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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Sunday, August 25, 2019 3:40 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
1.5 - California & 3.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 8/26 thru Sun 9/1

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

New Zealand Swell Fading in CA
Tasman Sea Swell Pushing Towards HI

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Sunday, August 25, 2019 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 2.9 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 9.0 secs from 163 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.9 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 3.4 ft @ 7.8 secs from 40 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 11.4 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 12.8 secs from 169 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 67.5 degs (46086). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.1 ft @ 13.4 secs from 206 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.4 ft @ 14.5 secs from 205 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.0 ft @ 13.3 secs from 194 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.8 ft @ 11.7 secs from 177 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.9 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 13.8 secs from 229 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was south at 2-4 kts. Water temp 54.1 degs (013) and 62.1 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (8/25) in North and Central CA locally generated northwest windswell producing waves at waist high or so and soft and a little warbled but mostly clean with no real wind in effect early. Protected breaks were barely breaking at thigh high on the rare sets and clean and soft. At Santa Cruz waves were waist to chest high on the sets and decently lined up when they came and clean with light fog early. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to maybe chest high on the better sets waves and a bit lined up but soft and mostly clean early. In North Orange Co waves were waist to chest high on the sets and pretty lined up if not nearly closed out pushing from the south and clean. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were chest high or so on many sets though occasionally head high and clean but with a little northerly warble running through it. North San Diego had surf at shoulder high and lined up if not closed out but clean. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was getting minimal swell with waves waist to maybe chest high on the sets and clean but slow. The East Shore was getting east windswell with waves chest high and chopped from moderate plus strength easterly-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (8/25) in California small New Zealand swell was fading out having been generated by a gale previously southeast of New Zealand Tues-Wed (8/14) with up to 40 ft seas over a tiny area aimed northeast migrating east to the Southeast Pacific through Sat (8/17) with seas slowly fading from 32 ft to 28 ft over that time period. Also small swell was radiating towards Hawaii from a modest gale that developed in the Tasman Sea targeting Fiji Tues-Fri (8/23) with 28-34 ft seas aimed north. Otherwise no obvious swell producing weather system are forecast for the next week in the Southern Pacific though a modest gale is forecast under New Zealand on Wed-Thurs (8/29) with up to 48 ft seas, but falling and aimed southeast at Antarctica. Perhaps two others are to follow behind, but also on the same southeast trajectory. In the North Pacific the models are teasing concerning a gale in the Northern Gulf next weekend producing 21 ft seas aimed east. Odds low of this occurring.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest is in the water.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

Windswell Outlook
On Sunday (8/25) high pressure was starting to build off the Pacific Northwest generating north winds building to 20-25 kts late off Cape Mendocino starting to generate some limited windswell down into North CA later. For Hawaii east fetch associated with high pressure is to be fading in coverage extending 600 nmiles east of the Islands early offering limited odds for windswell production along exposed east facing shores of all Islands. On Monday (8/26) a decent gradient is to be in place just off and north of Cape Mendocino producing north winds at 25+ kts but not reaching any further south of there limiting the odds for windswell production radiating south into Central CA. Small windswell expected. No east fetch of interest is forecast for Hawaii. On Tues (8/27) north winds are to be fading from 20 kts limited to a modest area off Cape Mendocino offering only low odds for windswell reaching down to Central CA. No fetch is forecast for Hawaii. By Wed (8/28) a slack wind pattern is forecast for both California and Hawaii offering no windswell generation potential. But low pressure is to be building north of Hawaii at 20-25 kts aimed directly at the Islands possibly generating windswell for the days beyond.

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
Tropical Storm Ivo was positioned 800 nmiles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico on Thurs (8/22) with winds 55 kts tracking northwest and forecast to intensify. In the evening Ivo held while tracking north-northwest with winds 55 kts 960 nmiles south of San Diego with seas 18 ft. Ivo continued north-northwest with winds at 50 kts (tropical storm force) in the evening positioned 780 nmiles south of San Diego. On Sat AM (8/24) Ivo was fading tracking north-northwest with winds 40 kts positioned 600 nmiles south of San Diego producing 15 ft seas and no longer offering meaningful swell production potential.

