Sunday, November 3, 2019
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 2.6 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 13.0 secs from 182 degrees.
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 9.2 secs from 271 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 1.7 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 0.9 ft @ 13.2 secs from 200 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 0-2 kts. Water temperature 63.1 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.2 secs from 221 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.9 ft @ 14.1 secs from 214 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.9 ft @ 13.3 secs from 205 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.2 ft @ 12.7 secs from 207 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 3.4 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 14.2 secs from 196 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was northwest at 4 kts. Water temp 52.3 degs (013) and 58.8 degs (042).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Sunday (11/3) in North and Central CA no swell was hitting with set waves rarely to waist high on the sets and soft with clean conditions and no wind early. Protected breaks were flat to knee high and clean. At Santa Cruz rare waves of indeterminate source were thigh high on the sets and clean and soft. In Southern California/Ventura surf was flat to knee high and clean and soft. In North Orange Co waves tiny southern hemi background swell was producing waves at up to waist high and closed out and clean. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were getting some minimal southern hemi swell with set waves at waist to maybe chest high on the peak and clean and lined up but weak and a bit inconsistent. North San Diego had waves rarely at thigh high and clean. Hawaii's North Shore was getting jumbled windswell with waves maybe waist high and mixed up and mushed. The South Shore was flat to thigh high and mixed up and soft with windlump running through it. The East Shore was getting no windswell of interest with clean conditions and light southwest winds.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Sunday (11/3) in California and Hawaii no swell was hitting. For the future for Hawaii a cutoff low developed 1000 nmiles north-northwest of the Islands Sat-Sun (11/3) producing 26-28 ft seas aimed south. Small swell is to radiate south towards Hawaii. Previous suggestions from the model concerning a tropical system currently in the West Pacific recurving northeast and redeveloping while tracking east of over the dateline have dissipated. There's literally no indications of gale development forecast for the next 7 days.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Sunday (11/3) the jetstream was tracking east off Japan with winds to 120 kts but quickly diffusing and almost splitting only to reconsolidate on the dateline while falling southeast into a trough with it's apex 600 nmiles north of Hawaii and winds building to 110 kts offering some support for gale development there. From there the jet lifting hard north and arched up into and over the Alaskan Coast before tracking southeast into the interior US. In short, the big ridge was holding over the Eastern Gulf of Alaska. Over the next 72 hours the trough north of Hawaii is to slowly fade off and the jet becomes heavily split on the dateline by Tues (11/5) with the northern branch pushing up well into the Bering Sea. Beyond 72 hours that ridge is forecast to be short lived though and by Wed (11/6) a consolidated flow is to set up tracking from off Japan over the dateline running east on the 38N latitude line with winds building to 140 kts over the Western Gulf feeding development of a trough in the Central Gulf early Thurs (11/7) and possibly supporting low pressure if not gale development. That trough is to lift northeast fast tracking up into and over British Columbia on Fri (11/8). But by Sat (11/9) a stronger pocket of wind energy is to be building in the Western Pacific at 190 kts falling southeast into another developing trough in the Gulf tracking east into Sun (11/10) with a decent flow of 140 kt winds flowing into the trough and out of it but no winds at it's apex therefore hampering gale development. But the good news is a fully consolidated jetstream flow is to be in control at that time traversing the North Pacific on the 40N latitude line with the big ridge in the east now shoved east and centered directly over California and looking much weaker than weeks past, if not on the verge of collapse.
