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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, April 16, 2019 4:46 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.5 - California & 2.2 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 4/15 thru Sun 4/21

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

North Pacific Fading Out
Southern Hemi Showing Signs of Life

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Tuesday, April 16, 2019 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/ Buoy 239 (Lanai) seas were 2.3 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 1.0 ft @ 13.5 secs from 205 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 5.1 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 3.5 ft @ 14.1 secs from 315 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 12.7 secs from 202 degrees. Wind at the buoy was west at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 59.0 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 1.5 ft @ 12.8 secs from 260 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.3 secs from 235 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 1.2 ft @ 13.5 secs from 225 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.8 ft @ 13.2 secs from 262 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 7.3 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 4.2 ft @ 12.6 secs from 293 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was northwest at 14-18 kts. Water temp 54.1 degs (042) and 50.7 (013).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (4/16) in North and Central CA local north windswell was mixed with West Gulf swell producing waves at head high and soft and warbled and pretty bumpy with light whitecaps early. Protected breaks were waist high and soft and jumbled and warbled but a little cleaner. At Santa Cruz northwest swell was wrapping in mixed with background southern hemi swell producing surf at waist high or so on the sets and lined up and clean when it came. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high and clean and somewhat lined up making for rideable conditions if you are patient. In North Orange Co surf was chest high on the sets on the peak and a bit textured and soft and crumbled. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks had waves in the waist to chest high range on the peak and pretty heavily textured and crumbled and inconsistent. North San Diego had surf at thigh high on the sets and textured and mushed. Hawaii's North Shore was getting residual West Pacific swell with waves head high to 1 ft overhead on the sets and real clean and lined up but slow. The South Shore was flat to thigh high on the sets and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell with waves waist high and textured early with light southeast trades in control.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (4/16) in California local northerly windswell was mixing with fading swell from the Western Gulf with pretty warbled conditions still in control. The last of swell from another gale previously in the West Pacific was fading in Hawaii. This gale developed off Japan Fri-Sat (4/13) pushing to the North Dateline region before fading with seas to 36 ft aimed east and is still bound for California, but small. Perhaps one more small gale to develop in the Northeastern Gulf on Tues (4/16) with 26 ft seas aimed briefly east, followed by a second gale in the same area Wed (4/17) with 29 ft seas aimed northeast. After that it appears Winter and Spring are to be over. In the Southern Hemisphere maybe a small gale to form in the Central Pacific Fri-Sun (4/21) with up to 34 ft seas lifting northeast.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (4/16) the jetstream was consolidated tracking weakly off Japan with winds 120 kts in a thin stream pushing east then falling into a small trough on the dateline capable of supporting low pressure development. East of there the jet split with the northern branch lifting east-northeast and over the Gulf of Alaska pushing up to British Columbia then down over the North CA coast with no troughs indicated offering no support for gale development. The southern branch tracked southeast over Hawaii and then east pushing over Southern Baja. Over the next 72 hours the trough on the dateline is to push rapidly east holding together somewhat and supporting gale development into early Thursday when it fade just off the Pacific Northwest. At that time the jet is to be reasonably consolidated pushing off Japan with a single consolidated flow pushing east the whole way across the North Pacific with winds to 130 kts in one pocket on the dateline but generally in the 100-110 kt range with no clearly defined troughs in place offering no support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours a variation on that same pattern is expected to hold with perhaps a small and weak trough developing in the Northern Gulf, but otherwise no obvious signs of support for gale development is indicated.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (4/16) swell from the Western Gulf was all but gone in California and buried in local windswell (see West Gulf Gale below). And another swell originating from the West Pacific was hitting Hawaii and weakly bound for California (see West Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours two systems were being tracked.

On Tues AM (4/16) a tiny gale developed in the Northern Gulf producing 35 kt west winds over a small area and seas building to 26 ft at 50.5N 149W aimed east. The gale is to dissipate in the evening with no seas of interest remaining. Tiny sideband swell possible for NCal and the Pacific Northwest.

NCal: Swell arrival Thursday at sunset (4/18) building to 4.2 ft @ 14 secs (5.5 ft). Swell fading Fri AM (4/19) from 2.7 ft @ 12 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 305-310 degrees.

