Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.4 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 12.7 secs from 253 degrees. Water temp 76.6 (Barbers Pt), 76.1 (Pearl Harbor 233), 76.8 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 5.6 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 3.5 ft @ 10.3 secs from 291 degrees. Water temp 75.7 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 6.4 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 5.0 ft @ 12.4 secs from 335 degrees. Water temp 75.4 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.3 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 16.5 secs from 190 degrees. Wind northeast at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 60.1 degs, 55.8 (Harvest 071), 58.1 (Topanga 103), 59.2 (Long Beach 215), 61.7 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 61.7 (Del Mar 153), 61.9 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 6.3 ft @ 6.7 secs from 319 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.5 ft @ 6.6 secs from 280 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.4 ft @ 17.3 secs from 214 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.8 ft @ 17.0 secs from 203 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.2 ft @ 17.0 secs from 208 degrees. Water temperature was 60.8 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 9.6 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 7.2 ft @ 8.0 secs from 321 degrees. Wind northwest at 20-23 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NNW at 14-16 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801589) and NNW at 8 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 51.6 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 54.9 (San Francisco 46026), 56.3 (SF Bar 142), 54.1 (1801589) and 55.2 (Monterey Bay 46092).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (4/21) in North and Central CA waves were waist to chest high and lined up but warbled with small whitecaps from northwest wind. Protected breaks were waist to chest high with some shoulder high sets and somewhat lined up but mushed and warbled from northwest wind. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high with some chest high peaks and lined up and clean with some texture on top pretty early with decent form but soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to waist high and lined up and clean with decent form but soft with high fog early. Central Orange County had waves at chest to shoulder high on the sets and lined up with texture on top making it a bit soft and northerly winds starting to pick up early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at head high on the peak of the sets and lined up and clean with good form but long waits in between sets. North San Diego had waves at waist high with some chest high sets and nicely and lined up and clean with no real wind early. Oahu's North Shore had waves at head high on the sets and line dup with semi decent form but somewhat mushed with a little warble intermixed but light wind early. The South Shore had waves at waist high or so on the sets and lined up with good form and real clean. The East Shore was getting northerly windswell at waist to chest high and chopped from brisk east-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (4/21) the North Shore of Hawaii was getting northerly windswell but it was rideable. California and the South Shores of the Hawaiian Islands were getting swell from a gale that developed while tracking under New Zealand into the Central South Pacific Wed-Thurs (4/11) with 35-40 ft seas aimed east. A small system developed under New Zealand Tues-Wed (4/17) with 31 ft seas aimed mostly east but only over a small fetch area. Doubtful any swell to result. And another formed southeast of New Zealand on Fri (4/19) producing 37 ft seas over a small area aimed east-northeast then dissipated on Sat (4/20) while racing east. Possible small swell to result for California down into South America. A weak system tracked northeast under New Zealand Sun-Mon (4/22) with 27 ft seas aimed northeast. Low odds of something resulting from that. Beyond nothing meaningful is forecast. And nothing is forecast for the North Pacific. The seasonal transition from Winter to Summer is complete.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Sunday (4/21) no meaningful weather systems of interest have occurred with no swell in the water.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Mon AM (4/21) northwest winds to be lifting north concentrated at 25+ kts off Cape Mendocino with north winds 10 kts from Pt Arena southward and 10 kts for all of Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20 kts off North CA but south at 10 kts nearshore and southwest 5-10 kts for Central CA.
Tues AM (4/22) northwesterly winds to be 20 kts off the North CA coast but with south winds 5-10 kts nearshore for all of North CA and southwest 5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA and Central CA.
Wed AM (4/23) generic northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts for North and Central CA early. Northwest winds build to 15 kts for Cape Mendocino in the afternoon but south 5 kts for Central CA.
Thurs AM (4/24) low pressure approaches the Pacific Northwest with northwest winds 5 kts for Cape Mendocino and 15 kts south of there and 10 kts for for Central CA. In the afternoon a front impacts North CA with west winds 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 5 kts for Pt Reyes to Monterey Bay and 15-20 kts south of there. Light rain developing for North CA mid-AM holding through the day and evening.
Fri AM (4/25) northwest winds to be 10 kts for all of North Ca and northwest 15-20 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay with high pressure building out at sea. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts for North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA. Light rain for Cape Mendocino holding through the day.
Sat (4/26) northwest winds and high pressure take control at 20-25 kts early for all of North and Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20+ kts for North CA and 25 kts for Central CA.
Sun AM (4/27) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA early and 20 kts south of Monterey Bay. No change in the afternoon.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 7, 7, 11 and 7 inches all on Fri through Sat AM (4/26-4/27). Odds of this actually happening are very low.

