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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, October 31, 2019 2:06 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.5 - California & 3.9 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 10/28 thru Sun 11/3

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Neoguri Swell Fading in HI & CA
Small Gale Remains Forecast North of Hawaii

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Thursday, October 31, 2019 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 2.4 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 12.7 secs from 253 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 6.0 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 4.5 ft @ 10.1 secs from 350 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 13.5 secs from 191 degrees. Wind at the buoy was east at 10-12 kts. Water temperature 65.1 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.9 ft @ 13.5 secs from 285 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 13.4 secs from 230 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.6 secs from 212 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.2 ft @ 15.4 secs from 214 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.2 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 2.8 ft @ 12.8 secs from 288 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was east at 6-8 kts. Water temp 51.6 degs (013) and 56.3 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (10/31) in North and Central CA swell originating from the Dateline region was still hitting producing set waves at chest to maybe head high on the sets and clean and lined up with steady offshore winds in control. Protected breaks were waist to chest high and clean but weak and mushed. At Santa Cruz northwest swell was wrapping in producing waves at chest to shoulder high and clean but inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura surf was waist high and clean but soft. In North Orange Co waves were waist to chest high and mushed but clean and lined up coming from the south. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were still getting some southern hemi swell with set waves at chest to shoulder high and clean and lined up but a bit weak and inconsistent. North San Diego had waves at waist high and clean and lined up. Hawaii's North Shore was getting leftovers from the Dateline swell with waves head high and clean and lined up if not closed out occasionally. The South Shore had some waist high sets and clean and lined up when it came. The East Shore was getting wrap around swell from the Dateline with waves chest to shoulder high and clean with no wind blowing.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (10/31) in California and Hawaii swell was still hitting from a solid gale that developed over the Dateline region on Thurs (10/24) from the remnants of Typhoon Neoguri with 46 ft seas aimed east and then redeveloped on Fri (10/25) with 34-37 ft seas aimed southeast and with 27 ft seas holding over a solid area into Sun (10/27). No swell of interest was coming from the South Pacific. For the future a cutoff low is forecast developing 1000 nmiles north-northwest of Hawaii on Sat -Sun (11/3) producing 26-28 ft seas aimed south. There's no some suggestions of another small gale developing falling southeast through the far Western Gulf on Wed-Thurs (11/7) producing 26-28 ft seas. The South Pacific is in hibernation.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (10/31) the jetstream was tracking east off North Japan with winds to 140 kts reaching to the dateline then splitting with the main flow tracking northeast pushing up into the Alaskan Coast with a weak trough fading just south of the Eastern Aleutians offering nothing. The southern branch was weak and limping east from the split point pushing over Baja offering nothing. Over the next 72 hours a trough is to start building at the split point and easing east being fed by 130 kt winds on Sat (11/2) starting to support gale development and holding in some fashion into Mon (11/4) while fading but still supporting gale development. Beyond 72 hours the trough is to dissolve on Tues (11/5) while 150 kt winds starting pushing off Japan reaching to the dateline on Tues (11/5) with a massive split east of there but showing signs of weakness with those winds from the West Pacific pushing east at 140+ kts driving through the Gulf of Alaska and starting to form a trough in the Gulf capable of supporting gale development. It seems that a week out the demise of the big ridge that has been locking down the Gulf of Alaska might finally start occurring in sync with the dissipation of the Inactive Phase of the MJO.


Surface Analysis
On Thursday (10/31) swell from Extratropical Storm Neoguri was still hitting Hawaii and California (see Extratropical Storm Neoguri below).

Over the next 72 hours the models suggest another small gale might develop 900 nmiles northwest of Hawaii on Sat AM (11/2) producing 40-45+ kt north winds and seas building from 26 ft at 38.5N 170W aimed southeast. The gale is to fall southeast in the evening with 35-40 kt north winds and seas 28 ft at 35.5N 168.5W targeting the Islands well. On Sun AM (11/3) north winds are to be fading at 30 kts but over a larger area with 20-22 ft seas at 33.5N 166W aimed southeast and targeting Hawaii well. Fetch is to fade in in the evening with north winds 25-30 kts holding 800 nmiles northwest of the Islands with seas fading from 17 ft over a broad area at 35N 165W aimed south to southeast. On Mon AM (11/4) the gale and seas are to be gone. Swell is expected to radiate southeast towards mainly Hawaii if this system develops as forecast.

