Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
BUOY ROUNDUP
On
Monday, June 20, 2016
:
- Buoy 146 (Lanai): Seas were 2.3 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 10.1 secs from 175 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.3 ft @ 5.9 secs with swell 3.4 ft @ 6.1 secs from 272 degrees. Wind northwest 8-10 kts. Water temperature 66.0 degs. At Santa Barbara swell was 2.8 ft @ 6.6 secs from 261 degrees. At Santa Monica swell was 1.6 ft @ 14.0 secs from 201 degrees. Southward from Orange County to San Diego swell was 2.3 ft @ 13.9 secs from 187 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.4 ft @ 15.4 secs with southern hemi swell 2.1 ft @ 14.6 secs. Wind northwest 14-16 kts. Water temp 56.3 degs.
Notes
Buoy 46059, Hi-res Buoys
PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (6/19) in North and Central CA southern hemi swell was finally fading out after a week long run of solid but not over the top swell. Surf was maybe waist high at exposed breaks mainly coming from northerly local windswell. At Santa Cruz surf from southern hemi swell was still in the waist to maybe chest high range at top breaks on the sets and clean and lined up but weak. In Southern California up north surf was waist high and heavily texture from northwest winds and generally weak and mushy. Down south southern hemi sets were waist high with a few chest high peaks and textured. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was near flat with a few rare waist high.cgius sets from the southern hemi and clean conditions. The East Shore was thigh high and chopped from easterly trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
Meteorological Overview
A week long run of southern hemi swell focused from the southwest is finally wrapping up in California. But do not despair because another week long run of more south hemi swell, this time a bit more southerly angled is in the water and heading north. On Mon (6/13) when a new system pushed east under New Zealand with 38-40 ft seas holding while pushing into the Southeast Pacific on Wed (6/15). A second one developed directly in it's wake in the Southeast Pacific on Wed-Thurs (6/16) with 44-45 ft seas aimed east. And third one tracked under New Zealand on Wed-Thurs (6/16) tracking to the mid-Pacific with 42-43 ft seas aimed better northeast. And the strongest of the cycle developed in the Southeast Pacific on Fri-Sat (6/18) with up to 45 ft seas aimed slightly northeast. And yet one more small one is tracking under New Zealand on Sun-Mon (6/20) with 39 ft seas. And more but lesser activity is forecast for the Southeast Pacific later in the workweek. Quite a prolific storm cycle from the Southern Hemi.
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
North Pacific
Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday AM (6/14) no swell producing fetch is occurring and none is forecast for the next 72 hours.
The weaker version of the local California coastal pressure gradient was in affect on Sun (6/19) with high pressure ridging into the Pacific Northwest producing a fetch of 15-20 kt north winds over the North and Central coasts somewhat southward centered near Monterey Bay and expected to consolidate some on Monday (6/20) with north winds solid at 20 kts building in pockets mainly over the North Coast on Tues (6/21) to 25 kts, then starting to fade in coverage on Wednesday but still covering North and Central CA. Moderate short period north windswell possible (see QuikCASTs for surf details).
For Hawaii, east trades were focused a bit north of the Islands on Sunday (6/19) at 15 kts driven by high pressure north-northwest of the Islands resulting in some small windswell along easterly shores. This situation is to continue into Wed (6/22) with winds building to 20 kts, but again mainly north of the Islands and covering only a small area. No decent windswell to result.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Sunday (6/19) high pressure and the usual pressure gradient was in control of California coastal waters producing north winds at 15-20 kts over the north and central portions of the state making for poor surf conditions at exposed breaks. By Monday those winds to build to 20 kts and with pockets to 25 kts Tuesday and continuing unchanged through the weekend (Sun 6/26). Great for sailing, but not so much for surfing at exposed breaks. Southern CA to remain protected throughout the forecast period.
