Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.7 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 13.5 secs from 185 degrees. Water temp 79.2 (Barbers Pt), 79.3 (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.7 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were NA ft @ NA secs with swell NA ft @ NA secs from NA degrees. Water temp 77.9 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 3.8 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 3.0 ft @ 6.6 secs from 35 degrees. Water temp 79.0 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 3.5 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 15.3 secs from 184 degrees. Wind east 10-14 kts. Water temperature 68.7 degs, 55.9 (Harvest 071), 68.0 (Topanga 103), 65.1 (Long Beach 215), 67.6 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 67.6 (Del Mar 153), 70.3 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.2 ft @ 15.3 secs from 189 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.2 ft @ 6.3 secs from 274 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.8 ft @ 15.4 secs from 192 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 3.6 ft @ 15.1 secs from 191 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 3.6 ft @ 14.9 secs from 188 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.1 ft @ 14.2 secs from 192 degrees. Water temperature 68.5 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 6.0 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 3.4 ft @ 15.7 secs from 196 degrees. Wind NA (Bodega Bay 46013), NW 12-14 kts San Francisco (46026), NW 14-16 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NA (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 50.2 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 53.6 (San Francisco 46026), 56.7 (SF Bar 142), 53.8 (Half Moon Bay 1801589), 52.9 (Monterey Bay 46092) and NA (Soquel Cove S).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (7/5) in North and Central CA surf was waist to maybe chest high coming from the northwest and warbled and mushed and somewhat lined up and soft. Protected breaks were flat to knee high and mushed and a bit warbled and unremarkable. At Santa Cruz surf was chest to head high on the sets and lined up with good form and clean but a little northwest warble in the water. In Ventura County waves were chest to shoulder high on the sets and somewhat lined up and soft but fairly clean but with some underlying warble coming from the northwest. Central Orange County had sets at chest to head high and lined up and a bit closed out and clean early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at 1-2 ft overhead and lined up and sometimes nearly closed out with clean conditions and no wind. North San Diego had sets at head high and super lined up and closed out and clean with no wind early. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had sets to waist high and weakly lined up with good form and clean. The East Shore was getting trade wind generated east windswell at waist high and lightly chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (7/5) Hawaii was getting no swell of interest. And California was seeing the back end of swell originating from a gale that developed over the far Southeast Pacific Wed-Thurs (6/26) producing 31-32 ft seas over a small area aimed north. Another even smaller gale developed over the Southeast Pacific lifting northeast on Sat (6/28) producing 28 ft seas aimed northeast. That swell is tracking north towards CA. Beyond a small gale was developing on the eastern edge of the CA swell window Fri-Sat (7/5) producing 32 ft seas aimed north. And another gale is to develop Mon-Tues (7/8) just over the northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf Ice Anomaly producing 30-36 ft seas aimed northeast. But after that things are to go quiet.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Saturday (7/5) no swell of interest was hitting our forecast area.

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are forecast or being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Sun AM (7/6) northwest winds start building in coverage over North CA at 20-25 kts and northwest winds 10-15 kts for Central CA early and 20 kts off the coast. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 25-30 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts nearshore for the rest of North CA down over Central CA but 15 kts for the southern half of Central CA. Windswell likely building later.
Mon AM (7/7) northwest winds to be 25 kts off the coast of Cape Mendocino but 10 kts nearshore and 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds fade from 20 kts off Cape Mendocino and 5-10 kts nearshore for North and Central CA. Windswell fading some later.
Tues AM (7/8) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and south 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon south winds to be 5-10 kts for North and Central CA. Windswell fading out.
Wed AM (7/9) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North Ca and 5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds build to 15+ kts nearshore for North and Central CA. Windswell building slightly.
Thurs AM (7/10) the gradient returns with northwest winds 25-30 kts over Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 20 kts for the rest of North and all of Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 30-35 kts for Cape Mendocino and 20-25 kts for the rest of North CA and 15-20 kts over Central CA. Windswell building.
Fri AM (7/11) northwest winds to be 30-35 kts for Cape Mendocino but only 10 kts from Bodega Bay southward over all of Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds fade from 25-30 kts for Cape Mendocino and 15 kts down to the Golden Gate and 10 kts for Central CA. Windswell holding solid.
Sat AM (7/12) northwest winds to be 25 kts for Cape Mendocino early and 10 kts south of Pt Arena down over all of Central CA. Windswell fading but not out.

