Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.7 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 15.7 secs from 203 degrees. Water temp 76.1 (Barbers Pt), 76.3 (Pearl Harbor 233), 75.9 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 5.4 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 9.1 secs from 18 degrees. Water temp 76.3 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 5.0 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 3.6 ft @ 9.0 secs from 347 degrees. Water temp 75.6 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.3 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 14.1 secs from 190 degrees. Wind southeast at 2 kts. Water temperature 58.3 degs, 56.8 (Harvest 071), 60.1 (Topanga 103), 58.8 (Long Beach 215), 61.2 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 61.2 (Del Mar 153), 61.5 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.4 ft @ 14.5 secs from 200 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.4 ft @ 6.4 secs from 269 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.8 ft @ 13.8 secs from 202 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.5 ft @ 13.9 secs from 197 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.2 ft @ 15.1 secs from 206 degrees. Water temperature was 61.9 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.8 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 2.8 ft @ 14.8 secs from 191 degrees. Wind south at 6-10 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and north at 2 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801589) and NNE at 6 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 54.0 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 55.6 (San Francisco 46026), 54.9 (SF Bar 142), 54.0 (1801589) and 55.0 (Monterey Bay 46092).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Friday (4/19) in North and Central CA waves were waist to chest high and lined up but a bit warbled from south fog wind. Protected breaks were flat and textured from south wind. At Santa Cruz surf was chest to shoulder high and lined up and clean with good form. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to waist high and lined up and clean with decent form. Central Orange County had waves at head high and super lined up and pretty closed out with some texture on top making it crumble. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at head high on the peak of the sets and lined up and clean with good form. North San Diego had waves at up to chest high on the sets and lined up and clean but a bit closed out with with some light texture on top. Oahu's North Shore had waves at waist high with some sideshore warble and pretty mushed though local wind was light early. The South Shore had waves at chest to shoulder high on the sets and lined up with good form and clean. The East Shore was getting northerly windswell at waist to near chest high and chopped from brisk trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Friday (4/19) the North Shore of Hawaii was getting no swell of interest. California was getting the end of swell from a gale that developed in the upper reaches of the Southeast Pacific Mon-Wed (4/10) generating 33-34 ft seas aimed due north. And the South Shore of Hawaii was getting sideband swell from a gale that developed while tracking under New Zealand into the Central South Pacific Wed-Thurs (4/11) with 35-40 ft seas aimed east. And small swell from that system was just starting to show in California too. A small system developed under New Zealand Tues-Wed (4/17) with 31 ft seas aimed mostly east but only over a small fetch area. Doubtful any swell to result. And another formed southeast of New Zealand on Fri (4/19) producing 37 ft seas over a small area aimed east-northeast but is to dissipate on Sat (4/20). Possible small swell to result aimed mostly east. A weak system is to track northeast from under New Zealand Sun-Mon (4/22) with 28 ft seas aimed northeast. Weak odds of something result from that. Then nothing else is forecast. And nothing is forecast in the North Pacific. The seasonal transition from Winter to Summer appears to be complete.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Friday (4/19) no meaningful weather systems of interest have occurred with no swell in the water.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Sat AM northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast building to 15+ kts for all of North and Central CA.
Sun AM (4/20) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA early. No change in the afternoon.
Mon AM (4/21) northwest winds to be lifting north concentrated at 125+ kts off Cape Mendocino with north winds 10 kts from Pt Arena southward and 10 kts for all of Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20 kts off North CA but only 10 kts nearshore and southwest 5-10 kts for Central CA.
Tues AM (4/22) a light northwesterly flow is forecast at 5-10 kts for North Ca early and 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North and Central CA.
Wed AM (4/23) generic northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North and Central CA early. Northwest winds hold at 10 kts for Cape Mendocino in the afternoon but build to 15 kts from Pt Reyes southward to Pt Conception.
Thurs AM (4/24) low pressure approaches the Pacific Northwest with northwest winds 5 kts for North CA early and 5-10 kts for Central CA but up to 15-20 kts over Pt Conception. In the afternoon a front impacts North CA with southwest winds 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 5 kts for Pt Reyes to Monterey Bay and 15 kts south of there. Rain developing for North CA early pushing south through the day to Pt Arena in the afternoon and the Golden Gate overnight. Snow for higher elevations of Tahoe.
Fri AM (4/25) northwest winds to be 10 kts for all of North and Central CA and high pressure building in behind. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North Ca and 15-20 kts for Central CA. Rain pushing south to Monterey Bay early then dissipating. Snow for the Sierra through the day.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 8, 8, 12 and 6 inches all on Thurs-Fri (4/25-4/26). Odds very low of this actually happening

