Thursday, August 1, 2019
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/ Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 3.0 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 13.4 secs from 189 degrees.
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.6 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 3.6 ft @ 6.5 secs from 43 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 5.9 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 10.5 secs from 159 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southwest at 10-12 kts. Water temperature 67.3 degs (46086). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.2 ft @ 6.5 secs from 305 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.9 ft @ 11.5 secs from 191 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.3 ft @ 6.0 secs from 273 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.0 ft @ 11.5 secs from 184 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.4 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 7.5 secs from 317 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was northwest at 8 kts. Water temp 54.1 degs (013) and 59.4 degs (042).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Thursday (8/1) in North and Central CA locally generated northwest windswell was producing waves at thigh high and warbled and mushed and not really unrideable. Protected breaks were waist high and pretty clean but soft and inconsistent and weak. At Santa Cruz surf was flat and clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were maybe thigh high on the sets and clean but with some lump running through it and soft with no wind. In North Orange Co waves were waist high and soft and clean. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were waist to sometimes chest high on the sets and weak and mushed but clean. North San Diego had surf at thigh high or so on the sets and soft and weak but clean. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was small with sets at thigh to waist high and clean and soft. The East Shore was getting building east windswell with waves chest high or so and chopped from moderate east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Thursday (8/1) in California and Hawaii no swell was hitting. Small southern hemi swell is tracking northeast towards mainly Southern CA from a gale that formed in the far Southeast Pacific on Wed-Thurs (7/25) with 25-28 ft seas aimed northeast. And yet another small swell has been generated tracking towards Hawaii and CA from a gale that developed southeast of New Zealand Sun (7/28) with 38 ft seas tracking east-northeast and fading with seas down to 26 ft in the Southeast Pacific on Tues (7/30). And maybe some fetch is to push under New Zealand tracking northeast on Mon-Tues (8/6) producing seas to 27 ft aimed northeast. Hurricane swell is potentially tracking towards the Big Island from Hurricane Erick with Flossie right behind. Otherwise no swell producing weather systems are forecast long term.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast other than local windswell (see below).
On Thursday (8/1) low pressure was just offshore and moving towards the Pacific Northwest from the Gulf of Alaska cutting into high pressure normally off California reducing northwest winds to 10-15 kts over a shallow area along the North and Central CA coast making for no windswell generation potential. Trades for Hawaii to continue at 15+ kts solid up to 1500 nmiles east of the Islands making for steady east windswell and enhanced by 2 tropical systems, Erick tracking south of the Big Island later and Flossie building 1350 nmiles east-southeast of Hawaii. So lots of easterly swell to be in flight. Friday (8/2) the low is to be pushing into the Pacific Northwest with northwest winds 15-20 kts along the coast of mainly Central CA generating limited northwest windswell pushing mainly in to Southern CA. But for Hawaii trades are to be 15-20 kt solid over the Islands early from Erick and 15 kts solid up to 1200 nmiles east of the Islands making for solid windswell mixed with tropical swell from Erick (fading south of Hawaii) and Flossie (1,000 nmiles east-southeast of Hawaii). On Saturday (8/3) the gradient is to try and build weakly while lifting north with 15-20 kts north winds mainly later over North and Central CA making for junky short period windswell if even rideable. Trades to be fading over Hawaii from 15+ kts with Erick down to depression status tracking south of Kauai and no easterly fetch east of Hawaii until 450 nmiles out where fetch from Flossie is to be building and extending at 15+ kts up to 1800 nmiles out. Sunday (8/4) north winds to be building in coverage some at 15-20 kts along the North and Central CA coast making for rideable but limited raw short period local windswell. Flossie is to be fading 400 nmiles east-southeast of the Big Island generating east fetch at 15+ kts up to 1200 nmiles east of the Big Island.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Hurricane Erick on Thurs AM (8/1) a slow fade was developing from Erick 250 nmiles southeast of Hawaii with winds 75 kts (86 mph) tracking east. On Fri (8/2) Erick is to be 250 nmiles south of Hawaii with winds 45 kts (52 mph) and fading while tracking east from there no longer offering swell production potential.
