BUOY ROUNDUP
Saturday, April 13, 2024 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (4/13) in North and Central CA waves were waist to chest high and somewhat lined up with some warbled running through it but fairly clean with a few sections. Protected breaks were waist high plus and clean and somewhat lined up with decent form but soft. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high and warbled and mushed from south wind and weak. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high and weakly lined up and mushed and lightly chopped form south wind. Central Orange County had waves at waist high and somewhat lined up with decent form but real soft and mushed with southeast winds putting some texture on it. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves up to near head high and lined up with good form but a bit on the soft side with some warble in the water from southerly wind. North San Diego had waves at waist up to maybe near chest high on the sets and lined up and fairly clean but with some slight warble intermixed. Oahu's North Shore had waves at waist high on occasion and clean and lined. The South Shore had waves at thigh to waist high on the sets and weakly lined up with poor form and warbled from south wind. The East Shore was getting east trade wind windswell at up to waist high and fairly clean with light south wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (4/13) California was getting minimal locally generated west windswell from low pressure just off the North and Central CA coast Fri-Sun (4/14) perhaps generating 18-20 ft seas. A cutoff low developed northwest of Hawaii on Thurs-Fri (4/12) with 29 ft seas aimed south mostly bypassing Hawaii to the west. In general a pretty quiet pattern is set up for the North Pacific with nothing else forecast as it transitions to a Summertime mode. Down south a small gale developed while tracking east under New Zealand Sat-Sun (4/7) with up to 33 ft seas aimed east. Small swell from it was starting to hit the South Shores of the Hawaiian Islands. And another developed in the upper reaches of the Southeast Pacific Mon-Wed (4/10) generating 33-34 ft seas aimed due north. Swell is radiating towards mostly California. And another one developed while tracking under New Zealand into the Central South Pacific Wed-Thurs (4/11) with 35-40 ft seas aimed east. A small system is forecast developing under New Zealand Tues-Wed (4/17) with 35 ft seas aimed mostly east. Then nothing else is forecast after that. But the seasonal transition from Winter towards Summer appears to be underway.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (4/13) the jet was completely split from Japan across the North Pacific with winds in the influential northern branch tracking east on the 50N latitude line from off the North Kuril Islands to British Columbia with winds 130-140 kts but with no troughs indicated offering no support for gale development. A cutoff low was circulating northwest of Hawaii and is forecast tracking east into Tues (4/16) possibly supporting some form of local low pressure development. Over the next 72 hours no other support for gale formation was indicated. Beyond 72 hours more of the same is forecast but with a trough possibly developing over the Eastern Aleutians falling southeast Tues-Fri (4/19) being fed 130-140 kts winds possibly supporting gale formation over the Northwestern Gulf. And on Sat (4/21) another trough is forecast over the dateline offering some hope. But in general the Inactive Phase of the MJO is integrating with the arrival of Spring pretty much sealing off the end of the Winter surf season for the North Pacific.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (4/13) locally generated windswell was being generated by a backdoor trough off California (see California Backdoor Low below). And a cutoff low was northwest of Hawaii maybe providing hope beyond there (see Hawaii Cutoff Low below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast though the jetstream seems to be offering some support in the upper levels of the atmosphere. That is a typical pattern for the Spring.

Hawaii Cutoff Low
A cutoff low developing northwest of Hawaii on Thurs AM (4/11) with 40-45 kt northeast winds and seas 25 ft at 29N 169W but not aimed at the Hawaiian Islands. In the evening winds held position at 35-40 kts from the northeast with seas 27 ft at 30.5N 171.5W aimed southwest again not really targeting Hawaii. The gale held position Fri AM (4/12) with northeast winds 35 kts and seas 23 ft at 32N 173.5W aimed south still bypassing Hawaii. In the evening fetch was fading from 30-35 ks with seas 21 ft at 33.75N 173.25W aimed southwest and offering nothing. The gale is to continue circulating while fading to low pressure status into Sun AM (4/14) west of the Islands offering nothing.

But on Sun PM (4/14) the low is to be drifting northeast producing north winds at 30 kts with seas to 19 ft at 32N 167W aimed south possibly setting up windswell radiating towards the Islands. On Mon AM (4/15) north winds to be 30 kts 700 nmiles north-northwest of Oahu with seas 17 ft at 29N 166W aimed south offering some potential. Fetch fading there in the evening. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Mon (4/15) at sunset at 3.4 ft @ 13 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell peaking Tues AM (4/16) at 5.8 ft @ 12 secs (6.5 ft). Residuals Wed AM (4/17) fading from 5.1 ft @ 10 secs (5.0 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (4/18) fading from 4.0 ft @ 10-11 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 320 moving to 355 degrees

California Backdoor Low
A low pressure system was developing well off North CA on Fri AM (4/12) with northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 19-20 ft at 42.5N 137W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale fell southeast with 25-30 kt northwest winds off San Francisco and seas 19 ft at 36.5N 137.5W aimed southeast targeting Central CA. On Sat AM (4/13) the gale was just off San Francisco producing northwest winds at 30 kts targeting South and Central CA with seas 17 ft at 37.5N 130W aimed southeast. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 25 kts with seas 17 ft at 35.5N 128W targeting Central and Southern CA well. The gale to dissipate after that while moving over Pt Conception late Sunday. Something to monitor.

