Tuesday, August 25, 2020
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 3.8 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 3.1 ft @ 12.8 secs from 177 degrees.
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 2.3 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 6.4 secs from 37 degrees. Water temp 80.8 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.5 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 1.1 ft @ 13.9 secs from 178 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 8-12 kts. Water temperature 71.1 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.5 ft @ 8.4 secs from 296 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.7 ft @ 9.5 secs from 215 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.2 ft @ 13.5 secs from 209 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 1.5 ft @ 9.8 secs from 224 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 3.9 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 8.0 secs from 310 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was southeast at 4 kts. Water temp 52.9 degs (013), 59.4 degs (SF Bar) and 61.0 degs (042).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Tuesday (8/25) in North and Central CA local northwest windswell was producing waves to maybe waist high and reasonably lined up but warbled and mushed with some surface lump but with light to near calm wind and foggy. Protected breaks were thigh high and very weak and soft but clean and foggy. At Santa Cruz surf was flat to thigh high and clean and soft and inconsistent with low overcast. In Southern California/Ventura windswell was producing waves from the northwest up to waist high and clean but soft. Central Orange County had set waves at waist to chest high on the sets and pretty textured early and weak and formless. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves to head high and lined up but pretty trashed from northwest winds and not particularly good. North San Diego had sets to maybe waist high and lightly textured from northwest winds and soft and crumbled. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was getting better than expected New Zealand swell with waves at chest high on occasion and clean and lined up when they came but weaker and slow. The East Shore was getting no rideable windswell and almost chopped from modest easterly trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Tuesday (8/25) minimal locally generated windswell was hitting North and Central CA. There was some southern hemi swell pushing north and expected to arrive in CA today originating from a gale that developed south of New Zealand on Fri (8/14) producing 27-28 ft seas aimed northeast for 12 hours. And behind that one more weak gale tracked east through the South Central Pacific on Tues-Wed (8/19) producing up to 32 ft seas aimed due east. Tiny swell from it is fading in Hawaii and bound for CA. Beyond the models are suggesting a gale developing southeast of New Zealand on Sat-Sun (8/30) producing up to 44 ft seas aimed east-northeast. And another weak one is to follow right behind Mon-Tues (9/1) producing 33 ft seas aimed east then rebuilding in the Central South Pacific later on Tues (9/1) producing up to 38 ft seas aimed east. So there is theoretically some hope. And also on Sun (8/30) there's even a suggestion of some sort of weather system developing in the Northern Gulf. We'll monitor this situation.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Tuesday (8/25) no swell of interest was in the water.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical system are being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday (8/25) a weak pressure gradient was holding over Cape Mendocino producing north winds at 20 kts but with light winds south of there early pretty much holding that way all day. Limited windswell production possible. Wed (8/26) the gradient is to start building with north winds at 20-25 kts over a decent area from Bodega Bay northward and 10-15 kt north winds south of there to Pt Conception early and building to 15-20 kts later. Windswell production potential on the increase. More of the same on Thurs (8/27) with north winds 25-30 kts over Cape Mendocino early and 15-20 kts south of there to Pt Conception holding through the day. Windswell building. Fri (8/28) the gradient is to hold producing north winds at 25-30 kts over the Cape Mendocino area and well off of Monterey Bay with a light eddy flow (south winds) nearshore from Bodega Bay to Pt Conception holding all day. Windswell holding. Sat (8/29) north winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for the Cape Mendocino area and reaching up to Oregon and south to a point well off Monterey Bay but with a light eddy flow (south winds) nearshore from Bodega Bay southward holding all day. Windswell holding. On Sun (8/30) north winds are forecast at 30-35 kts for Cape Mendocino with a light eddy flow south of Pt Arena. Windswell holding. Mon (8/31) north winds to continue just off Cape Mendocino at 30-35 kts but with the eddy flow from south of Cape Mendocino south to Pt Conception all day. Windswell production starting to fade. On Tues (9/1) northeast winds are forecast at 25-30 kts off Cape Mendocino with a light eddy flow over almost all of North and Central CA nearshore waters. Windswell production fading.
Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches respectively. Freezing level 14,000 ft or higher for the week.
