Tuesday, August 20, 2019
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 4.7 ft @ 20.0 secs with swell 3.8 ft @ 19.0 secs from 189 degrees.
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.8 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 9.9 secs from 273 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 5.3 secs with swell 1.0 ft @ 13.4 secs from 283 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 12-14 kts. Water temperature 67.1 degs (46086). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 1.6 ft @ 14.2 secs from 249 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.1 ft @ 13.9 secs from 220 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.1 ft @ 13.6 secs from 207 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.0 ft @ 13.1 secs from 238 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 13.5 secs from 261 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was west at 6 kts. Water temp 53.2 degs (013) and 60.1 degs (042).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Tuesday (8/20) in North and Central CA locally generated northwest windswell was producing waves at waist high and heavily textured from southerly breeze. Protected breaks were flat to thigh high and glassy but barely breaking. At Santa Cruz waves were knee to thigh high on the sets and clean but not really rideable. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat and clean but with a fair amount of warble in the water. In North Orange Co waves were thigh high on the sets and weak and mushy but fairly clean. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were waist high on the rare sets and clean but weak. North San Diego had surf at almost waist high and semi lined up and clean but weak. Hawaii's North Shore was getting limited swell with waves waist high or so and clean. The South Shore was chest high and clean and lined up but slow. The East Shore was getting no real east windswell with waves thigh high and a nearly chopped from modest easterly-northeast trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Tuesday (8/20) in California no real swell of interest was hitting other than local windswell. Of more interest is swell from a gale that developed just southeast of New Zealand Tues-Wed (8/14) with up to 40 ft seas over a tiny area aimed northeast migrating east to the Southeast Pacific through Sat (8/17) with seas slowly fading from 32 ft to 28 ft over that time period. Swell is starting to hit Hawaii and will eventually make it to California. Otherwise no swell producing weather system are forecast for the next week in the Southern Pacific though a decent system is to develop in the Tasman Sea targeting Fiji well today through early Fri (8/23) with up to 38 ft seas aimed north. In the North Pacific a pair of weak weather systems are in play with one in the Gulf of Alaska producing 18 ft seas aimed east and another over the Dateline producing 20 ft seas aimed east. But nothing else is forecast behind.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Two weather systems are being monitored today, one in the Gulf and the other over the Dateline (see details below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
Gulf of Alaska Low
On Mon AM (8/19) a small low pressure system started building in the Central Gulf of Alaska producing 30-35 kt west winds over a tiny area near 37N 147W aimed east with seas building. In the evening a small fetch of 30-35 kt west to southwest winds were building in the gales south quadrant off the Pacific Northwest with 18 ft seas building over a tiny area at 42.5N 143W aimed east. On Tues AM (8/20) the gale is to be dissipating while lifting northeast off Oregon with 25 kt west winds and seas fading from 15-16 ft at 43N 138W. The gale to briefly redevelop Wed AM (8/21) along the coast of North British Columbia producing 22 ft seas at 53.5N 133.5W completely outside the California swell window but in the Pacific Northwest swell window.
