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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2020 3:26 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.9 - California & 2.1 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 11/9 thru Sun 11/15

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Small N. Dateline Gale Tracking East
Local Gale Off Pac NW Beyond

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Tuesday, November 10, 2020 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 9.9 secs from 193 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 6.8 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 4.4 ft @ 12.4 secs from 18 degrees. Water temp 82.0 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 12.6 secs from 200 degrees. Wind at the buoy was east at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 61.5 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.1 ft @ 12.5 secs from 298 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.1 ft @ 12.6 secs from 208 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.8 ft @ 13.2 secs from 206 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 2.2 ft @ 12.4 secs from 272 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.6 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 4.5 ft @ 9.1 secs from 325 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 8-12 kts. Water temp 51.6 degs (013), 56.5 degs (SF Bar) and 55.6 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

 
Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (11/10) in North and Central CA waves were waist to chest high and lined up and glassy but generally weak. Protected breaks were waist high or so and clean and soft. At Santa Cruz surf was flat and clean but with some underlying lump. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high and real clean but pretty weak. Central Orange County had waves at waist to chest high and clean and lined up but soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at shoulder high on the peak and clean and lined up and peeling on the rare occupancies when they came. North San Diego had sets at up to waist high and clean and peeling with light offshore winds. Hawaii's North Shore was getting leftover windswell with waves waist to chest high at top breaks and clean. The South Shore was near flat and clean. The East Shore was getting northeast windswell with waves chest to head high and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (11/10) leftover dribbles of windswell from different systems were hitting North and Central California and then also Hawaii. Beyond another system was tracking east off the North Kuril Islands Mon-Tues (11/10) producing up to 38 ft seas aimed east then is expected to fade in the Northern Gulf on Thurs (11/12) with seas dropping from 25 ft. Beyond a weak system is forecast developing in the Eastern Gulf on Fri (11/13) producing up to 30 ft aimed at Oregon and North CA. Another gale is forecast developing on the North Dateline Region on Mon (11/16) tracking southeast into the Gulf Tues (11/17) with up to 41 ft seas. No swell of interest was hitting Hawaii or California originating from the Southern Hemisphere. Swell from a weak system previously in the Southeast Pacific is pushing towards Southern CA and points south of there. And beyond one last weak gale is forecast tracking east over the Southeast Pacific Tues-Thurs (11/12) producing 28-30 ft seas aimed east.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (11/10) the jet was consolidated tracking east-northeast off Japan with winds building to 170 kts pushing to the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska then splitting and weak east of there falling southeast and dropping over the California coast then pushing inland over Northern Baja. There were no troughs and no obvious support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the jet is to continue pushing east and solid with winds 180 kts pushing through the Northern Gulf on Wed (11/11) and then pushing over the Oregon-California border on Fri (11/13) no producing any defined troughs but offering some support for gale development in the Northern Gulf. Beyond 72 hours decent wind energy is to continue flowing through the middle Gulf east into the Pacific Northwest into Sun (11/15) with a trough trying to develop over the Northwestern Gulf and that trough starting to pinch late Mon (11/16) over the Eastern Gulf off Oregon perhaps offering some support for gale development. But by Tues (11/17) back to the west the jet is to be split and jumbled with the southern branch running flat east down at 35N from Japan to the dateline but weak and then on into Northern California and somewhat more consolidated with winds 120-140 kts over the bulk of the Gulf of Alaska perhaps offering some support for gale development there.


Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (11/10) leftover windswell was hitting exposed breaks in California associated with a gale previously in the Northeastern Gulf. And windswell was fading in Hawaii from a low pressure system previously north of the Islands.

Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast developing just off the Kuril Islands on Mon PM (11/9) producing 45 kt west winds over a small area and seas building from 26 ft at 47.5N 163E aimed east. The gale tracked east Tues AM (11/10) producing 50 kt west winds and seas building to 38 ft at 48.5N 168E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to be over the North Dateline region producing 45 kt west winds and seas 34 ft at 50N 178.5E aimed east. On Wed AM (11/11) the gale is to be moving north of the Eastern Aleutians with 40-45 kt west winds still lingering south of the Aleutians producing 28 ft seas at 51N 167W aimed east. 35-40 kt west fetch is to hold in the Northern Gulf in the evening producing 26 ft seas at 53N 158W aimed east. The gale is to be fading Thurs AM (11/12) in the extreme Northern Gulf with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas fading from 25 ft up at 55N 151W aimed east. Something to monitor.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical weather system of interest were being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday (11/10) northwest winds were 10 kts or less early for North and Central CA forecast holding all day. Light rain for possible for Cape Mendocino early. Wed (11/11) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North and Central CA all day with low pressure well off Central CA. Thurs (11/12) North and Central CA to see northwest winds 10-15 kts all day. Rain developing for Cape Mendocino late evening. Fri (11/13) North CA to have light south winds early building to 15-20 kts later as low pressure moves up to North Oregon later with a front pushing down to over Cape Mendocino later. Central CA to have northwest winds 10 kts all day. Rain for Cape Mendocino before sunrise building south to the Golden Gate in the evening. Maybe some light snow after dark for Tahoe. Sat (11/14) northwest winds to be 5 kts early for North and Central CA building to 15 kts all locations late afternoon. Light rain expected north of Monterey Bay early. Light snow down to Tahoe early. Sun (11/15) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North CA early and 15-20 kts for Central CA fading in North CA later to 5 kts and holding at 15-20 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay. Light rain for Cape Mendocino later. Mon (11/16) light winds are forecast for North CA early and northwest at 10-15 kts for Central CA fading all location to calm later except south at 20 kts for north Cape Mendocino later. Light rain for Cape Mendocino later. Early Tues (11/17) southwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North CA north of Bodega Bay and light northwest south of there. Rain pushing south to the Golden Gate later.

