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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Monday, August 2, 2021 3:32 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.9 - California & 1.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 8/2 thru Sun 8/8

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

One Last Swell Arriving In CA
Weak New Zealand Gale Possible

Next Forecast Update - Tues (8/10)

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Monday, August 2, 2021 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 1.1 ft @ 14.8 secs from 153 degrees. Water temp 79.9 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 5.1 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 4.1 ft @ 6.5 secs from 45 degrees. Water temp 79.5 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 1.1 ft @ 15.9 secs from 183 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 8-10 kts. Water temperature 67.5 degs, 66.0 (Topanga 103), 59.4 degs (Long Beach 215), 61.9 (Del Mar 153), 67.3 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 1.6 ft @ 16.6 secs from 186 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.4 ft @ 16.9 secs from 200 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.0 ft @ 18.0 secs from 170 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 2.1 ft @ 16.2 secs from 178 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 17.4 secs from 195 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was south at 2-6 kts. Water temp 60.6 (Pt Reyes 029), 59.7 (46026), 60.8 degs (SF Bar 142), and 62.1 (Santa Cruz 254).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Monday (8/2) North and Central CA had waves at thigh to maybe waist high and weak and modestly textured from a south flow. Protected breaks were flat to knee high and textured from south wind. At Santa Cruz surf was flat and clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high or so on the sets and lined up on the sets but a little warbled though local wind was calm. Central Orange County had set waves at waist to near chest high on the sets and slightly warbled from light northwest wind and mushed. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets up to head high on the peak of the bigger but rare sets and peeling reasonably well and fairly clean. North San Diego had sets waves at waist high or so and clean and lined up with some form. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had some rare waist high sets and clean and soft. The East Shore was getting short period windswell with waves waist to chest high and chopped from solid east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Monday (8/2) California was starting to see some small swell on the buoys from a gale that formed in the Southeast Pacific on Sun-Mon (7/27) producing a small area of up to 33 ft sea aimed northeast towards CA. Swell is building some. After that a weak gael is forecast developing east of New Zealand on Wed (8/4) with up to 25 ft seas aimed northeast targeting mainly Tahiti and Hawaii. After that nothing is forecast. The doldrums of summer continue.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Monday (8/2) no swell from previous fetch was in the water and no swell producing fetch was occurring.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
Hurricane Hilda was 1,100 nmiles south of Pt Conception CA on Mon AM (8/2) with winds 70 kts tracking west-northwest at 7 kts. Hilda is forecast to make a turn to the northwest for 18 hours while starting to fade slightly, but is positioned well west of the California swell window and almost 2,000 nmiles east of the Hawaii swell window likely offering no swell potential for either. On Tues (8/3) Hilda is to be rapidly fading with winds down to 50 kts later offering even less potential and fading from there while turning back on a westerly track. In all, no swell production potential is forecast. Will monitor.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Tues (8/3) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts over North CA early and 15 kts mainly offshore south of there down into Central CA early (10 kts nearshore) pretty much holding all day. Maybe some weak to modest raw windswell developing.
  • Wed (8/4) northwest winds to be 20+ kts over Cape Mendocino early and 15 kts for Central CA early fading up north to 15+ kts later and 15+ kts for Central CA. Very limited raw windswell expected.
  • Thurs (8/5) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts in North CA building in coverage focused over the Pt Conception area early then building everywhere at 20-25 kts later. Modest raw windswell building.
  • Fri (8/6) northwest winds to be 20 kts from Pt Arena southward early building to 25 kts over Pt Conception holding all day. More raw windswell continuing.
  • Sat (8/7) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for all of North CA and 20 kts down into Central CA early holding all day. Windswell building some.
  • Sun (8/8) northwest winds to be fading in coverage at 20 kts in North Ca early and 10 kts for Central CA fading to mostly 15 kts over North CA later and 10-15 kts for Central CA. Windswell fading.
  • Mon (8/9) northwest winds to be 20 kts for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA holding all day. Very limited short period windswell expected.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches respectively.

Freezing level 14,000+ ft with no change forecast.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Monday (8/2) the influential southern branch of the jet was ridging hard south over the Southwest Pacific into Antarctica then starting to lift north over the far Southeast Pacific but still south of the ice line not reaching open ocean. Over the next 72 hours that ridge is to hold locking down the Southwest Pacific through slowly moderating through the next 3 days while a trough is to be developing in the extreme Southeast Pacific but east of the Southern CA swell window and of no interest. Beyond 72 hours a new ridge is to start building in the west on Fri-Sat (8/7) continuing the lockdown while sweeping east offering nothing. On Mon (8/9) there's some suggestion of a weak trough pushing northeast while tracking east from under New Zealand perhaps offerings some hope, but winds to be only 90 kts lifting up into the trough likely offering nothing to support gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere.

Surface Analysis
On Monday (8/2) swell was starting to hit California from a gale previously in the far Southeast Pacific (see Another Southeast Pacific Gale below). After that there was no swell in the water.