Southern CA: Small swell possible peaking Sun AM (8/25) at 3.3 ft @ 12 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 167 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
On Sunday (8/25) north winds to be 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino but only 5-10 kts south of there. No change on Monday (8/26) but with north winds for Cape Mendocino at 10 kts nearshore. Tues (8/27) light winds are forecast for all of California. No change forecast through Thurs (8/29). Fri (8/30) light winds continue except for south of Monterey Bay to Pt Conception with north winds 10-15 kts, building to 15-20 kts on Sat (8/31) and Sun (9/1).

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (8/25) the jetstream was well split with the influential southern branch of the jet tracking well south under New Zealand down at 62-66S creating a ridge pushing over the Ross Ice Shelf and tracking east on the heading over the entirety of the South Pacific offering no support for gale development anywhere in the upper atmosphere. Over the next 72 hours starting Mon (8/26) the ridge is to start slowly moderating but still present with the southern branch of the jet pushing southeast from 60S under New Zealand to 70S over the Southeast Pacific offering no support for gale development into Wed AM (8/28). Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs AM (8/29) the jet is to try and start lifting northeast slightly under New Zealand being fed by 100 kts southwest winds offering a hint of support for gale development there. But by Fri (8/30) winds to build from the west in that area at 150 kts at 62S and on the northern edge of the the Ross Ice Shelf limiting odds for meaningful support for swell producing fetch there. But the jetstream winds are to not be falling south and instead are to be just pushing eat and holding that position into Sun (9/1) while fading some offering limited support for gale development under New Zealand. A big ridge is to be holding over the Southeast Pacific that entire time actively suppressing support for gale development there.

Surface Analysis  
Swell from a gale that built in a good position south of New Zealand then pushed east is fading out in California (see Another New Zealand Gale below). Swell from a gale previously in the Tasman Sea is pushing towards Hawaii (see Tasman Sea Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

Another New Zealand Gale
A meaningful gale started building southeast of New Zealand on Tuesday AM (8/13) with 45-50 kt south winds over a tiny area aimed northeast with a building area of 24 ft seas at 52S 179E aimed north-northeast. In the evening south winds at 50-55 kts over a small area with 39 ft seas aimed north at 53S 180W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (8/14) south to southwest winds were 40-45 kts with the fetch lifting north and seas 41 ft over a small area at 47S 174.5W. Fetch was fading in the evening from 45 kts from the southwest with seas 35 ft at 42S 167.5W aimed northeast over a modest sized area. On Thurs AM (8/15) a small area of 40-45 kt southwest wind were tracking east-northeast with 33 ft seas at 39S 152.5W. In the evening a broad area of 30-35 kt southwest winds were in the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific with peak seas 28 ft at 38.5S 146W aimed east-northeast. On Friday (8/16) west-to southwest winds were 35-40 kts over a modest area with 30 ft seas at 41S 146.5W aimed east-northeast over a tiny area. In the evening 35+ kt east fetch was tracking east with seas 30 ft at 38S 137W aimed east-northeast. On Sat (8/17) the gale was fading with a small area of 35 kt southwest winds tracking east with seas 26 ft at 43S 131W aimed east-northeast. In the evening this system was fading and moving out of the SCal swell window.

Southern CA: Swell fading Sun (8/25) from 1.5 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 212 degrees

North CA: Swell fading Sun (8/25) from 1.4 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 213 degrees

 

Tasman Sea Gale
On Tuesday AM (8/20) a gale started building just south of Tasmania producing 40 kt southwest winds and seas to 35 ft at 46S 148E aimed northeast. In the evening 35-40 kt southwest winds were building north into the Tasman Sea proper with 34 ft seas 46S 151E targeting Fiji. On Wed AM (8/21) 30-35 kt southwest winds were almost filling the Tasman Sea with 30-36 ft seas at 45S 155.5E aimed northeast targeting Fiji. In the evening secondary fetch built at 35-40 kts filling the western Tasman Sea aimed north with 28-30 ft seas at 42S 155E aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (8/22) south fetch at 35 kts was filling the Tasman Sea with seas 28-30 ft slid at 32S-42S and 160E aimed north. Fetch was fading fast in the evening at 30 kts with seas fading from 26-28 ft at 39S 164E aimed north. The gale fading from there.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Tues (8/27) building to 2.3 ft @ 18 secs late (4.0 ft). Swell building overnight and continuing up on Wed (8/28) pushing 3.2 ft @ 16-17 secs late afternoon (5.0-5.5 ft). Swell fading some on Thurs (8/29) fading from 3.1 ft @ 15-16 secs early (4.5-5.0 ft). Swell fading Fri (8/30) from 2.3 ft @ 15 secs (3.5 ft). Dribbles Sat AM (8/31) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 215 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no clearly defined swell producing weather systems are forecast. But the transition from Summer to Fall is to continue. And the GFS model hints at low pressure building solidly in the Gulf of Alaska on Sat (8/31) producing a tiny area of 21 ft seas at 50N 165W targeting California and the Pacific Northwest. Something to monitor.

