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BUOY ROUNDUP
On Thursday, June 11, 2020 :

• Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 14.1 secs from 185 degrees.
• Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 6.6 secs from 47 degrees. Water temp 78.3 degs.
• Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 1.1 ft @ 16.5 secs from 192 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 0-2 kts. Water temperature 63.3 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.0 ft @ 8.4 secs from 309 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.2 ft @ 18.0 secs from 202 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.6 ft @ 18.0 secs from 206 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 2.1 ft @ 17.6 secs from 197 degrees.
• Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.4 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 3.3 ft @ 7.6 secs from 310 degrees with southern hemi swell 1.3 ft @ 17.7 secs from 195 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 14-18 kts. Water temp 50.4 degs (013), NA degs (012) and 55.8 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (6/11) in North and Central CA locally generated north windswell was producing waves at waist high and clean and soft with pretty heavy fog early. Protected breaks were thigh to maybe waist high and clean but soft and mushed and weak with heavy overcast early. At Santa Cruz southern hemi swell was producing set waves at maybe waist high on the rare sets and clean but pretty foggy early. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to maybe waist high and reasonably lined up but soft with a fair amount of warble in the water but with clean surface conditions. Central Orange County had waves at waist to chest high and well lined up coming from the south and clean and reasonably consistent. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at chest to head high when they came and clean and lined up with good surface conditions. North San Diego had waves at waist high or so and clean and lined up. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was getting some southern hemi swell with waves waist to maybe chest high on occasion and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at chest high with east tradewinds blowing and conditions fully chopped.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (6/11) in Hawaii some generic southern hemi background swell was hitting. In California the last bits of energy was hitting from a gale that developed under New Zealand lifting northeast Sat-Mon (6/1) producing up to 46 ft seas aimed northeast. And new swell was starting to show from a small gale that formed on the eastern edge of the Southern CA swell window in the deep Southeast Pacific on Wed-Thurs (6/4) producing 32 ft seas aimed northeast. And a gale passed east under New Zealand Mon-Tues (6/9) producing up to 38 ft seas aimed east. Swell is radiating northeast. Another small gale is to form southeast of New Zealand Fri-Sun (6/14) lifting north with up to 37 ft seas fading to 32 ft later in it's life. Beyond there's some weak signals of another gale forming under New Zealand on Thurs (6/18).

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Thursday (6/11) no swell of interest was in the water.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday (6/11) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts between Monterey and Morro Bay early and fading to 10 kts over all of North and Central CA later. Fri (6/12) north winds to be 5-10 kts for North and Central CA early building to 15 kts later from Monterey down to Pt Conception. Light rain possible for Bodega Bay northward in the afternoon and early evening continuing over the whole Sierra overnight. Light snow for elevations above 7500 ft after sunset. Sat (6/13) North CA to have light winds early and Central CA is to have north winds 15-20 kts from Monterey south to Pt Conception and building there to 20-25 kts later. Light rain for Cape Mendocino at sunset. On Sun (6/14) north winds to be 5-10 kts early for North CA and 15-20 kts for Monterey southward to Pt Conception early building to 15-20 kts for all of North and Central CA later. Mon (6/15) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts from Pt Arena to Pt Conception early holding all day. Tues (6/16) north winds are forecast at 15-20 kts early from Cape Mendocino south to Pt Conception building to 20-25 kts later. Wed (6/17) northwest winds to hold at 20-25 kts early for all of North and Central CA early continuing through the day. No change on Thurs (6/18).

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 1.5, 3.0, 1.7 and 0.3 inches respectively (all on Fri PM 6/12).