North CA: Expect swell arrival at sunset on Wed (8/21) 3.6 ft @ 12 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell being holding Thurs AM (8/22) at 4.0 ft @ 11 secs (4.0-4.5 ft) but being overrun by shorter period local north windswell. Swell Direction: 290 degrees
On Mon AM (8/19) a gale started building just west of the dateline with 35 kt northwest winds over a small area with seas building. In the evening the gale lifted north a decent but small fetch of 30-35 kt west winds holding with seas 20 ft over a tiny area at 44N 178E aimed east. The gale faded on Tues AM (9/20) with 25-30 kt west winds and seas 16 ft aimed east at 45N 179E. The gale to dissipate from there.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival later on Thurs (8/22) building to 2.0 ft @ 12 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading Fri AM (8/23) from 2.1 ft @ 11 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction:310 degrees
On Tuesday (8/20) low pressure and a front off the Pacific Northwest was dominating the East Pacific offering no odds for high pressure formation and therefore no odds for windswell production for California or Hawaii. Wednesday (8/21) weak high pressure is to be trying to develop 600 nmiles north of Hawaii ridging east as low pressure fades over British Columbia producing 15 kt north winds along the North CA coast and up to 20-25 kts for Central CA focused on Pt Conception likely resulting in no windswell production. For Hawaii east fetch at 15 kts is forecast in a few pockets east of the Islands offering no meaningful windswell production potential. Thurs (8/22) more low pressure is to be building in the Northern Gulf offering only generic weak high pressure at 1020 mbs west of Central CA producing north winds building to 25+ kts over Cape Mendocino and 20 kts over Central CA offering limited but building windswell production mainly for San Francisco down to Monterey Bay. For Hawaii east winds are to be 15 kts up to 1500 nmiles east of the Islands but mainly aimed south of the ISlands offering weak odds for sideband windswell production. Friday (8/23) a weak version of the usual summertime pressure gradient is to be holding over Cape Mendocino producing north winds at 25 kts over a fairly broad area and 20 kts north winds down to a point off Monterey Bay offering decent windswell generation potential down into Central CA. For Hawaii east fetch is to be 15 kts up to 1400 nmiles east of the Islands aimed well at the Islands offering good potential to generate windswell.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday (8/20) light northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts or less for North and Central CA but 15 kts from the northwest south of Monterey Bay. Wed (8/21) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for all of North and Central CA and 20-25 kts south of Monterey Bay. Thursday (8/22) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts for North CA and Central CA and 25+ kts for Cape Mendocino. Fri (8/23) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for all of North and Central CA except 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino. Sat (8/24) northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North and Central CA but 20-25 kts in pockets over Cape Mendocino. Sun (8/25) north winds to be 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and 5-10 kts south of there. No change on Monday (8/26) but with north winds building for Cape Mendocino to 25+ kts late. More of the same on Tues (8/27) but with north winds near 30 kts for north Cape Mendocino.
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).
On Tuesday (8/20) the influential southern branch of the jet was falling southeast under New Zealand down to 65S creating a ridge pushing over the Ross Ice Shelf then tracking east over the entirety of the South Pacific offering no support for gale development anywhere in the upper atmosphere across the South Pacific. But there were some signs of a building trough setting up over the Tasman Sea pushing over Tasmania with winds 130 kts. Over the next 72 hours starting Wed (8/21) the ridge under New Zealand is to continue pushing the jet south and east down at 63S and tracking further south that that in the Southeast Pacific offering no support for gale development. But the trough is to continue building north over the Tasman Sea being fed by 160 kt winds offering good support for gale development there relative to Fiji and continuing east into early Fri (8/23) before pinching off and fading over New Zealand later Fri. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (8/24) a solid ridge is to hold over the greater South Pacific and being reinforced by a new building ridge building over the Tasman Sea effectively suppressing support for gale development into Mon (8/26). There's some sign of the ridge starting to fade over the Southwest Pacific under New Zealand on Tues (8/27) but there's no clear signs of a trough building there either likely offering no direct support for gale development.
Swell from a gale that built in a good position south of New Zealand then pushed east is in the water and starting to hit Hawaii while moving towards California too (see Another New Zealand Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
Another New Zealand Gale
A meaningful gale started building southeast of New Zealand on Tuesday AM (8/13) with 45-50 kt south winds over a tiny area aimed northeast with a building area of 24 ft seas at 52S 179E aimed north-northeast. In the evening south winds at 50-55 kts over a small area with 39 ft seas aimed north at 53S 180W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (8/14) south to southwest winds were 40-45 kts with the fetch lifting north and seas 41 ft over a small area at 47S 174.5W. Fetch was fading in the evening from 45 kts from the southwest with seas 35 ft at 42S 167.5W aimed northeast over a modest sized area. On Thurs AM (8/15) a small area of 40-45 kt southwest wind were tracking east-northeast with 33 ft seas at 39S 152.5W. In the evening a broad area of 30-35 kt southwest winds were in the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific with peak seas 28 ft at 38.5S 146W aimed east-northeast. On Friday (8/16) west-to southwest winds were 35-40 kts over a modest area with 30 ft seas at 41S 146.5W aimed east-northeast over a tiny area. In the evening 35+ kt east fetch was tracking east with seas 30 ft at 38S 137W aimed east-northeast. On Sat (8/17) the gale was fading with a small area of 35 kt southwest winds tracking east with seas 26 ft at 43S 131W aimed east-northeast. In the evening this system was fading and moving out of the SCal swell window.