Windswell Outlook
On Thursday (8/29) no fetch of interest capable of generating windswell is forecast for California. For Hawaii low pressure is to hold 1200 nmiles north of the Islands producing 20-25 kts north winds targeting the Islands directly producing more windswell pushing south. Friday (8/30) no fetch of interest is forecast for California. For Hawaii the low is to fade out early producing only 20 kts north winds and gone by sunset. Windswell radiating south. Saturday and Sunday (8/25) no windswell producing fetch is forecast for California or Hawaii.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast. We suspect the summer swell generation season is nearly over.

A storm is forecast developing just south of New Zealand on Wed AM (8/28) with 55 kts west winds over a modest sized fetch area and seas building from 39 ft aimed east to southeast at 59S 174E. In the evening 55 kt west winds are forecast over a small area but the core of the gale is to be falling southeast with seas to 47 ft at 61S 177W aimed east to southeast. On Thurs AM (8/29) fetch is to be fading from 45 kts from the west with the core of the gale tracking east with seas fading from 48 ft at 62S 166.5W aimed east and nearly impacting Antarctic Ice. The gale is to fade and track southeast from there. Doubtful much if any swell will be radiating northeast even is this system does form as forecast.

A similar gale is forecast developing on Sat AM (8/31) just off the edge of the Ross Ice shelf producing a tiny area of 40 ft seas at 62S 169W and also impacting only Ice there.

And maybe another gale to follow under New Zealand tracking east with 45 ft seas on Sun (9/1).

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Cool Equatorial Water Building West to Dateline