Hawaii: On Thurs (8/1) swell is to be building to 7.0 ft @ 13 secs (9.0 ft) later. Swell fading on Fri (8/2) from 6.0 ft @ 9-10 secs (5.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (8/3) fading from 4.5 ft @ 8 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 110 degrees On Oahu only windswell to reach the east shore there mainly Thurs-Fri (8/2) at 4.5 ft @ 7-8 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 65-75 degrees
Tropical Storm Flossie on Thurs AM (8/1) had winds at 55 kts (63 mph) 1400 nmiles out from the Big Island and producing limited swell heading west. On Fri AM (8/2) winds to be holding at 55 kts (63 mph) 1000 nmiles out tracking west-northwest. On Sat (8/3) Flossie is to hold at 55 kts (Tropical Storm force) 750 nmiles out tracking west-northwest. By Sun (8/4) Flossie is to be weakening some with winds down to 50 kts (58 mph) 450 nmiles east-southeast of the Big Island tracking west-northwest. By Mon (8/5) Flossie is to be weakening and likely at 45 kts (52 mph) just 100 nmiles northeast of the Big Island tracking northeast. On Tues (8/6) Flossie is to be turning to the northwest with winds fading from 40 kts (45 mph) 150 nmiles north of Maui. Something to monitor but at this time no significant strengthening is forecast and no real solid swell production is expected. Rather windswell to result.
Hawaii: On Sun (8/4) swell arrival on the Big Island is expected on Sun afternoon (8/4) building to 6.0 ft @ 13 secs later (7.5 ft). Swell steady on Mon (8/5) at 6.8 ft @ 10-11 secs (6.5 ft). Windswell fading from there. Swell Direction: 95 degrees. On Oahu swell arrival expected on Mon (8/5) at 4.0 ft @ 11-12 secs (4.5 ft). Swell fading out on Tues (8/6) from 4.0 ft @ 10 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 90 degrees
California Nearshore Forecast
On Thurs (8/1) winds were fading at 10-15 kts over all of North and Central CA nearshore waters. Fri (8/2) more of the same is forecast early but north winds up to 20 kts over Pt Conception are forecast. Sat (8/3) north winds to be 15 kts over North CA nearshore waters and 20 kts down near Morro Bay. Sun (8/4) north winds to be 15-20 kts over North CA and 15 kts for Central CA nearshore waters. Monday (8/5) north winds to be 20+ kts over North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA nearshore waters. Tues (8/6) north winds to build to 20-25 kts early for North CA fading later and 10-15 kts down into Central CA. Wednesday (8/7) north winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. On Thurs (8/8) light winds are forecast for all of North CA and north winds to be 10 kts for Central CA except 15 kts for Pt Conception.
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).
On Thursday (8/1) the jet was ridging hard south over the Ross Ice Shelf under and southeast of New Zealand then lifting northeast over the Southeast Pacific east of 140W forming a trough being fed by 90-100 kts winds offering weak support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to push east fast and out of the Southern CA swell window by Fri (8/2) offering no support for gale development in the California swell window. To the west the pre-existing ridge is to hold over the entirety of the South Pacific offering no support of gale development. But on Fri (8/2) a trough is to start building south of the Tasman Sea being fed by 130 kts winds early then fading to 100 kts later in the day perhaps offering some support for gale development there. That trough is to push east into Sun (8/4) being fed by 110 kts winds offering some support for gale development but getting progressively cutoff and all but gone by Mon AM (8/5). Beyond 72 hours starting Monday (8/5) the southern branch of the jet is to wither away and weak offering no support for gale development into Wed (8/7). But later on Wednesday a bit of a trough is to start building under New Zealand being fed by 90 kt winds pushing northeast possibly providing weak support for gale development into Thurs (8/8) while a ridge holds solid from 150W and points east of there actively suppressing support for gale development there.
No swell is hitting Hawaii or California. But swell from a weak gale that previously developed in the far Southeast Pacific is radiating northeast (see Another Weak Southeast Pacific Gale below). And another swell is behind that from a gale that traversed the South Pacific (see South-Central Pacific Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours a tiny storm developed just south of Tasmania Wed PM (7/31) producing 50-55 kt south winds with seas building from 37 ft at 46.5S 145.5E aimed east targeting only New Zealand. The gale was building while tracking east Thurs AM (8/1) with 55 kt southwest winds and seas building to 43 ft at 47S 158.5E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to impact Southern New Zealand with south winds fading from 45 kts and seas at 45 ft at 45S 166E impacting Southwest New Zealand. Maybe some small sideband swell to radiate north towards Fiji and of course New Zealand, but not in the US (including Hawaii) swell window.