Hawaii: Swell building through the day on Tuesday (8/20) pushing 2.6 ft @ 17-18 secs (4.5 ft) at sunset. Swell holding steady on Wed (8/21) at 2.7 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (8/22) from 2.1 ft @ 14 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals on Fri (8/23) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on late on Wed (8/21) with period 20 secs and size not noticeable. Swell slowly building on Thurs (8/22) to 1.4 ft @ 18 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell building on Fri (8/23) to 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell continues on Sat (8/24) at 1.9 ft @ 15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Sun (8/25) from 1.5 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 212 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on late on Wed (8/21) with period 20 secs and size not noticeable. Swell slowly building on Thurs (8/22) to 1.8 ft @ 18 secs late (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell peaking on Fri (8/23) at 2.1 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell continues on Sat (8/24) at 1.8 ft @ 15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Sun (8/25) from 1.4 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 213 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no clearly defined swell producing weather systems are forecast. But the transition from Summer to Fall is to continue.
On Sat (8/24) generic northwest winds at 15-20 kts to be along the North and Central CA coast making for only minimal windswell production potential. For Hawaii the tropical system is to be 750 east-southeast of the Big Island with east fetch from north of there over the Hawaiian Islands offering decent windswell production potential. On Sun (8/25) high pressure is to be building over the Central Gulf generating north winds at 25-30 kts over North CA and 15kt north winds down to Pt Conception generating windswell there. For Hawaii east fetch associated with high pressure is to fade but theoretically swell from the tropical system is to be pushing west while the tropical system starts tracking northwest.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast. We suspect the summer swell generation season is nearly over.
Cool Water Continues Building in Coverage Along the Equator
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 is fading out, but not yet completely gone, especially in the atmosphere. Likewise it looks like a La Nina ocean temperature pattern is developing in the equatorial East Pacific, with cooler than normal waters tracking west on the equator. We assumed El Nino like momentum will hold for a while in the atmosphere will take a while to sense that the ocean temperature pattern has changed. But once it does, a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern will start to develop. that transition is expected in the late Nov-early Dec timeframe. Even so, moderation from the PDO might prevent La Nina from fully developing. Given all that, there is decent probability for a normal start to the Fall surf season (in the Northern Hemisphere) meaning a normal amount of number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in a normal levels of swell, with normal duration and normal period. But by mid-Dec 2019, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start fading and as a result, swell production should fade slightly as well. This pattern is expected to hold through April 2020.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (8/19) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific shrinking in coverage but still present over the Central Pacific with east winds moderate strength extending west to 160W then fading and turning light westerly from 165W and points west of there over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East and Central equatorial Pacific to 170W then turning moderately westerly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (8/20) weak west anomalies were on the dateline and over the core of the KWGA. The forecast is for westerly anomalies to slowly fade while retrograding west through 8/27 with weak east anomalies starting to build on the dateline 8/22 and also retrograding wes through the end of the model run over the core of the KWGA then. A mostly neutral MJO pattern is forecast over the next 7 days.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (8/19) A weak Inactive MJO pattern was indicated over the far Western KWGA today. The statistic model indicates it is to hold for 5 days, then start weakening, and gone at day 15. The dynamic model indicates the exact same thing.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (8/20) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was exceedingly weak in strength over Northern Africa and is to migrate steadily east to the Central and Eastern Indian Ocean 15 days out. The GEFS model suggests the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (8/20) This model depicts a broad but weak and decentralized Inactive Phase over the far West Pacific today with a neutral pattern over the Eastern Pacific. The Inactive Phase is to tracking east over the KWGA 8/30 then pushing east over Central America by 9/19. A modest Active Phase of the MJ is to develop over the West Pacific 9/19 tracking east moving over the Central Pacific at the end of the model run on 9/29.