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 is fading out, but not yet completely gone, especially in the atmosphere. Likewise it looks like a La Nina ocean temperature pattern is developing in the equatorial East Pacific, with cooler than normal waters tracking west on the equator. We assumed El Nino like momentum will hold for a while in the atmosphere will take a while to sense that the ocean temperature pattern has changed. But once it does, a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern will start to develop. that transition is expected in the late Nov-early Dec timeframe. Even so, moderation from the PDO might prevent La Nina from fully developing. Given all that, there is decent probability for a normal start to the Fall surf season (in the Northern Hemisphere) meaning a normal amount of number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in a normal levels of swell, with normal duration and normal period. But by mid-Dec 2019, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start fading and as a result, swell production should fade slightly as well. This pattern is expected to hold through April 2020.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (8/24) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific shrinking in coverage but still present over the Central Pacific with east winds at moderate strength extending west to the dateline then fading and turning light westerly from 160E and points west of there over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East and Central equatorial Pacific to 170E then turning modestly westerly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (8/25) a mixed pattern of weak east and west anomalies were filling the KWGA with west anomalies a bit more prevalent. The forecast is for this pattern is to hold for the coming week with no clear change forecast through the end of the model run on 9/1. A neutral MJO pattern is forecast over the next 7 days.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (8/24) A neutral MJO pattern was in control of the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates it is to hold for the next 15 days. The dynamic model indicates a neutral pattern holding through the 15 days model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (8/25) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was exceedingly weak in strength in the Eastern Indian Ocean and is to migrate slowly east to the Maritime Continent 15 days out and still very weak. The GEFS model suggests the Active Phase migrating to the Maritime Continent and exceedingly weak at day 15 of the model run.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (8/25) This model depicts a broad but decentralized Inactive Phase moving over Central America today with a neutral pattern over the Central Pacific. A weak Active Phase of the MJO is to develop over the West Pacific 9/14 tracking east moving over the Central Pacific at the end of the model run on 10/4.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/24) This model depicts no MJO signal present in the Pacific today but with modest west anomalies on the dateline. The forecast depicts these west anomalies building in coverage completely filling the KWGA by 8/28 and holding solidly through the end of the model run on 9/21.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/25) This model depicts a neutral MJO pattern over the KWGA today but with weak west anomalies near the dateline. The forecast has a dead neutral MJO signal holding from now through 9/10 when a very weak Active MJO develops holding through 10/1. A weak Inactive Phase is to follow 10/2 through 10/12 followed by a weak Active Phase 10/14-10/28 followed by a weak Inactive Phase on 10/28 through the end of the model run on 11/22. During that entire period weak west anomalies are to hold in the core of the KWGA. The low pass filter changed on 7/25 and is holding today with a low pressure bias with 1 contour line in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. This single remaining contour line is to hold for the foreseeable future, with a second contour line developing 10/28 and holding till the end of the model run. If this pattern holds into early Fall it would constitute a significant upgrade. This model indicates that a weak El Nino pattern is to maybe rebuild. That is not believable. Basically we are moving from a pattern biased towards El Nino to one biased towards ENSO neutral. No sign of La Nina is depicted per this model.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/25) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs over a decent size area reaching east to only 180W while the 29 deg isotherm was retrograding to 171W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 160W today. The 24 deg isotherm previously pushed into Ecuador at 30 meters down, but retrograded on 7/11 from 107W to 123W today. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the West Pacific at +1 degs from the surface to 150 meters down (deepest on the dateline) and indicative of a possible stationary Kelvin Wave #5 there reaching east to 150W. East of there in the East Pacific NO warm anomalies remained with a cool pocket with a core at -4 degs down 100 meters at 120W and pushing towards the surface hard. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/21 indicates warm water from Westerly Wind Burst #5 has formed a small stationary Kelvin Wave under the Dateline with cool anomalies from 140W into Ecuador drawing up from depth to the surface. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/21) A small area of weak positive anomalies were on the dateline from 165E to 170W. Negative anomalies were building west from Ecuador at -5 cms reaching to 150W with one pocket at -10 cms near 125W strongly suggestive of La Nina.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (8/24) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate weak warm anomalies are present north of the equator from Central America west to 140W and shrinking in coverage and then with broader coverage west of 140W to the dateline. Of more interest was a pool of cool waters along the coasts of Chile up to Peru then streaming west on the equator off Ecuador over the Galapagos and out to 140W solidly suggestive of La Nina. But that stream starting weakening 8/20 and holds today as compared to days past. Warm anomalies south of the equator are growing today from just of Peru east to 140W centered on 10S. There had been a steady push towards the evaporation of El Nino in the East equatorial Pacific with La Nina developing there. But today, that trend appears to have started to reverse itself, at least since 8/20. But we suspect this is a short lived trend.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/24): A mixed trend has set up on the equator from just off Ecuador to 140W with interspersed pockets of cooling and warming , but with a trend towards cooling from 140W to 180W. In general the trend towards a cooler pattern in the equatorial Pacific had been evident, and continues today, not building more to the west.
Hi-res Overview: (8/24) A clear La Nina cool stream was pushing west starting with a broad bubble of cool water along Chile and Peru then streaming west off Ecuador to 170W. Warmer than normal water was straddling the equator from the remnants of El Nino, mainly north of the equator but all but gone south of the equator. But that unmistakable stream of cool water was running west on the equator from just off the Peruvian Coast and then solidly from the Galapagos west to 145W indicative of La Nina. El Nino appears to be in retreat and La Nina appears to be developing.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/25) Today's temps were rising some today at -0.044, but have been pretty consistently negative since June 1.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(8/25) Today's temps were falling at -0.340 today. The trend has been generally downward since mid-June.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (8/15) The model indicates a cooling trend has set up with temps +0.05 degs in August and holding through Oct then falling through Dec to -0.20 degrees. On Jan 1 2020 temps are to start rebuilding reaching +0.50 degs by April 1. According to this model a neutral sea surface temperature pattern is forecast, neither El Nino nor La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.60 degs in June, and are to hold in the +0.70 range into November, then fading slightly to +0.65 in February 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (8/25): The daily index was negative today at -5.28. The 30 day average was negative at -0.40. The 90 day average was rising at -6.33, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was developing.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (April) +0.34, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. It is approaching El Nino territory but still indicted mostly ENSO neutral conditions.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (8/18):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0Dtl4gnggE&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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