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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Saturday, May 25, 2019 1:05 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.0 - California & 2.8 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 5/27 thru Sun 6/2

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Windswell Continues for CA
2 N. Zealand Swells in the Water

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Saturday, May 25, 2019 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/ Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 4.1 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 12.8 secs from 202 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.4 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 11.6 secs from 315 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 15.2 secs from 173 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southwest at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 59.0 degs. At Harvest (Buoy 071) swell was 2.3 ft @ 15.7 secs from 192 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.9 ft @ 15.9 secs from 200 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 2.1 ft @ 16.7 secs from 218 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.5 ft @ 14.9 secs from 208 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 11.9 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 9.1 ft @ 8.5 secs from 321 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was northwest at 20-25 kts. Water temp 56.3 degs (042) and 51.1 (013).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (5/25) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing waves at waist to chest high and a bit warbled but with clean surface conditions early. Protected breaks were waist to chest high and soft and a bit warbled but surfable. At Santa Cruz minimal southern hemi swell was occasionally showing producing waves at waist high or so and pretty textured with whitecaps outside the kelp early. In Southern California/Ventura southern hemi swell was producing waves at waist high and pretty heavily textured from southerly wind. In North Orange Co surf was chest to maybe head high and fairly clean and lined up coming from the south but slow. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were waist to chest high and clean but slow. North San Diego had surf at waist high and soft and a bit warbled but with calm local wind. Hawaii's North Shore was getting swell with waves head high to 2 ft overhead on the peak at top breaks and lined up and clean with modest east trades. The South Shore had sets at waist to chest high and clean and lined up but slow. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist to chest high and chopped from east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (5/25) in California a mixture of background New Zealand swell was arriving and buried at exposed breaks buy local northwest windswell. Hawaii was getting the fading remnants of the same background New Zealand swell. On Sun-Wed (5/23) a small gale tracked east from a point just under New Zealand with seas between 33-40 ft offering some smallish swell for Hawaii and California longer term. And another small gale is developing in the Central South Pacific on Sat-Mon (5/27) with seas 34-42 ft possibly offering more swell pushing northeast.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Saturday AM (5/25) windswell was being generated by a pressure gradient produced by the interaction of high pressure at 1028 mbs in the Gulf of Alaska and weak low pressure over Nevada producing north winds at 20-25 kts over North CA and 15 kts down into Central CA and forecast holding all day. Sun AM (5/28) windswell is to be fading with north winds 20-25 kts early over North CA nearshore waters and 15 kts over Central CA fading in coverage but still present at 20 kts over North CA in the evening. On Mon AM (5/27) the gradient is to be fading from 15 kts early over North and Central CA offering no real windswell production capability and holding in the evening. On Tues (5/28) the gradient is to wake up some producing 15-20 kt north winds over North CA producing windswell and 15 kt north winds over Central CA only producing chop.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast other than the above local windswell.

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Saturday (5/25) north winds were 25 kts over North CA and 15-20 kts down into Central CA 25 kts and fading there to 15 kts later while holding up north. Light rain for the Sierra during the day. Sunday (5/26) a weak pressure gradient is to hold with north winds 25 kts over all off North CA and 15 kts north winds over Central CA and holding through the day. Scattered showers are forecast for all of North and Central CA. Snow for the Sierra falling south through the day. Monday (5/27) north winds to be 15 kts for all of North and Central CA holding all day. No rain forecast. Tues (5/28) north winds are forecast at 15 to near 20 kts for all of North and Central CA building to 20 kts later. No rain is forecast. Wednesday (5/29) north winds to be 20+ kts for all of North and Central CA holding Thurs (5/23). Fri (5/31) north winds still continuing for North Ca at 20 kts but fading to 10-15 kts for Central CA. Sat (6/1) north winds to be 20-25 kts for North CAn and 15 kts for Central CA.

Snow forecast for Tahoe for the week ending Sat PM (6/1): 14-15 inches and 4 inches for Mammoth all limited to Sun (5/26).