On Sunday (11/3) no swell of interest was in the water in the nearby vicinity of Hawaii and California.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
West Gulf Gale
A small gale developed 1200 nmiles northwest of HAwaii on Fri PM (11/1) producing a tiny area of 45 kt north winds with seas starting to build. On Sat (11/2) the gale fell southeast some positioned 900 nmiles northwest of Hawaii producing 40-45+ kt north winds and seas building from 26 ft at 38N 166.5W aimed southeast. The gale fell southeast in the evening with 35-40 kt north winds and seas 28 ft at 35.5N 168W targeting the Islands well. On Sun AM (11/3) north winds were fading from 30-35 kts but over a larger area with 23-24 ft seas at 33.5N 164W aimed southeast and targeting Hawaii well. Fetch is to fade in in the evening with northwest winds 30 kts holding 900 nmiles north of the Islands with seas fading from 18-20 ft over a moderate size area at 35N 160W aimed south to southeast. On Mon AM (11/4) the gale is to be fading with 30 kt west winds in the gales south quadrant aimed east with seas 18 ft at 37N 155W aimed east at California. This system is to dissipate from there. Swell is expected to radiate southeast towards mainly Hawaii.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Mon (11/4) building to 7.6 ft @ 14 secs (1.0 ft) near noon. Swell fading some on Tues (11/5) from 5.7 ft @ 12-13 secs early (7.0 ft). Swell to continue downward on Wed (11/6) fading from 4.2 ft @ 10-11 secs (4.0 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (11/7) fading from 3.8 ft @ 10-11 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 330 degrees
North CA: Low odds of swell arriving on Thurs (11/7) pushing 2.8 ft @ 12 secs later (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading Fri (11/8) from 2.5 ft @ 10-11 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 275 degrees
On Sunday (11/3) north winds were 20-25 kts limited to a tiny area off Cape Mendocino perhaps offering weak odds for minimal windswell production for North and Central CA. No easterly trades capable of generating windswell well east of Hawaii. For Mon-Tues (11/5) a steady area if not slightly growing area of north winds at 20-25 kts is forecast holding off Cape Mendocino build some over the northern half of North CA starting to produce minimal north windswell down into Central CA. No easterly fetch is forecast for Hawaii offering no windswell production potential. More of the same is forecast on Wed (11/6) relative to North CA. For Hawaii easterly fetch is to be building southeast of the Islands at 15+ kts with east winds 15 kts also 400-1800 nmiles east of all the Isalnds perhaps starting to produce windswell radiating west into exposed east facing breaks.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Tropical Storm Halong on Sun AM (11/3) was tracking northwest positioned about 600 nmiles east-northeast of Guam with sustained winds at 50 kts. Steady strengthening is forecast on Mon-Tues (11/5) as Halong turns to the north with winds building to 105 kts (120 mph). On Wed (11/6) Halong is to recurve to the northeast with winds fading from 80 kts and starting to accelerate off the northeast, repositioned at 26.5N 163E or 550 nmiles north-northwest of Wake Island with winds 40 kts. The GFS model has Halong running smack into high pressure on Fri (11/8) and getting sheared apart with no identifiable circulation center remaining.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Sunday (11/3) light winds were occurring along the California coast and forecast holding all day. For Mon (11/4) through Wed (11/8) light winds are forecast for everywhere but north at 15-20 kts just off the coast of Cape Mendocino down to Pt Arena. On Thurs (11/7) light winds become established for all of California holding on Fri (11/8). Perhaps on Sat (11/9) north winds are to start building to 15 kts mainly in the afternoon over all of North and Central CA holding into Sun AM (11/10) then suddenly evaporating mid-morning. No precipitation forecast over the entire period with high pressure in control.
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).
No swell producing fetch is occurring and no swell is in the water.
Over the next 72 hours a small gale is forecast developing on Sun PM (11/3) east of Northern New Zealand and south of Tahiti producing 45 kt south winds over a small area aimed north with seas building from 24 ft at 38N 160W. On Mon AM (11/4) fetch is to build in coverage at 40 kts from the south and southwest with seas building to 30 ft at 35S 157W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds to be fading from 35 kts with seas 26-28 ft at 35S 157W aimed northeast. The gale to fade from there. Possible small swell radiating northeast towards Hawaii and the US West Coast.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems or fetch of interest is forecast.
