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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, February 16, 2017 3:57 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.4 - California & 3.7 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 2/13 thru Sun 2/19

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Mult.cgie Local Gales for CA
Pattern Shifts to West Pacific Later

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Thursday, February 16, 2017 :

  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 8.4 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 6.0 ft @ 12.4 secs from 326 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 13.3 secs from 269 degrees. Wind northwest 6-8 kts. Water temperature 58.5 degs. At Ventura swell was 2.1 ft @ 12.6 secs from 268 degrees. At Santa Monica swell was 1.1 ft @ 18.9 secs from 217 degrees. At Camp Pendleton swell was 1.2 ft @ 18.5 secs from 211 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma swell was 2.0 ft @ 13.5 secs from 267 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 13.8 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 5.1 ft @ 17.2 secs from 284 degrees. Wind south 10-12 kts at the buoy. Water temp 55.6 degs.
    Notes

    46006, 46059, New! Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (at the bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (2/16) in North and Central CA a mixture of swell longer period swell traveling from Japan and the dateline a local windswell was producing waves in the 10+ ft range and a mess with no form or quality except at the most protected breaks. At Santa Cruz surf was head high and a warbled and chopped mess with no discernible form. In Southern California up north the leading edge of this swell was producing chest to shoulder high surf with clean conditions and decent form. In North Orange Co surf was chest high on the sets and clean but still having form issues with the bottom pretty much gone. In San Diego swell has not arrived yet with waves thigh high on the sets and clean. Hawaii's North Shore was getting solid leftovers from the Japan swell with waves 7-8 ft and clean but a bit warbled and unrefined. The South Shore was waist to chest high and clean and lined up. The East Shore was getting a mix of swells with waves chest high and heavily textured with light northeast winds.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (2/16) swell from a gale that tracked off Japan Fri-Sat (2/11) with 37 ft seas then moved over the dateline with seas fading from 35 ft before tracking northeast to the US West Coast Wed (2/15) with seas barely 20 ft was building in California and fading in Hawaii. On Fri (2/17) a local gale is to form off South CA with seas up to 26 ft. Another gale is to track northeast through the Gulf Sat (2/18) with seas to 32 ft moving into Oregon on Sun (2/19). Another gale is to briefly develop north of Hawaii Sun (2/19) with 27 ft seas falling southeast. To the west a small gale is forecast tracking northeast off Japan Mon (2/20) towards the North Dateline region with up to 40 ft seas, followed directly by another broader system taking a similar track Tues (2/21) also with seas to 40 ft. After that things settle down.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday AM (2/16) the jetstream was consolidated tracking flat east off Southern Japan and well south of normal with winds 170-180 kts pushing over the dateline reaching 100 nmiles off Monterey Bay. There was a weak trough off Japan but otherwise no direct indication of significant support for gale development other than solid wind speeds. Over the next 72 hours the trough off Japan is to move to the dateline but with jetstream winds fading to 150 kts but still holding some support for gale development. Also a new steep trough is to build just off California on Fri (2/17) being fed by 180 kt winds moving onshore over Baja later Saturday and offering good support for gale development. Back to the west the jet is to continue .cgiitting over the dateline. Beyond 72 hours the jet is to become less cohesive with the .cgiit more pronounced and moving into the Western Gulf on Mon (2/20) with the northern branch reaching north to the Eastern Aleutians then falling south into the Eastern Gulf at 110 kts forming a trough and offering weak support for gale development. Back to the west the jet is to start .cgiitting again just east of Japan with a trough forming off it's back end offering some support for gale development off the Aleutians into Wed (2/22). Beyond that the jet is to become a fragmented mess. Whatever support the Active Phase of the MJO was providing is to falter quickly.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (2/16) swell from a gale that traversed the North Pacific was starting to hit California and was fading in Hawaii (see Second Japan Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a string of gales are forecast developing, being fed by a strong jetstream pattern above it.

