On Tuesday (6/12) Northern CA surf was head high to 2 ft overhead with rare sets 2 ft bigger still and a jumbled mess. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were waist to chest high and occasionally more. Central California surf (Morro Bay) was head high with sets 1 ft more. Southern CA from Santa Barbara to just north of LA was thigh to waist high at the best breaks. The LA Area southward to Orange County was waist to chest high at the best breaks. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were waist to chest high. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was waist high. The East Shore report was not available.
North/Central California continued getting a sizeable mix of local windswell plus windswell from off Oregon. Southern California was getting some wrap-around windswell from off Cape Mendocino and Oregon. Hawaii was getting the fading last little bits of southern hemi swell on the South Shore but the North Shore was flat. Another moderate pulse of southern hemi swell is pushing north towards Hawaii originating from a tiny fetch mid-last week off eastern New Zealand, setting up something fun for the week ahead. Minimal easterly windswell expected too. But nothing is scheduled for the North Shore. For the mainland a second weak low pressure system is in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska and barely in the North CA swell window. This to be providing limited reinforcements combined with more local windswell providing something rideable for California. A little bit's of the southern hemi swell scheduled for Hawaii mid-week is to be pushing towards the mainland too, but smaller. Longterm the South Pacific remains dominated by high pressure with no change forecast. After the little pulse expected for Hawaii and California, a flat spell is to really set in and continue for quite some time. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Tuesdays jetstream charts (6/12) for the North Pacific indicated a very weak flow limping east from off Kamchatka into Washington with peak winds near 120 kts off the Pacific Northwest coast providing the thinnest of margins to support low pressure development. Over the next 72 hours that one little area to hold if not amplify with winds to 140 kts early Wednesday (6/13), then pushing onshore and fading away. Virtually nothing forecast west of there. Beyond 72 hours the bulk of the jet to move north of the Aleutians and decay even more with only a thin little stream dipping somewhat south through the Gulf of Alaska. No real support for surface level low pressure development forecast.
At the surface today weak low pressure at 1000 mbs was off Washington state driving a tiny area of 30 kts northwest winds towards the PAcific Northwest and Northern CA. Seas up to 18 ft forecast late. Limited support for windswell development. Otherwise high pressure at 1024 mbs was 900 nmiles west of Pt Conception CA generating a 25 kt northerly flow over the Cape Mendocino coast producing limited short period windswell. This high was also generating moderate easterly trades pushing towards the Hawaiian Islands at 20 kts perhaps setting up limited short period windswell along eastern shores. Over the next 72 hrs the low off the Pacific Northwest to push inland Wednesday allowing high pressure to take control, setting up a solid fetch of 25-30 kt north winds over Cape Mendocino continuing through Thursday (6/14) and providing good potential for windswell north of Pt Conception. Fetch from that high to also wrap towards the Hawaiian Islands Thursday into Friday providing decent potential for short period windswell along northeast shores.
Tropical depression 3E was 400 nmiles south of Cabo San Lucas tracking generally west with sustained winds at 25 kts. A slow decay with continued westerly heading forecast. No swell producing potential forecast.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
On Tuesday (6/12) high pressure at 1026 mbs was 900 nmiles west of Pt Conception ridging into California generating a moderate northerly flow in the 20-25 kt range centered between Cape Mendocino and Big Sur. Windswell was occurring at exposed breaks enhanced by windswell pushing out of the Gulf of Alaska thanks to low pressure there over the past weekend. Yet another low was off Oregon today with 30 kt northwest winds generating 18 ft seas and setting up more windswell pushing south and expected to impact the coast early Friday (6/15). That low to be inland Wednesday (6/13) with high pressure again taking control, generating more northerly winds off Pt Reyes at 30 kts building in areal coverage Thursday with windswell on the way up. A brief pause forecast Friday then more of the same just re-located off Cape Mendocino Saturday (6/16) continuing through Monday. More sizeable windswell (by summertime standards) expected. A rapid fade forecast after that.