On Thurs (11/7) no windswell production potential is forecast for either CA and east fetch is to be breaking up east of Hawaii. Maybe some windswell to still be hitting attributable to previous fetch relative to HI. Fri-Sun (11/9) no windswell producing fetch is forecast for HI or CA.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
Active MJO Building - Kelvin Wave #5 Tracking East
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 is fading out, but not yet completely gone, especially in the atmosphere. Likewise it looks like a La Nina ocean temperature pattern is developing in the equatorial East Pacific, with cooler than normal waters tracking west on the equator. We assumed El Nino like momentum will hold for a while in the atmosphere will take a while to sense that the ocean temperature pattern has changed. But once it does, a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern will start to develop. that transition is expected in the late Nov-early Dec timeframe. Even so, moderation from the PDO might prevent La Nina from fully developing. Given all that, there is decent probability for a normal start to the Fall surf season (in the Northern Hemisphere) meaning a normal amount of number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in a normal levels of swell, with normal duration and normal period. But by mid-Dec 2019, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start fading and as a result, swell production should fade slightly as well. This pattern is expected to hold through April 2020.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/2) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and strong over the KWGA to 170E then turning light westerly. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific continuing neutral over the Central Pacific then moderate easterly on the dateline turning quickly light westerly from 170E and points west of there.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (11/3) easterly anomalies were strong on the dateline but west anomalies were equally as strong developing at 150E and points east of there today. The forecast is for east anomalies holding strong on the dateline till 11/9 then quickly evaporating while west anomalies hold solid at 150E through the end of the model run on 11/10.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (11/2) A building Active MJO pattern was over the KWGA today and filling it. The statistic model indicates the Active Phase is to hold over the KWGA at day 5 then fading some at day 10 and all but gone at day 15. The dynamic model indicates the same thing. The 2 models are in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (11/3) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was modest over the Eastern Maritime Continent and is to migrate to the West Pacific at day 15 while fading to weak status at that time. The GEFS model suggests the same thing but with the Active Phase building to moderate strength days 3-8 over the far West Pacific.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (11/3) This model depicts a strong Active MJO was over the West Pacific today with a fading Inactive signal over the far East Pacific. The Active pattern is to track east pushing into the Central Pacific still strong on 11/18 then fading while pushing into Central America on 11/28. A strong Inactive Phase is to start building in the West Pacific 11/18 tracking east while holding strength pushing into Central America at the end of the model run on 12/13. And a new modest Active Phase is to be starting moving over the West Pacific 12/8 tracking east.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/2) This model depicts moderate west anomalies in the KWGA today pushing east to 170E but with solid east anomalies on the dateline. West anomalies are to hold at moderate strength in the West Pacific through 11/8 then start building to the east and filling the entire equatorial Pacific beyond as east anomalies on the dateline dissolve and west anomalies holding through the end of the model run on 11/30 with the Active Phase of the MJO tracking over the KWGA today through 11/18.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/3) This model depicts an Inactive MJO quickly exiting the KWGA to the east today. The Active Phase Phase of the MJO was building in the far West KWGA with west anomalies stating to fill the KWGA today. The Active Phase is to hold in KWGA through 11/29 with west anomalies forecast then the Active Phase and west winds repulsing through 12/21. The Inactive Phase is to develop 12/21 holding through 1/10 with west anomalies fading out. A weak Active Phase is to redevelop 11/8 in the West Pacific tracking east and holding through the end of the model run on 1/31 but with a generally neutral wind anomaly pattern forecast. Strong east anomalies are in the core of the Indian Ocean today at 80E and are to hold solid through 12/29 easing east to 90E then weakening some while tracking east and moving into the KWGA in early January and holding moving to 160E on 11/6 through the end of the model run. The low pass filter changed on 7/25 and is holding today with a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. A third contour line was to develop on 12/1 but disappeared from the model a month ago, but now is back starting 12/20 fading out on 1/6. A high pressure bias built in the Indian Ocean starting 10/22 and is to hold through the end of the model run. This model indicates that a weak El Nino like pattern is to possibly rebuild. That is not believable given all current observations concerning subsurface and surface water temperature anomaly pattern over the equatorial Pacific.