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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Wednesday, November 27, 2019 4:29 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.5 - California & 3.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 11/25 thru Sun 12/1

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Local Gale Swell Hitting CA
Cutoff Gale Swell Hitting HI

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Wednesday, November 27, 2019 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 4.4 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 7.9 secs from 184 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 6.4 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 4.3 ft @ 13.6 secs from 304 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.7 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 14.3 secs from 264 degrees. Wind at the buoy was west-northwest at 20-24 kts. Water temperature 61.9 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.2 ft @ 15.5 secs from 291 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.3 ft @ 5.7 secs from 248 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.1 ft @ 12.1 secs from 232 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.3 ft @ 15.4 secs from 277 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 21.5 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 15.3 ft @ 14.8 secs from 312 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 10-16 kts. Water temp 51.6 degs (013), 53.8 degs (012) and 55.4 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Wednesday (11/27) in North and Central CA local gale swell was producing waves at 4 ft overhead and raw and lumpy. Protected breaks were 2-3 ft overhead and lumpy and nearly closed out but reasonably clean. At Santa Cruz surf was 2-3 ft overhead and pretty clean. In Southern California/Ventura the same swell hadn't hit yet with waves thigh high or so and lumpy and weak. In North Orange Co waves were waist to chest high and blown out from southerly wind and unrideable. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were flat and chopped. North San Diego had waves at knee high and chopped but cleaner than up north. Hawaii's North Shore was getting swell from a cutoff low north of the Islands with waves 2-3 ft overhead and lined up and clean. The South Shore was thigh to waist high and blown out from southerly wind. The East Shore was getting east windswell with waves head high or a little more and lightly chopped from modest southeast wind. solid east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Wednesday (11/27) in Hawaii swell from a cutoff low that developed northwest of Hawaii Sun-Tues (11/26) with up to 30 ft seas aimed southeast. California was getting swell from a local low that develop along the North Coast on Tues-Wed (11/27) falling south while producing 38 ft seas. Another storm is to develop in the Northwestern Gulf falling southeast Thurs-Sat (11/30) with up to 41 ft seas. And maybe another gale is to form in the Northwestern Gulf on Wed (12/4) with 22 ft seas falling southeast. So more swell is in the forecast.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Wednesday (11/27) the jetstream was fragmented pushing east off a spread from Japan up to Kamchatka tracking to the dateline with the small imbedded remnants of a steep trough on the dateline pushing east with the whole mess ridging hard north up into nearly Alaska then finally consolidating while falling hard south just off the US West Coast with winds to 180 kts offering good support for gale development there. Then the jetstream pushed inland over Southern CA. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to slide southeast and eventually move inland over Central California late on Fri (11/29). Back to the west the jet is to start consolidating off Japan with winds building to 150 kts ridging hard northeast pushing over the Eastern Aleutians on Sat (11/30) with winds building to 190 kts then falling hard south into the Central Gulf on Sun (12/1) possibly setting up support for gale development there. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (12/2) the trough in the Gulf is to start pinching off just beyond California and moving inland late Tues (12/3). At that time back to the west the jet is to finally be consolidating over Japan with winds there at 180 kts reaching east to a point nearly reaching the dateline before significantly splitting with most energy pushing hard north up into the Bering Sea then falling hard south and reconsolidating forming a new building trough in the Eastern Gulf being fed by 130-140 kt winds offering good support for gale development. For now the focus is to be the Gulf of Alaska.


Surface Analysis
On Wednesday (11/27) swell from a cutoff gale previously north of Hawaii was hitting the Islands (See Hawaiian Cutoff Gale below). And swell from a local gale off North CA was hitting that area now (see North CA Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Wed PM (11/27) a new storm is to start building in the Northwestern Gulf producing 30 kt north winds with seas building. On Thurs AM (11/28) the storm is to start producing 55 kt northwest winds tracking slowly east with seas building to 27 ft at 48N 160W aimed southeast. In the evening 50-55 kt northwest winds to hold with 40 ft seas at 47.5N 154.5W aimed southeast. On Fri AM (11/29) winds to hold coverage but be fading from 40-45 kts out of the northwest with 34 ft seas at 49N 152W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to start falling southeast with 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas 29 ft at 45N 152N. On Sat AM (11/30) the gale is to be falling southeast with northwest winds 30 kts and seas 26 ft at 40N 145W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to be fading with 30-35 kt northwest winds 1100 nmiles off San Francisco and seas 25 ft at 38N 144W aimed southeast. The gale is to fade from there.

