BUOY ROUNDUP
Thursday, March 27, 2025 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (3/27) in North and Central CA waves were 1 ft overhead and lined up but closed out breaking on the inner only and heavily warbled from brisk south winds. Protected breaks were chest to shoulder high lined up and clean but with a fair amount of south texture on it. At Santa Cruz surf was chest high and mushed and heavily warbled if not chopped from south wind. In Ventura County waves were chest high and lined up with decent form though a little warbled and sectioned though local winds was calm. Central Orange County had sets at chest high and lined up with decent form but warbled from northwest winds. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were thigh to maybe waist high on the rare sets and weakly lined up and real soft with poor form and heavily textured from northwest winds. North San Diego had sets at chest high and lined up with decent form and clean. Oahu's North Shore had sets to maybe waist high and clean and line dup but soft and weak. The South Shore had sets at waist to near chest high and lined up and clean. The East Shore was flat and clean with no trades early.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (3/27) California was starting to see swell from a local gale that developed off North CA on Wed-Thurs (3/27) with up to 32 ft seas aimed east. Hawaii was getting no swell of interest. After that one last local gale is potentially forecast off North CA on Wed-Thurs (4/3) with up to 28 ft seas aimed southeast. Then things go flat with no swell producing weather systems forecast. Springtime is here in the North Pacific. But a series of gales have developed south of New Zealand and 2 more are forecast. Summer is trying to start.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (3/27) the jetstream was was split over Japan with most energy ridging hard northeast tracking to the Kuril Islands then splitting again with more energy tracking northeast up north of the Bering Sea. It all consolidated north of Hawaii tracking east into Central CA with a weak trough just off the coast of North CA offering limited support for gale formation there. Over the next 72 hours more of the same is forecast but with most energy now tracking hard northeast over Japan and the Kuril Islands moving north of the Bering Sea then falling south over the Gulf of Alaska with winds 130 kts on Sun (3/30) re-energizing the trough off California offering good support for gale formation. Beyond 72 hours that trough is to form into a backdoor trough off North CA on Tues (4/1) being fed by 130-140 kts winds supporting gale formation and also pushing inland over the SF Bay Area supporting weather production. That trough is to get more organized Wed-Thurs (4/3) supporting gale formation off Central CA then moving onshore on Thurs (4/3). To the west the jet is to be totally fragmented and completely unorganized offering no support for gale formation. Clearly the Inactive Phase of the MJO is impacting the jet.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (3/27) California was getting fading swell from a gale that tracked over the dateline (see Second Japan Gales below) and building swell from a new gale that developed off the CA coast (see Local CA Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no meaningful swell development is forecast.

Second Japan Gale
And on Wed PM (3/19) a new gale started building off Japan with northwest winds 40 kts and seas building from 23 ft at 36N 153E aimed east. On Thurs AM (3/20) northwest winds built to storm status at 50-55 kts over a small area with seas building from 29 ft at 41.5N 163.5E aimed east. In the evening the storm tracked east with 50 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 43N 172E approaching the dateline. On Fri AM (3/21) west winds were 40 kts solid just starting to reach the dateline with seas 35 ft at 43.75N 178.5E aimed east. Fetch was fading in the evening from 35 kts straddling the dateline with seas 32 ft at 42.25N 179.5W aimed east and southeast. On Sat AM (3/22) the gale was inching into the far Western Gulf with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas 27 ft at 42.5N 174W aimed east. Fetch faded in the evening from 30 kts with seas 24 ft at 40.5N 168.5W aimed east. Fetch was fading fast Sun AM (3/23) 1000 nmiles north of Hawaii with northwest winds 25-30 kts and seas 22 ft at 39.5N 164W aimed southeast.

North CA: Swell fading Thurs (3/27) from 3.5 ft @ 13 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 299 degrees

Local California Gale
On Tues AM (3/25) low pressure was starting to build in the Central Gulf. In the evening it tracked east and built with winds 30-35 kts from the northwest and seas building. On Wed AM (3/26) west winds built to 45-50 kts with seas 30 ft at 39.75N 139.25W aimed east and southeast 775 nmiles west of North CA. In the evening the gale held position with 40-45 kt northwest winds and seas 32 ft at 39N 137W aimed east. On Thurs AM (3/27) fetch was pushing up to the CA-OR border from the west at 35-40 kts with seas 29 ft at 38.75N 135.5W or just off Pt Reyes aimed at the coast well. In the evening the center of the gale is to lift north just off Oregon with 30+ kt northwest winds targeting North and Central CA with seas 24 ft at 40.5N 133W. On Fri AM (3/28) fetch is to fade with seas 22 ft at 43.5N 131W aimed east or just off South Oregon and impacting it. .Swell for North and Central CA likely.

