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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Sunday, July 28, 2019 1:56 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
1.2 - California & 1.6 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 7/29 thru Sun 8/4

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Weak S. Hemi Swell Fading in CA
Another Small Swell Pushing Towards CA

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Sunday, July 28, 2019 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/ Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 3.1 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 13.1 secs from 168 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 6.2 secs from 45 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 12.8 secs from 177 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 70.5 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.5 ft @ 7.8 secs from 305 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.5 ft @ 13.4 secs from 205 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 2.3 ft @ 14.7 secs from 211 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.7 ft @ 13.3 secs from 190 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 10.3 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 7.3 ft @ 8.3 secs from 317 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was northwest at 18-21 kts. Water temp 53.8 degs (013) and 58.6 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (7/28) in North and Central CA locally generated northwest windswell was producing waves at chest high and weak and mushed and heavily textured from south winds. Protected breaks were chest high and clean but soft and a little warbled and weak. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to maybe chest high on the rare sets and clean and rideable but inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high on the sets and clean and soft and warbled and fogged in. In North Orange Co background southern hemi swell was still occasionally showing producing waves at waist to chest high and clean and lined up but with some intermixed lump. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks had limited southern hemi swell with set waves at waist to shoulder high and clean and somewhat lined up but soft and inconsistent with intermixed lump. North San Diego had surf at waist high or so on the sets and soft and weak but clean though pretty formless. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was small with sets up to waist high and clean and soft and not very lined up. The East Shore was getting no real east windswell with waves knee to thigh high and nearly chopped from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (7/28) in California limited sideband background southern swell was pushing into exposed breaks from a gale previously in the far Southeast Pacific that produced up to 25 ft seas aimed northeast. Another similar swell is tracking northeast from a gale that formed again in the far Southeast Pacific on Wed-Thurs (7/25) with 25-28 ft seas aimed northeast. And yet another small swell might be generated from a gale tracking east-northeast from a point southeast of New Zealand Sun-Tues (7/3) producing up to 38 ft seas but only over a tiny area.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast other than local windswell (see below).

Windswell Outlook
On Sunday (7/28) the usual summer time pressure gradient is to build some as compared to days past along all of North and Central CA with north winds 20-25 kts along the North CA coast and strongest off Pt Reyes and 20 kts off the Central CA coast offering building windswell for all locations there. East winds to be 15 kts in pockets by late afternoon from California the whole way over the Hawaiian Islands and beyond making for improving odds for east windswell production along exposed east facing shores. Monday (7/29) north winds to be 20-25 kts over all of North and Central CA again focused on Pt Arena to Pt Reyes making for moderate but raw northwest windswell. East trades to hold decently from California over Hawaii at 15 kts in broad pockets continuing to produce limited east windswell along east facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands and starting to be enhanced by a possible tropical system 1200 nmiles southeast of Hawaii. Tuesday (7/30) north winds to hold coverage but fade at 20+ kts over all of North and Central nearshore waters producing modest northwest raw local windswell. Trades to be 15 kts solid from 900 nmiles east of Hawaii over the Islands making for building east windswell along exposed east facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands enhanced by a possible tropical system 900 nmiles east-southeast of Hawaii. Wednesday (7/31) the gradient is to be fading with northwest winds 15+ kts along the North and Central CA coast making for junky short period jumbled windswell. Trades to continue at 15+ kts solid up to 1500 nmiles east of the Hawaiian Islands making for raw windswell along exposed east facing shores. A possible tropical system is to be 450 nmiles southeast of Hawaii possibly adding more energy to the mix and another tropical system to possibly be 1700 nmiles out.

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
Tropical Storm Erick was 1400 nmiles south-southwest of Pt Conception tracking west with winds 35 kts offering no swell production potential relative to CA. Erick is to slowly build while tracking west reaching hurricane strength on Mon (7/29) and building with winds to 85 kts on Wed (7/31) 600 nmiles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. A slow fade to follow with the storm barely hurricane status 400 nmiles southeast of the Big Island with winds 65 kts. The storm to fade from there.

The GFS model suggests another tropical system developing behind Erick on Wed (7/31).

