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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: February 23, 2006 8:02 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
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Swell Potential Rating = 1.5 - California & 1.9 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 2/20 thru Sun 2/24
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Utility swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of Utility swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

NE Pacific To Stir
2 Systems Forecast - Hawaii Targeted

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Thursday (2/23) Northern CA surf was waist to chest high. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were waist high. Central California surf was waist high or less. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were flat with best break to maybe waist high. The LA Area southward to Orange County was flat but up to waist high at the best breaks. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were waist high with most flat. The North Shore of Oahu was waist high. The South Shore was up to waist high. The East Shore was head high.

Northeast windswell starting to produce some rideable surf on Hawaiian Northeast Shore, with much size on the charts for early next week if a gale forms off the Pacific Northwest as expected. Junky south windswell expected for California late this weekend into early next week with better northwesterly windswell later in the week if the models are accurate. In all, Hawaii to get the lions share of the swell. See details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Thursdays jetstream (2/23) continued in a massively split mode with no change expected. The split point now was just east of Japan at 145E with the southern branch tracking over Hawaii then heading east into Central Baja while the northern branch pushed northeast over the Aleutians, but was looking to start dipping south of Alaska into the Gulf of Alaska. There was no indication of any support for surface level storm development at the moment though. Over the next 72 hours through Sunday (2/26) the split in the jetstream is to remain very pronounced. Energy is to be evenly split between the north and south branches of the jet with pockets to 130 kts, but not well organized. The northern branch of the jet is to dip south into the Gulf of Alaska starting Friday (2/24) with a steep trough pushing south to 35N (well off Pt Conception by Sunday. Some support for surface level gale development suggested. That trough to quickly erode on Monday. Beyond 72 hours another trough to develop in the northern branch over the Northern Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday (2/28) dropping as far south as Northern Ca and then pushing inland there on Thursday (3/2), providing yet another opportunity for surface level gale development. Nothing too exciting, but at least not dead calm.

At the surface today high pressure at 1048 mbs was in control of the North Pacific centered over the intersection of the dateline and the Aleutians oozing southwest to nearly Japan and southeast to California. 2 weak low pressure system were underneath the high, one just east of the dateline driving 30-35 kts fetch towards Japan and a second northeast of Hawaii driving 25-30 kts fetch towards the Islands but fading. Windswell was being generated from both. No swell producing fetch aimed towards the mainland.

Over the next 72 hours the main swell producing feature will be low pressure forecast to develop off Washington on Saturday (2/25) Pressure to be 1004 mbs with a gradient forming between it and the strong high pressure system at 1044 mbs situated just east of the dateline. 45 kt winds to be aimed south towards Hawaii continuing through Sunday and imbedded in a much broader fetch of 30-35 kt north winds all aimed just a bit east of the Islands. 32-36 ft seas over a small area expected to result pushing south, bypassing the mainland by a good margin but on track for a Hawaiian destination by Tuesday with swell possibly to 9.4 ft @ 16 secs (13-15 ft faces) from 20 degrees. Best bet is those breaks that handle a pure north swell well. South winds to develop in association with this low pushing up into California Sunday through Tuesday (2/28) of next week driving short period junky windswell up into Central and North CA.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

California Offshore Forecast
On Thursday (2/23) the models continue to indicate high pressure in control through Saturday (2/25), then a big change sets up with strong south winds and rain the norm for North and Central California and pushing south into South CA by Monday (2/27). Clearing expected over the south half of the state by Wednesday (3/1) but inclimate weather to persist in the north through the workweek. Certainly a change from the bulletproof blue skies of late.

The detailed 5 Day wind forecast is now included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.

 

South Pacific

Overview
No swell producing fetch forecast over the next 72 hours.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Tuesday (2/28) a small 984 mb low is to develop in the northern most Gulf of Alaska tracking southeast towards British Columbia. It is to again form a gradient as it interacts with strong high pressure at 1032 mb to it's west, resulting in 40-45 kt northwest winds and 25 ft seas pushing towards California Tuesday, fading to 30 kts Wednesday well off the California coast.

No other swell producing sources suggested with high pressure remaining in control of the North Pacific.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

Details to follow...


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El Nino Forecast Updated: The Stormsurf El Nino forecast was updated on 12/30/05. Check out all the latest details concerning El Nino and it's impact on the winter surf season. Details here

Tutorial on the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) Presented by Dr. Roland Madden: If you're interested in El Nino and the MJO, have a basic understanding of El Nino, and you have broadband connection, audio and Macromedia Flash installed, then the following presentation is a must see. Dr Madden present a great overview of how the MJO works. And there's nothing like hearing it straight from the founders mouth. Link here: http://meted.ucar.edu/climate/mjo/mjonav0.htm

Read all the latest news and happenings on our News Page here

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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