Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 13.6 secs from 286 degrees. Water temp 75.9 (Barbers Pt), 75.7 (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 9.1 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 5.9 ft @ 10.1 secs from 31 degrees. Water temp 74.8 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 6.7 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 4.3 ft @ 9.9 secs from 67 degrees. Water temp 75.0 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 13.5 secs from 266 degrees. Wind east at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 59.7 degs, 58.3 (Harvest 071), 59.0 (Topanga 103), 59.0 (Long Beach 215), 59.7 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 59.7 (Del Mar 153), 60.1 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.7 ft @ 15.8 secs from 303 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.4 ft @ 16.6 secs from 299 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.7 ft @ 11.7 secs from 244 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.0 ft @ 17.7 secs from 215 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.8 ft @ 17.4 secs from 264 degrees. Water temperature was 59.5 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.1 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 3.4 ft @ 16.0 secs from 304 degrees. Wind southwest at 6-8 kts (46013) and NNE 6 kts (1801589). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 56.7 degs (Pt Reyes 029), NA (San Francisco 46026), 56.5 (SF Bar 142), 56.1 (1801589) and 58.6 (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Monday (2/26) in North and Central CA waves were up to head high and somewhat lined up and clean with light wind but a bit closed out. Protected breaks were up to chest high and lined up with decent form and clean with no wind but tending towards being closed out. At Santa Cruz surf was chest high and lined up and clean but soft and inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura waves were knee to maybe thigh high and lined up with good form and clean. Central Orange County had waves at up to chest high and lined up and clean with decent form but soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at waist to sometimes chest high and lined up and clean with decent form but soft. North San Diego had waves at waist to sometimes near chest high and lined up with decent form and clean conditions but soft. Oahu's North Shore had waves at up to head high and lined up and clean with decent form but a little uneven. The South Shore was thigh high on the sets and soft and slightly textured from east trades. The East Shore was getting east wind swell at head high to 1 ft overhead and chopped from solid easterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Monday (2/26) California was getting residual swell from a short lived gale that formed off Kamchatka on Tues-Wed (2/21) producing 35 ft seas aimed east. Hawaii was getting even less energy from it mixed with sideband windswell from a small gale that developed mid-way from Hawaii to CA producing 22 ft seas aimed back at Hawaii on Sat-Sun (2/25). Then things quickly settle down with maybe a gale in the Northern Gulf Tues-Thurs (2/29) producing 26-28 ft seas aimed southeast. And maybe something to develop just east of Japan lifting off the Kuril Islands Tues-Thurs (2/29) with 35 ft seas aimed east. It looks like a change towards Spring is developing.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Monday (2/26) the jet was split from just off Japan over the width of the North Pacific with northern branch pushing east off North Japan tracking east just south of the Aleutians with winds 120 kts then down the Canadian Coast and inland over Oregon with no trough indicated offering no support for gale formation. The southern branch was tracking east on the 25N latitude line eventually pushing over Central and Southern CA offering nothing. Over the next 72 hours starting Tues (2/27) the jet is to consolidate over Japan forming a trough just east of there then splitting and continuing split the whole way across the North Pacific with the northern branch just over the Aleutians. But a second trough is forecast building in the Northwestern Gulf on Tues (2/27) falling southeast and filling the Gulf being fed by 150 kts winds offering good support for gale development while tracking southeast. And the trough forecast off Japan on is to be fed by 130 kt winds lifting northeast offering support for gale development into Fri (3/1) off the Kuril Islands. Beyond 72 hours the Gulf trough is to move inland over California on Sat (3/2) producing mainly weather there. And back to the west the split jet pattern is to dominate with 140 kts winds tracking just south of the Aleutians and weakening into Mon (3/4) with the split point moving east to the dateline. At that time no meaningful troughs are forecast. From an upper level perspective we're on a downward trend.

Surface Analysis
On Monday (2/26) swell was fading in California and Hawaii from a gale previously off Kamchatka (see Kamchatka Gale below). And swell was starting to show in Hawaii from a small low pressure system that developed off California targeting Hawaii (see California Low Pressure System below).

Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast developing in the Northwestern Gulf Tues AM (2/27) producing northwest winds at 35-40 kts with seas building from 23 ft at 53N 153W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds build in coverage at 30-35 kts with seas 24 ft at 52.5N 145W. On Wed AM (2/28) northwest winds build to 35-45 kts and seas 23 ft at 50N 150W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds hold at 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft at 50N 149W aimed southeast. More of the same Thurs AM (2/29) with northwest winds 35-40 kts in the Northern Gulf and seas 27 ft at 47N 142W aimed southeast. The gale to be fading in the evening while approaching California with northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 24 ft over a solid area at 42.5N 141W aimed southeast. The gale is to be fading in the Gulf Fri AM (3/1) just off North CA with northwest winds 35+ kts and seas 27 ft at 40.75N 139.75W aimed southeast. In the evening fetch is to be just off Cape Mendocino at 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft at 39N 131.25W aimed southeast. The gael to dissipate from there while moving onshore. Something to monitor.

And a gale is forecast developing just east of Japan on Mon PM (2/26) producing northwest winds at 50 kts and seas building from 30 ft at 36N 151.5E aimed east. On Tues AM (2/27) the gale is to lift north producing 50 kt north winds and seas building from 34 ft over a small area at 40.75N 150.75E aimed southeast. In the evening north winds to still be 50 kts with seas 35 ft over a building area at 38.25N 151.25E aimed southeast. On Wed AM (2/28) fetch is to hold at 45 kts from the northwest with seas 35 ft at 36.25N 153.5E aimed southeast. Fetch is to be fading from 40-45 kts in the evening still off Japan with seas 32 ft at 37.25N 157E aimed east. On Thurs AM (2/29) fetch is to be lifting northeast at 35-40 kts with seas 31 ft at 38N 161.25E and off North Japan aimed east and southeast . Fetch and seas fading from there. Something to monitor.

Kamchatka Gale
On Tues AM (2/20) a small gale developed over the North Kuril Islands producing northwest winds at 35 kts with seas building. In the evening west winds built to 45 kts and seas 25 ft at 48N 162E aimed east. On Wed AM (2/21) west winds held at 45 kts over a solid area aimed east with seas 33 ft at 51N 170.25E aimed east. Fetch barely held in the evening with seas building to 39 ft at 51.75N 173.5E aimed east. The gael dissipated from there. Maybe some small long period swell to reach Hawaii but peak seas were shadowed by the Central Aleutians relative to California.

Oahu: Residuals on Mon (2/26) fading from 2.4 ft @ 13-14 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 330 degrees

North CA: Swell holding on Mon (2/26) at 3.8 ft @ 15 secs (5.5 ft) and very inconsistent. Swell Direction: 308 degrees

California Low Pressure System
Residuals of a Small Gulf Gale reorganized weakly 1000 nmiles west of Pt Conception Fri PM (2/23) producing 35-40 kt northeast winds and seas 19 ft at 35N 135W aimed somewhat at Hawaii. On Sat AM (2/24) northeast winds were 30-35 kts over a decent sized area with seas 20 ft at 34N 139.75W aimed back at Hawaii. In the evening 30-35 kt northeast winds to continue while falling southwest towards Hawaii with seas 22 ft at 29.75N 139.50W aimed southwest at Hawaii. Fetch is to be fading from 25 kts Sun AM (2/25) with seas fading from 20 ft at 26N 138.5W aimed southwest again at Hawaii. Fetch and seas gone after that. Perhaps small northeast windswell to push towards Oahu arriving at sunset Mon (2/26). Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Mon (2/26) building to 5.0 ft @ 12-13 secs late (6.0 ft). Swell fading some on Tues (2/27) from 4.6 ft @ 11 secs early (5.0 ft). Residuals on Wed (2/28) fading from 4.0 ft @ 8-9 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 50 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Tues AM (2/27) northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast holding at 20-25 kts for North CA and northwest 15-20 kts for Central CA. Light rain for Central and Southern CA early. Scattered showers for Southern CA early.
Wed AM (2/28) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North CA and northwest 10-15 kts for Central CA. A front approaches in the afternoon with southwest winds 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino and southwest 5-10 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest winds 10 kts for Central CA. Rain for North and Central CA in the afternoon and evening. Rain developing for Cape Mendocino in the evening. .
Thurs AM (2/29) a front is to be pushing down the North CA coast with southwest winds forecast at 25 kts for North CA and west at 5-10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon a front is to be impacting North CA with southwest winds 15-20 kts for North CA and southwest at 15 kts down to Morro Bay. Rain for North CA early moving south to Morro bay in the afternoon. Heavy snow for Tahoe in the afternoon building south down the Sierra overnight.
Fri AM (3/1) southwest winds are to be 20 kts for North CA and southwest 15 kts down to Monterey Bay and southwest 10 kts for the rest of Central CA. In the afternoon low pressure moves up to North CA with southwest winds 25+ kts for North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA and 15 kts to Pt Conception. Rain for North and Central CA holding through the day reaching into Southern Ca overnight. Heavy snow for the Sierra building in the afternoon and dangerous in the evening.
Sat AM (3/2) the low moves onshore over the OR-CA border with southwest winds 15-20 kts for North CA and southwest 15 kts for Central CA and west winds 15 kts for Southern CA early. In the afternoon high pressure and northwest winds start building at 25 kts for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA and west winds 15-20 kts for Southern CA. Rain for all of California holding through the day. Heavy snow for the Sierra early moderating during the day and evening.
Sun AM (3/3) northwest winds fade from 10 kts for North CA early and 15 kts for Central CA and northwest 20 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA and northwest 20 kts for Southern CA. Scattered showers for North CA early clearing during the day. Modest snow for the Sierra early fading through the morning.
Mon AM (3/4) northwest winds are to be 5-10 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds are to be 5 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 121, 129, 111, and 68 inches with most 3/1-3/3.