The first system is to develop just off Central CA on Fri AM (2/17) with pressure 992 mbs and northwest winds 40 kts starting to produce 25 ft seas at 32N 137W. A solid fetch of 40+ kt northwest winds to develop by Fri PM just off the Central and South CA coasts generating 26 ft seas at 33N 129W targeting Southern CA and Baja. The core of the gale is to move over the Channel Islands on Sat AM (2/18) with a broad fetch of 30-35 northerly winds just off the Central and Southern CA coasts producing 24 ft seas at 28N 124W targeting mainly Baja. The gale is to fade in the evening with 30 kt north winds and 20-24 ft seas impacting Central Baja and peaking at 32N 120W. Possible raw swell for Pt Conception southward to Cabo San Lucas.

North CA: For.cgianning purposes raw swell is to start arriving on Sat (2/18) pushing 13.5 ft @ 12-13 secs (16 ft). swell is to fade Sun AM (2/19) from 6.8 ft @ 12-13 secs (8.0 ft). Swell Direction: 290 degrees

Southern CA: For Planning purposes expect swell arrival expected Sat PM (2/18) under cover of darkness fading Sun AM (2/19) fading from 7.2 ft @ 13 secs (9.0 ft). Residuals fading Mon AM (2/20) from 3.4 ft @ 12-13 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 288 degrees

 

On Thurs PM (2/16) another small gale is to start building just east of the dateline producing a tiny area of 40 kt west winds and seas building. The gale is to be lifting northeast Fri AM (2/17) with winds 40-45 kts from the west with seas to 22 ft over a small area at 41N 161W. The gale is to continue east in the evening with winds 45 kts from the west targeting California and Oregon well with seas building to 30 ft at 42N 154W. On Sat AM (2/18) the gale is to continue east in the Gulf with a solid fetch of 45 kt west winds holding and seas 32 ft at 43N 148W. Fetch is to fade in the evening in the Central Gulf from 40 kts from the west with seas fading from 32 ft at 43N 142W. This system is to fade from there off the Oregon-CA border with winds dropping from 30 kts and seas fading from 26 ft at 43N 134W. A pulse of swell could result for California and Oregon up into Washington roughly Mon (2/20). Something to monitor.

 

Also by Sat AM (2/18) a low is to be building just east of the dateline generating 35 kt northwest winds targeting Hawaii well with seas building. In the evening the gale is to develop more with 40-45 kt northwest winds 900 nmiles north-northwest of Hawaii with seas building from 21 ft at 34N 155W. The gale is to fall southeast Sun AM (2/19) with winds 40-45 kts over a tiny area producing seas up to 27 ft at 33N 158W targeting Hawaii. In the evening fetch is to start tracking east if not northeast fading to 35 kts with seas fading from 21 ft at 32N 150W aimed east. On Mon AM (2/20) fetch to fade from barely 30 kts well off Southern CA with seas fading from 20 ft at 32N 139W. In the evening this system is to dissipate. Raw swell expected for Hawaii with windswell for Southern CA with luck.

Hawaii: For.cgianning purposes expect sideband swell arrival sunset Sun (2/19) pushing 9.0 ft @ 12 secs (10.5 ft). Swell continue Mon (2/20) at 8.1 ft @ 12-13 secs (10 ft). Swell Direction: 335 degrees

 

Second Japan Gale
A broader gale developed off Japan starting Fri AM (1/10) being fed by a strong jetstream flow aloft. This systems is to not be so much a swell producer as a primer for more activity that is likely behind driven by the first real Active Phase of the MJO all season. 45 kt west winds were over a tiny area with seas building from 27 ft at 37N 153E. In the evening 45 kt west winds were building in coverage while racing east mid-way to the dateline with 33 ft seas moving to 37N 160E. Sat AM (1/11) 40-45 kt west winds were pushing to nearly the dateline with 37 ft seas building back at 39N 168E. In the evening 40 kt west winds were over a broad area on the dateline with 35 ft seas building at 38N 175E. More of the same occurred Sun AM (1/12) with 40-45 kt west winds on the dateline and 35 ft seas over a solid area on the dateline at 37N 180W. Fetch continued in the evening at 40+ kts positioned northwest of Hawaii with 35 ft seas at 36N 174W aimed east. The gale was fading Mon AM (1/13) north of Hawaii with 40 kt west winds and 35 ft seas over a smaller area at 36N 168W targeting mainly Hawaii but also aimed at Central and Southern CA. In the evening fetch faded from 35 kts and became diffuse with 28 ft seas over a solid area at 36N 160W. By Tues PM (2/14) a front from remnants of this system were just off the California coast rebuilding from the southwest at 30-35 kts with 20 ft seas at 32N 150W and developing while lifting northeast. 35 kt southwest winds to be just off Central CA on Wed AM (2/15) with 20 ft seas in the same location (33N 143W) lifting northeast.

