BUOY ROUNDUP
Tuesday, June 7, 2022 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (6/7) North and Central CA had set waves at waist to near chest high and warbled and sloppy from modest northwest wind. Protected breaks were thigh to waist high and soft and weak with warble intermixed though wind was light from the northwest. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high or so on the peaks and clean with good form but weak. In Southern California/Ventura waves were chest to shoulder high and lined up with good form but warbled and sloppy from light northwest winds. Central Orange County had sets at chest high and lined up with decent form and lightly textured. South Orange County's best summertime breaks was waist high with chest high peaks and lined up with good form and clean but weak. North San Diego had sets to waist high and lined up and mushed with some moderate texture on top. Hawaii's North Shore was getting rideable waves at waist to chest high and lined up and clean but soft. The South Shore had sets at chest to shoulder high and lined up and real clean with good form. The East Shore was flat and heavily warbled from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (6/7) Hawaii was getting tiny swell from a small system developing over the Central South Pacific Sun-Mon (5/30) with up to 30 ft seas aimed well northeast. Tiny swell from it is also radiating north towards California. Beyond a solid and long lasting gale pattern is forecast for the Tasman Sea Thurs-Tues (6/14) with perhaps small energy from it eventually reaching Hawaii but the main target is Fiji. And maybe some of it is to leach into the far Southwest Pacific on Mon (6/13) with 33 ft seas aimed east. Otherwise no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (6/7) no swell producing weather systems have occurred with no swell in the water or forecast immediately.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.

Freezing level for the Tahoe area 13,000 ft today rising to 14,000 ft or higher starting 6/7 and holding beyond. maybe on dip to 11,000 ft on 6/12-6/13, then above 14,000 ft beyond.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (6/7) the influential southern branch of the jet was ridging south traversing the entire South Pacific down at 66S with winds up to 120 kts under New Zealand but far weaker over in the Southeast Pacific with no troughs in play offering no support for gale development. A broad trough was developing though over the Tasman Sea offering some potential there beyond. Over the next 72 hours no change is forecast for the greater South Pacific. But winds to build feeding the trough over the Tasman Sea to 110 kts on Wed (6/8) offering support for gale development through the period. Beyond 72 hours the Tasman Sea trough is to remain the focus with winds 120 kts pushing well north on Sat (6/11) still offering decent support for gale development then fading to 90 kts on Sun (6/12) still offering limited support and continuing into maybe Mon (6/13). At that time the trough is to start becoming more focused under New Zealand and pushing east and fully in the far Southwest Pacific on Tues (6/14) but weak with winds in its east quadrant only 80 kts offering little in terms of support for gale development.

Surface Analysis
Swell from a gale that developed under New Zealand lifting northeast was all but gone in North California (see 3rd New Zealand Gale below). Tiny swell from a small gale that formed over the Central South Pacific was fading in Hawaii and poised to arrive in CA (see Central South Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast in the greater Pacific.

But a gale is forecast developing in the Tasman Sea on Wed PM (6/8) producing 30-35 kt south winds over a decent sized area producing 23 ft seas at 43.5S 150E aimed north. On Thurs AM (5/9) fetch is to fade to 30 kts pushing north with seas 23 ft at 48S 150E aimed northeast. Additional southwest fetch is to develop in the evening at 30-35+ kts over a broad area with seas 25 ft at 43S 154E aimed northeast. On Fri AM (6/10) southwest winds continue at 30 kts with seas 24 ft at 39.5S 156E aimed northeast. A stronger and broader fetch is forecast developing in the evening at 35-40 kts aimed due north with 23 ft seas at 45.5S 149.5E aimed north. On Sat AM (6/11) a 800 nmile long fetch of 35-40 kt south winds is to be filling the West Tasman Sea with 29 ft seas building at 42S 152E aimed north. In the evening fetch is to be lifting north at 40-45 kts filling the Tasman Sea with 34 ft seas at 43.25S 153.75E aimed north. On Sun AM (6/12) fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts starting to impact New Zealand with 30 ft seas fading at 35.5S 163.5E aimed northeast. Fetch fading from 30 kts in the evening with seas fading from 27 ft at 37S 169.75E. Yet another pulse of 30-35 kt south winds is to fill the Southern Tasman Sea on Mon AM (6/13) producing 23 ft seas at 47S 155E aimed northeast. More of the same in the evening with seas to 25 ft at 43S 160E aimed north. On Tues AM (6/14) south fetch to still be 40-45 kts in the Southern Tasman Sea with 30 ft seas at 51.5S 155E aimed north. Possible large swell to result for Fiji.

