BUOY ROUNDUP
On
Sunday, June 24, 2018
:
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance): Seas were 2.4 ft @ 5.7 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 5.8 secs from 137 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.4 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 15.2 secs from 150 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southeast at 10-14 kts. Water temperature 65.1 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 0.7 ft @ 15.0 secs from 187 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.5 ft @ 15.7 secs from 201 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 1.6 ft @ 15.6 secs from 210 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.2 ft @ 15.0 secs from 185 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.7 ft @ 10.0 secs with northwest windswell 3.9 ft @ 9.4 secs from 319 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 16-20 kts. Water temp 54.1 degs.
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (6/24) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing surf at waist high and fully whitecapped and unrideable from strong south winds. Protected breaks were waist high on the sets and textured early from south wind. At Santa Cruz surf was flat to maybe thigh high and clean and weak. In Southern California up north surf was flat to maybe thigh high and weak and warbled from south wind. In North Orange Co southern hemi swell was producing waves at waist to maybe chest high on the bigger sets and heavily textured from south wind. South Orange Country's best breaks were chest to almost head high on the bigger sets and cleaner but still a bit warbled from south wind. In North San Diego surf was waist to maybe chest high on the bigger peaks on the sets and textured with south warble again running through it. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was flat to thigh high and clean. The East Shore was getting no meaningful east windswell.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (6/24) a very south angled swell was hitting exposed breaks in California having been previously generated in the far Southeast Pacific on Thurs-Fri (6/15) with 30 ft seas aimed northeast. No swell of interest was hitting Hawaii. The tropics are quiet. A gale developed Wed-Thurs (6/21) southeast of New Zealand lifting northeast with 33 ft seas aimed northeast. Not much to result from it. And nothing is on the charts for the next week targeting either California or Hawaii other than windswell. We're moving deep into a swell drought.
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
North Pacific
Overview
Surface Analysis
On Sunday AM (6/24) no swell of interest was in the water nor being generated in the North Pacific other than local windswell.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast other than windswell.
Gulf Low
A late season low pressure system built in the Northern Gulf of Alaska on Sat (6/23) with 30 kt northwest winds and seas to 16 ft at 47N 148W. Winds faded in the evening from 25 kts with seas fading from 17 ft at 48N 144W. Small 11 sec period windswell is possible for exposed breaks in North and Central CA
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues AM (6/26) at 3.6 ft @ 11 (4.0 ft) but buried in local north windswell. Swell Direction: 305 degrees.
Windswell Forecast
California: On Sun (6/24) high pressure at 1032 mbs was 1200 nmiles north of Hawaii and it was ridging east towards California producing the usual summer time pressure gradient and north winds at 25 kts early limited only to waters off Cape Mendocino. Windswell production was fading but not out. And an eddy flow (south winds) had set set up along the Central Coast building up to Pt Arena. On Mon (6/25) the gradient is to fall south some with 25+ kt north winds pushing down to Bodega Bay with windswell building some down into Central CA with an eddy flow over Central CA mainly early. The gradient is to build some Tues (6/26) while lifting north with north winds up to 30 kts over North CA reaching south to Pt Arena with a 15 kt north flow along the coast down to Morro Bay resulting in more steady but junky windswell. More of the same is forecast on Wed (6/27). See QuikCASTs for details.