Another broader gale is forecast developing south of the Tasman Sea on Fri AM (8/2) producing a large area of 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas 33 ft at 53S 153E aimed northeast up into the Tasman Sea and somewhat into the California swell window. In the evening the gale is to build but it's core is to be over the Ross Ice Shelf getting no traction on the oceans surface with 35-40 kts southwest winds exposed over ice free waters with 31 ft seas over a solid area at 55S 154.5E aimed northeast. The gale is to continue on Sat AM (8/3) producing 30-35 kt southwest fetch with a core to 45 kts producing 29-30 ft seas at 58.5S 159.5E aimed northeast. In the evening a broad fetch of 30-35 kt southwest winds to hold with 26-28 ft seas at 59S 164E aimed northeast and in the CA and HI swell windows. On Sun AM (8/4) fetch is to be fading from 35 kts positioned south-southwest of New Zealand with seas 28 ft over a small area aimed well northeast at 55.5S 159E targeting Tahiti and California but not Fiji or HAwaii (shadowed by New Zealand). In the evening residual 35 kts southwest winds to be tracking up the east coast of New Zealand generating seas of 27 ft at 50.5S 168E targeting Tahiti, Hawaii and California. On Mon AM (8/5) the gale is to be lifting northeast with 35 kts southwest winds and a new core to 45 kts producing seas at 26 ft at 47S 176E aimed northeast. In the evening the gale to fade with southwest winds 35 kts aimed northeast and off the northeastern tip of New Zealand with seas 24-26 ft seas at 40S 171W aimed northeast. from there. Fetch to track east on Tues AM (8/6) with 35 kt southwest wind and seas 26 ft at 38S 160W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.
Another Weak Southeast Pacific Gale
Another weak gale developed in the far Southeast Pacific on Wed AM (7/24) producing 35 kt southeast winds over a solid area aimed northeast with seas building to 23 ft at 58S 126W aimed northeast. Fetch was pushing east in the evening with southwest winds 30-35 kts on the edge of Southern CA swell window with seas 23 ft at 59S 120W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (7/25) secondary southwest fetch was holding at 35-40 kts on the edge of the SCal swell window with 26-28 ft seas at 58S 119W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 35 kts with seas fading from 24 ft at 59S 117W aimed northeast. There is low odds of any meaningful swell possibly radiating into the Southern CA swell window.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (8/3) at 1.6 ft @ 15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell holding on Sun (8/4) at 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading on Mon (8/5) from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 186 degrees
South-Central Pacific Gale
A pre-gale developed in the Central South Pacific on Sat (7/27) producing a tiny area of 50 kt southwest winds and 29 ft seas at 60S 153W aimed east. Fetch tracked east in the evening and faded from 40 kts from the southwest and seas 27 ft at 58S 142W aimed east-northeast. On Sun AM (7/28) fetch was fading from 35 kts over a broader area aimed northeast with seas 27 ft at 55S 138W. Fetch held in the evening while lifting northeast with southwest winds 35 kts and seas 27 ft at 52S 131W aimed northeast. The gale faded from there.
A weak gale developed tracking east under New Zealand Sun AM (7/28) with 45 ft west winds and seas building to 38 ft over a small area at 61S 180W. In the evening the gale lifted northeast with 45 kt southwest winds and seas 37 ft at 59.5S 168W aimed east-northeast. The gale continued tracking east-northeast on Monday AM (7/29) while moving over the Central South Pacific with a fairly solid area of 35-40 kts southwest winds and seas fading from 31 ft at 59.5S 155.5W aimed east-northeast. In the evening a broad area of 35 kt southwest winds are to be consolidating with 29 ft seas at 56.5S 140W. On Tues AM (7/30) south winds to be 30-35 kts aimed north over a solid area with seas 27 ft at 53S 140W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30 kts with seas fading from 24 ft at 50S 132W aimed north-northeast. The gale to dissipate after that. Something to monitor.
