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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: June 11, 2005 4:38 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
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Swell Potential Rating = 2 - California & 4.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 6/13 thru Sun 6/19
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Utility swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of Utility swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Swell #2S Fading in Hawaii
But Moving Towards CA/Small Storm Starts South of Tahiti

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Saturday (6/11) Northern CA surf was head high with fair conditions. South facing breaks were flat with lot's of reef exposed early. Central California was waist high to chest high, foggy but not too lumpy early. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were lucky to be waist high, though best breaks were up to near chest high. The LA area southward into Orange County was up to waist high with best breaks having up to chest chest high sets. Southward to San Diego waves were the same. The North Shore of Oahu was basically flat. The South Shore was head high to 1 ft overhead and heading down. The East Shore was chest high.

Hawaii was the place to be on Friday afternoon with waves at the best breaks 1-3 ft overhead with peaks to 4 ft over. Unfortunately swell was on it's way down on Saturday, though still fun sized and expected to continue tapering off in the coming days. This same swell, though in a much smaller version, is pushing towards California. Windswell is also on the rise expected to be the prime swell source over the weekend. There's a weak storm on the charts for the South Pacific, but in general the pattern down there is pretty weak. See details below...

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SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
At the jetstream level on Saturday (6/11) a big ridge was over the Northeast Pacific while a weak trough was over the dateline (animation here). Over the next 72 hours the ridge is to breaks down while the trough pushes into the eastern Gulf late Monday (6/13) while a new ridge builds over the dateline. Minimal support for storm development expected at the surface from the trough.

At the surface today two high pressure centered remained in control. The largest one was filling the Northeast Pacific at 1028 mbs extending from the California coast west to the dateline. A second smaller one was over the dateline with the same pressure. The remains of Tropical Storm Nesat were positioned just off the southern Kuril Islands tracking north up the backside of the dateline high pressure center. All fetch was aimed north towards the Bering Sea (animation here). Over the next 72 hours high pressure is to retain control of the Northeast Pacific basically unchanged. In the west high pressure there is to loose a bit of it's grip as the weak remnants of Nesat push into the Bering Sea. No swell producing fetch forecast.

More model data here

 

California Offshore Forecast
Saturday mornings local charts (6/11) depicted solid high pressure at 1028 mbs centered 850 nmiles northeast of Hawaii and ridging strong into the Islands and 1200 nmiles west of Monterey Bay CA ridging into the mainland. Low pressure was building inland over Nevada starting to set up the standard pressure gradient between the two opposing systems, generating brisk north winds at their junction, along the California coast. But this event is now not scheduled to be quite as strong as originally forecast. By Saturday PM a small area of 30-35 kt north winds are forecast off Pt Arena varying slightly through Sunday. Much of this fetch is to be impacting the coast through the weekend. The gradient is to hold through Monday AM (6/13) then start fading late Tuesday (6/14) as a new low starts circulating north of Hawaii tracking due east with 25-30 kt winds aimed right at North CA through early Thursday (6/16) then developing just off the coast (details in the long range forecast). In summary: Windswell through Monday with lumpy conditions (at best), then fading fast.

The 5 Day wind forecast is now included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.

 

South Pacific

Overview
On Saturday (6/11) the jetstream remained basically in a split pattern with the north branch running flat across the open waters of the South Pacific near 30S and the southern branch over the Ross Ice Shelf. Of note, much energy was in a pocket flowing just south of Tahiti with winds at 180 kts but no well defined trough was present. A cutoff low looked to be centered in between the two branches under this energy pocket (animation here). Over the next 72 hours the split pattern is to remain intact with the energy pocket fading some, but definitely not out. The cutoff low under it is to hold till at least Tuesday (6/14).

At the surface today strong high pressure at 1028 mbs remained centered in the far eastern South Pacific, ridging south to Antarctica and into Chile while a second high at 1028 mbs was centered over New Zealand. Low pressure at 984 mbs was starting to develop south of Tahiti centered between these two highs (animation here). Over the next 72 hours this low is to become the main (and only ) focus for swell producing fetch in the Pacific. On Saturday PM (6/11) the low is to start getting more organized with pressure 976 mbs, starting to tap strong upper winds just north of it. Winds building to 45-50 kts over a tiny area centered at 46S 153W aimed due north. Seas building. By Sunday (6/12) a broad 35-45 kt fetch with imbedded winds to near 50 kts developing at 43S 152W in the storms west quadrant aimed north in close proximity to Tahiti and the US west coast. Hawaii to also be positioned to receive decent energy. Seas building to 32 ft centered at 40S 152W. By Sunday PM pressure to hold but winds are to be fading at 35-40 kts centered at 45S 149W. Seas forecast still at 32 ft centered at 35S 147W. By Monday AM (6/13) this system is to be fading down with no swell producing fetch left. Residual seas of 29 ft forecast at 35S 139W tracking east. In all this system is to be generally uninspiring due to it's short life and limited swell production capacity, but given it very north position and close proximity to Tahiti, they will likely get a solid does of raw and warbled swell energy. Hawaii will be next up with more of a glancing blow, but rideable just the same. Finally California to receive some fun sized surf, but all this assumes the storm develops as forecast. Will monitor.

More model data here

 

Swell #2S - Tiny New Zealand Storm
Some fetch from a storm that pushed from the Tasman Sea across New Zealand started to redevelop just along the eastern New Zealand coast late Thursday (6/2) with pressure 980 mbs. By Friday AM (6/3) pressure dropped to 976 mbs with winds on the west side of the low confirmed up to 45-50 kts over a tiny area centered just south of Chatham Island (46S 178W) aimed up the 195 degree path to Hawaii and the 215-218 degree path to California. Seas were building. In the evening pressure held with winds continuing solid at 45-50 kts in roughly the same location just positioned a few degree north. Seas were modeled at 29 ft over a tiny area centered at 42S 177W.

