Thursday, January 4, 2018
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 5.9 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 4.1 ft @ 12.0 secs from 313 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 1.5 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 0.9 ft @ 15.5 secs from 273 degrees. Wind at the buoy was east at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 61.0 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.7 secs from 272 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 14.6 secs from 245 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 1.2 ft @ 10.4 secs from 239 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.8 ft @ 12.1 secs from 271 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 8.8 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 5.2 ft @ 15.8 secs from 285 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southeast at 18-23 kts. Water temp 56.5 degs.
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Thursday (1/4) in North and Central CA new swell from the Dateline-Western Gulf was hitting producing waves in the double overhead range with clean surface conditions but with a fair amount of southerly lump running through it. Protected breaks were shoulder to head high on the sets and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was 2 ft overhead on the set and reasonably clean but still with lump running through it. In Southern California up north surf was pretty quiet but with occasional shoulder to head high sets and clean and lined up. In North Orange Co surf was waist high or so on the sets and clean but mostly breaking on the beach. South Orange Country's best breaks were maybe waist high and clean. In San Diego surf was waist high and lined up and clean. Hawaii's North Shore was getting residual Dateline-West Gulf swell with waves head high to 1 ft overhead on the sets and clean but inconsistent. The South Shore was near flat and clean. The East Shore was getting northwest wrap around swell waist high and chopped from moderate east-northeast wind.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Thursday (1/4) swell from a gale that formed Sun-Mon (1/1) lifting from west of the Dateline up into the Northern Gulf producing 30-32 ft seas aimed east was hitting California with some size up north but fading in Hawaii. And another gale followed positioned further south off Japan and was moving to the dateline Tues-Fri (1/5) with 33 ft seas initially fading to 22 ft later aimed east. Another stronger system to follow tracking over the Dateline Sun-Mon (1/8) with up to 47 ft seas aimed east with remnants Tues (1/9) fading from 36 ft on the Northern Dateline aimed east. And yet another system is to form on the Dateline Wed-Thurs (1/11) with 34+ ft seas aimed east. So a fairly active and stronger pattern is forecast.
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Thursday AM (1/4) the jetstream was pushing solidly east over Japan with winds to 160 kts building to 170 kts over the dateline and forming a trough there offering good support for gale development. The jet ridged slightly east of there then fell southeast into a pinched trough at 140W then splitting, with the northern branch pushing northeast up into Northern Canada with the southern branch tracking east Baja and Southern CA. The pattern looked more favorable than it has for weeks. Over the next 72 hours the trough is to loose definition Fri (1/5) though still present being fed by 160 kt winds and fading more on Saturday (1/6) but pushing the split point east to 135W (the furthest east of the season) and then into British Columbia 24 hours later. At the same time winds to rebuild off Japan to 190 kts on Sun (1/7) again starting to carve out a tight trough mid-way to the dateline and starting to support gale formation. Beyond 72 hours the trough is to build while pushing east-northeast to the Northern Dateline on Monday (1/8) continuing to support gale formation while wind energy starts building while ridging slight off Japan to 180 kts then falling into the dateline trough. Later Tues (1/9) winds to build to 200 kts solidly off Japan but ridging slightly northeast to the dateline then falling into the remnants of the Dateline trough but now repositioned in the Western Gulf and pinched. The interesting thing is the jet is to be consolidated over the width of the North Pacific pushing directly into the Pacific Northwest offering support for precipitation there. More of the same is forecast through 180 hrs (Thurs 1/11) with 200 kt winds ridging slightly over the dateline falling into a broad gentle trough in the Western Gulf providing some support for gale development with the jet again starting to split at 155W with remnant energy pushing into the Pacific Northwest with the southern branch tries to rebuild pushing weakly just west of Hawaii and heading east from there. In all a favorable pattern is projected.
On Thursday (1/4) swell from a gale that developed over the dateline pushing northeast was fading in Hawaii and peaking in Northern CA (See Dateline Gale below). Another gale was developing while migrating to the dateline (see Another Dateline Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours another gale is to start forming in the West Pacific off North Japan on Sat PM (1/6) generating a small area of 60 kt west winds with seas building from 33 ft at 37N 162E. On Sun AM (1/7) northwest winds to be 55 kts over a tiny area aimed southeast while the gale lifts northeast with seas 45 ft over a tiny area at 38N 169E. The gale is to track northeast in the evening with winds still 50-55 kts over a solid area with 51 ft seas at 41N 177E aimed east. On Mon AM (1/8) the gale is to continue tracking northeast and over the North Dateline region with 45-50 kt northwest winds and seas fading from 46 ft at 42N 176W aimed east at the US West Coast. In the evening the gale is to be moving into over the Central Aleutians with 45 kt west winds over a decent area south of the Central Aleutians with 42 ft seas fading free and clear just south of the Aleutians at 47N 175W. Secondary fetch is to be developing from 45 kts from the northwest Tues AM (1/9) with seas 34-36 ft over a broad area south of the Central Aleutians at 47N 175W aimed east. Fetch is to be fading from 40 kts in the evening with seas fading from 35 ft at 47N 176W. This system is to be gone from there. Something to monitor.