Over the next 72 hours a cutoff gale is forecast developing east of New Zealand on Tues AM (8/3) producing 35+ kt south winds along the northeast coast of NZ getting some traction. In the evening south winds to be 35-40 kts over a solid area with seas building to 23 ft at 39S 176.5W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (8/4) 30-35 kt south winds are to continue with seas 25 ft over a small area at 38S 171W aimed northeast. Fetch is to hold on in the evening at 30-35 kts over a broad area aimed north with barely 25 ft seas at 35S 163W aimed northeast. Fetch is to fade after that with seas 22-23 ft on Thurs AM (8/5) at 35S 158W aimed northeast and fading. Low odds for swell resulting for California through Hawaii and Tahiti could get some rideable swell if all develops are forecast.

 

Another Southeast Pacific Gale
On Sun AM (7/25) a small gale started building over the Central South Pacific with 45 kt southwest winds and seas 33 ft over a tiny area at 55.25S 148W aimed northeast. In the evening a broad area of 35 kt southwest winds were lifting northeast with a core to 40-45 kts and seas building in coverage at 30-31 ft at 49.5S 141.75W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (7/26) south fetch was fading but broad in coverage at 30-35 kts with a core to 45 kts and seas 26-28 ft at 52.75S 131W but reaching north to 45S 135W aimed north-northeast. In the evening fetch was fading from 35-40 kts from the south with seas 29 ft at 50S 128W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (7/27) fetch was fading from 30-35 kts aimed north with seas fading from 25 ft at 47S 125W aimed northeast. This system was gone after that. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Swell building Mon (8/2) to 1.6 ft @ 15 secs later (2.5 ft). Additional energy building on Tues (8/3) to 2.5 ft @ 16 secs mid-day (4.0 ft). Swell stable on Wed (8/4) at 2.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fading some on Thurs (8/5) from 2.2 ft @ 14 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (8/6) at 1.9 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Sat (8/7) fading from 1.7 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