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
On Tuesday (8/25) the jetstream was well split over the width of the South Pacific with the southern branch pushing east well south of New Zealand falling down to 70S and well inland over Antarctic Ice traversing the width of the South Pacific in that position offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the ridge is to continue pushing south and into Antarctica proper through Wednesday (8/26) then dissipating on Thurs (8/27) with no real jetstream flow indicated offering no support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (8/29) the southern branch of the jet is to reappear pushing just under New Zealand up at 50S being fed by 140 kts winds forming a trough on it's leading edge and tracking east into Sun (8/30) offering some support for gale development and then tracking over the Central South Pacific into Tues (9/1) and rebuilding some with 120 kt west winds again offering some support for gale development. But back to the west later Mon (9/31) a new very weak ridge is to start building under New Zealand pushing south to 67S offering no support for gale development and starting to push to the east.
On Tuesday (8/25) swell from a gale that developed southeast of New Zealand was poised to arrive in California (see Another New Zealand Gale below). And a final system developed southeast of New Zealand (see Final New Zealand Gale below). One more gale followed that but only tiny swell is expected (see South Central Pacific Gale below). Beyond no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.
Another New Zealand Gale
On Fri AM (8/14) a small gale formed southeast of New Zealand lifting northeast producing a modest sized area of 40 kt southwest winds producing 28 ft seas aimed northeast at 56S 170E. In the evening southwest winds were 35 kts lifting northeast producing 26 ft seas at 52S 179W aimed northeast. Fetch dissipated after that on Sat AM (8/15) offer no more swell production potential.
Southern CA: Expect swell to arrive weakly on Tues (8/25) building to 1.3 ft @ 15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell dissipating and merging with the next swell after that (see below). Swell Direction: 213 degrees
North CA: Expect swell to arrive weakly on Tues (8/25) building to 1.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0 ft). Swell dissipating and merging with the next after that (see below). Swell Direction: 212 degrees
Final New Zealand Gale
On Sat PM (8/16) a gale developed southeast of New Zealand producing southwest winds at 40 kts with seas building from 23 ft at 57S 180W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (8/17) fetch continued lifting northeast at 40-45 kts with seas 28 ft over a tiny area at 52S 170W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale tracked well northeast with winds 45 kts from the southwest with seas 30 ft over a small area at 49.5S 160W aimed northeast. Fetch faded Mon AM (8/17) from 35 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 29 ft at 47S 153W aimed northeast. The gale dissipate in the evening with seas fading from 29 ft at 48S 147.5W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.
Hawaii: Swell fading Tues (8/25) from 1.5 ft @ 13 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 188 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival late on Tues (8/25) pushing 1.0 ft @ 17 secs (1.5 ft). Swell building on Wed (8/26) to 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (8/27) from 1.4 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft).Swell Direction: 198 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival late on Tues (8/25) pushing 1.0 ft @ 17 secs (1.5 ft). Swell building on Wed (8/26) to 1.7 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (8/27) from 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft).Swell Direction: 198 degrees
South Central Pacific Gale
Starting Tues AM (8/18) a gale developed well southeast of New Zealand producing a broad area of northwest winds at 45 kts with seas building to 29 ft at 58.5S 176.5W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to push quickly east and build in coverage at 40-45 kts from the west-northwest with 31 ft seas at 57.5S 162W aimed east-southeast. Fetch moved rapidly east on Wed AM (8/19) over a building area at 40-45 kts with seas 34 ft down at 62S 131W aimed east. The gale pushed east with west winds 35 kt over a large area and seas 31 ft over a broad area aimed east at 58.5S 125W aimed northeast. The gale pushed east of the Southern CA swell window after that. Something to monitor.
Hawaii: No swell expected to result.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (8/27) pushing 1.3 ft @ 18 secs late (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building on Fri (8/28) pushing 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Sat (8/29) from 1.5 ft @ 15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 194 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (8/27) pushing 1.0 ft @ 18-19 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell building on Fri (8/28) pushing 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Sat (8/29) from 1.3 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 193 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
Beyond 72 hours a tiny gale is forecast developing just south of New Zealand on Fri PM (8/28) producing 40 kt southwest winds ands starting to get traction on the oceans surface. By Sat AM (8/29) the gale is to build producing a decent sized fetch of 45-50 kt southwest winds with seas building to 35 ft at 53.5S 175.5E aimed east-northeast. In the evening the gale is to hold while tracking east producing 45-50 kt southwest winds with seas building to 44 ft at 52.5S 174W aimed east-northeast. On Sun AM (8/30) the gael is to track east-northeast with 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas 39 ft at 50.5S 164W aimed east-northeast. The gale is to be gone in the evening with winds down to 30-35 kts and seas fading from 31 ft at 50S 154W aimed east-northeast. Something to monitor.
