Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.4 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 12.6 secs from 179 degrees. Water temp 80.8 (Barbers Pt), 80.1 (Pearl Harbor 233), 81.1 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were NA ft @ NA secs with swell NA ft @ NA secs from NA degrees. Water temp 77.9 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 2.1 ft @ 4.2 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 6.2 secs from 33 degrees. Water temp 79.9 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 5.9 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 5.7 secs from 258 degrees. Wind southwest 4-8 kts. Water temperature 68.2 degs, 61.0 (Harvest 071), 66.4 (Topanga 103), 60.6 (Long Beach 215), 66.9 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 68.4 (Del Mar 153), 70.5 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 0.8 ft @ 18.5 secs from 220 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 0.7 ft @ 5.5 secs from 256 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.6 ft @ 5.7 secs from 260 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.0 ft @ 13.2 secs from 196 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.0 ft @ 12.9 secs from 190 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.0 ft @ 12.9 secs from 193 degrees. Water temperature 70.7 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 3.5 ft @ 13.3 secs with southern hemi swell 1.4 ft @ 12.8 secs from 182 degrees. Wind NA (Bodega Bay 46013), NW 10-16 kts San Francisco (46026), NNW 10-12 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and W 10 (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 57.0 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 59.2 (San Francisco 46026), 60.3 (SF Bar 142), 58.5 (Half Moon Bay 1801589), 59.2 (Monterey Bay 46092) and NA (Soquel Cove S).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (7/27) in North and Central CA surf was knee high and not lined up and mushed an warbled from northwest wind. Protected breaks were up to knee high and mushed and weak and heavily textured from northwest wind. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh high or so and clean and lined up but pretty soft. In Ventura County waves were flat and clean but warbled from wind off the coast. Central Orange County had sets at up to waist high and weakly lined up and mushed and textured from a light northwest flow. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets to waist to maybe chest high and weakly lined up and soft and textured from a light northwest flow. North San Diego had sets at waist high and weakly lined up and soft and crumbled with calm winds early. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had sets at thigh high and weakly lined up and mushed and clean. The East Shore was flat and textured from light trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (7/27) Hawaii and California were getting no swell of interest. Beyond the flat spell continues for the bulk of the workweek until swell starts arriving from a small gale that developed Wed (7/23) in the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific producing 28-29 ft seas aimed briefly north at Hawaii and CA then dissipating on Thurs (6/24). A broader gale started developing over the same area on Thurs (7/24) lifting due north into Sat (7/26) with 35-37 ft seas aimed well north. Swell is focused on Hawaii. A third system is still forecast over the Central South Pacific Tues-Wed (7/30) but now with only 26 ft seas aimed due north. Beyond a gale is forecast developing under New Zealand on Thurs (7/31) with 42 ft seas aimed east. And perhaps a better pattern is to take hold beyond. At least there's some hope.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Sunday (7/27) no swell of interest was hitting our forecast area.

Tropical Update
Perhaps some weak tropical system is to form southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii on Mon (7/28) tracking east and positioned west of Oahu late Wed (7/30) likely offering no meaningful swell production potential.

Another is forecast developing south of Cabo San Lucas Thurs (7/31) lifting northwest but likely not strong enough to result in meaningful swell, if it even develops.

And Typhoon Krosha was 650 nmiles south-southeast of Central Japan tracking north with winds 70 kts. This strength to hold for 24 hours, then falling to tropical storm status late Mon (7/28) and continuing to hold together with winds 60 kts Fri (8/1) 400 nmiles southeast of Tokyo Japan tracking slowly north. Remnant energy to meander off Japan into Sun (8/3) but not generating meaningful swell relative to Hawaii.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Mon AM (7/28) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts over a shallow area nearshore for North and Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts continuous for North and Central CA. Low odds of small northwest local windswell building.
Tues AM (7/29) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon a pressure gradient develops with northwest winds 15-20 kts for North and Central CA. Small northwest windswell likely.
Wed AM (7/30) northwest winds to be 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and 15 kts elsewhere in North CA and 15+ kts for all of Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20+ kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. Windswell building.
Thurs AM (7/31) northwest winds to be 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and 15-20 kts for the rest of North and all of Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20+ kts for Cape Mendocino and 15 kts for the rest of North Ca and all of Central CA. Northwest windswell building some.
Fri AM (8/1) northwest winds to be 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and much of the rest of North CA and 10-15 kts nearshore for Central CA early. No real change in the afternoon. Northwest windswell holding.
Sat AM (8/2) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20 kts for North and Central CA. Windswell holding.
Sun AM (8/3) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North and Central CA but focused more south of Monterey Bay. Northwest windswell holding.