Hawaii: On Sun (6/24) easterly fetch was rebuilding and expected to fill the entire area between California to Hawaii at 15 kts or more with windswell production capacity building some. On Mon (6/25) more of the same is forecast with a solid fetch of 15 kt east winds extending from California over the Hawaiian Islands and with pockets to 20 kts mainly well off the CA coast and covering a broader area with windswell on the increase. The pattern is to hold on Tues (6/26) but with winds down to mainly just 15 kts with windswell holding or fading just slightly. No change is forecast on Wed (6/27) with steady 15 kt east to northeast winds from CA to HI. See QuikCASTs for details.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Sunday AM (6/24) north winds to be 25 kts over Cape Mendocino with a well developed eddy flow (south winds) for all of Central CA and up to almost Pt Arena. Monday (6/25) the eddy flow is to weaken for Central CA with north winds building to 25-30 kts for all of North CA down to Bodega Bay. Tues (6/26) north winds to be 25 kts for Cape Mendocino down to Pt Arena with north winds 15 kts down to Morro Bay. Wednesday (6/27) north winds to hold at 25 kts over North CA down to Pt Arena with north winds 15 kts down to Pt Conception. More of the same on Thurs (6/28) with north winds 25 kts from Cape Mendocino down to Half Moon Bay and 20 kt north winds down to Pt Conception. Fri (6/29) more of the same is expected but with north winds building to 30 kts over all of North CA later. Sat (6/30) north winds to hold at 30 kts over all of North CA but with a developing eddy flow (south winds) over all of Central CA up to Pt Reyes later. Sunday (7/1) north winds to continue at 30 kts for North CA down to Bodega Bay with an eddy flow south of there.
South Pacific
Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (6/24) the southern branch of the jetstream was pushing north up into the Tasman Sea forming trough but weak with winds only 80 kts feeding up into it offering minimal support for gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere there. East of New Zealand the jetstream was falling gently southeast the whole way below Southern Chile with no troughs indicated an no support for gale development suggested. Over the next 72 hours through Wed (6/27) the trough is to slowly ease east with it's apex reaching a point 450 nmiles east of New Zealand with winds building to 110 kts feeding up into it perhaps offering some support for gale development there. West of there a gentle ridge is to still be in play pushing the jet south to just off the coast of Antarctica and suppressing gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs (6/28) the trough is to continue easing east but starting to pinch off later while still being fed by 110 kts winds offering some support for gale development. On Fri (6/29) additional wind energy is to start lifting up into the trough at 110 kts but also starting to increase the troughs eastward momentum and by Sat (6/30) the trough is to be over the far Southeast Pacific and fading with support for gale formation fading too. A solid ridge is to be east of there and a generalized zonal flow is to be under New Zealand running east on the 60S latitude line offering no support for gale development and the zonal flow is to build east nearly filling the entire South Pacific on Sun (7/1). A pretty quiet pattern for the South Pacific.
Surface Analysis
On Sunday (6/24) small swell from a gale previously on the eastern edge of the California swell window was hitting California (see Southeast Pacific Gale below). Also another gale developed southeast of New Zealand providing some odds for small swell to result (see Southwest Pacific Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell production is forecast in the South Pacific.
A gale moved into the Tasman Sea on Sat AM (6/23) with 29 ft seas at 43.5S 150.5E aimed northeast. It tracked east in the evening with 29 ft seas at 47.5S 155.5E and then fell southeast on Sun AM (6/24) with 29 ft seas at 50.5S 165E. The gale is to dissipate thereafter. Limited swell possible for Fiji.
Southeast Pacific Gale
On Thurs PM (6/14) a gale started building in the far Southeast Pacific with 40 kt southwest winds and seas building to 29 ft at 55S 137.5W. On Fri AM (6/15) fetch was fading from 40 kts and on the edge of the CA swell window with seas 29 ft at 50.5S 125W aimed northeast. This system moved east of the CA swell window after that. But a second fetch started developing right behind it on Fri PM (6/15) with 45 kt southwest winds and seas building to 28 ft at 55S 128.5W. On Sat AM (6/16) 50 kt southwest winds were east of the SCal swell window with 35 ft seas at 53S 115.5W, again east of the SCal swell window. Low odds of small sideband swell radiating north towards SCal. This system is to be east of the CA swell window after that but is to continue building targeting mainly Southern Chile.
