Surf Forecasts and Marine Weather - No Hype - Just the Facts!
Winter To Return as MJO Pulses! - Video Forecast HERE (3/17/24)
Buoys | Buoy Forecast | Bulletins | Models: Wave - Weather - Surf - Altimetry - Snow | Pacific Forecast | QuikCAST | El Nino | Tutorials | Great Circles | Video

Google

Stormsurf Mobile App

Create Your Own Surf Forecast
Swell Calculator
Swell Decay Tables
Sea Height Tables
Swell Category Table
Convert from GMT:
 
 to timezone:

---

Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, March 14, 2024 1:29 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.3 - California & 3.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 3/11 thru Sun 3/17
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Storm Track Focuses On West Pacific
East Pacific Goes Quiet - What's to Blame?

BUOY ROUNDUP
Thursday, March 14, 2024 :

  • Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 13.2 secs from 272 degrees. Water temp 75.4 (Barbers Pt), 75.2 (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 5.0 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 3.3 ft @ 9.8 secs from 168 degrees. Water temp 75.7 degs
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 5.0 ft @ 20.0 secs with swell 2.8 ft @ 18.7 secs from 310 degrees. Water temp 75.0 degs
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.9 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 13.3 secs from 275 degrees. Wind northeast at 23-31 kts. Water temperature 58.3 degs, 56.3 (Harvest 071), 58.5 (Topanga 103), 59.0 (Long Beach 215), 60.6 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 60.8 (Del Mar 153), 61.0 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 7.7 ft @ 14.2 secs from 309 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 3.5 ft @ 13.3 secs from 260 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.4 ft @ 15.9 secs from 250 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.6 ft @ 9.3 secs from 273 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.1 ft @ 13.5 secs from 279 degrees. Water temperature was 60.1 degrees (Imperial Beach).
  • Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 12.9 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 8.5 ft @ 11.8 secs from 307 degrees. Wind northwest at 10-13 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and north at 21-25 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801589) and NNW at 18 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 53.8 degs (Pt Reyes 029), NA (San Francisco 46026), 55.6 (SF Bar 142), 55.9 (1801589) and 55.8 (Monterey Bay 46092).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (3/14) in North and Central CA waves were 1 ft overhead and mushed and warbled from north wind but with fairly clean surface conditions. Protected breaks were 1 ft overhead and lined up if not closed out and warbled. At Santa Cruz surf was chest to head high and lined up and real clean with decent form but soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were up to head high and lined up with decent form and clean but with pretty hard offshore winds. Central Orange County had waves at chest high and lined up with modest form and suffering from too much offshore winds blowing hard. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at thigh high and super clean with light offshore wind and lined up but weak. North San Diego had waves at waist to maybe chest high on the sets and lined up and real clean with decent form but soft. Oahu's North Shore had waves at chest high on the sets and lined up and clean with good form. The South Shore was thigh to waist high on the sets and soft but clean with some easterly texture. The East Shore was getting minimal east windswell at thigh to waist high and getting chopped from developing moderate north winds.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (3/14) Hawaii and California were getting fading swell from a gale that developed west of the dateline Sat (3/9) while lifting northeast with 35 ft seas aimed east then tracking through the Gulf into Mon (3/11) with seas fading from 25 ft. And swell is poised for Hawaii from another system that developed over the dateline on Mon (3/11) with up to 38 ft seas aimed east and is forecast to fall southeast into Wed (3/13) with 30-32 ft seas targeting Hawaii well. And yet another storm was developing off the Kuril Islands Wed-Thurs (3/14) with up to 38 ft seas aimed east but never even reaching the dateline. A bit of an uptick in swell production is occurring for the North Pacific. And yet another gale is forecast west of the dateline Sat-Mon (3/18) with 38 ft sea aimed east and making it to the dateline before fading. And another is forecast behind that on the same track Mon-Tues (3/19) but with only 31 ft seas aimed east. And another is forecast behind that. Down south a gale developed in the Southeast Pacific on Wed (3/6) with 39 ft seas aimed east. Small swell is possible for Southern CA starting later today. And a gale developed under New Zealand Sun-Mon (3/11) with 35 ft seas aimed mostly east. Summer is trying to get an early start.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (3/14) the jet was consolidated from Japan to the dateline with winds up to 170 kts feeding a trough off the Kuril Islands supportive of gale development with a secondary pinched trough fading north of the Hawaiian Islands offering nothing. East of there the jet was split with the northern branch tracking north and then northeast up into North Canada offering nothing. Over the next 72 hours the consolidated jet is to push east to the Western Gulf (155W) and running flat east on the 35N latitude line with winds slowly weakening on Sun (3/17) to 150 kts. A new trough is to be be off the Kuril Islands on Sat (3/16) embedded in that flow offering support for gale development pushing east to the dateline early Mon (3/18). Beyond 72 hours starting Tues (3/19) winds are to start building strong off Japan on reaching east almost to the dateline at 180-190 kts with a trough building off the Kuril ISlands offering much support for gale development. By Thurs (3/21) with to build to 210 kts almost reaching to the dateline and forming yet another trough supportive of gale development. A fairly active pattern is setting up focused mainly west of the dateline and likely fueled by the MJO.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (3/14) swell from a gale previously swell was fading in Hawaii and the US West Coast from a gale previously over the Dateline (see Dateline Gale below). Small swell was hitting California from a gale previously over the North Dateline region (see North Dateline Gale below) but lost in other swell.

