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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: June 5, 2005 5:56 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
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Swell Potential Rating = 1.7 - California & 4.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 6/6 thru Sun 6/12
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Utility swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of Utility swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Fiji Swell Hits Hawaii
Swell #2S To Follow

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Sunday (6/5) Northern CA surf was chest high and blown out early. South facing breaks were thigh high and clean. Central California was chest to head high with over head sets at the best breaks with decent winds early. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were mainly small though best breaks were up to chest high. The LA area southward into Orange County was waist high to chest high. Southward to San Diego waves were waist high with occasional chest high sets at the best breaks. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was doing well with waves chest to head high with maybe some slightly overhead sets and the best breaks. The East Shore was waist high.

Hawaii is the place to be with nice southern hemi swell pushing in originating from the Tasman Sea with warm water and offshore winds. Northern California was a distant second place with junky windswell and unusually cold upwhelled waters. Windswell to continue for the California's North and Central coasts but generally on the downslide. But Hawaii is well set up, with another bigger swell pushing north expected to arrive late this workweek. In the South Pacific what little storm pattern there was has fallen apart. Get what you can. See details below...

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SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
At the jetstream level on Sunday (6/5) nothing of interest was occurring (animation here). Over the next 72 hours 140 kt winds are to push over the dateline but in a zonal pattern (flat) with no troughs or ridges forecast capable of supporting storm development at the surface.

At the surface today weak low pressure at 992 mbs was fading over the dateline/Aleutian Island intersection after having produced a little fetch aimed towards Hawaii (see below). High pressure at 1028 mbs dominated the East Pacific centered 1200 nmiles west of Cape Mendocino CA and backfilled to the dateline and even further west. Typhoon Nesat was positioned 900 nmiles south of Southern Japan tracking north-northeast with sustained winds 90 kts and seas to 37 ft aimed north. It is expected to hold strength through Tuesday (6/7) then turn northeast and fade out passing east of Japan. It is a product of the latest active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (more details below). (animation here). Over the next 72 hours high pressure at 1024 mbs to dominate the waters off California and north of Hawaii, but it is to get displaced south by low pressure building in the Gulf of Alaska. Low pressure currently over the dateline is to merge with another equally weak low try to develop just off the Kuril's. These two are to move towards the Gulf of Alaska producing generalized low pressure stretching from the dateline into the northern Gulf of Alaska. No swell producing fetch forecast immediately.

 

Mini Hawaiian Pulse
On Friday PM (6/3) a 992 mb low that was migrating northeast from Japan reached the dateline with confirmed winds 40-45 kts centered at 46N 179W aimed south, 30 degrees south of the 328 degree great circle path to Hawaii. By early Saturday (6/4) winds continued at 40 kts moving into the gales southwest sector aimed right down the 328 degree path. Seas built to 20 ft over a tiny area. By Saturday evening this fetch was gone and seas were aimed east of Hawaii. Some barely rideable windswell likely along north facing shores by Wednesday (6/8).

More model data here

 

California Offshore Forecast
Sunday mornings local charts (6/5) depicted solid high pressure at 1028 mbs 1200 nmiles west of Cape Mendocino, CA holding stationary. Weak low pressure was over north Nevada, helping to set up the usual pressure gradient off the North California coast. North winds at 25 kts were positioned a bit off Cape Mendocino extending well south of Pt Conception. This same basic pattern is to hold through Monday (6/6) then moving further south as the high offshore gets shoved south by low pressure pushing into the Gulf of Alaska. Likewise the core of the winds are to track south taking up a position centered off
Pt Conception by Tuesday through Thursday (6/9). As the Gulf low fades next weekend the high is to drift back north and the gradient is to move again off Cape Mendocino and rebuild.

The 5 Day wind forecast is now included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.

 

South Pacific

Overview
On Sunday (6/5) the jetstream continued with the big ridge pushing south to Antarctica from Tasmania east to nearly Chile. No support for storm development suggested (animation here). Over the next 72 hours a bit of a trough is to open up east of New Zealand with some 130 kt winds feeding into it by Thursday (6/9). But east of that strong winds are to continue pushing into Antarctica.

At the surface today strong high pressure at 1028 mbs had moved to the eastern South Pacific, providing a little space east of New Zealand for the remnants of the storm that developed there earlier in the weekend. Over the next 72 hours the high is to rebuild to 1032 mbs keeping a lid on any storm development there. But in the west no high pressure expected, but no organized low pressure either. No swell producing fetch forecast (animation here).

More model data here

 

Fiji Storm
(We're including this mainly for the benefit of Fiji and because there's nothing else to forecast.)
Swell Generation Potential
This started out as a really impressive storm under Australia but quickly faded, and by the time the oceans surface started getting really agitated the core winds had already dropped off. But the models suggested those seas were to track north into the Tasman Sea with additional fetch acting on them to add more energy, though not as strong as the initial fetch. That sort of was happening, but nowhere near as strong as was originally forecast. Based on a mixture of confirmed and forecast data, a good amount of swell is to track northeast up through the Tasman Sea towards Fiji. Hawaii will get some fun size surf from whatever survives the shadow. If anything North California has a better chance of seeing some swell than South CA, but even that is splitting hairs. Impulse class potential at best there.