Tuesdays jetstream charts (6/12) for the South Pacific indicating a totally split flow pushing across the width of the ocean there with the southern branch moving over the 62S latitude at 110 kts with no troughs of interest noted. No hints of any support for surface level low pressure development. Over the next 72 hours through Friday (6/15) a ridge to build in the southern branch pushing well south over the Ross Ice Shelf and totally shutting down any potential for swell producing low pressure there. Beyond 72 hours more of the same is forecast, though the ridge is to lessen and actually start lifting north well east of the California swell window, favoring only the southern tip of South America through mid-next week. Otherwise a major ridge to continue pushing south over the Ross Ice Shelf and squashing any low pressure development over the greater South Pacific.
At the surface today dual high pressure systems at 1040 mbs remained in firm control of the upper reaches of the South-Central Pacific pushing south to the 60S latitude driving the storm track flat to the south. Weak low pressure was tracking east under the highs generating only limited 30-35 kt fetch all aimed directly towards southern South America. No support for any swell pushing north towards either Hawaii or California. Over the next 72 hours things to get much worse as the west-most of the pair of controlling high pressure systems surges south Wednesday (6/13) setting up a solid fetch of 35 kt winds blowing right into the Ross Ice Shelf and totally shutting down the South Pacific storm corridor through Thursday and hindering it severely there after. Some 40 kt fetch is to develop off South America Friday but aimed right at the coast there, with no energy pushing north towards either Hawaii or California. This is not an encouraging pattern.
Late Wednesday into early Thursday (6/7) a 960 mb low was pushing under New Zealand with much of it's fetch impacting the southern tip of the peninsula. An 18 hour fetch of 40-45 kt winds slid just east of there generating a short-lived area of 30 ft seas aimed well at Hawaii up the 200 degree great circle path. This was just enough to send limited swell northeast towards the Islands. A secondary fetch of 40 kts winds built in the same area early Friday (6/8) pushing a bit north and producing 29 ft seas.
Swell from these two systems expected to arrive in Hawaii starting Wednesday (6/13) with swell building to 2 ft @ 17 secs (3 ft faces) late. By Thursday AM (6/14) swell top start peaking near 3 ft @ 15 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces) with secondary energy arriving Friday (6/15) at the same size, or 3 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.5 ft faces). Swell starting to head down Saturday (6/16) from 3 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces). Swell Direction: 200 degrees
Background swell from this system to possibly limp into both North and South California Saturday (6/16) peaking Sunday with swell 2.5 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5 ft faces). 15 sec energy to continue at the same size Monday, then fading. Swell Direction: 213-218 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours a broad high pressure pattern to take hold of the Northeast Pacific with pressure 1036 mbs centered just east of the dateline and covering through the Gulf of Alaska ridging to the Pacific Northwest and California late Friday (6/15). North winds to again start building over Cape Mendocino Saturday through Monday (6/18) at 25-30 kts generating windswell north of Pt Conception. Trades to also continue over the Hawaiian Islands at 20 kts into Saturday (6/16) with local windswell likely, then fading as yet another weak low sets up in the Gulf of Alaska early next week. This low to possibly send another shot of 25 kt northwest winds towards the Pacific Northwest, but that's pure speculation at this point.
Beyond 72 hours high pressure at 1040 mbs to continue it's hold of the southern reaches of the Southeast Pacific continuing to direct all wind energy due east and out of the California and Hawaiian swell windows. But next Tuesday (6/19) the models suggest that the high pressure pattern to weaken under New Zealand with a weak primer low setting up just east of New Zealand. Though no winds of interest are forecast, a second more energetic system is to be pushing under New Zealand mid-next week with 40-45 kt winds building aimed somewhat up the great circle paths to California and Hawaii. Far from guaranteed, but this provides a glimmer of hope for the weeks ahead.
Details to follow...
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Jason-1 Satellite Data On-line and Improved!: Our Jason-1 satellite data was upgraded yet again Wednesday PM (6/6) and is now operating better than ever. We've added a feature that averages the data every 15 measurements on the local views and every 50 measurements on the global view (1 measurement every 3 nautical miles) and overlays the results onto the wave model chart. Both the single highest measurement on the chart and the highest 15 measurement average are posted at the bottom of each chart. This seems to work real well and compensates for the very spiky nature of the raw data coming off the satellite. So we now have an effective way to verify the accuracy (or lack of) the wave model output. See the data here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_alt.html
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table