Hawaii: Residuals fading on Thurs (2/16) from 6.7 ft @ 13 secs (8.5 ft). Dribbles on Friday dissipating from 4.8 ft @ 12 secs (5.5 ft faces). Swell Direction: 310-315 degrees

North CA: A mixture of ground swell and locally generated raw windswell to start hitting the coast Thurs AM (2/16) with pure swell 7.0 ft @ 17 secs (12 ft) and windswell 9 ft @ 12-13 secs intermixed (10.5 ft). Residual mixed raw swell to be fading Fri (2/17) from 7.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (11 ft). Jumbled energy continue Sat (2/18) at 6 ft @ 7-14 secs (7 ft). Swell Direction: 285 with windswell from 270 degrees

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday (2/16) low pressure was moving into the North CA coast with southwest winds in control early from Pt Conception northward in the 15 kt range. There was rain early in the north and forecast to move to Santa Barbara at sunset. Theoretically up to 10 inches of snow for Tahoe during the day then dry overnight. Fri AM (2/17) south winds are to be building from San Diego to Monterey Bay pushing 30+ kts mid-day down into Southern CA turning southeast to east north of Monterey Bay. Rain building through the day focused on Southern CA and very heavy in Santa Barbara down to LA late afternoon and pretty solid down into San Diego. Moderate rain north of there. Snow developing near noon for Tahoe continuing to about 10 PM. 4-9 inches of accumulation possible. Saturday the meat of that gale is to move onshore with north winds 30 kts from Pt Arena southward to Pt Conception but calm winds for Southern CA early then building north in SCal to 25 kts. Rain fading for North and Central CA but continuing but getting spotty late afternoon for Southern CA. Light snow for Tahoe fading in the afternoon with 3 inches of accumulation. Sunday northwest winds fade from 20 kts from all of California with one gale moving into the Pacific Northwest and another gale winding up off Central CA. It is to impact North CA overnight. Light rain through the day mainly for North CA. Otherwise no rain until 10 PM, when moderate rain starts building for Central and North CA. Maybe snow showers for Tahoe. Monday AM (2/20) another low is to be moving into the coast with south winds 25-30 kts from Pt Conception northward and 10 kts into Southern CA. Moderate rain for all of North and Central CA with lighter rain for Southern CA. Snow expected for the Sierra starting before sunrise getting heavy later afternoon continuing heavy overnight. Tuesday (2/21) south winds to continue for all of North and Central CA at 20+ kts but light north in Southern CA. Moderate rain for North CA and lighter for Central CA after sunset and light down to LA. Snow fading early for the Sierra. Wednesday (2/22) another low is to be moving onshore over the North Coast with north west winds 20 kts north of Pt Conception with 15 kt northwest winds down into Southern CA. Rain early for the entire state. Heavy snow early for Tahoe slow fading through the day into early evening. Northwest winds continue Thursday (2/23) at 15-20 kts including Southern CA. High pressure building in with rain fading.

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis  
A storm developed in the Central South Pacific Tues AM (2/7) producing 55 kt west winds and seas building from 39 ft at 56S 157W. In the evening 50 kt west winds continued tracking east with 42 ft seas at 56S 148W. Most of this fetch was bypassing Hawaii to the east but sideband swell was targeting California, but really focused on Chile and Peru. On Wed AM (2/8) 45 kt west winds continued east with 40 ft seas at 56S 138W. In the evening 40 kt west winds continued east with 37 ft seas at 55S 130W. Thurs AM (2/9) 40 kt west-southwest fetch built in coverage with 34 ft seas at 53S 123W. Fetch continued east at 40 kts in the evening with 32 ft seas at 53S 121W starting to move out of the CA swell window. Fetch was fading Fri AM (2/10) from 35 kts from the southwest with 32 ft seas at 51S 111W and outside the SCal swell window. This system faded from there. A decent pulse of southern hemi swell is possible for Southern CA southward (and even into NCal) if this.cgiays out as forecast. But m
ost energy is to be aimed at Chile and Peru.

