Surf Forecasts and Marine Weather - No Hype - Just the Facts!
See Video Forecast HERE (11/29)
Buoys | Buoy Forecast | Models: Wave - Weather - Surf - Altimetry - Snow | Pacific Forecast | QuikCAST | El Nino | Tutorials | Great Circles | Video

Google

Stormsurf Mobile App

Create Your Own Surf Forecast
Swell Calculator
Swell Decay Tables
Sea Height Tables
Swell Category Table
Convert from GMT:
 
 to timezone:

---

Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Sunday, November 29, 2020 5:49 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
4.5 - California & 4.8 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 11/30 thru Sun 12/6

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Strong Storm #1 Forming
More Possible Behind

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Sunday, November 29, 2020 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 1.9 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 1.1 ft @ 13.6 secs from 210 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 7.2 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 3.6 ft @ 12.7 secs from 333 degrees. Water temp 80.6 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 1.9 ft @ 18.9 secs with swell 0.8 ft @ 18.1 secs from 176 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southeast at 8-10 kts. Water temperature 60.6 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.0 ft @ 14.3 secs from 304 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.9 ft @ 18.7 secs from 228 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.8 ft @ 18.6 secs from 214 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 0.9 ft @ 18.8 secs from 181 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.8 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 13.3 ft from 301 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 12-14 kts. Water temp 51.4 degs (013), 54.9 degs (SF Bar) and 53.2 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

 
Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (11/29) in North and Central CA small swell from the Northwester Gulf was still hitting producing waves at waist to chest high and lined up and clean with offshore winds but a bit on the soft side. Protected breaks were waist high and clean and soft. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high or so on the rare sets and clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves flat to thigh high and a bit ruffled by brisk northwesterly wind. Central Orange County had some thigh high sets breaking just off the beach and soft but very clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were thigh to maybe waist high on the rare sets and clean. North San Diego was flat and clean. Hawaii's North Shore was getting windswell with waves near head high on the sets at top breaks and clean but with a bunch of warble in the water. The South Shore was flat to knee high and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell with waves waist to chest high and lightly chopped from moderate northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (11/29) swell was fading in California from a weak gale that tracked through the Northwestern Gulf Tues-Thurs (11/26) with up to 28 ft seas aimed east. Another modest swell is right behind from a gale previously in the Northwestern Gulf Fri-Sun (1/29) with up to 39 ft seas aimed east. And a far stronger storm is developing (see Storm #1 below).

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (11/29) the jet was well consolidated pushing hard off Japan with winds building to 180 kts pushing due east to the dateline forming a trough just north of it just west of the dateline offering great support for gale if not storm development there. East of there the jet ridged weakly north up to the Eastern Aleutians then fell into a weak trough over the Northern Gulf offering a little support for gale development then splitting with most energy pushing northeast from there up into Central Canada. Over the next 72 hours wind energy in the jet pushing off Japan is to build to 200 kts on Mon (11/3) feeding the trough now relocated east in the Northwestern Gulf continuing to provide great support for storm development with the trough still in place early Wednesday and still looking productive. Beyond 72 hours amazingly the trough is to continue holding in the Western Gulf on Thursday into early Fri (12/4) with 150 kts winds still feeding it while 180 kt winds again start building from Japan reaching east to the dateline with a new trough starting to carve out on the dateline while the original trough finally starts pinching off. By Sun (12/6) a broad trough is forecast filling the area just east of the dateline into the Western Gulf with 150 kts winds solid over that entire area offering great support for gale development while a ridge just barely holds over the US West Coast. This 180 hour forecast is looking amazingly good.


Surface Analysis
On Sunday (11/29) small swell from a gale that previously tracked over the North Dateline region into the Northwestern Gulf was fading in CA (see Small Northwest Gulf Gale below). Swell from a stronger gale that pushed through the Northern Gulf was poised to hit California (see Another Northwest Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours Storm #1 is forecast tracking over the dateline into the Gulf of Alaska (see Storm #1 below).

