Click Here To Visit Mulcoy Travel!
Click Here to Visit Vunabaca!
> STORMSURF Video Surf Forecast for the Week Starting 7/27/2014 - See it HERE
Buoys | Buoy Forecast | Models | Pacific Forecast | QuikCAST | Chartroom | El Nino | Tutorials | Reports | Great Circles | News | Video

El Nino Southern Oscillation Quick-Look Images
(Current Observations and Forecasts)

 

--- Current Conditions ---

Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
Courtesy: NOAA NESDIS
Yellows represent warmer than normal waters (seasonally adjusted)/Blues are cooler than normal

 

 

Equatorial Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Wind and Water Temperature Anomaly
Courtesy: NOAA PMEL
Lower panel: West-to-east winds and warmer than normal water temps are indicative of El Nino

 

 

Equatorial Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Height Anomaly
Courtesy: NOAA CPC
Subsurface warm water is evidenced by increases in surface water height as compared to normal. Cold water at depth is evidenced by decreases in the surface water height. This data can be used to validate the presence of Kelvin waves in the equatorial Pacific. Data obtained from the Jason-2 satellite.

 

 

Equatorial Pacific Ocean Sub-Surface Water Temperature and Anomaly
Courtesy: NOAA PMEL
Kelvin waves are evidenced by pockets of warmer than normal water at the 200m depth. Over time they travel slowly west to east, rising to the surface in the far East Pacific as they impact the South American coast.

 

Animation (5 day Increments)
Courtesy: NOAA CPC

 

 

Southern Oscillation Index
Courtesy: BOM
Measures the relative surface pressure difference between Darwin Australia and Tahiti. Consistently negative values indicate El Nino, positive values La Nina. Short negative spikes are associated with the active phase of the MJO. Continual active MJO events contribute greatly to the SOI and each individual event can generate westerly wind bursts that result in Kelvin Waves.

 

 

Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)
(Total & Anomaly)
Courtesy: CPC/NCEP/NOAA
Negative values represent increased clouds (more sun radiation absorption)/Positive values indicate less clouds (more reflection) and the inactive phase. Broad areas of negative values over the equatorial Pacific tracking from the Indian Ocean in to the Western Pacific are normally associated with the active phase of the MJO. Also broad negative values can establish themselves over warm water associated with a developing El Nino.

 

 

Madden-Julian Oscillation: Global 850 mb Wind Anomaly
Courtesy: NOAA
Winds blowing strongly west-to-east represent a reversal of trade winds and potentially an Active Phase of the MJO/Winds blowing strongly east-to-west indicate above normal trades and the Inactive Phase

 

 

Madden-Julian Oscillation: West/East Pacific Current Precipitation and Wind Anomaly
Courtesy: Carl Schreck
Winds blowing strongly west-to-east represent a reversal of trade winds and potentially an Active Phase of the MJO/Winds blowing strongly east-to-west indicate above normal trades and the Inactive Phase


 

 

--- Forecast Conditions ---

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Forecast
CFSv2 - Nino 3.4 - Most Recent Ensemble
Courtesy: NCEP NOAA CPC

 

 

Madden-Julian Oscillation: West/East Pacific 180 hr GFS Forecast Precipitation and Wind Anomaly
Courtesy: Carl Schreck
Winds blowing strongly west-to-east represent a reversal of trade winds and potentially an Active Phase of the MJO/Winds blowing strongly east-to-west indicate above normal trades and the Inactive Phase


Animation: West - East

 

Madden-Julian Oscillation: Current and Forecast
30 Day 850 mb Zonal Wind Anomaly
- 5S-5N
Courtesy: Carl Schreck
This chart contains both prior zonal wind anomolies and forecast anomalies (at the bottom). Positive values represent anomalous winds blowing west-to-east and the active phase of the MJO/Negative values indicate above normal trades and the Inactive Phase

 

 

Madden-Julian Oscillation: OLR 15 day Forecast
Courtesy: NOAA
Negative values represent increased clouds (more sun radiation absorption) and the Active Phase of the MJO/Positive values indicate less clouds (more reflection) and the Inactive Phase. Broad areas of negative values over the equatorial Pacific tracking from the Indian Ocean in to the Western Pacific are normally associated with the Active Phase of the MJO. Also broad negative values can establish themselves over warm water associated with a developing El Nino.

 

 

Madden-Julian Oscillation: 200 mb/Jetstream 40 day Forecast
Courtesy: NOAA
Negative values represent increaseed wind speeds and the Active Phase of the MJO/Positive values indicate decreased wind speeds and the Inactive Phase.

13222

.

Contact | About | Disclaimer | Privacy
Advertise/Content | Links
Copyright © 2014 STORMSURF - All Rights Reserved
This page cannot be duplicated, reused or framed in another window without express written permission.
But links are always welcome.
Buoys | Buoy Forecast | Models | Pacific Forecast | QuikCAST | Chartroom | El Nino | Tutorials | Reports | Great Circles | Calculator | News