Northern CA: Swell building Mon (8/2) to 1.5 ft @ 16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Additional energy building on Tues (8/3) to 2.3 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-day (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell stable on Wed (8/4) at 2.3 ft @ 15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fading some on Thurs (8/5) from 2.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (8/6) at 2.2 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Sat (8/7) fading from 1.8 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina Redeveloping
Summary - Cool water is building across the subsurface equatorial Pacific with warm water from previous Kelvin Waves fading and existing only in the east. The forecast suggests east anomalies taking over the equatorial Pacific from the dateline eastward in later August. And a high pressure bias is forecast to control the KWGA this Fall. Blocking high pressure is starting to rebuild and is to hold through Winter 2021-2022.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Spring/Summer 2021 = 4.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 is on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state will set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But lingering effects of La Nina are forecast to continue over the Pacific for some time as the upper atmospheric circulation slowly transitions to an ENSO neutral state. This scenario tend to favor the Southeast Pacific, therefore favoring California over Hawaii. To counter that is the forecasted movement of the low pressure bias currently in-flight from the Maritime Continent to the West Pacific over the next 3 months. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a slightly less than normal swell production forecast. A somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected as compared to normal over the South Pacific during the early summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by the Fall and early Winter of 2021/22, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/30) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific then strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate over the KWGA. Anomalies were moderate east over the far East equatorial Pacific and weak east over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (8/2) a mix of weak east and west anomalies were over the KWGA though mostly favoring the east anomaly mode. The forecast calls for east anomalies starting to build in coverage from here forward at modest status in the core of the KWGA filling the KWGA by 8/6 and holding through the end of the model run on 8/9. No sign of the Active Phase of the MJO is forecast.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (8/1) A weak Inactive MJO was indicated trying to build over the KWGA today. The statistic model projects an Inactive Pattern building over the KWGA on day 5 of the model run filling the KWGA on day 10 then fading in coverage some on day day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects the same thing initially but with the Inactive Phase far weaker on day 5 of the model run and modest on day 10 then quickly disintegrating on day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (8/2) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the West Atlantic and forecast tracking steadily east to North Africa at very weak weak status 15 days out. The dynamic model suggests the same thing but with the Active Phase migrating to the Central Indian Ocean on day 15 of the model run.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (8/1) A modest Active Phase (wet air) was indicated over the East Pacific. The Active Phase is to push fast east moving into Central America on 8/16. A solid Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be moving over the KWGA on 8/16 tracking steadily east and into the far East Pacific at the end of the model run on 9/10. A weak Active Phase is to try and be moving into the far West KWGA on 9/5.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/1) This model depicts a cohesive Active MJO signal over the KWGA today with modest west anomalies over the same area tracking east. The forecast indicates the Active MJO signal is to move through the KWGA through 8/10 with modest west anomalies in the KWGA during that window. East anomalies are to rebuild in the core of the KWGA at modest status starting 8/7 filling the KWGA and holding through the end of the model run on 8/29 with the Inactive Phase developing and passing through 8/9-8/21.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/2 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): Today a weak Active Phase of the MJO was slowly fading over the KWGA with weak west anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Active Phase is to exit the KWGA on 8/7 with weak west anomalies fading at that time. The Inactive Phase is to follow tracking east 8/5-9/2 with weak to modest east anomalies taking over the KWGA. A broader Active Phase is to develop while slowly pushing east 8/22 through the end of the model run with west anomalies reaching east to about 170E (70% of the way across the KWGA) through that timeframe. A weak Inactive MJO pattern is to try and push into the KWGA on 10/13 but fading with a neutral MJO pattern in control at the end of the model run on 10/30 with mostly weak west anomalies holding over the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is in control over the far East Pacific (with one contour line) and the low pressure bias over the West KWGA centered at 120E filling the western 50% of the KWGA to 150E. The high pressure contour line is to hold over the far East Pacific then back-build west on the dateline on 8/27 and not moving any further west at the end of the model run with a second contour line developing on 10/13. The single contour low pressure bias is to dissipate on 8/15 then rebuild 9/5 recentered over the Maritime Continent at 100E like last winter and holding through the end of the model run. East anomalies to take over the KWGA east of 165E on 8/30 with west anomalies west of there and no change forecast. This suggests a return to some flavor of a weak La Nina pressure pattern by September with east anomalies and high a pressure bias taking over from the mid-KWGA and points east of there. This forecast has been stable for over a month now suggesting it will actually happen.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/31) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 173E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 170W. The 24 deg isotherm was backing west to 121W today. Warm water is definitely receding west. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +0-1 deg C were pushing east mostly just below the surface in a thin stream into Ecuador. Cool anomalies at -3 degs were building subsurface below the warm stream with a core at 160W with it's leading edge at 105W and moving east. This indicates warm water from previous Kelvin Waves were fading and a cool water wave was building underneath set to erupt. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/27 was even more stark suggesting no warm water remaining east of the dateline except for one small pocket near Ecuador. A solid stream of cool water was pushing up from 150 meters down on the dateline to within 30 meters of the surface in the east just west of the Galapagos. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/27) Sea heights were falling over the entire equatorial Pacific with negative anomalies at -5 to -10 cms over the East equatorial Pacific between 90W-175W on the equator and all positive anomalies gone west of 160E. The warm water 'horseshoe' pattern was redeveloping in the West Pacific. La Nina is making a return.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (8/1) The latest images depict warm water on the equator limited to the area from Ecuador west to a point a bit west of the Galapagos (105W), then only in pockets from there west to 140W with mostly cooler waters developing in waves, and only cooler waters west of there. An area of weak warming was breaking up along Chile and Peru. A more cohesive pocket of warm water was along Central America up to Southern Baja. Overall this seems to indicate the return of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/1): A mix of mostly cold pockets were filling the area from Ecuador to 145W.
Hi-res Overview: (8/1) A broad area of warmer than normal water was nearshore along Peru, then off Ecuador and Central America up into Mexico but brick walled limited from 105W and points east of there. Cooler waters were on the equator from 110W to the dateline. A clear cool outflow was still pushing from California southwest to the a point south of Hawaii. La Nina appears to be trying to make a resurgence.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/2) Today's temps were toggling around +0.034 after falling to -0.411 on 7/8. Temps previously peaked at +0.213 on 6/17, the highest since 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. But in between they've been in the -0.75 range. The longterm trend has been stable and mostly below normal.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(8/2) Today temps were stable at -0.234, after bottoming out at -0.234 on 7/31. Temps previously peaked at +0.332 on 7/1, the highest in a year. They previously reached up to +0.224 on 6/15 and before that at +0.085 on (6/1), beating the previous peak high of +0.040 on 5/3. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3. Temps have been on a steadily increasing trend.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (8/2) - Actuals per the model indicate temps had been rising since early Nov 2020 when they bottomed out at -1.25 degs, building to -0.01 degs in mid-June holding to mid-July. The forecast indicates a steady fall in temperatures from 7/15 forward dropping to -0.95 degs in mid-Oct and holding in that area to mid Jan 2022. A slow but steady increase is forecast from there rising to +0.00 degs in mid April 2022. This model suggests a return of La Nina conditions this Fall and Winter. There is no indication that El Nino will develop. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temp falling only to -0.80 degs later in Oct into early Jan 2022.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.23 degs today, and are to fade steadily to -0.55 degrees in Nov and stabilizing there into December, then rising to neutral in Feb 2022. A weak return of La Nina is expected this Fall and Winter 2021-2022.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (8/2): The daily index was still positive at +4.92 after peaking at +37.86 on 7/15. The Inactive Phase was solid. The 30 day average was fading some at +14.37 after rising to +16.49 on 7/29 after falling to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year and beating the previous low on 6/14 of -2.08. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was rising to +7.43 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative every since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. As of May 2021 it was the most negative its been at -2.04 since Sept 2012. Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'). It is more likely we are still in the cool phase of the PDO.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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