Sierra Hikers Temperature Forecast (Intersection of the Pacific Crest Trail and Tioga Pass Road at 8,700 ft): Temps building some Sun (7/26) at 50-60 degrees holding through Fri (8/1) then 55-65 degrees steady through the end of the model run on Tues (8/5).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (7/27) the jet was very weak in the Southeast Pacific but building and split under New Zealand starting to form a trough southeast of New Zealand being fed by 130 kts winds lifting northeast supporting gale formation. Over the next 72 hours starting Mon (7/28) that trough is to be lifting northeast being fed by up to 120-130 kt winds supporting gael formation into Wed AM (7/30) but with the bulk of the wind energy generating a ridge pushing east from under New Zealand tracking east down on the 68S latitude line offering nothing other than the trough on it's leading edge. That ridge is to push east to the Southeast Pacific on Tues (7/29) with the jet then completely split and offering no support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (8/1) 2 weak troughs are to develop in the southerly branch of the jet, one over the Southeast Pacific being fed by 130 kt winds and another under New Zealand being fed by 120-130 kts winds offering some support for gale development. But by late Sat (8/2) the New Zealand trough is to be gone pushing over the Ross Ice Shelf while the trough over the far Southeast Pacific is to push well east of the Southern CA swell window targeting Patagonia.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (7/27) no swell of interest was hitting California or Hawaii.

Over the next 72 hours swell from a primer gale previously over Central South Pacific is radiating north (see Primer Gale below). And swell from another Central South Pacific Gale is radiating north targeting Hawaii well with sideband energy towards California (see Broader Central South Pacific Gale below). And another gael is forecast developing over the Southeast Pacific (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Primer Gale
On Wed AM (7/23) a tiny gale developed over the Central South Pacific producing 40-45 kt south winds with seas building from 27 ft at 49.75S 159.75W aimed due north. The gale was fading in the evening while lifting north with south winds fading from 35+ kts with seas 28-29 ft over a tiny area at 45.5S 161W aimed north. On Thurs AM (7/24) fetch was fading from 35 kts from the south with seas fading from 25 ft over a tiny area at 42.5S 159W aimed north. Fetch and seas were gone after that. Maybe small swell to track towards Hawaii and California.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival late on Tues (7/29) building to 1.2 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell building on Wed (7/30) reaching 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell holding on Thurs (7/31) at 2.1 ft @ 14 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft) while being overrun by new swell. Swell Direction: 188 degrees

South California: Expect swell arrival late on Thurs (7/31) building to 1.0 ft @ 17 secs (1.5 ft). Swell building on Fri (8/1) to 1.3 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell peaking Sat (8/2) at 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs late AM (2.0 ft). Swell being overrun by new swell after that. Swell Direction: 210 moving to 205 degrees

North California: Expect swell arrival late on Thurs (7/31) building to 1.0 ft @ 17 secs (1.5 ft). Swell building later on Fri (8/1) to 1.2 ft @ 16 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell peaking Sat (8/2) at 1.3 ft @ 15 secs late AM (2.0 ft). Swell being overrun by new swell after that. Swell Direction: 210 moving to 205 degrees

Broader Central South Pacific Gale
Another gale started developing southeast of New Zealand on Thurs AM (7/24) with 50-55 kt south winds and seas 33 ft over a small area at 55.75S 179.5E starting to lift northeast. In the evening the storm was tracking east-northeast with 50-55 kt south winds building over a reasonable sized area and seas building from 34 ft at 52.5S 169.25W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (7/25) south winds built in coverage at 45 kts lifting north with seas 37 ft at 48.25S 165W aimed north. In the evening the gale was fading while lifting north targeting Hawaii well with a solid area of 40 kt south winds and seas 33 ft at 44.25S 163.25W aimed north-northeast. On Sat AM (7/26) south winds were dissipating from 35+ kts with seas fading from 30 ft at 41.25S 166.25W aimed north. In the evening south winds held at 35 kts lifting north with seas fading from 25 ft at 34.5S 163W aimed north. On Sun AM (7/27) no fetch or seas of interest remained. Swell is tracking north towards primarily Hawaii.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (7/31) building to 2.2 ft @ 17 secs later (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell peaks on Fri (8/1) at 2.6 ft @ 15-16 secs around noon (4.0 ft). Swell fading Sat (8/2) fading from 2.5 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell fading Sun (8/3) from 2.0 ft @ 13 secs early (2.5 ft).