On Sun PM (8/30) another small gale is forecast just south of New Zealand producing a tiny area of 45 kt west winds with seas 31 ft at 50S 172E aimed east. The gale is to push east on Mon AM (8/31) producing 40+ kt west winds and seas 33 ft over a small area aimed east at 52S 173W. In the evening fetch is to build to 45 kts with seas building to 33 ft at 54.5S 158W aimed east. On Tues AM (9/1) fetch is to build to 50 kts with seas 39 ft at 55S 148W aimed east. Something to monitor but not believable yet.
Solid Cooling Trend Building over Equatorial Pacific
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool pushed east and by May subsurface cool waters erupted off Ecuador, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, holding into July 2020.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2020/2021 = 3.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020 only to return stronger in the Summer of 2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. But at this time that does not appear likely. Given all that, for the 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020/21, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the Spring of 2021.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (8/24) 5 day average winds were solid from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and then starting to build from the east moderate if not more over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial fading to neutral over the Central Pacific turning light westerly over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, so they lag what is happening today by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (8/25) moderate east anomalies were building in over all the KWGA today with weak to moderate west anomalies filling the far East Pacific. The forecast calls for east anomalies building in coverage and strength over the KWGA filling it at the end of the forecast period (on 9/1) and near strong strength. Moderate west anomalies are to be fading in the East equatorial Pacific and gone by the end of the model run. Support for energy transfer into the jet is fading and will continue on that trend for at least the next week.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (8/24) A moderate Inactive MJO was in control of the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Inactive Phase is to build to strong status filling the KWGA on day 5 of the model run holding in strength on day 10 and continuing through day 15. The dynamic model suggests the same thing but rapidly fading to weak status on day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (8/25) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was moderate over the Gulf of Mexico today and is to steadily track east over the Atlantic and into the East Indian Ocean 15 days out and weak at that time. The GEFS model suggests the Active Phase is to building to moderate status while tracking over the Atlantic the next 3 days then weakening while pushing into and over the Maritime Continent 2 weeks out and very weak at that time.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (8/24) This model depicts a strong Inactive MJO was filling the KWGA and all of the Pacific today. The forecast depicts the Inactive Phase is to move east through the Central equatorial Pacific and into Central America on 9/8 while holding solid strength with remnants lingering beyond. A modest Active MJO is to follow pushing into the far West Pacific 8/13 moving to the Central Pacific through the end of the model run on 10/3.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/24) This model depicts an Active MJO was fading while moving east over the Central and East Pacific today and gone in the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Inactive Phase of the MJO was building in the far west KWGA today and is to take over the KWGA by 8/27 filling it through the end of the model run on 9/21 with moderate to strong east anomalies in control. Overall a long run of easterly anomalies are to again take over the KWGA. Whatever window there was for the MJO to support swell production, it is gone now.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/24 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts a building strong Inactive MJO building over the KWGA today and is to traverse the Pacific through 9/23 with another bout of strong east anomalies firmly controlling the KWGA and filling the whole equatorial Pacific and strong over the East Pacific during that window. A strong Active Phase of the MJO is forecast to follow 9/14 through 10/25 with west anomalies filling the western 75% of the KWGA while east anomalies remain strong and in control east of there. A weak Inactive Phase is to follow 10/12-10/31 but with weak west anomalies filling the KWGA. Another modest Active MJO is to follow 11/7 through the end of the model run on 11/22 producing strong west anomalies filling the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is in control over the dateline today reaching east to a point south of California and is to hold in coverage through the end of the model run with a second contour setting up on 9/9 on the dateline holding through the end of the model run. There's some sense the high pressure bias is to be slowly moving east at the end of the model run. A single contour low pressure bias is building weakly over the Indian Ocean today and is to build in coverage through the end of the model run while its eastern periphery eases east to 150E and over the far West KWGA at the end of the model run. East anomalies that have been previously solid in the Indian Ocean for over a year are migrating east into the West Pacific and should track east becoming stationary over the Central Pacific early Sept and holding for the foreseeable future. The trend is turning towards La Nina.