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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, October 8, 2020 3:18 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.2 - California & 2.1 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 10/5 thru Sun 10/11

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Small SHemi Swell Moving to CA
NPac Quiet

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Thursday, October 8, 2020 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 4.1 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.8 ft @ 14.1 secs from 186 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 5.4 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 4.6 ft @ 10.3 secs from 343 degrees. Water temp 81.0 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.2 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 9.8 secs from 201 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southeast at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 70.5 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.5 ft @ 9.4 secs from 268 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.0 ft @ 9.5 secs from 228 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.4 ft @ 8.5 secs from 219 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 1.4 ft @ 8.7 secs from 231 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.6 ft @ 10.8 secs with swell 4.1 ft @ 10.3 secs from 288 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 4-6 kts. Water temp 53.4 degs (013), 59.0 degs (SF Bar) and 57.2 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

 
Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (10/8) in North and Central CA local northwest windswell was producing waves at waist to maybe chest high and fairly clean but with a little intermixed warble and soft with no wind early. Protected breaks were waist high and weak and soft but clean. At Santa Cruz occasional sets were thigh to waist high and weak but clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat to thigh high and clean. Central Orange County was flat to knee high and clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at thigh to maybe waist high on the peak and lightly textured. North San Diego had sets at knee high and heavily textured early. Hawaii's North Shore was shoulder high or so and lined up and clean and soft. The South Shore was getting more southern hemi swell with waves head high and lined up and peeling when it came and with clean conditions. The East Shore was getting north wrap around windswell with waves chest high and heavily textured early from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (10/8) no swell of interest was hitting California. Hawaii was still getting swell from one last small system that developed under New Zealand Mon-Tues (9/29) producing up to 39 ft seas over a tiny area aimed well north. Minimal energy is starting to show at the buoys in CA. Beyond a weak gale tracked under New Zealand Mon-Wed (10/7) producing 28-30 ft seas aimed east-northeast. And maybe another system is to form in the far Southeast Pacific Fri-Sat (10/10) producing 34 ft seas aimed east. And maybe one more to follow even more to the east with up 46 ft seas aimed east-northeast. But the North Pacific is taking a break. Maybe a weak weather system is to produce 15-18 ft seas in the Western Gulf Thurs-Sat (10/10) but nothing more.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (10/6) the jet was consolidated lifting northeast off Japan then tracking due east on the 48N latitude line just south of the Aleutians with winds to 190 kts reaching to the Central Gulf then fading east of there. There was no troughs indicated offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours a broad but soft trough is to develop in the Eastern Gulf on Fri-Sat (10/10) offering some weak support for gale development then pushing inland over the Pacific Northwest. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (10/12) the jet is to start lifting hard north in the far Western Pacific lifting almost north of the Bering Sea but then falling hard south over the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska digging out a small trough there then getting more pronounced on Wed-Thurs (10/15) being fed by 140 kt winds but also getting a bit pinched offering some support for gale development. A solid ridge is to be over the Eastern Gulf with the jet pushing up and over the North British Columbia coast. Winds energy is to be building over Japan on Thurs (10/15) to 150 kts perhaps offering hope for the future.


Surface Analysis
On Thursday (10/8) no swell of interest was hitting California.

Over the next 72 hours a low pressure system is forecast tracking east through the Northern Gulf of Alaska Thurs-Fri (10/9) but only producing 20-25 kt west winds winds seas initially 20 ft fading to 14 ft aimed east. Maybe some windswell to result for the US West Coast (see QuikCASTs for details).

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical weather system of interest were being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday (10/8) calm to light northwest winds at 5-10 kts were in control early for North and Central CA and are to prevail over the state all day with low pressure approaching the state from the west. On Fri (10/9) light southeast winds are forecast for North CA early and calm winds for Central CA early building to south winds at 5-10 kts for North CA later and north winds 5-10 kts for Central CA later. Sat (10/10) light west winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for all of North and Central CA all day. Light rain developing early for Cape Mendocino holding through the day. No rain south of there. Sun (10/11) high pressure is to build in with north winds 20 kts for all of North and Central CA early holding all day. No precip is forecast for the state. Monday (10/12) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts early for North Ca south of Pt Arena and Central CA holding all day of not build north of Cape Mendocino later. On Tuesday (10/13) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for all of North and Central CA all day. No change Wed (10/14) with winds building to 25 kts later for North CA. Thurs (10/15) north winds to be 25-30 kt for North CA north of Bodega Bay early and northwest 5 kts south of there holding all day.

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, 0 inches respectively. Freezing level right at 12,500 ft through 10/10 then rising to 13,000 ft and holding through the end of the model run.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Thursday (10/8) swell from a gale that developed under New Zealand was still hitting Hawaii and radiating towards CA (see New Zealand Gale below). Another weaker gale formed behind it under New Zealand tracking east (see Weak New Zealand gale below).