South Pacific
Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday AM (6/19) the southern branch of the jet was tracking east on the 55S latitude line with peak winds at 110 kts forming two weak troughs at 165W and 120W, offering only weak support for gale development. A weak ridge was trying to develop under New Zealand but not clearly defined yet. Over the next 72 hours the ridge is to push south but quickly dissolve on Mon (6/20) while the trough in the West Pacific moves east and builds some Tues (6/210 with 170 kts winds in it's apex mainly generated by the northern branch of the jet falling south and briefly merging with the southern branch. And 120-130 kts southwest winds to also be sweeping northeast under New Zealand feeding into this trough on Wed (6/22) with winds building to 150 kts building this trough to broad coverage centered at 140W (Southeast Pacific) and offering great support for gale development. Beyond 72 hrs the same trough is to hold while slowly easing east with a new pocket of 120 kts south winds pushing due north digging this trough out yet more into late Fri (6/24) offering good support for gale development for the Southeast Pacific. But at the same time a big ridge is to be building southeast of New Zealand pushing south to Antarctica shutting down gale potential for the coveted Southwest Pacific. And that ridge is to hold pushing south to 70S through Sun (6/26) as the trough in the far Southeast Pacific eventually moves nearly out of the California swell window and weakens.
Surface Analysis
On Sunday AM (6/19) swell associated with a series of gales that previously developed in the far Southwest Pacific had dissipated in Hawaii and were fading fast in California. These systems reached minimal significant class status as did a more southerly one 3 weeks earlier, bringing the significant class total to 5 so far this summer. And over the past week a new series of weather systems developed sweeping across the entire South Pacific starting Mon (6/13) and have produced 4 distinct swells that are tracking northeast. 3 more significant class swell are likely to result. Like the past storm series, the resulting swells are to be stacked up one behind the other in quick succession, and are to overlap with no distinct break between the swells. A high degree of precision is required to tease out the peak of each. Details of each below (see Gales #1-3).
Over the next 72 hours yet more swell production is forecast, but less energetic than what is already in the water.
On Sun AM a small system was tracking well south of the Tasman Sea producing 45 kt west winds and seas to 36 ft over a tiny area aimed east. In the evening 45 kt west winds to continue tracking east generating up to 38 ft seas at 59S 163E pushing reasonably up the great circle tracks to California (213 degs NCal and unshaodwed, 213 degs SCal and shadowed).but well east of the 200 degree track to Hawaii. On Monday AM (6/20) fetch is to be fading from 40 kts over a solid area aimed east with seas fading from 35 ft at 59.5S 179.5E (190 degs HI, 206 degs NCal and shadowed, 207 degs SCal and unshadowed). Fetch is to be fading from barely 40 kts in the evening with seas fading from 33 ft at 60S 170W. This system is to be gone after that. Small inconsistent swell to result for all locations.
Another gale is to develop in an upper trough in the Southeast Pacific on Mon (6/20) producing up to 45 kt west winds and 32 ft seas late over a small area at 48S 138.5W mainly targeting Chile. On Tues AM (6/21) a solid fetch of 50-55 kt south winds are to develop generating 34 ft seas at 51S 125W aimed north possibly producing south angled swell targeting California with westerly swell for Chile. In the evening all fetch is to wrap into the north quadrant of the storm at 50 kts aimed west targeting only Chile with 39 ft seas at 49S 115W and outside the CA swell window. A quick fade to follow. A pulse of south angled swell is possible for California into Mexico with more size from the southwest for Chile and Peru.
And yet another gale to follow Wed AM (6/22) directly in the same trough in the Southeast Pacific producing a broad area of 35-40 kt southwest winds with a patch to 45 kts and seas building from 35 ft at 47S 141.5W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (6/23) a secondary fetch of 50-55 kt south winds is to be tracking north fast generating 33-35 ft seas at 59S 138W. In the evening that fetch is to be fading from 45-50 kts still tracking north with seas 40 ft at 51S 131W targeting California and Mexico well. Something to monitor.
