Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 10.2 secs from 196 degrees. Water temp 75.6 (Barbers Pt), 75.2 (Pearl Harbor 233), 76.8 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 12.8 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 11.1 ft @ 9.9 secs from 66 degrees. Water temp 75.2 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 7.5 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 5.4 ft @ 10.0 secs from 27 degrees. Water temp 75.4 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.9 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 3.8 ft @ 6.4 secs from 265 degrees. Wind northwest at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 55.6 degs, 53.1 (Harvest 071), 56.7 (Topanga 103), 56.5 (Long Beach 215), 57.6 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 58.5 (Del Mar 153), 59.4 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 6.3 ft @ 10.4 secs from 307 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 3.6 ft @ 10.2 secs from 270 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 4.1 ft @ 7.9 secs from 271 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 4.0 ft @ 7.8 secs from 275 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.8 ft @ 12.5 secs from 277 degrees. Water temperature was 58.1 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 7.2 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 5.4 ft @ 9.3 secs from 309 degrees. Wind northwest at 10-14 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NNW at 11-12 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801589) and NE at 4 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 52.3 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 52.9 (San Francisco 46026), 54.9 (SF Bar 142), 53.4 (1801589) and 54.5 (Monterey Bay 46092).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (4/6) in North and Central CA waves were chest high and warbled and mushed with small whitecaps coming from the northwest. Protected breaks were waist to chest high and warbled with poor form and soft but not chopped early. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to maybe chest high on the sets and weakly lined up with decent form and very soft but fairly clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to barely chest high on the sets and weakly lined up and soft but fairly clean. Central Orange County had waves at chest to nearly head high on the sets and pretty lined up with decent form but somewhat warbled and soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were thigh to maybe waist high and warbled and mushed and not really rideable. North San Diego had waves at chest to shoulder high and lined up and warbled and soft with poor form. Oahu's North Shore had waves at waist to maybe chest high and warbled and crumbled and nearly chopped at exposed breaks. The South Shore had waves at thigh high or so on the sets and weakly lined up with decent form but soft and clean. The East Shore was getting east trade wind windswell at 1-2 ft overhead and heavily chopped from strong east-northeasterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (4/6) California and Hawaii were getting no defined swell of interest other than locally generated windswell. A gale developed off the Kuril Islands while tracking northeast fast Mon-Tues (4/2) producing up to 43 ft seas before it impacted the Western Aleutians. Small sideband swell is hitting California but buried in local windswell. And a small gale was tracking east over the North Dateline Region to the Western Gulf Fri-Sun (4/7) with 34-37 ft seas aimed east but most energy is impacting the Aleutian Islands. Small swell is moving towards California. A cutoff low is forecast developing north of Hawaii on Thurs-Fri (4/12) with 24 ft seas aimed south. But in general a pretty quiet pattern is set up for the North Pacific as it transitions to a Summertime mode. Down south a gale developed in the deep Southeast Pacific Wed-Thurs (4/4) with 31 ft seas aimed decently northeast. And another small one was developing while tracking east under New Zealand Sat-Sun (4/7) with up to 33 ft seas aimed east. Another is forecast developing in the upper reaches of the Southeast Pacific Mon-Wed (4/10) generating 33-34 ft seas aimed due north. And perhaps another one is to develop under New Zealand on Wed-Thurs (4/11) with 34 ft seas aimed east. The seasonal transition from Winter towards Summer appears to be underway.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (4/6) the jet was completely split from Japan across the North Pacific only consolidating momentarily once the jet pushed inland over Central CA into Nevada with winds in the influential northern branch tracking just south of the Aleutians with winds building to 160-170 kts just south of Alaska forming a weak trough off the Pacific Northwest offering some support for gale development. And a weak trough was approaching the North Dateline region offering some support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the same pattern is to hold with the trough off the Pacific Northwest moving inland on Sun (4/7) making for some weather there while the trough over the North Dateline region easing east into the Northwestern Gulf on Sun-Mon (4/8) but weakening offering less support for gale development. Remnants of that trough are to build some Tues (4/9) south of the Eastern Aleutians being fed by 140 kts winds falling south offering some limited support for gale formation but becoming pretty pinched on Wed (3/10) north of Hawaii and then fully cutoff north of Hawaii on Thurs (4/11) offering local weather there. After that the jet is to remain really split over the width of the North Pacific with no real meaningful troughs forecast driven by the Inactive Phase of the MJO destructively integrating with of the arrival of Springtime high pressure.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (4/6) locally generated windswell was hitting California and Hawaii. And swell from a gale previously over the far Northwest Pacific was theoretically starting to hit North Ca but lost under the windswell (see Kuril Gale below).