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Level 12,000 ft today falling on Mon (4/22) to the 10,000 ft range then falling to 5,000 ft 4/26 holding on 4/27 then rebuilding to 11.000 ft 4/30 and beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday AM (4/21) the jet was split with winds in the influential southern branch forming a trough just south of New Zealand being fed by 120 kts winds offering some minimal support for gale formation. But east of there the jet was falling southeast at 110 kts or less reaching down to 63S with no troughs indicated offering no support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the New Zealand trough is to push east into Tues (4/23) but mostly pinched offering limited support for low pressure development with a ridge developing east of there pushing over Antarctic Ice over the Central South Pacific offering nothing. Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs (4/25) another trough is to push south of New Zealand but pretty pinched but clearing the way for a steady stream of winds energy at 130-140 kts pushing east under New Zealand into Sat (4/27) offering some support for gale development. But after that the trough is to start falling south with a ridge under New Zealand on Sun (4/28) reaching down to 63S with winds 90-100 kts offering no support for gale formation with the jet east of there crashing into Antarctica east of 150W.

Surface Analysis
On Sun AM (4/21) swell from a gale that tracked east under New Zealand was fading in Hawaii and slowly building in California (see Another New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a small system is projected developing just south of New Zealand on Sun AM (4/21) producing southwest winds at 40 kts with seas building from 27 ft at 53S 162E aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds to be 35 kts with seas 24 ft at 50S 172E aimed northeast. On Mon AM (4/22) fetch is to be lifting northeast at 30 kts with seas 21 ft at 48S 178E aimed northeast. Doubtful any swell of interest to result.

And theoretically background swell from undetermined source is to arrive in California on Wed (4/24).

Southern CA: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Wed (4/24) building to 2.0 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (4/25) from 2.1 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.0 ft). Residuals on Fri (4/26) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft) Swell Direction: 193 degrees

North CA: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Wed (4/24) building to 2.0 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (4/25) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (4/26) fading from 1.6 ft @ 14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft) Swell Direction: 187 degrees

Another New Zealand Gale
On Tues AM (4/9) a storm was tracking east under the Tasman Sea with west winds 50 kts ands seas 39 ft at 55.75S 148E aimed east. In the evening the gale was pushing under New Zealand with 45 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 57.25W 159E aimed east. On Wed AM (4/10) the gale tracked east-southeast with 40 kt west winds and seas 32 ft at 60S 170E aimed east. On Wed PM (4/10) additional fetch developed over the same general area at 55 kts from the west producing seas 35 ft at 62.25S 178.25W aimed east and southeast. Fetch was pushing east on Thurs AM (4/11) at 50 kts from the east with seas 41 ft over a tiny area at 65.5S 164.25W aimed east. In the evening fetch was racing east at 35-40 kts with seas 35 ft at 65.5S 148W aimed east. Fetch fading Fri AM (4/12) at 35 kts but over a broad area from the southwest with seas 31 ft at 62S 138.25W aimed east. Fetch was fading in the evening from 30 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 29 ft at 59.5S 128.75W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Dribbles on Sun AM (4/21) fading from 1.2 ft @ 14-15 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 210-215 degrees

Southern CA: Swell peaking on Sun (4/21) at 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-day (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell holding Mon (4/22) at 2.1 ft @ 15-16 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (4/23) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction:200 degrees moving to 195 degrees

North CA: Swell peaking on Sun (4/21) at 1.7 ft @ 17 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell holding Mon (4/22) at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (4/23) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction:200 degrees moving to 195 degrees

Weak New Zealand Gale
A gale developed southeast of the New Zealand Thurs PM (4/18) producing west winds at 40-45 kts with seas building from 25 ft at 54S 173W aimed east. On Fri AM (4/19) west winds built to 50 kts over a small area aimed east with seas 37 ft at 60.25S 161W aimed east. In the evening fetch was racing east with west winds 45 kts and seas 33 ft at 62.5S 145.75W aimed east. The gale to quickly dissipated from there. Perhaps small swell to be radiating north. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (4/26) building to 1.2 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell builds on Sat (4/27) to 1.4 ft @ 16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (4/28) from 1.3 ft @ 15 secs (2.0 ft). Residuals on Mon (4/29) fading from 1.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (4/26) building to 1.1 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell builds on Sat (4/27) to 1.4 ft @ 16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (4/28) from 1.4 ft @ 15 secs (2.0 ft). Residuals on Mon (4/29) fading from 1.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 198 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. Winter is over.