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (5/25) the jetstream was split with the southern branch lifting north from just south of New Zealand forming a weak trough over the Central South Pacific being fed by only 100-110 kt winds and offering some limited support for gale development over the Central Pacific. East of the trough the jet was exceedingly weak and ridging south at 120W and on the edge of the California swell window actively suppressing gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the same pattern is to hold but with the trough moving east some into late Mon (5/27) being fed by 100 kts winds offering continued limited support for gale development while the weak ridge holds over the Southeast Pacific. By Tues (5/28) the trough is to start being reinforced now relocated to the Southeast Pacific by 90 kt south winds and getting more carved out as a ridge pushes east from under New Zealand. Beyond 72 hours starting Wed (5/29) the trough in the Southeast Pacific is to be fed by 130 kt south winds providing good support for gale development at 125W. But by Thurs (5/30) the trough is to fade fast and move east of the California swell window providing no support for gale development with a weak jetstream flow setting up. And a ridging pattern is to start building in the Central Pacific starting Fri (5/31) pushing south on Sat (6/1) actively suppressing gale production.

Surface Analysis  
A primer gale developed under New Zealand producing small swell that is arriving in California today (see Background New Zealand Swell below). Of more interest was a stronger gale that formed under New Zealand sweeping east (see New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a new gale is forecast building in the Central South Pacific on Sat AM (5/25) with 40 kts southwest winds over a modest area aimed northeast generating 29 seas at 50S 158.5W. Fetch is to track northeast and fragment some at 35-45 kts in pockets with 28 and 30 ft seas near 47S 145W aimed northeast. The gale is to fade Sun AM (5/26) with 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas fading from 31 ft at 46.5S 136.5W aimed northeast and a new gale building right behind the original one with 45 kt southwest winds and seas building from 28 ft at 52S 159.5W aimed northeast. In the evening only the new fetch is to remain with 50-55 kt south winds pushing northeast with 41 ft seas over a tiny area at 51.5S 151W aimed northeast. The gale is to track northeast while fading with 45 kt south winds and seas fading from 42 ft over a small area at 49S 144W aimed northeast. Fetch is to fade in the evening from barely 45 kts over a tiny area aimed northeast with 39 ft seas at 48S 137W aimed northeast. fetch is to fade Tues AM (5/28) from barely 40 kts with seas fading from 34 ft at 47.5S 129.5W aimed east-northeast. The gale is to fade from there. Something to monitor.

 

Background New Zealand Swell
A gale built just south of New Zealand on Wed (5/15) producing 40 kt southwest winds and seas 30 ft at 51S 168E aimed northeast. In the evening the gale was holding with 40 kt southwest winds over a smaller area and seas 33 ft 49S 172E aimed northeast. The gale faded after that. Small swell is tracking northeast.

South California: Expect swell arrival on Sat (5/25) building to 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Sun (5/26) at 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (5/27) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 220 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (5/25) building to 1.6 ft @ 16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading Sun (5/26) at 1.6 ft @ 15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading after that. Swell Direction: 220 degrees

 

New Zealand Gale
A gale started developing just south of New Zealand on Sun AM (5/19) with 40 kt southwest winds and seas building from 31 ft at 49.5S 175E aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was building in coverage at 40 kts from the southwest with seas 33 ft at 47.5S 174W aimed northeast (216 degs Scal and shadowed, 214 degs NCal and unshadowed). Fetch was fading Mon AM (5/20) from the southwest at 35 kts over a small area with seas 31 ft at 45S 167W aimed northeast. In the evening additional fetch was building at 40-45 kts from the southwest over a small area with seas 29 ft at 43.5S 160W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (5/21) fetch was holding while falling southeast some at 40-45 kts from the south and southwest with 31 ft seas at 43S 158W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch held at 40-45 kts from the southwest with 35 ft sea at 46S 148W aimed northeast (200 degrees SCal and unshadowed, 199 degrees NCal and unshadowed). Fetch held at 40 kts from the southwest on Wed AM (5/22) with seas 31 ft over a solid area at 44S 153W aimed northeast (203 degs SCal and unshadowed, 201 degs NCal and shadowed). The gale is to fade in the evening with 35 kts south-southwest winds over a solid area aimed northeast with 28-30 ft seas at 40.5N 139W aimed northeast. The gale collapsed Thurs AM (5/23) with 30-35 kts southwest winds fading in coverage and seas fading from 27 ft at 43S 134W aimed east. Swell is pushing northeast.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sat (5/25) building to 2.3 ft @ 18 secs later (4.0 ft). Swell peaking on Sun (5/26) at 3.0 ft @ 16 secs (4.5-5.0 ft). Swell fading some on Mon (5/27) at 3.0 ft @ 14-15 secs early (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading on Tues (5/28) 2.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0 ft) with secondary energy arriving and building to 1.6 ft @ 17-18 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Secondary swell peaking on Wed (5/29) at 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (5/30) at 2.0 ft @ 13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 192 degrees turning to 180 degrees for the secondary pulse.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (5/27) with swell barely 1.6 ft @ 19 secs at sunset (3.0 ft) and inconsistent. Swell building on Tues (5/28) to 2.5 ft @ 17-18 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell continues upwards on Wed (5/29) to 3.1 ft @ 16-17 secs later (5.0 ft). Swell holding Thurs (5/30) at 3.1 ft @ 16 secs (4.5-5.0 ft) early. Swell fading on Fri (5/31) from 2.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading Sat (6/1) from 2.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 203-210 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (5/27) with swell barely 1.3 ft @ 19 secs at sunset (2.5 ft) and inconsistent. Swell building on Tues (5/28) to 2.1 ft @ 17 secs (3.5 ft). Swell continues upwards on Wed (5/29) at 2.3 ft @ 16 secs early (3.5 ft) with additional swell building to 2.0 ft @ 18 secs later (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell holding Thurs (5/30) at 2.1 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft) and additional energy at 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Combined swell fading on Fri (5/31) from 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Sat (6/1) from 1.6 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 201-213 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

