BUOY ROUNDUP
Sunday, March 31, 2024 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (3/31) in North and Central CA waves were 2 ft overhead and lined up and clean with calm wind but pretty soft and with not good form. Protected breaks were 1 ft overhead and lined up if not closed out and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was chest to head high and lined up with decent form and clean but very soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to maybe chest high on the sets and lined up with good form but very warbled and mushed from strong south winds and brown water. Central Orange County had waves at 2-3 ft overhead and and lined up but with poor form and pretty warbled from brisk south wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at thigh to waist high and soft and weak and clean and getting pummeled by hard rain. North San Diego had waves at chest high and mushed and junky from brisk south wind. Oahu's North Shore had waves at maybe waist high and lined up and clean but pretty closed out at top breaks. The South Shore was up to waist high on the sets and slightly lined up with decent form and clean. The East Shore was getting east tradewind windswell at waist high and chopped from modest easterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (3/31) California was getting swell from a gale that developed off South Oregon Tues-Thurs (3/28) with 26 ft seas aimed southeast with secondary energy developing as the gale moved south down the California coast Fri-Sat (3/30) with 18-20 ft seas aimed southeast. A gale is forecast developing off the Kuril Islands tracking northeast fast Mon-Tues (4/2) with up to 46 ft seas forecast before it impacts the Western Aleutians. Low odds for sideband swell resulting. And maybe a small gale to develop while tracking east over the North Dateline Region to the Western Gulf Fri-Sun(4/7) with 34-36 ft seas aimed east. But in general a pretty quiet pattern is forecast for the North Pacific. Down south a gale is forecast in the deep Southeast Pacific Wed-Thurs (4/4) with 37 ft seas aimed decently northeast. And a smaller one to follow in its path Fri-Sat (4/6) with 32 ft seas aimed northeast. And possibly more behind that. A seasonal transition appears to be underway.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (3/31) the jet was weakly consolidated from Japan half way to the dateline with winds to 170 kts in one small pocket then splitting east of there at 170E with a weak trough embedded in the northern branch of the jet just south of the Eastern Aleutians and a backdoor trough just off Southern CA. None of these were particularly supportive of gale development. Over the next 72 hours the wind pocket off the Kurils is to develop into a trough lifting northeast Mon-Wed (4/3) being fed by 150-160 kts winds supportive of gale formation. Beyond 72 hours starting Wed (4/3) the jet is to start heavily splitting with the split point south of Japan and the influential northern branch running northeast from Japan to the Central Aleutians with winds 150 kts into Sat (4/6) offering no support for gale development. But on Sun (4/7) a weak trough is forecast developing over the North Dateline region perhaps offering some hope. And a backdoor trough is forecast forming off Oregon on Sat (4/6) falling southeast into Sun (4/7) perhaps offering some more weather for North and Central CA. The Inactive Phase of the MJO is doing exactly what it was expected to do, namely stealing energy from the jet.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (3/31) windswell from a local gale off California was hitting the coast (see California Local Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Mon AM (4/1) a gale is forecast developing off Japan with 45 kt southwest winds and seas building. In the afternoon the gale is to build to storm status while lifting northeast with west winds 55 kts and seas 37 ft at 45.75N 164.25E aimed east. On Tues AM (4/2) the gael is to be just south of the Western Aleutians with west winds 55 kts and seas 45 ft at 51N 170E aimed east and poised to start impacting the Aleutians. In the evening the gale is to move into the Bering Sea with 32 ft seas fading south of the Aleutians at 52N 175E aimed east. Something to monitor with maybe some sideband swell radiating east towards mostly the US mainland.