A gale developed in association with the broad trough over the dateline Sun AM (12/31) with 40 kt northwest winds over a small area on the dateline and 25 ft seas at 35N 177E aimed east. In the evening winds built to 45 kts from the west over a small area with seas building to 33 ft at 39N 170W. On Monday AM (1/1) the gale was lifting northeast in the Western Gulf with 45 kt west winds generating a moderate area of 31 ft seas at 45N 158W. In the evening winds are held while tracking northeast at 45 kts over a small area in the Northern Gulf aimed northeast with 31 ft seas holding at 52N 152W. This system was fading Tues AM (1/2) in the Northern Gulf with winds fading from 40 kts and seas 32 ft up at 57N 150W impacting Alaska directly. Swell is radiating east with sideband energy towards Hawaii and more direct but distant energy towards California.
Hawaii: Residuals on Thurs AM (1/4) fading from 3.6 ft @ 13 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 315 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues PM (1/2) after sunset and slowly building peaking Wed AM (1/3) at 5.6 ft @ 15 secs (8.0 ft) and holding through the day. Swell slowly fading Thurs AM (1/4) from 5.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (8.0 ft). Residuals on Fri AM (1/5) from 5.0 ft @ 13 secs (6.5 ft). Swell continues Sat (1/6) fading from 5.0 ft @ 12-13 secs (6.0 ft) with windswell intermixed. Swell dropping out on Sun (1/7) from 4.3 ft @ 11 secs (4.5-5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 295 degrees.
Another Dateline Gale
Another gale developed off Japan on Tues AM (1/2) with 40 kts northwest winds and seas building from 28 ft aimed east at 37N 156E. In the evening 40 kt west fetch was tracking east with seas building to 32 ft over a small area at 37N 162E aimed east. The gale is to start building in coverage west of the dateline Wed AM (1/3) with additional 40 kts west winds and seas building to 33 ft at 38N 168E targeting Hawaii well. The gale started to fragment in the evening while lifting northeast with west winds 35-40 kts in a pocket south of the core and seas building to 30 ft there at 35N 172E. On Thurs AM (1/4) the core of the gale was over the North Dateline region while fetch lagged well south of there on the dateline at 35-40 kts from the west and southwest with seas fading from 28 ft at at 33N 175E. 35 kt west winds to be pushing northeast in the evening with 25 ft seas at 35N 178W targeting Hawaii and the US West Coast. Fri AM (12/5) the gale is to be fading well to the north over and north of the Eastern Aleutians with winds 30-35 kts south of there over the North Dateline region with seas from the original fetch fading from 22 ft at 41N 173W targeting Hawaii and the US West Coast. The gale is to be solely over the North Dateline region Fri PM with west winds 30-35 kts from the west with 24 ft seas just south of the Aleutians at 49N 178E aimed east. Fetch to be fading from 30-35 kts from the west Sat AM (1/6) with 22-24 ft seas roughly at 47N 177W. The gale is to be gone from there. A long run of swell looks possible mainly for the US West Coast.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sat (1/6) building to 5.2 ft @ 16 secs later (8.5 ft). Swell fading Sun AM (1/7) (4.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (6.5 ft). Residuals on Mon AM (1/8) fading from 2.8 ft @ 13 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 308 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest were being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday AM (1/4) a front associated with a cutoff low tracking up the Pacific Northwest and British columbia coast was impacting North CA with 20-25 kts south winds there and south winds 15 kts down to Morro Bay indicated. Light rain was indicated on the models from Pt Conception northward but none was in evidence in the SF Bay Area. Fri (1/5) another little low is to be wrapping up off South Oregon with southwest winds 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino early but south 10 kts south of there to Pt Conception and fading late with light rain forecast from Morro Bay northward through daylight hours. Light rain for Tahoe too but no snow. Sat (1/6) weak high pressure starts building into the SF Bay Area with north winds 10 kts early and 15 kts in the afternoon over all of North and Central CA. Light rain for Central CA early. Maybe some light snow for Tahoe and the Southern Sierra early. Sunday (1/7) north wind is expected at 10 kts for North and Central CA early fading later. Monday high pressure moves inland with low pressure building off the coast with southeast winds 5-10 kts early for all of North and Central CA building to 20 kts later with rain building into the coast from Santa Barbara northward to Cape Mendocino focused on the SF Bay Area. Snow for the highest peaks in the Sierra. Tuesday (1/9) the core of the low is to be over San Francisco with south winds 20 kts early from SF down to the Los Angles area turning north 30-35 kts later afternoon over Central CA and northwest 20 kts for San Diego. Solid rain developing for Pt Arena southward to San Diego. Heavy snow possible for the entire Sierra fading overnight. Wednesday north winds forecast at 20+ kts early for the entire state and up to 30 kts near San Francisco fading only slightly through the day. Light rain fading early over Southern CA. Thurs (1/11) north winds fading from 15 kts early for North and Central CA. No rain forecast except for north Cape Mendocino.