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/22) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was gone. The 29 deg isotherm was moving east to 175E today. The 28 deg isotherm line was tracking east at 172W today. The 24 deg isotherm was backtracking to 138W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies 0-1 deg C were fading in the West Pacific reaching east to barely 170W. There were no warm anomalies east of there into Ecuador. A river of generally cooler temps were tracking west to east down at 150m traversing the width of the equatorial Pacific. Embedded in that was a large pocket of cooler anomalies at -2 degs filling the area east of 170W and bubbling up to the surface between 90W to 155W. It appears a conveyor belt of cool water (Cold water Kelvin Waves) was in effect. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/21 indicates the cool water bubble at depth was far stronger and larger erupting to the surface from the dateline eastward to Ecuador. Almost no warm water was below the surface or at the surface east of the dateline. In effect a river of cool water was at depth under the entirety of the equatorial Pacific 150m tracking east. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/21) Negative anomalies greater than -5 cms with a large embedded area at -10 cms were building over the Central equatorial Pacific between 110W to 155W. Interestingly negative anomalies were dissolving along Ecuador and down into Peru but still covering a large area at -5 cms there and reaching north up to Baja and into Southern CA. No positive anomalies were over the equatorial Pacific, except west of 160E.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (8/24) The latest images indicate cold water was building from just off the coast of Ecuador west on the equator to the dateline and consistent in density over that area. Cool water was also holding along Peru tracking northwest to Ecuador. This is now looking like a well developing version of La Nina. Cool anomalies along the coast of Chile up into Peru appearing to be feeding the cool stream. Warm water was off Central America reaching west to the dateline but only north of the equator, remnants of a fading El Nino like pattern. Overall the cool pool on the equator was unmistakable and starting to show signs of rebuilding after previously being stalled.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/24): A clear stream of cooling water was pushing west from the Galapagos west to 165W. Small pockets of warming were interspersed but rapidly fading. The short term trend is looking like development of a large scale cooling trend centered in the Central Equatorial Pacific.
Hi-res Overview: (8/24) A stream of consistent cool water is well entrenched from Peru up to Ecuador then building from there to the dateline. A clear La Nina signal is depicted.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/25) Today's temps were falling some at -1.819 degs after previously reaching a low of -2.138 on 8/13. The trend has been steadily downward since March 26. Overall the trend is towards cooling after having previously been in a warmer range at +0.6 degs between 2/25-3/26.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/25) Temps were falling today down to -0.628, the lowest in a long time. Before that temps were stable between 6/27-7/25 at near 0.0. And before that temps were rising after bottoming out down at -0.595 on 5/27. Overall the trend was warming but now appears to be in a steep decline.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (8/25) Actual temperatures were in the +0.65 deg range early this year through March, then started falling down to -0.20 in late-May then stabilized near neutral into late June. Then they began falling in July down to -0.6 degs early Aug. The forecast depicts a steady downward trend from here reaching down to -1.40 degs in late Oct. After that temps to start rebuilding steadily up to +0.0 degs in late April. We think the dynamic models might be overstating the magnitude of the coming cooling trend for the equatorial Pacific, but maybe not too much.
IRI Consensus Plume: The August 21, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at -0.52 degs today, and are to fall in early Nov to -0.60 degs then moderating and starting to rise some to -0.35 by Jan 2021 and then neutral by March. The low outlier is a dynamic models (NASA GMAO). But a good plethora of models are now suggesting a developing modest La Nina. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (8/25): The daily index was negative today at -3.22. The 30 day average was falling slightly at +5.47. The 90 day average was rising slightly to 1.12, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was in control and trending perhaps to La Nina. This index is a lagging indicator.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): June -0.67, May -0.46, April 2020 -0.69, March -0.09, Feb +0.65, Jan +0.42, This index was steady positive Aug 2018 through Feb 2020, and now is steady negative, but only weakly so.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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