Sierra Hikers Temperature Forecast (Intersection of the Pacific Crest Trail and Tioga Pass Road at 8,700 ft): Temps 50-55 degs on Sat (7/5) moving to 60 degs solid Sun (7/6) and beyond then 60-65 degs Thurs 7/10 and beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (7/5) the jet was weak and ridging south over the Southwest and South Central Pacific reaching down to 70S offering no support for gale formation. But over the Southeast Pacific a weak trough was developing being fed by 110 kt winds perhaps offering some support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to track east moving east of the CA swell window on Sun (7/6) offering nothing. But on Sun (7/6) a new trough is forecast starting to lift north over the Southwest Pacific being fed by 130-140 kts winds offering support for gale development and sweeping east while building on Mon-Tues (7/8) with 160 kt south winds lifting due north positioned over the South Central Pacific moving to the Southeast Pacific offering great support for gale development. beyond 72 hours starting Wed (6/9) that trough is to continue holding while easing slowly east into late Thurs (7/10) continuing to support gale formation. But to the west a stronger ridge is to be building while pushing over the Ross Ice Shelf Wed (7/9) and sweeping east covering the entire South Pacific on Fri (7/11) offering no support for gale formation and holding through the end of the model run on Sat (7/12).

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (7/5) swell was still hitting California originating from a gale that developed over the Southeast Pacific with fetch and seas aimed well northeast offering potential for surf (see Small Southeast Pacific Gale below). And another push of swell is tracking north from a small gale previously in the Southeast Pacific (see Final Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Fri PM (7/4) a gale started developing over the Southeast Pacific with 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 58.25S 132W aimed northeast. On Sat AM (7/5) southwest winds held at 40-45 kts aimed well north with seas 32 ft at 55.75S 124.5W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch fades from 35 kts and moving east of the Southern CA swell window with seas fading from 28 ft at 52.25S 115.75W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Sun (7/13) building to 1.3 ft @ 17 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell peaks Mon (7/14) at maybe 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (7/15) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed (7/16) fading from 2.0 ft @ 13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 188 degrees

North CA: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Sun (7/13) building to 1.0 ft @ 17 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell peaks Mon (7/14) at maybe 1.3 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (7/15) from 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles on Wed (7/16) fading from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 188 degrees

Small Southeast Pacific Gale
Remnants of the tropical gale supported by a trough over the area started organizing Wed AM (6/26) producing south winds at 45-50 kts over a small area aimed north starting to get traction on the oceans surface. In the evening 40-45 kt south winds were building in coverage with seas building from 30 ft over a small area at 46.75S 133W aimed north. On Thurs AM (6/26) fetch was falling south some holding at 40-45 kts solid with seas 31 ft at 49S 131W aimed north. In the evening 35-40 kt south winds were fading while inching east with seas 30 ft at 48.5S 130W aimed northeast. Fetch faded Fri AM (6/27) from the southwest at 30-35 kts and seas fading from 25 ft at 45S 125W aimed northeast. Fetch dissipated after that. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Swell fading some Sat (7/5) from 2.5 ft @ 15 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading Sun (7/6) from 2.4 ft @ 13-14 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 187 degrees

North CA: Swell holds Sat (7/5) at 2.5 ft @ 15 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading Sun (7/6) from 2.5 ft @ 14 secs early (3.5 ft). Dribbles on Mon (7/7) fading from 2.0 ft @ 13 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees

Final Southeast Pacific Gale
A gale developed over the Southeast Pacific Sat AM (6/28) producing southwest winds at 35-40 kts and seas building from 24 ft at 50S 137W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds pushed northeast at 35-40 kts with seas 29 ft at 50S 141.25W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading Sun AM (6/29) from 30+ kts over a broad area aimed northeast with seas 25 ft aimed northeast at 44.5S 133.25W aimed northeast. Fetch and seas to be gone after that. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (7/6) building to 1.7 ft @ 17 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell building Mon (7/7) to 2.0 ft @ 15 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (7/8) from 2.3 ft @ 14 secs (3.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed (7/9) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (7/6) building to 1.6 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell building Mon (7/7) to 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (7/8) from 2.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Dribbles on Wed (7/9) fading from 1.9 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 187 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours starting Sun PM (7/6) a gale is forecast developing southeast of New Zealand with 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas building from 25 ft at 60S 173W but impacting the Ross Ice Anomaly. On Mon AM (7/7) southwest winds are be be lifting northeast at 40 kts covering a solid area with seas 31 ft at 60S 163W just and dispersing the Ice Anomaly. In the evening southwest winds to be 40-45 kts over a broad area over the Southeast Pacific with and core to 50 kts and seas 33 ft at 56S 153.5W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (7/8) the gale is to be over the far Southeast Pacific with a new core at 45 kts from the southwest and seas 30 ft at 51S 142W aimed northeast. Fetch continues in the evening tracking east at 35-40 kts with seas 31 ft at 59S 125W aimed east-northeast. Fetch is to linger Wed Am (7/9) over the Southeast Pacific with 31 ft seas at 57S 120W aimed east-northeast. After that all fetch targeting only South America. Something to monitor.

