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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Monday, August 3, 2020 5:36 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
1.5 - California & 1.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 8/3 thru Sun 8/9

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

SE Pacific Swell Radiating North
Southwest Pacific to Offer Potential Longterm

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Monday, August 3, 2020 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 10.1 secs from 170 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.1 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 8.3 secs from 19 degrees. Water temp 79.7 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 6.2 secs from 261 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 0-4 kts. Water temperature 68.2 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.1 ft @ 8.1 secs from 307 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 8.4 secs from 232 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.5 ft @ 10.0 secs from 209 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 1.9 ft @ 9.1 secs from 210 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.8 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 4.8 ft @ 6.5 secs from 311 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 18-23 kts. Water temp 52.5 degs (013), 60.8 degs (SF Bar) and 55.8 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

 
Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Monday (8/3) in North and Central CA local northwest windswell was producing waves at waist to maybe chest high and mushed and warbled and nearly chopped from northwest winds early. Protected breaks were waist high on the sets and and mushed and clean but with some warble on top and weak. At Santa Cruz surf was flat to knee high and clean and very weak. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high and clean but with a fair amount of warble coming from the northwest and soft with no wind. Central Orange County had some set waves in the chest high range and clean but soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at chest high and clean and lined up and decent when they came. North San Diego had sets at thigh high and weak and mushed with clean conditions. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had occasional waist high sets and clean and soft. The East Shore was getting east windswell with waves thigh to waist high and chopped from east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Monday (8/3) locally generated windswell was providing some thing in North and Central CA while tiny background southern hemi swell was providing something to ride in Southern CA. The South Shore of the Islands were getting tiny background southern hemi swell too. Looking forward a small gale developed in the Southeast Pacific on Sun (8/2) producing a broad area of 29-30 ft seas aimed northeast. Swell is starting to push north. The model are teasing concerning some degree of gale activity developing south of the Tasman Sea starting Sat (8/8) but there's still debate as to whether it will actually form or result in meaningful swell. But at least there's some hope.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Monday (8/3) no swell of interest was in the water.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. But a series of weak low pressures system are forecast tracking through the Northern Gulf of Alaska Mon-Tues (8/4) then again on Thurs-Fri (8/7) producing up to 17 ft seas, suggesting that perhaps there's faint signs of Fall trying to organize. It's too early to be believable just yet though.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Monday (8/3) northwest winds were 15-20 kts over North and Central CA producing some minimal northwesterly windswell for exposed breaks and expected to hold all day. On Tues (8/4) a building fetch of northwest winds is forecast early at 15-20 kts over all of North and Central CA waters offering respectable potential for windswell development and holding all day. Wed (8/5) the gradient is to be holding with northwest winds 15-20 kts early over North and Central CA offering good but raw windswell generation potential then fading some in the afternoon. Thurs (8/6) the gradient is to be less coherent and fading in coverage but still producing 15-20 kts northwest winds focused more over North CA with 15 kts northwest winds mainly off the coast of Central CA continuing some windswell generation potential. Fri (8/7) the gradient is to rebuild over North CA early with northwest winds 20-25 kts and 15 kts north west winds sweeping south over Central CA offering some improved windswell production potential. Sat (8/8) the gradient is to hold with northwest winds 20-25 kts over North CA waters with northwest winds 5-10 kts for Central CA offering some windswell production potential. Sun (8/9) the gradient is to be localized to Cape Mendocino with north winds 25-30 kts with light winds for Central CA offering windswell production potential for exposed breaks. Monday (8/10) the gradient is to be fading with north winds 20-25 kts limited to off the coast of North CA early and fading in velocity and coverage in the afternoon with windswell production potential fading.

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches respectively. Freezing level 14,000 ft or higher for the week.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Monday (8/3) the jetstream was well split over the width of the South Pacific with the southern branch running flat west to east in a zonal flow down at 60S at up to 130 kts but with no troughs evident offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours no change is forecast with the zonal flow continuing offering no direct support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (8/8) a trough is forecast developing under New Zealand being fed by 130-140 kt winds pushing to the northeast offering decent support for gale development and being reinforced on Sun (8/9) by more wind energy at 150 kts feeding to the northeast further improving odds for gale development. But the trough is to make no eastward progress over that duration, stalled under New Zealand.