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (6/11) the jetstream was mostly split with the southern branch gently lifting northeast under New Zealand almost trying to form a trough but with winds only 80-90 kts feeding it not yet offering decent support for gale development. East of there the jet held position tracking east up at 53S over the Central South Pacific then was ridging and falling south over the far Southeast Pacific crashing into Antarctica and offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours wind energy is to start building south of New Zealand lifting northeast on Fri (6/12) and then north at 130 kts starting to carve out a trough just east of New Zealand and building some into Sun (6/14) over the South Central Pacific reaching north to 38S offering decent support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (6/15) the trough is to get cutoff and a solid ridge is to be pushing hard south to 70S under and southeast of New Zealand and sweeping east eliminating any support for gale development through Tues (6/16). Fortunately it is to be weakening at that time with a new pocket of wind energy starting to push east under New Zealand up at 53S and then pushing northeast late with winds building to 120 kts perhaps offering support for gale development.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (6/11) swell from a gale that pushed under New Zealand was fading in Southern California (see New Zealand Gale #4 below). A small gale formed in the far Southeast Pacific after that generating swell radiating north (see Southeast Pacific Gale below). And yet another gael pushed under New Zealand behind that (see Weak New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours the model suggest another gale is to form southeast of New Zealand on Fri AM (6/12) with lifting northeast with a broad area of 35-40 kts southwest winds and seas 29 ft at 54S 175.5E aimed northeast. In the evening 40-45 kt southwest winds are to be lifting northeast with 35 ft seas at 57S 173.5W aimed northeast. The gale is to shrink some but start lifting due north Sat AM (6/13) with 40 kt south winds and seas 36 ft at 52S 167W aimed north to northeast. In the evening fetch is to hold coverage while lifting north at 35-40 kts with 33 ft seas at 44S 164W aimed north to northeast. On Sun AM (6/14) the gale is to be fading with south winds at 35 kts with 31 ft seas over a modest area aimed north at 40S 160W. In the evening fetch is to fade out with seas fading from 27 ft at 37S 158W aimed northeast. Possible decent swell radiating north towards Tahiti, Hawaii and the US West Coast. Something to monitor.

 

New Zealand Gale #4
Another solid gale started building under New Zealand on Fri PM (5/29) producing 40-45 kt southwest winds over a solid area aimed northeast with 29 ft seas building at 58S 166E aimed east. On Sat AM (5/30) a solid area of 50 kt southwest winds were building south of New Zealand producing 43 ft seas at 60.5S 173E aimed east. The gale tracked east-northeast in the evening with 45-50 kts southwest winds over a solid area and seas 44 ft at 58.5S 171.5W aimed northeast. The gale continued east-northeast on Sun AM (5/31) with 40 kt southwest winds and seas 40 ft over a decent area aimed northeast at 56.5S 159W. The gale was fading in the evening with 35-40 kt southwest winds over a solid area aimed well northeast and seas fading from 33 ft at 54S 150W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading Mon AM (6/1) from 30-35 kts over a modest area aimed north with seas 29 ft at 52S 140W aimed northeast. Fetch was gone in the evening. Swell is radiating northeast through pushing mainly east of Hawaii.

Southern CA: Residuals fading on Thurs (6/11) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 201 degrees

 

Southeast Pacific Gale
A small gale formed in the far Southeast Pacific on Wed PM (6/3) producing a broad area of 35-40 kt southwest winds aimed well northeast with seas 31 ft at 56S 123W. Fetch was fading Thurs AM (6/4) at 35-40 kts from the southwest lifting northeast with seas 31 ft at 52S 120W aimed northeast. The gale is to continue lifting northeast in the evening with 35 kt southerly winds but outside the CA swell window with seas 29 ft at 45S 111.5W targeting mainly Peru and Central America. The gale is to continue targeting Peru after that while fading.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/11) building to 2.3 ft @ 18 secs late (4.0 ft). Swell to peak on Fri (6/12) at 2.6 ft @ 16-17 secs early (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (6/13) from 2.2 ft @ 15 secs early (3.0 ft). A second pulse is to arrive on Sun (6/14) building to 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs late (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (6/15) from 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft) early. Swell dissipating on Tues (6/16) from 1.5 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 183 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/11) building to 1.6 ft @ 19 secs late (3.0 ft). Swell to peak on Fri (6/12) at 2.1 ft @ 17 secs mid-day (3.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (6/13) from 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell is to be gone after that. Swell Direction: 180 degrees turning to 175 degrees

 