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Levels are 6,500 ft today more of less holding through 2/28 then down to 5,500 ft on 2/29 and then 5,000 ft 3/1 falling to 3,500 ft 3/2 and beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest coming from the Southern Hemisphere was hitting Hawaii or California.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast. Swell from a gale previously southeast of New Zealand is tracking northeast (see New Zealand Gale below).

New Zealand Gale
A gale developed southeast of New Zealand on Thurs AM (2/22) producing southwest winds at 40 kts and seas building from 27 ft at 60.5S 172.75E aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 40 kts lifting northeast with seas to 31 ft at 58.5S 179W aimed northeast. The gale lifted northeast Fri AM (2/23) with 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas 30 ft at 54.25S 170.25W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading in the evening from 30-35 kts and seas fading from 29 ft at 50.25S 158.25W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Fri (3/1) building to 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sat (3/2) from 1.6 ft @ 15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading from 1.3 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 192 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (3/3) building to 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell holding at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 202 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a solid gale is forecast moving northeast into the Tasman Sea from under Tasmania Sun-Mon (3/4) producing up to 39 ft seas aImed northeast. Possible swell for Fiji and Hawaii with luck.

El Nino Collapsing
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Starting to Fade
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador. The warm pool created by them is now dissipating fast off Ecuador. But the atmosphere is still in El Nino and will continue from previous momentum through slowly fading. Cold water is getting poised to start erupting off Ecuador in a few weeks which will hasten the demise of El Nino.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (2/25) 5 day average winds were strong east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over East equatorial Pacific and weak east over the Central Pacific and weak east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (2/26) East anomalies are moderate over the KWGA today. The forecast indicates moderate east anomalies holding if not building some and filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 3/13. West anomalies are to start building weakly limited to the dateline 3/6 and beyond.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (2/25) A neutral MJO filling the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates a neutral MJO holding unchanged through day 5 of the model run then with a weak Active Phase (cloudy skies) moving into the KWGA the last day of the model run (day 15). The dynamic model depicts the same thing initially but with an Inactive MJO (dry air) developing on day 5 filling the KWGA on days 10 and 15 at near strong status.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (2/26) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was very weak over then Central Indian Ocean today. The forecast indicates it is to hold unchanged 15 days out. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase tracking east to the Central Maritime Continent at moderate strength 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (2/26) A weak Active MJO pattern was over the KWGA today. The Active MJO is to ease east and beyond the KWGA on 3/17 while a second Active Phase builds over the KWGA 3/22 and easing east but still filling the KWGA through the last day of the model run on 4/6.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/25) Today no MJO signal was detected in the KWGA with east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates east anomalies holding solid through 3/18 then fading some but still present through the end of the model run on 3/24.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/26) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO and east anomalies were building over the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is forecast to control the KWGA through 4/29 with mostly weak east anomalies blowing. The Active Phase is to follow 3/23 through 5/3 with modest west anomalies in control. The Inactive Phase to follow 4/28 through the end of the model run on 5/25 but with weak west anomalies in control. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 165W with a third contour line fading on 3/17 and a second contour line fading on 4/28. The final contour is to hold through the end of the model run. The high pressure bias was over the Maritime Continent 10/2-1/21 faded but returned weakly 2/13 and is to hold through 2/26. It appears a strong El Nino is still in control and is to move east over the next 3 months while dissipating.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (2/26) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was stationary at 170E. The 29 degree isotherm was stationary at 177W. The 28 deg isotherm line was stationary at 160W. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was getting shallower in the east at 24m deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C are moving east (or at least shrinking in coverage) fast under the East Pacific starting at 130W (previously 135W). +3 deg anomalies start at 118W (previously 126W, 143W and 172W) and are shrinking in coverage while getting squeezed to the surface by cold water underneath, reaching up to 37m. The warm pool in the east is discharging fast to the surface with no backfilling occurring. There's maybe 2 weeks of warm water left. Colder water extends east now under the entire Pacific to Ecuador undercutting the warm pool preventing the formation of any new Kelvin Waves. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 2/22 indicates 3 deg anomalies from Kevin Wave #8 start at 90W erupting to the surface and covering east into Ecuador. Cool water was building deep in the far West Pacific down 150m reaching east to 85W and lifting up to 10 meters at 120W poised to erupt to the surface. The end is very near for El Nino. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (2/22) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at 0 to -5 cms over the entire area and down to -10 cms at 110W but +5 cms along the immediate coast of Ecuador. The El Nino fueled warm pool is discharge quickly. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (2/22) warm water is racing east with +0.5 degs anomalies starting at 90W into Ecuador with +1.0 deg anomalies limited to 82W to Ecuador and moving east. Cool water was moving east filling most of the equatorial Pacific reaching to 100W. Basically colder water was taking control. El Nino is collapsing with cooler water developing over the West Pacific and now moving into the East Pacific. This signals a turn to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (2/25) The latest images depict a moderate warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to 140W and steadily losing density with many cooler (but not cold) pockets interspersed. Heat also extends north up to Southern Baja and south down into North Chile. There is still a clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place but it is steadily losing density and intensity.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (2/25): A solid warming pocket was present from the Galapagos west to 105W. Weak cooling was developing on the equator from Ecuador to the Galapagos then between 105W to 125W. A warming trend that has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 is collapsing.
Hi-res Overview: (2/25) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but slowly losing it's density on the equator west to the dateline. Everything still looks like El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/26) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are steady at +0.974 after peaking at +1.197 on 2/13 as the last of warm subsurface water gets squeezed upwards. Temps were up from +0.502 on 2/4 and had been toggling in the +0.6 degs range since 12/30, previously up into the +2.0 range in early Nov. .
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/26) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling slightly at +1.127 and have been +1.2 degs or higher since 1/3. Temps had been in the +1.5 range since 11/19-1/12. Weekly OISST are at +1.5 (weeks of 2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 degs ( week of 2/7), +1.8 degs (week of 1/31). +1.7 (week of 1/24) and 1/17 up at +1.9 degs 1/10 and 1/3. and up at +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 degs (11/29) and +2.1 (week of 11/22 - the highest so far), then +1.9 the week before and +1.8 degs (previous 2 weeks). Monthly Data is +1.72 Oct, 2.02 Nov, 2.02 Dec and +1.87 for Jan. The 3 month ONI is +2.0 ft the 3 month period Nov-Dec-Jan or bare minimal Super El Nino status.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps started slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan and +1.65 in Feb.
Forecast (2/25) - Temps are to fall to +1.5 degs in mid-Feb. Temps are to be falling to +1.0 mid-March and steadily falling from there down to +0.5 degs in April and -2.1 degs in Nov 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to -1.55 degs in Nov and leveling off there. According to this version of the model we are past the peak of a strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The February 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.154 degs today and its the 10th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to +0.749 in March (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there down to -0.990 in Oct. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.988 in Oct and the Statistic down to -0.992.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (2/26) the Daily Index was positive at +6.63 today. It turned positive after a 28 day negative run on 2/19 peaking at -46.54 on 2/9. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was rising at -18.16, Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was steady at -5.20. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since and the most negative in 2021-2023 since 2011, driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions. There's some sign of it rising in Nov/Dec 2023, but only slightly. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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