On Sunday (6/19) Northern CA surf was shoulder to head high with calmer winds finally. South facing breaks were waist to chest high. Central California was waist to chest high and clean early. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were about waist high. The LA area southward into Orange County was waist high to chest high with best breaks to head head high. Southward to San Diego waves were waist to chest high with bigger sets at the best breaks. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was waist to chest high with a few head high sets at the best spots. The East Shore was thigh to waist high.
Swell #3S continue in Hawaii providing fun sized surf for all. California is starting to see some of this one too, mainly in the standout breaks in Southern CA (Orange County). The big swell of the past few days in California is all but gone. Fortunately southern hemi swell is to provide some level of interest for the near term future. After Swell #3S a new larger and longer period significant class swell is to follow affecting everywhere from Hawaii east to California and Central America. This one (Swell #4S) is in the water and on the way, providing something to look forward to. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
At the jetstream level on Sunday (6/19) the remnants of the strong trough that was off off Oregon were all but gone. Nothing else of interest was indicated (animation here). Over the next 72 hours the North Pacific jetstream is to be almost non-existent in the east. Some weak troughing and moderate but fleeting 110 kt winds are forecast in the West Pacific.
At the surface today persistent high pressure at 1028 mbs was well north of Hawaii in the Gulf of Alaska providing moderate northeast trades in Hawaii, but otherwise having no affect anywhere. (animation here). Over the next 72 hours extratropical low pressure is forecast to start developing mid-way between Japan and the dateline on Tuesday (6/21) with winds reaching near 40 kts aimed well at Hawaii for 24 hours before it reaches the dateline. It is to rapidly dissipate once it hits the dateline. If this occurs as forecast. Some 13 sec period windswell is possible for northwest facing shores.
More model data here
California Offshore Forecast
Sunday mornings local charts (6/19) indicate high pressure at 1030 mbs anchored in the Gulf of Alaska with the fading remnants of the Oregon storm still present off the Pacific Northwest at 1012 mbs. No swell producing winds indicated. High pressure is to get a decent foothold into Southern California late Monday (6/20) building northward as the upper remnants of the Oregon low fade out slowly. Building moderate northwest winds expected through the week with some semblance of the Cape Mendocino gradient starting to materialize late Thursday (6/23) but then quickly dying as another weak low pushes down the Canadian coast to the Pacific Northwest on Saturday (6/25). A tropical low is on the charts late in the workweek too tracking west south of Cabo San Lucas. But in general a fairly uneventful week forecast expected with no windwell producing fetch of interest forecast.
The 5 Day wind forecast is now included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.
On Sunday (6/19) the jetstream charts indicated a continuation of a broad but generally weak trough in the mid- South Pacific.There was no strong winds flowing through the trough, so no fuel to support storm development at the surface. Otherwise a strong ridge was off Chile with a second ridge building under New Zealand (animation here). Within 72 hours (Wednesday 6/22) the southern branch of the jet is to be driving into Antarctica over the width of the South Pacific with no support for storm development suggested.
At the surface today the remnants of Storm #4S are quickly fading with pressure up to 968 mbs with only some 30-35 kts fetch indicated, and that dying fast. Otherwise neither high pressure nor low pressure dominated, but no swell producing fetch or weather systems of interest were present (animation here). Over the next 72 hours high pressure well east of New Zealand is to build to 1032 mbs while tiny low develops well off the Chilean coast on Monday afternoon (6/20). Pressure initially 984 mbs with winds up to near 50 kts but only over a tiny area near 45S 116W aimed northeast. This fetch is to move quickly to the storms north quadrant by early Wednesday (6/22) taking aim on South America and pushing out of even the Southern CA swell window. Seas forecast up to 33 ft over an infinitesimally small area centered at 43S 115W Tuesday late AM (6/21) holding for 24 hours then fading. This system might provide limited swell potential for only the most exposed south facing breaks in Southern CA assuming it even develops as forecast.
More model data here
Small Tahiti Storm #3S
On Saturday PM (6/11) a new low was organizing south of Tahiti with pressure 972 mbs, starting to tap strong upper winds just north of it. Winds were building, confirmed at to 45-50 kts over a moderate 600 nmiles long area centered at 44S 153W aimed due north or about 20 degrees east of the 175 degree track to Hawaii and right up the 202 degree track to California. Seas were building.
