when they were down at -1.2 degs.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (7/26) The forecast calls for a steady increase from here forward rising in early Oct to +1.25 degs and to +1.40 degs in Nov then slowly fading from there but still not falling below +1.1 by April 2019. This suggests that perhaps El Nino is to build through the Summer and Fall of 2018. Most other models are also suggesting a possible turn to weak El Nino conditions by late Fall.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-July Plume depicts temps at +0.5 degs in July and are to slowly rise from here forward, to +0.6 in August and +0.8 in October and +1.0 in Nov and holding there into Feb 2019. See chart here - link. It looks like La Nina is fading out and a weak El Nino might develop. The CFSv2 is in the high end of that pack.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (7/26): The daily index was rising today at 6.03. The 30 day average was rising today to -0.06 suggesting the Inactive Phase of the MJO was having some effect. The 90 day average was rising some too at -1.30, turning negative for the first time in a year on 6/30 suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was building in the atmosphere. This is expected for a month more before falling into steady negative territory by mid August.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (7/26) Today the index was trying to rebound at -0.66 (after falling to -1.28 on 7/17). But that is way more negative than it recently was, when it hit the highest it's been in a year on 7/2 at -0.09. This negative trend is not good news suggesting La Nina has not completely given up it's grip on equatorial precipitation yet. The supposed El Nino pattern is NOT coupled. Recent points of interest in reverse chronological order are: -1.04 on 6/5, -0.70 on 5/20, -0.60 on 5/17, -0.36 on 5/11 and -0.38 on 5/10, -0.35 on 4/26, -1.02 on 4/5, -1.13 on 3/27. The trend suggests La Nina is all but gone. This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina situations.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.10, Mar -0.51, April -0.85, May -0.61, June -0.96. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Read all the latest news and happenings on our News Page here

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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