La Nina is Gone
Weak West Anomalies Over the KWGA
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak Modoki La Nina mode focused on the dateline, and starting to fade.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but by late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina, it seemed La Nina would not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025, which it did. La Nina was fading fast in the ocean by April 2025 but the effects on the atmosphere will take 3 months to materialize. So for the Summer of 2025 we should be moving from a weak Modoki La Nina pattern atmospherically to a neutral ENSO pattern by July. The PDO also appears to be trending towards neutral after a long and deep run negative. The net result is a trend towards ENSO neutral as Summer progresses. The big question is will a neutral ENSO set up an atmosphere with no momentum, or will the push from La Nina to neutral result in net momentum supportive of storm development. At least for the moment (4/27/25), the southern hemi is incredibly productive for the time of year, suggesting there is good momentum in the atmosphere. We suspect some sort of near 'normal' summertime swell production potential will play out - not negatively influenced ny La Nina but not enhanced by a developing El Nino either. Just totally normal, if such a thing is even possible.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/4) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak west over the far East Pacific and weak east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (7/5) Today modest west anomalies were reaching east to 150E filling 50% of the KWGA and moderate east anomalies east of there. This pattern is to basically hold with minor variations through the end of the model run on 7/21 but with the split point between the west and east anomalies slowly easing east to 165E the last day of the model run. West anomalies are to be building in strength over the Maritime Continent starting 7/10.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (7/4) Currently a neutral MJO (neither dry or wet air) was filling the KWGA. The statistic model depicts a neutral MJO holding for the next 2 weeks. The Dynamic model indicates the same thing but with a weak Active (wet air) pattern building on days 10-15 of the model run over the KWGA.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (7/5) - The models depict the Active Phase was very weak over the Maritime Continent today. The statistic model has it meandering over the Maritime Continent for the next 15 days and still very weak. The dynamic model indicates the same thing but building to moderate status over the Central Maritime Continent 2 weeks out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (7/5) This model depicts a weak to modest Active Phase (wet air) stationary over the Central Maritime Continent. The forecast has it moving into the West KWGA 7/10 then tracking slowly east over the KWGA through 7/25. After that a weak Inactive Phase (dry air) is to set up over the KWGA 7/30 filling it through the last day of the model run on 8/14 while tracking east. But this model been teasing eastward movement of the Active Phase for 2 months now with none of that actually occurring. The MJO appears to be stuck over the Maritime Continent and very weak.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/4) Today moderate west anomalies were reaching east to 150E with weak east anomalies east of there. West anomalies are to be building east over the dateline at moderate strength starting 7/5 and holding through 7/11 with a single active contour tracking east over that area and then east of the dateline 7/17. East anomalies are to set up from about 150E and points east of there beyond through the end of the model run on 8/1. West anomalies are to hold over the far West KWGA.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/5) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a single active contour and weak west anomalies were filling the KWGA. This pattern is to hold through 7/15 when the active Contours fade but west anomalies are to hold if not building east to the dateline into 7/21. A weak single Inactive contour is to set up 7/22 in the west reaching the dateline 7/26 holding through 8/12 but with weak west anomalies filling the KWGA. On 8/6 a legit Active Phase develops over the West KWGA building with 4 contours filling the KWGA and holding in some capacity through the end of the model run on 10/2 with west anomalies building to moderate status west of the dateline 8/12-9/5. East anomalies are to hold east of the KWGA with the dividing line between east and west anomalies 170E starting from early July onwards. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (started 4/28/24) with one contour and is to start slowly easing east into the West Pacific 7/11 and then moving more aggressively east 8/14 reaching 150E at the end of the model run. The high pressure bias was over the dateline with 1 contour. That contour is already easing east and is forecast collapsing east to the dateline 7/12 (to 150W) returning to 160E mid-Aug and holding there beyond. This suggests La Nina is to be fading and easing east but still present over the dateline with low pressure over the West Pacific beyond.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: The array is now fully operational east of 160E.