New Zealand Gale #1
On Sun PM (6/13) a gale was tracking east from under the Tasman Sea reaching a point south of New Zealand with a broad area of 40 kt west to west-northwest winds and a small embedded pocket to 45 kts generating seas at 32 ft at 52S 155E mostly north of the CA swell window and shadowed by NZ relative to Hawaii. By Mon AM (6/13) 50 kt winds were southeast of New Zealand blowing from the southwest with seas building to 39 ft over a modest sized area at 57.5S 172E aimed east (195 degs HI, 211 degs NCal and just barely clear of the Tahiti swell shadow but aimed a bit east of the great circle path to CA, 211 degs SCal and shadowed). 45-50 kt west to west-southwest winds tracked east holding solid in the evening with seas building to 39 ft at 58S 174W (188 degs HI and mostly bypassing the great circle tracks there, 205 degs NCal and shadowed, 206 degs SCal and well clear of the shadow). West-southwest fetch was fading Tues AM (6/14) from 40-45 kts with seas at 40 ft at 55.5S 160W (aimed well east of the 201 deg great circle track to NCal and the 203 deg track to SCal). Fetch regenerated in the evening at 45-50 kts aimed southwest with seas holding at 39 ft at 54S 144W (192 degs NCal, 195 degs SCal but aimed well east of those paths). On Wed AM (5/15) fetch faded from 45 kts over a small area aimed southwest with seas 39 ft at 53S 133W (188 degs NCal, 190 degs SCal). The gale to fade from there. More swell is likely for HI and CA but not with as much size as one would guess given the strong easterly fetch heading.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sun (6/19) pushing 1.2 ft @ 20 secs late (2.0-2.5 ft) . Swell peaking Mon (6/20) at 1.5 ft @ 18 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals fading Tues (6/21) from 1.2 ft @ 16 secs (2 ft). Swell Direction: 195-200 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (6/21) building to 2.5 ft @ 20 secs late (5.0 ft with sets to 6.0 ft). Swell peaking on Wed (6/22) late AM at 3.2 ft @ 18-19 secs (6.0 ft with sets to 7.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs AM (6/23) from 3.2 ft @ 17-18 secs (5.6 ft with sets to 7.0 ft). Swell Direction: 197-200 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (6/21) building to 1.6 ft @ 21 secs late (3.0 ft with sets to 4.0 ft). Swell peaking on Wed (6/22) afternoon at 2.5 ft @ 19 secs (4.7 ft with sets to 6.0 ft). Swell holding Thurs AM (6/23) at 2.5 ft @ 17-18 secs (4.3 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 197-200 degrees
Swell #1.5
On Wed AM (6/15) a compact storm developed in the Central Pacific forming directly in the wake and behind New Zealand Gale #1 (above) generating a tiny area of 60 kt west winds tracking quickly east with seas to 44 ft over a tiny area at 55S 155W. In the evening a small area of 55 kt west winds moved into the Southeast Pacific generating 45 ft seas at 53S 138W (aimed east of the 192 deg path to NCal and the 194 deg path to SCal). On Thurs AM (6/16) the gale was fading with winds dropping from 45 kts from the west tracking fast east with 42 ft seas at 51S 123W (181 degs NCal, 182 degs SCal aimed mostly east of any path north). In the evening this system was out of the swell window relative to California focused only on Chile. More south angled sideband swell to result merging directly with swell from the New Zealand Gale above.
