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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Saturday, March 28, 2020 11:23 AM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.5 - California & 1.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 3/30 thru Sun 4/5

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Another Small S. Hemi Swell Forecast
Moderate Storm Behind

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Barbers Point (Buoy 238) : Seas were 3.7 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 10.1 secs from 175 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 5.7 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 4.2 ft @ 9.2 secs from 28 degrees. Water temp 74.3 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 0.9 ft @ 16.1 secs from 170 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 7-8 kts. Water temperature 59.0 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 1.7 ft @ 15.1 secs from 258 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.0 ft @ 15.5 secs from 216 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.1 ft @ 15.9 secs from 196 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 3.8 ft @ 7.5 secs from 291 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 3.8 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 14.0 secs from 250 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was north at 1-2 kts. Water temp 54.1 degs (013), 55.6 degs (012) and 56.8 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (3/28) in North and Central CA windswell was producing waves at waist high and clean and soft but rideable. Protected breaks were thigh to waist high and clean and very soft and mushed and barely rideable. At Santa Cruz occasional sets were waist high and clean and soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high or so and clean and very weak. In North Orange Co surf was waist high on the sets coming from the south and mushed with a little warble in the water but otherwise clean. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were waist high and super clean but soft and mushed. North San Diego had surf in the waist high range and lined up and clean but generally weak. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was getting some thigh high sets and soft and clean. The East Shore was getting easterly windswell at 3 ft overhead and moderately chopped with easterly trades in control.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (3/28) no swell of interest was hitting either Hawaii or California. That said the last little dribbles of swell from a gale previously northeast of New Zealand Tues-Thurs (2/20) producing up to 39 ft seas aimed north was fading out in California. Looking forward a weak low pressure system is forecast Sun-Mon (3/30) in the Northern Gulf producing 16 ft seas aimed southeast. Some windswell is possible to result for CA. Nothing else to follow. Down south gale formed in the far Southeast Pacific on Fri-Sat (3/21) producing up to 38 ft seas aimed north but well east of the SCal swell window targeting mainly Central America. Swell should be hitting now in SCal but there's no signs of it. A small gale developed on the eastern edge of the CA swell window on Tues (3/24) producing up to 33 ft seas aimed north. Small swell is radiating towards CA and points south of there. And the models continue suggesting a gale forming in the Central South Pacific on Sun (3/29) lifting northeast to the Southeast Pacific through Tues (3/31) producing seas up to 38 ft aimed northeast. This is a big downgrade from previous forecasts suggesting up to 52 ft seas. Still it's something to monitor. And secondary fetch to produce up to 36 ft seas in the same area on Tues (3/31) aimed well northeast. But after that things are to go to sleep.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Saturday (3/28) no swell was in the water over the North Pacific with high pressure in control.

Over the next 72 hours low pressure is forecast developing in the Northern Gulf of Alaska on Sun (3/29) producing 25-30 kt northwest winds producing 15 ft seas at 52N 149W aimed southeast. Fetch is to hold in the evening if not build in coverage slightly with seas building to 17 ft at 51N 141W aimed southeast. Fetch is to be pushing into British Columbia on Mon AM (3/30) at 30 kts with seas pushing to 18 ft at 49N 135W aimed southeast and mostly east of the NCal swell window. The gale is to be fading in the evening with seas mainly just off the coast of Vancouver Islands pushing to shore and of no interest. Windswell to possibly result for North CA on Tues-Wed (4/1).

NCal: Assuming this system forms as forecast expect windswell to arrive on Tues (3/31) building to 5 ft @ 10-11 secs later (5.0 ft). Windswell to continue on Wed (4/1) at 4.0 ft @ 11 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 315 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Saturday (3/28) south winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA holding all day. Rain building for North CA pushing south to Big Sur later. Light snow for the Sierra starting late afternoon peaking overnight. Sun (3/29) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North and Central CA and 10 kts for Southern CA and holding all day but building to 15 kts for Southern CA later. Rain for North CA reaching south to Pt Conception late afternoon. Modest snow for all the Sierra through the day fading in the evening. Mon (3/30) southwest winds are to be 10-15 kts for North CA as low pressure moves into the Pacific Northwest and northwest 10-15 kts for Central CA holding all day. Rain pushing south into North CA terminating at Bodega Bay late afternoon. No snow forecast for the Sierra. Tues (3/31) the low is to be fading out with northwest winds 10-15 kts for North and Central CA and 20 kts over Pt Conception. No precipitation forecast. Wed (4/1) high pressure returns with northwest winds 20 kts for North and Central CA all day. No precip with clearing skies. Thurs (4/2) no change is forecast with high pressure and northwest winds 20-25 kts all day for North CA but 10-15 kts for Central CA. On Fri (4/3) northwest winds driven by high pressure are to be 20 kts for North and Central CA fading to 10-15 kts for Central Ca later. Sat (4/4) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and 5-10 kts for Central CA fading mid-day.