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 7 inches, 9 inches, 1 inches, and 0 inches respectively. Freezing level 7,000 ft into Sun AM then rising to 12,000 ft into Tues (11/17) then falling to 8,000 ft beyond.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (11/10) no swell of interest from the Southern Hemisphere was hitting Hawaii or California. A weak gale formed in the Southeast Pacific generating background swell tracking north (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours one last gale was developing over the Southeast Pacific Tues AM (11/10) producing 35-40 kt west winds and seas 28 ft at 60S 143W aimed east. In the evening that fetch is to push east producing southwest winds at 30-35 kts with seas 28 ft at 57.7S 131.5W aimed northeast. On Wed (11/11) that fetch is to dissipate but a new fetch of 40 kt west winds is to build right behind producing a small area of 26 ft seas at 61S 145.5W aimed east. In the evening the fetch is to build with 40-45 kt west winds in the far Southeastern Pacific producing 32 ft seas at 59S 130.5W aimed east. Fetch and sea are to move east of the Southern CA swell window beyond. There some odds for small southern hemi swell to result radiating north towards Southern CA and points south of there.

 

Southeast Pacific Gale
Background swell is expected into Southern CA from a gale that weakly pushed east through the Southeast Pacific on Wed-Thurs (11/5) producing up to 29 ft seas aimed east.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (11/12) producing swell to 2.3 ft @ 17-18 secs (4.0 ft). Swell holding on Fri (11/13) at 2.6 ft @ 16 secs (4.0 ft). Swell fading on Sat (11/14) from 2.3 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading out on Sun (11/15) from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft) with secondary swell building underneath at 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). That swell fading out on Mon (11/16) at 1.6 ft @ 14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours another gale is to form in the far eastern Gulf on Fri AM (11/13) producing 35 kt west winds with seas building from 19 ft at 45.5N 144W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to be just off North Oregon with 50 kt northwest winds and seas 31 ft at 45.5N 130.5W aimed east southeast (319 degs NCal). Something to monitor.

Beyond the models suggest another small system developing just west of the dateline on Sun PM (11/5) producing 50-55 kt northwest winds over a tiny area with 29 ft seas at 43.5N 178E aimed east. On Mon AM (11/16) 50 kt west winds are to over a small area with seas 41 ft at 46N 175W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to push east with 40 kt west winds and seas 37 ft at 46.5N 167.5W aimed east. On Tues AM (11/17) the gale is to start falling southeast in the Western Gulf with 35-40 kt west winds and seas 32 ft at 45N 160.5W aimed east. Something to monitor.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast. The southern hemi is going to sleep.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Inactive MJO Building - Forecast to be Strong