Southern CA: Swell fading on Sun (6/24) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (6/25) from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 189 degrees Secondary energy to arrive on Mon (6/25) at 1.6 ft @ 16 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell holding on Tues (6/26) at 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading after that. Swell Direction: 175 degrees
North CA: Swell fading on Sun (6/24) from 1.6 ft @ 15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (6/25) from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 187 degrees Secondary energy to arrive on Mon (6/25) at 1.4 ft @ 16 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell holding on Tues (6/26) at 1.5 ft @ 15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell fading after that. Swell Direction: 173 degrees
Southwest Pacific Gale
On Tues PM (6/19) a modestly broad fetch of 40 kt southwest winds started developing just south of New Zealand tracking northeast with seas building. On Wed AM (6/20) winds built to 45 kts solid aimed northeast with seas building to 33 ft at 58S 175W 9208 degs CA and shadowed by Tahiti). In the evening fetch was racing east-northeast and fading from 40 kts with seas 30 ft at 54.5S 162W aimed east-northeast (204 degrees and unshadowed in SCal). On Thurs AM (6/21) secondary fetch was fading from 30-35 kts from the northeast with seas fading from 26 ft at 50S 162W. In the evening no fetch or seas of interest are forecast. Something to monitor.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Wed (6/27) building to 1.6 ft @ 17-18 secs late(2.5-3.0 ft). Swell holding on Thurs (6/28) at 2.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell continues on Fri (6/29) at 2.4 ft @ 14 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Residuals fading on Sat (6/30) from 1.9 ft @ 13 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (6/29) building to 1.3 ft @ 18 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). On Sat (6/30) swell is to build to 1.9 ft @ 16 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell continues on Sun (7/1) at 2.1 ft @ 16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 208 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (6/30) building to 1.8 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell continues on Sun (7/1) at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 208 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
North Pacific
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
Windswell Forecast
California: On Thurs (6/28) the gradient is to fall South slightly with 25 kt north winds between Cape Mendocino and Pt Reyes and 20 kt north winds down to Pt Conception resulting in more junky north windswell for all of North and Central CA. Fri (6/29) the gradient is to build solidly later with 25-30 kt north winds covering all of North CA and 20+ kt north winds over all of Central CA with increasing but junky north windswell in control. Saturday (6/30) the gradient is to build more while lifting north some with 30-35 kt north winds over all of North CA with an eddy flow starting to develop from Pt Reyes southward. Larger and somewhat cleaner windswell for Central CA possible. More of the same is expected on Sun (7/1) but with north winds 30 kts the eddy flow well developed for Central CA up to Pt Reyes.
Hawaii: On Thurs (6/28) high pressure is to be falling south some with easterly fetch still 15 kts between Hawaii and CA but covering less as broad an area and windswell likely fading some. Fri (6/29) the fetch is to break up in close proximity to the Hawaiian Islands but remain from California half way to Hawaii resulting in little odds for windswell production relative to Hawaii. More of the same is forecast on Sat (6/30). Sunday (7/1) easterly fetch at 15 kts is to start creeping west again reaching to within 350 nmiles of Hawaii perhaps resulting in some increase in windswell production.
South Pacific
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
More details to follow...