California Local Gale
And a small gale developed in the Gulf Tues AM (3/26) with 25-30 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas building. In the evening northwest winds were 30-40 kts off the Pacific Northwest with seas building from 20 ft at 45.5N 141W aimed east. On Wed AM (3/27) the gale was organizing off Oregon with 35 kt northwest winds and seas 24 ft at 46.25N 136.25W aimed east. The gale weakened some in the afternoon off the OR-CA border with northwest winds 35 kts and seas 23 ft at 44.5N 134W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (3/28) the gale was fading some off Oregon with 30 kt northwest winds off the coast there and seas 21 ft at 43N 131.5W aimed southeast with additional energy moving in from the west. In the evening secondary fetch was building well off North CA from the northwest at 30 kts while falling southeast. On Fri AM (3/29) northwest fetch was falling southeast at 35-40 kts with seas building to 18 ft at 37N 132W off Central CA targeting Central and Southern CA. The gale built in the evening stalled off San Francisco with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas to 22 ft at 36.5N 127.5W targeting Southern CA and Baja well. On Sat AM (3/30) fetch held positioned off Central CA at 30-35 kts from the northwest with seas 20 ft at 35N 126W targeting the same area. The gale was fading in the evening with 25-30 kt north winds and seas 19 ft at 33N 126W aimed southeast. Raw proto-swell expected for the California.

North CA: Swell fading on Sun (3/31) from 5.5 ft @ 11 secs (6.0 ft). Dribbles forecast Mon (4/1) fading from 5.0 ft @ 10 secs (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 300-305 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell fading Sun (3/31) from 4.0 ft @ 12-13 secs (4.0-5.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (4/1) from 2.5 ft @ 11 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 270 moving to 295 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 30, 30, 30 and 7 inches with small steady accumulation 4/4 through 4/7.

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Levels building fast from 6,000 ft today to 11,000 on 4/1-2. then falling 4/3 down to 3,500 ft 4/4 holding into 4/7 before starting to rise again to 10,000 ft on 4/9. Highly changeable conditions forecast.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
Swell from a gale that developed under New Zealand is hitting California but buried in locally generated windswell (see New Zealand Gale below). And small swell was also hitting California from a gale that formed on the eastern edge of the CA swell window (see Southeast Pacific Gale below) but also buried.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

Weak New Zealand Gale
A gale developed under New Zealand while falling southeast on Wed PM (3/20) producing west winds at 40 kts with seas building to 32 ft at 60.75S 172.75E. On Thurs AM (3/21) west winds were 35 kts aimed east with seas 28 ft at 62.75S 178.25W aimed east. Fetch fading while falling southeast in the evening with southwest winds 35 kts and seas 26 ft at 63.25S 157.5W aimed east. Fetch dissipating from there. No swell expected to result for Hawaii.

Southern CA:Swell peaking on Mon (4/1) at 1.3 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (4/2) from 1.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5 ft). Residuals on Wed (4/3) fading from 1.2 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 199 degrees

Southeast Pacific Gale
On Fri AM (3/22) a gale developed in the upper reaches of the far Southeast Pacific producing south winds at 35 kts and seas building near 40S 122W aimed north. in the evening south winds were 45+ kts aimed north with seas 30 ft at 39.25S 133.75W. on Sat AM (3/23) south fetch was fading from 35 kts with seas fading from 25 ft at 36S 113W aimed northeast. Small sideband swell possible for Southern CA with most energy focused on Peru and Central America.

Southern CA: Swell peaking Sun AM (3/31) at 1.6 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (4/1) from 1.5 ft @ 12-13 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 175-180 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing while approaching the the North Dateline region from the southwest on Fri AM 94/5) with 40 kt west winds and seas building from 21 ft at 44N 170.75E aimed east. In the evening west winds to build to 50 kts just south of the Central Aleutians with seas 30 ft at 49.5N 175.5E aimed east. On Sat AM (4/6) west winds to fade from 40 kts while tracking east into the far Western Gulf with seas 35 ft at 50.75N 175.75W aimed east.In the afternoon the gael is to move into the Northwestern Gulf with 35-40 kts west winds and seas 29 ft at 49.75N 166.25W aimed east. On Sun AM (4/7) fetch is to be fading from 30 kts in the Northern Gulf with seas fading 23 ft at 49.5N 157.75W aimed east. The gael is to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a storm is forecast developing in the deep Central South Pacific on Wed AM (4/3) with 50-55 kt southwest winds and seas building from 30 ft at 64.5S 161.5W aimed northeast. In the afternoon a broad fetch of 45 kts southwest winds to be lifting east-northeast over the Southeast Pacific with seas 34 ft at 62.75S 146.5W aimed east-northeast. Fetch fading Thurs AM (4/4) from 40-45 kts while lifting northeast over far Southeast Pacific with seas fading from 34 ft at 58.25S 137W aimed northeast. The gael is to dissipate in the evening with south winds 35 kts and seas fading 29 ft at 54S 126.5W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Perhaps another gale is to push under New Zealand on Sat-Sun (4/7) producing 33 ft sea aimed due east.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