Southern CA: Swell continues on Thurs (2/16) pushing 1.8 ft @ 17-18 secs (3.0-3.5 ft with sets to 4.0 ft). Swell continues on Fri (2/17) at 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0 ft with sets to 4.0 ft). Swell fading Sat (2/18) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thus AM (2/16) building to 1.7 ft @ 18-19 secs (3.1 ft with sets to 4.0 ft). Swell continues Fri AM (2/17) at 1.7 ft @ 17-18 secs (3.0 ft with sets to 4.0 ft). Swell fading Sat AM (2/18) from 1.6 ft @ 16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees This swell to be buried in stronger northwest swell.

Otherwise no swell producing fetch of interest is occurring or forecast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours 2 more systems are to develop in the West Pacific:

A gale is forecast developing Sun PM (2/19) just west of the dateline lifting northeast fast producing 45-50 kt northwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 38N 173E targeting Hawaii. It is to be lifting northeast fast Mon AM (2/20) with winds building to 55 kts from the west with 38-40 ft seas building at 47N 175W targeting mainly the US West Coast. In the evening the core of the gale is to lift north into the Bering Sea with 45 kt west winds just south of the Aleutians with 37 ft seas at 49N 179E aimed at the US West Coast. By Tues AM (2/21) the gale is to be gone. Possible swell pushing east but well decayed upon arrival on the US West Coast. not much energy is to be targeting Hawaii.

A far broader storm is forecast developing just off Japan Mon PM (2/20) with 50 kt west winds and seas building from 32 ft at 38N 153E. On Tues AM (2/21) 45 kt west winds are to be racing northeast with seas building to 40 ft at 39N 163E. In the evening the gale is to vaporize while racing northeast with seas fading from 34 ft at 43N 173E. After that this system is to dissipate. Something to monitor.

 
South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

More details to follow...

 

Active MJO Fading Early

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equatorial Pacific it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slack if not an outright reversal of trade winds and enhanced precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the.cgianet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to .cgiit resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward di.cgiaced and generally weak. And by early 2017, it appears to be fading.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Wednesday (2/15) east winds were over the entire equatorial Pacific but weaker over the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. The KWGA is on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south. Anomalies were neutral over the equatorial East Pacific to the dateline then turned easterly over the KWGA. La Nina's remnants in the atmosphere have not given up yet, but it's life is now very limited.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): Weak east anomalies were modeled over the dateline and the Kelvin Wave generation area with weak west anomalies over the East Pacific. The forecast suggests weak east anomalies are to hold over the kelvin Wave Generation Area and build east over the next week. This suggests the Active Phase of the MJO is already gone and is to be moving east.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: As of 2/15 the Active Phase of the MJO was strong over the dateline region. The statistic model projects it fading while moving east and gone a week out while a strong Inactive Phase of the MJO builds over the West Pacific making it to the dateline 2 weeks out. The dynamic model depicts the same thing initially but with no Inactive Phase in the forecast. Instead the Active Phase stays on the dateline for the next 2 weeks.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (2/16) The ECMF model indicates the Active Phase of the MJO was very strong over the Atlantic and is to track east and loose strength and fade while moving into the Indian Ocean. The GEFS model depicts the same thing. This model runs about a week ahead of what occurs down at the surface.
40 day Upper Level Model: (2/16) This model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was moving into the Atlantic and effectively gone. A very strong Inactive Phase is over the dateline forecast tracking east into Central America 3/3. Another very strong Active Phase is to follow in the West Pacific 3/10 reaching west of the dateline 3/26. This model runs about 2 weeks ahead of what happens at the surface. Either way, the MJO is forecast to be strong and moving fast.
CFS Model - 3 month (850 mb wind): (2/16) This model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was over the dateline and is to track east through 2/24 with neutral anomalies over the KWGA. A moderate Inactive Phase is to follow 2/26-3/20 but with weak west anomalies holding in the West Pacific and east anomalies over the dateline. Beyond a weak Active Phase is to follow 3/25 with neutral wind anomalies in.cgiay. The MJO is forecast to start building in strength from here forward having more influence on wind anomalies in the KWGA as La Nina dies (gone per the low pass filter on 3/28 with El Nina taking hold 4/19).

