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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, February 4, 2020 5:14 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.8 - California & 2.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 2/3 thru Sun 2/9

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Small Swell Moving Towards HI
2 More Gales Forecast for West Pacific

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Tuesday, February 4, 2020 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Barbers Point (Buoy 238) : Seas were 3.3 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 8.4 secs from 168 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 5.2 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 4.2 ft @ 9.8 secs from 35 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 6.1 ft @ 5.9 secs with swell 2.8 ft @ 10.2 secs from 252 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 21-29 kts. Water temperature 58.5 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 7.7 ft @ 12.5 secs from 318 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.5 ft @ 10.2 secs from 279 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.2 ft @ 12.6 secs from 238 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 3.2 ft @ 12.4 secs from 276 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 11.7 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 6.7 ft @ 12.7 secs from 311 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was north at 12-16 kts. Water temp 51.8 degs (013), 53.4 degs (012) and 54.7 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (2/4) in North and Central CA local windswell was producing waves at 1 ft overhead and much cleaner than the day before with a modest north flow in effect but still pretty warbled and mushed with poor form. Protected breaks were head high on the sets and lined up but pretty soft and still pretty warbled. At Santa Cruz surf was up to shoulder high and lined up and occasionally peeling on the better sets and clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to chest high and lined up and clean and peeling but a little on the soft side. In North Orange Co surf was shoulder high on the sets and crumbly and soft coming from the north with strong north/offshore winds and nearly whitecaped a bit off the shore. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were flat and clean. North San Diego had sets at maybe waist high and soft and weak but clean with firm offshore wind in control. Best breaks were up to shoulder high on the sets. Hawaii's North Shore had small surf with waves thigh high and clean and soft coming from the north. The South Shore was thigh high and clean with light winds early. The East Shore was getting east windswell with waves head high and somewhat chopped from moderate southeast winds.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (2/4) in California only local windswell was hitting produced by solid high pressure anchored in the Gulf of Alaska. In Hawaii no swell of interest was hitting. A broad gale developed just off the Kuril's Sat-Mon (2/3) producing 31 ft seas in it's east quadrant aimed north sending some sideband swell towards the US West Coast and 30 ft seas in it's west quadrant aimed southeast at Hawaii sending swell in that direction. Another compact gale to follow Tues-Thurs (2/6) producing up to 44 ft seas pushing just over the dateline to the Northwestern Gulf offering potential longer term. And yet a third system is to develop off the Kuril Islands pushing east Thurs-Fri (2/8) producing up to 38 ft seas aimed east then fading on the dateline. And maybe another to follow behind that but limited to the far Northwest Pacific and lifting north Mon-Tues (2/11). So some long distance swell is possible but far smaller than what was hitting in January. A split jetstream pattern is to be hindering gale and swell production east of the dateline for the next few weeks driven by the Inactive Phase of the MJO.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (2/4) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east off Japan on the 35N latitude line with winds 190 kts pushing to the dateline supporting a trough centered just east of the dateline offering some support for gale development there. East of there the jet was split starting at 165W with the northern branch pushing northeast up into the Northern Gulf of Alaska and then into British Columbia offering nothing with the southern branch weak falling over Hawaii then tracking east over Southern Baja. Over the next 72 hours the dateline trough is to fade out quickly on Tues (2/4) while a new trough starts building pushing off the Kuril Islands Thurs-Fri (2/7) offering some support for gale development. The split point to hold at 170W. Beyond 72 hours the same general pattern is to continue with the trough fading on the dateline early Sat (2/8) but with winds holding at 190 kts streaming off Japan forming a new trough pushing east off the Kuril Islands Mon-Tues (2/11) offering decent support for gale development there. To the east the jet is to remain well split with the split point at 165W on Tues (2/11) with the northern branch generally tracking down the US West Coast supporting high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and a north flow pushing down the coast there.


Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (2/4) small swell was tracking towards California and Hawaii from a gale that previously was over the Northwestern Pacific (See Northwestern Pacific Gale below). A new storm was developing in the far Western North Pacific offering swell production potential (see Dateline Storm below).