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/3) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 31 degrees to 162E and 30 degs backtracking to 177E while the 29 deg isotherm was also backtracking to 170W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding from 152W to 159W today. The 24 deg isotherm moved east on 10/20 from 120W to 107W and is holding there today. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire Pacific with an interesting pocket at +2 degs pushing east from the Maritime Continent to 172E and a broader one at +3 degs centered at 125W pushing into Ecuador indicative of Kelvin Wave #5 on the move to the east. Warm water was filling the entire equatorial subsurface Pacific. Cooler waters previously were easing east down 150-200 meters reaching east to 110W had retrograded west to 150W and looking far concerning than before. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/30 indicates warm water from Westerly Wind Burst #5 had formed a Kelvin Wave extending from 150E under the Dateline east to 90W with temps +2-3 degs over the whole area with cool anomalies from 90W just off Ecuador drawing up from depth to the surface and being forced east by the Kelvin Wave. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/30) A shrinking area of positive anomalies was present limited between 150W to 90W at +5 cms. Negative anomalies were all but gone along Peru.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (10/30) The latest images ( 1.2 3.4 ) indicate cool anomalies were steady along Peru and Ecuador but all but gone over the Galapagos. A weak pocket of warming was fading along the Southern Peruvian Coast. A pocket of solid warming was developing along Ecuador. Warm water was steady in a few pockets 1 deg north of the equator from the Galapagos west to 100W and stronger and continuous west of there. Weak cool anomalies were mostly south of the equator from Ecuador to 100W. There has been a steady evaporation of El Nino in the East equatorial Pacific south of the equator this summer but that pattern is stabilized today and only weakly present mainly between 80W to 100W both north and south of the equator.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/2): Today a small pocket of warming temps anomalies was present between Ecuador over the Galapagos out to 100W and weaker out to 120W. Generic warming was west of there on the equator. And a weak pocket of warming was pushing off Chile and Peru west to 90W. The short term trend is now towards at best weak warming.
Hi-res Overview: (11/2) A weak La Nina like cool pool is holding mainly south of the equator off Peru reaching north to the equator just touching the Galapagos. Otherwise gentle warming is pushing west on the equator, strongest from 100W and points west of there. Warmer than normal water was north of the equator from the remnants of El Nino, but mostly gone south of the equator. El Nino appears to be in retreat but La Nina does not appear to be building and if anything retreating.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/3) Today's temps were rising up to -0.742 after previously dropping to -1.921 degs on 10/10, that after falling to -1.8 degs on 9/15, then up to +0.030 on 10/2. Temps have been pretty consistently negative since June 1.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/3) Temps were steady today at +0.263 degs after previously bottoming out on 8/28 at -0.510 degs and 9/15 at -0.60 degs. The trend has been generally upwards since Sept.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (11/3) Actual's indicate a cooling trend set up late summer with temps -0.2 degs in mid-Sept then rising to +0.25 degs in early Oct. The forecast has temps rising reaching +0.5 degs by Oct 31 and then forecast falling to +0.2 degs on Jan 1 then slowly rising to +0.5 degs May 1 2020, then fading to +0.25 July 1. According to this model a neutral sea surface temperature pattern biased slightly warm is forecast for the mid-term, possibly turning neutral after that.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.25 degs, and are to hold in the +0.25 deg range into May 2020, then fading slightly to +0.15 in June 2020. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (11/3): The daily index was negative today at -10.31 and has been mostly negative the last 12 days. The 30 day average was negative and rising some today -4.05. The 90 day average was rising some at -6.62, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was developing.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): Sept +1.13, August +0.64, July +0.75, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.30, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (11/3):
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table