A second gale is forecast developing in the Northeastern Gulf on Wed PM (4/17) with 45 kt southeast winds lifting hard northeast with seas 25 ft at 18Z at 48N 144.5N (311 degs NCal) and then at 00Z at 29 ft at 49.5N 141.5W aimed east to northeast and nearly out of the NCal swell window (319 degrees). no real swell to result of NCal with most energy targeting the Pacific Northwest.

 

West Gulf Gale
A gale developed while lifting northeast fast on the dateline Wed AM (4/10) with 40 kt southwest winds and seas 24 ft at 38N 179W aimed east. In the evening the gale built to storm status while racing northeast over the North Dateline/Northwestern Gulf region with 55 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 44N 169.5W aimed east. The storm stalled and downgraded to gale status Thurs AM (4/11) over the Eastern Aleutians with 50 kt west winds holding south of the Eastern Aleutians and 37 ft seas at 50N 161.5W aimed east. The gale faded in the evening with 40 kt southwest winds and seas 36 ft over a small area at 54.5N 157.5W aimed east. On Fri AM (4/12) 30 kt west winds were still holding with 25 ft seas fading at 55N 155W in the Northwestern Gulf aimed east. The gale faded out after that. Possible decent swell for the Pacific Northwest and less reaching down into North and Central CA.

North CA: Residuals fading on Tues AM (4/16) from 5.6 ft @ 12-13 secs (7.0 ft). Swell Direction: 303 degrees

 

West Pacific Gale
Another small gale developed off North Japan on Thurs PM (4/11) with 40 kts west winds and seas building to 27 ft over a tiny area at 37.5N 160E. The gale was lifting northeast Fri AM (4/12) with west winds 40 kts and seas building to 32 ft at 40N 167E aimed east. In the evening the gale was approaching the dateline with 45 kt west winds over a small area and seas 35 ft at 42N 173.5E aimed east. The gale was fading Sat AM (4/13) on the North Dateline region with 40 kt west winds over a small area and seas fading from 31 ft at 43.5N 179W aimed east. In the evening winds were fading from 30-35 kts from the west with seas 25 ft at 45.5N 172W aimed east. On Sun AM this system was all but gone with seas fading from 21 ft at 48N 166W aimed east. Small swell to result.

Hawaii: Swell holding on Tues (4/16) at 3.0 ft @ 13-14 secs early (4.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed (4/17) fading from 2.1 ft 11-12 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 312 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (4/17) with small swell building to 3.9 ft @ 16 secs (6.0 ft) mid-day and holding. On Thursday (4/18) mixed swell and windswell to be 3.8 ft @ 14 secs (5.0 ft) and fading. Swell Direction: 295 degrees

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday AM (4/16) low pressure was inland over Nevada with high pressure weakly building in behind with northwest winds 15 kts early for all of North and Central CA building to near 20 kts later for Pt Conception. Light rain down for Pt Conception fading quickly mid-AM. Light snow for the Sierra focused mainly on the Southern Sierra and fading through the day. Wednesday (4/17) north winds to be 10-15 kts for all of North and Central CA holding all day. No precip forecast. Thurs (4/18) a weak summertime like gradient is forecast with north winds 15 kts over Cape Mendocino but only 10 kts south of there. Friday (4/19) more of the same is forecast with north winds 20 kts for Cape Mendocino to Pt Arena building to 25 kts later but only 10 kts south of there early building to 15 kts later. Saturday (4/20) north winds are to be in control at 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA building to 30 kts over North CA in the afternoon as high pressure builds off the coast. North winds continue Sun (4/21) at 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA all day. Monday (4/22) north winds hold at 20 kts all day fading to 15-20 kts on Tues (4/23). A real mess.

Total snow accumulation for for the week (thru Tues PM 4/23) per the GFS model: Tahoe = 1-2 inches and Mammoth = 1-2 inches all of which occurred this morning (Tues AM 4/16).

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis  
No swell producing weather systems of interest were occurring in the South Pacific.

Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast developing southeast of New Zealand Thurs PM (4/18) with 45 kt southwest winds building and lifting northeast with seas building to 34 ft at 62S 175.5W. On Fri AM (4/19) fetch is to be lifting hard northeast but down to 35 kts over a broad area with seas 30 ft at 57N 165.5W aimed northeast. Additional 35 kt southwest fetch is to build in behind in the evening with 27 ft seas at 54S 153W aimed northeast. On Sat AM (4/20) winds to build to 40 kts with seas 28-30 ft at 53.5S 149.5W aimed east-northeast. In the evening 35-40 kt mostly westerly fetch is to track east with seas 29 ft at 49.5S 140W aimed east-northeast. On Sun AM (4/21) fetch is to fade from 35 kts over a solid area aimed east with 27 ft seas at 50S 132W aimed east-northeast. This system to fade from there. Something to monitor.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours another gale is forecast developing in the Central South Pacific on Mon AM (4/22) with 45 kt southwest winds and seas building to 32 ft at 59S 152W aimed northeast. Fetch to build to storm status in the evening with 60 kt southwest winds and seas building to 43 ft at 54S 139.5W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (4/23) the storm is to be fading while tracking northeast with 55 kt southwest winds and seas 46 ft at 50S 129.5W aimed northeast. Possible decent swell pushing northeast if one is to believe the models.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Final Kelvin Wave #3 Poised to Erupt - No Legit El Nino Forecast

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and did not stop, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. As of January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then started building some late in Feb associated with another Kelvin Wave (#3).

