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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Monday, July 30, 2018 12:12 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
1.7 - California & 1.9 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 7/30 thru Sun 8/5

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

South Pacific Asleep for Now
Jetstream Offering Hope Longer Term

BUOY ROUNDUP

Next Forecast Update: Tuesday (8/7)

On Monday, July 30, 2018 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 10.0 secs from 176 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.7 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 12.7 secs from 180 degrees. Wind at the buoy was east at 4-10 kts. Water temperature 71.4 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 0.8 ft @ 13.1 secs from 177 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.1 ft @ 13.7 secs from 197 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.3 secs from 210 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.4 secs from 178 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.5 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 5.2 ft @ 7.9 secs from 322 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 16-18 kts. Water temp 55.9 degs.

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Monday (7/30) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing surf in the thigh to waist high range and heavily warbled if not chopped from northwest wind early. Protected breaks were waist high and soft but reasonably clean and rideable. At Santa Cruz surf was flat to knee high and clean and foggy. In Southern California/Ventura surf was flat and clean. In North Orange Co waves were occasionally thigh to waist high on the sets and weak but clean early. South Orange Country's best breaks were getting small surf with waves to maybe chest high on the bigger sets and lightly textured from north wind. In North San Diego surf was thigh high on the sets and clean and soft. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was flat and clean. The East Shore was getting tiny east windswell at thigh high and heavily textured from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Monday (7/30) no swell of interest was in the water, including windswell in either Hawaii or California. A tiny gale developed just east of New Zealand on Fri (7/27) with 32 ft seas aimed northeast and a stronger one developed in the deep Southeast Pacific on the edge of the Southern CA swell window with 34 ft seas aimed east. But no swell of interest is expected to result for our forecast area. A small cutoff gale is forecast on Wed (8/1) producing 30 ft seas over a tiny area in the upper latitudes of the Central South Pacific aimed north. And a gale is now forecast developing in the deep Central Pacific lifting north Fri-Sun (8/4) producing 32 ft seas aimed northeast. This would be a step in the right direction if it were to occur. Otherwise windswell remains the best option.

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Monday AM (7/30) no swell of interest was in the water nor being generated in the North Pacific other than local windswell.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast other than windswell.

Windswell Forecast
California: On Monday (7/30) a steady northerly flow at 15 kts was along the North and Central CA coast generated by high pressure at 1032 mbs centered in the Gulf of Alaska but not really ridging east much resulting in tiny short period junky windswell at exposed breaks. Tuesday (7/31) no real change is forecast but with north wind building to 20 kt in some pockets with small junky north windswell the expected outcome. On Wed (8/1) the pressure gradient is to get marginally better defined over North and Central CA with north winds mostly 20 kts nearshore and slightly larger but still raw and ill defined windswell is to result. And by Thurs (8/2) north winds to build to 25+ kts over North CA in the afternoon and 20 kts over all of Central CA offering odds for larger windswell but still poor local conditions. See QuikCAST's for details.

Hawaii: On Monday (7/30) high pressure at 1032 mbs was in the Central Gulf of Alaska 1300 nmiles north-northeast of Hawaii generating a decent easterly flow continuous streaming from California over Hawaii at 15 kts d and being enhanced some by a tropical wave about 500 east-southeast of the Big Island. Decent odds for modest east windswell along east facing shores. More of the same is forecast on Tues (7/31) with a solid fetch of 15+ kt east winds covering the area between California and Hawaii while the tropical system fades 300 nmiles east of the Big Island. More windswell production expected. More of the same is forecast on Wed (8/1) with east winds 15 kts extending from California over the Islands driven by high pressure 1032 mbs 1200 nmiles north of Hawaii. Increased windswell size is expected. Thurs (8/2) no change is forecast with a solid fetch of 15 kt easterly winds continues from California over Hawaii with decent short period east windswell expected to result. See QuikCAST's for details.

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical system are being monitored and none are forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Monday (7/30) north winds were holding at 15 kts over all of North and Central CA nearshore waters. North winds are to build some on Tues (7/31) at 15-20 kts over all of North and Central CA. Wednesday (8/1) north winds are forecast at 15 kts for Central CA and 20 kts over North CA waters building Thurs (8/2) at up to 25 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for all of Central CA and holding Fri (8/3). Sat (8/4) 20 kt north winds are forecast for all nearshore waters of North and Central CA with mixed pockets to 25 kts. Sunday (8/5) north winds to hold at 20 kts for all of North and Central CA fading Mon (7/30) at 15-20 kts.