By Sunday (6/12) pressure was up to 974 mbs with a long but thin 40-50 kt fetch covering an arc centered at 45S 153W in the storms west quadrant aimed due north. These winds were aimed right up the 175 degree track to Hawaii and also at California up the 201 degree path in the northern part of the arc. These winds were well to the north of normal and in close proximity to Tahiti and relatively close to Hawaii and the US west coast. Seas were modeled up to 30 ft centered at 40S 152W. By Sunday PM pressure was up to 978 mbs but winds continued at 40-50 kts centered at 45S 150W but over a smaller area aimed like before, right at Hawaii and 20 degrees of the path to California. Seas were modeled at 29 ft centered at 35S 147W.
By Monday AM (6/13) this system was fading fast with no swell producing fetch left. Residual seas of 29 ft were modeled at 43S 150W. This system was dead.
In all this system was generally uninspiring due to it's short life and limited fetch area. The big thing in it's favor though was it's rather northern position putting it in very close proximity to Tahiti and relatively close proximity to Hawaii (3447-3895 nmiles) and California (4423-4916 nmiles), Almost 2000 nmiles closer than it it was under New Zealand. This should significantly reduce the resulting swells travel distance and thereby reduce swell decay as it tracks north. On the other end of the spectrum, Tahiti was close to the core of the fetch (1600 nmiles) but not too close, allowing the swell to unwrap just enough to be decent with little decay. And local winds are to be favorable when the swell hits so maximum size potential can be realized. Perhaps a bit of warble, but not too bad. Hawaii will be next up with the fetch pushing right towards the Islands. Significant class potential is expected with most energy in the 14-15 sec range. Finally California to receive some fun sized surf, just under the significant class range, but well rideable just the same. Most energy is to be passing a bit west of California, but that should not be too bad.
Hawaii: Decent energy to continue into Monday (6/20) with swell 3.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces) and holding. On Tuesday (6/21) swell starting to fade at 3 ft @ 13 secs (3.5-4.0 ft faces), heading down later in the day. Residuals continuing into Wednesday (6/22) with period at 12 secs and fading. Swell Direction: 167-175 degrees
South CA: Swell to continue unabated Monday (6/20) into Tuesday (6/21) at a 3.3 ft @ 14 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces), then starting to fade late Tuesday. Continued declining size expected through early Thursday (6/23) as period drops slowly to 13 secs. Swell Direction: 201-206 degrees
North CA: Swell to continue unabated Monday (6/20) into Tuesday (6/21) at a 3.3 ft @ 14 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces), then starting to fade late Tuesday. Continued declining size expected through late Thursday (6/23) as period drops slowly to 13 secs. Swell Direction: 201-206 degrees
On Thursday AM (6/16) a new low was developing in the deep central South Pacific off the eastern Ross Ice Shelf in the trough present in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Pressure was 968 mbs with winds confirmed at 40-45 kts over a moderate area centered at 60S 165W aimed at California up the 200 degree path and 30 degrees east of the 185 degree path to Hawaii. These winds were imbedded in a broader area of 35-40 kts winds aimed the same way. Seas were building. In the evening pressure was down to 958 mbs with winds confirmed at 45-55 kts over a elongated area centered at 56S 156W aimed 20 degrees east of the 200 degree great circle path to California and 40 degree east of the 178 degree path to Hawaii. Seas were still not of interest yet but were on the increase.
On Friday AM (6/17) pressure was down to 956 mbs with winds 40-45 kts centered at 58S 158W aimed more to the north or 10 degrees west of the 198 degree path to California and right up the 180 degree path to HAwaii. Seas built to 30 ft centered at 148W 53S, mostly from the previous days fetch and a bit out of the Hawaiian swell window. In the evening pressure was down to 952 mbs with winds confirmed at 40-45 kts solid centered at 54S 150W over a moderate area aimed right up the 198 degree path to California and 30 degrees east of the 176 degree path to Hawaii. Seas held at 31 ft centered at 53S 151W over a moderate area imbedded in a broad area of lesser seas.
On Saturday AM (6/18) pressure was 950 mbs with winds confirmed at 45-50 kts centered at 58S 147W aimed right up the 195 degree path to California and 40 degrees east of the 175 degree path to Hawaii. Seas were modeled at 29 ft and holding over a broad area centered at 50S 147W. In the evening pressure was 948 mbs with winds holding at 45-50 kts centered at 58S 143W aimed like before. Seas were modeled at 32 ft centered at 58S 142W
On Sunday (6/19) this system is to rapidly deteriorate with no swell producing fetch forecast. Residual seas from the previous days fetch at 31 ft centered at 55S 139W and fading fast. No seas of winds of interest to be left by evening.