MJO/ENSO Forecast
Kelvin Wave Eruption Continues
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and have not stopped, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and was building over equatorial waters in early June, suggesting the demise of La Nina.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2018 (California & Hawaii) = 4.0
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Wed (6/20) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific but weakening starting south of Hawaii and light over the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were neutral from the Galapagos to the dateline then weakly westerly in the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (6/24) Light west anomalies were over the entire Eastern Pacific into the eastern KWGA from 160E and points east of there with modest east anomalies from 150E and point west of there. The forecast suggests modest to moderate east anomalies are to hold over the west KWGA and building east to the dateline through the end of the forecast period 7/1. In short, a Inactive/Dry MJO signal looks to be holding for the bulk of the KWGA for next week.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (6/23) An weak Inactive/Dry MJO signal was over the West KWGA. The statistical model depicts the Inactive/Dry MJO signal is to slowly push east while fading and gone 15 days out. The dynamic model depicts the same thing but with the Inactive Phase stronger at 8 than the statistical model suggests. but for the most part the models are in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/24) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was weak over Africa and is to fade while tracking steadily east for the next 15 days, reaching the Maritime Continent 15 days out. The GEFS model depicts the same thing but with the MJO making little eastward progress and over the Western Indian Ocean 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model: (6/24) This model depicts an Inactive/Dry MJO signal was over the far West Pacific/KWGA. It is to track east steadily reaching Central America 7/14. A weak version of the Active/Wet Phase is to develop in the West Pacific 7/4 easing east to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 8/3. A new Inactive Phase is to start building over the West Pacific on 7/24 pushing to the Central Pacific at the end of the model run on 8/3.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/23) East anomalies are to hold over the the western half of KWGA building east ad filling the KWGA on 7/1 before quickly dissipating on 7/5. But by July 6 no east anomalies are forecast in the KWGA with west anomalies building and filling the KWGA and holding through the end of the model run on 7/21. It almost looks like a broad non-stop westerly wind burst is to set up fueling El Nino starting 7/7 (or a little less than 2 weeks from now). Interesting.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/24) This model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was gone over the KWGA with west anomalies over the dateline and points east of there with light east anomalies in the KWGA from 155E and points east of there. The Inactive Phase is to take control 6/25-7/29 but with west anomalies starting to build from 165E and retrograding west filing the KWGA 7/18 and beyond even though the Inactive Phase is to be in control. The Active Phase is to follow 7/28 through 9/9 with west anomalies building solid in the KWGA and strong 8/4-9/1 indicative of a Westerly Wind Burst (WWB). The Inactive Phase is to start building on 9/7-9/21 but with west anomalies holding in the KWGA, just weaker than previously. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias is fully in control of the KWGA reaching east to 145W and forecast to hold if not ease east to 135W on 7/21 and 130 at the end of the model run also building from 2 contour lines to 3 solidly starting 7/12 and holding thereafter. This is good news for the coming Fall-Winter season. The high pressure bias is limited to an area south of California and shrinking at the end of the model run and moving inland over California. The La Nina bias is gone. The expectation is that the atmosphere and ocean will begin to be coupled 3 months after the start of the transition or on 8/8 (low pressure bias officially filled the KWGA starting on 5/8) in a more favorable configuration to support storm production in the Pacific.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/21) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs reaching east to 165E. The 28 deg isotherm line is easing east some again today after previously being stationary on the dateline last winter. It was moving east to 165W on 5/15, then to 160W on 5/22 then to 154W on 6/19 and now to 150W today from the surface to 75 meters deep. The 24 deg isotherm was stable at 115 meters deep at 140W and 75 meters deep at 120W rising to 40 meters into Ecuador. Anomaly wise in the East Pacific, warm waters from a Kelvin Wave are focused in the East Pacific at depth. Warm anomalies were moving east from 135W and points east of there at +3.0 degs down 100 meters pushing and reaching east past the Galapagos. These waters are starting to breach the surface from 135W and points east of there. It appears the Kelvin Wave is gaining eastward momentum and erupting at the oceans surface. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/17 depicts a large Kelvin Wave starting at 145W building to +3.5 degs extending unbroken to the east to Ecuador and breaching the surface between 100W-145W. No residual cool water from La Nina are indicated. And more warm water was pushing east from 140E reaching over the dateline and joining the existing Kelvin Wave. A river of warm water was effectively flowing east from the Maritime Continent eastward into the Pacific. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/17) Positive anomalies were solid from the West Equatorial Pacific at +5 cms reaching from the Maritime Continent north of New Guinea then east to the Ecuador with no breaks with anomalies in pockets at +5-10 cms. No negative anomalies were indicated. The La Nina cool pool is gone.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/23) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate weak localized pockets of cool anomalies along the immediate coast of Peru and very shallow and weakening as compared to days past. But of more significance was a building area of warm water erupting on the oceans surface on the equator from the Galapagos west to 160W. This area had more coherence today and almost completely filling the equator from 90W to the dateline. A broad area of warming was also filling the area south of Mexico and out to the dateline. The remnants of the La Nina cool pool were south of the equator between 115W-170W and south of 4S and all but gone.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/23): Pockets of warming were scattered along the equator from Ecuador to the dateline and building some compared to the last report. 2 pockets of cooling were indicated over the Galapagos and another at 100W. Generic spotty cooling previously off the immediate Peru coast was gone and pockets of spotty warming were no present.