 

Storm #1
A small but potent storm started developing in the West Pacific on Sat PM (11/28) a bit off North Japan with west-northwest winds at 55-60 kt and seas building from 34 ft at 43N 163E aimed east. On Sun AM (11/29) the storm was approaching the dateline with 60 kt west-northwest winds and seas building from 53 ft at 44N 171.5E aimed east. In the evening a broad area of 50 kt west winds are to be straddling the dateline with 55 ft seas at 44N 180W aimed east. On Mon AM (11/30) the gale is to be solid in coverage with 450 kt west-northwest winds and seas 51 ft at 42N 172W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to be fading with 35-40 west-northwest winds 1200 nmiles northwest of Hawaii in the Western Gulf with seas fading from 44 ft at 42N 165.5W aimed east. On Tues AM (12/1) west winds are to be fading from 30 kts with seas fading from 34 ft at 41.5N 158W aimed east. Large long period swell is expected to result.

Oahu: For planning purposes expected swell arrival later on Tues (12/1) building to 8.4 ft @ 20-21 secs (17 ft Hawaiian). Swell heading upward from there peaking at sunrise Wed (12/2) at 12.9 ft @ 18 secs (23 ft Hawaiian). Swell holding decently through the day. Swell fading on Thurs (12/3) from 7.6 ft @ 14-15 secs early (11 ft). Residuals fading on Fri (12/4) from 5.6 ft @ 12-13 secs (7.0 ft). Swell Direction: 318-331 degrees focused on 326 degrees

North California: Expect a bit less size but more waves per set later in the week.

 

Small Northwest Gulf Gale
On Tues PM (11/24) another gale developed in the extreme Northwestern Gulf with 30 kt west winds and seas building from 26 ft at 50N 164W aimed east. On Wed AM (11/25) west winds were fading from 30 kts from the west with seas fading from 26 ft aimed east at 53N 156W. In the evening the gale is to fade out with seas from previous fetch fading from 22 ft at 53N 152W aimed east. Small sideband swell is possible.

North CA: Swell fading on Sun (11/29) from 3.6 ft @ 14 secs (5.0 ft). Dribbles on Mon (11/30) fading from 3.9 ft @ 12-13 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 305-312 degrees

 

Another Northwest Gulf Gale
And another small gale developed in the far Northwestern Gulf on Fri AM (11/27) with 40-45 kt west winds just south of the Central Aleutians producing 31 ft seas over a tiny area at 51.5N 171.5W aimed east. In the evening the gale tracked east with 45-50 kt west winds building in the Northwestern Gulf with 37 ft seas building over a small area at 52.5N 165.5W aimed east. On Sat AM (11/28) west winds were gaining footprint in the Northwestern Gulf at 40-45 kts with 38 ft seas at 51N 158.5W aimed east. The gale was fading in the evening with 30-35 kt west winds and seas fading from 31 ft at 53.5N 148W aimed east.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (11/30) building through the day to 4.8 ft @ 17-18 secs late (8.0 ft) and shadowed in the SF Bay Area. Swell to peak before sunrise Tues (12/1) pushing 7.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (10 ft) but still shadowed. Swell fading on Wed (12/2) from 5.6 ft @ 13 secs early (7.0 ft). Swell Direction:309 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical weather system of interest were being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Sunday (11/29) northwest winds were 10 kts over outer waters but light nearshore and forecast holding all day. Mon (11/30) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts early for North CA and down to the south end of Monterey Bay but 15 kts for the remainder of Central CA early building to 10-15 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay. Perhaps some light showers for Cape Mendocino midday. Tues (12/1) the wind machine tries to start up with north winds 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and off the coast south of there at 15 kts early but light nearshore pretty much holding all day. Wed (12/2) northwest winds are forecast at 10+ kts early for all of North and Central CA and continuing all day but maybe 15 kts for Monterey Bay and down into Central CA in the afternoon. Thurs (12/3) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts early for all of North and Central CA fading to 10 kts mid-day. Fri (12/4) north winds are forecast at 10 kts for Cape mendocino early but light from Bodega bay southward if not light northeast and holding all day. Sat (12/5) calm winds are forecast early for all of Central CA but perhaps light south for Cape Mendocino turning cal there mid-day and building northwest to 15 kts in the afternoon for Central CA south of Monterey Bay. Sun (12/6) north winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA down to Monterey Bay early and 10-15 kts to Pt Conception building to 15-20 kts everywhere in the afternoon.

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0 inches, 0 inches, 0 inches, and 0 inches respectively.