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Monday AM (7/30) the southern branch of the jetstream was running zonal (west to east) down at 65S and very weak effectively over the northern edge of Antarctic Ice with no troughs indicated offering no support for gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere. Over the next 72 hours through Fri (8/3) this pattern is to become enhanced with a ridge pushing southeast under New Zealand later Tues (7/31) then sweeping east reaching the far Southeast Pacific with the jet displaced south now to 72S and totally over Antarctic Ice offering no support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (8/3) a trough is now forecast starting to form over the deep Central South Pacific with the jet lifting north being fed by 110 kts winds pushing up to 42S later Sat (8/4) offering decent support for gale development. Something to monitor. That trough is to be reinforced on Sun (8/5) by more winds to 140 kt lifting northeast over the same area again offering some support for gale formation in lower levels of the atmosphere while easing east into the Southeast Pacific (but still in the CA swell window) on Mon (8/6). Decent support for gale development is possible.

Surface Analysis  
On Saturday (7/28) no meaningful swell was being generated and none was in the ocean generated from previous weather systems. The South Pacific is asleep. Two systems did develop (see Tiny New Zealand Gale below and Southeast Pacific Gale below) but not meaningful swell is to result.

Over the next 72 hours no other swell producing weather systems are forecast.

A tiny gale is forecast developing in the Central South Pacific on Tues PM (7/31) with 40-45 kts south winds aimed north and seas building from 28 ft over a tiny area at 38.5W 156.5W. South winds to continue at 40 kts on Wed AM (8/1) with seas to 30 ft over tiny area at 35S 151W. South fetch is to fade in the evening from 35 kts with seas fading from 25 ft at 35S 148W aimed north. If this system were to form decent swell would result for Tahiti. But given the tiny fetch size only limited swell to result for Hawaii and even less for California. Still, it's something to monitor.

 

Tiny New Zealand Gale
A tiny cutoff gale did develop on Thurs PM (7/26) 450 nmiles east of New Zealand with 40 kt southwest winds and seas building from 28 ft over a tiny area at 42S 168W. On Fri (7/28) that tiny gale cutoff from the main energy of the jetstream built some with west winds to 45 kts producing seas of 30 ft at 44S 168W aimed mostly east. Fetch held in the evening at 45 kts from the west with seas 32 ft at 43S 160W. This system is to be gone by Sat AM (7/28). Small swell for Tahiti is possible but nothing is expected up into California or Hawaii.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival later on Wed (8/2) pushing 1.0 ft @ 16 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell continues on Thurs (8/3) at 1.0 ft @ 14 secs (1.0 ft). Swell fades from there. Swell Direction: 190 degrees


Southeast Pacific Gale

Also on Fri AM (7/27) a storm formed in the deep Southeast Pacific with 50 kt southwest winds pushing northeast just barely clear of Antarctic Ice generating 29 ft seas over a tiny area at 61S 131W. In the evening southwest winds were 45 kts aimed northeast with seas 34 ft at 58.5S 115W and moving outside the Southeast CA swell window. This system strengthened from there but only targeting Southern Chile and well east of the CA swell window. Low odds of any swell resulting for California.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

Windswell Forecast
California:
On Friday (8/3) the pressure gradient is to become more defined driven by high pressure at 1026 mbs north of Hawaii ridging east producing north winds at 20 kts off all of North and Central CA and up to 25 over North CA perhaps resulting in marginally larger north local windswell but still with poor conditions. Saturday (8/4) the fetch is to hold locally with north winds 20+ kts over all of North and Central CA and up to 25 kts over North CA covering a good area off the coast resulting in more short period junky north windswell down into Central CA. The gradient and fetch is to start fading on Sun (8/5) as low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska falls southeast. Still north winds to be 20 kts along most of North CA and all of Central CA resulting in more junky short period north windswell at exposed breaks. That fetch is to fade even more on Mon (8/6) with north winds 15 kts isolated mainly to Central CA. No windswell expected.