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/16) This model depicts no MJO signal present in the Pacific today but with modest west anomalies on the dateline. The forecast depicts these west anomalies holding solidly in 3 pulses through the end of the model run on 9/16.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/20) This model depicts a neutral MJO pattern over the KWGA today but with weak west anomalies near the dateline. The forecast has a dead neutral MJO signal holding from now through the end of the model run on 11/17. That said weak west anomalies holding in the core of the KWGA over that entire duration. The low pass filter changed on 7/25 and is holding today with a low pressure bias with 1 contour line in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. This single remaining contour line is to hold for the foreseeable future, with a second contour line develop 11/6 and holding till the end of the model run. If this pattern holds over the next few weeks, this would constitute a significant upgrade. This model indicates that a weak El Nino pattern is to maybe rebuild. That is not believable. Basically we are moving from a pattern biased towards El Nino to one biased towards ENSO neutral. No sign of La Nina is depicted per this model.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/20) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs over a decent size area but still retrograding west reaching east to only 180W while the 29 deg isotherm was steady at 169W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 159W today. The 24 deg isotherm previously pushed into Ecuador at 30 meters down, but retrograded on 7/11 from 107W to 121W today. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the West Pacific at +1 degs from the surface to 150 meters down (deepest on the dateline) and indicative of a possible stationary Kelvin Wave #5 there. But in the East Pacific only a shallow pocket of warm anomalies remained at 50-75 meters deep and not even +1 deg. Of more interest was a cool pocket at -4 degs down 100 meters at 120W and pushing towards the surface hard. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/16 indicates warm water from Westerly Wind Burst #5 has formed a small stationary Kelvin Wave under the Dateline with cool anomalies from 140W into Ecuador drawing up from depth to the surface. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/16) No positive anomalies were present anywhere on the equator. Negative anomalies were building west from Ecuador at -5 cms reaching to 170W with one pocket at -10 cms over the Galapagos strongly suggestive of La Nina.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (8/19) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate weak warm anomalies are present north of the equator from Central America west to 140W and then with broader coverage from 140W to the dateline but with a stream of cool waters along the coast of Chile up to Peru then streaming west on the equator off Ecuador over the Galapagos and out to 140W solidly suggestive of La Nina. And warm anomalies previously south of the equator in that region were all but gone east of 120W and very weak from 120W to 160W. At this time there is really no remaining signs of El Nino remaining in the East equatorial Pacific with La Nina developing there instead.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/19): A cooling trend/stream remained in-place pushing west mainly from 110W-150W on the equator but far weaker than days past. Pockets of warming water were along the equator from ecuador to 115W. In general the trend towards a cooler pattern in the equatorial Pacific is very and is showing no signs of fading.
Hi-res Overview: (8/19) A clear La Nina cool stream was pushing west starting with a broad bubble of cool water along Chile and Peru then streaming west off Ecuador to 150W. Warmer than normal water was straddling the equator from the remnants of El Nino, mainly north of the equator but all but gone south of the equator. But that unmistakable stream of cool water was running west on the equator from just off the Peruvian Coast and then solidly from the Galapagos west to 145W indicative of La Nina. El Nino appears to be in retreat and La Nina appears to be developing.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/20) Today's temps were steady today at -0.670 and have been pretty consistently negative since June 1.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/18) Today's temps were steady at -0.138 today. The trend has been generally downward since mid-June.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (8/15) The model indicates a cooling trend has set up with temps +0.05 degs in August and holding through Oct then falling through Dec to -0.20 degrees. On Jan 1 2020 temps are to start rebuilding reaching +0.50 degs by April 1. According to this model a neutral sea surface temperature pattern is forecast, neither El Nino nor La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.60 degs in June, and are to hold in the +0.70 range into November, then fading slightly to +0.65 in February 2020. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (8/20): The daily index was negative today at -13.90. The 30 day average was neutral at 0.15. The 90 day average was rising at -7.19, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was developing.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (April) +0.34, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. It is approaching El Nino territory but still indicted mostly ENSO neutral conditions.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table