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Level 10.00 ft today building to 12,000 ft starting 4/21 then starting to fall later on 4/22 falling to 5,000 ft 4/25 then rebuilding to 8.500 ft 4/27 and beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Friday AM (4/17) the jet was split with winds in the influential southern branch forming a trough just southeast of New Zealand being fed by 140 kts winds offering some support for gale formation. but east of there the jet was falling southeast at 140 kts with no troughs indicated offering no support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the New Zealand trough is to quickly fade on Sat (4/20) offering nothing with a bit of a ridge pushing south over the Southeast Pacific offering no support for gale formation. But on Sun (4/21) a tight almost pinched trough is to develop under New Zealand lifting well north into early Tues (4/23) offering some support for gale formation. But the big ridge is to hold in the east. Beyond 72 hours starting Tues (4/23) a solid ridge is to be controlling most of the South Pacific east of New Zealand and winds pretty weak offering nothing. Wind speeds in the jet are to pick up on Thurs-Fri (4/26) but displaced pretty well south running most east on the 60S latitude lined across the width of the South Pacific with no meaningful troughs indicated offering no support for gale formation.

Surface Analysis
On Fri AM (4/19) swell from a gale that developed in the Southeast Pacific was past it's prime but still hitting CA (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a gale that tracked east under New Zealand was hitting Hawaii and starting to show on the buoys in California (see Another New Zealand Gale below).

And a gale developed southeast of the New Zealand Thurs PM (4/18) producing west winds at 40-45 kts with seas building from 25 ft at 54S 173W aimed east. On Fri AM (4/19) west winds built to 50 kts over a small area aimed east with seas 37 ft at 60.25S 161W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be racing east with west winds 45 kts and seas 33 ft at 62.5S 145.5W aimed east. The gale to quickly dissipate from there. Perhaps small swell to be radiating north. Something to monitor.

And a small system is projected developing just south of New Zealand on Sun AM (4/21) producing southwest winds at 40 kts with seas building from 24 ft at 53S 163E aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds to be 35-45 kts with seas 29 ft at 51.5S 176E aimed northeast. On Mon AM (4/22) fetch is to be lifting northeast at 30-35 kts with seas 26 ft at 50S 180W aimed northeast. in the evening fetch is to continue lifting northeast at 35 kts with seas 29 ft at 47.25S 172.75W aimed northeast. Fetch fading Tues AM (4/23) with seas fading from 26 ft at 45S 166W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Southeast Pacific Gale
A gale developed in the upper reaches of the Southeast Pacific on Mon PM (4/8) generating a fairly broad fetch of south winds at 35 kts with seas building from 25 ft at 51S 147W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (4/9) south winds built to 45 kts over a solid area aimed due north with seas building to 29 ft at 49S 140W aimed north. In the evening south winds were fading in coverage from 40- 45 kts with seas 34 ft at 46S 138W aimed due north. Fetch faded on Wed AM (4/10) from 30-35 kts and seas fading from 30 ft at 45S 135W aimed due north. In the evening south fetch was fading from 25-30 kts with seas 25 ft at 40S 130W aimed northeast. Something to monitor given this gales far north position and aim directly at California.

Southern CA: Swell fading on Fri (4/19) from 2.4 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (4/20) fading from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 193 degrees

North CA: Swell fading on Fri (4/19) from 2.5 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (4/20) fading from 2.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

Another New Zealand Gale
On Tues AM (4/9) a storm was tracking east under the Tasman Sea with west winds 50 kts ands seas 39 ft at 55.75S 148E aimed east. In the evening the gale was pushing under New Zealand with 45 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 57.25W 159E aimed east. On Wed AM (4/10) the gale tracked east-southeast with 40 kt west winds and seas 32 ft at 60S 170E aimed east. On Wed PM (4/10) additional fetch developed over the same general area at 55 kts from the west producing seas 35 ft at 62.25S 178.25W aimed east and southeast. Fetch was pushing east on Thurs AM (4/11) at 50 kts from the east with seas 41 ft over a tiny area at 65.5S 164.25W aimed east. In the evening fetch was racing east at 35-40 kts with seas 35 ft at 65.5S 148W aimed east. Fetch fading Fri AM (4/12) at 35 kts but over a broad area from the southwest with seas 31 ft at 62S 138.25W aimed east. Fetch was fading in the evening from 30 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 29 ft at 59.5S 128.75W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Oahu:Swell fading Fri AM (4/19) from 1.5 ft @ 15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) early. Residuals on Sat AM (4/20) fading from 1.3 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0 ft). Dribbles on Sun AM (4/21) fading from 1.2 ft @ 14-15 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 210-215 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on at sunset on Fri (4/19) building to 1.1 ft @ 19-20 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell building Sat (4/20) to 1.6 ft @ 18 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell peaking on Sun (4/21) at 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-day (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell holding Mon (4/22) at 2.1 ft @ 15-16 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (4/23) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction:200 degrees moving to 195 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (4/20) to 1.4 ft @ 19 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell peaking on Sun (4/21) at 1.7 ft @ 17 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell holding Mon (4/22) at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (4/23) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction:200 degrees moving to 195 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. Winter is over.