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2018 = 6.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that El Nino does not develop as strong as previously forecast, and assuming and an ocean-atmospheric coupling becomes weakly established in the January timeframe and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 build to the +0.6 deg range, there is good probability for slightly enhanced storm production in the North Pacific starting in the late Nov timeframe (specifically the Gulf of Alaska and Dateline regions) with slightly increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in slightly increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period. This should be significantly better than the past 2 winter seasons.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/15) 5 day average winds were from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific to the dateline, then stronger easterly over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the entire Pacific other than modestly westerly on the dateline south of the equator.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (4/16) neutral anomalies were controlling the KWGA. The forecast is for this situation to continue through the end of the model run on 4/23. There is no enhanced nor diminished support for storm development and no real change is forecast.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (4/15) A weak Inactive MJO pattern was over the KWGA. The statistic model indicates a weak Inactive MJO signal is to continue through the last day of the model run on day 15 while the Active Phase moves from the Indian Ocean to the Maritime Continent and nearly pushing into the Far West Pacific at day 15. The dynamic model indicates a variation on that theme with a weak Inactive Phase in the West Pacific and holding through day 10, then dissipating at day 15 turning neutral. The 2 models are generally in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (4/16) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was exceedingly weak and in no position and is to slowly build weakly over the Maritime Continent at day 15. The GEFS model suggests a variant of the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (4/16) This model depicts no coherent MJO signal and none is forecast for the next 40 days. Overall the MJO is to be exceedingly weak.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/14) This model depicts neutral anomalies to light west anomalies in the KWGA today. Spotty west anomalies are forecast to continue holding in the core of the KWGA through the end of the model run on 5/12. East anomalies associated with the Inactive Phase of the MJO are to try and build into the far West KWGA 4/20 to 5/5 but now never making it east to the core of the KWGA. There is no active support for storm development for the next 4 weeks but nothing suppressing it either.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/14) This model depicts the Active Phase was gone in the KWGA. A neutral anomaly wind and MJO pattern is to set up in the core of the KWGA from now till 5/3. After that weak but coherent west anomalies are to be in control starting 5/5 through the end of the model run on 7/14. No coherent MJO signal is forecast during that timeframe. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines is fully in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California but not inland and forecast to hold steady till 7/5. then fading to 1 contour line over the same area. It appears from this model that a tendency towards El Nino was previously in control during the Fall of 2018, but has been steadily fading since then and is to continue a slow decline for the foreseeable future, but not turning to La Nina. No meaningful El Nino will develop.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (4/16) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 29 deg temps reaching east to 172W mainly down 50 meters. The 28 deg isotherm line had retrograded west to 160W mid-Nov, then moved east and walled up to 153W near Christmas, then retrograded back at 160W in late Feb. But it made a major push east starting 3/16 from 150W to 140W on 3/20, and to 130W on 4/10 and to 121W on 4/14, then back to 125W today. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing into Ecuador 25-30 meters down. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire subsurface Pacific at +1 degs or greater from the surface to 150 meters down. A pocket of warmer water was centered at 120W at +2 degs (Kelvin Wave #3) almost reaching Ecuador and west to 139W. This Kelvin Wave is the warmest of any Kelvin Wave so far since La Nina faded into early 2018 and is to adding warmth moving into 2019. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/8 indicates cool water associated with the upwelling phase of the Kelvin Wave cycle just east of Ecuador were gone as of today. Kelvin Wave #3 was weaker in the West Pacific and stronger over the East Pacific and filling the entirety of that area. +2-3 deg anomalies were over the West Pacific and with a warmer pocket at +4-5 degs from 150W to 95W (attributable to a Westerly Wind Burst 12/30-1/16 and another 2/12-2/24). And there was a hint of more warm water was moving from the Maritime Continent into the far West Pacific at 135E falling into the pre-existing warm pool near 160W. There is a river of very warm water traversing the width of the equatorial Pacific. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (4/8) Positive anomalies were gone from the interior Maritime Continent with weak negative anomalies there now. But positive anomalies were solid tracking east from 155E pushing over the dateline to a point just east of the Galapagos (87W) at 0-5 cms with 2 imbedded pockets of +5 cms anomalies at 175E and 120W. But also pockets of normal heights were developing north and south of the equator at 160W and 130W indicating the density of the warm pool appears to be fading.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (4/15) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate temps were modestly warm straddling 20 degrees north and south of the equator from the Galapagos west to the dateline. These temps are fading some compared to days past. Cool water was along the entirety of the coast of Peru but warm water was building off Ecuador and Columbia in pockets and growing. There is some weak indication of a El Nino but nothing strong.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/15): A weak warming trend was over the equatorial Central Pacific with a pocket of stronger warming off Columbia and another over the Galapagos. Otherwise a weakly warming pattern was building on the equator from 90W to 120W.
Hi-res Overview: (4/13) Cool water was no longer present along the immediate coast of Peru and slightly along Columbia. Otherwise warmer than normal water was from immediate Ecuador to the Galapagos and then modestly warmer along the equator west of there to the dateline. It was holding compared to days past.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/16) Today's temps were rising again at -0.317. But the overall trend is falling for the last 3 months.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(4/14) Today temps were steady at +0.674 today. Temps have been generally steady the last 6 weeks, but up some over the past 3 months.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (4/16) The model indicates temps were at +1.00 degs on April 1 and are forecast building to +1.15 degrees in early June then fading slowly to +1.05 degs on July 1, fading slightly through the Fall to +0.70 degs in Sept, down to +0.6 degs in Oct and +0.5 in Nov 1, then falling to +0.25 degs
in early Dec and steady into Jan. A weak El Nino like pattern is to hold if not build into July associated with Kelvin Wave #3, then slowly fading through the Fall and Winter of 2019/20 with no more Kelvin Waves forecast. A multiyear warming event is in progress as suggested by this model.
IRI Consensus Plume: The March 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.65 degs today, and are to hold in the +0.75 range into July, then holding at +0.75 through Nov 2019. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (4/16): The daily index was negative today at -7.14 and has been negative the last 7 days but was positive for 7 days before that, and was previously negative for 57 days before that (Feb 4-4/2 other than 3/23 & 3/24). The 30 day average was steady at -1.86 suggesting a fading Active MJO. The 90 day average was steady at -6.12, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern biased towards El Nino (for now).
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (4/16) The index was neutral at -0.01 on 2/14 but has been rising ever since and pushed up to +0.99 on 3/3 (the highest its been in years), then fell some but rose again to +0.47 on 3/28 and was up to +0.85 on 4/14, down to +0.78 today. Still, it is not anywhere near as strongly positive as it should be if El Nino were developing. It suggest only ENSO neutral conditions.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (4/14):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUDL0nQsuEE
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

Powerline Productions New Movie Preimer - Next Level - Friday (11/9) at 7 PM. Details here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/forecast/NextLevel.html

- - -

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Read all the latest news and happenings on our News Page here

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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