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (8/2) building to 1.1 ft @ 18 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell building Sun (8/3) to 1.5 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (8/4) from 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell fading Tues (8/5) from 1.5 ft @ 14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles fading on Wed (8/6) from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 213 degrees moving to 207 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (8/2) building to 1.1 ft @ 18-19 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell building Sun (8/3) to 1.5 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (8/4) from 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Tues (8/5) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles fading on Wed (8/6) from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 212 degrees moving to 207 degrees

Southeast Pacific Gale
On Mon AM (7/28) a small gale is to be building in the deep Central South Pacific with south winds 40+ kts aimed north with seas building. In the evening south winds to be 40 kts over a developing area with seas 25 ft at 48.5S 152W aimed north. Fetch is to be building Tues AM (7/29) at 35-40 kts over a solid area aimed north and northeast with seas 25 ft at 41S 151W aimed north and northeast. In the evening south winds start fading at 35 kts over a shrinking area positioned well north and aimed north with seas 24 ft over a fragmented area at 48.5S 138W. Fetch starts fading Wed AM (7/30) while lifting north from 35-40 kts with seas 30 ft up at 37.75S 139.5W aimed north. Fetch gone in the evening. The extreme northward push of this system should minimize swell decay targeting a swath from Hawaii to California.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours starting late Thurs (7/31) a storm is forecast developing under New Zealand with 50 kts southwest winds and seas 37 ft at 57.25S 171.75E aimed east. On Fri AM (8/1) 55 kt west winds are forecast with seas building to 41 ft at 59.5S 172.75W aimed east. Fetch fading from 50 kts in the evening with seas 42 ft at 59.75S 160.75W aimed east. Fetch impacting Antarctic Ice beyond offering nothing. Something to monitor.

La Nina Trying to Return
West Anomalies and Lower Pressure Setting Up over the West Pacific - but Cool Water Erupting in NINO3.4
In April 2025 weakly warm water surged east filling the Equatorial West Pacific and built into the East Equatorial Pacific. A low pressure bias was moving fast into the West Pacific and forecast reaching 150E in the next month beyond ushering in a split ENSO pattern, with El Nino like conditions in the west and La Nina like conditions in the east. The atmosphere is still under momentum of a weak La Nina while the Ocean was trying to transition to ENSO neutral if not weak El Nino (in the west). But the recent emergence of the cool pool in late July suggest La Nina is returning.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but by late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina, it seemed La Nina would not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025, which it did. La Nina was fading fast in the ocean by April 2025 but the effects on the atmosphere will take 3 months to materialize. So for the Summer of 2025 we should be moving from a weak Modoki La Nina pattern atmospherically to a neutral ENSO pattern by July. The PDO also appears to be trending towards neutral after a long and deep run negative. The net result is a trend towards ENSO neutral as Summer progresses. The big question is will a neutral ENSO set up an atmosphere with no momentum, or will the push from La Nina to neutral result in net momentum supportive of storm development. At least for the moment (4/27/25), the southern hemi is incredibly productive for the time of year, suggesting there is good momentum in the atmosphere. We suspect some sort of near 'normal' summertime swell production potential will play out - not negatively influenced ny La Nina but not enhanced by a developing El Nino either. Just totally normal, if such a thing is even possible.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/26) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were moderate east over the East Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and modest over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (7/27) Today modest to moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA. Modest to moderate east anomalies are to continue holding filling the entirety of the KWGA through the end of the model run on 8/12 and building in coverage. This is not as hoped for and is a big downgrade. .