North CA: Expect swell building through the day Thurs (3/27) reaching 12.0 ft @ 14-15 secs later (16 ft). Swell fading some Fri (3/28) from 10.9 ft @ 14 secs early (15.0 ft). Residuals on Sat (3/29) fading from 7.5 ft @ 12-13 secs (9.5 ft). Dribbles on Sun (3/30) fading from 4.0 ft @ 10 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 275 moving to 295 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on early Fri AM (3/28) at 4.2 ft @ 15 secs early (6.0 ft). Swell fading Sat AM (3/29) from 4.2 ft @ 13-14 secs early (5.6 ft). Swell fading Sun AM (3/30) from 1.9 ft @ 11-12 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 293 moving to 300 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 5,000 ft on Fri (3/28) rising to 5,500-6,500 ft Sat-Sun (3/30) falling briefly late Mon (3/31) to 3,000 ft then back at mostly 5,500 ft Tues-Wed (4/2) falling to 4,000 ft beyond.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest is hitting or forecast.

Over the next 72 hours swell from a gale south of New Zealand is pushing northeast (see Mini New Zealand Gale below). And swell from a second gael that formed southeast of New Zealand is to be right on it's heels (see 2nd New Zealand Gale below).

A gale is forecast developing south of New Zealand on Sat AM (3/29) producing south winds at 40-45 kts with seas building. In the evening south winds to be 55-60 kts over a small area aimed north with seas 38 ft over a tiny area at 67.75S 169.75E aimed north. On Sun AM (3/30) south winds to be 45-50 kts over 600 nmiles aimed northeast with seas 37-39 ft at 62.5S 175.25W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds to fade from 40+ kts with seas 36 ft at 64.25S 171.75W aimed northwest. Fetch fading out on Mon AM (3/31) from 30-35 kts and seas 29 ft at 65S 160W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Mini New Zealand Gale
A small gale developed south-southeast of New Zealand Wed AM (3/19) with 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 62S 173E aimed northeast. In the evening winds were 40-45 kts from the southwest and seas 31 ft at 61.75S 176.25W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (3/20) southwest winds were 30-40 kts over a broad area aimed well northeast with seas 27 ft at 56S 161W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch lifted northeast at 30-35 kts over a broad area with seas fading from 26 ft at 50S 151W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (3/21) southwest winds faded from 30-35 kts aimed well northeast with seas 25 ft at 48S 147W aimed well northeast. Fetch and seas faded in the evening from 24-25 ft at 42S 144W aimed well northeast. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (3/27) building to 1.2 ft @ 17 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell peaks on Fri (3/28) at 1.4 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell fading Sat (3/29) from 1.1 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 191 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (3/29) building to 1.6 ft @ 17 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell peak Sun (3/30) at 2.1 ft @ 16 secs early (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading some Mon (3/31) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Tues (4/1) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 206 degrees

2nd New Zealand Gale
Another gale started developing Fri AM (3/21) south of New Zealand with 45-50 kt west winds and 55 kt south winds producing seas at 37 ft at 63.5S 173E aimed east and northeast. In the evening the gale tracked east with south to southwest winds 45-50 kts and seas 40 ft at 67.25S 178.5E aimed northeast. On Sat (3/22) southwest winds were 40-45 kts with 38 ft seas at 66.25S 165W aimed east-northeast. Fetch fading in the evening from 30 kts aimed northeast with seas 31 ft at 63.75S 149.75W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated after that. More swell is radiating northeast.

Oahu: No meaningful swell to result given the storm was not aimed at the Islands.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (3/30) building to 1.2 ft @ 19-20 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell builds on Mon (3/31) to 1.5 ft @ 17-18 secs mid-AM (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell holding Tues (4/1) at 1.5 ft @ 16 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell continues Wed (4/2) at 1.5 ft @ 15 secs(2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (4/3) from 1.5 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Residuals on Fri (4/4) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees Very Inconsistent given the small fetch area.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast building off North CA on Wed (4/2) producing 28 ft seas at 38.5N 133W aimed east. Otherwise no swell production is forecast.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours perhaps another gale is to develop southeast of New Zealand on Wed AM (4/2) with southwest winds 40-45 kts and seas building from 30 ft at 65S 175W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds to be 40 kts with seas 34 ft at 67S 161.5S aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds to fade from 35 kts and seas 30 ft at 65.25S 152.5W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