3rd New Zealand Gale
One more fetch of southwest winds developed Mon PM (5/23) south of New Zealand at 40-45 kts getting traction and generating seas of 29 ft at 59.5S 157E aimed east-northeast. On Tues AM 30-35 kt south-southwest winds were over a broad area aimed northeast under and southeast of New Zealand with seas 33 ft at 55S 165.75E aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 40-45 kts over a solid area area just southeast of New Zealand with seas 37 ft at 51.25S 175.25E aimed northeast. On Wed AM (5/25) southwest winds were fading from 35-40 kts over a solid area aimed northeast with seas 35 ft at 47.5S 174.25W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was fading from 30-35 kts with seas 30 ft at 46.5S 171.25W aimed northeast. Residual fetch was fading on Thurs AM (5/26) from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 27 ft at 43S 164W aimed northeast. The gale faded out from there. More solid swell is forecast for Tahiti, Hawaii and the US West Coast given this storms good northward track and penetration well into the upper reaches of the South Pacific.

Southern CA: Swell fading on Sun (6/5) from 2.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5 ft). Residuals on Mon (6/6) fading from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 212-217 degrees

North CA: Dribbles on Tues (6/7) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 211-215 degrees

Central South Pacific Gale
On Sat PM (5/28) a gale started building well southeast of New Zealand with 40-45 kts south winds over a small area with seas building from 23 ft at 56S 174W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (5/29) fetch built to 45 kts from the south over a small area aimed well north with seas 30 ft over a tiny area at 53.75S 163.75W. In the evening 35 kt south winds were pushing well north with seas 27 ft over a small area at 48.25S 158.5W aimed north. The gale collapsed Mon AM (5/30) with 35 kts south winds fading and seas 23 ft at 45S 154W aimed north. This system was gone after that. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Dribbles on Tues (6/7) fading from 1.3 ft @ 13 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 183 degrees

Southern CA: Tiny swell arriving on Tues (6/7) at 0.9 ft @ 16-17 secs (1.0-1.5 ft). Swell holding on Wed (6/8) at 1.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (1.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (6/9) 1.3 ft @ 14 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (6/10) from 1.2 ft @ 13 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 203 degrees

North CA: Tiny swell arriving on Tues (6/7) at 0.9 ft @ 16-17 secs (1.0-1.5 ft). Swell holding on Wed (6/8) at 1.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (6/9) 1.1 ft @ 14 secs (1.5 ft). Swell fading on Fri (6/10) from 1.4 ft @ 13 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 202 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a small gale is forecast in the upper reaches of the far Southeast Pacific on Thurs Am (6/9) evening producing 40 kt south winds and seas to 23 ft at 36S 122W aimed north. In the evening south winds to fade from 35 kts with seas 27 ft seas at 37S 118W aimed north. The gale to evaporate from there. Maybe some tiny swell to result for Southern CA.