Surf Forecast
Hawaii: Swell slowly backing down with swell 2.6 ft @ 14 secs on Monday early (6/6) (3.0-3.5 ft faces) fading through Wednesday (6/8) as period drops to 11 secs. Swell Direction: 216-220 degrees

California is well down the road and will suffer a variety of setbacks including a small window to shoot the swell through (Tasman Sea), then getting shadowed by the Fiji Island chain, and then what survives that has a very long journey to cover before reaching the coast (6035-7509 nmiles). Forerunners expected to hit starting early Sunday (6/5) with period at 20 secs building slowly and peaking late Monday (6/6) through Tuesday evening (6/7) with swell 1.0-1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs. Residuals through Thursday (6/9) at 1.3-1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2 ft faces), then fading on Friday (6/10) with period down to 13-14 secs. Lucky if it's rideable. Swell Direction 228-235 degrees

 

Chilean Pulse (South CA)
On Saturday AM (5/28) a new 944 mb storm developed in the far Southeastern Pacific off Chile sitting in the upper trough there. It had confirmed winds of 40-45 kts aimed north but poorly organized by the evening and was looking even less organized Sunday AM (5/29). By Monday AM (5/30) pressure was 952 mbs with confirmed winds surprisingly up to 50 kts at 58S 103W aimed north-northwest up the 175 degree great circle path to Southern CA. But by the evening it faded to 35-40 kts. Seas built briefly to 27 ft at 55S 107W.

This should be good for a small pulse of south-southeast swell at the right breaks in Southern California. A second pulse is to arrive Monday (6/6) with swell building to 3 ft @ 15-16 secs late in the day (4.0-4.5 ft). Residuals expected on Tuesday (6/7) at 2.6 ft @ 14 secs (3.0-3.5 ft) and hanging on in the 2.6 ft @ 13-14 secs range (3 ft faces) through Thursday (6/9). Swell Direction 175-180 degrees.

Northern California is less clear cut, mainly because of the very steep southerly angle which will likely cut down the size at whatever breaks it does make it to. Rough data suggests swell to rebound to 2.2 ft @ 16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft faces) starting late Monday (6/6) fading through Wednesday (6/8). Only the most south fading breaks to see anything from this swell though and even that is not guaranteed. Swell Direction: 175-180 degrees

 

Swell #2S - Tiny New Zealand Storm (Hawaii)
Some fetch from a storm that pushed from the Tasman Sea across New Zealand started to redevelop just along the eastern New Zealand coast late Thursday (6/2) with pressure 980 mbs. By Friday AM (6/3) pressure dropped to 976 mbs with winds on the west side of the low confirmed up to 45-50 kts over a tiny area centered just south of Chatham Island (46S 178W) aimed up the 195 degree path to Hawaii and the 215-218 degree path to California. Seas were building. In the evening pressure held with winds continuing solid at 45-50 kts in roughly the same location just positioned a few degree north. Seas were modeled at 29 ft over a tiny area centered at 42S 177W.

Early Saturday (6/4) the low drifted east with pressure up to 980 mbs while the fetch started fading at 40-45 kts over a tiny area a little further north located at 40S 177W. Winds were aimed well at Hawaii up the 195 degree path and California up the 220 degree paths. Seas built to 30 ft centered at 40S 177W. In the evening the low was fading with pressure at 984 mbs while a tiny fetch of barely 40 kt winds continued over Chatham Island. Seas were modeled at 29 ft centered at 37S 174W and were fading fast.

The fetch in this system tracked northeast as it moved from the west quadrant into the storms north quadrant, allowing it's winds to act on already agitated seas and providing a little bit more push to the resulting swell. Still, this was a very small fetch area limiting it's swell generation potential. At this time there's some hope for a decent swell for Hawaii due to their relative proximity to this tiny fetch (3636-3964) but less for California due to decay as the swell makes the long journey northeast towards the coast (5267-5577).

Hawaii: Expect a solid dose of swell from this system starting early on Thursday (6/9) with period at 17-18 secs and size tiny but building through the day reaching 3 ft @ 17 secs by sunset (4-5 ft faces). Size to be building more through the morning Friday (6/10) and be maxing by mid-afternoon with swell 4.6 ft @ 16 secs (6.5-7.5 ft faces - up to 8-9 ft a breaks with good bathymetry) and size continuing up even a little more. Swell to peak overnight into first light Saturday (6/11) with pure swell 4.7 ft @ 15 secs (7 ft faces - 9 ft at best breaks). Size to continue solid through mid-afternoon, the start heading down as period drops off. Rideable energy to continue into Sunday (6/12) with swell 3.6 ft @ 13 secs but heading down (4.0-4.5 ft faces). 11-12 sec residuals to continue on Monday (6/13) but dropping steadily. Swell Direction: 195-197 degrees