Modoki La Nina Fading Out
MJO Pattern Weak
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak Modoki La Nina mode focused on the dateline, and expected to start fading beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (3/26) 5 day average winds were calm over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were moderate west over the East Pacific and modest west over the Central Pacific and moderate east the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (3/27) Today strong east anomalies were filling the East KWGA and moderate west anomalies were over the western 50% of the KWGA. The forecast indicates east anomalies are to fill the KWGA 4/28 through 3/31 then collapsing with neutral anomalies 4/4 and beyond. Modest west anomalies are forecast trying to push into the far West Pacific 4/1-4/7 then fading with a neutral wind pattern over the KWGA and holding through the end of the model run on 4/12.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (3/27) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone. The 28 deg isotherm line had retrograded from 177E to 170E but was easing east again to 173E. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador and reasonably solid in depth over all the width of the equatorial Pacific if not building in density the east. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West Pacific and +1 degs in the East Pacific. A pocket of cooler anomalies at -2 degs were present down 110 meters at 150W and 120W with -1 degs anomalies reaching east to 105W and blocked from more eastward progress by warmer water in the east. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/19 indicates cold anomalies were filling the the thermocline from 160E east to 80W at mostly -0.5 to -1.0 degs but with warm anomalies now present 110W reaching from depth up to the surface and expanding east and west there. The density and volume of cold water at depth was declining fast. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building while steady at 165W. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/19) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were neutral from Ecuador to 135W and positive in a small pocket at 110W then negative at -5 to -10 cms from 130W west to 178W with 2 pockets to -20 cms straddling the equator at 155W. It appears the cool pool is fading and moving west. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (3/19) the cool pool was collapsing if not gone with one last remnant at 160W at.-0.5 to -1.0 degs below normal. Weak warm anomalies were between 85W-120W. A La Nina pattern is all but gone. Warmer waters were building in the west in coverage reaching east to 175W.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (3/26) The latest images depict a La Nina cool pool was expanding over the central equatorial Pacific between 145W (previously 140W) to 155E and less concentrated between those points than days past through slightly broader in coverage. Cool anomalies were streaming off the California coast falling southwest and feeding this pool outlining the normal Springtime Gulf of Alaska high pressure system. Warm anomalies were over the East Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 115W and building in density and also filling the far West Pacific. This looks like a Modoki La Nina (westward displaced) and building slightly fueled by the current Inactive MJO.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (3/26): Temps were weakly cooling over the East Equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos to 120W likely the effects of a building Inactive MJO. Temps were warming from 130W to New Guina.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/27) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were rebuilding some at +0.631 after falling to +0.409 (3/23) after peaking at +1.5 on 3/4. Temps started warming steadily from -0.962 on 1/28. Previously temps held near -0.5 degs starting 11/30. They peaked at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/27) Today's temps were steady at -0.185 after fading to -0.399 (3/21) fueled by a building Inactive MJO, and that after after peaking at +0.262 (slightly warm) on 3/14 and started rising on 1/25 from -1.5 degs after peaking at -1.106 (1/18) and had been generally slowly rising after dropping to -1.429 (12/27). Previously anomalies were on a steady decline from -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were negative at -0.1 week of 3/19. Previously temps were +0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8), -1.1 (1/25) coldest so far, -0.8 (12/18),-0.6 (12/11), -0.3 (12/4 and 11/27).
Monthly Data is -0.29 Feb, -0.74 Jan, -0.60 Dec, -0.25 Nov, -0.27 Oct., -0.26 Sept, -0.12 August, +0.05 July, +0.17 June, +0.23 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -1.18 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND), -0.81 (SON), -0.75 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.50 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.25 (AMJ), +0.07 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.87 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.46 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.50 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb. Then temps started fading down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2 in Nov then down to -0.7 in Dec 2024, -0.75 in Jan 2025 and -0.6 in Feb. Temp unexpectedly rose to +0.075 degs in March. Temps continue to not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as this model forecasted, including Jan, Feb and March 2025.
Forecast (3/27) - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March but are to fade in April to -0.30, rising to +0.15 in July and rising gradually to +0.70 degs in Oct-Nov. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. In all it looks like we're moving out of a weak La Nina to a neutral pattern.
IRI Consensus Plume: The March 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.196 (up from -0.435 degs last month) and is the 10th month below neutral since El Nino faded. Temps to rise slightly to -0.090 degs in June-July-Aug. The Dynamic model suggest temps rising from here to -0.046 JJA then falling to -0.320 SON then rising some to -0.257 at the end of the model run on NDJ. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to -0.094 JJA dropping to -0.290 OND and up to -0.282 NDJ. In other words, we are well past the peak of La Nina now moving fast to ENSO neutral. The models generally suggests a return to near neutral biased slightly cool next Fall.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (3/27) the Daily Index was positive at +13.64 and weakly positive the last month, negative the previous 9 days, positive the previous 28 days, negative the previous 18 days, but otherwise mostly positive before that.
The 30 day average was rising some at +7.01 and has been generally falling the last month, through still weakly in La Nina territory.
The 90 day average was steady at +5.21 and weakly in La Nina territory. .

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec and now -1.32 in Jan and -1.45 in Feb. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table