There's some suggestion the Tasman Sea gale (above0 is to seep into the far Southwest Pacific on Mon AM (6/13) with 45 kt west-southwest winds and seas 29 ft at 50S 176.25E aimed east-northeast. East winds to continue in the evening at 40-45 kts with seas 33 ft at 50S 174W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Otherwise no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

CFS Model Stable
La Nina to fade by mid-June - SOI Peaked Late April - New Kelvin Wave Stalled
Summary - Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21 and is now fading. The SOI is just past its peak, higher than last years peak. A delayed response. A much hoped for Active Phase of the MJO (and westerly anomalies) in April has resulted in a weak Kelvin Wave but it is stalled mid-way across the Pacific today. La Nina conditions are projected ending by the CFS in June but persisting per the IRI models until Nov. West anomalies are forecast filling half or more of the KWGA from here forward. The outlook is turning more optimistic with ENSO neutral trying to set up.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/6) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and weak west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): No New Data On (6/5) mostly weak east anomalies were over the KWGA. The 7 day forecast calls for weak east anomalies starting to build over the KWGA on 6/9 to moderate strength and holding through the end of the model run on 6/12.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/7) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was solidly present building east to 172E. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 175W (previously 175E). The 26 degree isotherm is holding at 133W. The 24 deg isotherm was steady across the East Pacific. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +3 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge easing east to 135W with a thin stream connecting it to the East Pacific. A previous pool of -1C cool anomalies below the warm pool at 100W are gone. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/2 indicates the same pocket of cool anomalies between 130W-80W with the core at 90W at -4 degs C and is shifting east and weakening (discharging to the surface). A possible Kelvin Wave is stalled filling the West Pacific reaching east to 140W. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/2) Sea heights were steady over the Equatorial Pacific. A nearly contiguous string of positive anomaly pockets were north of the equator pushing from the dateline to 110W along the 3N latitude line. A broad but shrinking area of negative anomalies at -5 cms were over the equator from Ecuador to 130W with -10 to -15 cms over the Galapagos. Otherwise positive anomalies were mostly locked from 180W and points west of there. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram a pocket of cool anomalies was fading from -1.0 degs between Ecuador and 120W. And the Kelvin Wave was stalled at 150W. It looks like a standoff between warm water in the west generally growing in coverage and cool water holding out over the far east Pacific and weakening in coverage.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (6/6) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile, Peru and Ecuador to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. A few pockets of warm water were on the equator from Ecuador building to 150W. A pocket of previously stronger cold water was all but fully discharged along the coast of Peru reaching west to the Galapagos and losing density and coverage fast. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (1 deg N) across the entire North Pacific. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/6): Perhaps some weak cooling was present between Ecuador and the Galapagos with warming occurring over the remainder of the equator from 90W and points west of there.
Hi-res Overview: (6/6) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on the equator and from South America down at 20S. Warmer than normal waters were aligned from 1N and above over the entire North Pacific. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific but the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be waning.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/7) Today's temps were falling some at -1.752 previously up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after temps hovering at -2.057 peaking on 4/23 and have been near there since 4/19. Prior to that they were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/7) Today's temps were -0.564 and have been rising steadily since 5/15. They were down to -0.929 (5/2) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May.
Forecast (6/7) - Temps are to steadily rise moving forward to about -0.35 degs in July falling to -0.60 in Oct, then rising above the La Nina threshold in Nov and up to +0.1 degs in Feb. This model suggests we are at going to slowly transition towards ENSO neutral in the coming Winter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps rising to -0.50 degs in June and to -0.20 degs in July then slowly falling to -0.45 degs Oct-Nov, then rising from there forward to +0.05 degs in Feb. According to this version of the model we will be moving out of La Nina in June. This is beating the forecast from the IRI forecast (see IRI Consensus forecast below).
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 19, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.762 degs today and have bottomed out. They are to warm to -0.594 in July (previously -0.287 and -0.449 degs the 2 previous updates) then falling slightly to -0.708 in November before rising to -0.441 in Dec and -0.275 degs in Jan. This model now suggest a continuation of borderline minimal La Nina temps through Nov. then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is now in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (6/7) the daily index was positive at +28.54 with previous peaks at +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend of late has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was rising some at +18.79 today after rising to +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was rising some at +16.40 today and is just barely below its peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table