BUOY ROUNDUP
Sunday, December 8, 2024 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (12/8) in North and Central CA waves were 1-2 ft overhead and lined up and clean with calm wind but fairly soft. Protected breaks were chest to shoulder high and lined up and clean but a bit closed out with some warble underneath. At Santa Cruz surf was chest high on the sets and lined up and real clean with decent form. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to chest high on the sets and well lined up with good form and super clean but a little soft. Central Orange County had sets at waist to chest high and lined up with good form and real clean but soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had surf at waist high on the rare sets and clean but pretty warbled and soft and irregular. North San Diego had sets at waist high pushing chest high on the peaks of the sets and lined up and clean but pretty soft. Oahu's North Shore had sets at head high and lined up and clean with good form and fun looking. The South Shore was chest to shoulder high and line dup and clean with good form. Amazing given the time of year. The East Shore was getting thigh high wrap around northwest swell and warbled from modest northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (12/8) swell was fading in California from the second in a series of gales that developed Mon-Tues (12/3) with 21-24 ft seas. And a third developed Thurs-Sat (12/7) in the Western and Northeastern Gulf with 26-28 ft seas aimed east. A stronger system developed in the Northwestern Gulf Fri-Sun (12/8) with up to 40 ft seas aimed east over a small area. And secondary energy to result from it in the Western Gulf Sun-Mon (12/9) with up to 41 ft seas aimed east over a small area. A tiny system is forecast for the Northwestern Gulf Sun (12/8) with 31 ft seas aimed southeast over tiny area followed by a slightly broader one Mon-Tues (12/10) with 35-37 ft seas in the Northwestern Gulf. A bit of a break is suggested on the dateline with a local gale off North CA Fri (12/13) with 35 ft seas over a tiny area aimed east. Then things are to get interesting with maybe a stronger system developing in the Western Gulf Sat-Sun (12/15) with 49 ft seas aimed east and southeast. and yet another behind that on the dateline on Sun (12/15) with 46 ft seas aimed east. Something well worth keeping an eye on. A pretty active pattern remains suggested regardless of the MJO being quite Inactive. It might have something to do with a strong Active Phase over the Maritime Continent feeding the jet allowing it to push strongly downstream over the Central North Pacific.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (12/8) the jetstream was consolidated pushing hard east off Japan on the 35N latitude line reaching east to a point 700 nmiles north of Hawaii with winds to 210 kts on dateline starting to dig out a new trough in the Northwestern Gulf offering support for gale formation. The jet was split over the Eastern Gulf with the northern branch pushing hard north up into Alaska and then down the Canadian coast moving inland over Washington setting up a backdoor trough and some weather there. Over the next 72 hours the Hawaiian trough is to dig out deep and steep Mon (12/9) north of Hawaii and too pinched off the produce anything meaningful. But the jet is to continue running hard east on the 35N latitude line with winds to 170 kts in two pockets one just off Japan and the second north of Hawaii and pushing further east and poised to impact the North CA coast by Wed (12/11). Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs (12/12) the jet is to continue pushing east and impacting North CA Thurs AM (12/12) with 140 kts winds producing weather theoretically. But directly west of there the jet is to be weak, but still consolidated running east on the 35-40 N latitude line. Winds off Japan are to be 160-170 kts reaching east to a little east of the dateline. By Sat (12/14) winds to build off Japan to 190 kts with a trough developing in the Northwestern Gulf being fed by 140 kts winds offering good support for gale formation then getting a bit pinched in the Gulf on Sun (12/15). And another trough is forecast Sun (12/15) over the North Dateline region being fed by a solid flow of 190 kts winds offering good support for gale formation. It certainly appears an Active MJO over the Maritime Continent is feeding the jet pushing it firmly downstream reaching a good way across the Pacific before its momentum fades.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (12/8) swell from the 2nd in a series of gales was fading in California (see 2nd Dateline Gales below). Swell from the 3rd in the series was fading in Hawaii and poised for arrival in CA (see 3rd Dateline/Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours another stronger gale developed in the Western Gulf with energy from it poised for Hawaii and pushing towards CA (see Gulf Gale below). And a small gale was developing in the Western Gulf with potential for HI and CA (see Small West Gulf Gale below).

And yet another gale is forecast developing on the Dateline Mon AM (12/9) with 45 kt west winds and seas building while tracking east. In the evening the gale is to consolidate more in the far Western Gulf reaching storm status with 50 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 44N 174W aimed east. On Tues AM (12/10) the storm is to lift northeast over the Northwestern Gulf with 50 kt west winds with seas 33 ft at 48.5N 164W aimed east. In the evening the gale lifts to the North Gulf with 45 kt west winds and seas 34 ft at 50.5N 158.5W aimed east. The gale is to move northeast and inland over Alaska Wed AM (12/11) with seas fading from 29 ft up at 53.75N 153W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Gulf Gale
On Fri PM (12/6) a storm started developing just west of the dateline with 45-50 kts northwest and west winds and seas building from 24 ft at 38N 176W aimed southeast. Sat AM (12/7) fetch expanded while tracking east-northeast with 50-55 kt west and northwest winds and seas 37 ft at 41.5N 168.75W aimed east and southeast. The storm faded to gale status in the evening with 45 kt west winds in the Western Gulf with seas briefly to 40 ft then down to 37 ft at 45.25N 163W aimed east. Sun AM (12/8) the gale was lifting north up in the Northwest Gulf while fading producing west winds 35-40 kts with seas fading from 31 ft at 45.5N 164W aimed east. Fetch and seas to be gone in the evening.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Mon (12/9) building to 4.1 ft @ 13 secs later in the day (5.0 ft). Swell fading from there. Swell Direction: 320 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (12/10) at sunset reaching 3.5 ft @ 15-16 secs (5.5 ft). Swell peaking Wed AM (12/11) at 4.5 ft @ 15 secs early (6.5-7.0 ft). Swell Direction: 297 degrees