Hawaii: Friday (8/3) the easterly fetch is to start fading as high pressure starts to break down north of the Islands. Easterly fetch is to still be in play at 15 kts, but no longer continuous between CA and HI. Sat (8/4) no windswell is expected as easterly fetch falls below the 15 kt threshold within 600 nmiles east of the Islands. No change Sun-Mon (8/6) with east fetch below 15 kts east of the Islands.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the models indicate a gale is to form in the deep South Central Pacific with 35-40 kt south winds aimed north starting to get traction on the oceans surface with seas building from 27 ft at 57S 160W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to build in coverage at 40 kts aimed north with seas 30 ft at 55S 155W aimed north-northeast. On Sat AM (8/4) fetch is to fade but still decent in coverage at 35-40 kts from the south with seas 32 ft at 50S 150W aimed north-northeast. In the evening fetch is to fade in coverage still at barely 40 kts from the south lifting north with seas 32 ft at 44.5S 147W. More of the same is forecast on Sun AM (8/5) with a tiny area of southwest winds at 35-40 kts lifting northeast with seas fading from 30 ft at 38.5S 141W. Fetch is to turn westerly in the evening at 40 kts with 28 ft seas at 38S 132.5W all aimed east. If all this develops as forecast some degree of respectable swell could result for Hawaii and more so for California down into Central America. Something to monitor.

And by Mon (8/6) additional fetch is to develop in the Southeast Pacific.

Details to follow...