Hawaii: For planning purposes expect swell arrival on Sat (11/30) afternoon building to 4.0 ft @ 16-17 secs late (6.5 ft). Swell holding Sun AM (12/1) at 5.5 ft @ 15-16 (8.5 ft) with some windswell intermixed. Swell fading on Mon AM (12/2) from 6.1 ft @ 14 secs (8.5 ft). Swell Direction: 355-010 degrees

North CA: For planning purposes expect swell arrival on Sun AM (12/1) building to 7.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (11.5 ft) later. Swell to continue on Mon (12/2) at 7.3 ft @ 14 secs early (10 ft) but fading fast. Residuals on Tues (12/3) fading from 4.1 ft @ 11-12 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 300 degrees moving to 290 degrees

 

Hawaiian Cutoff Gale
A cutoff low started building just east of the dateline on Sun PM (11/24) producing a small area of 45 kt north winds and seas building from 29 ft at 39N 176.5W aimed south. On Mon AM (11/25) the gale was fading while falling south with 40 kt north winds and seas 28 ft at 37.5N 176.5W aimed south. Fetch faded in the evening from 35 kts from the north with 23 ft seas over a small area falling south at 35N 175W. On Tues AM (11/26) 30 kt north winds were fading while falling south with 19 ft seas at 34N 176W aimed south and mostly bypassing Hawaii to the west. Swell expected for Hawaii.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Wed (11/27) building to 5.2 ft @ 13-14 secs (7 ft ) near noon. Swell fading on Thurs (11/28) from 3.8 ft @ 12 secs (4.5 ft). Dribbles on Fri (11/29) fading from 2.9 ft @ 10 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 315 degrees

 

North CA Gale
A gale developed in the far Eastern Gulf off North CA on Tuesday AM (11/26) with north winds building from 40-45 kts and seas 19 ft at 45N 135W aimed south. In the evening winds built to 60 kts from the north just off the CA-OR border with seas building to 39 ft at 41.5N 127W. On Wed AM (11/27) the storm moved onshore over North CA with a broad area 30+ kt north winds and 26 ft seas at 38N 125W (just off San Francisco) aimed south. Fetch fading off North CA in the evening from 30 kts with 19 ft seas aimed south at 34N 127W targeting all of Central and South CA. The gale to dissipate from there.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed AM (11/27) peaking just after sunrise at 16.2 ft @ 15 secs (24 ft) but heavily shadowed in the SF Bay Area. Swell fading some through the day. Swell fading on Thurs AM (11/28) from 8.1 ft @ 12-13 secs (10 ft) and shadowed in the SF Bay Area. Residuals on Fri (11/29) fading from 5.4 ft @ 11 secs (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 305-315 degrees

South CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (11/27) building to 4.9 ft @ 15 secs (7.0 ft) just after sunset only at the most exposed breaks. Swell fading Thurs (11/28) from 4.2 ft @ 13-14 secs early (5.5 ft) only at the most exposed breaks. Residuals on Fri (11/29) fading from 3.2 ft @ 12 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 305-315 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Wednesday (11/27) northwest winds are forecast at 30 kts off the coast of North and Central CA early and nearshore at 20 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA early fading to 10-15 kts later everywhere. Southern CA to have south winds at 15-20 kts all day. Rain forecast for all of North and Central CA early moving into Southern CA mid-day. Moderate steady snow for the Sierra all mainly early but continuing solid through the day into late evening. Thurs (11/28) a light north flow is forecast all day north of Pt Conception. Southwest winds are forecast for Southern CA at 10-15 kts mainly early. Light rain early for mainly Central CA down into Southern CA fading in Central CA later. Snow fading for the Tahoe area early but building in the Central and Southern Sierra. Fri (11/29) north winds are forecast at 10 kts early fading to calm later from Pt Conception northward. Southern CA to have west winds at 15 kts all day. Light rain for mainly Southern CA early. Light snow for the Central Sierra up to Tahoe. Sat (11/30) a light southeasterly flow is forecast for North and Central CA early turning southeast 35+ kts later. Light winds for Southern CA. Rain developing for all of North and Central CA late afternoon with snow for the Sierra in the evening. Sun (12/1) southeast winds are forecast at 10-15 kts early and 25+ kts for Cape Mendocino and Pt Conception fading some later. Rain for all of North and Central CA and some sprinkles for Southern CA later. Moderate snow for the Sierra all day and building to heavy for the Central Sierra in the evening. Mon (12/2) south winds to continue at 10-15 kts for all of North and Central CA building in Central CA to 20 kts later. Rain all day from Big Sur northward and pretty heavy for the Santa Cruz mountains up into San Francisco. Heavy snow for Tahoe early fading in the evening. Tues (12/3) south winds to continue at 15 kts for all of North and Central CA all day. Light steady rain for all of North and Central CA all day and evening. Steady snow for mainly Tahoe early building into the CEntral Sierra later. Wednesday (12/4) northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North and Central CA and 15+ kts for Southern CA. Rain early for North and Central CA fading late afternoon. Snow fading from the Sierra early.