Over the next 72 hours yet another small storm is forecast develop just off the Kuril Islands on Thurs AM (2/6) with 50 kt west winds over a small area and 32 ft seas at 45N 159E aimed east. In the evening this system is to stall with 45 kt northwest winds holding over a tiny area and 36 ft seas at 44N 164E aimed east. More of the same is forecast on Fri AM (2/7) with the gale holding position and 36 ft seas aimed east at 45.5N 165E. More of the same in the evening with 36 ft seas at 44N 167E aimed east. The gale is to start fading Sat AM (2/8) with fetch fading from 35 kts and lifting northeast with seas fading from 34 ft at 44.5N 171E aimed east. Something to monitor.

 

Dateline Storm
A stronger gale was developing off North Japan on Tues AM (2/4) producing a tiny area of 50-55 kt west winds and seas building from 31 ft at 44N 159E aimed east. In the evening 45-50 kt west winds are to be tracking east fast with 39 ft seas at 44.5N 167E aimed east. On Wed AM (2/5) the storm is to be approaching the dateline with 45-50 kt west winds and 43 ft seas at 46N 172E aimed east over a small area. In the evening the gale is to pushing over the dateline with 40 kt west winds and seas 41 ft at 46N 178W aimed east. On Thurs AM (2/6) the gale is to be fading in the Northwestern Gulf with 35 kt west winds and seas 34 ft at 46.5N 167W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Possible swell arrival late on Fri (2/7) with swell to 3.8 ft @ 20 secs (7.5 ft). Swell Direction: 322 degrees

North CA: Possible swell arrival on Sun (2/9) with period 18 secs building to 4.9 ft @ 17 secs (8.0 ft) and buried in local north windswell. Swell Direction: 302 degrees

 

Northwest Pacific Gale
A broad gale developed off the Kuril Islands and Kamchatka on Sat AM (2/1) with up to 50 kt south winds in it's east quadrant producing 31 ft seas at 41N 176W aimed north at the East Aleutians possibly sending sideband energy east and 40 kt west winds approaching the dateline producing 26 ft seas at 41N 175E aimed east. In the evening 45-50 kt south winds continued in the east quadrant producing 31 ft seas at 42N 169W aimed north but with sideband swell potential and 35 kt west winds in it's west quadrant producing 30 ft seas at 46N 178E aimed somewhat at Hawaii. On Sun AM (2/2) more of the same was occurring with 30 ft seas in the east at 44N 163W aimed north and 33 ft ft seas at 50N 168E aimed south at Hawaii. In the evening 40 kt north winds continued aimed south with 33 ft seas fading at 48N 172E aimed south perhaps targeting Hawaii. The gale tracked east and faded Mon AM (2/3) with 30-35 kt north winds and 28 ft seas fading at 45.5N 174E aimed south at Hawaii. In the evening the gale faded with 30 kt north winds and seas fading from 25 ft at 44N 178W aimed south at Hawaii.

Hawaii: Small swell to arrive on Wed AM (2/5) with swell building to 4.2 ft @ 13-14 secs (5.5 ft). Swell to be building some on Thurs (2/6) to 5.2 ft @ 13-14 secs (6.5 ft) early but with local north winds and windswell taking over as the day continues. Swell Direction: 312 degrees

North CA: Small swell is possible starting Wed (2/5) building to 4.5 ft @ 15-16 secs later (7.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs AM (2/6) from 4.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (6.0 ft). Perhaps a secondary pulse to arrive on Fri AM (2/7) building to 4.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (6.0 ft). Dribbles fading on Sat (2/8) from 4.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 295-297 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday (2/4) north winds were 20-25 kts for Pt Arena northward early and north 15 kts for the Big Sur area, but less otherwise and forecast to hold that way. Wednesday (2/5) light north to maybe north-northeast winds are forecast all day for all of North and Central CA except at 20 kts for Pt Arena northward. Thursday (2/6) light north winds are forecast at 10 kts for all of North and Central CA but 15-20 kts for Pt Arena northward. Fri (2/7) more of the same is forecast with light north winds 5 kts all day for North and Central CA but with north winds 20 kt for Pt Arena northward and maybe to 15 kts for the Outer Monterey Bay area later. Sat (2/8) high pressure and north winds return at 20-25 kts for all of North CA early and 10 kts from Pt Reyes southward early pushing 35 kts for SF up to Pt Arena later and 15-20 kts for Central CA later. Sun (2/9) north winds are forecast at 30-35 kts for North and Central CA fading to 25 kts late afternoon but having complete coverage of all of North and Central CA. Perhaps a backdoor front is to produce some snow for the Central Sierra starting late afternoon moving to the mountains of Southern CA overnight. Mon AM (2/10) north to northeast winds to be 20-25 kts for all of North CA down to Monterey Bay but 5 kts from the northeast south of there to Pt Conception with west winds 20 kts for Southern CA early. North winds fading to 15-20 kts in the afternoon north of Pt Conception and turning northeast for Southern CA 10+ kts in the afternoon. Snow fading for the mountains of Southern CA Tues AM (2/11) north winds to be 30 kts for Cape Mendocino early but light north 5 kts from Pt Arena southward building to 35 kts for all of North CA but with 5 kt north winds for Central CA. Expect water temps to plummet due to upwelling. It sure seems like we're moving into a La Nina influenced Spring pattern.