Over the next 72 hours there's hints of a gale developing in the Southeast Pacific on Fri PM (10/9) producing 45 kt southwest winds over a tiny area with seas building to 32 ft at 52S 138W aimed east-northeast. On Sat AM (10/10) 40-45 kt southwest winds to track east with 34 ft seas at 51.5S 127.5W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to fade and no seas of interest remaining. Low odds for small swell developing. Something to monitor.

 

New Zealand Gale
A gale developed south of New Zealand on Sun AM (9/27) producing 45-55 kt south winds and seas starting to develop. In the evening 45-50 kt south winds were just off the north edge of the Ross Ice Shelf pushing north producing seas building to 39 ft at 57S 172E aimed north. On Mon AM (9/28) south winds were fading from 40 kts holding in place and seas 28-30 ft near 55S 178E aimed north. Fetch faded some in the evening at 35 kts from the south with 25 ft seas fading at 55S 172E aimed north. By Tues AM (9/29) fetch was gone. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Swell fading Thurs (10/8) from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

Southern CA: Swell arrival on Thurs (10/8) building to 1.2 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.0 ft). Swell building some on Fri (10/9) pushing 1.5 ft @ 15 secs mid-day (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell continues on Sat (10/10) at 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft) early. Swell to be gone after that. Swell Direction: 215 degrees

North CA: Swell arrival on Thurs (10/8) building to 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.0 ft). Swell building some on Fri (10/9) pushing 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell continues on Sat (10/10) at 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) early. Swell is to be gone after that. Swell Direction: 214 degrees

 

Weak New Zealand Gale
A gale developed under New Zealand Mon PM (10/5) producing 40 kt west-southwest winds with seas building to 28 ft at 53.5S 170E aimed east-northeast. On Tues AM (10/6) the gale moved with with 35-40 kt west winds and seas 29 ft at 50.5S 173.5W aimed east. In the evening fetch started building over the Southeast Pacific at 40 kts with seas 27 ft over a small area at 53.5S 150.5W aimed east. On Wed AM (10/7) a small area of 40 kt west winds were pushing east with seas 31 ft at 52.5S 138W aimed east. Fetch was fading and falling southeast after that. Small swell is possible.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Tues (10/13) pushing 1.1 ft @ 16-17 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell fading on Wed (10/14) from 1.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5 ft) Swell Direction: 195 degrees

South CA: Expect swell arrival late on Wed (10/14) with swell building to 1.0 ft @ 18 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell peaking on Thurs (10/15) pushing 1.4 ft @ 16-17 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 203 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (10/15) pushing 1.3 ft @ 17 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 202 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the model indicate a stronger storm is forecast developing in the far Southeast Pacific later Mon (10/12) and building on Tues (10/13) with up to 46 ft seas on the very eastern edge of the Southern CA swell window. Something to monitor.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina Pulsing