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 5, 7, 7 and 1-2 inches respectively.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (3/28) the jetstream was consolidated pushing well south of New Zealand down at 65S with winds to 130 kts then lifting gently northeast up to 60S over the Southeastern Pacific at 110 kts but with no clear troughs indicated offering no real support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours starting Sun PM (3/29) much the same is forecast but with a gentle trough starting to develop over the South Central Pacific being fed by 120 kts and lifting decently northeast into Tues (3/31) being fed by up to 130 kts winds offering some support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting Wed (4/1) the trough is to get better defined in the far Southeast Pacific then tracking east on Thurs (4/2) out of the SCal swell window while losing energy and no longer supporting gale formation. Beyond the jet is to be weak generally tracking east on the 60S latitude line but with no troughs forecast until maybe Sat (4/4) when a weak trough is projected developing under New Zealand. The good news is the ice line is very far south (down around 75S). The Bad news is the jet is weak and not supportive of trough/gale formation.

 

Surface Analysis
Swell from small gale that formed in the far Southeast Pacific is supposedly starting to hit Southern CA, though there's no evidence of it. (see Far Southeast Pacific Gale below).
And another small gale formed in the Southeast Pacific with swell from it also radiating north (See Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast developing well south of New Zealand and just off Antarctica on Sun AM (3/29) producing 40-45 kts southwest winds over a modest sized area and seas building from 30 ft at 68S 162.5W. In the evening winds to build to 45 kts from the south-southwest aimed well north with seas building 36 ft at 65S 155W aimed northeast. The gale is to lift northeast on Mon AM (3/30) with south-southwest winds still 45 kts and seas 37 ft over a decent sized area at 59.5S 146W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale is to start fading while tracking northeast with 35-45 kt southwest winds in pockets and seas dissipating from 34 ft at 55.5S 134W aimed northeast. Southwest fetch is to be fading Tues AM (3/31) from 30-35 kts over a solid area with seas from previous fetch fading from 29 ft over a broad area at 54S 127W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

 

Far Southeast Pacific Gale
A small gale formed on Fri AM (3/20) in the far Southeast Pacific off Chile with south winds 45 kts producing 30 ft over a tiny area at 49.5S 109W and well east of the Southern CA swell window. The gale built in the evening with a larger area of south winds at 45-50 kts and seas 37 ft at 44.5S 104W targeting Central America and Peru. The gale started fading Sat AM (3/21) with 40 kt south winds with seas fading from 38 ft at 41.5S 100.5W targeting primarily Peru. The gale dissipated in the evening no longer producing meaningful seas. Low odds of sideband swell radiating north towards Southern CA but far better for Mexico and Central America.

Southern CA: Swell peaking on Sat (3/28) at 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (3/29) from 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 168 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (3/28) building to 1.4 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (3/29) from 1.3 ft @ 16 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 165 degrees

 