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (2/16) Actual temperatures remain stratified with warm water in the West Pacific at 30+ degs C (reaching east to 163E) and the 28 deg isotherm line reaching to 176E and steep, suggesting a hard break between warm water in the west and cool water in the east at depth. 26 degs anomalies have grown in coverage reaching to the Galapagos now, making a major surge east in the past 3 days. Anomaly wise there's warm anomalies at +1-2 degs rule from the West Pacific but are no longer pushing east, retracting back west to 170W. Neutral anomalies are east of there to Ecuador except for one pocket of negative anomalies down 100m at 125W at -1.0 degs but not at the surface. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 2/7 depicts warm water is building east forming a nearly continuous path from the West Pacific to nearly Ecuador at +0.5-1.0 degs. La Nina has lost control of the ocean at depth with remaining negative anomalies weakening and getting shallower.
Sea Level Anomalies: (2/12) Negative anomalies at -5.0-10 cm's still control 2 pockets stranding the equator between 120W to 150W and 5 degs north and south. Sea levels are slowly rising with La Nina loosing it's grip at depth.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (2/15) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate warm water dominating the region extending from Southern Chile north to Ecuador then extending west over the Galapagos reaching beyond 160W. Only one pocket of cooler water was indicated in a pocket along Columbia. La Nina is gone and it looks like an El Nino like pattern is returning, though that seems unlikely.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (2/15): A warming trend is along immediate Peru in pockets extending from there to Ecuador and then west out over the Galapagos extending west to the dateline except one pocket of cooler water between 100-120W (but it is fading) and a small pocket along Columbia.
Hi-res Overview:
(2/153) There is no sign of La Nina cool waters from Ecuador west to at least 160W. Instead warmer than normal water is in.cgiay over that entire region. The only real remnants are from 160W-170E and even those appear to be in collapse and heading west. La Nina is dead and it's remnants are loosing coverage quickly. This is good news.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/16) Today's temps were steady at +0.088 or nearly neutral, but certainly not cool.  
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: Today (2/16) temps continued rising quickly at +0.627 degs. Temps have been oscillating warm to cool and back in 2-3 week cycles within a range from -0.0 to -0.5 degs but now are spiking warm and well outside the previous trend.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies



SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (2/16) This model indicates La Nina developed from June thru Oct in the -0.55 deg range then started fading with temps rising to neutral by Jan 1. La Nina is dead. The forecast has temps rising abruptly to +0.5 degs March 1 building to +0.8 degs in April slowly rising to +1.0 in July, then rising slightly to +1.5 degs into later Oct, suggesting a return of El Nino. La Nina is over and a return to at least normal temps is expected in Spring. The change in the atmosphere will be slower. But the El Nino outcome indicated by this model seems improbable.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-Feb Plume just updated today (2/16) and depicts temps are warming and are now at neutral 0.0 degs. A slow increase in temps is forecast thereafter to +0.5 degs in July holding into the Fall. This is +0.3 degs warmer than the January forecast and suggests La Nina is over and a warmer regime is setting up. See chart here - link. 

Atmospheric Deco.cgiing (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (2/16): The daily index was falling negative today at -40.11, the 3rd negative day after 14 days of positive readings. This negative reading is driven by low pressure over Tahiti. The 30 day average was falling to -1.48. The 90 day average was falling some at +2.09. All this suggests a near neutral pattern was taking hold.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive is good, negative bad): (2/16) Today's value was steady at -0.90. A peak low was reached on 11/2 at -1.94 the deepest it had been in this La Nina event. But that since backed off but has held in the -1.2 range since. Now even this indicator suggests La Nina is loosing it's grip. This measures atmospheric response, not oceanic. The atmosphere lags changes in the ocean driven by the ENSO cycle. The expectation is this index will continue rising.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO continues positive, though much weaker lately (as expected with La Nina setting in).
Per NOAAs index recent values (Jan-Dec) are: +0.21, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO.
The Washington EDU index (Jan-Dec) has not updated for Jan yet.
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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