North CA: Expect windswell arriving late Sat (4/13) building to 6.0 ft @ 11-12 secs (6.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun AM (4/14) from 5.0 ft @ 11 secs early (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 270-285 degrees

Southern CA: Expect windswell arriving Sun AM (4/14) to 2.9 ft @ 12 secs early (3.0-3.5 ft). Residuals fading Mon AM (4/15) from 2.2 ft @ 10 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 285 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 2, 3, 3 and 2 inches with all later Sat into Sun (4/14).

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Level down to 3.800 ft Sat-Sun (4/14) rebuilding to 10,000 ft on 4/15 and holding beyond.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Sat AM (4/13) tiny swell from a gale that developed under New Zealand was hitting Hawaii and bound for California (see New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a gale that developed in the Southeast Pacific is to be radiating north hitting Hawaii and CA (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

New Zealand Gale
A gale was developing while push east under New Zealand on Sat AM (4/6) with 35-40 kt west winds and seas 29 ft at 60.5S 151.25E aimed east. In the evening 40-45 kt west winds were building in coverage with seas building to 30 ft at 62.25S 165.75E aimed east. On Sun AM (4/7) southwest fetch was fading from 35-40 kts while lifting northeast with seas 32 ft at 61.5S 175.75E aimed east-northeast. In the evening a broad fetch of southwest winds at 35 kts remained producing 26 ft seas aimed due northeast at 59.25S 171.5W aimed east-northeast. The gale was fading Mon AM (4/8) over the deep South Central Pacific while lifting hard northeast with southwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 25 ft at 57S 157W aimed northeast. Small swell is possible mainly for CA.

Hawaii: Expect small sideband swell arriving on Sat (4/13) building to 1.4 ft @ 16-17 secs late (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Sun (4/14) from 1.4 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.0 ft). Dribbles on Mon (4/15) fading from 1.2 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 197 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (4/15) building to 1.1 ft @ 19 secs mid-day (2.0 ft). Swell continues on Tues (4/16) at 1.3 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) but possibly being overrun by more local southerly swell. Swell Direction: 211 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (4/15) building to 1.1 ft @ 19 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell continues on Tues (4/16) at 1.4 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) but possibly being overrun by more local southerly swell. Swell Direction: 210 degrees

Southeast Pacific Gale
A gale developed in the upper reaches of the Southeast Pacific on Mon PM (4/8) generating a fairly broad fetch of south winds at 35 kts with seas building from 25 ft at 51S 147W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (4/9) south winds built to 45 kts over a solid area aimed due north with seas building to 29 ft at 49S 140W aimed north. In the evening south winds were fading in coverage from 40- 45 kts with seas 34 ft at 46S 138W aimed due north. Fetch faded on Wed AM (4/10) from 30-35 kts and seas fading from 30 ft at 45S 135W aimed due north. In the evening south fetch was fading from 25-30 kts with seas 25 ft at 40S 130W aimed northeast. Something to monitor given this gales far north position and aim directly at California.

Hawaii: Sideband swell arriving on Mon (4/15) building to 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0 ft). On Tues (4/16) swell building to 1.6 ft @15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Wed (4/17) from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 175-180 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (4/16) building to 2.1 ft @ 18-19 secs later (4.0 ft). Swell building through the day Wed (4/17) to 2.7 ft @ 16-17 secs later (4.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs AM (4/18) from 2.9 ft @ 15-16 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell fading on Fri (4/19) from 2.4 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (4/20) fading from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 193 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (4/16) building to 1.6 ft @ 19 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell building through the day Wed (4/17) to 2.6 ft @ 17 secs later (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell peaking Thurs AM (4/18) from 2.8 ft @ 16 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell fading on Fri (4/19) from 2.5 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (4/20) fading from 2.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