Kuril Gale
On Mon AM (4/1) a gale developed off Japan with 45 kt southwest winds and seas building. In the evening the gale built to storm status while lifting northeast with west winds 50 kts and seas 33 ft at 45.75N 164E aimed east. On Tues AM (4/2) the gale was just south of the Western Aleutians with west winds 55 kts and seas 43 ft at 50.75N 170E aimed east and poised to start impacting the Aleutians. In the evening the gale moved into the Bering Sea with 32 ft seas fading south of the Aleutians at 52N 175E aimed east. Maybe some sideband swell radiating east towards mostly the US mainland.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (4/6) building to 1.7 ft @ 17 secs later (2.5 ft) and very inconsistent. Swell builds more on Sun (4/7) peaking at 2.8 ft @ 15 secs (4.0 ft) holding through the day. Swell fading on Mon (4/8) from 2.6 ft @ 13 secs (3.0 ft) and becoming lost in shorter period local windswell. Swell Direction: 308 degrees

North Dateline Gale
A gale developed while approaching the the North Dateline region from the southwest on Fri AM (4/5) with 45 kt west winds and seas building from 20 ft at 46.5N 169.25E aimed east. In the evening west winds built in coverage at 45 kts just south of the Central Aleutians with seas 35 ft at 51.5N 174.75E aimed east. On Sat AM (4/6) west winds were 45 kts just south of the Central Aleutians while the core of the gale moved fully into the Bering Sea with seas 36 ft unshadowed just south of the Central Aleutians at 51N 180W aimed east. In the afternoon the gale is to track east into the Northwestern Gulf with 35-40 kt west winds unshadowed and seas 32 ft at 51.5N 172.5 aimed east. On Sun AM (4/7) fetch is to be fading while falling southeast over the Northwestern Gulf from 30 kts with seas fading from 26 ft at 50.5N 165.75W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to fall southeast with 30 kt northwest winds and seas fading from 23 ft at 49.75N 160W aimed east. The gale is to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Wed (4/10) building to 3.0 ft @ 15-16 secs later (4.5 ft) with equal size local windswell intermixed. Swell building on Thurs (4/11) to 5.0 ft @ 14 secs (7.0 ft). Swell getting overcome by local windswell after that. Swell Direction: 306 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Sun AM (4/7) northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon high pressure builds offshore producing a gradient with northwest winds 15-20 kts for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA early. Showers for Cape Mendocino early then clearing.
Mon AM (4/8) high pressure builds producing northwest winds at 20-25 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds moderate some at 20 kts for North and Central CA and light further south. No precip forecast.
Tues AM (4/9) the gradient fades with northwest winds 10-15 kts for North CA and 5-10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino but 10 kts south of Pt Arena and 5-10 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Wed AM (4/10) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts for Pt Arena southward. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts south of Pt Arena to Pt Conception.
Thurs AM (4/11) northwest winds to be 20 kts for North CA down to Bodega Bay and 10 kts south of there. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA.
Fri AM (4/12) a new gradient is forecast producing northwest winds at 25-35 kts for North CA early and 20-25 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 30-35 kts for all of North and Central CA.
Sat AM (4/13) northwest winds to be 25-35 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds fade some from 20-25 kts for North CA and 25 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 1, 0 and 0 inches with a dusting on late Sat and Sun (4/7), then nothing.

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Levels building from 4,500 ft today building to 6,200 ft early on 4/8 then rising to 10,500 ft on 4/9 and more of less holding thereafter. The last of Winter is fading now and Summer is just around the corner.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Sat AM (4/6) no swell of interest from the South Pacific was hitting California or Hawaii.