Southern CA: Swell arrival expected on Wed early AM (6/22) with period 22 secs building to 1.5 ft @ 20 secs at sunset (3.0 ft with sets to 4.0 ft). Swell continues on Thurs (6/23) at 2.0 ft @ 19 secs with period dropping to 18 secs late (3.7 ft with sets to 4.6 ft). Swell fading Fri AM (6/24) from 2.2 ft @ 17 secs 3.7 ft with sets to 4.7 ft) and getting lost in other energy. Swell Direction: 191-199 degrees
North CA: Swell arrival expected on Wed AM (6/22) with period 22 secs building to 1.5 ft @ 20 secs at sunset (3.0 ft with sets to 4.0 ft). Swell continues on Thurs (6/23) building to 2.0 ft @ 19 secs later (3.7 ft with sets to 4.6 ft). Swell fading Fri AM (6/24) from 2.0 ft @ 17 secs (3.4 ft with sets to 4.7 ft) and getting lost in other energy. Swell Direction: 191-199 degrees
Swell #2
Also on Tues PM (6/14) a storm with 45-50 kt west winds was tracking south of the Tasman Sea. By Wed AM (6/15) 45-50 kt west winds were just under New Zealand generating 42 ft seas at 55S 163E (barely in the 201 degs path to Hawaii, 219 degs NCal and SCal and unshadowed by Tahiti). In the evening 45 kt southwest winds were over a solid area producing 40 ft seas at 53S 180W (193 degs HI, 212 degs NCal and barely unshadowed by Tahiti, 213 degs SCal and well shadowed). On Thurs AM (6/16) 45 kt southwest winds continued east loosing coverage generating 39 ft seas at 52S 165.5W (185 degs HI, 206 degs NCal and in the middle of the Tahiti swell shadow, 208 degs SCal and unshadowed). In the evening fetch rebuild to 50 kts from the southwest aimed better northeast and lifting northeast with seas to 43 ft at 50S 154W (179 degs HI, 200 degs NCal and unshadowed, 203 degs SCal and unshadowed). Fetch to be fading Fri AM (6/17) from 40 kts with seas fading from 38 ft at 45S 144W (196 degs NCal, 199 degs SCal). This system dissipated after that. Possible solid swell to result for California down into Central America and South America with sideband swell for Hawaii.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Wed AM (6/22) 1.6 ft @ 18 secs (2.9 ft with sets to 3.5 ft) and period falling to 17 secs later. Swell fading Thurs AM (6/23) from 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.4 ft with sets to 3.0 ft). Swell fading Fri AM (6/24) from 1.3 ft @ 14 secs (2 ft). Swell Direction: 185-200 degs focused on 195 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/23) early with period 21-22 secs and building through the day to 3.0 ft @ 20 secs late (6.0 ft with sets to 7.5 ft). Swell building more overnight peaking Fri late AM (6/24) at 3.6 ft @ 18 secs (6.5 ft with sets to 8.1 ft). Period down to 17 secs late. Swell still solid Sat AM (6/25) 4.0 ft @ 16 secs early (6.3 ft with sets to 7.9 ft). period down to 15 secs late. Residuals on Sunday (6/26) at 2.3 ft @ 14 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 199-208 degrees focused on 203 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/23) early with period 21-22 secs and building through the day to 2.5 ft @ 20-21 secs late (5.1 ft with sets to 6.4 ft). Swell building more overnight peaking Fri afternoon (6/24) at 3.3 ft @ 18 secs (6.0 ft with sets to 7.5 ft). Swell still solid Sat AM (6/25) 3.0 ft @ 16-17 secs early (5.0 ft with sets to 6.2 ft).Residuals on Sunday (6/26) at 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 197-206 degrees focused on 201 degrees
Swell #3
A third storm developed southeast of New Zealand on Fri AM (6/17) with 45 kt southwest winds over a tiny area and seas building from 32 ft at 54S 168.5W. In the evening southwest winds built to 55 kt aimed northeast with seas building fast to 44 ft at 52S 151.5W (199 degs NCal and unshadowed, 202 degs SCal). 50 kt south winds held into Sat AM (6/18) with seas building to 45 ft at 49.5S 141W (east of the HI swell window, 192 degs NCal, 195 degs SCal). Fetch was fading from 45 kts from the south in the evening pushing well north with seas still solid at 44 ft at 48S 131W aimed northeast (188 degs NCal, 190 degs SCal). Fetch and seas faded from from there Sun AM with winds 45 kts from the west and seas 39 ft at 47S 122W (182 degs SCal, 180 degs NCal). Solid swell possible for California and larger down into Mexico, Central America and Peru.