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl and Kirkwood at 79, 80, 65 inches respectively and 29 inches down into Bear Mountain in Southern CA. The ski season is about to begin.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing fetch is occurring.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours another gale is to start building in the Northern Gulf of Alaska on Tues PM (12/3) with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas building from 23 ft at 49N 155W aimed southeast. On Wed AM (12/4) northwest winds to be 30+ kts with seas 22 ft at 45N 152W. In the evening 30-35 kts northwest winds are to be filling the Gulf targeting California with 20-21 ft seas over a large area centered at 42N 145W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Active MJO Fading - Kelvin Wave #6 Pushing East from Dateline

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 is fading out, but not yet completely gone, especially in the atmosphere. Likewise it looks like a La Nina ocean temperature pattern is developing in the equatorial East Pacific, with cooler than normal waters tracking west on the equator. We assumed El Nino like momentum will hold for a while in the atmosphere will take a while to sense that the ocean temperature pattern has changed. But once it does, a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern will start to develop. that transition is expected in the late Nov-early Dec timeframe. Even so, moderation from the PDO might prevent La Nina from fully developing. Given all that, there is decent probability for a normal start to the Fall surf season (in the Northern Hemisphere) meaning a normal amount of number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in a normal levels of swell, with normal duration and normal period. But by mid-Dec 2019, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start fading and as a result, swell production should fade slightly as well. This pattern is expected to hold through April 2020.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/26) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific fading over the Central Pacific then turning strong westerly over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral modest easterly over the far East equatorial Pacific turning neutral over the Central Pacific and then turning strong westerly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (11/27) westerly anomalies were moderate filling the KWGA today. The forecast calls for west anomalies holding moderately and filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 12/4. This is an improvement.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (11/26) A weak Inactive MJO signal was over the far west KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Inactive Phase is to be building on day 5 and moderate at day 10 and building to strong on day 15 filling the KWGA. The dynamic model indicates the Inactive Phase is to only build to modest status through day 15. So there is some disparity in the strength forecast between the 2 models.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (11/27) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the West Indian Ocean today and is to hold in that position through day 15. The GEFS model suggests the same thing, possibly migrating weakly to the East Indian Ocean at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (11/27) This model depicts a moderate Active MJO over the KWGA today. This Active Pattern is to track east steadily pushing into the Central America on 12/17 and then gone. A weak Inactive Phase is to start building in the West Pacific 12/10 tracking east while holding strength pushing into Central America at the end of the model run on 1/6. The Active Phase is to again start building over the KWGA on 12/22 pushing to the dateline on 1/6.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/26) This model depicts the Active Phase was holding strong in the core of the KWGA today with moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA and holding steady. West anomalies and the Active Phase of the MJO are to hold at moderate to strong strength in the core of the KWGA and filling it through 12/5 and then tracking east and out of the KWGA by 12/8. Beyond the Inactive Phase of the MJO is to start building into the far West KWGA starting 12/3 and filling the KWGA on 12/10 holding into 12/17, then starting to fade with weak west anomalies building on the dateline at the end of the model run on 12/24.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/27) This model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was gone in the KWGA but with west anomalies still solidly in control mainly on the dateline and the Inactive Phase starting to develop in the Western KWGA. The Inactive Phase is to build in the KWGA holding through 12/29 but with west anomalies forecast holding in the in the KWGA through 12/4 fading some, then rebuilding 12/15. Another modest Active Phase is to develop tracking east through the KWGA 12/26 through the end of the model run on 2/24. Weak west anomalies are forecast holding during that period but with east anomalies making a weak incursion into the far West KWGA 1/27-2/6 and again starting 2/19. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to the California coast. The second contour line is to hold for the foreseeable future after previously indicating it would fade. A high pressure bias built in the Indian Ocean starting 10/22 and is to hold through the end of the model run through getting slightly weaker at the end of the run. A strong area of east anomalies in the Indian Ocean is now forecast to significantly weaken by 2/5.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/27) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was backtracking to 178E while the 29 deg isotherm was backtracking to 171W. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 160W today. The 24 deg isotherm was backtracking to 105W today. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire Pacific with an interesting pocket at +2 degs building from the Maritime Continent moving east from 169W indicative of a new Kevin Wave (#6) building today. A broader area of warm water at +3 degs was centered at 103W pushing into Ecuador indicative of Kelvin Wave #5 pushing east there. Warm water was filling the entire equatorial subsurface Pacific from 110 meters upwards. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/19 indicates warm water from Westerly Wind Burst #5 had formed a Kelvin Wave extending from 150E under the Dateline east and impacting Ecuador with temps +2-3 degs over the whole area with a small pocket of cool anomalies previously just off Ecuador gone now. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/19) A modest area of positive anomalies were present on the equator between 130W east to Ecuador at +5 cms. A new pocket of +5 cms anomalies has developed back at 135E-179W. Negative anomalies were gone along Peru. A mostly neutral sea height pattern is setting up with a a few pockets biased positive.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (11/26) The latest images ( 1.2 3.4 ) indicate cooling anomalies were gone along the immediate coast of Peru with warming building there up into Ecuador with a stream of modest warm anomalies extending west on the equator over the Galapagos out to the dateline. Weak cool anomalies were south of the equator off Peru but fading fast reaching west to only 100W. Weak warm anomalies were on and north of the equator building while tracking west to the dateline.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/26): Today a massive area of warming was developing along Chile and Peru steaming west off Ecuador on the equator out to 100W. The short term trend is now towards warming in the far East South Pacific. This is a step in the right direction.
Hi-res Overview: (11/26) A weak fading area of cool anomalies is trying to hold on south of the equator and off Peru reaching out to 125W. Otherwise gentle warming is pushing west on the equator, strongest from 100W and points west of there on the equator and south to 5S. Warmer than normal water was north of the equator from the remnants of El Nino, but mostly gone south of the equator. Water temps appear to be stable mildly favoring El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/27) Today's temps were steady at +0.123 after previously dropping down to -1.921 degs on 10/10, that after falling to -1.8 degs on 9/15, then up to +0.030 on 10/2. Temps have been pretty consistently negative since June 1.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(11/27) Temps were falling hard today at -0.024. Temps previously rose on 11/14 to +0.509 degs, and that after previously bottoming out on 8/28 at -0.510 degs and 9/15 at -0.60 degs. The trend has been steadily generally upwards since Sept.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (11/27) Actual's indicate a cooling trend set up late summer with temps -0.2 degs in mid-Sept then rising to +0.25 degs in early Oct rising to +0.4 degs in early Nov. The forecast has temps fading to maybe +0.10 in Feb and then forecast rising some to 0.3 degs in May, then fading to -0.20 in late July. According to this model a neutral sea surface temperature pattern biased slightly warm is forecast for the mid-term, possibly turning neutral after that.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.25 degs, and are to hold in the +0.25 deg range into May 2020, then fading slightly to +0.15 in June 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (11/27): The daily index was negative today at -7.26 and has been mostly negative the last 35 days. The 30 day average was negative and falling at -9.90. The 90 day average was falling slightly at -9.40, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was developing.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): Sept +1.13, August +0.64, July +0.75, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.30, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (11/24):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHt_IeUpq64&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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