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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, October 22, 2020 3:42 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
1.9 - California & 2.7 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 10/19 thru Sun 10/25

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Gale Developing on Dateline
Southeast Pacific Swell Hitting CA

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Thursday, October 22, 2020 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 10.2 secs from 201 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 2.3 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 7.9 secs from 24 degrees. Water temp 82.0 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.4 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 15.2 secs from 165 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southwest at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 70.7 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 7.1 ft @ 10.1 secs from 307 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.0 ft @ 16.3 secs from 188 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.0 ft @ 16.3 secs from 185 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 2.0 ft @ 16.5 secs from 185 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 11.2 ft @ 11.4 secs with swell 9.1 ft @ 10.7 secs from 314 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was north at 6-10 kts. Water temp 52.5 degs (013), 56.5 degs (SF Bar) and 57.4 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

 
Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (10/22) in North and Central CA local northwest windswell was producing waves at head high or so and warbled from modest south wind. Protected breaks were head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up and closed out and slightly warbled. At Santa Cruz surf was occasionally waist high and a little warbled and soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high and clean and soft but a bit lined up early. Central Orange County had sets coming from the south at shoulder to head high and lined up and clean but with a little south ruffled on top early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves occasionally to head high on the peak and lined up and clean and peeling but inconsistent. North San Diego had sets at waist to chest high and clean and lined up but on the verge of closed out. Hawaii's North Shore was getting some sets at thigh to waist high at best breaks and clean and weak. The South Shore was thigh high and clean and weak. The East Shore was thigh high and clean early.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (10/22) California was getting local north windswell up north and building southern hemi swell down south. Hawaii was getting no swell of interest. A gale developed in the far Southeast Pacific on Tues (10/13) producing 41 ft seas aimed east with sideband swell from it starting to impact CA now. In the North Pacific a gale is tracking over the dateline producing up to 34 ft seas aimed southeast on Wed-Thurs (10/22). Beyond the models suggest another small gael forming on the dateline a week out on Thurs (10/229) producing 32 ft seas aimed east. Down south a gale is forecast building while moving over the Southeast Pacific on Sun-Mon (10/26) producing up to 45 ft seas aimed east.

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (10/22) the jet was consolidated tracking east-northeast off Japan pushing to the dateline then falling south indicative of a trough with 140 kt winds at it's apex then pushing east falling into a steep almost cutoff trough with it's apex almost over Hawaii. From there the jet started ridging hard north into the Northern Gulf before turning east again pushing over Vancouver Island. Over the next 72 hours the cutoff trough north of Hawaii is to vaporize later Thurs (10/22) while the dateline trough pushes east and starts getting reinforced by more wind energy late Fri (10/23) with 160 kt winds pushing hard south with the trough getting pinched into Sun (10/25) while pushing east likely losing support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours that pinched trough is to hold in some fashion north of Hawaii to the end of the model run on Thurs (10/29) easing east to a point 4500 nmiles north-northeast of Hawaii likely having steadily less support for gale or even low pressure development. A strong ridge is to hold over the US West Coast for the duration with the jet pushing inland over British Columbia. A week out the jet is to start pushing east-northeast off Japan building to 150 kts potentially forming a trough like structure just west of the dateline perhaps offering some hope.


Surface Analysis
On Thursday (10/22) no ground swell of interest was hitting California or Hawaii. Windswell was hitting North and Central CA (see QuikCASTs for details).

Over the next 72 hours a gale started developing over the North Dateline region on Wed PM (10/21) producing 50 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas building from 27 ft at 47.5N 174E aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (10/22) 45 kt west winds were pushing southeast with seas 33 ft at 45.5N 179.5W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts over a solid area over the North Dateline region aimed southeast with 26 ft seas at 47N 172.5W aimed east. On Fri AM (10/23) northwest fetch is to fade from 30 kts over the dateline with seas fading from 21 ft at 46N 172W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: For planning purposes expect swell arrival on Sun (10/25) building to 4.4 ft @ 14 secs later (6.0 ft). Swell holding on Mon (10/26) at 4.0 ft @ 12-13 secs (5.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (10/27) from 3.6 ft @ 11-12 secs (4.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed (10/28) fading from 3.0 ft @ 10-11 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 325 degrees

North CA: For planning purposes expect swell arrival on Mon (10/26) building to 2.5 ft @ 15-16 secs later (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell continues on Tues (10/27) at 2.7 ft @ 13-14 secs early (3.5 ft). Dribbles on Wed (10/28) fading from 1.8 ft @ 12 secs(2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 300 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical weather system of interest were being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday (10/22) north winds were at 35 kts over a solid area from Cape Mendocino down to Pt Arena with 30 kt north winds down to a point off Monterey Bay with windswell production increasing. Light winds are forecast nearshore south of Pt Reyes. Friday (10/23) north winds are forecast at 30-35 kts limited to Cape Mendocino with windswell fading some and light south winds from Bodega Bay southward. Sat (10/24) north winds are forecast at 20 kts along Oregon and down over Cape Mendocino then extending well off the CA coast south of there building to 25 kts later and reaching south to Pt Arena. Light winds nearshore south of there all day. Windswell potential building. On Sun (10/25) north winds are forecast at 30 kts solid along south Oregon down to Cape Mendocino producing more windswell with light winds from Bodega Bay southward all day. Mon (10/26) north winds are to be 25 kts early over Cape Mendocino fading in coverage later producing limited north windswell at exposed breaks south to Pt Conception with northeast winds from Pt Arena southward. On Tues (10/27) north fetch is to be fading from 25 kts limited to just Cape Mendocino with windswell generation potential fading and fetch dissipating in the afternoon. Light winds nearshore south of Cape Mendocino all day. Wed (10/28) no windswell producing fetch is forecast with light winds along the CA coast. No change on Thurs (10/29). No rain is forecast with the rain line starting over mid-Oregon and points northward.