Hi-res Overview: (6/23) A weak area of cool water was present along Chile and Peru. Otherwise warm water was building on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos and west from there to the dateline from 4S up to 20N and building in coherence. The only cool water was in the fading remnant pocket from La Nina limited to an area south of the equator starting at 4S between 115W-165W and steadily loosing coverage.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/24) Today's temps were rising at -0.890, down from -0.428 on 6/7, up from -0.819 on 5/22, and that down from a recent peak rising to +0.459 on 5/13. This is part of a larger rising trend that started 4/10 indicative of the collapse of La Nina. Overall temps had been steadily marching upwards since late December.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/24) Today temps were falling some today at +0.212 down from +0.342 on 6/21 after falling from +0.344 on 6/15. It appears the trend is moving positive and the first positive peak in over a year. Previously temps were -0.266 on 6/2, -0.427 on 5/12 after having reached up to -0.254 degs on 5/1. Temps have been steadily rising since 3/27 when they were down at -1.2 degs.
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CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/24) The forecast depicts temps bottomed out at -0.75 in Nov 2017 and have been slowly rising since, up to -0.5 in mid-March and neutral in June. The forecast calls for a steady increase from here forward with temp pushing up to +0.45 degs on July 1 and rising in early Oct to +1.05 degs and +1.2 degs in Nov then slowly fading from there but still above the +1.0 range into March 2019. This suggests La Nina is gone and that perhaps El Nino is to build through the Summer and Fall of 2018. Most other models are also suggesting a possible turn to minimal weak El Nino conditions by late Fall.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-June Plume depicts temps at +0.3 degs in late June and are to slowly rise from here forward, to +0.6 in August and +0.8 in October and +1.0 in January holding there. See chart here - link. It looks like La Nina is fading out and a weak El Nino might develop. The CFSv2 is in the low end of that pack.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (negative is good, positive bad) (6/24): The daily index was rising some today at -0.35. The 30 day average was falling today at -4.43 suggesting the Inactive Phase of the MJO was fading. The 90 day average was falling some at +0.70 suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was holding in the atmosphere or biased weakly towards La Nina but even that bias was fading. This is expected for a month or two more before falling into steady negative territory.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (6/24) Today the index was rising some at -0.35. Recent points of interest in reverse chronological order are: -1.04 on 6/5, -0.70 on 5/20, -0.60 on 5/17, -0.36 on 5/11 and -0.38 on 5/10, -0.35 on 4/26, -1.02 on 4/5, -1.13 on 3/27. The trend is upward but still less than a -0.33 reading in late Feb. The trend suggests La Nina is not gone, but fading steadily. This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina events. The goal is to have it rise to at least -0.5 before a significant change could be suggested.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: April 2017=+0.53, May=+0.29, June=+0.21, July= -0.50, Aug= -0.62, Sept = -0.25, Oct= -0.61, Nov = -0.45, Dec= -0.13, Jan 2018=+0.29, Feb= -0.10, Mar= -0.51, April = -0.85, May =-0.61. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.77, Feb = +0.70, Mar = +0.74, April=+1.12, May=+0.88, June=+0.79, July=+0.10, Aug=+0.09, Sept = +0.32, Oct=+0.05, Nov = +0.15, Dec = +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar = -0.05. No negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
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External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Local Interest
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Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table