Over the next 72 hours another swell was pushing towards Hawaii and the US West Coast from a gale that developed over the dateline while falling southeast (see Another Dateline Gale below).

 

North Dateline Gale
On Thurs AM (3/7) a gale started building off the Kuril Islands lifting northeast with 40 kt northwest winds and seas building from 25 ft at 40N 165E aimed east. In the evening the gale was just south of the Western Aleutians with 45 kt northwest winds and seas building to 25 ft at 47N 168E aimed east. On Fri AM (3/8) west winds were 50-55 kts just south of the Aleutians with seas 41 ft at 50.75N 172.5E aimed east. Fetch was fading in the evening from 30 kts just south of the Central Aleutians with seas fading from 34 ft at 50N 177E aimed east and unshadowed by the southern most Aleutian Islands. Maybe small longer period swell to result for Hawaii and the US West Coast.

North CA: Swell peaking on Thurs (3/14) at 3.0 ft @ 17 secs earl (5.0 ft) and holding. Swell fading and lost beyond. Swell Direction: 308 degrees

 

Dateline Gale
On Sat AM (3/9) yet another gale developed while tracking east off North Japan with west winds 46 kts and seas building from 34 ft at 39.5N 162.5E aimed east. In the evening the gale was tracking east positioned just west of the dateline with 45 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 42.75N 171.5E aimed east. On Sun AM (3/10) the gale was weakening while moving over the dateline with 40 kt west winds and seas 32 ft at 45.5N 180W aimed east. In the evening the gale was fading in the Northwestern Gulf with 30-35 kt west winds over a decent sized area and seas 25 ft at 46.75N 169.5W aimed east. Winds were holding Mon AM (3/11) in the Central Gulf at 35 kts with seas fading from 25 ft at 45N 148W aimed east. Northwesterly fetch was northeast in the evening at 30-35 kts targeting only the Pacific Northwest with seas 26 ft at 48.5N 138.5W aimed east. Swell possibly targeting the US West Coast.

Oahu: Swell dissipating Thurs AM (3/14) from 2.3 ft @ 12-13 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 320 degrees

North CA: Swell fading on Thurs (3/14) from 7.0 ft @ 13 secs (9.0 ft). Swell Direction: 303 degrees

 