No swell producing winds of interest were occurring.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours perhaps another gale is to develop off the Kuril Islands on Tues PM (1/9) producing a developing fetch of 40 kt west winds aimed east with seas building. By Wed PM (1/10) 40-45 kts west winds to be building over abroad area between the Kuril's and the Western Gulf with a small area of up to 34 ft seas at 48N 167E embedded in a broad area of 20+ ft seas filling the Northwest Pacific. Thurs AM (1/11) 45+ kt west winds to be approaching the Dateline with 36 ft seas at 48N 173E aimed east. In the evening 35-40 kts west winds to be over abroad area on the dateline with 34-36 ft seas at 47N 180W aimed east. Something to monitor.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather system nor fetch is forecast.
More details to follow...
Inactive MJO Taking Control
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and have not stopped, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. So it appears now a double dip La Nina is setting up and is to continue through the Winter and Spring of 2017-2018.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Wed (1/3) 5 day average winds were from the east over the entire equatorial Pacific including the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were neutral over the East Pacific but moderate easterly over the entire KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (1/4) Moderate to strong east anomalies were modeled over the entire KWGA. This pattern is to amplify over the next 3 days with strong east anomalies expected over the core of the KWGA and holding through 1/8, then fading and moving east confined to the Eastern KWGA at the end of the model run on 1/11. The Inactive Phase of the MJO looks to be building per this model.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: As of 1/31 a moderate Inactive/Dry Phase was over the West Pacific. The statistical model depicts the Inactive/Dry Phase slowly easing east and pushing to the dateline over the 15 day run while weakening. The dynamic model depicts a variation on the same theme, but with the Inactive Phase building stronger over the next 15 days.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (1/1) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO modest in strength over the Indian Ocean and is to continue slowly easing east through the Indian Ocean 15 days out. The GEFS model suggests the same thing but with it stronger.
40 day Upper Level Model: (1/4) This model depicts a weak Inactive/Dry MJO pattern over the West Pacific and its to slowly ease east into Central America 2/11. A second pulse of the Inactive Phase is to follow in the west on 1/29 making little headway through the end of the model run on 2/13. This model runs about 1 week ahead of what happens at the surface.
CFS Model - 3 month (850 mb wind): (1/4) This model depicts the Inactive/Dry pattern developing over the KWGA with east anomalies in control of the entire KWGA. The Inactive Phase of the MJO is to build over the dateline peaking 1/12 and holding through 1/20 with east anomalies over the entire KWGA not starting to retreat meaningfully until 1/28. On 1/15 the Active/Wet Phase is to start building over the West Pacific getting decent positioning by 1/20 with west anomalies over the Western KWGA and then building east with weak west anomalies filling the KWGA on 1/28 and holding through 2/21. A weak Inactive Phase is to follow in the West KWGA on 2/17 holding through the end of the model run on 4/2 but west anomalies holding in the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a modest low pressure bias over the west KWGA to 165E and is hold till 2/21, then start moving east reaching the dateline 3/13 with a high pressure bias over the East KWGA at 175E and is to move east and out of the KWGA by 3/1/18. Even so, no significant oceanic change is expected as a result of this until at least May 2018.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (1/4) The overview pattern is that warm water has retreated to the west and cooler water is in control in the east. Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 29-30 degs in the far West Pacific at 160E. The 28 deg isotherm line is steady at 179W and steep (meaning there is a headwind of cooler water pushing into it from the east). The 24 deg isotherm was weak and retreated to 132W and shallow at 50 meters deep at 140W. Anomaly wise it is clear that in the East Pacific warm water gone and instead modestly negative temperatures are at the surface and down to -2 degs C down 150 meters filling the area between Central America to 180W indicative of La Nina. Warm anomalies are isolated to the West Pacific at +3.0 degrees down 100-150 meters deep with the appearance of them pushing east with the dividing line between cool temps and warm temps at depth is 140W down 150 meters. Maybe a Kelvin Wave is developing from the Active Phase of the MJO/WWB that ran 12/15-12/27. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 12/29 depicts a large area of cool water filling the subsurface East Pacific (-2.5 degs) but not as cool as the past months and erupting to the surface almost continuously between Ecuador to 170W with warm anomalies at +4 degs in the west. The cool pool appears to be slowly discharging to the surface and loosing density and intensity at depth. Warm water appears to be pushing east at up to +4.0 at 175E and the leading edge at 160W.