California Nearshore Forecast
On Sunday (7/28) north winds to build in coverage at 20-25 kts for all of North CA and northwest winds 10-15 kts for Central CA nearshore waters. Monday (7/29) north winds to become more established over all of North and Central CA nearshore waters at 20+ kts. Tuesday (7/30) north winds to continue at 20 kts over all of North and Central CA nearshore waters. On Wed (7/31) north winds are to be 15-20 kts along all of North and Central CA. On Thurs (8/1) winds to be fading but still 15 kts over all of North and Central CA nearshore waters. Fri (8/2) more of the same is forecast and up to 20 kts over Pt Conception. No change on Sat (8/3). Sun (8/4) north winds to be 15-20 kts over North CA and 10 kts nearshore for Central CA.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (7/28) a well split jetstream flow was still in-place with a weak ridge pushing south under New Zealand down to 60S at 100 kts almost starting to lift northeast a bit east of there and possibly feeding some potential for gale development. East of there the jet is to be weak starting over the Central South Pacific offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the southern branch of the jet is to be ridging south over Antarctic Ice under New Zealand on Sunday (7/29) but lifting northeast over the Central South Pacific with winds at 100 kts offering continued support for weak gale development, and tracking east fast over the Southeast Pacific on Tues (7/30) with winds fading to 90 kts still offering support for gale development then weakening on Wed (7/31). But back to the west just southeast of New Zealand on Wed (7/31) a ridge is to be building pushing down to 70S over the Ross Ice Shelf suppressing gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting Thursday (8/1) the ridge is to be sweeping east over the Southeast Pacific actively suppressing support for gale development with no change forecast into Sat (8/3). There's some indication the ridge could start weakening by Sun (8/4) but there's no sign of any building trough meaning no real support for gale development.

Surface Analysis  
Weak swell is hitting California originating from a gale previously in the far Southeast Pacific (see Weak Southeast Pacific Gale below). And swell from another weak gale that developed in the far Southeast Pacific is radiating northeast (see Another Weak Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a weak gale is forecast tracking east under New Zealand starting Sun AM (7/28) with 45 ft west winds and seas building to 38 ft over a small area at 61S 180W. In the evening the gale is to lift northeast with 45 kt southwest winds and seas 37 ft at 59.5S 168W aimed east-northeast. The gale is to continue lifting east-northeast on Monday AM (7/29) while moving over the Central South Pacific with a fairly solid area of 35-40 kts southwest winds and seas fading from 31 ft at 60S 155W aimed east-northeast. In the evening a broad area of 35 kt southwest winds are to be consolidating with 29 ft seas at 56.5S 148W. On Tues AM (7/30) south winds to be 30-35 kts aimed north with seas 29 ft at 54S 138W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30 kts with seas fading from 27 ft at 50S 132W aimed north-northeast. The gale to dissipate after that. Something to monitor.

 

Weak Southeast Pacific Gale
A weak gale developed in the far Southeast Pacific on Mon PM (7/15) with 35-40 kts south winds and seas building from 22 ft at 55S 130W aimed north. On Wed AM (7/17) south winds continued at 30-35 kts over a broad area aimed northeast with seas building to 25 ft at 50S 120W targeting Southern CA and down into South America. Fetch was building in the evening with 40 kt south winds in the Southeast Pacific aimed well north with 25 ft seas at 50S 117W aimed northeast providing potential for swell pushing north towards California. On Wed AM (7/17) south fetch continued at 35-40 kts on the very edge of the Southern Ca swell window aimed north with 24 ft seas at 52S 127W aimed north. In the evening fetch faded from 30 kts aimed north with a tiny area of 26 ft seas at 52S 117W aimed north. Fetch dissipated from there. Small south swell is radiating north.

Southern CA: Swell rebuilding some on Sun (7/27) at 2.4 ft @ 14 secs (4.0 ft). Swell fading fast on Mon (7/28) from 2.0 ft @ 13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 188 degrees

North CA: Swell rebuilding some on Sun (7/27) at 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading fast on Mon (7/28) from 2.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees

 

Another Weak Southeast Pacific Gale
Another weak gale developed in the far Southeast Pacific on Wed AM (7/24) producing 35 kt southeast winds over a solid area aimed northeast with seas building to 23 ft at 58S 126W aimed northeast. Fetch was pushing east in the evening with southwest winds 30-35 kts on the edge of Southern CA swell window with seas 23 ft at 59S 120W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (7/25) secondary southwest fetch was holding at 35-40 kts on the edge of the SCal swell window with 26-28 ft seas at 58S 119W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 35 kts with seas fading from 24 ft at 59S 117W aimed northeast. There is low odds of any meaningful swell possibly radiating into the Southern CA swell window.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (8/3) at 1.6 ft @ 15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell holding on Thurs (8/4) at 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 186 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (8/4) building to 1.4 ft @ 16 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 182 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