Early Saturday (6/4) the low drifted east with pressure up to 980 mbs while the fetch started fading at 40-45 kts over a tiny area a little further north located at 40S 177W. Winds were aimed well at Hawaii up the 195 degree path and California up the 220 degree paths. Seas built to 30 ft centered at 40S 177W. In the evening the low was fading with pressure at 984 mbs while a tiny fetch of barely 40 kt winds continued over Chatham Island. Seas were modeled at 29 ft centered at 37S 174W and were fading fast.

On Tuesday (6/7) buoy 51028 started to detect some early signs of this swell as it crossed the equator heading towards Hawaii. This buoy was positioned a bit too far east to accurately gauge the energy moving towards Hawaii and a bit too far west to gauge what was tracking towards the US mainland. Regardless pure swell was about 2.6 ft @ 17 secs and heading up.

By Wednesday AM (6/8) pure swell at the Christmas Island buoy was up to 5-6 ft @ 15 secs with one reading topping 7 ft @ 15 secs by afternoon, then falling to the 5-6 ft range at 14 secs tracking towards Hawaii and California.

The fetch in this system tracked northeast as it moved from the west quadrant into the storms north quadrant, allowing it's winds to act on already agitated seas and providing a little bit more push to the resulting swell. Still, this was a very small fetch area limiting it's swell generation potential. At this time there's some hope for a decent swell for Hawaii due to their relative proximity to this tiny fetch (3636-3964) but less for California due to decay as the swell makes the long journey northeast towards the coast (5267-5577).

Hawaii: Rideable energy to continue into Sunday (6/12) with swell 3.6 ft @ 13 secs but heading down (4.0-4.5 ft faces). 11-12 sec residuals to continue on Monday (6/13) but dropping steadily. Swell Direction: 195-197 degrees

South California: Expect swell arrival starting Sunday (6/12) near sunrise with period at 17-18 secs and size tiny if even noticeable. Size building to rideable by sunset as period moves to 17 secs solid. Swell to continue up on Monday (6/13) with period at 16 secs, starting to peak late afternoon with pure swell 2.8 ft @ 15 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces). Solid residuals to continue on Tuesday (6/14) with period at 14 secs, and size slowly drifting down through the day. Swell fading out on Wednesday (6/15) with period at 13 secs. Swell Direction: 217-220 degrees

North California: Expect swell arrival starting Sunday (6/12) just after sunrise with period at 17-18 secs and size tiny if even noticeable. Size building to rideable by 11 PM as period moves to 17 secs solid. Swell to continue up on Monday (6/13) with period at 16 secs, starting to peak late afternoon with pure swell 2.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces). Solid residuals to continue on Tuesday (6/14) with period at 14 secs near noon, and size slowly drifting down through the afternoon. Swell fading out on Wednesday (6/15) with period at 13-14 secs early and heading down. Swell Direction: 218-221 degrees

 

QuikCAST

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Saturdays models (6/11) indicated that beyond 72 hours in the upper levels the trough in the Gulf is to amplify a bit by Friday (6/17) digging in pretty deep just off Oregon with the jet itself moving strong over North California. Looks like a good setup for a local low at the surface. Nothing else of interest forecast back to the west. At the surface high pressure is to give up a little ground by Wednesday (6/15) as low pressure pokes a hole into it from the west and pushes through the Gulf right up to the Oregon coast and starts developing the on Thursday (6/16). Winds forecast up to 40 kts in the gales west quadrant aimed at North CA and Oregon, then pushing inland on Friday. We'll continue to believe this is just a mirage, but will watch it just the same. Otherwise high pressure to build back in behind the low with no other swell producing fetch forecast.

 

MJO Update
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was near normal. Negative readings that dominated for the past 21 days (5/14 through 6/4) associated with the active phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation are over. Forecast models suggest that the inactive phase is well entrenched with slightly above normal trades expected over the equator in the far Western Pacific through 6/20, then fading to near normal with no obvious signs of the MJO depicted.

 

South Pacific

On Saturday (6/11) beyond 72 hours out the jetstream suggests that a trough is to finally develop in the southern branch in the eastern South Pacific near 140W on Wednesday (6/15) and moving to capture the cutoff low indicated earlier. It is to get it and drag it east into Saturday (6/18). A very weak pattern to develop behind.

At the surface a quirky storm is forecast to develop just north of New Zealand at 992 mbs on Tuesday (6/14). Winds building to the 40-50 kt rang impacting New Zealand's northern tip, but all aimed mostly due west to northwest aimed towards the northeast Australian coast. Sea forecast to 35 ft on late Tuesday then fading. Otherwise no swell producing fetch forecast.

Details to follow...


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Local Interest

El Nino Forecast Updated: Check out all the latest indicators to get a handle on how the Summer and Fall seasons could unfold. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/enso/current.shtml

Big Florida Swell: A strong gale pushed off Cape Hatteras on 4/15 generating solid seas and a 70 ft rogue wave that hit a cruise ship before proceeded south to make solid waves for the Southeast US coast. Matt Kechele was there to catch it. Take a look here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/forecast/kechele.html

Stormsurf Weather Models Updated Again: Yes, we've been at it again this weekend getting another batch of weather models running. Global coverage is now provided for jetstream forecasts and surface pressure and winds. Zoomed in data is also available for such locations as the Mentawai Islands to Western Australia corridor, Tahiti, South America, Europe and Norwegian Sea. So now you can get local wind forecasts for these and more locations with one click. Take a look here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu.html

Read all the latest news and happenings on our News Page here

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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