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival Fri AM (6/24) with period 23 secs (swell 2 ft - waves 4.6 ft with sets to 5.8 ft) and building through the day, pushing 3.0 ft @ 20-21 secs late (6.2 ft with sets to 7.7 ft). Swell peaking Sat AM (6/25) at 3.3 ft @ 19 secs (6.2 ft with sets to 8.8 ft) and holding with period down to 18 secs late. Swell still solid on Sun AM (6/26) at 3.9 ft @ 16-17 secs (6.6 ft with sets to 8.3 ft) and steady through the day. Swell Direction: 182-202 degs focused on 195 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival Fri AM (6/24) with period 23 secs (swell 1.6 ft - waves 3.7 ft with sets to 4.6 ft) and building through the day, pushing 2.1 ft @ 22 secs late (4.5 ft with sets to 5.7 ft). Swell peaking midday Sat AM (6/25) at 2.5 ft @ 20 secs (5.0 ft with sets to 6.3 ft) and holding with period down to 19 secs late. Swell still solid on Sun AM (6/26) at 2.6 ft @ 17 secs (4.4 ft with sets to 5.5 ft) and steady through the day. Swell Direction: 180-199 degs focused on 192 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
North Pacific
Beyond 72 hours the local California pressure gradient is to hold on Thurs (6/23) producing north winds at 20-25 kts along the North and Central Coasts continuing on Friday then expanding northward Sat (6/25) still at 20-25 kts , then fading some on Sun (6/260 at 20 kts but still coverage a large area encompassing almost the entire US West Coast. Modest raw north short period windswell to continue.
For Hawaii the shallow fetch of east winds north of the Islands is to continue into Thurs (6/23) offering minimal support for windswell development then start moving west with no fetch remaining in the Hawaiian swell window. Windswell dropping off.
South Pacific
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
More details to follow...
Transition to La Nina Continues Stalled (for the moment)
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equatorial Pacific it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slack if not an outright reversal of trade winds and enhanced precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the.cgianet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to .cgiit resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).Overview: The 2014-2016 El Nino is fading out. La Nina is emerging.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Sat (6/18) east winds were over the entire equatorial Pacific but weak over the southern Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA). Anomalies were generally neutral except weak westerly in the southern KWGA extending east east to 110W.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): Weak east anomalies were over the KWGA and are to hold if not build into 6/24, then fading almost neutral by 6/26 in the KWGA.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: As of 6/18 a modest Inactive MJO signal was over the equatorial Pacific. The Statistic model projects this Inactive Phase weakening while easing east with the Active Phase of the MJO currently in the Indian Ocean and easing into the West Pacific 2 weeks out. The dynamic model depicts the same thing, only with the Active Phase fading while tracking east 2 weeks out. No enhancement of the jetstream is expected from the MJO per these models.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/18) The ECMF model indicates a moderate Active MJO signal was present in the Indian Ocean. The forecast projects the Active Phase migrating to the Maritime Continent and then the dateline 2 weeks out at modest strength and fading. The GEFS model depicts the Active Phase making it to the Maritime Continent then collapsing on 6/19.
40day Upper Level Model: (6/19) The Inactive Phase of the MJO was over the East Pacific and fading. An Active Phase to develop in the West Pacific 6/29 easing east into Central America on 7/24. A new Inactive Phase of the MJO is to push into the West Pacific 7/19 moving east from there.