Small West Gulf Gale
A small gale was developing on the Dateline Sun AM (12/8) with 45 kt northwest winds and seas building. In the evening it is to be falling southeast in the Western Gulf with 50-55 kts west winds and seas 31 ft at 41.25N 166.75W aimed east and southeast. On Mon AM (12/9) west winds to be fading fast from 30 kts in the Central Gulf with seas fading from 25 ft at 38N 156W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Rough data suggest swell arrival Tues afternoon (12/10) building to 5.5 ft @ 15 secs at sunset (8.0 ft). Swell fading Wed AM (12/11) from 4.3 ft @ 13 secs (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 335 degrees

North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Thurs AM (12/12) building to 5.0 ft @ 13-14 secs at sunset (6.5 ft) fading slowly through the day. Swell Direction: 290 degrees

2nd Dateline Gale
A second gale formed Sun PM (12/1) just west of the dateline falling more southeast with 30+ kt northwest winds and seas building. On Mon AM (12/2) northwest winds built in coverage at 35 kts targeting Hawaii directly with seas building from 19-20 ft at 37.5N 178.5E aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds were 30-35 kts some 1,200 nmiles northwest of the Islands with seas 21 ft at 37N 175.25W aimed well at the Islands. On Tues AM (12/3) fetch pulsed some at 35 kts aimed mostly east now with seas building to 24 ft at 39.5N 171.5W. In the evening fetch is to be fading fast from 30 kts in the Western Gulf with seas fading from 23 ft at 41N 164.75W aimed east. This system is to be gone after that. More swell is to be targeting Hawaii and then the US West Coast.

North CA: Swell fading Sun AM (12/8) from 3.9 ft @ 13 secs (5.0 ft) and getting buried in local windswell Swell Direction: 288 degrees

3rd Dateline/Gulf Gale
Yet a third modest gale developed on the North Dateline Wed PM (12/4) falling hard southeast with 30-35 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas building. On Thurs AM (12/5) northwest winds were 30-35 kts just west of the dateline 1,200 nmiles northwest of Hawaii with seas 23 ft at 43N 171.75W aimed southeast at the Islands. In the evening the gale turned east over the Northwestern Gulf with west winds 35-40 kts and seas 25 ft at 40.5 163.5W aimed east and southeast mainly targeting the mainland. Fri AM (12/6) west winds were 35 kts in the Gulf with seas 24 ft at 41N 155W aimed east targeting Oregon and California. Fetch was lifting northeast in the evening with west winds 35 kts and seas 25 ft at 48.25N 147.25W aimed east. On Sat AM (12/7) fetch was tracking east at 35-40 kts now off Washington with seas 28 ft at 47.5N 141.5W aimed east. The gale was fading off Vancouver Island in the evening with seas fading from 25 ft at 48N 134W aimed east then impacting Vancouver Island.

Oahu: Swell fading Sun (12/8) from 4.1 ft @ 11-12 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 330 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (12/9) before sunrise fading from 6.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (8.5 ft) early. Swell fading on Tues (12/10) from 3.4 ft @ 11-12 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 300 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 10-11k feet through 12/11 then falling steadily to below 6,000 ft on the morning of Dec 13 dropping to 3,500 ft 12/14 then rising fast on 12/15 to 10,500 ft and holding beyond.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
A gale developed just south of New Zealand late Sat (11/30) producing 26 ft seas at 54.25S 175E aimed northeast into Sun AM (12/1) at 25 ft at 51.5S 174.5W aimed northeast. Background swell is starting to hit Hawaii. See QuiCASTs for details.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a small gale is projected developing just off North CA on Thurs PM (12/12) with 45 kts northwest winds and seas building. On Fri AM (12/13) northwest winds to be 40+ kts with seas 20 ft at 37N 135W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to bloom 200 nmiles west of Cape Mendocino CA with northwest winds 45 kts and seas 35 ft at 41.25N 129W aimed southeast. The gale is to move inland after that.

Another storm is forecast developing on Sat AM (12/14) with 55-60 kt northwest winds 1200 nmiles northwest of Hawaii in the Western Gulf with seas building from 31 ft at 43.25N 165.25W aimed southeast. In the evening the storm is to fall southeast with 55 kt northwest winds and seas 45 ft at 41.75N 158.75W aimed southeast mainly targeting the mainland and up to 49 ft in the late evening at 41.25N 155.5W. On Sun AM (12/15) a solid fetch of 45 kts northwest winds is forecast in the Central Gulf with seas 47 ft at 40N 152W and east of the Hawaii swell window targeting CA well. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts over a broad area with seas fading from 35 ft at 38.5N 147W aimed east. Something to monitor.