Surface Analysis
On Monday (8/3) small swell from a gale that built in the far Southeast Pacific was radiating north towards California, Central and South America (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

Southeast Pacific Gale
A gale developed in the far Southeast Pacific on Sat PM (8/1) producing a broad fetch of 35-40 kt southwest winds with seas building. On Sun AM (8/2) the fetch was lifting northeast at 35-40 kts producing 30 ft seas at 53.5S 130.5W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was fading from 30-35 kts from the southwest while starting to move east and out of the California swell window with seas holding at 29 ft at 49S 127W aimed northeast and fading. Fetch was gone after that. Decent odds of some 15-16 secs period swell resulting radiating north towards California.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (8/9) building to 2.0 ft @ 18-19 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell building on Mon (8/10) and peaking late afternoon at 2.7 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 184 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (8/9) building to 1.0 ft @ 20 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell building on Mon (8/10) and peaking late afternoon at 2.6 ft @ 17-18 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 183 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. The models do suggest a low pressure system developing in the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska on Thurs (8/6) producing 30 kt northwest winds with seas to 17 ft near 52N 166W. But this still seems a little premature given the time of year.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast building in the far Southwest Pacific south of Tasmania on Fri PM (8/7) pushing east with 55 kt southwest winds and seas to 45 over a small area at 61S 146E just north of the Ross Ice Shelf. On Sat AM (8/8) southwest winds to be 45 kts with seas building to 46 ft over a small area at 59S 159.5E aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch is to fade out with seas from previous fetch fading from 37 ft at 57.7S 170E aimed east-northeast. Something to monitor.

On Sun PM (8/9) another broad fetch is to be building at 40 kts south of Tasmania aimed directly at New Zealand with seas building to 33 ft at 55S 146E aimed northeast. On Mon AM (8/10) fetch is to be impacting southern New Zealand at 40 kts with 34 ft seas at 51S 157E pushing up into the Tasman Sea and targeting New Zealand. In the evening a broad fetch of 35-50 kt westerly winds is to be pushing east under New Zealand with 29-30 ft seas over a solid area at 50S 180W pushing northeast and possibly targeting Tahiti, HAwaii and the US West Coast with luck. Something to monitor.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina Signal Building in Central Equatorial Pacific

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.