La Nina Arrives
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Starting to Fade
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But now cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/18) 5 day average winds were moderate east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and modest west over the Central Pacific and weak west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (4/15) Stale data - Today a mix of modest east and west anomalies with filling the KWGA today. The forecast indicates mostly moderate east anomalies moving east through the KWGA and holding through 4/25 then weaker through the end of the model run on 4/31. Perhaps some west anomalies to appear on the dateline 4/28 through the end of the model run.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (4/14) Stale data - A neutral MJO was over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates a neutral MJO pattern holding on days 5-15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts the same thing.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (4/15) Stale data - The statistical model depicts the Active signal was very weak over the Central Maritime Continent today. The forecast indicates it is to move to the West Pacific over the next 15 days at very weak status. The dynamic model indicates the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (4/17) A weak Active MJO pattern (wet air) was over the KWGA today. The Active MJO (wet air) is to track east filling the KWGA through 4/27. After that the Active Phase is to move east with a moderate Inactive Phase building over the West KWGA 5/2 filling it through 5/17 then moving east of it on 5/22 with a very weak Active pattern (wet air) developing and holding through the end of the model run on 5/27.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/18) Today no MJO signal was indicated with east anomalies in control of the KWGA. East anomalies are to build in the KWGA 4/20-4/28 at strong status then fading. Weak west anomalies are to develop in the far west KWGA 5/3 into 5/14 with a weak Active MJO signal appearing tracking east through the KWGA 5/9 through the end of the model run on 5/16.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/19) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
The model depicts a weak Inactive Phase fading fast over the KWGA today with weak east anomalies in control. This model indicates the Inactive Phase is to be gone on 4/21 with weak east anomalies holding into 4/27. A weak Active Phase is to develop 4/19 pushing east filling the KWGA through 5/21 with weak west anomalies 4/29-5/20. After that a weak Inactive Phase is to set up controlling the KWGA 5/13-6/10 but with weak west anomalies in control. After that an Active MJO is forecast 6/6 through the end of the model run on 7/17 with very weak west anomalies in control. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is fading over the KWGA centered at 165W with the second contour gone. The final contour is to fade on 5/17. Our supposedly strong El Nino is fading out. The low pressure bias is to move back to the Indian Ocean starting 5/1 building there through the end of the model run with high pressure starting to show filling the Dateline are east to California 6/14 and beyond.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (4/19) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was rebuilding some to the east tot 170W. The 28 deg isotherm line was gone east of 150W. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was shallow but stable in the east at 25m deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were up to +2 degs in on small pocket with +1 anomalies west to 130W while getting compressed to the surface. Neutral to +1 deg anomalies were deeper from the dateline west. El Nino is gone subsurface. A large pool of cold anomalies at -4 degs were down at 120m deep at 155W to 125W reaching east and weaker to a point along Ecuador at -1 degs and filling the entire Equatorial Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/3 indicates cold water was in control from Ecuador west to 125W at the surface and at depth to 160E. The last remnant warm surface water from El Nino was getting pushed west by trades starting at 120W and points west of there. Cold water was filling the entire equatorial Pacific thermocline below it. La Nina is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (4/8) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 to -10 cms over the entire equatorial Pacific. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (4/8) cold water was filling the Equatorial Pacific and -0.5 to -1.5 degs over the entire equatorial Pacific. El Nino is gone from the subsurface perspective and now clearly turning to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/18) The latest images depict a moderate warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to 160W except with a developing cooler pool just off of Peru and Ecuador reaching west to the Galapagos but not further west. There is still a solid El Nino signal present but with the beginnings of a cold La Nina signal are starting to emerge from the depths up to the oceans surface along Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/18): Water temps were falling along the coast of Peru and Ecuador west to the Galapagos. Warming was solidly present west of there to the dateline.
Hi-res Overview: (4/18) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from just west of the Galapagos to the dateline with a cool tongue developing while extending west from the coast of Ecuador. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but being weakened by a building La Nina signal.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/19) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling again hard at -0.951 after falling to -0.565 on 4/1 and have been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/19) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rising at +0.754 degs after falling to +0.5 degs on 4/15 and then falling from +1.120 (4/3) degrees. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12. Weekly OISST are +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1). Monthly Data is +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.15 March. The 3 month ONI is +1.8 for the 3 month period DJF and +2.0 ft for NDJ (bare minimal Super El Nino status). All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan and +1.65 in Feb then down to +1.0 degs mid-April.
Forecast (4/19) - Temps to fall to 0.0 mid-May and -2.15 degs in Nov/Dec 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to only -1.4 degs. According to this version of the model we are past the peak of a strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The March 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +0.760 degs today and its the 11th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to +0.326 in April (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there down to -1.011 in Sept and holding there. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -1.097 in Sept and the Statistic down to -1.021 in Oct.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (4/19) the Daily Index was rising at 12.18 today. The daily SOI turned mostly positive on 2/20 after a 28 day negative peaking down at -46.54 on 2/9. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was falling some at -5.16, Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was falling some at -7.33. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/19 and hard negative in 10/21-10/23 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/23-2/24 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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