South California: Expect swell arrival starting Sunday (6/12) near sunrise with period at 17-18 secs and size tiny if even noticeable. Size building to rideable by sunset as period moves to 17 secs solid. Swell to continue up on Monday (6/13) with period at 16 secs, starting to peak late afternoon with pure swell 2.8 ft @ 15 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces). Solid residuals to continue on Tuesday (6/14) with period at 14 secs, and size slowly drifting down through the day. Swell fading out on Wednesday (6/15) with period at 13 secs. Swell Direction: 217-220 degrees

North California: Expect swell arrival starting Sunday (6/12) just after sunrise with period at 17-18 secs and size tiny if even noticeable. Size building to rideable by 11 PM as period moves to 17 secs solid. Swell to continue up on Monday (6/13) with period at 16 secs, starting to peak late afternoon with pure swell 2.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces). Solid residuals to continue on Tuesday (6/14) with period at 14 secs near noon, and size slowly drifting down through the afternoon. Swell fading out on Wednesday (6/15) with period at 13 secs early and heading down. Swell Direction: 218-221 degrees

 

QuikCAST

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Sundays models (6/5) indicated that beyond 72 hours in the upper levels a pocket of 130 kt zonal winds are to move from the dateline towards and into the Gulf of Alaska, but no trough expected to develop. At the surface the combination of two separate lows joining forces are to move into the Gulf of Alaska proper by late Wednesday (6/8) and build slightly on Thursday (6/9) with pressure 988 mbs. A weak gradient between this low and high pressure at 1024 mbs well off Southern CA to produce 25-30 kt west winds through Friday (6/10) aimed at Oregon north to Vancouver Island. No energy forecast pushing in to California from San Francisco south through. Local windswell from the high off the coast to continue with ever shrinking period.

 

MJO Update (updated 6/5)
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) started going negative on Saturday (5/14) and has slowly been creeping up since then, though still remained in the solidly negative range. It's started at -43 reading on Tuesday (5/17) and creeped up to -10 by 5/27, but then dropped to -25 on Tuesday (5/31) then up at -17 (6/2) and finally going positive at +5 on 6/5. . That's 21 days in the negative range. Overall the 30 day average SOI is -16 and the 90 day average is at -8. The current dip in SOI was associated with the active phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), but that looks to be over now. The SOI measures the difference in surface pressure between Darwin Australia and Tahiti. Consistently positive values signify La Nina and negative one signify El Nino. El Nino conditions support the development of stronger, larger and more consistent winter storms in the North Pacific and decreased Atlantic tropical storm activity.

In association with a negative SOI and and active phase of the MJO, one typically starts looking for development of a Westerly Wind Burst (WWB). This past months dip in the SOI had produced only near neutral winds in the far Western Equatorial Pacific and we had written off the potential for WWB development, but were pleasantly surprised when the neutral winds started actually blowing from the west (to east) on Tuesday (5/31) extending east to 160E through Friday (6/3). But they weren't strong and didn't last long and didn't even qualify as a WWB. WWB's are typically caused by the formation of low pressure on the north and south sides equator. As would be expected, low pressure north of the equator near 145E started amplifying on Wednesday (6/1) into Typhoon Nesat. It is tracking north now. A WWB is a product of more invigorated active phase of the MJO and can produce a Kelvin Wave (a bubble of warm water that tracks east under the equator towards Ecuador, then erupts at the surface generating a large pool of warmer than normal surface water there). Models suggest the onset of normal conditions as the inactive phase of the MJO takes hold, continuing through late-June. You can monitor the state of El Nino and the MJO here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

 

South Pacific

On Sunday (6/5) beyond 72 hours out the trough that developed east of New Zealand is to quickly get closed off by the southern branch of the jet Saturday (6/11). But the northern branch is to develop a supporting trough with winds to 180 kts holding through Sunday (6/12). There looks to be decent potential for something to develop in this trough at the surface.

At the surface high pressure that's dominating the Southeast Pacific is to drift south and east more, but not totally out of the picture. Low pressure is to try and develop in the upper trough now positioned in the mid-South Pacific south of Tahiti with something of interest suggested 180 hours out (Sunday 6/12). A complex 984 mb low with a building 35 kt fetch aimed northeast is indicated, but that's quite a stretch for the models. Will monitor.

Details to follow...


MAVERICKSSURF MAVFILM MAVSURFER SURFPULSE TOWSURFER THIRDREEF

Local Interest

El Nino Forecast Updated: Check out all the latest indicators to get a handle on how the Summer and Fall seasons could unfold. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/enso/current.shtml

Big Florida Swell: A strong gale pushed off Cape Hatteras on 4/15 generating solid seas and a 70 ft rogue wave that hit a cruise ship before proceeded south to make solid waves for the Southeast US coast. Matt Kechele was there to catch it. Take a look here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/forecast/kechele.html

Stormsurf Weather Models Updated Again: Yes, we've been at it again this weekend getting another batch of weather models running. Global coverage is now provided for jetstream forecasts and surface pressure and winds. Zoomed in data is also available for such locations as the Mentawai Islands to Western Australia corridor, Tahiti, South America, Europe and Norwegian Sea. So now you can get local wind forecasts for these and more locations with one click. Take a look here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu.html

Read all the latest news and happenings on our News Page here

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

2349

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