Windswell Outlook
Thursday (8/1) low pressure is to be moving towards the Pacific Northwest from the Gulf of Alaska reducing northwest winds to 15 kts over a shallow area along the North and Central CA coast making for minimal junky warbled local short period windswell at best. Trades for Hawaii to continue at 15+ kts solid up to 1500 nmiles east of the Islands making for steady east windswell and enhanced by 2 tropical systems, one 200 nmiles southeast of the Big Island and the stronger one theoretically 1200 nmiles east-southeast of Hawaii. Friday (8/2) the low is to be pushing into the Pacific Northwest with northwest winds barely 15 kts along the coast of North and Central CA not really generating any meaningful windswell. But for Hawaii trades are to be 15 kt solid up to 1200 nmiles east of the Islands making for solid windswell mixed with tropical swell from one system fading south of Hawaii and a stronger one 1,000 nmiles east-southeast of Hawaii. On Sat (8/3) the gradient is to try and build slightly with 15 kts north winds over North CA and up to 25 kts over Pt Conception again making for junky windswell in North CA and marginally rideable windswell for Central CA. Trades to be fading for Hawaii but fetch from a possible tropical system to be building while the system lifts northeast. Sunday (8/4) north winds to be building to 20 kts along the North and just off the Central CA coast making for rideable limited windswell. Possible tropical swell building for Hawaii with the storm 500 nmiles east-southeast of the Big Island.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Low Pressure Bias Now To Hold in KWGA