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, 0 inches respectively. Freezing level at 13,500 ft or higher falling to 8,000 ft on 10/25-10/26, and then returning to the 12,500 ft level through the end of the model run on 10/31.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Thursday (10/22) swell from a small storm that formed in the far Southeast Pacific is hitting California today (see Southeast Pacific Storm below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

Southeast Pacific Storm
A storm formed in the Southeast Pacific on Mon PM (10/12) producing 50-55 kt southwest winds and seas building to 34 ft at 61S 139W aimed east-northeast. On Tues AM (10/13) west-southwest winds were 45 kts as the now gale moved east with 43 ft seas at 60S 129.5W. The gale rapidly faded in the evening with 40 kt southwest winds and seas fading from 38 ft at 57S 120W aimed east-northeast. Winds faded from 30-35 kts from the southwest on Wed AM (10/14) with seas fading from 29 ft at 54.5S 118.5W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there. Maybe some small swell to radiate north.

Southern CA: Swell holding on Thurs (10/22) at 2.4 ft @ 16 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading Fri (10/23) from 2.1 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.0 ft). Residuals on Sat (10/24) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees

North CA: Swell holding on Thurs (10/22) at 2.3 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading Fri (10/23) from 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Sat (10/24) fading from 1.5 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft) early. Swell Direction: 183 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Wed PM (10/28) a gale is forecast developing just west of the dateline with 45 kt west and northwest winds with seas building from 24 ft at 38.5N 171E aimed east. On Thurs AM (10/29) northwest winds are forecast at 50 kts over a small area aimed southeast with seas building to 30 ft at 41N 180W. Something to monitor.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the models suggest some sort of ill-formed gale trying to develop over the Central South Pacific on Sun PM (10/25) with 40-45 kt west winds over a large area aimed east with seas to 34 ft over a building area just off the north edge of the Ice Shelf there. On Mon AM (10/26) winds are to build to 50 kts from the west with seas building to 46 ft at 60S 127W all aimed well east over the far Southeast Pacific. In the evening this system is to be east of even the Southern CA swell window. Low odds of this system even forming much less sideband swell radiating north. Something to monitor.

And a bit of a reach, but the model is suggesting a far stronger system developing in the Central South Pacific Wed-Thurs (10/29) with up to 53 ft seas aimed well northeast.Will believe it when it happens.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Active MJO Softening La Nina Slightly