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (7/26) Currently a very weak fractured Active MJO (wet air) was filling the KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Active Phase gone on day 5 of the model run with a building Inactive MJO (dry air) setting up over the West KWGA on day 10 and then turning firmly Inactive on day 15 of the model run. The Dynamic model indicates the same thing initially but with the Inactive Phase building to only weak status on days 10 and 15 of the model run. This is a big downgrade and along with the GFS model suggests a far weaker pattern than projected even 9 days ago.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (7/27) - The models depict the Active Phase was modest over the East Pacific today. The statistic model has it collapsing while tracking over Africa and to the far West Indian Ocean 15 days out. The dynamic model indicates the same thing but with the Inactive Phase very weak 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (7/27) This model depicts a weak to modest Active Phase (wet air) stationary over the Central Maritime Continent. The forecast has it moving into the West KWGA 8/1 then tracking slowly east over the KWGA through 8/16. After that a weak Inactive Phase (dry air) is to set up over the KWGA 8/21 filling it through the last day of the model run on 9/5 while tracking east. But this model has been teasing eastward movement of substantial Active Phase for 3 months now with none of that actually occurring.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/26) Today modest east anomalies were filling the KWGA from 120E and points east of there with west anomalies confined over the Maritime Continent. The forecast has weak east anomalies holding and filling the KWGA through the end of the model run. if anything a weak Inactive contour is to set up at 150E 8/13-8/20.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/27) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today 2 Active MJO contours were near their peak over the West Pacific with west anomalies filling the West Pacific reaching east to the dateline with solid east anomalies east of the dateline. The Active Contour is to hold through 8/13 with neutral to weak west anomalies filling the KWGA. 2 Inactive contours are to set up 8/8 in the west reaching the dateline 8/16 holding through 8/30 with neutral to weak east anomalies filling the KWGA. On 8/23 another Active Phase develops over the West KWGA building with 3 contours filling the KWGA and holding in some capacity through the end of the model run on 10/24 with west anomalies building to modest status west of 155E holding unchanged through the end of the model run and east anomalies are to hold east if that point. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (started 4/28/24) with one contour and started slowly easing east into the West Pacific on 6/30, then starting moving more aggressively east 7/11 from 125E reaching 145E 7/29 and is to push to 150E 8/6 then holding there through the end of the model run. The high pressure bias was east of the dateline with 1 contour today. That contour is collapsing east and is to reach 140W 8/15 then returning to 165E late Sept and holding there beyond. This suggests that both the high and low pressure bias's are to be tracking east with the dividing line at 160E starting 8/20 and that dividing line holding from there forward with the low pressure bias and west anomalies filling 50% of the KWGA beyond.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: The array is now fully operational east of 160E.
Today (7/27) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was backtracking from 180W to 179E. The 28 deg isotherm line has backtracked from 163W to 165W but is steady there. The 24 degree isotherm has retracted from Ecuador at 12 meters deep now to surfacing at 102W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and the far East Pacific but with a break between 130W to 150W. And cold anomalies down to -6 degrees are building at depth centered at 155W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/22 indicates neutral anomalies were filling the upper thermocline (75 meters or higher) and warm anomalies in a thin stream pushing across the deep thermocline (100-150m down) from the dateline to Ecuador and erupting in pockets east of the Galapagos. But the density of those warm anomalies was thinning fast an likely to be gone in the next Pentad (5 day period). Cool anomalies were building below at 140W though not breaking through like the TAO data suggests. Warm anomalies were filling the deep West Pacific with weak warm anomalies filling the deep East Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/22) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were neutral 2 degrees north and south of the equator but -5 to -10 cms on the equator between 115W-160W and growing. Temps were weakly positive in the east from 110W to Ecuador and somewhat stronger positive in the west from 170E and points west of there. Negative anomalies at up to -15 cms were 5 degrees north of the equator at 135W and -20 cms south of the equator at 7S south 130W. It appears the cool pool is trying to rebuild over the equator. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (7/22) indicates the cool pool in the east dissipated on 4/12 while warm anomalies built over the equatorial Pacific. But on 7/15 cool anomalies started rebuilding and are now depicted filling the area from 160W to 125W. In 2 weeks we went from ENSO neutral from what now looks like a developing La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (7/26) The latest images depict weakly warming water temps over the West and East Equatorial Pacific with a clear cool pool developing between 110W-180W (NINO3.4). Cool anomalies were also streaming off the California coast falling southwest reaching to 15N (just south of Hawaii) then dissipating outlining the normal Springtime Gulf of Alaska high pressure system and looking less defined as weeks past. This looks like ENSO Neutral trending towards La Nina. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were limited west of 160E with cooler waters from 165E and points east of there nearly to Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/26): Temps were cooling pretty consistently from Ecuador to 150W.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/27) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were steady at -0.137, up at +0.23 degs 7/16 falling to -0.080 9 days earlier (7/12) after inching up at +0.209 7/8 after being down as low as -0.2 (6/25), falling from +0.31 on 6/15, down at -0.087 6/12, +0.38 on 6/8, and previously up to +0.426 degs (5/29).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/27) Today's temps continued falling to -0.625 after being steady at -0.065 7/9 and holding there since 7/4 after being steady at -0.136 since 6/23 previously up in a peak at -0.173 (6/4) and had been falling 5/8-5/16 from 0.00 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were falling at -0.2 on July 16. Previously temps were +0.1 (7/9), 0.0 (7/2), +0.1 (6/25), +0.2 (6/18), 0.0 (6/4 & 6/11), -0.1 (5/28), -0.2 (5/21), -0.1 degs (5/14), +0.1 (5/17), -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.06 June, -0.13 May, -0.14 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-July.
Forecast (7/25) - Temps started fading in mid-July falling in Nov down to -0.80, then rising back to neutral in March 2026. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same with temps falling to -0.75 degs. It looks like we're heading back into La Nina in the Fall of '25, turning neutral in late Spring 2026.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 18, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are at -0.158. Temps to slowly fall to -0.345 in Oct, then rising some from there. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.392 OND then rising some to +0.174 at the end of the model run on MAM. The Statistic model suggests temps falling to -0.311 NDJ rising to -0.170 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are ENSO neutral now and forecast to hold there into Winter 25-26 biased cool.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (7/27) the Daily Index was positive at +15.76 and effectively positive the last month.
The 30 day average was rising at +4.98 and has been generally rising the last month.
The 90 day average was rising some at +2.95 and weakly on the high side of ENSO neutral.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was falling in June (2025) at -2.51, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.