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and did not stop, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June warm water was fading and the outlook did not favor El Nino come Fall.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2019 = 5.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that weak borderline El Nino condition continue, and assuming a weak ocean-atmospheric coupling holds and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 hold in the +0.8 deg range, there is good probability for slightly enhanced storm production in the South Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere Summer time months. There is slightly increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in slightly increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period. This should be significantly better than the past 2 Summer seasons.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/27) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific shrinking in coverage but still present over the Central Pacific with east winds starting to show decently over portions of the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific but slightly easterly over the Central Pacific then weak westerly over the core of the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (7/28) a neutral anomaly pattern was over the KWGA maybe trending slightly towards easterly anomalies over the dateline. The forecast is for neutral anomalies holding over the KWGA through the end of the model run on 8/3. A very weak Inactive Phase of the MJO appears to be over the KWGA over the next 7 days.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (7/27) A neutral MJO pattern was indicated filling the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates a weak Active Phase is to develop in the West Pacific on day 5 building into day 10 and turning solidly Active at day 15. The dynamic model indicates a dead neutral pattern is to take hold in the KWGA at day 5 and remain steady through day 10 turning very weak Inactive at day 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (7/28) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was over the West Maritime Continent and very weak and it is to move to the West Pacific at day 15 and still very weak. The GEFS model suggests the same thing initially but with the Active Phase not moving east at all, and holding in the Maritime Continent if not retrograding to the Indian Ocean.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (7/26) This model depicts a weak Inactive Phase over the East Pacific and a weak Active MJO Phase over the West Pacific. The forecast has the Inactive Phase of the MJO pushing into Central America on 8/5 while the Active Phase pushes east while fading reaching weakly into Central America 8/25. A weak Inactive Phase is to develop in the far West Pacific on 8/20 and it is to track east moving into the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 9/4. A weak Active Phase of the MJO is to be building in the West Pacific at that time too.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/27) This model depicts no MJO signal present in the Pacific today with weak to modest west anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast has weak to modest west anomalies holding in the KWGA from today through the end of the model run on 8/24. Support for gale development to continue but generally weak.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/28) This model depicts a very weak Inactive MJO over the KWGA today but with weak west anomalies mainly over the dateline. The Inactive Phase is to hold through 9/3 but with weak west anomalies mainly on the dateline and neutral anomalies over the far West KWGA. After that a weak Active Phase is forecast moving over the KWGA on 9/6 holding through 10/8 with weak to modest west anomalies filling the entirety of the KWGA. A weak Inactive MJO pattern is to develop in the KWGA on 10/8 through the end of the model run on 10/25 but with weak west anomalies holding filling the KWGA. The low pass filter changed on 7/25 and is only building today with a low pressure bias with 1 contour line in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. This single remaining contour line is to hold till 8/29 then fade some only to start rebuilding in coverage on 9/30 and filling the KWGA till the end of the model run on 10/25. If this pattern holds over the next few weeks, this would constitute a significant upgrade. There is currently no sign of a high pressure bias building over the dateline (in the Pacific) yet. This model indicates that a weak El Nino pattern is to fade in late August and maybe rebuild or maybe not. Basically we are moving from a pattern biased towards El Nino to one biased towards ENSO neutral.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/28) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs over a steady area reaching east to 175W while the 29 deg isotherm was steady at 164W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding from 150W to 154W today. The 24 deg isotherm previously pushed into Ecuador at 30 meters down, retrograded to 105W, then again pushed into Ecuador down 20 meters on 6/25, but retrograded again on 7/11 from 107W to 120W today. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire subsurface Pacific at +1 degs from the surface to 150 meters down (deepest on the dateline). A pocket of +2 deg anomalies were developing under the dateline today (possible Kelvin Wave #5). But in the East Pacific warn anomalies were almost gone today and barely at 1 degree in one small pocket at 120W and looking to totally collapse in the far East equatorial Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/12 indicates warm water from Westerly Wind Burst #5 has formed a small pocket of warm water under the Central equatorial Pacific from 165E to 125W at +1.0 degs above normal, and shrinking in coverage and shallow reaching down only 90 meters. A small pocket of cool water was drawing up from depth to nearly the surface from 150W to Ecuador. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/12) A small pocket of positive anomalies were building under the dateline at +5 cms from 170E to 145W. Otherwise no positive anomalies are indicated over the equatorial Pacific with neutral anomalies over the bulk of the equator and a small area of negative anomalies at -5 cms was over the Galapagos.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (7/27) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate modest warm anomalies are weakly present north and south of the equator from Central America west to the dateline but with a stream of cool waters along the coast of Chile up to Peru then streaming west along the equator off Ecuador over the Galapagos and out to 130W suggestive of La Nina. And the warm anomalies south of the equator were fading in coverage holding over a thing stream at 10S. At this time there is only weak indications of the remnants of El Nino remaining off the equator but with likely signs of La Nina developing directly on the equator in the East Pacific.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/27): A clear cooling trend/stream was in-place developing pushing from off Ecuador west to 140W on the equator. Cool pockets were over that area interspersed with a few tiny pockets of warming water, but the cool anomalies were clearly in control. A weaker but still present stream of cool water was still pushing west off Africa on the equator. In general the trend towards a cooler pattern in the equatorial Pacific is becoming apparent.
Hi-res Overview: (7/27) A clear La Nina cool stream was pushing west off Ecuador to 140W. Warmer than normal water was straddling the equator from the remnants of El Nino, from Ecuador west over the Galapagos 20 degrees north of the equator and only over a thin stream on 10S continuing west of there to the dateline. But that unmistakable stream of cool water was running west on the equator from just off the Peruvian Coast and then solidly from the Galapagos west to 135W indicative of La Nina. And warm temps south of the equator from Peru west to 140W were quickly fading to nearly neutral. El Nino appears to be in retreat and La Nina appears to be developing.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/28) Today's temps were steady today at -0.644 and have been pretty consistently negative since June 1.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(7/25) Today temps were falling slightly today at +0.175 today. The trend has been generally downward since mid-June.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (7/28) The model indicates a cooling trend has set up with temps falling from +0.50 degs in mid-June and forecast falling to 0.0 degs by late July and down to -0.25 degs Oct 1 then falling through Dec to -0.60 degrees. On Jan 1 2020 temps are to start rebuilding reaching +0.05 degs by April 1 but that seems highly unlikely. Some form of La Nina is likely coming.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.60 degs in June, and are to hold in the +0.70 range into November, then fading slightly to +0.65 in February 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (7/26): The daily index was positive today at -5.79, mostly negative the last 39 days. The 30 day average was rising at -10.07. The 90 day average was steady at -8.26, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern biased towards El Nino (for now).
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (April) +0.34, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. It is approaching El Nino territory but still indicted mostly ENSO neutral conditions.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (7/28):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_xo61BTAtbo&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

Surfer -Shaper Glen Kennedy passed away earlier this month. His memorial paddle out is set for Sunday, July 28th at First Point Malibu at 10 AM. Come celebrate Glen's life.

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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