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool pushed east and by May subsurface cool waters erupted off Ecuador, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, holding into July 2020.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2020/2021 = 3.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020 only to return stronger in the Summer of 2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. But at this time that does not appear likely. Given all that, for the 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020/21, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the Spring of 2021.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/9) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong from the east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest from the east over the East equatorial Pacific turning neutral over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, so they lag what is happening today by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (11/10) moderate east anomalies were over the KWGA with moderate west anomalies on the equator from a point south of Hawaii into Ecuador. The forecast calls for east anomalies building steadily in coverage and strength in the KWGA through the forecast period reaching strong status 11/14 through the end of the model run on 11/17. with west anomalies holding from south of California to Ecuador. Support for energy transfer into the jet is weak and is expected to be getting progressively weaker.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (11/9) A fading Active MJO signal was over the KWGA today with the Inactive Phase trying to build into the far West KWGA. The statistic model indicates the Inactive Phase is to build steadily to strong status by day 10 of the model run and holding on day 15. The dynamic model suggests the same thing but with the Inactive Phase at strong status on day 10, then fading some on day 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (11/10) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was non-existent over the Atlantic today and is to track east into the West Indian Ocean and even weaker on day 15. . The GEFS model suggests pretty much the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (11/9) This model depicts a very weak Active Phase over the East Pacific tracking into Central America on 12/4. The Inactive Phase was over the West PAcific today and forecast tracking east into Central America 12/14. A very weak Active Phase is to set up over the West Pacific 11/24 pushing east and decaying to nothing over the Central Pacific at the end of the model run on 12/19.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/9) This model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO today had exited the KWGA and was over the East Pacific with west anomalies over that same area. East anomalies were at moderate status over KWGA today. The forecast indicates east anomalies are to be building in coverage reaching strong status and filling the KWGA starting 11/11 as the Inactive Phase of the MJO builds over the West Pacific tracking east through 11/23 with east anomalies all the way to a point south of California. After that a neutral MJO is forecast but with solid east anomalies holding in the KWGA with weaker east anomalies east of the KWGA to a point south of California through the end of the model run on 12/7.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/10 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts the Inactive Phase of the MJO building over the KWGA with east anomalies in control. The Inactive Phase is to pushing over the KWGA through 12/4 producing east anomalies filling the KWGA and points east of there to Ecuador. A moderate Active Phase is to follow on 12/5 building east with modest to moderate west anomalies building and holding as the Active Phase pushes out of the KWGA on 1/13. West anomalies are modeled making limited progress over the East Pacific. A moderate Inactive MJO is to return 12/30 in the west and pushing through the KWGA at the end of the model run on 2/7 with mostly weak west anomalies holding over the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is firmly in control over the dateline today with 2 contour lines reaching east to a point south of California and is to continue through the end of the model run with it's western periphery easing east to 170E at the end of the model run. A third contour line is to appear briefly around 12/28. A single contour low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean today and is to build in coverage holding through the end of the model run and its eastern periphery easing east to 160E at the end of the model run. Its core is to now show some signs of moving east from 65E to 100E at the end of the model run. East anomalies that have been previously solid in the Indian Ocean for over a year have migrated east through the West Pacific to the East Pacific on 10/1 and are forecast stabilizing there for the foreseeable future. The trend is towards a building La Nina that is not likely to be dislodged anytime soon. This looks like a 2 year event now.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/10) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was gone. The 29 deg isotherm was retrograding to 159E today. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking hard to 171E today. The 24 deg isotherm was steady at 137W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +0-1 deg C were steady in the West Pacific pushing east to 160W at depth today but no warmth east of there and no sign of moving anytime soon. There was a pocket of cooler anomalies at -3 degs near 125W with cool anomalies filling the entire area east of the dateline and shallower west to 150E. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/4 indicates the same with a large cool water bubble at depth stronger and larger erupting to the surface from 160E eastward to Ecuador with a core to -5C at 130W. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/4) Negative anomalies were forming a wave pushing west from the Galapagos to 160E building to -20 cms at 130W and -15 cms solid between 110W-140W. Negative anomalies were -5 to -10 cms along the coast of Peru up into Ecuador and then reaching north up to Baja and into South and North CA. Looking at the big picture, negative anomalies were forming a massive triangle from San Francisco south to Southern Chile and west out to the intersection of the dateline and the equator. No positive anomalies were over the equatorial Pacific, except from the dateline and points west of there.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (11/9) The latest images indicate cold anomalies were on the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and solid in density over that entire and large area. Colder anomalies were imbedded in that flow between 110W to 150W and steady in coverage today. Cool anomalies were also holding along the coasts of Chile and Peru. This clearly indicates a well developed version of La Nina filling the entire equatorial Pacific and down into Chile. Warm water was all but gone off Central America north of the equator. Overall the cool pool on the equator was unmistakable and starting to show signs of rebuilding after previously being stalled.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/9): Temps were cooling on the equator between Ecuador to 110W and steady west of there.
Hi-res Overview: (11/9) A stream of consistent cool water is well entrenched from Chile up to Peru and Ecuador then tracking west on the equator out to the dateline and west to New Guinea with markedly cool anomalies between 110-150W. A clear La Nina signal is depicted.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/10) Today's temps were falling some to -1.297 today after having been on a slight rising trend starting 9/20 peaking at -0.910 degs on 11/5. Temps were previously down to -2.138 on 8/13. The overall trend has been steady but quite cold since June.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(11/10) Temps were rising today to -1.323 after bottoming out at -1.654 on 11/3, beating the previous low of -0.945 on 9/22. The previous low before that was -0.733 on 9/10. Temps have been on a steady decline since 7/25. Overall the trend appears to be in a steep decline.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (11/10) Today the model indicates temps at -1.50 degs. The forecast depicts a steady downward trend to continue reaching -2.25 degs in mid-Jan then beginning to rise, rebuilding up to -0.20 degs in mid-July. This is becoming a 2 year event in that even after temps return to 0/normal it will take 3-5 months for the upper level circulation to respond in kind.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 21, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at -1.10 degs today, and are to hold into Dec, then moderating and starting to rise some to -0.89 by Jan 2021 and then neutral by June. Most models are suggesting a moderate to La Nina returning to Neutral in the late Spring. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (11/10): The daily index was falling at +3.62. The 30 day average was falling at +2.29. The 90 day average was rising some at 7.74, suggesting the current fading Active MJO has had some limited impact on the deep state La Nina pattern. This index is a lagging indicator.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): June -0.67, May -0.46, April 2020 -0.69, March -0.09, Feb +0.65, Jan +0.42, This index was steady positive Aug 2018 through Feb 2020, and now is steady negative, but only weakly so.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (11/8):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GkkDyineF9c&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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