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool pushed east and by May subsurface cool waters erupted off Ecuador, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, holding into July 2020.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2020/2021 = 3.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020 only to return stronger in the Summer of 2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. But at this time that does not appear likely. Given all that, for the 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020/21, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the Spring of 2021.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/7) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and strong from the east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial continuing over the Central Pacific and then modest to moderate easterly over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, so they lag what is happening today by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (10/8) moderate to strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA today and extending east to a point south of California on the equator. The forecast calls for east anomalies building to strong status filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 10/15 and holding over the Central Pacific to a point south of California. Support for energy transfer into the jet is weak and is expected to only weaken more as east anomalies dig in.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (10/7) A moderate Active MJO signal was over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Active MJO pattern is to hold unchanged on days 5, 10, and day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests the same thing.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (10/8) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak to modest over the East Maritime Continent today and is to collapse while tracking east into the West Pacific and near nothing at day 15. The GEFS model suggests the MJO is to hold stationary over the next 15 days but strengthening steadily to moderate strength the last day of the model run.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (10/7) This model depicts a weak Active MJO was over the West Pacific today. The weak Active pattern is to push east and into Central America on 11/1 having almost no obvious benefit to storm production. A very weak Inactive Phase of the MJO is to push east over the KWGA on 11/1 tracking to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 11/16. At that time a weak Active signal is suggested over the far West Pacific.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/7) This model depicts no coherent MJO signal today but with moderate east anomalies filling the KWGA and all of the equatorial Pacific. The forecast indicates strong east anomalies developing 10/9-10/15. A weak Active MJO is forecast traversing the KWGA 10/18-10/30 but east anomalies continue, through weaker. East anomalies are to build gain to strong status on 10/28 through the end of the model run on 11/4.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/8 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts a weak Inactive MJO signal over the KWGA with east anomalies in control to a point south of California. The forecast has the Inactive Phase tracking east through 10/15 with modest east anomalies filling the KWGA and with somewhat stronger east anomalies setting up east of the dateline filling the area to Ecuador. The Active Phase is to try and return on 10/14 and somewhat coherent holding in the KWGA into 11/10 producing only weak west anomalies in pockets in the KWGA but mostly east anomalies filling the KWGA and east anomalies holding over the East Pacific. A strong Inactive Phase is to follow over the KWGA 11/5 tracking east through 12/5 producing solid east anomalies filling the KWGA and strong over the East Pacific to Ecuador. A strong Active Phase is to follow 12/4 with moderate west anomalies over KWGA and then building over the East PAcific through the end of the model run on 1/5. East anomalies are now in control of the KWGA and the Eastern Pacific and are forecast to hold through early December. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is firmly in control over the dateline today with 2 contour lines reaching east to a point south of California and is to continue through the end of the model run though easing east to 165E at the end of the model run. At that time a third contour line is to develop starting 12/8. A single contour low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean today and is to build in coverage through the end of the model run with its eastern periphery easing east to 160E at the end of the model run. And a second contour line is forecast developing in its core on 12/11. Its core is to show no signs of moving east locked over the Indian Ocean. East anomalies that have been previously solid in the Indian Ocean for over a year have migrated east through the West Pacific to the East Pacific on 10/1 and should stabilize there for the foreseeable future. The trend is turning towards La Nina.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (10/8) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was gone. The 29 deg isotherm was stable at 162E today. The 28 deg isotherm line was stable at 178E today. The 24 deg isotherm was stable at 133W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +0-1 deg C were steady in the West Pacific pushing east to 165W at depth today. There was a pocket of cooler anomalies at -3 degs near 125W with cool anomalies filling the entire area east of there and bubbling up to the surface over that entire area. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 9/30 indicates the cool water bubble at depth was stronger and larger erupting to the surface from 165W eastward to Ecuador with a core to -4.5C but with cool anomalies even west to there to 160E. Warm anomalies were below the surface over the far West Pacific reaching east to 165W at depth (150m). The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (9/30) Negative anomalies were forming a wave pushing west from the Galapagos to 180W with negative anomalies -5 to -15 cms. Negative anomalies were -5 to -10 cms along the coast of Peru up into Ecuador and then reaching north up to Baja and into Southern CA. Looking at the big picture, negative anomalies were forming a massive triangle from Baja south to Southern Chile and west out to the intersection of the dateline and the equator. No positive anomalies were over the equatorial Pacific, except from the dateline and points west of there.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (10/7) The latest images indicate cold anomalies were on the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and solid in density over that entire and large area. Cold anomalies were imbedded in that flow between the Galapagos to 135W and showing some signs of trying to rebuild today. Cool anomalies were also holding along the coasts of Chile and Peru. This clearly indicates a well developed version of La Nina filling the entire equatorial Pacific and down into Chile. Warm water was all but gone off Central America north of the equator. Overall the cool pool on the equator was unmistakable and starting to show signs of rebuilding after previously being stalled.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/7): A solid stream of cooling waters were positioned on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos and west to 140W then moderating west of there.
Hi-res Overview: (10/7) A stream of consistent cool water is well entrenched from Chile up to Peru and Ecuador then tracking west on the equator out to the dateline. A clear La Nina signal is depicted.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/8) Today's temps were up slightly at -1.638 degs after previously reaching a momentary low of -2.138 on 8/13. The trend has been steady but quite cold since June.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(10/8) Temps were stable at -0.835 today after dropping to -0.945 on 9/22, the lowest so far in the La Nina event. The previous low was -0.733 on 9/10. Temps have been on a steady decline since 7/25. Before that temps were stable between 6/27-7/24 at near 0.0. And before that temps were rising after bottoming out down at -0.595 on 5/27. Overall the trend appears to be in a steep decline.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (10/8) Today the model indicates temps at -1.4 degs. The forecast depicts a steady downward trend from here reaching down to -2.3 degs in late Nov holding in early Dec then beginning to rise in later Dec, rebuilding up to -0.5 degs in May. This is begging to look like a 2 year event.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Sept 21, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at -0.75 degs today, and are to fall in Nov to -0.85 degs then moderating and starting to rise some to -0.54 by Jan 2021 and then neutral by April. The low outliers are dynamic models (NASA GMAO, NCEP CFSV2). But most model are suggesting a moderate La Nina returning to Neutral in the late Spring. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (10/8): The daily index was positive today at 13.92. The 30 day average was rising at +10.49. The 90 day average was steady at 8.11, suggesting a La Nina pattern was developing. This index is a lagging indicator.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): June -0.67, May -0.46, April 2020 -0.69, March -0.09, Feb +0.65, Jan +0.42, This index was steady positive Aug 2018 through Feb 2020, and now is steady negative, but only weakly so.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (10/4):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHVhXGwXMhI&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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