 

Extratropical Storm Neoguri
Redevelopment of Tropical Storm Neoguri occurred on Thurs AM (10/24) as it tracked northeast just off the coast of Japan with winds 45 kts heading northeast and then rapidly built as it tapped jetstream energy developing to storm status while pushing over the dateline with 50 kt northwest winds and seas building from 35 ft over a tiny area at 43.5N 171.5E aimed east. In the evening west winds continued at 50 kts with seas building to 46 ft over a small area aimed east at 45N 177E. On Fri AM (10/25) fetch was wrapping around down into the gales west quadrant aimed south at 45-50 kts and clear of the Central Aleutians with 37 ft seas from previous fetch aimed east at the US West Coast at 46N 175W and a new area of 34 ft seas building at 48N 176E aimed southeast at Hawaii. In the evening a solid area of 40-45 kt northwest winds were in place over the North Dateline aimed southeast with 35 ft seas at 47N 179.5E targeting Hawaii and the US West Coast well. North fetch was fading some on Sat AM (10/26) from 40 kts with 32 ft seas at 48N 179E aimed southeast targeting Hawaii well. In the evening northwest winds to continue at 40 kts over a solid area aimed southeast with 32 ft seas at 48.5N 178.5W aimed southeast. On Sunday AM (10/27) north winds to be 30-35 kts with seas fading from 27 ft at 46N 176W aimed southeast mainly at Hawaii. The gale is to fade out in the evening with winds fading from 30 kts aimed southeast and seas fading from 22 ft at 45N 171W aimed at Hawaii and the US West Coast. Some swell to result but not as large as one would hope for given it's rather small fetch area initially and it'
s north position and distance from either Hawaii or the US West Coast.

Hawaii: Residuals fading out on Thurs AM (10/31) from 4.0 ft @ 12-13 secs (5.0 ft). Swell dissipating Fri AM (11/1) from 2.8 ft @ 12 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 320 degrees initially moving to 335 degrees

North CA: Swell continues on Thurs AM (10/31) building slightly to 3.2 ft @ 13-14 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading on Fri (11/1) from 3.2 ft @ 12-13 secs (4.0 ft). Dribbles on Sat (11/2) fading from 2.2 ft @ 11 secs (2.5 ft).

Southern CA: No meaningful energy to reach into exposed breaks in Southern CA.

 

Windswell Outlook
On Thursday (10/31) north winds are to dissipate from 15 kts off Cape Mendocino offering no swell production potential of interest. No fetch is forecast for Hawaii. On Fri (11/1) north winds to rebuild weakly over Cape Mendocino at 20 kts perhaps offering some minimal windswell production radiating south over only North CA. No fetch is forecast for Hawaii. On Sat (11/2) north winds are forecast at 15-20 kts over the CA-OR border resulting in barely minimal windswell generation potential for mainly North California. No easterly trades are forecast for Hawaii. On Sun (11/3) north winds are forecast at 15-20 kts limited to Cape Mendocino perhaps offering weak odds for minimal windswell production for North and Central CA. No easterly trades capable of generating windswell are forecast for Hawaii.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being monitored over the greater North Pacific.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday (10/31) light offshore winds were occurring and forecast everywhere all day. For Fri (11/1) through Wed (11/6) light winds are forecast for everywhere but north at 15-20 kts just off the coast of Cape Mendocino. On Thurs (11/7) light winds are forecast everywhere all day. No precipitation forecast over the entire period with high pressure in control. But that might be changing by Sun (11/10).

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing fetch is occurring and no swell is in the water.  

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a small gale is forecast developing Wed PM (11/6) with northwest winds 40-45 kts over a small area aimed southeast and seas building from 25 ft at 44N 172W. On Thurs AM (11/7) northwest winds to be 40 kts over a tiny area aimed southeast with seas building to 28 ft at 42N 166W aimed southeast. The gale to track southeast from there. Something to monitor.