Another Dateline Gale
A small gale started developing while moving east over the North Dateline region Mon AM (3/11) with 45-50 kt northwest winds and seas building from 29 ft at 44N 171E. In the evening fetch pushed east at 45 kts from the west with seas 38 ft at 45N 177.5E aimed east. On Tues AM (3/12) the gale was over the dateline producing 45 kt west winds with seas 33 ft at 44.5N 179.25W aimed east. In the evening the gale was reorganizing while falling southeast with 40 kt northwest winds over a solid area and seas 31 ft at 41.5N 177.5W aimed southeast. Fetch was fading Wed AM (3/13) in the Northwestern Gulf with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas 29 ft at 40N 173W aimed southeast at Hawaii. In the evening fetch was fading from 30 kts aimed southeast with seas 25 ft over a solid area at 38N 167W aimed east and southeast. The gale faded out from there. Swell expected for Hawaii and the US West Coast. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (3/14) building to 8.4 ft @ 15-16 secs at sunset (13 ft). Swell fading Fri AM (3/15) from 9.2 ft @ 15 secs early (14 ft). Swell fading in Sat (3/16) from 6.3 ft @ 13 secs (8.0 ft). Residuals on Sun (3/17) fading from 4.0 ft @ 11 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 325-330 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (3/16) building to 3.4 ft @ 15-16 secs later (5.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (3/17) from 3.8 ft @ 14-15 secs early (5.5 ft). Residuals on Mon (3/18) fading from 3.4 ft @ 12-13 secs early (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 290-295 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

  • Fri AM (3/15) a light northwest winds is forecast at 5-10 kts for North CA and 5-10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon a calm wind pattern is forecast all locations.
  • Sat AM (3/16) a weak pressure pattern and light winds continue for all of California. No change in the afternoon.
  • Sun AM (3/17) weak high pressure is to set up over North CA with northwest winds 1-5 kts early for North Ca and north 1-5 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds build to 5-10 kt for North and Central CA.
  • Mon AM (3/18) high pressure builds off the Pacific Northwest with northwest winds 10 kts early for all of North and Central CA. No change in the afternoon.
  • Tues AM (3/19) Weak low pressure builds well off North CA with northwest winds locally for North and Central CA at 5 kts early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North Ca and 5-10 kts for Central CA.
  • Wed AM (3/20) the low holds while drifting north with west winds 5 kts for North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for both North and Central CA.
  • Thurs AM (3/21) low pressure tries to build just west of the OR-CA border with south winds 5 kts for North CA and up to 15 kts near Cape Mendocino and northwest winds 5-10 kts for Central CA. Rain possible for Cape Mendocino mid-day.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches with a hint possible on day 10.

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Levels 6,500 ft on 3/14 building to 10.000 ft 3/17 and holding into 3/19. Temps slowly falling thereafter with freeze level down to 8,200 ft on 3/21 and then leveling off at 7,000 ft 3/22 and beyond. A Springtime pattern looks to be coming.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
A small gale developed in the Southeast Pacific on Wed AM (3/6) (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a gale that developed under New Zealand is to be radiating northeast weakly (see New Zealand Gale below).

A storm developed Wed AM (3/13) just off the Southern Kuril Islands lifting northeast fast with 50-55 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 41.75N 156.5E aimed east. In the evening the storm tracked northeast with 50 kt west winds and seas peaking at 38 ft at 45.75N 161.75E aimed east off the Central Kuril Islands. On Thurs AM (3/14) fetch was fading from 40+ kts pushing off the north Kuril Islands with seas fading from 35 ft at 47.25N 165E aimed east, In the evening the gale is to be dissipating with 35 kts west winds and seas 29 ft over a broad area at 47.25N 165.75E aimed east. Something to monitor for Hawaii and the US West Coast.

 

Southeast Pacific Gale
On Wed AM (3/6) a storm developed in the Central South Pacific producing 5055 kt southwest winds and seas building from 33 ft at 66.75S 145.5W aimed east-northeast. There was no Antarctic Ice of interest given we're still in summer in the Southern Hemi. In the evening winds were fading from 40 kts over a broad area with seas 38 ft at 66.25S 128.75W aimed east-northeast. On Thurs AM (3/7) fetch was fading from 35 kts from the southwest over the east edge of the Southern CA swell window with seas fading from 29-30 ft at 67S 120W aimed east-northeast. Swell mainly for Chile and Peru.