Southeast Pacific Gale
A small gale started building in the far Southeast Pacific Mon AM (3/23) producing south winds at 35-40 kts with seas building from 23 ft at 49S 138W aimed north. Fetch built in coverage while tracking east in the evening with seas building to 27 ft aimed north at 50S 130W aimed northeast. The gale built some more on Tues AM (3/24) on the eastern edge of the CA swell window with 40+ kt south to southeast winds and 28 ft seas building at 54S 122 W aimed north. Fetch is to be fading and tracking southeast in the evening at 40 kts with seas 32 ft at 50S 114W. The gale to fade and move east of the CA swell window from there. Possible small swell for CA and points south of there.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (4/1) building to 1.7 ft @ 17 secs late (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell building on Thurs (4/2) to 2.0 ft @ 15 secs mid-day (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 188 degrees.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (4/2) with swell building to 1.7 ft @ 17 secs (2.5-3.0 ft) mid-day. Swell Direction: 183 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours secondary fetch is to develop in the Southeast Pacific at 40-45 kts aimed well northeast with 26 ft seas developing at 64S 141W aimed northeast. In the evening a small fetch of south winds is to be pushing north-northeast at 45-50 kts with 36 ft seas at 57.5S 131W aimed northeast. Fetch is to be rapidly fading in coverage Wed AM (4/1) in the far Southeast Pacific from 50 kts with seas 39 ft at 53S 116W aimed northeast. This system is to fade and push well out of the SCal swell window. Something to monitor.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Inactive MJO All But Gone - West Anomalies Forecast