Another New Zealand Gale
On Tues AM (4/9) a storm was tracking east under the Tasman Sea with west winds 50 kts ands seas 39 ft at 55.75S 148E aimed east. In the evening the gale was pushing under New Zealand with 45 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 57.25W 159E aimed east. On Wed AM (4/10) the gale tracked east-southeast with 40 kt west winds and seas 32 ft at 60S 170E aimed east. On Wed PM (4/10) additional fetch developed over the same general area at 55 kts from the west producing seas 35 ft at 62.25S 178.25W aimed east and southeast. Fetch was pushing east on Thurs AM (4/11) at 50 kts from the east with seas 41 ft over a tiny area at 65.5S 164.25W aimed east. In the evening fetch was racing east at 35-40 kts with seas 35 ft at 65.5S 148W aimed east. Fetch fading Fri AM (4/12) at 35 kts but over a broad area from the southwest with seas 31 ft at 62S 138.25W aimed east. Fetch was fading in the evening from 30 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 29 ft at 59.5S 128.75W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Wed (4/17) building to 1.2 ft @ 17 secs later(2.0 ft). Swell building on Thurs (4/18) to 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell fading Fri AM (4/19) from 1.5 ft @ 15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) early. Residuals on Sat AM (4/20) fading from 1.3 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0 ft). Dribbles on Sun AM (4/21) fading from 1.2 ft @ 14-15 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 210-215 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on at sunset on Fri (4/19) building to 1.1 ft @ 19-20 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell building Sat (4/20) to 1.6 ft @ 18 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell peaking on Sun (4/21) at 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-day (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell holding Mon (4/22) at 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (4/23) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction:200 degrees moving to 195 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (4/20) to 1.4 ft @ 19 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell peaking on Sun (4/21) at 1.7 ft @ 17 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell holding Mon (4/22) at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (4/23) from 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction:200 degrees moving to 195 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours perhaps another gale is to track east under New Zealand starting Tues AM (4/16) with a small area of west winds at 45 kts and seas 33 over a tiny area at 57.25S 159E aimed east. In the evening west winds to be 45 kts with seas 34 ft at 55.5S 174.75E aimed east. Fetch fading Wed AM (4/17) from 40 kts with seas 29 ft at 56.25S 172.5W aimed east. Something to monitor.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

La Nina Arrives
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Starting to Fade
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But now cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/12) 5 day average winds were strong east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak east over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (4/13) East anomalies were at moderate status filling mainly the dateline today. The forecast indicates moderate east anomalies steadily moving east and losing coverage in the KWGA and gone by 4/20 with weak west anomalies building over the KWGA from the west filling it by 4/22 at modest strength and then holding filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 4/29 but with some intermixed pockets of east anomalies.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (4/13) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was backtracking from 177W to 180W. The 28 deg isotherm line was 5 meters deep from 100W to 150W then deeper west of there and mostly just waters warmed by sunlight and being pushed west by trade winds. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was shallow but stable in the east at 25m deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were fading from +2 degs while getting compressed to the surface fast under the East Pacific at 28m deep from Ecuador west to 155W and mainly just the result of suppressed trades driven by the Active Phase of the MJO fading there. Neutral to +1 deg anomalies or less were deeper from the dateline west. El Nino is gone subsurface. A large pool of cold anomalies at -6 degs were down at 120m deep at 155W reaching east and weaker to a point along Ecuador at -1 degs and filling the entire Equatorial Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/3 indicates cold water was in control from Ecuador west to 125W at the surface and at depth to 160E. The last remnant warm surface water from El Nino was getting pushed west by trades starting at 120W and points west of there. Cold water was filling the entire equatorial Pacific thermocline below it. La Nina is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (4/8) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 to -10 cms over the entire equatorial Pacific. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (4/8) cold water was filling the Equatorial Pacific and -0.5 to -1.5 degs over the entire equatorial Pacific. El Nino is gone from the subsurface perspective and now clearly turning to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/12) The latest images depict a moderate warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to 160W except with a developing cooler tongue on the equator from Ecuador to 135W and 1 cool pocket along the coast of Ecuador expanding west to 130W. There is still a solid El Nino signal present but with the beginnings of a cold La Nina signal are starting to emerge from the depths up to the oceans surface along Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/12): Water temps were falling over the entire equatorial Pacific strongest near 120W. No meaningful warming was indicated. A warming trend that has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 was fading and a cooling pattern is becoming evident.
Hi-res Overview: (4/12) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline with a cool tongue developing while extending west from the coast of Ecuador. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but being weakened by a building La Nina signal.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/13) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rising slightly at -0.151 after falling to -0.565 on 4/1 and have been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/13) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling at +0.564 degs falling from +1.120 (4/3) degrees. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12. Weekly OISST are +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1). Monthly Data is +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.15 March. The 3 month ONI is +1.8 for the 3 month period DJF and +2.0 ft for NDJ (bare minimal Super El Nino status). All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SSST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan and +1.65 in Feb.
Forecast (4/13) - Temps fell to +1.0 degs mid-April, 0.0 mid-May and -2.05 degs in Nov/Dec 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to only -1.5 degs. According to this version of the model we are past the peak of a strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The March 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +0.760 degs today and its the 11th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to +0.326 in April (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there down to -1.011 in Sept and holding there. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -1.097 in Sept and the Statistic down to -1.021 in Oct.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (4/13) the Daily Index was rising at +4.97 today. The daily SOI turned mostly positive on 2/20 after a 28 day negative peaking down at -46.54 on 2/9. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was falling some at -4.00, Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was falling some at -5.52. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/19 and hard negative in 10/21-10/23 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/23-2/24 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table