Southern CA: Expect pre-swell arrival forecast on Mon (8/5) building to 2.0 ft @ 17-18 secs later (3.5 ft). Pre-swell building on Tues (8/6) 2.3 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 197 degrees. Core swell to start showing on Tues (8/6) building to 2.0 ft @ 18 secs late (3.5 ft). Swell building on Wed (8/7) to 2.6 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.0 ft). Swell holding on Thurs (8/8) at 2.8 ft @ 15 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 193 degrees
North CA: Expect pre-swell arrival forecast on Mon (8/5) building to 1.6 ft @ 18 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Pre-swell building on Tues (8/6) to 2.0 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 193 degrees. Core swell to start showing on Tues (8/6) building to 1.6 ft @ 19 secs late (3.0 ft). Swell building on Wed (8/7) at 2.2 ft @ 17 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell holding Thurs (9/8) at 2.3 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
On Monday (8/5) the gradient along California is to build a little with north winds 20 kts along the North CA coast and 15 kts solid along and off the Central CA coast generating raw local northwest windswell. For Hawaii Flossie is to be approaching and moving over the northeast corner of the Big Island while dissipating generating a fetch of 20-25 kts southeast winds producing windswell with 15 kt east winds up to 1200 nmiles east of there. Tuesday (8/6) for California north winds to continue at 20+ kts along North CA early and 15 kts for Central CA and fading to 15 kts later all locations resulting in modest short period raw windswell. For Hawaii Flossie is to be racing north offering limited residual easterly windswell while trades hold at 15 kts up to 1200 nmiles east of the Islands making for more short period east windswell. Wednesday (8/7) no windswell is expected for CA with north winds limited to 15 kts from Carmel southward. For Hawaii trades to be 10-15 kts east of the Islands offering nothing. On Thurs (8/8) no local fetch exceeding 15 kts is forecast for CA. other than over Pt Conception offering no windswell generation potential. Trades to be less than 15 kts east of Hawaii offering nothing there either.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
Low Pressure Bias To Hold in KWGA This Winter
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and did not stop, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June warm water was fading and the outlook did not favor El Nino come Fall.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2019 = 5.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that weak borderline El Nino condition continue, and assuming a weak ocean-atmospheric coupling holds and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 hold in the +0.8 deg range, there is good probability for slightly enhanced storm production in the South Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere Summer time months. There is slightly increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in slightly increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period. This should be significantly better than the past 2 Summer seasons.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/31) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific shrinking in coverage but still present over the Central Pacific with east winds moderate extending west over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest easterly over the East equatorial Pacific then neutral over the Central Pacific and neutral over the core of the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (8/1) a neutral anomaly pattern was over the KWGA today biased weakly from the west. The forecast is for neutral anomalies holding over the KWGA through the end of the model run on 8/6 biased from the west but with east anomalies developing over the dateline 8/6-8/8. A neutral MJO pattern appears to be over the KWGA and is to hold over the next 7 days.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (7/31) A neutral MJO pattern biased towards the Active Phase was indicated over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates a neutral MJO Phase is to hold over the KWGA over the length of the 15 day model. The dynamic model indicates the same thing but with weak signs of the Active Phase building in the West KWGA at days 10-15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (8/1) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was over the Central Maritime Continent and very weak and it is to hold at that strength and position through day 15 of the model run. The GEFS model suggests the same thing initially but with the Active Phase building some reaching modest strength locked over the Maritime Continent at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (7/26) This model depicts a weak Inactive Phase over the East Pacific and a weak Active MJO Phase over the West Pacific. The forecast has the Inactive Phase of the MJO pushing into Central America on 8/5 while the Active Phase pushes east while fading reaching weakly into Central America 8/25. A weak Inactive Phase is to develop in the far West Pacific on 8/20 and it is to track east moving into the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 9/4. A weak Active Phase of the MJO is to be building in the West Pacific at that time too.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/31) This model depicts no MJO signal present in the Pacific today but with weak to modest west anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast has weak to modest west anomalies holding in the KWGA from today through the end of the model run on 8/28. Support for gale development to continue but generally weak.