La Nina Arrives
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Starting to Fade
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But now cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (3/30) 5 day average winds were strong east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over East equatorial Pacific and neutral to light west over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (3/31) East anomalies were at moderate status filling the KWGA today with weak west anomalies south of California over the East Equatorial Pacific. The forecast indicates moderate east anomalies filling the KWGA through 4/7 with weak west anomalies starting to build over the KWGA from the west on then and filling the KWGA and moderate strength at the end of the model run on 4/16.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (3/31) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm is gone. The 29 degree isotherm was racing west from 177W to 176E. The 28 deg isotherm line was 5 meters deep from 103W to 160W then deeper west of there and mostly just waters warmed by sunlight and being pushed west by trade winds. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was shallow but stable in the east at 20m deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were losing coverage and +1 to +2 degs while getting compressed to the surface fast under the East Pacific at 28m deep from Ecuador west then deeper from the dateline west. El Nino is gone subsurface. A large pool of cold anomalies at -6 degs were down at 120m deep at 155W reaching east and weaker to a point along Ecuador at -1 degs and filling the entire Equatorial Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/24 indicates cold water in control from Ecuador west to 125W at the surface and at dept to 160E. The remnant warm surface water from El Nino was getting pushed west by trades starting at 120W and points west of there. Cold water was filling the entire equatorial Pacific thermocline below it. La Nina is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/24) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms over the entire area and -10 cms from the Galapagos to 125W and building in density. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (3/24) cold water was filling the Equatorial Pacific and -0.5 to -1.5 degs east of 140W. El Nino is gone from the subsurface perspective and now clearly turning to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (3/30) The latest images depict a moderate warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to 160W but steadily losing density with 1 cool pocket along the coast of Peru building off Ecuador. There is still an El Nino signal present but now the beginnings of a cold La Nina signal are starting to emerge from the depths up to the oceans surface.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (3/30): A solid cooling pocket was off Ecuador reaching to the Galapagos. Warming was on the equator from 90W out to the dateline. A warming trend that has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 and is barely hanging on.
Hi-res Overview: (3/30) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline with a cool pocket along the coast of Ecuador. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but slowly losing it's density on the equator west to the dateline. Everything still looks like El Nino but the beginnings of La Nina are developing at the surface.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/31) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling at -0.519 and have been below 0 since 3/19. Temps previously were up at +1.024 degs on 3/12 and that was fading from +1.161 after peaking at +1.197 on 2/13 as the last of warm subsurface water got squeezed upwards. Temps were up from +0.502 on 2/4 and had been toggling in the +0.6 degs range since 12/30, previously up into the +2.0 range in early Nov. .
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/31) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at +1.169 today from +1.171 3/23 after dipping some the previous 5 days. Temps had been at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12. Weekly OISST are +1.3 (week of 3/20) up from +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1). Monthly Data is +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.56 Feb. The 3 month ONI is +1.8 for the 3 month period DJF and +2.0 ft for NDJ (bare minimal Super El Nino status). All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan and +1.65 in Feb.
Forecast (3/31) - Temps to fall to +0.5 degs mid-April, -0.5 late May and -2.4 degs in Nov/Dec 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to only -1.70degs. According to this version of the model we are past the peak of a strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The March 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +0.760 degs today and its the 11th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to +0.326 in April (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there down to -1.011 in Sept and holding there. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -1.097 in Sept and the Statistic down to -1.021 in Oct.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (3/31) the Daily Index was negative at -13.45 today. The daily SOI turned mostly positive on 2/20 after a 28 day negative peaking down at -46.54 on 2/9. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was falling some at -0.38, Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was falling some at -3.74. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/19 and hard negative in 10/21-10/23 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/23-2/24 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table