Sea Level Anomalies: (12/29) Negative anomalies are in control at -5 cms over the entire equatorial East Pacific with a core of -10 cm anomalies present between the Galapagos to 155W with no breaks and 1 small pocket to -15 cms.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (1/3) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate a cool pattern remains in control. Upwelling is fading nearshore along Peru and Ecuador with weak warm anomalies shallow near the coast of Chile and Southern Peru. Stronger cool anomalies are tracking west on the equator from the Galapagos out to 140W with a reasonably well defined cool pool evidenced over the entire region. No warm anomalies are indicated within 3+ degs north or south of the equator over the entire region.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/3): A warming trend continues and is building along Chile and Peru, and in some pockets on the equator from the Galapagos out to 140W. There was a equal number of pockets of cooling water interspersed over the same area. A warming trend was developing.
Hi-res Overview: (1/3) Regardless of the short term warming trend indicated above, a clear La Nina cool stream is present starting off Southern Chile and up the coast of Peru and Ecuador then building in coverage and intensity pushing west over the Galapagos and peaking, then slowly fading out to 180W. Cool water at depth is erupting to the surface with the breach point near the Galapagos. There is no sign of warm anomalies in the Nino 1.2 or Nino 3.4 regions. A mature La Nina has evolved.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/4) Today's temps were falling slightly at -1.665 degrees. Temps in this area bottomed out on 12/23 at -2.1 degs, a third near peak negative reading. The lowest point so far in this La Nina was -2.248 degs reached on 11/5. And that low point was lower than the previous coldest point reached on 10/11 at -1.9 degs.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/4) Today temps were falling steadily at -1.203 degs. On (12/7) temps hit a record low at -1.219, just below the previous coldest peak so far this La Nina on 11/22 at -1.156. And the third previous low peak was reached at -1.1 on 11/23. The long arc suggests a solidifying cold pattern. La Nina is in control.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (1/4) The forecast depicts temps bottomed out at -0.80 in early Dec and are to hover at -0.60 degs through Feb. A weak upward trend is to follow with temps reaching -0.5 in April and -0.35 degs in June and holding there. This suggests the peak of La Nina has occurred and it is to be fading into the summer of 2018.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-Dec Plume updated (1/4) depicts temps bottomed out at -0.8 in early Dec and are to slowly rise, to +0.0 in May and +0.3 in August. See chart here - link The NMME consensus for Dec average indicates temps -0.9 degrees below normal Nov-Dec 2018 then rebounding to -0.5 in May and normal by July. It looks like La Nina is peaking out now. The CFSv2 is in the low end of that pack.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (1/4): The daily index was falling at +0.19 today. The 30 day average was falling at -3.48. The 90 day average was falling at +5.19. This suggests La Nina is in control.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive is good, negative bad): (1/4) The index was rising at -1.04. The trend suggests La Nina has lost some of its grip and continues to. Last years La Nina reached -1.94 on 11/2/16 and then fell to -2.20 on 6/28/17. It held pretty negative after that but has been rising some as of late. This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina events.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly negative, but not as much as one would expect with La Nina in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.10, Feb = +0.04, March = +0.12, April=+0.52, May=+0.30, June=+0.19, July= -0.50, Aug= -0.68, Sept = -0.28, Oct= -0.60, Nov = -0.52, Dec= -0.18. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington EDU index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.77, Feb = +0.70, Mar = +0.74, April=+1.12, May=+0.88, June=+0.79, July=+0.10, Aug=0.09, Sept = 0.32, Oct=0.05. No negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table