Southern CA: Maybe some background energy arriving late on Thurs (3/14) building to 1.1 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (3/15) from 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction 175-180 degrees

 

New Zealand Gale
A gale developed under New Zealand on Sun AM (3/10) producing southwest winds at 45 kts over a solid area aimed northeast with seas building from 35 ft at 55.25S 167.25E aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were fading in coverage from 40-45 kts from the southwest and falling south with seas 35 ft at 61.25S 169.75E aimed northeast. Fetch was fading in coverage Mon AM (3/11) from 40 kts with seas fading from 35 ft at 60.75S 179E aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sun (3/17) building to 1.1 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5 ft) early. Swell fading on Mon (3/18) from 1.0 ft @ 13 secs (1.0-1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (3/20) building to 1.1 ft @ 18 secs midday (2.0 ft). Swell building Thurs (3/21) to 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Fri (3/22) at 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (3/23) from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell fading out on Sun (3/24) from 1.1 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 213 moving to 207 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours another gale is forecast off North Japan on Sat PM (3/16) producing west winds at 45-50 kts and seas 36 ft at 41N 165.75E aimed east. On Sun AM (3/17) the gale is to track east with 45 kt west winds and seas 37 ft at 40.5N 169.75E aimed east. The gale is to be fading in the evening while approaching the dateline with 40 kts west winds over a solid area and seas 32 ft at 39.75N 176.5E aimed east. Fetch dissipating Mon AM (3/18) from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 29 ft on the dateline at 40,5N 177.75W aimed east. Something to monitor.

And yet another gale is to start building west of the dateline Mon PM (3/18) with 40 kt west winds and seas building from 30 ft at 37.5N 154E aimed east. On Tues AM (3/19) west winds to be fading from 35-40 kts with seas 31 ft over a modest sized area at 37.5N 160.75E aimed east. Fetch fading in the evening from 30 kts with seas fading from 28 ft at 37.25N 167E aimed east. Something to monitor.

And yet another gale is forecast developing off Japan on Thurs AM (3/21) with 45-50 kts west winds and seas 40 ft over a small area at 36.25N 156.5E aimed east. The gale is to track east from there. Something to monitor.