Windswell Outlook
For Mon-Tues (11/5) a growing area of north winds at 20-25 kts is forecast building some over the northern half of North CA starting to produce minimal north windswell down into Central CA. no easterly fetch is forecast for Hawaii offering no windswell production potential. On Wed (11/6) that fetch is to hold then fading late with north winds and windswell production potential fading out for California. No easterly fetch or windswell is forecast for Hawaii. On Thurs (11/7) no windswell production potential is forecast for either CA or HI.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Inactive MJO Fading - Kelvin Wave #5 Pushing East

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 is fading out, but not yet completely gone, especially in the atmosphere. Likewise it looks like a La Nina ocean temperature pattern is developing in the equatorial East Pacific, with cooler than normal waters tracking west on the equator. We assumed El Nino like momentum will hold for a while in the atmosphere will take a while to sense that the ocean temperature pattern has changed. But once it does, a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern will start to develop. that transition is expected in the late Nov-early Dec timeframe. Even so, moderation from the PDO might prevent La Nina from fully developing. Given all that, there is decent probability for a normal start to the Fall surf season (in the Northern Hemisphere) meaning a normal amount of number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in a normal levels of swell, with normal duration and normal period. But by mid-Dec 2019, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start fading and as a result, swell production should fade slightly as well. This pattern is expected to hold through April 2020.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/30) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific then moderate strength from the east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific continuing neutral over the Central Pacific and neutral again over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (10/31) easterly anomalies were moderate to strong on the dateline but west anomalies were developing at modest strength mostly filling the KWGA east to 175E today. The forecast is for east anomalies holding strong on the dateline and back filling west to 150E at the end of the model run on 11/7 with west anomalies building to moderate strength but becoming increasingly isolated to the for West Pacific. Strong east anomalies are locked in the Indian Ocean at 70E and are to ease west to 60E at the end of the model run.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (10/30) A neutral MJO pattern was over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates a weak Active Phase is to develop in the west KWGA at day 5 holding through day 10 then fading some but still present at day 15. The dynamic model indicates the same thing but with the weak Active Phase fading at day 15. The 2 models are in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (10/31) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was exceedingly weak over the Western Maritime Continent and is to migrate to the Central West Pacific at day 15 and at very weak strength at that time. The GEFS model remains on board suggesting some version of the same pattern.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (10/31) This model depicts a modest Active MJO was setting up over the West Pacific today with a fading Inactive signal over the East Pacific. The Active pattern is to track east pushing into Central America on 11/25 while a weak Inactive Phase starts building in the West Pacific 11/20. This Inactive Phase is to ease east pushing into Central America at the end of the model run on 12/10. At that time a new weak Active Phase is to be starting moving over the West Pacific tracking east.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/30) This model depicts moderate west anomalies in the KWGA today pushing east to 170E but with solid east anomalies on the dateline. West anomalies are to hold at moderate strength in the West Pacific through 11/7 then start building to the east and filling the entire equatorial Pacific by 11/9 and holding through 11/22 driven by the Active Phase of the MJO. On 11/20 west anomalies are to start fading over the KWGA with east anomalies starting to materialize in a few weak pockets tracking east to the dateline at the end of the model run on 11/27.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/31) This model depicts a moderate Inactive MJO pattern fading but still filling the KWGA today but past it's peak with weak west anomalies in the KWGA. The forecast has weak west anomalies holding as the Active Phase develops 11/5-11/20. West anomalies at modest strength to hold as a weak version of the Inactive Phase develops 11/23-12/8. Another Active Phase develops 12/7 holding through 12/23 with west anomalies building some to moderate strength. After than a weak Inactive Phase is to develop 12/25 holding through 11/11 but again with weak west anomalies holding but now located mainly on the dateline with east anomalies pushing east to 160E. Beyond east anomalies are to hold through the end of the model run on 1/28 pushing east to 170E with west anomalies limited to a small area over the dateline. Of note: Strong east anomalies are in the core of the Indian Ocean today at 80E and are to hold solid through 12/8 then weakening some while tracking east and moving into the KWGA in early January. The low pass filter changed on 7/25 and is holding today with a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. A third contour line was to develop on 12/1 but disappeared from the model a month ago, but now is back starting 12/26 and is to hold steady beyond. A high pressure bias built in the Indian Ocean starting 10/22 and is to hold through the end of the model run. This model indicates that a weak El Nino like pattern is to possibly rebuild. That is not believable given all current observations concerning subsurface and surface water temperature anomaly pattern over the equatorial Pacific.