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool pushed east and by May subsurface cool waters erupted off Ecuador, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, holding into July 2020.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2020/2021 = 3.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020 only to return stronger in the Summer of 2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. But at this time that does not appear likely. Given all that, for the 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020/21, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the Spring of 2021.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/21) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and strong from the east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial turning moderate easterly over the Central Pacific and moderate easterly over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, so they lag what is happening today by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (10/22) moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA today and extending east to a point south of California on the equator. The forecast calls for east anomalies fading steadily to near neutral at the end of the model on 10/29 with weak west anomalies developing limited to the immediate dateline region. But strong east anomalies are to hold over the East Equatorial Pacific from the dateline to a point south of California. Support for energy transfer into the jet is weak but is expected to build some at the end of the model run.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (10/21) A moderate Active MJO signal was over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Active MJO pattern is to hold unchanged on days 5 then weakening some on day 10, then weakening slightly more on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests the same thing initially but with the Active Phase fading to weak status on day 10 and then gone on day 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (10/22) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was moderate over the far East Maritime Continent today and is to fade while tracking east over the West Pacific and near nothing at day 15 in the East Pacific. The GEFS model suggests the MJO is to ease east over the West Pacific to the East Pacific over the next 15 days and slowly weakening to weak status.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (10/21) This model depicts a weak Active MJO was over the West Pacific today. It is to push east and fade some as it moves over Central America on 11/13 having some limited support for storm production. A moderate Inactive Phase of the MJO is to push east over the KWGA on 11/3 tracking to the East Pacific and over Central America at the end of the model run on 11/30. At that time a modest Active signal is suggested building over the West Pacific.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/21) This model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO today was pushing into the Western KWGA but with moderate east anomalies filling the KWGA and all of the equatorial Pacific. The forecast indicates east anomalies holding at moderate status through 11/9 even while the Active Phase is forecast pushing through the KWGA producing no meaningful west anomalies. East anomalies are to build to strong status 11/10 and building some even after that holding through the end of the model run on 11/18 while the Inactive Phase of the MJO develops in the KWGA starting 11/14. East anomalies are to fade south of California 10/29-11/18 as the Active MJO tracks south of that area. But the KWGA is to remain dominated by east anomalies driven by La Nina, even when a solid Active MJO is present. That suggests the La Nina base state is strong and overiding the MJO..
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/22 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts a weak Active MJO signal is moving east through the KWGA but with mostly east anomalies in control to a point south of California and into Ecuador. The Active MJO is to slowly push east finally exiting the KWGA on 11/11 producing a mix of weak west and east anomalies. A stronger Inactive Phase is to follow over the KWGA 11/5 tracking east through 12/7 producing mostly east anomalies in the KWGA and strong east anomalies over the East Pacific to Ecuador. A stronger Active Phase is to follow 12/1-12/26 with moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA and successfully moving over the East Pacific to California. A weak Inactive Phase is to follow 12/19 through the end of the model run on 1/19 with west anomalies trying to hold on in the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is firmly in control over the dateline today with 2 contour lines reaching east to a point south of California and is to continue through the end of the model run with it's western periphery easing east to 170E at the end of the model run. A single contour low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean today and is to build in coverage through the end of the model run with its eastern periphery easing east to 165E at the end of the model run. Its core and western periphery is to show no signs of moving east locked over the Indian Ocean. East anomalies that have been previously solid in the Indian Ocean for over a year have migrated east through the West Pacific to the East Pacific on 10/1 and are forecast stabilizing there for the foreseeable future. The trend is towards a building La Nina.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (10/22) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was gone. The 29 deg isotherm was stable at 163E today. The 28 deg isotherm line was stable at 178E today. The 24 deg isotherm was stable at 135W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +0-1 deg C were steady in the West Pacific pushing east to 165W at depth today but no warmth east of there. There was a pocket of cooler anomalies at -4 degs near 135W with cool anomalies filling the entire area east of the dateline and shallower west to 160E. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/15 indicates the same with a large cool water bubble at depth stronger and larger erupting to the surface from 165W eastward to Ecuador with a core to -5C but with cool anomalies even west of there to 160E. Warm anomalies were below the surface over the far West Pacific reaching east to 160W at depth (150m). The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/15) Negative anomalies were forming a wave pushing west from the Galapagos to 180W reaching down to -15 cms solid between 110W-145W. Negative anomalies were -5 to -10 cms along the coast of Peru up into Ecuador and then reaching north up to Baja and into South and North CA. Looking at the big picture, negative anomalies were forming a massive triangle from San Francisco south to Southern Chile and west out to the intersection of the dateline and the equator. No positive anomalies were over the equatorial Pacific, except from the dateline and points west of there.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (10/21) The latest images indicate cold anomalies were on the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and solid in density over that entire and large area. Cold anomalies were imbedded in that flow between the Galapagos to 135W and holding solid today. Cool anomalies were also holding along the coasts of Chile and Peru. This clearly indicates a well developed version of La Nina filling the entire equatorial Pacific and down into Chile. Warm water was all but gone off Central America north of the equator. Overall the cool pool on the equator was unmistakable and starting to show signs of rebuilding after previously being stalled.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/21): Temps were warming on the equator from Ecuador to a point south of California at 120W on the equator. Cooling was from 120W to 160W then moderating west of there to 170E.
Hi-res Overview: (10/19) A stream of consistent cool water is well entrenched from Chile up to Peru and Ecuador then tracking west on the equator out to the dateline with markedly cool anomalies between 115-140W. A clear La Nina signal is depicted.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/22) Today's temps were rising some at -1.255 degs after previously reaching a momentary low of -2.138 on 8/13. The trend has been steady but quite cold since June.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(10/22) Temps were falling again at -1.296 today beating the previous low of -0.945 on 9/22. The previous low was -0.733 on 9/10. Temps have been on a steady decline since 7/25. Overall the trend appears to be in a steep decline.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (10/22) Today the model indicates temps at -1.1 degs. The forecast depicts a steady downward trend from here reaching down to -2.4 degs in mid-Jan then beginning to rise in later Dec, rebuilding up to -0.05 degs in mid-July. This is becoming a 2 year event in that even after temps return to 0/normal it will take 3-5 months for the upper level circulation to respond in kind.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Sept 21, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at -0.75 degs today, and are to fall in Nov to -0.85 degs then moderating and starting to rise some to -0.54 by Jan 2021 and then neutral by April. The low outliers are dynamic models (NASA GMAO, NCEP CFSV2). But most model are suggesting a moderate La Nina returning to Neutral in the late Spring. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (10/22): The daily index was positive today at 9.47. The 30 day average was falling slightly at +8.12. The 90 day average was falling some at 7.77, suggesting the current Active MJO was having some impact on the deep state La Nina pattern. This index is a lagging indicator.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): June -0.67, May -0.46, April 2020 -0.69, March -0.09, Feb +0.65, Jan +0.42, This index was steady positive Aug 2018 through Feb 2020, and now is steady negative, but only weakly so.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (10/18):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_DXelOq08A&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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