This system was interesting, though not as strong as originally hoped for. The short story is that everyone from Hawaii eastward to California down to Central America is to get some decent swell from this system. The broadest fetch was aimed best at California and targets to the south. But the most intense fetch covering a much smaller area was aimed more to the north right at Hawaii with lesser sideband energy backing it up. It was about normal distance from both the Islands (4329-4692 nmiles) and California too (5243-5621 nmiles). Good swell generation potential for all locations from Hawaii, Tahiti into California and Central America is expected.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival starting in the early morning hours of Friday (6/24) with size tiny and period at 17-18 secs, on the increase through the day. Swell peaking right at sunset at 4.3 ft @ 16 secs (6-7 ft faces with best breaks to near 9 ft). Swell to hold solid on Saturday (6/25) with swell 4.3 ft @ 15 secs holding through day (6.0-6.5 ft faces - best breaks to nearly 8 ft on the face). A bit of a decline expected on Sunday (6/26) with a little more period building underneath at 15-16 secs. Swell to slowly decline Monday and Tuesday (6/28) fading out totally late Wednesday. Swell Direction: 175-180 degrees
South California: Expect swell arrival starting Saturday sunrise (6/25) with period at 18 secs and size tiny but building through the day with swell at sunset 3.6 ft @ 17+ secs (6.0-6.5 ft faces - best breaks to near 8 ft faces). Peak size to hit near sunrise Sunday (6/26) with swell 3.9 ft @ 16 secs (6.0-6.5 ft faces - best breaks to near 8 ft faces). Another small pulse to build in on Monday morning (6/27) with period at 16-17 secs. Decent size to continue on Tuesday (6/28) with energy fading out into Wednesday (6/29) with period at 14 secs. Swell Direction: 192-200 degrees
North California: Expect swell arrival starting Saturday at sunset (6/25) with period at 18 secs and size tiny but building overnight. Solid size to be hitting near mid-morning Sunday (6/26) with swell near 3.6 ft @ 17 secs (6.0-6.5 ft faces - best breaks to near 8 ft faces), perhaps building a little more during the day. Size holding into Monday morning (6/27) with a new pulse building underneath after sunset at 16-17 secs. Solid size to continue on Tuesday (6/28) with energy fading out late Wednesday (6/29) as period turns to 14 secs. Swell Direction: 190-198 degrees
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Sundays models (6/19) indicated that beyond 72 hours in the upper levels weak troughiness is to continue over the West Pacific but the upper winds are to be very weak. No good support for storm development suggested and even that pattern to disintegrate by next weekend.
At the surface a second low is to follow Tuesdays extratropical system with winds to near 40 kts, but it's is to be smaller and shorter lived. No swell generation potential suggested. High pressure is to sink south and east increasing trades blowing into the Islands and improving the potential for local windswell, but nothing out of the ordinary. No other swell producing fetch forecast.
Sundays models (6/19) indicated that beyond 72 hours in the upper levels high pressure is to be in control. A very strong ridge is to build late in the workweek in the mid-South Pacific totally erasing any hope for storm development at lower levels of the atmosphere. Next Sunday (6/26) a glimmer of hope appears south of New Zealand as a small pinched trough is projected to be trying to build. But that is just a guess at this time.
At the surface high pressure to dominate in the mid-South Pacific at 1028 mbs ridging south to Antarctica. A series of lows are to try and push east under New Zealand but they are to get squashed as yet another high builds just east of New Zealand at 1020 mbs. No swell producing fetch forecast. There is some suggestions of low pressure building directly over New Zealand on Sunday (6/26) but it's way too early to say this will happen with any confidence.
Details to follow...
El Nino Forecast Updated: Check out all the latest indicators to get a handle on how the Summer and Fall seasons could unfold. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/enso/current.shtml
Big Florida Swell: A strong gale pushed off Cape Hatteras on 4/15 generating solid seas and a 70 ft rogue wave that hit a cruise ship before proceeded south to make solid waves for the Southeast US coast. Matt Kechele was there to catch it. Take a look here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/forecast/kechele.html
Stormsurf Weather Models Updated Again: Yes, we've been at it again this weekend getting another batch of weather models running. Global coverage is now provided for jetstream forecasts and surface pressure and winds. Zoomed in data is also available for such locations as the Mentawai Islands to Western Australia corridor, Tahiti, South America, Europe and Norwegian Sea. So now you can get local wind forecasts for these and more locations with one click. Take a look here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu.html
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table