CFS Model beyond 1 week (850 mb wind): This model suggests a weak Inactive Phase of the MJO was moving over the dateline region neutral anomalies in.cgiay offering no support for enhancing the jetstream. The model depicts a weak MJO wind pattern is to hold for the foreseeable future with no anomalies forecast 6/24-9-17. The low pass filter suggests the remnants of El Nino are shifting east and are now south of Hawaii (rather than in the KWGA) and offering nothing to enhance the jetstream and are to dissipate (gone) south of California by 8/28.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/19) Actual temperatures are building in the west and fading in the east daily. A pocket of 30 deg temps were building in the far West Pacific with the 28 deg isotherm line steady now at 157W. No El Nino subsurface anomalies remain. Warm anomalies at +1 degs rule from the West Pacific to 150W with weak negative anomalies between there and 130W. Neutral anomalies are east of there. Cool subsurface waters are at depth erupting between 130W-150W with -3 degs anomalies reaching east down 100 meters to 132W (steady). The Kelvin Wave pipeline has been r.cgiaced with a cold river rushing east. But it appears to be not reaching Ecuador, but rather is westward di.cgiaced. Per the hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/12 a weak pocket of +0.5 deg anomalies is building from 160W and points westward. Cool waters at 3-4 degs below normal were under the entire width of the equator, undercutting any residual warm water above it and forming a bubble near 140W and upwelling from 120-150W. La Nina has begun.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/18) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicates cooler than normal water continues over the equator region with negative anomalies along the coast of Peru (shrinking some compared to days previous) pushing north and then extending west from Ecuador over the Galapagos building west to 157W peaking at -1.0 degs in pockets over that area. La Nina is firmly in control of surface waters, though remnant El Nino warm water is 3 degs north and south of the equator. No warm water remains anywhere in the Nino regions on the equator.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/18): A cooling trend is developing along Chile and Peru with cooler than normal waters from the Galapagos west out to 160W, stronger in the past 5 days. The mirror image cooler trend that redeveloped in the Atlantic on 6/9 has dissipated and has been r.cgiaced by warmer than normal waters. Temps are holding reasonably warm along the California coast in spite of high pressure and northwest winds in control in that area. The PDO warm pool is holding solidly from Oregon out to Hawaii and west from there to the Philippines.
Hi-res Overview: (6/13) The El Nino signal is dissipating. A clear La Nina cool water pool is tracking from Ecuador but is weaker today than days past. A generalized pattern of +1-2 deg above normal temps remains 3 degs north and south of the equator and west of 160W. Cooler water is over the dateline in the North Pacific with warm water off the Pacific Northwest streaming over Hawaii looking very much like the classic Active PDO pattern.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/14) Today's temps were falling hard down to -0.076 degs.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: Today (6/19) temps are building back into positive territory at +0.551 degs due to the slackening of the La Nina cool pool. This is likely just a temporary pulse.
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Comparing Stongest El Ninos in the last 50 year - ERSSTv4 'centered' data
Pacific Counter Current: As of 6/6 the current was moderately but continuously from the east on the equator from 90W to 150E. Anomalies were stronger still from the east over the same area. There were no pockets of west anomalies indicated. La Nina is firmly entrenched based on this data, which is normal for this point in the El Nino lifecycle.
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/19) indicates temps on a steady downward trajectory falling to -0.3 degs early July and continuing down till Sept at -1.0 degs and holding through Dec, then slowly rising in Jan 2017. This is solid La Nina territory but it's up from the -1.5 and -1.25 degs indicated even a few weeks ago.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-June Plume depicts temps falling steadily from here forward, down to -0.7 by Sept then holding there to March. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Deco.cgiing (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (6/17): The daily index was positive at +15.50. The 30 day average was rising at +1.55, transitioning from negative to positive for the first time in 2 years on 5/27. The 90 day average was rising from -6.93. El Nino was still evident in the 90 day average, but even that will soon be a distant memory.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation): (6/19) Today's value was falling some from -0.18. It peaked on 3/12 at +1.57 then fell until 4/14, when it started rising again peaking 4/23 at +1.12. But it has been falling steadily ever since.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO continues solid. Per NOAAs index recent values (Jan-May) have been +0.79, +1.23, +1.55, +1.60, and +1.45. The Washington EDU index for the Jan-May period indicates +1.54, +1.75, +2.40, +2.62 and +2.35. April's value was the highest since 1941. The PDO turned from a 6 year negative run (2008-2013) in early 2014 and has been mostly above +1.5 all of 2015. Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data suggests that could be a real possibility. We've been in the negative phase since 1998 through at least 2013 (15 years). By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
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External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Local Interest
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Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table