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0 and 2 inches respectively.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing fetch is occurring.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours yet another broad but fragmented gale is forecast developing just west of the dateline Sun AM (2/9) with 45 kt south winds lifting northeast continuing into Sunday evening. A secondary core is to develop on the South Dateline region Mon AM (2/10) lifting north with 45 kt west winds quickly moving over the North Dateline region in the evening with fetch having little opportunity to get traction on the oceans surface. And maybe a third core to develop under that on Tues (2/11).

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Active MJO Possibly to Return

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water hold in a pool off Peru and has not changed as of late Jan 2020.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 is fading out, but not yet completely gone, especially in the atmosphere. Likewise it looks like a La Nina ocean temperature pattern is developing in the equatorial East Pacific, with cooler than normal waters tracking west on the equator. We assumed El Nino like momentum will hold for a while in the atmosphere will take a while to sense that the ocean temperature pattern has changed. But once it does, a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern will start to develop. that transition is expected in the late Nov-early Dec timeframe. Even so, moderation from the PDO might prevent La Nina from fully developing. Given all that, there is decent probability for a normal start to the Fall surf season (in the Northern Hemisphere) meaning a normal amount of number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in a normal levels of swell, with normal duration and normal period. But by mid-Dec 2019, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start fading and as a result, swell production should fade slightly as well. This pattern is expected to hold through April 2020.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (2/e) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the dateline and into the KWGA but weak west over the Southern KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific then weak westerly over the dateline and KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (2/4) a pocket of moderate west anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast calls for modest west anomalies holding in the KWGA through 2/5 then fading with weak east anomalies taking over on 2/8 through the end of the model run on 2/11.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (2/3) A weak Active MJO signal was filling the KWGA. The statistic model indicates the Active MJO is forecast holding while lowly tracking east to the dateline at day 10 of the model run then dissipated with a neutral MJO signal at day 15. The dynamic model indicates the Active MJO is to dissipate at day 5, then backbuild over the Maritime Continent at day 10 pushing east with a solid Active MJO taking over the KWGA at day 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (2/4) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was very weak over the Western Pacific today and is to steadily track east to the Indian Ocean over the next 15 days and very weak. The GEFS model suggests the same thing initially, but with the Active Phase quickly backtracking to the Maritime Continent at day 5 and building to moderate strength moving to the far West Pacific at day 10 at moderate strength building to strong status at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (2/4) This model depicts a weak Active Phase was over the Dateline region today. It is to push east and move over Central America on 2/28 while the Inactive Phase develops in the KWGA on 2/14 pushing east while slowly losing strength pushing into Central America on 3/13. A modest Active MJO signal is to start building in the West Pacific/KWGA 3/5 pushing to the Central Pacific at the end of the model run on 3/15.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/3) This model depicts a very weak Inactive signal over the KWGA today with modest west anomalies in control. The forecast indicates a weak Active Signal is to develop 2/6 in the KWGA with modest west anomalies building to moderate strength on 2/12 holding for a few days and filling the KWGA. The Active Phase is to be fading from there but still present at modest strength through the end of the model run on 3/2.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/4) This model depicts the Active Phase was fading in the KWGA with modest west anomalies still filling the KWGA with the Inactive Phase starting to develop in the Eastern KWGA. The forecast has a weak Inactive Phase developing and filling the KWGA 2/9 holding through 2/16 but with weak to moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA. A modest Active MJO Phase is to set up 2/17 with moderate west anomalies building into the KWGA holding till 3/7. Beyond that an exceedingly weak Inactive Phase is forecast developing 2/29-3/15 but with weak west anomalies holding. The Active Phase is to develop 3/17 building solid through the end of the model run on 5/3 with solid west anomalies in control in the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to the California coast. The second contour line is to hold for the foreseeable future, though weaker starting 4/3. A high pressure bias built in the Indian Ocean and is to hold for the foreseeable future. East anomalies set up in the Indian Ocean starting 10/22/19 and are to hold for the foreseeable future though less concentrated towards the end of the model run.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (2/4) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was pushing east to 176E while the 29 deg isotherm was steady at 172W. The 28 deg isotherm line had backtracked from 157W to 164W and was steady at 163W today. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing into Ecuador. Anomaly wise, Kelvin Wave #6 was under the dateline at +4 degs tracking from the Maritime Continent moving east with it's leading edge at 138W. Lesser warm water was pushing into Ecuador. Warm water was filling the entire equatorial subsurface Pacific from 110 meters upwards. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/28 indicates warm water had formed a Kelvin Wave extending from 135E peaking under the Dateline and holding east to 140W at +3 degrees with lesser warm water pushing east from there (impacting Ecuador). The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/28) A broad pocket of +5 cms anomalies is tracking east between 165E-110W and pockets east from there into Ecuador. .