And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool pushed east and by May subsurface cool waters erupted off Ecuador, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, holding into July 2020.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2020/2021 = 3.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020 only to return stronger in the Summer of 2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. But at this time that does not appear likely. Given all that, for the 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020/21, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the Spring of 2021.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (8/2) 5 day average winds were solid from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and strong over the KWGA. Anomalies were moderately easterly over the East equatorial holding modest easterly over the Central Pacific and also modest east over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (8/3) strong east anomalies were developing in the KWGA today with east anomalies filling all the equatorial Pacific to Ecuador. The forecast calls for east anomalies building to strong status and filling the KWGA on 8/5 and continuing unchanged through the end of the model run on 8/10. Support for energy transfer into the jet is very low and forecast to only turn more that way resulting in the jet moving more poleward.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (8/2) A neutral MJO pattern was over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates a weak to modest Active Pattern is to start building in far west KWGA on day 5 of the model run peaking on day 10 and almost filling the KWGA, then quickly fading on day 15. The dynamic model suggests the same thing initially and is corrupt after that.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (8/3) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the Maritime Continent today and is to slowly ease east while remaining at weak status moving into the West Pacific 15 days out. The GEFS model suggests the same thing but with the strength of the Active Phase building to modest strength 4 days out and holding through day 15 while moving over the West Pacific. this would be a good thing if it happens.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (8/2) This model depicts a moderate Inactive MJO exiting east out of the far East Pacific. A modest and coherent Active MJO is forecast developing over the KWGA on 8/10 pushing over the Central Pacific and into the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 9/11. At that time a developing weak Inactive MJO is forecast moving east into the far West Pacific.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/2) This model depicts no coherent MJO signal over the KWGA today with east anomalies filling the KWGA at moderate to strong strength and continuing east to Ecuador. The forecast indicates a continuation of no MJO signal but with strong east anomalies filling the KWGA and the entirety of the Pacific through 8/10. A coherent Active Phase of the MJO is forecast moving into the KWGA on 8/10 tracking east through 8/19 but but with east anomalies holding though weakening to modest strength in the KWGA then turning to west anomalies over the Central and East Pacific. Beyond east anomalies to hold at modest to moderate strength in the KWGA through the end of the model run on 8/30 but westerly anomalies are forecast holding over the Central and East Pacific mainly associated with the Active MJO pushing east over that area at that time. Overall a long run of easterly anomalies are setting up in the KWGA. August will be a tough month for swell production theoretically.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/3 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts a weak Inactive MJO tracking east through the KWGA today with moderate east anomalies filling the KWGA and reaching east to Ecuador on the equator. The forecast depicts the Inactive MJO tracking east and out of the KWGA on 8/16 with modest east anomalies holding reaching east to Ecuador. A modest Active MJO is forecast moving over the KWGA 8/5 and then filling it by 8/16 and holding through 9/1 producing weak west anomalies at times in the KWGA but mostly east anomalies to hold in the KWGA. A weak Inactive Phase is forecast traversing the Pacific 8/23-9/13 with another bout of east anomalies in the KWGA and filling the whole equatorial Pacific. A strong Active Phase of the MJO is forecast 9/12-10/22 with west anomalies filling the KWGA at up to strong status starting 10/6, but with east anomalies solid prior to that. A weak Inactive Phase to follow 10/14-the end of the model run on 10/31. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is in control over the dateline today and is to steadily build in coverage through the end of the model run with a second contour setting up on 9/3 with the high pressure bias filling the bulk of the equatorial Pacific by 8/11 and not giving up any ground over the length of the model run. A single contour low pressure bias is to appear over the Indian Ocean starting 8/10 building in coverage through the end of the model run. East anomalies that have been previously solid in the Indian Ocean are almost complete migrating east into the West Pacific today and are to set up on the dateline and points east of there by 8/5 and then building and filling in over that entire area for the foreseeable future. Based on this model it appears a transition towards La Nina is occurring.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/3) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was gone. The 29 deg isotherm has retrograded at 172E today. The 28 deg isotherm line was stable at 172W today. The 24 deg isotherm was retrograding to 118W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies 0-1 deg C were in one pocket in the far West Pacific reaching east to 167W with another pocket at +1 deg between 100W to 135W. A river of generally cooler temps were tracking west to east down at 150m traversing the width of the equatorial Pacific. Embedded in that was a pocket of cooler anomalies at -2 degs located between 125-1735W today. It appears a conveyor belt of cool water (Cold water Kelvin Waves) was in effect. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/27 indicates the same thing with a cool water bubble at depth in the far east erupting to the surface between 105W to 80W at -3 degs C. Another subsurface cool bubble was in-flight to the east at 155W stretch from 180W to 125W. A thin wall of warm water was between the 2 cool bubbles. Yet a third cool bubble was building in the far west at 140E. In effect a river of cool water was at depth under the entirety of the equatorial Pacific 150m tracking east. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/27) Negative anomalies at -5 to -10 cms were showing signs of rebuilding over the bulk of the equatorial Pacific from the dateline eastward. Neutral anomalies were west of there to 160E. Negative anomalies were along and down the coast of Peru and up the coast of Central America to mainland Mexico but weaker than days and week past at only -5 cms. But, no positive anomalies were over the equatorial Pacific either, except west of 160E.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (8/2) The latest images indicate cold water was holding along Peru tracking northwest while building over and off Ecuador then tracking west on the equator weakening some west of the Galapagos then rebuilding at 130W and solid out to the dateline looking like the standard La Nina signature. The stream was steady today. Cool anomalies were along the coast of Chile up into Peru turning decidedly cooler and appearing to be feeding the cool stream. Warm water was off Central America reaching west to the dateline but only north of the equator, remnants of a fading El Nino like pattern. Overall the cool pool on the equator was unmistakable and starting to show signs of weak rebuilding after previously being stalled.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/2): Pockets of cooling water were in-place from the Galapagos extending west on the equator out to 160W. A cooling trend appears to be building in the equatorial Central Pacific. There were some small pockets of warming interspersed. The short term trend is looking like development of a large scale cooling trend.
Hi-res Overview: (8/2) A stream of cool water is entrenched along the coast of Peru lifting northwest to the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and building over the entire region. Warmer than normal temps were stable north of the equator with cooler than normal water building on and south of the equator out to the dateline. Overall the data suggests a building La Nina like pattern.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/3) Today's temps were rising slightly to -1.580, after being previously down to -1.970 on 7/17. Temps have been dropping steadily since March 26. Overall the trend is towards cooling after having previously been in a warmer range at +0.6 degs between 2/25-3/26.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(8/3) Temps were falling hard today to -0.343 after being neutral the past 4 weeks 6/27-7/25. Previously temps were rising the last previous 3 weeks after bottoming out down at -0.595 on 5/27. Overall the trend was warming but now appears to be in a decline.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (8/3) Actual temperatures were in the +0.65 deg range 1/1/2020 through 4/1/2020, then started falling down to -0.20 in late-May before stabilized there through late June. The forecast depicts temps starting a precipitous fall on July 1, down to -0.50 in late July, continuing down reaching -1.10 on Oct 1 and dropping to -1.15 through mid Dec, then starting to rebound reaching at neutral on April 1. According to this model sea surface temps should have been falling strongly starting July 1 moving towards La Nina as Summer progressed. But as of today (8/1) actual temps were neutral in the Nino3.4 region through 7/26, and have only recently started to trend downward. For the model to verify, some dramatic cooling is going to have to happen soon, which it may just be starting to do. Regardless, we think the dynamic models might be overstating the magnitude of the coming cooling trend for the equatorial Pacific.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 19, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at -0.42 degs, and are to fall into Oct to -0.55 degs then moderating and starting to rise some to -0.35 by Jan 2021 and then neutral by March. The low outlier is a dynamic models (NASA GMAO). But a good plethora of models are now suggesting a developing solid La Nina. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (8/1): The daily index was neutral today at 0.85. The 30 day average was falling at +2.93. The 90 day average was falling to -0.99, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was in control.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): June -0.67, May -0.46, April 2020 -0.69, March -0.09, Feb +0.65, Jan +0.42, This index was steady positive Aug 2018 through Feb 2020, and now is steady negative, but only weakly so.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (8/2):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4t59esqDc0&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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