Today (7/5) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was easing east to 178W. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking some from 155W to now 160W. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador at 1 meter deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific down 150m and running east continuous across the equatorial thermocline building to +2 degs in the East Pacific down 35m. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/27 indicates neutral to slightly warm anomalies were filling the upper thermocline (75 meters or higher) with what appears to be a Kelvin Wave pushing east from the dateline to the East Pacific on the thermocline 100-150 meters down undercutting the remnants of what was a cool pool with the Kelvin Wave reaching east the whole way across the Pacific to 100W. And very warm anomalies were filling the deep West Pacific offering more potential beyond. And weak warm anomalies were filling the deep East Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/27) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were neutral 2 degrees north and south of the equator and weakly positive in the east and somewhat stronger positive in the west reaching east to 170E. Negative anomalies at up to -10 cms were 5 degrees north of the equator at 160W and 130W and -20 cms 7 degrees south of the equator at 130W. It appears the cool pool is gone over the equator. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (6/27) the cool pool was gone (dissipated on 4/12). Warm anomalies were filling the West Pacific building in a wave pushing east on the equator across the Pacific to 130W and building east to 95W with neutral anomalies east of there to Ecuador. No cool anomalies were indicated nor have been since 4/20. It looks like a significant Downwelling Kelvin Wave is sweeping east across the equatorial Pacific. La Nina is gone.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (7/4) The latest images depict neutral to weakly warming water temps filling the Equatorial Pacific. Warm anomalies were north and south of the equator too. Cool anomalies were streaming off the California coast falling southwest reaching to 15N then dissipating outlining the normal Springtime Gulf of Alaska high pressure system. Warmer anomalies were over the East and West Equatorial Pacific. This looks like ENSO Neutral. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were over the West Pacific with cooler waters from the dateline and points east of there.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/4): Temps continued to be neutral across the entire equatorial Pacific, though some warming was present in a thin stream 100W-130W and cooling from the Galapagos west to 100W.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/5) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were up slightly today at +0.139 after being down at -0.2 (6/25), falling from +0.31 on 6/15, down at -0.087 6/12, +0.38 on 6/8, and previously up to +0.426 degs (5/29).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/5) Today's temps were steady at -0.087 after being steady at -0.136 previously up at -0.173 (6/4) and had been falling 5/8-5/16 from 0.00 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were rising steady at 0.1 on 6/25. Previously temps were +0.2 (6/18), 0.0 (6/4 & 6/11), -0.1 (5/28), -0.2 (5/21), -0.1 degs (5/14), +0.1 (5/17), -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.16 May, -0.14 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.53 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May.
Forecast (7/5) - Temps to hold at 0.00 degs into July then are to start falling August reaching down to -0.55 degs in Nov, then rising back to neutral in March 2026. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same but with temp falling to only -0.50 degs. It looks like we've moved out of a weak La Nina and now in a neutral pattern biased cool holding through the Winter of '25/26.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 20, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are up to -0.067. Temps to slowly fall to -0.266 in Nov, then rising some from there. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.147 NDJ then rising some to +0.140 at the end of the model run on FMA. The Statistic model suggests temps falling to -0.363 NDJ rising to -0.307 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are ENSO neutral now and forecast to hold there into Winter 25-26.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (7/5) the Daily Index was negative at -16.89 and have been generally positive the last 16 days, negative 6 days before that, toggling around neutral 5/30-6/13, solidly positive 5/23-5/29 (6 days) previous, mostly negative the previous 22 days and mixed 7 days prior, but otherwise steadily positive the previous month.
The 30 day average was falling at +0.42 and has been generally falling the last month and now in ENSO neutral territory.
The 90 day average was falling at +1.75 and on the high side of ENSO neutral.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index continued rising to -1.45 in Feb 2025, -1.12 in March and -1.18 in April then falling to -1.71 in May. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still barely in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening. That said, we are 2 months into being above -1.2. Maybe there is some hope after all.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.