A progressive storm pattern looks to be forecast but isolated to the far West Pacific. But much swell decay will result for any swell produced as it radiates east to Hawaii and California. This looks to all be driven by the Active Phase of the MJO developing over the far West Pacific. The hope is that as the Active MJO pushes east over the next 3-4 weeks, the center of storm production will move east with it. At least that's the hope.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no meaningful swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina Arrives -
Active MJO Builds Too
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Starting to Fade
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But now cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Winter 2023 = 7.7 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (3/13) 5 day average winds were strong east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and yet stronger east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak east over East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (3/14) East anomalies are strong over the KWGA today but west anomalies were starting to develop in the far West KWGA. The forecast indicates strong east anomalies holding filling the KWGA into 3/17 then fading and gone by 3/21. And west anomalies are forecast building strong in the far West KWGA starting 3/16 and building east filling the KWGA at moderate to strong status starting 3/21 and then filling the entire equatorial Pacific beyond at least through the end of the model run on 3/30.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (3/13) A moderate Active MJO (cloudy sky's) were moving east and almost filling the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates a moderate Active MJO is to build over and filling the KWGA on day 5 of the model run and slowly easing east through day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts the same thing.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (3/14) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was moderate over the East Maritime Continent today. The forecast indicates it is to move to the East Pacific varying between weak to moderate status over the next 15 days. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase tracking east to the West Pacific building to strong status on days 4-6 of the model run then slowly weakening to modest strength on day 15 of the model run over the Atlantic.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (3/14) A strong Active MJO pattern (wet air) was building over the KWGA today. The Active MJO is to slowly ease east through the KWGA at strong strength through 3/24. A strong Inactive MJO (dry air) is to follow moving over the KWGA on 4/3 tracking east through the end of the model run on 4/23 and mostly east of the KWGA then as a new weak Active Phase starting building into the KWGA.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/13)
Today a moderate Inactive MJO signal was filling the KWGA with east anomalies in control and forecast holding through 3/17. A solid Active Phase and west anomalies are to take over 3/14 through 4/1. Another solid Inactive Phase and east anomalies are to develop 3/24 building through the end of the model run on 4/10..
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/14) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO and east anomalies were over the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is forecast to control the KWGA through 3/27 with east anomalies blowing. The Active Phase is to follow moving in from the west 3/24 tracking east through 5/19 with modest west anomalies in control. The Inactive Phase to follow 5/9 through the end of the model run on 6/11 but with weak west anomalies in control. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 165W with a third contour line fading on 3/17 and a second contour line fading on 4/25. The final contour is to hold through the end of the model run. It appears a strong El Nino is to slowly fade over the next 3 months while dissipating.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (3/14) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm had crashed back to the west to 164E from 170E. The 29 degree isotherm was easing west at 176W. The 28 deg isotherm line was expanding east to 110W from 160W and only 3 meters deep in the east and mostly just warm anomalies from off Ecuador being pushed west by trade winds. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was getting steadily shallower in the east at 20m deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were losing coverage at +2 deg C while getting compressed to the surface fast under the East Pacific between 107W to 125W. Cold water at -2 degs was filling the entire Equatorial Pacific below 150m in the west rising to 20m in the east. The warm pool in the east is discharging fast to the surface with no backfilling occurring and then getting pushed west by trade wind. There's maybe 2 weeks of warm water left. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/9 indicates cold water in control from Ecuador west to 120W. The remnant warm surface water from El Nino getting pushed west by trades starting at 120W and points west of there. Cold water was filling the entire equatorial Pacific thermocline below it. La Nina is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/9) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at 0 to -5 cms over the entire area and -5 to -10 cms from Ecuador west to 145W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (3/9) cold water was filling the Equatorial Pacific other than warm water at 0 to +0.5 degs limited to just a few miles off the coast of Ecuador. Cold water was taking control of the equatorial Pacific. El Nino is gone from the subsurface perspective as the ocean turns to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (3/13) The latest images depict a moderate warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to 160W but steadily losing density with many less warm pockets interspersed. And cold water was developing between 100W-130W. There is still an El Nino signal present but now the beginnings of a cold La Nina signal are starting to emerge to the oceans surface west of the Galapagos.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (3/13): A solid cooling pocket was holding from 110W to 140W and along the coast of Ecuador. New pockets of warming were over the Galapagos to 105W but likely just the last of warm subsurface water being pushed upward by colder water underneath. A warming trend that has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 is collapsing.
Hi-res Overview: (3/13) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline but neutral water was starting to emerge west of the Galapagos. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but slowly losing it's density on the equator west to the dateline. Everything still looks like El Nino but the beginnings of La Nina are developing at the surface.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/14) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling at +0.767 from +1.024 degs and that was fading from +1.161 after peaking at +1.197 on 2/13 as the last of warm subsurface water gets squeezed upwards. Temps were up from +0.502 on 2/4 and had been toggling in the +0.6 degs range since 12/30, previously up into the +2.0 range in early Nov. .
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(3/14) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling at +0.915 but had been at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12. Weekly OISST are +1.4 (week of 3/6) and were +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 degs (2/7), +1.8 degs (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 degs (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 degs (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1). Monthly Data is +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.56 Feb. The 3 month ONI is +1.8 for the 3 month period DJF and +2.0 ft for NDJ (bare minimal Super El Nino status). All others were less than that.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps started slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Au, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan and +1.65 in Feb.
Forecast (3/14) - Temps to fall to +0.5 degs mid-April and -2.25 degs in Nov/Dec 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to only -1.75 degs in Oct and leveling off there. According to this version of the model we are past the peak of a strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The February 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.154 degs today and its the 10th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to +0.749 in March (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there down to -0.990 in Oct. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.988 in Oct and the Statistic down to -0.992.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (3/14) the Daily Index was positive at 18.43 today. It turned mostly positive after a 28 day negative run on 2/20 peaking down at -46.54 on 2/9. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was rising at +0.21, Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was rising some at -4.46. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/19 and hard negative in 10/21-10/23 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/23-2/24 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

419763

.
Contact | About | Disclaimer | Privacy
Advertise/Content | Links
Visit Mark Sponsler on Facebook Visit Stormsurf on Instagram Visit Stormsurf on YouTube
Copyright © 2023 STORMSURF - All Rights Reserved
This page cannot be duplicated, reused or framed in another window without express written permission.
But links are always welcome.
Buoys | Buoy Forecast | Bulletins | Models: Wave - Weather - Surf - Altimetry - Snow | Pacific Forecast | QuikCAST | El Nino | Tutorials | Great Circles | Calculator