North windswell is to start building on Wed (5/29) with north winds 20-25 kts over North CA and 20 kts down over all of Central CA producing raw modest sized windswell at exposed breaks. limited to Pt Conception. On Thurs (5/3) the gradient is to fade some with north winds 20 kts early over North and Central CA producing limited windswell then fading in the afternoon with north winds limited to North CA at 20 kts and 15 kts for Central CA. Friday (5/31) the gradient is to rebuild some with north winds 20-25 kts over North CA waters producing moderate windswell radiating south into Central CA and north winds 15 kts over Central CA holding all day. On Sat (6/1) the gradient is to be fading with north winds 20-25 kts over a small area in North CA early and light winds over Central CA and fading through the day.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Kelvin Wave #3 is Gone - WWB #4 Over and Doing Nothing - La Nina Possible

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and did not stop, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. As of January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then started building some late in Feb associated with another Kelvin Wave (#3).

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2019 = 5.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that weak borderline El Nino condition continue , and assuming a weak ocean-atmospheric coupling holds and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 hold in the +0.8 deg range, there is good probability for slightly enhanced storm production in the South Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere Summer time months. There is slightly increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in slightly increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period. This should be significantly better than the past 2 Summer seasons.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (5/24) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific turning light east over the Central Pacific then turning moderately westerly in the West Pacific. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific but weak west in the Central Pacific and strong westerly in the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (5/25) moderate west anomalies were barely filling the KWGA. The forecast is for west anomalies weakening steadily by 5/26 then fading to neutral in the KWGA a day later as west anomalies move quickly east into the East Pacific by 5/27. A neutral to weak easterly anomaly pattern is to set up in the far West KWGA holding through the end of the model run on 6/1. There is to be decreased support for storm development starting 3 days out.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (5/24) An Inactive MJO pattern was developing in the West KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Inactive Phase moving into the West Pacific and taking over the KWGA at day 5 at moderate strength and weakening while holding in the KWGA through day 15. The dynamic model indicates a variation on the same theme with the Inactive Phase making steady headway into the far West Pacific at day 15, moving slower east than the statistic model suggests. The 2 models are mostly in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (5/25) The statistical model depicts a modest Active Phase of the MJO over the East Atlantic, and is forecast to push east into the Central Indian Ocean at day 15 and becoming weak. The GEFS model suggests a variation on the same theme but with the Active Phase making it only to the West Indian Ocean, then collapsing and dissipating.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (5/25) This model depicts a weak Active Phase dissipating in the East Pacific today and is forecast tracking east into Central America on 5/28. A strong Inactive Phase is developing in the West Pacific and is to push east across the Pacific and into Central America on 6/17. A modest Active MJO signal is to build over the West Pacific 6/10 pushing east to Central America at the end of the model run on 7/4. A weak Inactive Phase to follow building over the West Pacific 7/4.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (5/24) This model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was all but gone in the KWGA today with solid west anomalies still filling the KWGA. The forecast has the Active Phase tracking east and no longer filling the bulk of the KWGA on 5/27. A weak Inactive Phase is to push into the West KWGA on 5/29 tracking east with weak east anomalies in the KWGA 5/30-6/3 then weak west anomalies are to start rebuilding 6/7 filling the KWGA and holding through the end of the model run on 6/21.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (5/23) This model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was fading fast over the dateline today and is forecast to be out of the KWGA on 5/28 with west anomalies holding in the KWGA. A moderate Inactive Phase of the MJO sets up 5/25 in the West Pacific building east and filling the KWGA through 6/27 but with very weak west anomalies in the KWGA near the dateline from 6/8 onward. A modest Active Phase is to develop 6/26 building east through 8/5 with weak west anomalies in the KWGA. A weak Inactive Phase is to follow 8/8 through the end of the model run on 8/22 with weak west anomalies fading out but not east anomalies forecast. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines is in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. The second contour line is to fade on 6/26 and the remaining single remaining contour line is to fade on 8/21 while starting to rebuild in the Indian Ocean starting 8/10. It looks like La Nina is trying to develop in the Fall. This model indicates that a tendency towards El Nino was previously in control during the Fall of 2018, but has been steadily fading since then and is to continue a steady decline into mid-August, then possibly shifting to the Indian Ocean then. Basically we are moving from a pattern biased towards El Nino to one biased towards ENSO neutral if not La Nina.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (5/25) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs over a small area reaching east to 156E while the 29 degs isotherm was creeping east to 156W today. The 28 deg isotherm line had retrograded west to 160W mid-Nov into late Feb. But it made a major push east starting 3/16 from 150W and reached Ecuador on 5/5, but started retrograding after that and today was steady at 140W. It appears Kelvin Wave #3 was nearly done erupting in the East Pacific. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing into Ecuador 30 meters down. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire subsurface Pacific at +1 degs from the surface to 150 meters down (deepest on the dateline). There was no embedded stronger/warmer pockets in that flow. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 5/18 indicates warm water from Kelvin Wave #3 was filling the equatorial Pacific from 155E eastward at +1 degs reaching east to 115W. There was no evidence a Kelvin Wave was yet developing from WWB #4 that occurred from 5/1-5/26. A small pocket of cool water was drawing up from depth to the surface in the east at 110W. A previous stream of warm water flowing into the far West Pacific at 140E was gone. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (5/18) Positive anomalies were all but gone over the equatorial Pacific except with one 1 small area between 150E to 170W (West Pacific) attributable to a WWB that occurred there 5/1-5/26. From this data it looks like the Kelvin Wave #3 has dissipated and maybe Kelvin Wave #4 was developing.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (5/24) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate warm temps were building from 10S to 20N on the equator from Ecuador to the dateline. Warming was very pronounced from Peru up to Ecuador and up to Mexico west to 105W. Otherwise temps on the equator were slightly warmer than normal compared to recent days west of there. There is some weak indication of a El Nino but nothing strong.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (5/23): A previous cooling trend was redeveloping today from Peru tracking northwest to the Galapagos. Warming was from 100W to 105W then weaker out to 160W on the equator. Otherwise weak warming was over the Central equatorial Pacific.
Hi-res Overview: (5/23) Warmer than normal water was from just off Peru up to Central America west over the Galapagos 20 degrees north and south of the equator continuing west of there to the dateline. It was holding compared to days past.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/25) Today's temps were rising fast at +1.089. Overall the trend is steady.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(5/25) Today temps were steady today at +0.457 today. Temps have been generally steady the last week.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (5/25) The model indicates temps were +0.75 degs in early May and are to hold till June 1 then falling to +0.45 in July and holding into October, then fading to +0.15 in Dec 1 then rising to +0.25 degs on Fed 1, 2020. A weak El Nino like pattern is to hold into early Fall, then slowly fading through the later Fall and Winter of 2019/20 with no more Kelvin Waves forecast. A multiyear warming event is weakly in progress as suggested by this model.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.70 degs today, and are to hold in the +0.65 range into October, then fading to +0.60 through Dec 2019. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (5/25): The daily index was negative today at -12.54, negative the past 7 days. The 30 day average was falling some at -4.76 today suggesting a steady Active MJO. The 90 day average was steady at -5.06, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern biased towards El Nino (for now).
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (4/23) There has been no update recently. At that time the index was neutral at -0.01 on 2/14 but has been rising ever since and pushed up to +0.99 on 3/3 (the highest its been in years), then fell some but started rising again and was up to +1.10 today. It is approaching El Nino territory but still indicted mostly ENSO neutral conditions.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


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Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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