Over the next 72 hours swell from a gale that developed in the deep South Central Pacific was pushing northeast towards California and (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

A gale was developing while push east under New Zealand on Sat AM (4/6) with 40+ kt west southwest winds and seas 29 ft at 60.5S 151.25E aimed east. In the evening 40-45 kt west winds are forecast with seas building to 32 ft at 62.25S 166.25E aimed east. On Sun AM (4/7) southwest fetch is to fade from 40 kts while lifting northeast with seas 32 ft at 61S 177.25E aimed northeast. In the evening a broad fetch of southwest winds at 35 kts is to remain producing 27 ft seas aimed due northeast at 59S 171.25W aimed east-northeast. The gale is to fade Mon AM (4/8) over the deep South Central Pacific with southwest winds 35 kts and seas 25 ft at 64.5S 163W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

And of more interest is a gale forecast developing in the upper reaches of the Southeast Pacific on Mon PM (4/8) generating a fetch of south winds at 35-40 kts with seas building from 25 ft at 43S 134W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (4/9) south winds to build to 45 kts over a solid area aimed due north with seas building to 32 ft at 49S 138W aimed north. In the evening south winds to fade from 40 kts with seas 35 ft at 44.75S 139.5W aimed due north. Fetch fading on Wed AM (4/10) from 30-35 kts and seas fading from 30 ft at 43S 139W aimed north. In the evening south fetch fading from 30 kts with seas 23 ft at 37S 137W aimed north. Something to monitor given this gales far north position and is aim directly at California.

Southeast Pacific Gale
A gale started developing in the deep Central South Pacific on Wed AM (4/3) with 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas building from 25 ft at 64.5S 160W aimed northeast. In the afternoon a fetch of 45 kt fully southwest winds were lifting east-northeast over the Southeast Pacific with seas 29 ft at 64S 144W aimed east-northeast. Fetch was fading Thurs AM (4/4) from 40 kts from the southwest while lifting northeast over far Southeast Pacific with seas fading from 30 ft at 59.5S 132W aimed northeast. The gale was dissipating in the evening with south winds 30 kts and seas fading 27 ft at 54S 124.5W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival Fri (4/12) building to 1.1 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell building on Sat (4/13) to 1.5 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-day (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading some on Sun (4/14) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Residuals on Mon (4/15) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 191 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (4/13) building to 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-day (2.0 ft). Swell building some on Sun (4/14) from 1.5 ft @ 15 secs mid-day (2.0-2.5 ft). Residuals on Mon (4/15) fading from 1.7 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 189 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a cutoff low is forecast developing north of Hawaii on Wed PM (4/10) producing 30 kt northeast winds with seas 19 ft at 30N 167W aimed southwest. On Thurs AM (4/11) north winds to build in coverage at 35+ kts targeting Kauai directly with seas 23 ft at 29.25N 167W aimed south. In the evening fetch is to build to 40 kts 700 nmiles north of Kauai with seas 22 ft at 30.75N 170W aimed south. Fetch fading Fri AM (4/12) from 30 kts with seas fading from 19 ft at 29.75N 172W aimed south and bypassing Hawaii. Something to monitor.

Beyond 72 hours starting Wed PM (4/10) a gale is forecast tracking under New Zealand with 40-45 kt west winds and seas building to 29-30 ft at 58S 162E aimed east. Fetch is to rebuild further south Thurs AM (4/11) at 45 kts from the east with seas 39 ft at 64.25S 179.75W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be falling southeast at 40 kts with seas 35 ft at 66.75S 162.75W aimed east. This looks much less likely to be a real swell producing weather system.