Freezing level 9.000 Sunday (11/29) rising to 12,000 ft on Dec 1 and holding for the foreseeable future.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Sunday (11/29) no swell was in the water and no swell producing weather systems were occurring.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a local gale is forecast developing off Central CA on Fri PM (12/4) with 40 kt west winds and seas building from 26 ft over a small area at 35N 149W aimed east. On Sat AM (12/5) the gale is to lift northeast with 45 kt west winds and seas 29-30 ft at 40N 139W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to lift hard north with 45 kt west winds off Vancouver Island and seas 30 ft at 48N 136W aimed north of the North CA swell window. Something to monitor.

Of more interest is another strong storm forecast developing on the dateline on Fri PM (12/4) producing 55 kt northwest winds and seas building from 43 ft at 42N 179.5E aimed east. On Sat AM (12/5) the gael is to sweep east with 55-60 kts west winds and seas building from 56 ft at 42N 172.5W aimed east. The gale is to plod east in the evening with 50-55 kt west winds in the Western Gulf with seas 59 ft at 43.5N 164W aimed due east. On Sun (12/6) the gale is to start fading with 45-50 kt west winds and seas fading from 52 ft at 44.5N 158W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to continue fading in the Northern Gulf with 40 kt west winds and seas fading from 42 ft at 46N 153.5W aimed east.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast. The southern hemi is asleep. That said, the models are hinting at some sort of a storm positioned just south of New Zealand on Wed-Thurs (12/3) producing 38-40 ft seas aimed east at 57.5S 162.5E. Something to monitor.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Inactive MJO Driving Increased Trades - But Sea Surface Temps Stable