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (10/31) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 31 degrees to 164E and 30 degs pushing east today to 180W while the 29 deg isotherm was easing east to 166W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding from 152W to 158W today. The 24 deg isotherm moved east on 10/20 from 120W to 105W and is holding there today. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire Pacific with an interesting pocket at +2 degs pushing east from the Maritime Continent to 172E and a broader one at +2 degs centered at 125W pushing into Ecuador indicative of Kelvin Wave #5 on the move to the east. Warm water was filling the entire equatorial subsurface Pacific. Cooler waters previously were easing east starting down 150-200 meters down reaching east to 110W had retrograded west to 135W and looking far less menacing. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/25 indicates warm water from Westerly Wind Burst #5 has formed a Kelvin Wave extending from 150E under the Dateline east to 90W with temps +2-3 degs over the whole area with cool anomalies from 90W just off Ecuador drawing up from depth to the surface and being forced east by the Kelvin Wave. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/25) A shrinking area of positive anomalies was present but starting to break up scattered between 150E reaching east to near 95W at +5 cms. But a pocket of neutral anomalies was in the middle of this spread near 160W but much smaller than the last update. Negative anomalies were all but gone along Peru.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (10/30) The latest images ( 1.2 3.4 ) indicate cool anomalies were steady along Peru and Ecuador but all but gone over the Galapagos. A weak pocket of warming was fading along the Southern Peruvian Coast. A pocket of solid warming was developing along Ecuador. Warm water was steady in a few pockets 1 deg north of the equator from the Galapagos west to 100W and stronger and continuous west of there. Weak cool anomalies were mostly south of the equator from Ecuador to 100W. There has been a steady evaporation of El Nino in the East equatorial Pacific south of the equator this summer but that pattern is stabilized today and only weakly present mainly between 80W to 100W both north and south of the equator.  
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/30): Today a building pocket of warming temps anomalies was present between Ecuador over the Galapagos out to 120W. Generic warming was west of there on the equator. And a broad pocket of warming was pushing off Chile west to 100W. The short term trend is now towards at best weak warming.
Hi-res Overview: (10/30) A weak La Nina like cool pool is holding mainly south of the equator off Peru reaching north to the equator just touching the Galapagos. Otherwise gentle warming is pushing west on the equator, strongest from 100W and points west of there. Warmer than normal water was north of the equator from the remnants of El Nino, but mostly gone south of the equator. El Nino appears to be in retreat but La Nina does not appear to be building and if anything retreating.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/31) Today's temps were falling hard but appear to have turned the corner today pushing up to -1.217 after previously dropping to -1.921 degs on 10/10, that after falling to -1.8 degs on 9/15, then up to +0.030 on 10/2. Temps have been pretty consistently negative since June 1.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(10/31) Temps were steady today at +0.232 degs after previously bottoming out on 8/28 at -0.510 degs and 9/15 at -0.60 degs. The trend has been generally upwards since Sept.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (10/31) Actual's indicate a cooling trend set up late summer with temps -0.2 degs in mid-Sept then rising to +0.25 degs in early Oct. The forecast has temps rising reaching +0.5 degs by Oct 31 and then forecast falling to +0.2 degs on Jan1 then slowly rising to +0.5 degs May 1 2020, then fading to neutral July 1. According to this model a neutral sea surface temperature pattern biased slightly warm is forecast for the mid-term, possibly turning neutral after that.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.25 degs, and are to hold in the +0.25 deg range into May 2020, then fading slightly to +0.15 in June 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (10/31): The daily index was negative today at -2.26 and has been negative the last 9 days. The 30 day average was negative and falling some today -5.44. The 90 day average was rising some at -6.86, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was developing.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): Sept +1.13, August +0.64, July +0.75, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.30, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (10/27):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOgfP20WCHk&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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