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/1) This model depicts a neutral MJO pattern over the KWGA today but with weak west anomalies mainly over the dateline. A dead neutral NJO signal is to hold through 9/6 but with weak west anomalies mainly on the dateline and neutral anomalies over the far West KWGA. After that a very weak Active Phase is forecast moving over the KWGA on 9/14 holding through 10/10 with weak to modest west anomalies filling the entirety of the KWGA. A weak Inactive MJO pattern is to develop in the KWGA on 10/12 pushing east through the KWGA at the end of the model run on 10/29 but with weak west anomalies holding filling the KWGA. The low pass filter changed on 7/25 and is holding today with a low pressure bias with 1 contour line in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. This single remaining contour line is to hold till 9/6 then fade out only to rebuild to it's previous coverage on 10/8 and filling the KWGA till the end of the model run. If this pattern holds over the next few weeks, this would constitute a significant upgrade. There is currently no sign of a high pressure bias building over the dateline (in the Pacific) yet. This model indicates that a weak El Nino pattern is to fade in late August and maybe rebuild or maybe not. Basically we are moving from a pattern biased towards El Nino to one biased towards ENSO neutral.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/1) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs over a steady area reaching east to 176W while the 29 deg isotherm was steady today at 165W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding to 154W today. The 24 deg isotherm previously pushed into Ecuador at 30 meters down, but retrograded on 7/11 from 107W to 120W today. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire subsurface Pacific at +1 degs from the surface to 150 meters down (deepest on the dateline). A pocket of +2 deg anomalies were developing under the dateline today (possible Kelvin Wave #5). But in the East Pacific warn anomalies were almost gone today and barely at 1 degree in one thin stream pushing east from 150W into the far East equatorial Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/12 indicates warm water from Westerly Wind Burst #5 has formed a small pocket of warm water under the Central equatorial Pacific from 165E to 125W at +1.0 degs above normal, and shrinking in coverage and shallow reaching down only 90 meters. A small pocket of cool water was drawing up from depth to nearly the surface from 150W to Ecuador. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/12) A small pocket of positive anomalies were building under the dateline at +5 cms from 170E to 145W. Otherwise no positive anomalies are indicated over the equatorial Pacific with neutral anomalies over the bulk of the equator and a small area of negative anomalies at -5 cms was over the Galapagos.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (7/30) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate weak warm anomalies are present north and south of the equator from Central America west to 120W and then with broader coverage from 120W to the dateline but with a stream of cool waters along the coast of Chile up to Peru then streaming west on the equator off Ecuador over the Galapagos and out to 135W solidly suggestive of La Nina. And the warm anomalies south of the equator were fading in coverage holding over a thin stream aligned west to east centered at 10S. At this time there is only weak indications of the remnants of El Nino remaining off the equator but with likely signs of La Nina developing directly on the equator in the East Pacific.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/31): A clear cooling trend/stream remained in-place pushing from off Ecuador west to 140W on the equator. Cool pockets were over that area interspersed with a few tiny pockets of warming water, but the cool anomalies were clearly in control. A weaker but still barely present stream of cool water was still pushing west off Africa on the equator. In general the trend towards a cooler pattern in the equatorial Pacific is becoming apparent.
Hi-res Overview: (7/31) A clear La Nina cool stream was pushing west off Ecuador to 140W. Warmer than normal water was straddling the equator from the remnants of El Nino, from Ecuador west over the Galapagos 20 degrees north of the equator and only over a thin stream on 10S continuing west of there to the dateline. But that unmistakable stream of cool water was running west on the equator from just off the Peruvian Coast and then solidly from the Galapagos west to 135W indicative of La Nina. And warm temps south of the equator from Peru west to 140W were quickly fading to nearly neutral. El Nino appears to be in retreat and La Nina appears to be developing.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/1) Today's temps were steady today at -0.810 and have been pretty consistently negative since June 1.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/1) Today temps were rising slightly today at +0.292 today. The trend has been generally downward since mid-June.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (7/31) The model indicates a cooling trend has set up with temps +0.1 degs in late July and falling down slightly to -0.05 degs Oct 1 then falling through Dec to -0.40 degrees. On Jan 1 2020 temps are to start rebuilding reaching +0.20 degs by April 1 but that seems highly unlikely. Some form of La Nina is likely coming.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.60 degs in June, and are to hold in the +0.70 range into November, then fading slightly to +0.65 in February 2020. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (8/1): The daily index was negative today at -7.47, but otherwise mixed the last 11 days. The 30 day average was falling at -6.53. The 90 day average was falling at -8.21, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern biased towards El Nino (for now).
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (April) +0.34, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. It is approaching El Nino territory but still indicted mostly ENSO neutral conditions.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Surfer -Shaper Glen Kennedy passed away earlier this month. His memorial paddle out is set for Sunday, July 28th at First Point Malibu at 10 AM. Come celebrate Glen's life.
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