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool pushed east and by May subsurface cool waters erupted off Ecuador, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, holding into July 2020.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2020/2021 = 3.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020 only to return stronger in the Summer of 2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. But at this time that does not appear likely. Given all that, for the 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020/21, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the Spring of 2021.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/28) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and strong over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest from the east over the East equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and strong easterly over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, so they lag what is happening today by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (11/29) strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast calls for strong east anomalies holding rock solid filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 12/6. East anomalies are also over the East Pacific to a point south of California today and are forecast holding through the end of the model run.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (11/28) A weak MJO signal is present today over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Active Phase is to start building on day 5 then peaking over the KWGA on days 10-15 at modest strength. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase is to only build at best to weak status on days 10-15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (11/29) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the Maritime Continent today and is to track east to the West Pacific and remaining weak on day 15. The GEFS model suggests the Active Phase is to hold over the Maritime Continent weak status through day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (11/28) This model depicts a weak Active Phase (wet air) over the West Pacific/KWGA tracking east while fading pushing into Central America on 12/28. A modest Inactive Phase is to set up over the West Pacific on 12/18 pushing east and into the East PAcific and dissipating at the end of the model run on 1/7. At that time another weak Active Phase is to push over the West Pacific.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/28) This model depicts the Inactive Phase of the MJO was fading out over the KWGA today with strong east anomalies over the core of the KWGA and reaching east to a point south of California. The forecast indicates east anomalies are to hold in coverage and strength through 12/8 then fading some but still present at moderate status into 12/15, then rebuilding to strong status after that till the end of the model run over the KWGA into 12/26 and reaching east to a point south of California.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/29 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts the Inactive Phase of the MJO was just past it's peak over the KWGA today with east anomalies in control. The Inactive Phase is to push east and out of the KWGA by 12/14 producing east anomalies filling the KWGA and points east of there to California slowly decaying in coverage over that duration. A weak Active Phase is to follow on 12/17-2/17 producing weak west anomalies only in the far west KWGA 1with strong east anomalies forecast in the eastern KWGA (over the dateline). A weak Inactive MJO is to return 2/15 but with wind anomalies unchanged in the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is firmly in control over the dateline today with 2 contour lines reaching east to a point south of California and is to continue through the end of the model run with it's western periphery easing east to 150E at the end of the model run. A third contour line is to appear on 12/15 with a fourth contour line developing from 1/10 and a fifth on 1/28. A single contour low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean today and is to build in coverage holding through the end of the model run and its eastern periphery easing east to 140E at the end of the model run. Its core is to remain locked at 80E. A second contour is to develop on 12/28. East anomalies that have been previously solid in the Indian Ocean for over a year previous migrated east through the West Pacific to the East Pacific on 10/1 and are forecast stabilizing there for the foreseeable future. The trend is towards a building La Nina that is not likely to be dislodged anytime soon. This is turning into a 2 year event.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/29) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was gone. The 29 deg isotherm was retrograding to 158E today. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 178W today. The 24 deg isotherm was steady at 135W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were steady in the West Pacific pushing east to 160W at depth today but no warmth east of there and no sign of moving east anytime soon. The non-stop cold anomaly pocket at -3 degs was near 105W with cool anomalies filling the entire area east of the dateline and shallower west to 150E. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/24 indicates the same with a large cool water bubble at depth stronger and larger erupting to the surface from 160E eastward to Ecuador with a core to -5C at 130W. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/24) Negative anomalies were forming a wave pushing west from the Galapagos to 180W building to -15 cms at 120W and -10 cms solid from Ecuador to 140W. Negative anomalies were -5 to -10 cms along the coast of Peru up into Ecuador and then reaching north up to Baja and into South and North CA. Looking at the big picture, negative anomalies were forming a massive triangle from San Francisco south to Southern Chile and west out to the intersection of the dateline and the equator. No positive anomalies were over the equatorial Pacific, except from the dateline and points west of there.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (11/28) The latest images indicate cold anomalies were on the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and solid in density over that entire and large area. Colder anomalies were imbedded in that flow between 95W to 140W and steady in coverage today. Cool anomalies were also holding along the coasts of Chile and Peru with a previous small warm pocket along southern Peru now gone. This clearly indicates a well developed version of La Nina filling the entire equatorial Pacific and down into Chile. Warm water was all but gone off Central America north of the equator. Overall the cool pool on the equator was unmistakable and starting to show signs of rebuilding after previously being stalled.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/28): Temps were cooling in pockets on the equator between Ecuador to 135W and steady west of there.
Hi-res Overview: (11/28) A stream of consistent cool water is well entrenched from Chile up to Peru and Ecuador then tracking west on the equator out to the dateline and west to New Guinea with markedly cool anomalies between 110-150W. A clear La Nina signal is depicted.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/29) Today's temps were starting to rise to -1.241 after previously rising to a high of -0.650 on 11/15. This area has been on a seesaw rising trend since early October. Temps were previously down to -2.138 on 8/13. The longterm trend has been steady but quite cold since June.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(11/29) Temps were steady today to -1.249 today after bottoming out at -1.654 on 11/3, beating the previous low of -0.945 on 9/22. The previous low before that was -0.733 on 9/10. Temps have been on a steady decline since 7/25. Overall the trend appears to be in a steep decline.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (11/29) Today the model indicates temps at -1.25 degs. The forecast depicts a steady downward trend to continue reaching -1.50 degs in mid-Jan then beginning to rise, rebuilding up to -0.00 degs in early Aug and stabilizing there. This is becoming a 2 year event in that even after temps return to 0/normal it will take 3-5 months for the upper level circulation to respond in kind.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 21, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at -1.10 degs today, and are to hold into Dec, then moderating and starting to rise some to -0.89 by Jan 2021 and then neutral by June. Most models are suggesting a moderate to La Nina returning to Neutral in the late Spring. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (11/29): The daily index was rising to +19.40. The 30 day average was rising at +8.98. The 90 day average was falling some at 7.58. This index is a lagging indicator.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): June -0.67, May -0.46, April 2020 -0.69, March -0.09, Feb +0.65, Jan +0.42, This index was steady positive Aug 2018 through Feb 2020, and now is steady negative, but only weakly so.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (11/29):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ycTX8XhE1w&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

214

.
Contact | About | Disclaimer | Privacy
Advertise/Content | Links
Visit Mark Sponsler on Facebook Visit Stormsurf on Instagram Visit Stormsurf on YouTube
Copyright © 2020 STORMSURF - All Rights Reserved
This page cannot be duplicated, reused or framed in another window without express written permission.
But links are always welcome.
Buoys | Buoy Forecast | Models: Wave - Weather - Surf - Altimetry - Snow | Pacific Forecast | QuikCAST | El Nino | Tutorials | Great Circles | Calculator