La Nina Arrives
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Starting to Fade
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But now cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/20) 5 day average winds were moderate east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light west over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (4/21) Today moderate plus strength east anomalies were filling the KWGA today. The forecast indicates moderate plus strength east anomalies are to hold moving east through the KWGA into 4/29. After that starting 4/30 west anomalies are to move into the KWGA building to strong status 5/1 holding through the end of the model run on 5/7.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (4/14) Stale data - A neutral MJO was over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates a neutral MJO pattern holding on days 5-15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts the same thing.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (4/15) Stale data - The statistical model depicts the Active signal was very weak over the Central Maritime Continent today. The forecast indicates it is to move to the West Pacific over the next 15 days at very weak status. The dynamic model indicates the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (4/21) A weak Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) was over the KWGA today. The Inactive Phase is to start fading on 5/1 with the Active MJO (wet air) track east filling the KWGA 5/6 holding through 5/21. After that the Active Phase is to move east with a modest Inactive Phase (dry air) building over the West KWGA 5/26 filling it through the end of the model run on 5/31.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/20) Today no MJO signal was indicated with east anomalies in control of the KWGA. East anomalies are to build in the KWGA 4/21-4/28 at near strong status then fading. Weak west anomalies are to develop in the far west KWGA 5/2 into 5/14 with a weak Active MJO signal appearing tracking east through the KWGA 5/7 through the end of the model run on 5/18 with east anomalies developing in the KWGA at the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/21) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
The model depicts a weak Active Phase moving over the West KWGA today but with weak east anomalies in control. This model indicates a weak Active Phase is to continue pushing east filling the KWGA 4/27 through 5/25 with weak west anomalies 4/30-5/25. After that a weak Inactive Phase is to set up controlling the KWGA 5/18-6/12 but with weak west anomalies in control. After that an Active MJO is forecast 6/6 through the end of the model run on 7/19 with very weak west anomalies in control but retrograding west with east anomalies filling everything east of the dateline. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is fading over the KWGA centered at 165W with the second contour gone. The final contour is to fade on 5/17. Our supposedly strong El Nino is fading out. The low pressure bias is to move back to the Indian Ocean starting 5/1 building there through the end of the model run with 2 contours indicated and a high pressure bias starting to show filling the Dateline area east to California 6/14 and beyond.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (4/21) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was rebuilding some to the east to 163W. The 28 deg isotherm line was gone east of 147W. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was shallow but stable in the east at 25m deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were up to +2 degs in one small pocket with +1 anomalies west of there in pockets mostly getting compressed to the surface. Neutral to +1 deg anomalies were deeper from the dateline west. El Nino is gone subsurface. A large pool of cold anomalies at -4 degs were down at 120m deep between 120-170W reaching east and weaker to a point along Ecuador basically filling the entire Equatorial Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/13 indicates cold water was in control from Ecuador west to 125W at the surface and at depth to 160E. The last remnant warm surface water from El Nino was getting pushed west by trades starting at 120W and points west of there. Cold water was filling the entire equatorial Pacific thermocline below it. La Nina is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (4/13) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 to -10 cms over the entire area and a broad pocket developing at -15 cms between 95-125W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (4/13) cold water was filling the Equatorial Pacific at -0.5 to -1.5 degs over the entire equatorial Pacific. El Nino is gone from the subsurface perspective and now clearly turning to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/20) The latest images depict a moderate warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to the dateline and beyond except with a cool pocket just off of Peru and Ecuador reaching west to the Galapagos but no further west. There is still a solid El Nino signal present at the surface but with the beginnings of a cold La Nina signal starting to emerge from the depths up to the oceans surface along Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/20): Water temps were falling along the coast of Peru and Ecuador west to the Galapagos and a little west of there. Warming was solidly present west of there to the dateline.
Hi-res Overview: (4/20) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from just west of the Galapagos to the dateline with a cool tongue developing while extending west from the coast of Ecuador. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but being weakened by a building La Nina signal.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/21) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were down at -0.843 and fell to -0.565 on 4/1 and have been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/21) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rising at +0.831 degs after falling to +0.5 degs on 4/15 and then falling from +1.120 (4/3) degrees. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12. Weekly OISST are +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1). Monthly Data is +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.15 March. The 3 month ONI is +1.8 for the 3 month period DJF and +2.0 ft for NDJ (bare minimal Super El Nino status). All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan and +1.65 in Feb then down to +1.0 degs mid-April.
Forecast (4/21) - Temps to fall to 0.0 mid-May and -1.75 degs in Nov/Dec 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to only -1.4 degs. According to this version of the model we are past the peak of a strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The March 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +0.760 degs today and its the 11th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to +0.326 in April (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there down to -1.011 in Sept and holding there. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -1.097 in Sept and the Statistic down to -1.021 in Oct.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (4/19) the Daily Index was falling at -4.33 today. The daily SOI turned mostly positive on 2/20 after a 28 day negative peaking down at -46.54 on 2/9. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was falling some at -5.60, Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was falling some at -7.45. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/19 and hard negative in 10/21-10/23 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/23-2/24 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24, then falling to -1.57 in March). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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