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water hold in a pool off Peru and has not changed as of late Jan 2020.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 is fading out, but not yet completely gone, especially in the atmosphere. Likewise it looks like a La Nina ocean temperature pattern is developing in the equatorial East Pacific, with cooler than normal waters tracking west on the equator. We assumed El Nino like momentum will hold for a while in the atmosphere will take a while to sense that the ocean temperature pattern has changed. But once it does, a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern will start to develop. that transition is expected in the late Nov-early Dec timeframe. Even so, moderation from the PDO might prevent La Nina from fully developing. Given all that, there is decent probability for a normal start to the Fall surf season (in the Northern Hemisphere) meaning a normal amount of number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in a normal levels of swell, with normal duration and normal period. But by mid-Dec 2019, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start fading and as a result, swell production should fade slightly as well. This pattern is expected to hold through April 2020.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (3/27) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and then solid east over the Dateline and the whole of the KWGA. Anomalies were moderate east over the far East equatorial Pacific fading over the Central Pacific and then modest to moderate easterly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (3/28) modest east anomalies were over the KWGA mainly from the dateline eastward. The forecast calls for east anomalies holding from 170E and points east of there with west anomalies starting to build 3/30 to modest strength at the end of the model run on 4/4.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (3/27) A moderate Inactive MJO was filling the KWGA today with the Active Phase solid in the Eastern Indian Ocean. The statistic model indicates the Inactive Phase is to fade to modest status on day 5 then then gone on day 10 with the Active Phase building over the KWGA and fading some but still covering the KWGA on day 15. The dynamic model indicates almost exactly the same thing.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (3/28) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was modest over the Eastern Indian Ocean today and is to track east while loosing strength and very weak over the West Pacific at day 15. The GEFS model suggests the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (3/28) This model depicts the Inactive Phase was moderate moving over Central America and moving out of the Pacific with a strong Active Phase over the far West Pacific. The Active Phase is to track east and is to push into Central America on 4/20. A modest Inactive Phase is to start building in the West Pacific on 4/22 moving east over the West Pacific reaching the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 5/7.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/27) This model depicts a weak Active MJO pattern was developing over the KWGA today with the Inactive Phase tracking east and mostly out of the East KWGA. The forecast indicates the Active Phase and modest west anomalies associated with it pushing steadily east and out of the KWGA on 4/12. A weak Inactive MJO pattern is to follow starting 4/12 in the West KWGA with moderate east anomalies pushing east through the KWGA through the end of the model run on 4/24.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/28 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts a weak Inactive MJO pattern over the KWGA today with moderate east anomalies in the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is to hold through 4/4 but with weak west anomalies starting to build in the KWGA on 4/1. Beyond a modest Active Phase is forecast developing 4/9 holding through 4/28 with moderate west anomalies in the KWGA. A moderate Inactive Phase/Pattern is to develop 4/23 holding through 5/15 with a short duration of east anomalies 5/1-5/7 but then turning to west anomalies 5/8 with a weak Active Phase taking root 5/10-5/20. Another Inactive Phase is to follow 5/23-6/10 with weak west anomalies in control. A moderate Active Phase is to follow 6/10 through the end of the model run on 6/25 with west anomalies in control. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to the California coast. The second contour line is to dissipate on 3/29, with one contour line holding after that through the end of the model run. A high pressure bias previously built in the Indian Ocean last Fall and is to hold till June 8 then dissipate. East anomalies set up in the Indian Ocean starting 10/22/19 and held through Jan 10, then started to become more episodic and are to continue that way, then fading on 6/6 while west anomalies persist in the West Pacific, but slowly retrograding west, but still in the KWGA at the end of the model run. It looks like the high pressure bias/blocking pattern in the Indian Ocean is fading and the effect of the low pressure bias in the Pacific is to start fading too by early Summer, maybe.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (3/28) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was retrograding west to 162E. The 29 deg isotherm was retrograding to 179E today. The 28 deg isotherm line which previously was a brick wall aligned and steady at 163W was repositioned moving east to 151W but with most body still at 160W at depth today. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing into Ecuador. Anomaly wise, Kelvin Wave #6 was under the dateline at +2.0 degs tracking from the Maritime Continent under the dateline with it's leading edge pushing east to 95W today at +1 degs. Warm water was filling the entire equatorial subsurface Pacific from 150 meters upwards. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/24 indicates warm water had formed a Kelvin Wave with warm water falling from 120E down into the dateline at 130m deep peaking there at +2-3 degrees then pushing and rising east to 103W. A pocket of cool water was east of there associated with the upwelling phase of the previous Kelvin Wave Cycle. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/24) A previously broad pocket of +1-5 cm anomalies was fading on the equatorial Pacific between 145W pushing east to 110W.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (3/27) The latest images indicate warm anomalies were modest along the coast of Chile up into Peru and building in coverage from days past with building warm anomalies continuing up along Ecuador up into Central America. But 2 pockets of cool water were embedded and streaming to the west over the Galapagos to 107W. Markedly warmer water was aligned on the equator from there to the dateline. A broad pocket of cool anomalies was still south of the equator off Peru with a mirror image of it off California and Baja.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (3/27): Weak warming was building off Peru tracking west and also off Central America but far weaker tracking southwest and no longer converging on the equator. Instead a building pocket of cooling was developing pushing off Ecuador over the Galapagos and out to nearly 160W on the equator indicative of a building stream of easterly winds and upwelling waters in the East Equatorial Pacific. The short term trend is looking like developing cool tongue was building over the East Equatorial Pacific.
Hi-res Overview: (3/27) A pocket of cool anomalies is trying to hold south of the equator starting at 5S west of Peru between 100W and 140W but losing some coverage compared to days past. A mirror image of it was also off California and Baja Mexico out to 160W. Warm anomalies were building along Chile and Peru then stronger up to Ecuador and Central America up to Mainland Mexico out over the Galapagos. But a cool tongue was extending from Panama over the Galapagos to 110W. Warmer than normal water were tracking from the Galapagos out to the dateline and beyond. Water temps appear to be stable indicating a weak mixture of both El Nino and La Nina.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/28) Today's temps were falling some to +0.480, positive in that range since 2/28. Previously temps had been toggling near neutral. It now appears we are in a rising or at least warmer trend.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(3/28) Temps were falling some at +0.571. Temps previously were in the +0.2 degree range but rose to the +0.4 degree range on 1/4 and have been holding steady ever since.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (3/28) Actual's indicate temperatures started rising in early Oct to +0.25 degs holding to Dec 1 then rising again to +0.65 degs Jan 1 2020 holding through Feb. From there temps started falling early March down to +0.5 degs. The forecast depicts temps falling, down to 0.0 in early May then diving negative appearing to be moving strongly to La Nina down at -1.5 in early Oct bottoming out at -1.55 degs early Nov and holding there. According to this model a neutral sea surface temperature pattern biased slightly warm is forecast for Spring of 2020 but falling strongly towards La Nina in the core of Summer.
IRI Consensus Plume: The March 19, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at +0.30 degs, and are to slow fade to neutral +0.00 in June 2020, then falling some to -0.15 degs in the October 2020 timeframe. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (3/26): The daily index was solidly negative today at -15.61 and has been negative for 13 day now. The 30 day average was falling at -6.05. The 90 day average was falling some at -2.50, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was developing.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): Dec +0.46, Nov +1.03, Oct +0.27 Sept +1.11, August +0.60, July +0.75, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.30, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (3/22):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxXqLrE8auw&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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