Weak New Zealand Gale
A weak primer gale started developing under New Zealand on Mon PM (6/8) producing 45 kt southwest winds over a small area and 30 ft seas at 58S 179E aimed northeast. On Tues AM (6/9) fetch was fading from 40 kts from the southwest with 29-30 ft seas over a small area at 57S 168W aimed northeast. Behind it a stronger gale was building south-southwest of New Zealand with 45-50 kt west winds and seas building to 39 ft over a modest sized area at 57S 156E aimed east. In the evening fetch was fading from 40 kts from the west-southwest and seas at 36 ft at 56S 172E aimed east. The gale was pushing east-northeast on Wed AM (6/10) producing 30 kt southwest winds and seas fading from 29-30 ft at 55S 173W aimed east-northeast. This system was gone after that. Some minimal swell is radiating northeast towards Hawaii and a little more energy towards the US West Coast with luck. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Tues (6/16) building to 1.4 ft @ 18-19 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell building on Wed (6/17) to 1.8 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0 ft) mid-afternoon. Swell fading on Thurs (6/18) from 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/18) building to 1.3 ft @ 19-20 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 208-210 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/18) building to 1.2 ft @ 20 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 206-209 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no obvious swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina Pattern Building Some

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool had collapsed with warm water starting to build on the equator.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST

Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii) Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. Given all that, for 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the end of 2020 if not longer.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/10) 5 day average winds were solid from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific then moderate plus strength over the Dateline and KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific turning light easterly over the Central Pacific and then neutral over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (6/11) moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast calls for those anomalies holding and mostly filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 6/17 though weakening to neutral over a small area just west of the dateline. East anomalies are forecast mostly filling the East Pacific through the end of the model run.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (6/10) A modest Inactive MJO/Dry pattern was filling the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Inactive Phase is to hold on day 5 then fading some on day 10 and fading more on day 15 while the Active Phase builds over the Maritime Continent and starts seeping west into the KWGA. The dynamic model indicates much the same but on day 15 a new strong Inactive/Dry Phase is to instantly materialize and fill the KWGA.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/11) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the Central Indian Ocean today and is to slowly ease east and weaken and all but gone over the Maritime Continent at day 15. The GEFS model suggests the Active Phase retrograding west then returning right where it started at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/11) This model depicts the Inactive Phase was modest over the East Pacific today and is to push east moving over Central America on 6/27. A weak Active MJO is forecast developing over the far West Pacific 6/16 pushing slowly east with a second modest pulse pushing over the West Pacific on 7/1 tracking east and moving into Central America starting 7/6 and continuing through the end of model run on 7/21. A moderate Inactive Phase is to start building in the far West Pacific on 7/18.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/10) This model depicts no coherent MJO signal over the KWGA today or if anything a weak Inactive signal with mostly east anomalies over the KWGA. The forecast indicates a weak Inactive MJO tracking east through the KWGA through 6/17 with modest to moderate east anomalies holding and filling the KWGA and if anything building in coverage continuing through the end of the model run on 7/8.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/11 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts a weak Active MJO all but gone over the KWGA today with mostly weak east anomalies indicated in the KWGA. The forecast depicts the Inactive MJO is to start building on 6/14 easing east through 7/29 with weak mostly east anomalies forecast over the KWGA and east anomalies also setting up over the East Pacific 6/29 and building steadily in coverage filling the East Pacific in late July and then holding steady for the foreseeable future. An Active MJO is forecast developing in the far West KWGA on 7/23 and pushing west filling the KWGA 7/29 holding through 8/16 with weak west anomalies in pockets filling the western half of the KWGA while east anomalies hold solid over the Eastern half of the KWGA and filling the remainder of the Pacific. After that an Inactive MJO is forecast 8/15 through the end of the model run on 9/8 with weak east and west anomalies filling the KWGA with solid east anomalies filling the East Pacific. The low pass filter indicates no low or high pressure bias present in either the Indian Ocean or the Pacific for the moment. A high pressure bias is to appear over the East Pacific on 6/12 building steadily in coverage through the end of the model run with a second contour setting up on 7/30. And at the same time a single contour low pressure bias is to reappear over the Indian Ocean starting 7/26 building in coverage through the end of the model run. East anomalies that have been previously solid in the Indian Ocean are migrating east today into the Pacific are to set up on the dateline and points east of there by 6/28 and continuing if not building there for the foreseeable future fueled by the building high pressure bias contour. Based on this model it appears a clear transition to La Nina is starting today and is to become entrenched by mid-July.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/11) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was stable reaching east to 160E. The 29 deg isotherm was building reaching east to 172W. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding west to 158W today. The 24 deg isotherm was no longer pushing into Ecuador but was reaching the surface at 123W, retrograding west slightly. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies 0-1 deg C were isolated to the West Pacific reaching east to 150W. There were no warm anomalies east of there. Cool anomalies were upwelling to the surface from a large subsurface pocket of cool water -2 degs 150 meters deep from 180W to Ecuador. It is likely poised to continue upwelling to the surface over the coming weeks though continues to lose some of it's intensity today. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/7 indicates the same thing with warm anomalies now gone in the East Pacific and with cool water at depth erupting in the east to the surface between 85W-170W at -5 degs C. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/7) Negative anomalies at -5 to -10 cms were over the equatorial Pacific between Ecuador and 160W and maybe losing a little coverage, with neutral anomalies pushing west to 170E (losing some ground there too) suggestive of a cool subsurface pool below the equator and mostly holding in coverage. Negative anomalies were also now building along and down the coast of Peru and up the coast of Central America to Mexico. Positive anomalies at +5 cms were effectively gone over the entirety of the equatorial Pacific.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/10) The latest images indicate cold water was building solidly over the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos and to the dateline, looking like the start of a La Nina pattern. Warm anomalies were all but gone off the coast of Chile up into Peru and starting to turn cooler. Warm water was off Central America reaching west to the dateline but only north of the equator, remnants of a fading El Nino like pattern. Overall the cool pool on the equator was unmistakable and building in coverage and intensity.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/10): A well defined cooling trend was from down along Peru and pushing north and east on the equator along Ecuador and out over the Galapagos out to 145W. Pockets of warming were on the equator west of 150W to the dateline. The short term trend is looking like a push firmly towards the development of La Nina with cool water over the Eastern Equatorial Pacific scraping any remaining warm equatorial water and pushing it quickly west to the far West equatorial Pacific.
Hi-res Overview: (6/10) A stream of cool water was holding on the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and if anything building. Warmer than normal temps were along the coast of South and Central America but fading fast with building pockets of cooler water developing there. Warmer than normal temps were stable north of the equator with cooler than normal water building on and south of the equator. Overall the data suggests a building La Nina.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/11) Today's temps were momentarily stable down at -1.188 after previously falling to -0.810 on 5/27. Overall the trend is fading from a warmer range near +0.6 degs between 2/25-3/26.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/11) Temps were fading some to -0.330 after bottoming out at -0.595 on 5/27. Overall the trend is on a firm downward trajectory after previously being in the +0.3 degree range in Feb., and up to the +0.5-+0.6 degree range 3/12-4/8.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/11) Actual temperatures were in the +0.65 deg range 1/1/2020 through 4/1/2020 then started falling hard down to -0.25 in late-May. The forecast depicts temps continuing to fall, down to -0.55 July 1, then continuing on a slower downward trajectory reaching down to -0.95 in early Nov and holding there through Dec, then starting to rebound in early 2021. According to this model sea surface temps should be falling strongly moving towards La Nina as Summer develops. All objective evidence indicates this is in-fact occurring.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 20, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at +0.20 degs, and are to slow fade to neutral +0.00 in July 2020, then holding there through December 2020. The outliers are the dynamic models (NCEP CFS, NASA GMAO and the COLA CCSM4) all suggesting solid La Nina. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (6/11): The daily index was positive today at 0.98. The 30 day average was falling to -2.03. The 90 day average was steady at -2.55, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was in control.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): April 2020 -0.62, March -0.11, Feb +0.69, Jan +0.42, Dec 2019 +0.46, Nov +1.03, Oct +0.27 Sept +1.11, August +0.60, July +0.75, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.30, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

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External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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Powerlinessurf

Jeff Clark

Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (5/31):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEFabZMh2Tw&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table