And maybe another storm is to be developing approaching the dateline Sat PM (12/14) with 50 kts west winds and seas building from 28 ft at 36N 160E aimed east. On Sun AM (12/15) west winds to be 55-60 kts with seas 39 ft at 42N 174.5E aimed east. In the evening another solid storm is to be in play with 55 kt west winds over the dateline and seas 46 ft at 44.25N 175.25W aimed east.

Quite a pattern projected.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

MJO Pattern Strengthens
Models Suggest a Weak La Nina Event
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 5 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is moving to weakly La Nina mode and that will continue to build, but not expected to move beyond weak status.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (12/7) water sensors are all up in the east but wind sensors are partially down in the far east. 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the far East equatorial Pacific and moderate to strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (12/8) Today strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA with the Inactive Phase of the MJO in control. The forecast suggests east anomalies holding at strong status while filling the KWGA and the whole of the equatorial Pacific through then end of the model run on 12/24. West anomalies are at equally strong status but locked west of the West Pacific over the Maritime Continent (since 11/20) and are not forecast reaching into even the far West Pacific for any meaningful duration. The Inactive Phase of the MJO is here.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (12/8) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 162E. The 29 degree isotherm was backtracking west to 170E. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking at 179W from 170W. The 24 degree isotherm was no longer reaching east the whole way across the Equatorial Pacific, making it east to only 125W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific. A pool of generally cool anomalies at up to -1.0 degs were in the East Pacific thermocline from 150W into Ecuador. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 12/4 clarifies the situation indicating cold anomalies were filling the the thermocline from the dateline east at -0.5 to -1.0 deg and 0.5 degs colder in the far east. The density and volume of that cold water at depth was not impressive (a good thing). The cool pool appears isolated and has no path to replenish it. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building. La Nina is here but there is no pathway for more cold water to move from the West Pacific eastward. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (12/4) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from Ecuador to 165W with no -10 cms indicated. It appears the cool pool is fading for the moment. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (12/4) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific early March then retracted in June, rebuilt in coverage mid-July, then retracted in Aug, rebuilt in early Sept then quickly faded early Oct. Today the cool pool is fading fast while retracting east extending west to only 130W at 0 to -0.5 degs (previously 148W last week of Oct and 152W 3rd week of Oct) with no cold center. A La Nina pattern is in play with 5 pulses so far but not strongly so. Warm water is limited in coverage west of the dateline and getting steadily warmer in the far West Pacific. The subsurface temperature forecast suggests that this is the last pulse of cold water forecast with warm water in the west blocking the development of any more cold water Kelvin Waves. Interesting. Is the subsurface cool pool dissolving?

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (12/7) The latest images depict a La Nina cool stream was filling the equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to a bit west of the dateline (165E) and getting stronger from 150W to the dateline but otherwise weak in the far East Pacific. We are in La Nina, but not strongly.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (12/7): A warming pattern was in control of the East Equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos to 120W indicating no trend towards warming or cooling.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/8) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data os less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were rising some at -0.343. They peaked at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/8) Today's temps were steady at -0.922 and have were falling after rising to -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.3 week of 11/27. Previously temps were -0.1 (11/20), 0.0 (11/13), -0.3 (11/6), -0.2 (10/30), -0.5 (10/23), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is -0.19 Nov, -0.26 Oct., -0.25 Sept, -0.11 August, +0.05 July, +0.18 June, +0.24 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.80 (SON), -0.75 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.51 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.26 (AMJ), +0.06 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2.0 in Nov. Temps did not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as forecast.
Forecast (12/8) - Temps to fall hard to -1.0 in Dec and -1.25 in Jan before rebounding to -0.30 in April 2025 and holding there into June building to -0.5 in July. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same steep drop with temps to -1.0 degs in Dec and -1.1 degs in Jan then rebounding as described above. None of this is believable since the CFS model has been showing steep drops in temps since July 2024 and those drops never materialize. We are only moving to a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The November 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.475 degs today (unchanged from last month) and is the 6th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall a little more down to -0.496 in Dec (3 month running mean) then then rising from there to +0.173 JJA (June July Aug). This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.565 in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.367 in Nov. Both these projections are about like before but only suggest a bare minimal week La Nina.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (12/8) the Daily Index was positive at 17.07 today, and positive the last 29 days, negative 12 days before, positive the previous 10 days, negative the previous 4 days, positive 18 days previous, negative the previous 5 days, positive 4 days previous, negative the 11 days before that, positive 22 days previous. Over the past month it was a mix of positive and negative.
The 30 day average was rising at +12.91 and has been weakly positive the last month. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was rising some at +4.94 and still effectively neutral as it has been the last month. The first positive value was on 9/5 since the demise of El Nino. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
We are in ENSO neutral status.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July, -2.91 Aug and -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. In Nov the index final rose some to -3.24. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table