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (2/3) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate warm anomalies were along the coast of Chile up into Peru, weak along Ecuador then building again over Central America then tracking west on the equator to the Galapagos out to 100W. A broad pocket of cool anomalies still was south of the equator and well off Peru filling the area from 5S south down to 20S reaching west to 115W and east to 82W. Weak warm anomalies were on and north of the equator building while tracking west to the dateline.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (2/3): Today a broad area of moderate warming continued filling the area from Chile and Peru west out to 115W but fading some in coverage. Warming also extended on the equator from Ecuador out to 120W. The short term trend is towards weak warming in the Southeast Pacific.
Hi-res Overview: (2/3) A steady pocket of cool anomalies is holding south of the equator starting at 5S and just off Peru reaching west out to 125W and steady compared to weeks past. Warm anomalies were holding along Chile and Peru stronger up to Ecuador and Central America up to Mexico. Otherwise gentle warming was over the equator from Ecuador out to 140W and stronger west of there. Warmer than normal water was north of the equator reaching north to 20N west to the dateline. Water temps appear to be stable mildly favoring El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/4) Today's temps were noodling around at +0.177 but previously much lower down at -0.900 on 12/12. Temps peaked prior at +1.55 degrees on 12/2 after a long runup from negative anomalies in October. It now appears we are in a falling trend.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(2/4) Temps were steady today at +0.315. Temps peaked on 11/14 at +0.509 degs, fell some to -0.018 on 11/28, and are now trying to rebuild. The trend has been steadily generally upwards since Sept when they bottomed out at -0.6 degs (9/14).

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (2/4) Actual's indicate a cooling trend set up late summer with temps -0.2 degs in mid-Sept then the trend started rising to +0.25 degs in early Oct holding to Dec 1 and then rising to +0.75 degs Jan 1 and to +0.9 degs on Feb 1. From there the forecast depicts a steady fall to 0.0 in mid-May then diving negative appearing to be moving to La Nina down at -1.40 in early Oct and stabilizing there. According to this model a neutral sea surface temperature pattern biased slightly warm is forecast for the Winter and Spring, then turning towards La Nina in the core of Summer.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Jan 2020 Plume depicts temps are at +0.42 degs, and are to slow fade to neutral +0.00 in June 2020, then holding there till Sept 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (2/4): The daily index was positive today at 3.65. The 30 day average was weakly negative at -0.40. The 90 day average was rising slightly at -4.66, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was developing.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): Dec +0.45, Nov +1.03, Oct +0.27 Sept +1.11, August +0.60, July +0.75, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.30, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

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External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (2/2):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lTTnUaHlBM&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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