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

Kelvin Wave Eruption Rebuilding - ESPI Continues Rising

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and have not stopped, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and was building over equatorial waters in July, suggesting the demise of La Nina and possibly turning towards El Nino.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2018 (California & Hawaii) = 4.0
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Sun (7/29) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific then weakening starting on the dateline turning moderately westerly over the core of the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were light easterly over the East equatorial Pacific turning calm west of there then reversing and turning solid westerly over the core of the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (7/30) light easterly anomalies were over the core of the KWGA and forecast to hold while slowly easing east through the end of the model run on 8/6 and possibly dissipating after that.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (7/29) A modest Active/Wet MJO signal was over the KWGA. The statistical model depicts that Active/Wet MJO signal is to steadily weaken and gone at day 6 while the Inactive/Dry Phase of the MJO moves from the Indian Ocean over the Maritime Continent and easing into the far West Pacific at day 15. The dynamic model depicts the same thing initially but with the Inactive/Dry Phase building stronger over the West Pacific at the end of the model run. The models are mostly in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (7/30) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was weak and stalled over the Western Pacific. It is to fade from here forward collapsing in strength in the West Pacific making no further eastward progress through the end of the model run 2 weeks out. The GEFS model image is corrupted.
40 day Upper Level Model: (7/30) This model depicts a very weak Active/Wet MJO signal was over the Central and East Pacific and is to be easing east over Central America on 8/19. A modest Inactive/Dry pattern is to follow in the West Pacific starting 8/4 making slow east headway reaching the East Pacific and moving into Central America at the end of the model run on 9/8. At that time a neutral MJO pattern is to be over the West Pacific.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/29) This model depicts modest west anomalies surrounding the KWGA but with weak east anomalies in the core of the KWGA. The forecast indicates those east anomalies to hold through 8/5 then dissipating with modest west anomalies slowly building in the KWGA reaching moderate strength by the end of the model run on 8/26.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/30) This model depicts the Active/Wet Phase of the MJO is a bit past it's peak over the KWGA with weak west anomalies over the entirety of the KWGA. The weak Active MJO pattern is to fade through 8/4 with a weak Inactive MJO signal taking over 8/7-8/27 but with weak west anomalies holding over the KWGA. A weak Active Phase of the MJO is to redevelop on 8/31 holding through 10/22 with solid west anomalies in the KWGA. A weak Inactive Phase is to follow 10/23 through the end of the model run on 10/27. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias is fully in control of the KWGA reaching east to 145W and built from 2 contour lines to 3 on 7/8 and forecast to build starting today and then holding through the end of the model run. This means we are biased towards El Nino starting today through the coming Fall season. The eastern edge of the Low Pressure bias is to ease east to 120W (over California) by 10/6. The high pressure bias is currently limited to an area south of California and shrinking steadily and is to be gone by 9/7. The atmosphere and ocean are slowly becoming coupled towards an El Nino bias and should fully reach that state on 8/8 or 3 months after the start of when the low pressure bias officially filled the KWGA (on 5/8). This pattern is more favorable to support storm production in the Pacific.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/30) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs reaching east to 165E. The 28 deg isotherm line started to retrograde west from 148W on 7/2 to 153W on 7/10 and is now steady at 160W due to weakening of a Kelvin Wave under the West Pacific. The 24 deg isotherm was 100 meters deep at 140W. It was loosing depth at 120W, moving from 75 meters deep to 25 meters deep today and retracting from the coast of Ecuador breaching at 105W. Anomaly wise warm waters associated with the February Kelvin Wave are in the East Pacific at 105W down 50 meters creating a bubble of warm water +2 degs above normal extending west to only 120W and erupting at the oceans surface from 115W to Ecuador. A pocket of cool water -1.0 below normal was just west of there centered at 130W. This Kelvin Wave has maybe 2 weeks or warm water left in it. Warm anomalies at +1-2 degs were over the West Pacific reaching east to 175W and with one small finger east to 140W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/22 depicts the same thing, with a bubble of warm water pushing east in the East Pacific starting at 135W building to +4.5 degs centered at 115W extending east to Ecuador. It was breaching the surface between 105W-145W. Additionally more warm water was pushing east from the Maritime Continent spilling into the West Pacific pushing under the dateline reaching east to 170W and building in coherency with broken fragments of warm water joining the existing Kelvin Wave east of there. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/22) Positive anomalies were solid from the Maritime Continent over the West Equatorial Pacific and broad in coverage to 100W, then weakening a little reaching east to the Galapagos before fading. There were no breaks and anomalies were 0-5 cm over that entire area with multiple imbedded pockets at 5+ cms. No negative anomalies were indicated. El Nino appears to be developing.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (7/29) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate near neutral anomalies along the immediate coast of Peru and Chile and fading slightly. An area of warm water is erupting on the oceans surface on the equator starting at the Galapagos west to 115W fairly strong, and then weaker to 160W and south far weaker at 10S. A broad area of generic warming was also filling the area north of the equator from Mexico out to the dateline. The remnants of the La Nina cool pool were limited to a region south of 3S between 130W to 160W.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/29): An elongated pocket of intense warming was along the equator from Ecuador to 120W. Temps were neutral along the coasts of Chile and Peru but warming along the coast of Central America up into mainland Mexico. Cooling previously solid off Central West Africa has turned to a strong warming pattern now, and that appears to start being mirrored off Ecuador.
Hi-res Overview: (7/28) An area of weak cool water was present along Chile and Peru. Of most interest was warm water holding on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos and west from there to the dateline from 10S up to 20N and building in coherence, but still just in the mild warming category. The only cool water was in the fading remnant pocket from La Nina limited to an area south of the equator starting at 4S between 145-180W.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/30) Today's temps were fading some down to -0.518 degs. That is still lower than a recent peak rising to +0.459 on 5/13. Overall temps here are steady in the -0.75 deg range.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/30) Today temps were rising at +0.307, up from +0.136 a week ago, but that down considerably from a peak at +0.490 on 7/2. Temps were -0.266 on 6/2, -0.427 on 5/12 after having reached up to -0.254 degs on 5/1. Temps have been steadily rising since 3/27 when they were down at -1.2 degs.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (7/30) The forecast calls for a steady increase from here forward rising in early Oct to +1.05 degs and to +1.25 degs in Nov then holding steady through April 2019. This suggests that perhaps El Nino is to build through the Summer and Fall of 2018. Most other models are also suggesting a possible turn to weak El Nino conditions by late Fall.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-July Plume depicts temps at +0.5 degs in July and are to slowly rise from here forward, to +0.6 in August and +0.8 in October and +1.0 in Nov and holding there into Feb 2019. See chart here - link. It looks like La Nina is fading out and a weak El Nino might develop. The CFSv2 is in the high end of that pack.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (7/30): The daily index was falling today at 4.92. The 30 day average was rising today to 1.81 suggesting the Inactive Phase of the MJO was present even though the MJO is supposedly Active. The 90 day average was rising some too at -0.56, turning negative for the first time in a year on 6/30 suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was building in the atmosphere. This is expected for a month more before falling into steady negative territory by mid August.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (7/30) Today the index was trying to rebound at -0.39 (after falling to -1.28 on 7/17). But that is way more negative than it recently was, when it hit the highest it's been in a year on 7/2 at -0.09. This recent negative trend appears to be fading, which is good news. But the fact that it developed at all suggests La Nina has not completely given up it's grip on equatorial precipitation yet and the supposed El Nino pattern is NOT coupled. Recent points of interest in reverse chronological order are: -1.04 on 6/5, -0.70 on 5/20, -0.60 on 5/17, -0.36 on 5/11 and -0.38 on 5/10, -0.35 on 4/26, -1.02 on 4/5, -1.13 on 3/27. The trend suggests La Nina is all but gone. This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina situations.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.10, Mar -0.51, April -0.85, May -0.61, June -0.96. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

 

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External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
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http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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