On Tuesday (6/6) Northern CA surf was chest to head high and uninspiring. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were waist to chest high with head high sets at the top spots. Central California surf was waist to chest high. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were waist high with up to chest high sets at the very best spots. The LA Area southward to Orange County was waist to chest high with sets to near head high. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were chest to head high with overhead sets. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was near flat. The East Shore was flat.
The last bit's of Swell #2S were hitting California but heading down. And another smaller pulse is on track behind it for the weekend. Hawaii has gone flat too. Fortunately a small backup southern hemi pulse is scheduled for Wednesday with another slightly better one targeted for the early weekend. Longterm a steady flow of weak systems have been streaming under New Zealand setting up decent rideable swell for Hawaii but not having much impact on the mainland. Up north theoretically a extratropical gale is forecast for the dateline over the next few days while a stronger southern hemi storm is forecast this weekend under New Zealand, but the models remain erratic and highly changeable from one run to the next. Nothing is certain. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Tuesdays jetstream charts (6/6) indicated a weak zonal flow centered following the 40N latitude line pushing west to east with no support for surface level gale development. A pair of troughs are now forecast just west of the dateline and northwest of Hawaii Wed/Thurs (6/8) fading Friday with winds up to 140 kts in each. Maybe some minimal support for surface level low pressure development. A weak zonal flow to return after that with no support for surface level development suggested. Detailed monitoring for the North Pacific is now on an exception basis through the summer.
At the surface on Tuesday (6/6) a weak pressure pattern remained in control of the North Pacific with no noteworthy high or low pressure cells present to generate swell producing fetch. Over the next 72 hours a slightly more favorable upper flow might help support development of a extratropical system sliding off Japan towards the dateline on Wednesday (6/7). Pressure to drop to 984 mbs with 40 kts winds in it's south quadrant targeting Hawaii for 24 hours followed by another 24 hours of 25 kt winds. Seas 25-30 ft suggested Thurs/Fri pushing to the dateline over a small area then fading. Possible small utility swell for Hawaii if this comes to pass.
Otherwise a small area of high pressure to be building off the US West Coast Thurs-Sat (6/10) starting to increase the strength of north winds along the coast of California to 25-30 kts, increasing the size of local windslop, but nothing remarkable.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
On Tuesday (6/6) weak pressure at 1020 mbs was just off the Northern CA coast generating 20-25 kt north winds from Pt Conception northward. This pattern to hold through Thursday (6/8) then get a boost as pressure bumps up to 1024 mbs and moves closer to the coast while lower pressure takes control of the mid-North Pacific. North winds expected at 25-30 kts from Pt Reyes to Cape Mendocino late Thursday into early Saturday with increased northwest windswell at 6 ft @ 7-8 secs (4 ft faces) expected but with poor local conditions. These winds to pull away from the coast later Saturday helping to improve local conditions, but the swell to be dropping by then. Near calm local winds to continue Sunday-Tuesday (6/13).
The detailed 5 Day wind forecast is included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.
On Tuesday (6/6) a split jetstream flow remained in-place over the South Pacific with most energy contained in the northern branch. The southern branch was being affected by a solid upper level high pressure system in the Central Pacific pushing east and driving the jet south over Antarctic ice, eliminating any chance for storm development from there in the the Southeast Pacific. A weak trough was just southeast of New Zealand with 130 kts winds flowing into it, providing some hope there. Over the next 72 hours that trough to rapidly fade, but fortunately not be replaced by and ridging. beyond 72 hours a stronger trough to build in the same area opening up a bit better gap between the Ross Ice Shelf and ice free waters to the north possibly supporting storm development from Friday (6/9) and beyond with occasional but short lived burst of 140 kts winds blowing through this trough. Probably more of a tease than reality though.
At the surface on Tuesday AM (6/6) high pressure at 1028 mbs had the Southeast Pacific locked down with no hope for low pressure development there. High pressure was also over Southeastern Australia and the Tasman Sea, driving a surface flow under New Zealand than up along it's eastern coast. A 968 mb low was starting to develop directly under New Zealand. Over the next 72 hours that low is to rapidly max Wednesday then fade late with 45-50 kts winds developing aimed east to northeast. 32 ft seas forecast through the day in the vicinity of 60S 170E to 55S 170W. Good chance for decent utility swell for Hawaii.
Another similar low to form late Thursday (6/8) in the same area, evolving likewise then fading 24 hours later. 33-35 ft seas to result Friday from 57S 170E to 55S 160W through early Saturday. More utility swell targeting primarily Hawaii.
Nothing else of interest forecast.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
On Wednesday (5/31) a low developed south of New Zealand with pressure 960 mbs and winds 45 kts, up to 55-60 kts that evening. Seas built to 30 ft at 62S 180W. On Thursday AM pressure was 948 mbs with winds continuing in the 50-55 kt range aimed mostly due east, almost perpendicular to any great circle route to Hawaii and only marginally better for California. But seas built to 38 ft ft over a tiny area at 63S 165W. A rapid decay set in through the day Thursday with no swell producing fetch left by evening and seas fading from 32 ft at 60S 160W. There were hints of residual 30 ft seas into Friday at 58S 158W, but with winds only 35 kts in the area, most of that was just decaying energy from previous days fetch rather than freshly generated seas.
Moderate utility class sideband energy is tracking north expected to reach Hawaii late Thursday (6/8) with swell 1 ft @ 18 secs building to 2.3 ft @ 17 secs Friday AM (3.5-4.0 ft faces). Swell to hold into Saturday (6/10) with swell 2.3 ft @ 15 secs (3.0-3.5 ft faces), then start heading down. Swell Direction: 190 degrees.
Swell to push into South CA starting Saturday (6/10) reaching 2 ft @ 18 secs late (3.0-3.5 ft faces) maxing Sunday with swell 3 ft @ 17 secs (4.5-5.0 ft faces) (but likely something less). Swell continuing at about 3 ft @ 15 secs Monday (4.0-4.5 ft faces) then heading down from there. Swell Direction: 195-200 degrees
Swell to push into North CA starting Saturday (6/10) reaching 1.6 ft @ 18 secs late (2.5-3.0 ft faces) maxing Sunday with swell 2.6 ft @ 17 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces) but likely something less. Swell continuing at about 3 ft @ 15-165 secs Monday (4.0-4.5 ft faces) then heading down from there. Swell Direction: 195-200 degrees
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours a series of weak and ineffectual low pressure systems are to push off Japan towards the Gulf of Alaska through early next week (6/13) but no real fetch of interest suggested. No high pressure generated fetch indicated either.
Beyond 72 hours the models suggest the trough in the upper atmosphere under New Zealand to hold fueling yet more surface level development. A stronger storm to form early Friday (6/9) under New Zealand with pressure at 968 mbs driving 50-55 kt winds blowing east to northeast through late Saturday, providing 48 hours of decent fetch. Sea forecast peaking at 42 ft at 55S 170W Sat PM fading below 30 ft late Sunday. This look promising on paper, but we've been teased by this many times before in the past weeks so nothing is certain till it actually forms.
Details to follow...
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table