La Nina Arrives
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Starting to Fade
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But now cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/5) 5 day average winds were moderate to strong east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak west over East equatorial Pacific and modest west over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (4/6) East anomalies were at moderate status filling the KWGA today. The forecast indicates moderate east anomalies filling the KWGA through 4/9 then moving east with weak west anomalies starting to build over the KWGA from the west and eventually filling the KWGA by 4/14 while building to strong status filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 4/22.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (4/5) A weak Inactive MJO (clear sky's) was over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Inactive MJO is to nearly dissipate on day 5 of the model run as the Active Phase starts building in from the west then in control on days 10 and 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts the same thing but with the Active Phase reaching strong status on day 15.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (4/6) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was weak over the East Indian Ocean today. The forecast indicates it is to move to the far West Maritime Continent over the next 15 days at very weak status. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase moving to the Central West Pacific 15 days out and very weak.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (4/6) A weak Active MJO pattern (wet air) was starting to build over the KWGA today. The Active MJO (wet air) is to build while filling the KWGA through 4/26. After that a weak Inactive Phase is to start building over the West KWGA through the end of the model run on 5/16.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/5) Today a modest Inactive MJO signal and east anomalies were over the and filling the KWGA. It is to hold if not build some then fading on 4/14. After that the Active Phase is to develop tracking east through the KWGA with modest west anomalies 4/10 through 4/24. After that the Active Phase is to push east of the KWGA with a neutral pattern and weak east anomalies taking hold through the end of the model run on 5/3.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/6) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
This model is corrupt again. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 165W with the second contour line fading on 4/9. The final contour is to fade on 6/27. It appears a strong El Nino is fading out. The Low pressure bias is to move back to the Indian Ocean starting 5/3 building there through the end of the model run on 6/28.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (4/6) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was rebuilding to the east at 177W from 180W. The 28 deg isotherm line was 5 meters deep from 100W to 160W then deeper west of there and mostly just waters warmed by sunlight and being pushed west by trade winds. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was shallow but stable in the east at 25m deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were building in coverage at +2 degs while getting compressed to the surface fast under the East Pacific at 28m deep from Ecuador west to 155W and mainly just the result of suppressed trades driven by the Active Phase of the MJO there. Neutral to +1 deg anomalies or less were deeper from the dateline west. El Nino is gone subsurface. A large pool of cold anomalies at -4 degs were down at 120m deep at 160W reaching east and weaker to a point along Ecuador at -1 degs and filling the entire Equatorial Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/29 indicates cold water was in control from Ecuador west to 125W at the surface and at depth to 160E. The last remnant warm surface water from El Nino was getting pushed west by trades starting at 120W and points west of there. Cold water was filling the entire equatorial Pacific thermocline below it. La Nina is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/29) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms over the entire area and -10 cms from the Galapagos to 120W and in another pocket from 130-150W and building in coverage. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (3/29) cold water was filling the Equatorial Pacific and -0.5 to -1.5 degs over the entire equatorial Pacific. El Nino is gone from the subsurface perspective and now clearly turning to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/5) The latest images depict a moderate warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to 160W and actually building density except for 1 cool pocket along the coast of Ecuador. There is still a solid El Nino signal present but with the beginnings of a cold La Nina signal are starting to emerge from the depths up to the oceans surface along Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/5): A small cooling pocket was off Ecuador reaching to the Galapagos with weaker cooling west from there to 120W. Warming was on the equator west of there to the dateline. A warming trend that has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 was fading and a cooling pattern is becoming evident building east to west on the equator.
Hi-res Overview: (4/5) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline with a cool pocket along the coast of Ecuador. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present and building in density on the equator west to the dateline. Everything still looks like El Nino but the beginnings of La Nina are developing at the surface near Ecuador.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/6) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rising slightly at -0.378 after falling to -0.565 on 4/1 and have been below 0 since 3/19. Temps previously were up at +1.024 degs on 3/12 fading from +1.197 on 2/13 as the last of warm subsurface water got squeezed upwards. Temps were up from +0.502 on 2/4 and had been toggling in the +0.6 degs range since 12/30, previously up into the +2.0 range in early Nov. .
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/6) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were toggling at +1.120 degrees today and have been in this range since 3/11 Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12. Weekly OISST are +1.0 (week of 3/27) down from +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1). Monthly Data is +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.56 Feb. The 3 month ONI is +1.8 for the 3 month period DJF and +2.0 ft for NDJ (bare minimal Super El Nino status). All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan and +1.65 in Feb.
Forecast (4/6) - Temps to fall to +0.5 degs mid-April, -0.5 late May and -2.3 degs in Nov/Dec 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to only -1.70degs. According to this version of the model we are past the peak of a strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The March 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +0.760 degs today and its the 11th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to +0.326 in April (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there down to -1.011 in Sept and holding there. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -1.097 in Sept and the Statistic down to -1.021 in Oct.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (4/6) the Daily Index was negative at -18.32 today. The daily SOI turned mostly positive on 2/20 after a 28 day negative peaking down at -46.54 on 2/9. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was falling some at -2.76, Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was falling some at -4.46. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/19 and hard negative in 10/21-10/23 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/23-2/24 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.